Plugging holes in the 6,7,8 “Can’t Lose” Craps Strategy
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- čas přidán 28. 08. 2024
- One of the biggest holes in the 6,7,8 "Can't Lose" strategy is the come out 7. In this video I try to plug that hole by shifting the risk from the six ways to roll the 7 to the three ways to roll a 4. There are still some holes I am looking to plug please post any suggestions in the comments below.
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The opinions in this video are not guaranteed or warranty to produce any particular result. This video is for informational and entertainment purposes only. I am a novice play and produce these videos to spread my love of the game.
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The hedge on the no 4 is something I had a problem with on iron cross, this solves that risk on comeout, thanks! I'm going to try that...
@@nova396 thanks for the comment! Remember, the four can still bite you on that come out role. It just shifts the risk in your favor two to one.
Good job Mike. I've been thinking of it this way. $210 lay 4, $10 yo, and $100 dp on the come out. Once the point is established take down the lay 4 and bet the 6/8 for $48 each. Collect 2 hits $112. Press to $110 inside. Now your playing with profits.
I like the 2 hits and regress strategy. The fewer hits it takes to be playing with your winnings the better.
I take the 1st hit on 6 and 8..press the 2nd win/hit all the way up on both then and knock it down to the original bet after the 3rd hit 💪💯
Collect then press is a great way to play.
We were trying a new Don't Pass strategy this weekend. Got Big Red 6 times out of 7 rolls on the come out. Normally not a person to hedge, but wish I would have.
Unfortunately, that happens. The dice gods can be fickle at times. Had you hedged, the dice rolls would have been different an you would have slowly bled. All we as players can do is minimize risk, or be willing to risk it all to hit the home run.
👍 nice strategy Mike you are doing a great job. as far as protecting the point you could put money on the hardways, that is if the point is not a five or a nine. if I put a very large sum on the don't pass and lay 4 oh, you could play the hard 4 and even hop the easy 4. that is if you're betting in the hundreds. kindest regards Dan
Thanks for the support and thanks for the advice. I will give it a try in the future.
Looking good. I'll try it the next time I go to the casino. Oh, also you shorted yourself $21. On your second to last roll you hit a 8 and did not pay yourself. But to still made over your 20% good work.😀
Thanks for the comment and good catch. I will put it in my virtual bankroll 🤪.
Great job on the vid. Hadn't seen the lay 4 insurance with this strategy, not a bad thought. To avoid the slow grind I like to double these bets with a larger bankroll, and to bypass the many Vegas casinos on the strip with $25 min bet now (greedy, but I like the energy on the strip!!!). I've sim'd this strategy over and over and I'm questioning moving your place bet if a 6-8 are hit on the come out, and I think leaving it working on the point is the best option, in the somewhat likely event they hit the point you almost mitigate all loss on the DP, and start the strategy over. Maybe something I'm missing there. Not normally a fan of a "hedge" strategy to win big but so far profitable on a slight majority of sims using this... Of course until shooter goes on a tear with 7-11 when buttons off!!! 🤦♂
Thanks for the support and the comment. The lay 4 really changes the dynamic. I will look at retaining the 6&8 bet. Good luck out there. May the dice be nice.
I just hop the reds for $9 on the come out, that way you aren't not losing $80 on a 4. If you really want to lay the 4, you should cover the hard way to reduce your risk. Nice video tho, you do a great job explaining it all.
Thanks. Great idea with hopping the reds.
Can you clarify what you mean by hopping the reds for $9?
@@jerzeebliss your betting 6-1, 5-2, and 4-3 for one roll. You bet each for $3 for a total of $9
@@jerzeebliss It pays 15 to 1, so you get $45. Just a different way to hedge against the 7 on the come out. The 7's are refereed to as Reds bc some players think it is bad luck to say 7 at the table.
@@1stgradevernacular925 You could also put like $10 on the seven that pays 4-1 and put $3 on the 11 that pays 15-1 to hedge it all ways. I’m new to craps so let me know if this is wrong
You didn't pay yourself on the last hard 8. Also, if you would have taken your $40 dont down and your $15- 5and your $18- 8 down before the hard 8 it would have netted you an additional $73.
Nice vid, thanks
Good catch. That’s why this game has multiple dealers. Too easy to miss stuff doing it all yourself.
I just saw this video and like it but would also protect the come out on any Big Red especially if it hit a couple times. I think your starting bank roll was $300 not $400 and that is why your profit seemed light at the end given all the "5" and "8" rolled. Only other big hole is if point is hit consistently which can happen with hot shooter.
