The Fall of China.

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  • čas přidán 11. 05. 2022
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Komentáře • 3,5K

  • @magellantv
    @magellantv Před 2 lety +2311

    One thing's for sure, the history of China is fascinating to learn about.

  • @WoddCar
    @WoddCar Před 2 lety +5584

    Who knew that having a very top heavy authoritarian aristocratic ruling class caring only for themselves would have disastrous consequences for the people below them

  • @RH-zk8je
    @RH-zk8je Před 2 lety +147

    My wife is Chinese and keeps me updated on their social zeitgeist. She says the government seems more popular than ever these days. Also, it's been drilled into Chinese people that the Century of Humiliation was caused by disunity and that China needs a strong central government to survive.

    • @eternalelysium4944
      @eternalelysium4944 Před 2 lety +45

      certified "my wife is chinese" moment

    • @nope7389
      @nope7389 Před rokem +4

      Because… the era of humiliation was because of that?

    • @RH-zk8je
      @RH-zk8je Před rokem +6

      @@nope7389 Yeah, that was a huge reason. I'm just saying that the Chinese people are very aware of that fact, and it will take a lot to make them disunify again. "Chinese people will never fight for rights, but always for food".

    • @alanparsonsfan
      @alanparsonsfan Před rokem +4

      @R H What does your wife hear about the social zeitgeist now that people died in a locked up apartment tower in Urumchi, millions saw people without masks at the World Cup and Jiang Zemin has died?

    • @RH-zk8je
      @RH-zk8je Před rokem

      ​@@alanparsonsfan In the past few days, China has seemed to walk back COVID restrictions in response to the protests, and is removing daily PCR test requirements in some cities. She says the lockdowns are still popular with govt employees who get paid no matter what happens, but unpopular with average people who can't work at their jobs and don't get sufficient subsidies. She's been seeing subtly subversive memes being shared about government overreach and freedom. There is also a rumor of a scandal in Beijing's PCR test company paying the mayor $40 million and causing false positive tests to trigger lockdowns (requiring expensive mitigation services) or causing false negative tests (to allow the spread of COVID, again requiring services.) I haven't seen anything about that in Western media yet, but a couple of Chinese people told me about it like it's a fact. Regarding the world cup mask thing, she said everyone already knew the rest of the world was back to normal.

  • @kopshi
    @kopshi Před 2 lety +82

    Seeing some people defend China's lockdowns by saying we're more interested in the goods and services they produce over the lives of actual Chinese people always peeved me for reasons I couldn't put to words. Thanks for putting it to print!

    • @henli-rw5dw
      @henli-rw5dw Před 2 lety +17

      Most people wish to see China's collapse. When millions starved in China in the great leap forward, there was zero aid. People have been hoping for China's collapse for 30 years now. Even this video is basically wishing that China collapses. That's just the reality for the Chinese. There is no savior. People want them to fail. Their destiny is in their own hands if they work hard at it. Always was, always is, always will be.

    • @brianmiller5444
      @brianmiller5444 Před 2 lety +7

      @@henli-rw5dw given the fanatical reality of Maoist Great Stumble Backward…. How exactly could other people have helped and would the Great Steersman even accepted any aid?

    • @henli-rw5dw
      @henli-rw5dw Před 2 lety

      @@brianmiller5444 Why you think west sanctioned China back then? To help them? No, obviously hoping the communists would starve as they did. It not a secret that everybody wishes ill of the Chinese. They are on their own. People have been wishing doom on them for 30 years.

    • @henli-rw5dw
      @henli-rw5dw Před 2 lety +5

      @@brianmiller5444 Ironically it's the doom wishing that keep them together. You know, external threat, else the Chinese are greedy and selfish.

    • @Aurora-cx3fe
      @Aurora-cx3fe Před 2 lety +1

      @@henli-rw5dw Elon musk loves Chinese, there are hundreds of people who love Chinese, you’re wrong.

  • @eisbergsyndrom5010
    @eisbergsyndrom5010 Před 2 lety +1762

    Let's not forget that coastal China is packed with relatively wealthy people who would be able to take a plane or boat and flee China if it suffered civil war. It would make the 2015 migrant crisis look like a couple of lads visiting for some sightseeing.

    • @jacobbrassard2776
      @jacobbrassard2776 Před 2 lety +169

      Except they would benefit the nations they go too. They are some very enterprisesing people.

    • @victorcode2075
      @victorcode2075 Před 2 lety +412

      @@jacobbrassard2776 Yes and no. Here in Australia Asians are our biggest minority. You're right that they do very well educationally and economically, but they are highly ethnocentric and generally side with the Chinese government on everything, regardless of how long they have been here.

    • @zkf5448
      @zkf5448 Před 2 lety +114

      @@jacobbrassard2776 Russian oligarchs Benefits the west too, yet they are not welcomed, there are a lot of variables that go into something like this.

    • @Evanderj
      @Evanderj Před 2 lety

      True. The most wealthy Chinese & CCP leaders have been covertly acquiring properties in the West for years, and storing capital overseas in anticipation of expatriating given the opportunity.
      The unspoken attraction of acquiring wealth, for many, is to leave China- and I think they see the writing on the wall. It’s very dangerous to be a Chinese billionaire under this regime, especially if your plans to bail are uncovered.

    • @Otori6386
      @Otori6386 Před 2 lety +193

      @@victorcode2075 They're also incredibly nepotistic, once one gets into the hiring management it becomes basically impossible for any other ethnicity to join the company.

  • @alquinn8576
    @alquinn8576 Před 2 lety +970

    it's impressive how you never fail to create video where the audio recording is all over the place

    • @siyacer
      @siyacer Před 2 lety +153

      I used to think he had like 6 different narrators when I first watched him

    • @tacticaltoaster5777
      @tacticaltoaster5777 Před 2 lety +232

      It's apart of his brand at this point lmao

    • @HansLemurson
      @HansLemurson Před 2 lety +184

      He's collaborating with other timelines, which is how he gets the inside scoop on alternate histories, but not every world knows their audio.

    • @Manetho76
      @Manetho76 Před 2 lety +30

      It helps me keep attention, it's one of the main things I like about the channel

    • @GeorgeOneEleven
      @GeorgeOneEleven Před 2 lety +49

      Seriously! Been saying this for a while now. It's crazy how much better these videos would get if he just spent a little time cleaning up his scripts (removing offensive / dated language) and either buying a higher quality microphone or getting someone else to do the narration. He's really, really holding himself back here.

  • @giancarlochan1338
    @giancarlochan1338 Před 2 lety +87

    I was born, grew up and received most of my education in China. I'm now living overseas, working with people from diverse backgrounds. I love the comparison of China with France. The similarities between the 2 cultures were what drove to study French on my own. Reflecting on my own education, it's a bitter sweet experience. Sweet in that it was very easy to find a sense of belonging as it's been emphasised throughout my school years that students need to score high collectively to bring honour to the class. Bitter in that there was very little room for individual development as a person. I along with many others was often seen as an ex machine oir teachers could use to get a pay rise. In recent years I can see with my own eyes how much China has gone backwards. I'm under the impression that the main reason for this is due to the total destruction of its cultural foundation. The cultural revolution has such profound ramifications in reshaping China as a whole and unfortunately the ruling party decided to put a stop to reflecting on the damage done by simply putting ir as a mistake, now it's been corrected as a daring but difficult attempt to achieve communism. We as a nation never truly introspect another what communism has brought to us. The party on the other hand has been meticulous in restructuring its people in every aspect. They like big fancy words such as China's great revival, for which individual difficulties are dismissed. All must work under the party's forever correct guidelines to achieve this ultimate goal. Officials don't answer to the people they manage, but to their superiors. Hence you see a lot of infrastructure projects because it's so much less effort to build a road to work your way up the ladder than actually bend down to listen to what your people are struggling with. Another example is the party's relentless persecution against any forms of spontaneous cooperation. Spontaneously forming groups or organisations to better support the community means little control the party has over their participants. And the party is extremely good at taking advantage of humanity's greed and jealousy. You're encouraged to report your neighbours, friends even family members on anything deemed unpatriotic or critical of the government. This is exacerbated with actual material rewards as further incentives. Today China's lower middle class and low class are full of these self righteous and selfish people that delight ok other people's misfortune. Empathy, sometimes even sympathy are not really taught. Everyone should be for themselves and they have an almighty government that can take care of them. This is why I agree with thr video and why I've been telling my friends around me that this communist China, just like Russia is doing nothing but bluffing. I feel sorry for the country that has such a long and rich history. But as an individual I'm glad that I'm no longer part of that society.

    • @bitchkiller2964
      @bitchkiller2964 Před 2 lety +2

      atomic society in which every single individual is like an atom, unable to be organized by same principal or ideology, CCP will strike on any of such attempt and has taken over every aspect in society with help of high-tech surveillance ,if dystopia gonna come true one day ,it's gonna come true in CCP's China first

    • @darkknight2414
      @darkknight2414 Před 2 lety +21

      wish China can overcome the ccp and again rekindle its culture love from India❤️

    • @bobjones2959
      @bobjones2959 Před 2 lety +14

      @@darkknight2414 Thanks friend, but as another overseas Chinese I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. Love to India!

    • @henli-rw5dw
      @henli-rw5dw Před 2 lety

      In the beginning the CCP was an idiotic system that led to mass starvation. But the CCP today has evolved into a threat to Western governance because of it's efficiency. The Shanghai incident is the first weakness that I've seen so far, in that it made a decision not based on good science, but politics. No western governance today can respond to all the global issue facing humanity like the CCP can.