Well said and thanks for the comment.
Note. I shoot at Live Arundel Mills. I could shoot st horseshoe too.
I bet $25 on the don't, lay $70 on "no 4", and put $10 on hard 4. That way, only the 3-1 (4) or 11 hurt me. When my don't makes it behind a number, I ask for my lay bet and hard way bets back. You are correct not to bet the 11. 2s and 3s combined hit more than the 11, so you have the advantage there already.
A random shooter will hit the 7 before he hits the 6 or 8 twice, so I would pull down my 6 and 8 after one hit, then just wait for my don't to hit. I play 4 place bets and start pulling them down as they hit after 2 hits.
If the shooter hits the point and my don't loses, I immediately Martingale a direct lay to replace the don't I lost lost. With my progression, the shooter would have to hit the 6 or 8 EIGHT times before a 7 comes in order to lose my bankroll. I shoot on the $25min/$2,000 max table. I've never gone above $186 on my progression.
To care for my don't I wait for a 3-1 (4) to be thrown (or 6-4 10) before I bet my don't, lay my 4 and bet the hard 4. It's a bit more of a grind, but consecutive 3-1's appear much less than single 3-1's.
Thanks George. Nice comment. I mostly go to Horseshoe but occasionally get to live. I will have to look for you. This is a great way to play.
@George's Phone- George do you have and email I can contact you on to discuss a couple strategies too much to put in these comments. Thank You!
I know you say you can't lose but you really can. I played online and the come out roll was out a lot, often getting 3 to 4 7's in a row and what made it worse was the 11 following or vice versa, it is a good method to play, you just need a big bank roll and a lot of luck!
You are correct. That why I tried to fix the holes. Much like the little Dutch boy, every hole plugged opens another.
Great video!!!: Only thing I would add Is press my 6&8 to 30 bucks each and also maybe remove my DC after 3 wins or place the number for the same amount.
reason if its a good roll going on I would then start placing the other numbers for 10 dollars each from the 35 I get off the 6&8 racking 25 making.
this is probably a whole different strategy .
True. The strategy becomes something else. But that is how all the strategies work. They are a foundation to leverage into other bets. I avoid pressing until I am playing with winnings. ABC (Always Be Collecting).
I am not don't betting on the big table. Maybe I will try that on bubble craps.
@@user-ng2hz5lz2x why no DP. Are you concerned about the other players? Just keep quiet when you win and cheer on long rolls from other players.
I like to risk half, $40 lay and $20 Don't Pass. I can then place odds on the DP if I want.
Solid play
Just tried this method an lost 400 in 15 minutes. I get the strategy but the come out roll was absolutely on fire! When tried to lay the 4, shooters were hitting 11 like it was their job!!! Lmao hopefully better luck next time.
Sorry to hear that. If a perfect strategy existed, it wouldn’t be called gambling. When the dice don’t go your way there is nothing you can do. Good luck next time.
Try just the lay to cover the 6/8 if you're following the table or shooter trends you'll be able to pick your risk. Generally 4/10 but I've been on tables where a 5 never showed. The come out 7 is either a wash or depending on how much you lay, can be a winner.(never go for just even ) 11 won't hurt you. You can leave your bets on and take advantage of all rolls.
With the dp, if you roll a 6/8on the come out, you're kinda screwed on a 678 strategy.
For example, with this table $18 6/8 ($36) on all the time
$80 lay 10/4 +$2 vig
Come out 7 =$40 -$2vig =$38
Loose $36 6/8 net +$2
Come out 11 = no loss
Come out 6/8 +$21 and you're not tied to a center # with the dp
I like the idea of Laying the 4. But it always burns me. Other than that, I do love this overall strategy. I play it often without the Lay 4. Maybe it’s time to revisit the Lay 4 component and give it another whirl.
Lay 4, less risk of losing but bigger loss if it happens. There is always a balance.
There are other options I've been exploring. Splitting the lay between the 4 and the 10, only half at stake but double the chance of losing it. Or hop the reds for $21 and the yo for $7 sacrificing $28 to assure a $100 DP. Twelve being the only risk number on the CO. Then bet the 6 and 8 for $30 each. Big red still makes a $12 profit on a PSO. Buckshotting the point losses $12. Racking the first hit and wating to cover the 5 and 9 for $25 each on the second hit mitigates the possible point made loss. One of the best ways to save bankroll while being in place for a good roll out. 🤞👍
That's why there is so many billion dollar hotels in Las Vegas
On the comeout the 6/8 win 10 times & the 7 loses 6 times. That's 5 to 3 in your favor of winning! So why needlessly leave $ on the table when the odds are always in your favor by not working the 6/8 instead? Please explain.
That is a really good question. I have not looked at it from that angle. I am mostly coming from personal experience and have been burned on the comeout roll more times than I can count. I would rather just lose the DP than lose both. Based on the math it is not a bad option, however. I may have to give it a go and see how it works.
I want to try this strategy.
The come out 7 is strong, but once you beat it you are in the clear.
Great Video Mike! Liking this Lay 4 tweak.
Thanks Chris. It comes with its own risk but just like the thumbnail, when you plug one hole another pops up.
@@OnPointCraps just like you said in the video....if there wasn't a hole everyone would play it. I like the Lay 4 (even risking the 80) compared to the slow bleed of betting the 11 or hopping reds or something along those lines.
I’ve never heard a dealer call a “ No field 9.” Hahaha.
That’s why I don’t work at a casino! 😁
I'd rather lay the 6/8. Better payout and only risking half the bet if one of those numbers hits. I've done well on those. $30 each wins $50. More than covers the Don't Pass
ThT is an interesting option.
If the point is a hard way. Drop a nickel on the hard way. Or turn the 6’s for 3 each.
I like that variation. I will give it a try.
Just realized after watching again you did not pay yourself at 17:29 of video. You said "square pair" and rolled again. You short changed yourself 21$ . One additional thought is, I would have also played 10$ in the field after 3 hits to cover all the other numbers.
Good catch on the missed payment. Mistakes happen when I am doing all the work in a craps table. I try to keep it raw and unedited though. I will consider the field play.
Relative newbie here. The biggest hole in this strategy seems to be hitting the point. I racked up a steady loss in the simulator all from hitting the point. You showed using the lay bet on the 4 to hedge against a comeout loss on the DP. Can you keep the lay bet active and just move it to follow the point? Seems like that way you are hedging against rolling the point. Is that allowed? Is there any other way to hedge against rolling the point? In the sim, rolling a 7/11 on the comeout happens far less than rolling the point, especially if the point is 5/6/8/9.
You don't want to lay the point. If the point hits, you lose. Part of this game is reading the table. If the point is being hit, don't go on the DP and and just place the box numbers. You can always pull the DP off if the roller goes on a streak. I hope that helps. Thanks for the question.
@@OnPointCraps Thanks. I was under the impression that the DP was a contract bet that could not be removed. Seems the DP can be reduced or removed once point is set but not increased or placed.
@@richardcarlisle6692 Correct. The passline bet is contract but not DP (DP put you at an advantage over House after come out roll.) You can't increase DP but you can place odds on it. They pay opposite of passline odds.
If laying the 4 is 3 less was to lose but your bet is doubled isn’t that basically the same bet or not necessary?
Not exactly. You are shifting the risk to a number less likely to roll. If the 4 hits, it hurts, but that is why it is called gambling.
@@OnPointCraps right but if your chance of losing is cut in half, but when you lose the amount is doubled then it’s basically the same right?
Over the long haul, yes, but in the course of your time at the table you will probably see more 7s than 4s.
Why risk 80 when you can hop the reds for 8$?
I like this strategy. Simple.
That’s the idea. The basic version is even more simple but comes with more risk.
Thanks Mike.Peace
That’s what I am here for.
what happens if you lay the 4 and a 4 comes out on the come out?
In that case you lose your lay bet. By laying the 4 or 10, you are just shifting the risk to a number that has half the chances to roll as compared to the 7. There is no way to plug all the holes in this strategy. The goal is to attempt to minimize the risk.
You lose.
@@jimklemens5018 short, but sweet answer! Thanks for the comment.
Maybe hedge with the hard 4 and if point is an even hedge there too to reduce risk? Thanks
Thanks for the comment. That is another possible option. The issue with hedging is that you can hedge your way out of any winnings. At some point you have to draw the line and be willing to take a risk. That is why it is called gambling.
Any other way than lay the 4 or is it better just to play 6,7,8 normal? Any other ways?
You could lay the 10 😉. There are other ways. You could bet any 7. No perfect strategy exists. 6,7,8 normal works fine as is.