    • @TheMentorOfMomos
      @TheMentorOfMomos Před 2 lety

      I love china so much and it pains me a lot to see it like this.
      Communism is supposed to make you help the people around you to build a better society. The CCP has become corrupted just like the western conservative parties, advocating for a fake morality that they themselves have created and act as it was always like that.

  • @dipp1511
    @dipp1511 Před 2 lety +6

    bro, america is collaping right in front of our eyes

    • @adrianjohnson1028
      @adrianjohnson1028 Před 2 lety

      The amount of projection and delusion is insane

    • @user-pk4nr6dy9g
      @user-pk4nr6dy9g Před 2 lety +1

      Are you suuuuuuuure? ;)

    • @adrianjohnson1028
      @adrianjohnson1028 Před 2 lety

      @@user-pk4nr6dy9g looks like I successfully shamed you to remove your response under my other comment earlier :)

    • @user-pk4nr6dy9g
      @user-pk4nr6dy9g Před 2 lety +1

      @@adrianjohnson1028 ????

    • @adrianjohnson1028
      @adrianjohnson1028 Před 2 lety

      @@user-pk4nr6dy9g I can’t see your response to my comment where I said copium, China rising. I guess if you didn’t delete it then you were censored. So much for western free speech :/

  • @ancient-rhinowang6641
    @ancient-rhinowang6641 Před 2 lety +1535

    as someone who lives in China right now, I would say the situation outside of the Shanghai is not as bad as you pictured. But the situation inside Shanghai is far worse than even you have pictured. If the central authorities keep up with their ludicrous decision-making, then disaster certainly looms in the horizon. I don't think the populace is capable of doing anything radical though, since most of them are sheepish, drenched in self-loathing most of the time and do not have the will to fight.

    • @cuddlemuffin.9545
      @cuddlemuffin.9545 Před 2 lety +25

      Cap

    • @bathhatingcat8626
      @bathhatingcat8626 Před 2 lety +96

      Yep. I live in shanghai and have lived in China 10 years. I concur

    • @ManiacMayhem7256
      @ManiacMayhem7256 Před 2 lety +204

      centuries of social engineering is a son of a gun.

    • @specialnewb9821
      @specialnewb9821 Před 2 lety +7

      Naomi Wu has said the same thing.

    • @danielscalera6057
      @danielscalera6057 Před 2 lety +43

      And the thing about the military helping the revolution is that there needs to be an already existing revolution for the militarily to co-opt

  • @PhilHug1
    @PhilHug1 Před 2 lety +171

    A warlord period for a country with nukes? That's scary

    • @nishantsingh7235
      @nishantsingh7235 Před 2 lety +46

      sounds like pakistan to me.

    • @aestheticjedi1868
      @aestheticjedi1868 Před 2 lety +16

      @@nishantsingh7235 Given the current political situation there right now

    • @holeeshi9959
      @holeeshi9959 Před 2 lety +4

      Try.....warlord periods in multiple countries with nukes

    • @hughmungus2760
      @hughmungus2760 Před 2 lety +9

      While there maybe turmoil within the CCP I just can't see anyone actually splintering off and forming their own seperate government. Chinese nationalism and aversion to seperatism is just too strong for that to happen.
      Whats more likely to happen is a palace coup where another clique takes power in the CCP and heads in a different direction while most of the country is left in the dark about whats happening.

    • @ArthurWKLo
      @ArthurWKLo Před 2 lety

      Nukes are manageable (for the rest of the world). Biological weapons, not so much. Who knows what they have in their labs...

  • @oscarl2334
    @oscarl2334 Před 2 lety +8

    Excuse me, if China still there in 15 years, will u give me a million dollars?

  • @VL-inquisitor
    @VL-inquisitor Před rokem +5

    Time is the best judge. Almost a year has passed since this the date of this clip, and China is thriving - its GDP for 2023 is estimated to grow 5.2%. On the other hand, these countries are experiencing some spectacular fall - UK: -0.3%, Germany: -0.1%, US: 1.6%. So, are we changing the title to 'the Fall of the West'?

    • @daniellap.stewart6839
      @daniellap.stewart6839 Před rokem

      Things like this don't happen overnight kid just use your head a little bit

    • @VL-inquisitor
      @VL-inquisitor Před rokem +1

      @@daniellap.stewart6839 Yeah, the epic fall of the West does not happen overnight! I totally agree

    • @jeffpork5181
      @jeffpork5181 Před rokem

      @@VL-inquisitor Dumbass population crisis takes time for falling it'll take probably 15 years.

  • @shlomomarkman6374
    @shlomomarkman6374 Před 2 lety +584

    There is another possibility. Yes, the regime will change but China won't collapse. Historically, it happened two times that China was re-unified by a tyrant who had a short lived dynasty. That dynasty was replaced to create the more balanced long-term dynasties we know about (like suei to tang period). Dynastic collapse was usually because of weakness and not tyranny

    • @lacasadehonor9408
      @lacasadehonor9408 Před 2 lety

      qin collapse was because of tiranny

    • @JPOGers
      @JPOGers Před 2 lety +61

      Because of Xi’s cult of personality, I think a weak leader after Xi is a distinct possibility and even likely

    • @thanakonpraepanich4284
      @thanakonpraepanich4284 Před 2 lety

      It's hard to say since regime change in China takes decades, not years. Just the transition from Imperial to Communism last time took 50 years.
      Expect your kids to be the one to watch the outcome on TV, you may not live long enough to see the endgame.

    • @jlethal4929
      @jlethal4929 Před 2 lety

      Of course China won’t go away forever but they usually have an interregnum period of decades or centuries between dynasties. With the way China and the rest of the world are these days this would mean an enormous amount of suffering, famine, and possibly regional war.

    • @Forcoy
      @Forcoy Před 2 lety +31

      I thought Whatifalthist was at least a semi mature person but after seeing the 3 hours of his petty arguing against Vaush, I'm dissapointed. He talks like a manchild and he clearly shows signs of not being able to have any kind of proper discussion with a normal human being. I'm genuinely surprised as to how much of a different person he seems in this videos compared to live social interactions. Jesus christ.

  • @ussiowa8393
    @ussiowa8393 Před 2 lety +1423

    I think another question that could be asked is how would the collapse of China affect the rest of the world and America in particular. On the one hand, the collapse of China could be similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union, wherein the USA would turn back to its internal problems and likely liberalize further. Still, on the other hand, the US and the rest of the world is far more reliant on China than they ever were on the Soviet Union. It'll be interesting to see how they adapt to a world where China is at best fractured and ineffective. Maybe you could do a video on this in the future?

    • @bathhatingcat8626
      @bathhatingcat8626 Před 2 lety

      Well let’s hope China exists in a weakened state or the globalists will enslave everyone as the Chinese would

    • @CantoniaCustoms
      @CantoniaCustoms Před 2 lety +113

      Greater Hong Kong being British or something, maybe turn Nanking into the Catholic capital of the world under the banner of the Taiping heavenly kingdom?

    • @Evanderj
      @Evanderj Před 2 lety +34

      That’s a great idea, USS Iowa. I’m very interested in that.

    • @hornetguy9063
      @hornetguy9063 Před 2 lety

      Personally I don’t see why we have to rely on a country that is out to screw over our culture. Go somewhere like India or Thailand, where the people in power actually don’t want to inject cultural rot into our society.

    • @Ma1akai
      @Ma1akai Před 2 lety +67

      because china is so important for the us economically unlike the soviet union i feel like that would take up americas full attention

  • @Uberkatze-
    @Uberkatze- Před 2 lety +6

    JUST 2 MORE WEEKS BRO, JUST 2 MORE WEEKS AND CHINA WILL COLLAPSE BRO, BRO TRUST ME BRO, JUST 2 MORE WEEKS BRO

  • @ramonrodriguez4881
    @ramonrodriguez4881 Před rokem +7

    As soon I heard about the demonstrations occurring in China among first things that rushed through my head was video. The question will occur in the coming weeks months and possibly years.

  • @user-kt4vn8le5p
    @user-kt4vn8le5p Před 2 lety +501

    I feel that the fact that all these theories and predictions is based on current trajectories and inferences is vastly understated. China may collapse, but that cannot predict any actions that change the situation. So remember, don’t take this at face value. Things will keep changing

    • @greenearth975
      @greenearth975 Před 2 lety +20

      What do you think the CCP can do to solve the issues he has talked about in the video.

    • @johnl.7754
      @johnl.7754 Před 2 lety

      @@greenearth975 well they are creating their own version of mRNA virus shot. I think also China population is too old to have a revolution.

    • @ladinosaurio9204
      @ladinosaurio9204 Před 2 lety

      @@greenearth975 create babies out of thin air

    • @ihavenojawandimustscream4681
      @ihavenojawandimustscream4681 Před 2 lety

      @@greenearth975 the CCP can pull a Stalin and destroys the PLA leadership to prevent a warlordization.That wont solve the problems facing China,but it will ensure that the regime stays intact until the worst has passed or a solution is found

    • @goldenbrigain7031
      @goldenbrigain7031 Před 2 lety +34

      @@greenearth975 Ramp up the infrastructure and make it actually work. Encourage social cohesion where people support one another. Fix the dating scene by forcing certain companies to keep their employee's off work more often and pouring wealth down to the populace; but also support the populace not simply through money but through economic favors and benefits outside of raw cash that also funnel resources to severely needed areas.
      And, IDK...make a plan to effectively govern alongside and not over 1/7th of the entire population of earth.

  • @porterwayman8643
    @porterwayman8643 Před 2 lety +596

    What’s to be considered when we talk about China collapsing is that there is a large industry funded by western companies as we have them make our stuff and we buy it. If that major source of labor is gone, it could have massive ripple effects. Western economies could easily collapse and companies would need to shift who they have build their stuff. India and Mexico could easily fill this role with dozens of other countries. The collapse would have winder effects on the world then any other time China has gone into its warlord period

    • @cuddlemuffin.9545
      @cuddlemuffin.9545 Před 2 lety

      The only thing the west gets from China is cheaper 1$ toys. Can be easily outsourced to somewhere else like Vietnam

    • @CantoniaCustoms
      @CantoniaCustoms Před 2 lety +23

      I mean, colonialism II: Electric boogaloo is always on the table

    • @elnovillomapuchedehomerus2412
      @elnovillomapuchedehomerus2412 Před 2 lety +12

      China has made laws so chinese labor worker who works for west companies would win more money than other workers from countries such as india and mexico usually wins and this make many companies to leave but some time later they came back because what makes chinese workers different from the other examples is that they are more educated and capable for many different works even of they are more expensive many companies still operates in china

    • @Tyler-ze4tg
      @Tyler-ze4tg Před 2 lety +21

      I would assume that the fall of China wouldn't be instant. Like we see right now, it would be a gradual deterioration of the state, so companies would have plenty of time to realize its time to get out and move to another (hopefully not authoritarian) country.

    • @PhoenixRiseinFlame
      @PhoenixRiseinFlame Před 2 lety +17

      Except western manufacturing is already transitioning to places like Southeast Asia

  • @matt7192
    @matt7192 Před 2 lety +34

    A thing Whatifalthist avoids mentioning is the strength in Chinese ethno-cultural homogeneity. 94% of the population being Han Chinese pretty much guarantees that China with its current boundaries has a strong chance of existing long into the future. Other more ethno-culturally split nations will struggle when crisis hits and people priories the in-group more while tensions and power struggles increase.

    • @zuozuo9192
      @zuozuo9192 Před 2 lety +1

      We not only have 1 billion ethnicities and religions in America, but we also have 56 genders too.

    • @jaydenshepard7928
      @jaydenshepard7928 Před 2 lety +2

      Lol Russian and French revolutions happened in even more racially homogenous nations at their time, and this was also before the age of the internet and massive dependency on energy which 85% is imported from outside its borders in China. They also didn’t have any super powerful outside nations poised to aggressively take advantage of this collapse.

    • @taxthesocialist2602
      @taxthesocialist2602 Před rokem

      It's rather hilarious how non-white countries can have their own majorities but leftietards don't cancel them.

    • @mattia8327
      @mattia8327 Před rokem

      @@jaydenshepard7928 yeah but the countries of Russia and France didn't split up.
      Unfortunately for the world Its more likely that the US wil split up in 50 years than China

    • @hewhomustnotbenamed9276
      @hewhomustnotbenamed9276 Před rokem

      Whatever wignat.

  • @kb9oak749
    @kb9oak749 Před 2 lety +9

    This channel provides the most in depth and comprehensive analysis I have seen and communicates very effectively to those not completely immersed in the myriad factors in play.

    • @kgwal4760
      @kgwal4760 Před 2 lety

      How he literally read like three articles in a very anti-China U.S. media and he thinks he’s some genius

  • @lcatalamusic
    @lcatalamusic Před 2 lety +266

    I think you should rely less on Turchin in your analyses. First, he's not a historian, he's a statistician, and secondly, his historical analyses overlook the fact that past demographics data aren't just that reliable - like iirc credible population estimates for the population of Rome in the 1st century vary by a factor of *four*. Because of this, it's very easy to pick and chose historically plausible numbers that conform his initial thesis. Actual modern historians tend to be skeptical of cyclical theories of history, for good reasons.

    • @superiguana1
      @superiguana1 Před 2 lety +5

      Yes!

    • @djd8e8edjdj
      @djd8e8edjdj Před 2 lety +1

      Oswald Spengler

    • @jonathancummings6400
      @jonathancummings6400 Před 2 lety +10

      Yeah, right, except history is cyclical because humans are limited and therefore predictable. Also, China is crumbling, it's demographic situation is such that it will grow old before it becomes rich enough to handle such an old society.

    • @user-cx9nc4pj8w
      @user-cx9nc4pj8w Před 2 lety +19

      @@jonathancummings6400 Humans are limited and predictable, but technology will change things in ways they can't imagine that will drastically affect the future. Just compare Back to the Future II with actual 2015. The changes in the modern world are too fast and too novel to predict using historicism* alone.
      *looking to the past to predict the future

    • @glenn07777
      @glenn07777 Před 2 lety +1

      Turchin is fine. His predictive power (turbulent 2020's already from 2010) is superb. But as I already said to my comment, he must rely in all details of Turchin's view, not just those that lead to a convenient conclusion.

  • @bigboineptune9567
    @bigboineptune9567 Před 2 lety +291

    I’d love to see an entire video on the future of America and the different scenarios that could play out. I know there’s the “Is America in Decline” video, but that one left me yearning for more from you.

  • @MAGICatBEN
    @MAGICatBEN Před 2 lety +8

    I’m curious, based on the models you showed, what countries in the world have the FEWEST of these factors which generally precipitate revolution and instability.
    Useful information for those of us looking to ride out any large-scale world chaos.

  • @lek8630
    @lek8630 Před 6 měsíci +2

    playing circus theme song is mandatory for watching this guy videos

  • @nadams01_65
    @nadams01_65 Před 2 lety +177

    I absolutely love the upload frequency. You’re killing it man

  • @Coldfront15
    @Coldfront15 Před 2 lety +173

    Man, dominating a debate and now dominating our feed. What else does he do?

    • @unreleasedost5230
      @unreleasedost5230 Před 2 lety +10

      Lmao don't lie to yourself

    • @truwu8177
      @truwu8177 Před 2 lety +26

      Dominate me

    • @bsbuster8469
      @bsbuster8469 Před 2 lety +24

      vaush couldn't even debate him properly he completely dominated him

    • @kordellswoffer1520
      @kordellswoffer1520 Před 2 lety +24

      @@unreleasedost5230 like many vaush fans do.

    • @XXBloodyElle
      @XXBloodyElle Před 2 lety +9

      He quite literally ran away. Vaush didn't even have time to hit him with the racism card

  • @Nasamike
    @Nasamike Před 2 lety +6

    I am living and working in Shenzhen, China. Good points, I can't disagree. Wow! Next few years are gonna be interesting.

  • @Mitzoplick
    @Mitzoplick Před rokem +4

    What I am unable to understand, is why Chinese mainlanders would care at all about Taiwan. How would unifying Taiwan under the CCP change their lives?

    • @hatbad231
      @hatbad231 Před rokem +4

      It wouldn't it's an honor thing

  • @albertalu4583
    @albertalu4583 Před 2 lety +157

    Whatifalthist: "China will become a powerful empire that takes all of Siberia
    China: *Does the shit that it's doing today*
    Whatifalthist:

    • @alphagamer9505
      @alphagamer9505 Před 2 lety +26

      He did say that in that video that China would have gone through a warlord period

    • @danshakuimo
      @danshakuimo Před 2 lety +35

      Historically that's kind of the pattern though. When they are good they are really good and when they suck they really suck.

    • @oscarwind4266
      @oscarwind4266 Před 2 lety +7

      Thats the thing with predicting the future. Its damn near impossible as everything changes

    • @royhuang9715
      @royhuang9715 Před 2 lety +17

      Cause he is making predictions with western propaganda not facts. Also since he thinks in binary, so China would be in only one of two state, either a world dominating power or civil war. His prediction is such a foolish guess, it’s kinda ridiculous.

    • @albertalu4583
      @albertalu4583 Před 2 lety +3

      @@alphagamer9505 I know Im just memeing

  • @swaggoffosaurmunchakoopas2013

    Your channel started out with alternate histories, then used that foundation to predict alternate futures.
    There are many other people who attempt to make similar predictions, like Peter Zeihan. I'd be interested to hear you branch into making videos responding to their predictions with your own analysis. Or you could go the political debate route, like you did with Vaush. (Great idea, in the future avoid condescension at all costs)

    • @asddsdsssd
      @asddsdsssd Před 2 lety

      Id say avoid debating pedophiles in general, Vaush is a piece of work.

    • @atomicshadowman9143
      @atomicshadowman9143 Před 2 lety +64

      Vaush is owed nothing but contempt.
      CZcams deletes what I really think he deserves.

    •  Před 2 lety +14

      "vaush" get out of here lol

    • @Crick1952
      @Crick1952 Před 2 lety +8

      Wait, Whatifalthist debated Vaush?
      That's something I need to see

    • @G-Mastah-Fash
      @G-Mastah-Fash Před 2 lety +59

      That guy has admitted himself that he doesn't care about principle, he only cares about winning. He doesn't even deserve a conversation at that point, just a beating.