You say that after the come out, the only way you can lose is if the point hits. Couldn't you place the point number and if that hits, you would lose the don't pass but make it up with the place bet?
Yes, but then you are investing more.
Making a Place bet on the point when you have a Don't Pass bet, turns it into a treading water style. You can't win any decent money.
Just like many other silly strategies for craps you see hear on youtube it makes no mathematical sense. the problem you want to avoid is losing on the 7 come out bet of 40 dollars which has a 6 of 36 chance of happening. So you protect it by doubling the 40 to 80 dollars with the 4 . HELLO the chance of a 4 is 3 of 36 but you are risking twice as much. Would you like one dozen eggs or two sets of 6 eggs. You change nothing mathematically by doing this.
Not saying it is perfect. There is no perfect strategy. This just attempts to shift the risk off the most likely number.
If you want a system at craps that always wins, take all your money and bet it on the number that rolls next😂😂😂😂😂
If only it were that simple.
Just confused why you risk 80$ on the lay when you only have to risk $8 on any 7?
The seven dollars is a guaranteed loss, and a slow bleed. Risking the $80, I am a two to one favorite with that bet. When the point gets established, I can take down the lay, and it is no longer at risk
What if you put money on the point?
Do you mean if the point is 6 or 8? In that case shift to the next outside number. If you mean if your lay bet becomes the point, then just like the proverbial Dutch boy in the dam, another hole has been discovered. You can’t plug them all. Fortunately there are only 3/36 ways to roll a lay 4 or 10.
So I'm watching this again. Your laying 80 on the 4 on the come out. If you hit the 4 on the come out you lose 80 right off the rip. I understand that the 4 is unlikely to roll but it's still a big hit. What if you put 40 on the don't and say 8 or 10$ on the any 7 then start the 6,8 if you get a point? I'm a new player so I'm not sure how that would go. But maybe try to roll it out just as practice. I wouldn't mind seeing a video on that if you could please.
I can do another video on 6,7,8. The reason I don’t do any 7 is it is a slow bleed. Every non 7 come out you lose that bet. At least with the lay 4 (or 10) you get the bet back. It is a big hit but less risk. My most likely play would be to not fear the 8 and just roll a standard 6,7,8.
Raymond. I am glad you like my channel and are asking great questions. This is why I started the channel. I want to introduce new players to the game and hopefully give them some strategies to play. That way they are not scared off from the game and can hopefully come out a winner.
But I see the plug on the lay 4 makes the strategy that much better. But my dad used to be a big craps player and I heard from him that usually if you're a first time roller the pass line is a good way to go. Any truth to that or is it just dumb luck?
@@raymondneubertjr.5324 I wouldn’t say it’s the best way to go. It is probably the cheapest since you are just placing one bet. The Don’t Pass is actually more in your favor once you get past the come out roll.
The Any 7 bet is the worst on the table with a house edge of 16.6%.
11 on the come out is also a problem, is it worth betting the (E) during come out to address this risk?
It is an option but I don’t like those types of hedges.
Go back and look at your starting bankroll, it was only about $250
That may be where the issue came from I thought I should have won more. Maybe I will do a sequel.
I was looking like theres no way he started with 400.00 I counted 250 also
Would you consider this a good strategy for say a beginner craps player?
Yes, in so far as it is simple and works rather well. The basic 6,7,8 is better for a smaller bankroll due to the investment required for the lay bet.
Ok. But I'll have a 600$ bankroll to start. But I'll go look up the basic 6,7,8 strategy also
@@raymondneubertjr.5324 $600 should give you some flexibility.
Maybe I could start with a 20$ don't and a 40$ lay on the 4 then do a 18$ 6 and 8
Actually I'm rewatching it and I think I'd be okay playing the same way you were playing. Lay 80 and 40 on the don't
Just a comment. If you’re point is 5 or 9, and you hit 6&8 twice, quickly, I put $35 on the point to cover my DP bet.
Good idea. I like all the minor variations on a theme. It is what makes this game so fun to play
Ferb444, why cover the DP? Just pick it up.
@@1stgradevernacular925 The DP will still win on the 7.
I'd cover the 11, if your winning, it takes 1 hit on the 11to make the hedge worthwhile
Good option. If already in the positive then it could definitely work. I did hit a YO early and it would have helped.
I agree. You’re paying the vig on the lay 4 so Toss $3 on the yo just in case.
@@ferb4442 fair enough. Make it a flat $5.
just watch and i don't think you had a $400 bank roll.