  • @justintaub768
    @justintaub768 Před 2 lety +4

    This is a good and informative video, enjoyed it a lot. My one constructive criticism would be to pay more attention to audio mixing and volume levels, sometimes it's jumps around

  • @underscoredfrisk
    @underscoredfrisk Před 2 lety +28

    Respectfully, I don't agree. Possible tensions within the Politburo may just lead to a minor coup, and simply a return to China before Xi. The housing crisis will lead to a massive recession, but not enough to starve. I am currently most fearful for current starvation issues to somehow spiral, or the water crisis to worsen. People only revolted in Czarist Russia and France because of starvation. I don't think the current events is terrible enough to be a long term issue. (So water crisis is likely the one that threatens PRC)

    • @afdalridwan3813
      @afdalridwan3813 Před rokem

      Which is that are their dominant and major water supply come from Tibet
      But this channel thumbnail reminds me of Three kingdom era

  • @frankenstein4606
    @frankenstein4606 Před 2 lety +67

    The similarities between french and Russian revolutions are spot on. Funny how you just uploaded a WW3 prediction too. Intuitive predictions.

  • @joenichols3901
    @joenichols3901 Před 2 lety +39

    The average Chinese citizen has near debt levels of a US citizen despite 1/5th the income. China has 20% of its properties vacant - enough to house all of the UK. Chinese property developers are all going bankrupt. Many Chinese citizens also own two homes, one of which is not rented out to anyone - simply for its appreciation. These are blaring, LED red lights saying PROBLEM. This is on top of the demographic crisis which is the worst in history - caused directly by the CCP

    • @hughmungus2760
      @hughmungus2760 Před 2 lety +5

      So what? China is a fairly low income country with room to grow while the US is already high income economy where all the low hanging fruit for growth has been picked.
      In theory china can still grow its way out of the problem, albeit with a few changes in spending habits.

    • @samuelross9884
      @samuelross9884 Před 2 lety

      In that case, all Britains can move to China and get free housing!

    • @hughmungus2760
      @hughmungus2760 Před 2 lety

      @@iminyourwalls8309 Chinese culture is fundamentally different to the west, when people reach 'retirement' they rarely if ever retire. its not like in the west where the government promissed generations of people unrealistic pensions.
      In china people have personal savings for their old age but still work till the are physically incapable of working because its considered culturally unacceptable to be unemployed.
      You see this even today with the elderly still holding down jobs and getting very little handouts from the government with basically no complaints.

    • @hughmungus2760
      @hughmungus2760 Před 2 lety

      @@iminyourwalls8309 The old people are being replaced with robots anyway, the real wealth of china will be created by automation and more efficient, localized supply chains.
      Hell, if china can pull the remaining 40% of it's population off the fields and into some kind of desk job, thats a huge deal. Because you can work in an office well into your old age.

    • @joenichols3901
      @joenichols3901 Před 2 lety +1

      I'm a US mortgage broker. The Chinese real estate bubble has begun to pop - it is showing in the defaulting of all property developers and 50% declines in sales, every month, over the past six months. The Chinese population is going to nearly halve in the next forty years. 20% of the total Chinese housing is completely empty. On top of that,the extremely high personal debt levels of average citizens. All of that is what is called a bubble. It is no different from the US Great Depression or the Japanese housing bubble - exactly a forty year period of industrialization, building a bubble in wealth assets and then subsequent collapse. These issues couldn't be worse. Seriously. China has enough extra housing to house entire nations.

  • @matthewmagda4971
    @matthewmagda4971 Před 2 lety +5

    I would love to hear commentary on mass shootings. This is the channel where I first heard the aphorism, "if you fall to give young men a sense of belonging in the village, they will burn the village down".

    • @ihavenojawandimustscream4681
      @ihavenojawandimustscream4681 Před 2 lety

      Mass shootings is basically western equivalent of suicide bombings.Dissafected young men choosing violence due to lack of advancement,it will only increase in the future like how terrorism rapidly increased in the Middle East as the economy starts slowing down

  • @ziokai175
    @ziokai175 Před 2 lety +5

    I love your videos and commentary, they are insightful, well researched, and nuanced.
    However, for the love of God please invest in a boom microphone and sound card or keep it close to your mouth. The sound quality varies a great deal and sometimes sounds like your are recording from across the room.

  • @duncustard
    @duncustard Před 2 lety +192

    The energy component is missing from this analysis. All previous Chinese collapses happened in what was basically a subsistence agricultural economy. While a broad scale revolution/social collapse is definitely on the cards, the warlords/Napoleon scenarios aren't viable in a country that imports 85% of its oil and nitrogen fertilizer. The pressure for the central government to hold is much stronger in a scenario where failure means de-industrialization and a 70% mortality famine.

    • @ArthurWKLo
      @ArthurWKLo Před 2 lety +12

      Industrialisation/de-industrialisation is of course new, but 70%+ fatality isn't historically unheard of during end-of-dynasty periods.

    • @Laotzu.Goldbug
      @Laotzu.Goldbug Před 2 lety +20

      @@ArthurWKLo I think in the past we may have seen something like 20%, creeping up to 30%, but 70% is on an entirely different qualitative level

    • @keepinmahprivacy9754
      @keepinmahprivacy9754 Před 2 lety +7

      Yes, I just don't see a "balkanization" of China in the cards. They have many ethnicities, but a very very long history of national identity too. They would benefit a lot more to transition to a more federalized structure maybe, instead of actually splitting up into different, competing nations. But that transition will still probably be a violent one, since they don't seem to have a path to having a national dialogue where issues could be negotiated peacefully. Perhaps their best case scenario is that the power brokers making back room deals are able to arrange a coup with a "soft landing", likely with assistance from the West who have a vested interest in keeping China from completely disintegrating.

    • @jacob4920
      @jacob4920 Před 2 lety +4

      @@keepinmahprivacy9754 50 years from now, The People's Republic of China dissolves into the "United States of China," a weak central government barely holding together a union of Chinese Provinces with more power. Basically like the European Union is today, or how the US was prior to the Civil War.

    • @panniguin862
      @panniguin862 Před 2 lety

      @@keepinmahprivacy9754 there's also the factor of neighboring states that either want bits of 'China' , have legitimate claims on the land (Taiwan & Mongolia), entities that want independence (Hongkong & the Uyghurs come to mind) or governments in exile that wish to free their land (eg; Tibet)

  • @xcom54
    @xcom54 Před 2 lety +68

    I think the only thing that is really holding the CCP's rule together is technologies in weapons and surveillance, that can suppress an uprising easily. The French peasants didn't have to go up against tanks and machine guns.

    • @therearenoshortcuts9868
      @therearenoshortcuts9868 Před 2 lety +22

      this is a problem for all revolutions going forward
      it might just mean the rebels always need some kind of insider help going forward (e.g. help from disaffected parts of the military)

    • @CantoniaCustoms
      @CantoniaCustoms Před 2 lety +15

      @@therearenoshortcuts9868 or foregin backing.

    • @StuffandThings_
      @StuffandThings_ Před 2 lety +21

      The coming decades may very well be the last time in world history when revolutions by the people stand a chance. Here's to hoping that the awful regimes around the planet fall by then, before the world slowly anneals into its more permanent set of states. Some of the developing states around the world look like they have a bit more time, but the window is closing very fast for many places around the world.

    • @planderlinde1969
      @planderlinde1969 Před 2 lety

      I agree that the only thing keeping China together is the CCPs totalitarian system i could imagine that it isn't easy governing over 1 billion people. If a hypothetical rebellion did break out there is only so many people in government and the PLA if one domino falls they all will.

    • @olgagaming5544
      @olgagaming5544 Před 2 lety +7

      Meh, if ALL THE PEOPLE in the country would go out on the streets, there's nothing they could do. Its just when most are afraid and a tiny group wants to protest

  • @abdirahmanbadal781
    @abdirahmanbadal781 Před rokem +5

    Whatifalthist: Uploads a video.
    2 months later:The Chinese financial crises began.Some regional banks fail. Chinese citizens stop their mortgage payments.

    • @stewity1
      @stewity1 Před rokem +2

      Whatifalthist is just too smart

  • @yunusjauhari
    @yunusjauhari Před 2 lety +3

    13 Mei
    22:55 Nonton CZcams 22:57 Whatifalthist The Fall Of China 23:40 Turun ke bawah Kekamar Mandi Naik keatas 23:49 ludah keluar

  • @nathanoher4865
    @nathanoher4865 Před 2 lety +68

    Interesting how he chose a slightly different part of the intro theme this time

    • @pacificstatesofamerica
      @pacificstatesofamerica Před 2 lety +6

      I miss the old one but I welcome this new one! It’s cleaner and reflects him getting more professional with his production value (with his content already being top tier haha).

    • @nathanoher4865
      @nathanoher4865 Před 2 lety +1

      @@pacificstatesofamerica Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head

  • @Ussurin
    @Ussurin Před 2 lety +36

    You know, in Poland we often complain how we are unable to have working goverment unless actively at war with odds massively in favour of our enemy, but not having a way for goverment to ever get any amount of actual power over people isn't bad. Way less genocides, famines and similar that way.

    • @richardkenan2891
      @richardkenan2891 Před 2 lety +8

      When I was a kid, I read an article claiming that governmental gridlock was one of the greatest achievements of American democracy. 95% of the world's people would be better off if their governments were afflicted with gridlock, and the other 5% already live in the United States. Wish I remembered who wrote that.

    • @xsir_hcx3897
      @xsir_hcx3897 Před 2 lety +1

      @@richardkenan2891 that is extremely interesting

  • @tablab165
    @tablab165 Před 2 lety +2

    Content so nice, I watch it twice!