You are correct. Good catch! It is more like $250. I am not sure why no one else has caught that. Thanks for the comment.
Once you made enough money back to cover your bets. Ever consider picking up your don't pass that way no matter what happens you profit ?
I have considered it. A lot of people say to never remove your don’t. The seven will come no matter what. It is always statistically more likely to hit than a point.
Only an idiot would remove their Don't Pass bet after the point is established.
@@jimklemens5018 agreed. The seven is still the strongest number on the table. It is the one number that is guaranteed to roll at some point.
Something's not right here brother! You should've won twice this much! You only lost the don't pass one time and you won it back! You hit a ton of 56&8s for 21$ winners!
I thought so too. I lost DP on come out and the point came when odds were on. I think that is where I lost it. I think the video really proved the point in the initial come out 7.
@@OnPointCraps well I know you didn't pay yourself on the square pair towards the end ! I'll have to rewatch and see what else happened
Great Video though I liked the tweak
@@waylonswaycraps thanks. Keep me honest. You know how tough it can be dealing, rolling, and narrating
@@waylonswaycraps thanks. It isn’t a perfect solution but it is something.
I lost all trust in you when you went "eww" when the 5 dice came out. If you are superstitious you should not be gambling
Thanks for the comment. I don't know why you feel like I was being superstitious when I dumped the bowl. The reason I made that noise is because I had been asked to keep track of how often I got a "straight" when I dumped the bowl. I was one dice away from a 1,2,3,4,5. It had nothing to do with superstition and was all about being close but no cigar.
@@OnPointCraps copy that brother.
Some don't like how the dice are given to them before they roll. Which is why they wash it
You can’t do math in your head ? You can’t subtract 33 from 40. 🤔
I know, it sounds ridiculous. Narrating, rolling, manipulating chips, stick work, it all stresses the brain.
@@OnPointCraps Hahahaha. I know. Just busting your balls. I appreciate what you do. Waylon on craps screws up all the time. The thing that gets me the most. He says “I have a $5,000.00 bank roll.”The majority of people don’t buy in for $5,000.00. Roll out strategies for $500.00 bank roll. Most people I know are pissed they can’t find a $5.00 table. I live in Reno and buy in for $500.00 at least once a week.
@@jacemiller2593 No worries. Same here, a $500 buy in would be high for me.
@@OnPointCraps Right.
Sum ting wong
Please explain.
Dammm
😆 lol
Ok..but there is NO "cant lose" strat. I try to not use those terms. But do you ;) not being critical. I like your work.
Thanks! Not my name for the strategy. I just use it.
This is NOT good advice to " better " this strategy and I will tell you why:
1. When you lay the 4 on the come-out roll, you are STILL susceptible to a 4 being rolled on the come-out and then you're FUCKED!
2. You exposed your strategy by NOT taking a MINUSCULE $5, Yo-11 bet on the come-out roll, and that put you down $40, which is a HUGE loss!!!
3. You are losing additional money by NOT turning OFF your place bets after a certain amount of hits and I will explain below with my suggestions for improvement.
So here are MY suggestions for improvement with this strategy:
1. On the come-out roll, with the $40 Don't pass bet, place $10 for an Any 7 bet and $5 on the Yo-11 bet. This way you will have NO WORRIES about losing any money on your don't pass bet and if you hit a Y0-11, you will make an ADDITIONAL $30!!!
Also, once the point is established, you will be DOWN $15 but this can be MADE UP with your place bet hits of 6 and 8 with just 1 hit of either of those numbers, so you will NOT " slowly bleed " your BR - Bankroll!
2. If the point number is a 6 or 8 - since those are what I consider to be " good " numbers - I would suggest taking OFF your don't pass bet and split $18 each from that amount and place it on BOTH the 6 and 8 and then go for 3 hits of either of those numbers or any combination of those totaling 3 hits and then call off those place bets or take them down and wait until that shooter sevens-out and then repeat that process for the next shooter. Or IF you want to be a little riskier, you can go for a MAX amount of 4 hits for either of those numbers or any combination totaling 4 hits, but NO more!
Any OTHER point, leave your don't pass bet up and place the 6 and 8 for $18 each and STILL go for 3 or 4 hits MAX!.
If you follow these suggestions, I feel you will make a LOT more money with this revised way of playing!
Excellent input. Thanks for the advice. I go for the lay 4 solely due to the only 3 way to hit. You are right it is a big loss if you get hit.