  • @DarrylPierson
    @DarrylPierson Před 2 lety +9

    It’s interesting to hear someone compare communist China to pre-revolution France. (I’m unimportant, but I’ve always thought that both the PRC and USSR seemed like French or Russian feudalism masquerading as communism, and post Soviet Russia seems like the same variety of feudalism, only masquerading as capitalism, now.) I don’t know if you agree, and China, especially, seems a very convoluted stew, with ingredients from any number of systems in the mix, but it’s nice to hear someone else make the connection, even if it’s only tangentially or parenthetically.

  • @Muslim-og3vc
    @Muslim-og3vc Před 2 lety +83

    Debates a communist sympathiser, wins and then uploads a video essay about the fall of china. What a Chad

    • @erei5659
      @erei5659 Před 2 lety +8

      wouldn't call it a win.

    • @stevecooper7883
      @stevecooper7883 Před 2 lety +19

      @@erei5659 when you wrestle with pigs you always get some mud on you

    • @boyishmallard9404
      @boyishmallard9404 Před 2 lety +1

      did we watch the same debate? Rudyard literally gave up after 10 minutes

    • @ThomasFoolery8
      @ThomasFoolery8 Před 2 lety +23

      @@boyishmallard9404 the gap in knowledge between the two was cringe af. Vaush isn’t well read at all.

    • @dying_allthetime
      @dying_allthetime Před 2 lety +9

      Yeah if anything, WIAH became annoyed at Vaush because of his constant interruptions and lack of knowledge.

  • @largeegg6505
    @largeegg6505 Před 2 lety +36

    I feel like we’re on the precipice of a crisis

    • @nathanmonk7128
      @nathanmonk7128 Před 2 lety +18

      I think we all feel that. It's gonna be a crazy decade

    • @skyguy1236
      @skyguy1236 Před 2 lety +7

      @@nathanmonk7128 just wait until 2040 when the water crises begin

    • @rogerc6533
      @rogerc6533 Před 2 lety +3

      A global one like a repeat of the bronze age collapse

    • @vyktorehon5995
      @vyktorehon5995 Před 2 lety +1

      @@skyguy1236 ah shit here we go again

    • @thefool1086
      @thefool1086 Před 2 lety +1

      @@rogerc6533 I don't think that bad

  • @DankCannon
    @DankCannon Před 2 lety +4

    Bro, how many books have you even read?

  • @johnwentz2149
    @johnwentz2149 Před 2 lety +17

    I found the map you were referencing. Interestingly, when I set ages to 13-30, a lot of the east Asian countries, including China, switched from shame to guilt. That gives me reason to be optimistic for their future.

    • @wuy4
      @wuy4 Před rokem

      Maybe that switch demonstrates the cultural spread of western ideals. Slowly shifting even old societies set in their ways. American media is a global export.

  • @enticingmay435
    @enticingmay435 Před 2 lety +90

    People here in the West vastly underestimate the amount of nation building that China and the CCP has done over the past half a century or so. Yes, China has historically been divided, with local warlords and clans having more authority over the central government but since the CCP took over, especially in the last few decades, they’ve really gone hard on uniting the country whether that be through infrastructure, education and the sino-nization of far away lands and ethnic minorities. A century ago if you go and ask people who they identify as, they would say that they are Fujianese, Sichuanese or Hainanese. If you go around the country and ask the same question today almost everyone who say that they are Chinese. Whether good or bad, the CCP has spent the past few decades wiping out hundreds if not thousands of different dialects and cultures all across the country and indoctrinating the Han Chinese culture and the standard Mandarin language. China, despite its problems today, is more united than it has ever been in its history. People from Heilongjiang on the Russian border to Yunnan in South East Asia and even places like Xinjiang and Tibet are more united than ever. I’m not saying that that is a good or a bad thing but just that the country is stronger and more united socially, economically and politically than it has ever been in its history. Children nowadays, regardless of their ethnic backgrounds, speaks fluent mandarin sometime even as a first language when their parents or grandparents might not even able to speak the language. The new generation of Chinese, those born after the cultural revolution of the 1960s and especially those born in the 90s and 2000s, are fiercely nationalistic with a strong sense of who they are as a social cultural entity in the world. Even those who are oppose to the CCP’s rule has this strong sense of nationhood attached to them. So even if this current CCP government falls, China as it stands today will continue as a nation, both culturally, socially and geographically. A country as big as China will not fall apart and disintegrate easily, despite all the wet dreams of theorists in the West, even if it’s facing a multitude of problems. For example, just look at the US. America faces as many if not more social and political problems as China and yet it still exist and will continue to exist as a country. The US is a perfect example of how a country can and will continue to survive despite a tsunami of unresolved social, economic and political issues. China will be the same. Again, it’s nice for western theorists to have wet dreams about China disintegrating completely and be under Western control just like it once was but those who predict that clearly doesn’t know the trends and developments in modern Chinese society and culture. I’m not a CCP apologist by the way, I think that their policies and actions are inhumane and unjustified. All I’m saying is that a lot of their policies, whether good or bad in our eyes, work in uniting the country and it’s people. I hope that the CCP falls and a new more democratic and humane government replace it but I just think that it’s outright ignorant and foolish to predict with certainly that an ENTIRE society, culture and identity will fall apart so easily.

    • @lillyie
      @lillyie Před 2 lety +12

      may i ask how much yuan the ccp paid you to say this

    • @JimB.Walken
      @JimB.Walken Před 2 lety +9

      Found the Chinese shill

    • @royhuang9715
      @royhuang9715 Před 2 lety +24

      @@JimB.Walken A typical under educated response with no real argument just personal attacks.

    • @royhuang9715
      @royhuang9715 Před 2 lety

      This dude is making his analysis based on purely western propaganda. For example, he assumes people are starving but in reality people are complaining they are not getting some type of food they want not starving.
      And another ridiculous claim he made is that some how quarantine and economic downturn would break China. What a laughing stock. CCP has trashed Chinese economy in the 1960 with the Great Leap Forward and actually starved millions to death during the economic collapse and mismanagement. Yet CCP still exists. This guy has never read Chinese history. Every Chinese dynasty would endure multiple economic collapse and famine before finally collapsing.

    • @perry6660
      @perry6660 Před 2 lety +13

      @@lillyie Instead of ad hominem, can’t you just make an argument? I guess not.

  • @micahistory
    @micahistory Před 2 lety +36

    Dude I just love your videos, they are so good and insightful

    • @micahistory
      @micahistory Před 2 lety

      @@cyberwar4111 ah yes if you are so much smarter than him, why not debate him?

  • @iang257
    @iang257 Před 2 lety +4

    I guess to quote Bill Wurtz.
    "China's whole again... then it broke again..."

  • @lukasgestrine
    @lukasgestrine Před 10 měsíci +4

    This video aged like...well, it aged

  • @noahsmith5098
    @noahsmith5098 Před 2 lety +36

    I don’t think it would ever come to a complete collapse like that, at least not within the 15 years you have predicted. Most likely what would occur is just a change in party leadership with Hu Jintao or some other upstart faction taking the helm. The major problem is that unlike during the French and Russian revolutions which were all driven by ideological movements with decades of groundwork there is nothing of the sort in China. The absolute control by the party over all media, thought, and expression has led to a situation where there is no other alternative than the Party. When you add to this the fact that since Mao the CCP has been hardening the country against revolution since it’s founding, with Mao famously stating that “The party must control the gun.” Any sort of rebellion or popular revolution will have to contend with the Army being the sole source of power, with not even the police having any sort of real firepower. In more recent times in China physical barriers to discourage gathering along with armed checkpoints between provinces and cities have decreased any likelihood of a successful rebellion. Any rebellion in China would have to be facilitated by someone at the top and breaking party ranks, something that is unlikely when the alternative can be that person toppling Xi’s faction and becoming leaders themselves.

    • @therearenoshortcuts9868
      @therearenoshortcuts9868 Před 2 lety +1

      main problem is what will replace the CCP?
      there is no practical alternative from a bureaucratic standpoint... even if a new regime takes over the entire government bureaucracy will likely still be former CCP members ... they are the only ones with the knowhow at this point...

    • @noahsmith5098
      @noahsmith5098 Před 2 lety +7

      @@therearenoshortcuts9868 it’s less about no one knowing how to run a government (that never stopped a revolution before) it’s just that there is no ideological force other than maybe Chinese nationalism that would fill the vacuum. The French Revolution had decades of salons discussing enlightenment philosophy, the Russian revolution had decades of organizing by socialist movements, hell even the Chinese revolution had Sun Yat-Sen creating the philosophical groundwork for the modern Chinese state. Without something to bind people together into revolutionary action you will just get general unrest followed by a reshuffling of the elites.

    • @therearenoshortcuts9868
      @therearenoshortcuts9868 Před 2 lety

      @@noahsmith5098
      likely will be a hypernationalist regime that replaces CCP...
      the only other alternative might be a corrupt populist regime that just gives "Free money" to everyone who has something to complain about... and that will just lead to bankruptcy LOL

    • @shorewall
      @shorewall Před 2 lety

      @@noahsmith5098 If China starts a war with the US, the horrors of the blockade, war, famine, and the US funding anyone with a pulse will forment many revolutions. The CCP's downfall will happen because it must happen, or the people will cease to exist. Either way, no more CCP.
      And the CCP in return will cause any devastation it can. WW3 will only be started by the CCP, and if it starts, it will be very different from the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. It won't be a straight fight. CCP will work horrors.

    • @olgagaming5544
      @olgagaming5544 Před 2 lety

      French revolution wouldnt happen if they had cameras everywhere and people would be paranoid to notvoice any negative opinion about the state or they might be sold by someone and sent to jail

  • @tacobannana6628
    @tacobannana6628 Před 2 lety +8

    dude your videos are packaged up so well with all the key points lined up perfectly, really helps me understand and put it all together. You would make an awesome teacher/historian. thanks a lot for making these.

    • @tvrulz46
      @tvrulz46 Před 2 lety

      Are you for real? This guy makes so many sweeping generalisations. I doubt this guy has ever set one foot in China.

  • @benashley2955
    @benashley2955 Před 2 lety +1

    Great video, much closer to your old style than most of the recent ones. Minimal reference to the writer or the writer’s friends, just simple analysis and opinions about a topic

  • @VL-inquisitor
    @VL-inquisitor Před rokem +3

    Surprisingly, such videos about the 'collapse of the Chinese economy in xx days' keep on coming, and yet no one seems to bother that such predictions all turn out to be wrong. Even more surprisingly, such videos can muster a high viewership.

    • @norikofu509
      @norikofu509 Před rokem +1

      It's because the fall of something that puts on danger the Western's sphere of power is always going to attract views.

  • @calmeleon1342
    @calmeleon1342 Před 2 lety +46

    On the topic of authority that you discussed within the video I think an appropriate analogy would be that china, along with the majority of other east Asian nations, view authority and government as fulfilling more of parental role, a power that knows more along with whats best for them and shouldn't be question. Meanwhile Western peoples view themselves as fulfilling the parental role in the relationship with government and authority as they are responsible for questioning or explicitly stating when they are wrong, in order to guide them towards whats best for the nation.

    • @ilyaselasri3352
      @ilyaselasri3352 Před 2 lety

      In the other hand here in northAfrica and Middle east, people simply respect Power and status anyway, people dont think in conflict they simply think that the angriest and more confident is right one. and Authority does satisfy those feelings.
      its also part of culture not only between authority and people but between people themselves , they value respect, and power is the way to gain it. So they(my people) value power or the Optic of power.

  • @dancinghost7773
    @dancinghost7773 Před 2 lety +34

    I appreciate you did a debate and stepping outside your comfort zone

    • @erei5659
      @erei5659 Před 2 lety +6

      he didn't really debate he just monologued and then ran away.

    • @user-pk4nr6dy9g
      @user-pk4nr6dy9g Před 2 lety +2

      @@erei5659 TURKIYE 🐺🇹🇷🐺🇹🇷💪💪🇹🇷🐺🇹🇷🇹🇷🇹🇷🐺💪💪🐺🇹🇷🇹🇷💪💪💪🇹🇷💪💪💪🐺🐺🇹🇷💪🐺💪💪🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿

    • @matthiuskoenig3378
      @matthiuskoenig3378 Před 2 lety +1

      Vaush isn't worth debating anyway.

    • @LuisFlores-ls4yy
      @LuisFlores-ls4yy Před 2 lety +3

      Honestly, just made them both look bad. They should just do video debates countering their points rather than just trying to go over it on the fly.

    • @shorewall
      @shorewall Před 2 lety +1

      @@LuisFlores-ls4yy Debates are a joke. The participants are incentivized to attack each other, and the viewers are incentized to treat it like a rap battle.
      The real debate should be in the heart of the earnest searcher for truth. Look up different viewpoints and weigh them in your mind.

  • @elmohead
    @elmohead Před 2 lety +3

    How the video starts: China has a very long history.
    How the video is titled: the fall of China!
    How China was: top down authoritarian government.
    How China is: top down authoritarian government.

  • @ErikOrellana
    @ErikOrellana Před 2 lety

    Great video! I deeply appreciate the distinction between the different takes on honor.

  • @ukrainenews8247
    @ukrainenews8247 Před 2 lety +75

    As a Hong Konger, this is both a chilling and hopeful prediction.

    • @kordellswoffer1520
      @kordellswoffer1520 Před 2 lety +15

      Maybe the british will take you back.

    • @NeoEvanA.R.T
      @NeoEvanA.R.T Před 2 lety +20

      Chilling? More like bing chilling

    • @honeycomblord9384
      @honeycomblord9384 Před 2 lety +1

      @@NeoEvanA.R.T nice

    • @TheNaturalLawInstitute
      @TheNaturalLawInstitute Před 2 lety

      It's what most of us in the european world are hoping for. "There is nothing stopping chinese people from equality to european quality of life other than the goverment that fears the transformation from civilization state to a federation of states in the civilization. (Russia has the same problem. we are all worried india will fall backward as has china under xi, and russia under putin).

    • @TheManofthecross
      @TheManofthecross Před 2 lety

      We will see but you guys are going to get dragged in to this fight and be ready your place will be reduced to rubble with the fighting etc.

  • @yichengshen4802
    @yichengshen4802 Před 2 lety +49

    I have to say that my parents emmigrated to Australia just in time, hopefully my extended family well weather through 😞

    • @enticingmay435
      @enticingmay435 Před 2 lety +9

      I fear for all the immigrants of color living in Australia when the country finally goes through an economic recession. Australia has been experiencing uninterrupted economic growth for the past few decades and has opened its doors to immigrants yet despite all of that there is still such an underlying level of racism in the society. There’s still pretty much a them vs us mentality. People are still pretty much separated. I live there for a few years and it’s very apparent how negatively a lot of people view immigrants despite the high level of income and standard of living that everyone enjoys. I can only imagine how bad things are going to get when an economic recession happens and peoples wages and standards of living starts droppings. They’ll be blaming every person of color that they see. That’s just my observation though, I would rather live in Australia over China any day.

    • @kongregatefan67
      @kongregatefan67 Před 2 lety +9

      @@enticingmay435 I agree with you 100% I may want to add that I see racism against Europeans too. There are many social groups primarily of Asians/other groups who are against Europeans. I've heard it myself since i hang out with a lot of Asians when they talk about how 'white people' are lame, uncultured and the source of the worlds problems and then tell me that im different because im 'cultured' and from europe itself. On the other hand I hear racism against non-europeans just as much, especially with the older population and areas where there little to no diversity in demographics and its really gross to see. I see a society that could potentially fracture in the future, especially if standard of living starts to stagnate.

    • @therearenoshortcuts9868
      @therearenoshortcuts9868 Před 2 lety

      @@kongregatefan67
      aye, everyone potentially hates everyone at this point
      if there is a collapse i expect all the races to attack each other, including asians vs blacks, mexicans vs Muslims etc etc..

  • @Fabella100
    @Fabella100 Před 2 lety +3

    Really great video thank you. Just one idea for improvement: the sound was mediocre tbh. It might be worth getting a different microphone? Also it might be me, that there were a few times where I thought you talked a bit too fast and it would have been easier if there were little breaks like after a sentence or so. Your content is so amazing I don't want to miss a thing you say.

  • @tianlingchen5523
    @tianlingchen5523 Před 2 lety +4

    As a Chinese, I just feel, hahaha, you are really interesting 😂😂😂
    This, from the day I started getting into CZcams, has been listened to on repeat every day

  • @SkyWKing
    @SkyWKing Před 2 lety +85

    People who say "China plans for the long term while the West plans for the next election cycle" fails to realize one thing: it goes both ways. A good long-term plan has benefits for decades to come, but a bad long-term plan, like the One-Child policy, has short term benefits but disastrous long-term effects. Term limits and elections are exactly there to course correct should a bad policy is pursued. Democracy is the solution to the 'bad king' problem when Europeans realized being stuck with a tyrant or imbecile king for decades is disastrous for the nation. If China got their version of Donald Trump, the entire world would have been in chaos for the next two decades. America just voted him away.

    • @Halo4Lyf
      @Halo4Lyf Před 2 lety +12

      And its worked out so well for us.

    • @gadflyofhumanity_6847
      @gadflyofhumanity_6847 Před 2 lety

      @@Halo4Lyf BOTH sides SUCK, quit cucking for just one side

    • @rsj2877
      @rsj2877 Před 2 lety +9

      Well, yes there had been events where democracy failed at that, but it still gives a fail safe to shut down a bad policy in case of.

    • @steelballrunner636
      @steelballrunner636 Před 2 lety

      @@Halo4Lyf To be honest, it could have gone worse. I think we dodged a lot of bullets from Trump's time in office that would have had disastrous impacts on the USA. It wasn't great but it could have easily been much, much worse.

    • @ericjohnson7234
      @ericjohnson7234 Před 2 lety

      No! correction from an Ameriocan. Biden had stolen the election. You can see a video of him openly admitting this very fact in a press conference.

  • @qaz120120
    @qaz120120 Před 2 lety +6

    Please keep your focus on history stuff. Your perspective on modern stuff is very narrow.

  • @PeteMoore25
    @PeteMoore25 Před rokem

    Hi, I only discovered your channel yesterday and am hooked on your content. Trying to squeeze in videos wherever I can. I was wondering if you wouldn't mind sharing a reading list that informs your videos. I am very keen on educating myself. Thanks!

  • @michaelliu374
    @michaelliu374 Před 2 lety +2

    As a Chinese live in Beijing right now,I also have many friends live in Shanghai,I can say most people in Shanghai or Beijing support the zero covid policy. Not because the government force them,but quite the opposite,people force the government to insist the zero policy. So the ccp government just do what the majority people want ,even the government wants abandon the policy for economy goals it’s impossible.
    There are many reasons,the main reason I think is the elderly are in charge while elderly are most vulnerable. The elderly are highly respected in both families and society,no one even Xi dare to publicly support live with the covid and let the elderly exposed to the virus. So it’s kinda like a political correct thing in China.
    And also China won’t collapse,it’s very stable,Shanghai ,Beijing or other cities just small part of China,Chinese are quite educated and united,also quite flexible and adaptive,only if you live in China and fully understand the culture you’ll know what’s I mean. The media only reports some extreme cases,as if China is collapsing in no time,that’s not the whole picture

    • @theslavemotivator3571
      @theslavemotivator3571 Před 2 lety

      Foreign journalist are mostly closed from China what the west get is what China reports on

  • @vicentegambini8907
    @vicentegambini8907 Před 2 lety +5

    This is probably one of my favorite channels on youtube. keep it up 👍

  • @micahistory
    @micahistory Před 2 lety +56

    It's gonna be interesting to look at how china develops over the next couple of years

    • @jody6851
      @jody6851 Před 2 lety +6

      Reminds me of what I understand is a famous Chinese saying: "May you live in interesting times." And it's said as a curse -- not as a blessing.

    • @therearenoshortcuts9868
      @therearenoshortcuts9868 Před 2 lety

      overpopulation has always been a Chinese problem since ancient times
      hopefully if the population actually falls by 50% this time - the dynamic changes for once LOL

    • @user-xo9ig8kc3u
      @user-xo9ig8kc3u Před 2 lety

      @@therearenoshortcuts9868 'hopefully if the population actually falls by 50% this time' - ok psycho.

    • @therearenoshortcuts9868
      @therearenoshortcuts9868 Před 2 lety

      @@user-xo9ig8kc3u
      lollll

    • @hughmungus2760
      @hughmungus2760 Před 2 lety +4

      @@therearenoshortcuts9868 despite what is claimed, a shrinking chinese population will be a stabilising factor by reducing wage competition and freeing up more resources per capita. The average chinese could care less about how many people live in the country while they do care about their personal ability to afford things.

  • @luishernandezblonde
    @luishernandezblonde Před 2 lety +6

    I can't even imagine what will happen if China collapses. The country maybe very authoritarian and aggressive, but it is also a major economic powerhouse and it is very integrated globally. Any disruption will make it calamitous for both of us. Though I can't deny that Chinese culture is far more conservative than expected.

    • @j5ylim396
      @j5ylim396 Před 2 lety

      the cultural revolution has fucked us up majorly, but its apparent that they cant extinguish us entirely
      though you wont like the cultural direction the fatherland, or the rest of the sinosphere in that matter, took

  • @LokiBeckonswow
    @LokiBeckonswow Před 2 lety +2

    6:39 - I can't speak from a Chinese or Japanese perspective, but something I find very interesting here - in the example of America, the populace openly criticise their systems for not being better, so refinement and optimisation, however when this system is attacked, it generally solidifies to retaliate - this as opposed to praising the system and then attacking it from the inside when attacked - so interesting

  • @KonstantineMortis13
    @KonstantineMortis13 Před 2 lety +15

    "For Americans in the audience, think of how little you consume comes from your home state, let alone the city you live in!
    *Laughs in rural*

    • @CoolKidMethew
      @CoolKidMethew Před 2 lety +1

      @Centurion 0mega We live in a corn-based society

    • @Ahnenerbe1944
      @Ahnenerbe1944 Před 2 lety +1

      Some of us wouldn’t even have to leave our property 😂

  • @lmvr127
    @lmvr127 Před 2 lety +22

    Whatifalthist gives me a reason to live

    • @ThomasFoolery8
      @ThomasFoolery8 Před 2 lety +3

      His content is fire 🔥

    • @dickiesdocos
      @dickiesdocos Před 2 lety +3

      That's sad if true

    • @ThomasFoolery8
      @ThomasFoolery8 Před 2 lety

      @@lmvr127 he doesn’t have western chauvinism, he just isn’t politically correct. The PC narrative of the the world these days is to downplay the success of the west to make all cultures feel equal, but anyone who seeks to learn true history knows that isn’t the case.

  • @davidwalsh6597
    @davidwalsh6597 Před 2 lety

    Great video!

  • @evangelism2
    @evangelism2 Před 2 lety +5

    It amazing how much of this applies to the US atm

    • @user-pk4nr6dy9g
      @user-pk4nr6dy9g Před 2 lety

      Cope. I like how your other comment just shows that you simply wanted some sort of random ass thing to shit on about the US lmao. Clown world.

  • @jacobbrassard2776
    @jacobbrassard2776 Před 2 lety +49

    I would argue that the war lord timeline is less likely. The last war lord period is still in living memory. The Chinese are willing to do anything to prevent that from happening again. I see a more likely scenario of a military coup. There are major cliques in the CCP. The Jian Je Ming clique based out of Shanghai still has a lot of power. Also durring the day in 1989 that didn’t happen, some of the PLA was rebellious. I feel that if they can see the writing on they wall they would not support Xi. After all the Chinese love China not the CCP. I think a military coup is more likely and China adopt a not entirely representative but two party government to keep corruption down. Think of it as local officials electing big officials . One thing is sure though. If things get bad China will try to take Taiwan to keep some legitimacy. You over estimate the local people who most are too dead inside to do anything. A top down crisis is much more likely. Also Christianity might become way bigger. It already has more followers than CCP members and the Chinese Christians are very passionate.

    • @danielutriabrooks477
      @danielutriabrooks477 Před 2 lety

      I would rather not to the last thing, the Papacy is not doing very well and I don't trust protestants in China

    • @the11382
      @the11382 Před 2 lety

      A military coup? Unlikely, internally the CCP describes the PLA soldiers as "little emperors". I don't think the Chinese people are thinking about preventing a warlord period right now.
      As for Christianity, it's a massive wildcard how it will play out. Especially as the religion meets traditions and philosophies. Confucionism is on the rise too. One of China's Emperors claimed to be Jesus's brother and it ended up a complete disaster, so anything can happen.

  • @userequaltoNull
    @userequaltoNull Před 2 lety +52

    I would have liked to watch the debate, however unfortunately I literally can't bear to listen to vaush speak for more than 30 seconds. He's not only wrong, he's a liar (and he knows it). He's also extremely arrogant, and spits venom at a moments notice.

    • @tannerraque4348
      @tannerraque4348 Před 2 lety +20

      In all honesty you made the right choice. The first half of the debate was vaush saying that modern day social justice and abolitionist are the exact same and constantly interesting rud when he was making his argument. The second half mean while was vaush owning himself saying things like I kid you not to get to an anarchist society I would raise taxes and the tried and true real communism has never been tried argument. Unfortunately vaush is actually a savy debater at least to when it comes to getting under an opponents skin so the first half vaush won because rud kinda lost his cool while the second half was a firm win for rud.
      (Sorry for the length of this comment didn’t mean to rant.)

    • @MrLeemurman
      @MrLeemurman Před 2 lety +10

      Debates are a stupid form of discourse, anyway. They're like the meat-head bro-down's of the mental world, without actually solving issues or educating anyone.

    • @firesb7791
      @firesb7791 Před 2 lety

      Not to mention tbat Vaush isn't a debater, or even a liberal. What he truly is,is an authoritarian amoralist ideologue and Rhetorician. Dishonest doesn't cover it. He is a downright malicious actor who is a total waste of time. Not to mention that ideologically and morally, you couldn't reasonably call him a socialist, he has the moral and ideological structure of a madman

    • @shumono3254
      @shumono3254 Před 2 lety +2

      @@MrLeemurman tbh the best form of debate is when a debater lets the other one talk more, so they could showcase how shit their arguments are..

    • @bucherregaldomi9084
      @bucherregaldomi9084 Před 2 lety

      @@tannerraque4348 "was vaush saying that modern day social justice and abolitionist are the exact same" hooo man, strawman-fallacy really? Or you can't comprehend what he says about this? Social justice is not the exact same as abolitionism, not even by Vaush standards.

  • @jerzyritz8526
    @jerzyritz8526 Před 2 lety

    Excellent video but sometimes different segments of your videos have very drastic volume levels and that’s an easy thing to fix to make your videos a lot easier to watch on a tv or with headphones on

  • @13StJimmy
    @13StJimmy Před 2 lety +1

    If you look only at China in recent history it’s pretty dark and grim, but if you look at the history of China you know that it’s breaks apart all the time and will eventually do the same as all empires do

  • @youtubehandlescostmemyusername

    I'm glad you addressed that no revolution succeeds unless the army joins in or stands aside.

    • @fredlougee2807
      @fredlougee2807 Před 2 lety

      In this case I believe that the PLA would side with the revolutionaries. Xi recently did a very Stalinesque purge of the officer corps, eliminating entire chains of command in the ostensible name of rooting out corruption. In reality it was getting rid of officers who were or might become more faithful to their superiors than to Xi himself. In the short term this works, but in the long run it leads to officers looking for any reason to revolt...so long as they think they can get away with it.
      The French army did not decide overnight to support the Revolution. It was a smoldering resentment against the king and nobility that caught fire once the Revolutionary Committee stood up. The officer corps of the PLA probably has that same resentment.

    • @youtubehandlescostmemyusername
      @youtubehandlescostmemyusername Před 2 lety

      ​@@fredlougee2807 My understanding of these issues is superficial at best since I can't read a single Chinese character. Even if I could read and therefore interact with more internal sources I would also need expertise in cultural nuance. The true underlying sentiment is unknown to me.
      The information we get is meant to make us feel upset with one group and sympathetic to another using the power of synonyms.
      You can't get news without sensationalism and agenda to some degree.
      Someone once told me if you want to know history, read between the lines of what the victors wrote.
      It's like that with the news.
      What are they trying to get me to think and why? How biased are their synonyms and "semantics" (which the subconscious takes literally). And this is just western media I'm talking about. The polarization builds and both sides fight dirtier now. Expect it to get worse in the future.
      As far as I'm concerned the world is a chess board, countries are just pieces, the Bilderberg Group and Trilateral Commission are the current players.
      Look at the size of Vanguard and Blackrock. Not only do they own a piece of everything, they also own a substantial piece of each other making for some interesting legal opacity and playful finger pointing.
      I think the people of China are every bit as docile as we are. Same stockholm syndrome, same beaten-dog syndrome. Gov't goes to scratch it's nose and we wince like we're about to be backhanded.
      I doubt the army and I doubt the people even more. Not their spirit, their organization.

  • @TechnoMinarchist
    @TechnoMinarchist Před 2 lety +13

    Civil conflict and warlording is pretty much what I see happening realistically myself. It's what tends to happen to China.

  • @letterofthelaw2567
    @letterofthelaw2567 Před 2 lety

    New intro. Love it!

  • @DL-nb9hp
    @DL-nb9hp Před 2 lety +3

    Funny you should mention the French Revolution, I saw a friend of mine in Shanghai posting a "do you hear the people sing" video on social media a couple of days ago.

  • @Supreme_Goldfish
    @Supreme_Goldfish Před 2 lety +40

    A nice treat after the Vaush debate, a surprise for sure but a welcome one!

    • @abdirahmanbadal781
      @abdirahmanbadal781 Před 2 lety

      Yeah

    • @ShnoogleMan
      @ShnoogleMan Před 2 lety

      I needed to get the bad taste out of my mouth. They were both so awful in that

    • @happytrees6484
      @happytrees6484 Před 2 lety +1

      How bad was the debate? As soon as I heard vaush say he wanted a debate I thought it would be a terrible idea. Then I heard it was happening and I don't know if it is worth my time.

    • @Supreme_Goldfish
      @Supreme_Goldfish Před 2 lety +2

      @@happytrees6484 It's Vaush, so no progress was actually made. But it was nice to see WIAH stand up to him and run circles around him. They were able to agree when it comes to healthcare and trains though. I thought it was fun, at the very least.

    • @bucherregaldomi9084
      @bucherregaldomi9084 Před 2 lety

      @@Supreme_Goldfish I kind of liked it too, minus the pseudo-intellectualism from WIAH, asking for a list of books instead of addressing the issue directly. That strategy can be used to avoid any direct debate, so I find it cheap. Not saying that Vaush was good, just saying I expected good from WIAH.

  • @sculpture_9498
    @sculpture_9498 Před 2 lety +10

    Oh damn, finishes a debate and posts a video in the same day

  • @andrewwong1146
    @andrewwong1146 Před 2 lety

    Nice work! With more time and research, you will get there soon. 4 stars!

  • @spandandasgupta5773
    @spandandasgupta5773 Před 2 lety

    I really love your videos, can you put a link of the graphs and maps used in the video because most of the time they are too blurry or small to read clearly.

  • @Desmuu
    @Desmuu Před 2 lety +114

    Even though I may disagree with some of your political views I still enjoy your content a lot. 🙂❤

    • @bucherregaldomi9084
      @bucherregaldomi9084 Před 2 lety +3

      Vaush viewer I see huh? :P

    • @Desmuu
      @Desmuu Před 2 lety +15

      @@bucherregaldomi9084 Idk who Vaush is but I saw the last 2 mins of their debate today lol

    • @sheltonyukevich7722
      @sheltonyukevich7722 Před 2 lety +2

      Tbh it kinda sucked for both people.

    • @AmirSatt
      @AmirSatt Před 2 lety +6

      His view of rationalism is completely wrong and sometimes he is very ignorant

    • @haidouk872
      @haidouk872 Před 2 lety +3

      @@AmirSatt well, we can honestly say that he's pretty ignorant about everything outside of North America.
      Which, in itself, isn't necessarily a bad thing. The problem is that he speaks as if he knew a lot and make wild and absurd predictions based on this ignorance. And most of his community just takes whatever he says as truth.

  • @azmodanpc
    @azmodanpc Před 2 lety +21

    The bit about Japan in the 80s and its massive real estate boom and bust really takes on a new meaning with Evergrande and now Shimao (and countless other we have little visibility about)

    • @hughmungus2760
      @hughmungus2760 Před 2 lety +6

      Japan in the 80s was already a rich country thats why a collapse in it's growth was perminant. China still has a large portion of the country thats developing which means room to grow. This is why despite whats going on, china was reported at growing 4.5% last quarter while the entire world is slipping into recession... again.

    • @azmodanpc
      @azmodanpc Před 2 lety +1

      @@hughmungus2760 With a shrinking and aging (working) population, already unaffordable housing costs, sub par median income (compared to first world countries) and sky rocketing labor costs, pray tell me, where is the room to grow? They already overbuilt for 20 years and while impressive, most of the high speed rail network is losing massive amounts of money due to corruption and costs. They pumped the made in china 2025 initiative and it stalled, they spent billions in the belt and road initiative and got..Not very much in return. I could go on but I just don't see a massive driver or room for growth in the next 20 years. Their chip manufacturing still lags behind Taiwan and Japan and they failed to bootstrap their own designs and production lines.

    • @J_X999
      @J_X999 Před 2 lety +1

      @@azmodanpc When it comes to 21st century technology and china, no one talks about it. Because they know China has a real good shot at being the leader in artificial intelligence, quantum tech etc.
      The made in China 2025 plan definitely did not stall, even if you prefer to think that way.

    • @azmodanpc
      @azmodanpc Před 2 lety +2

      @@J_X999 If that's your opinion regarding made in china 2025, something that the CCP doesn't even want to mention anymore (like the whole common prosperity propaganda), I'm fine. The part about technology I'm not so sanguine about. Like their military prowess, I can only see their propaganda and inflated numbers. Is China leading in quantum tech research? If the chip industry is an indicator, no, they are a couple of years behind and that's a fact. Their covid vaccine is less potent than the Western Imperialist made mRna one. And that is one of the reasons Xi is pushing these lockdowns. It sure made SinoFarm and other Chinese companies big bucks but that's another area where they are lagging behind other countries. I've seen plenty of drones and robots with loudspeakers shouting slogans and threats, though. That's some leading dystopian use of tech if I ever saw one.

    • @J_X999
      @J_X999 Před 2 lety

      @@azmodanpc China has the world's first quantum communication satellite system. Its been in use for a while now.
      If we look at china's 14th 5 year plan, we can clearly see artificial intelligence and technology like that as their top priority. They are dumping lots of money into tech and once the CCP inevitably collapses, that technology isn't just going to evaporate into thin air.
      Think about it, a democratic china ruled by let's say Taiwan, doesn't restrict people's creativity and doesn't use tech for dystopian crap etc. That's a world leader in 21st century technology.
      You've understood me wrong. I think Xi and the CCP will be gone very soon. But China itself and all their advancements will be world leading if it falls into the right hands.

  • @pedrosantos6183
    @pedrosantos6183 Před 6 měsíci +2

    Oh boy, this one aged badly.

  • @hesmycat
    @hesmycat Před 2 lety +2

    Like from a fellow Pennsylvanian 🙂

  • @hanoi9316
    @hanoi9316 Před 2 lety +13

    Best CZcams analysis . Every analysis overstimates or understimates China .

    • @Dark-sx3bd
      @Dark-sx3bd Před 2 lety +3

      Along with haters/wumaos saying:
      He doesn’t know what he’s talking about
      Or calling him arrogant

    • @didyoumissedmegobareatersk2204
      @didyoumissedmegobareatersk2204 Před 2 lety +2

      @@Dark-sx3bd spot on😂
      And yohh Social credit Meme also

  • @alejandropelayo9288
    @alejandropelayo9288 Před 2 lety +3

    I remember watching you at 20-30k subs. It's impressive how far your video quality has come

  • @michietn5391
    @michietn5391 Před 2 lety +2

    Enter Falun Gong, NTD (New Tang Dynasty).

  • @quirkyblingblingfangirl3278

    LOVE THE NEW INTRO MUSIC

  • @karlriina6950
    @karlriina6950 Před 2 lety +29

    I speak and read Chinese fluently.
    This video is insightful, it speaks in broad generalities which in general are accurate but always have exceptions, so take it with a grain of salt but it's basically right!
    WELL DONE!

  • @pressureteamtron
    @pressureteamtron Před 2 lety +32

    I wonder how you could do as a world leader lol " Whatifalthist rebuilt ____ country " would be an amazing series

  • @macgreeze8287
    @macgreeze8287 Před 2 lety

    Great episode 👏

  • @LanceMillerSeattle
    @LanceMillerSeattle Před 2 lety

    Very good work here, yes it’s the thin ice of predictions…and the writer works overtime with accessing arcs of history to supply the predictions. Very good.