What Labour's Policies Mean for Investors
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- čas přidán 26. 06. 2024
- At the moment there is optimism in the UK stock market and the general consensus seems to be in favour of a change of government. In this video, we’ll break down the effects of the Labour Party’s policies on UK investments both in the equity and bond markets. We’ll also dig into which sectors of the stock market could benefit and what tax challenges investors might face.
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction: Optimism in the UK Stock Market
00:29 Labour Party's Fiscal Plan
03:43 Impact on the UK Equity Market
07:04 Sector-Specific Benefits
11:13 Challenges for the Stock Market
14:00 Positives for the Bond Market
18:16 Tax Implications for Investors
20:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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If they touch ISAs in a negative way they are out in 5 years.
I wish that were true. Most voters are brainwashed into always voting for "their side" even if it hurts their own prosperity.
I don't think that many will care and just shout "tAx ThE rIcH" as if they ever do that when they hit the middle class.
No chance on 300K new dwellings unless tents are included, there isn't sufficient skilled construction labour in the UK now to build at that rate. Construction labour shortages are already hampering our current build rate. Blaming land-banking in itself, as all political parties do, is bogeyman politics, the problems are far more nuanced and deep rooted. If there aren't enough bricklayers, electricians, plumbers, plasterers, dry-liners, carpenters, joiners etc etc, at an affordable price, the rest is just noise.
Fantastic Ramin. That can't have been easy to research and prepare. One of your best ever vids I think
So pleased you enjoyed it @FixUp.LookSharp
So if they fail to gain growth by revenue, they'd likely increase taxes before increased bond issuance because bond issuance is essentially increasing government debt.
Please can you look at the other party's plans? Reform, Tory, LibDem etc...
I'm not sure how Labour are going to achieve growth by carrying on the same policies as are in place at the moment. Especially with tax levels at all time highs.
Reform
Hi @theenglandyoda I don't think there's much point given the polls at the moment (20 ppt lead for Labour). The Conservative manifesto is unlikely to see the light of day when it comes to actual policy. Thanks, Ramin.
@@MrFrobbo Reform has just had their manifesto financial plan assessed by the Tax reform group. They say that their plan is far too vague to assess properly, but it looked like it had a £38 billion hole in it. So think of the Lettuce budget on steroids.
Not worth assessing further really. Esp. as it is rather unlikely to see the light of day.
@@kevinu.k.7042 they have four years, the Tories and Labour are over.
@@MrFrobbo Mad election predictions aside one would hope that their plans would be updated before then.
Re-Pensions / SIPPS, noticeable absence on keeping the 25% tax free allowance on withdrawal, on keeping the existing 40% tax relief on contributions and no commitment to not reducing contribution limits or introducing some hybrid system that limits contributions eligible for tax relief. No commitment to exclude SIPP funds from inheritance tax. Pensions are a soft target for politicians of all persuasions, I'm old enough to remember Gordon Browns tax raid...........
Did anyone know that Starmer's father was a tool maker and his mother was a nurse?
Apparently his father made the last 3 Prime Ministers!
oh really how interesting 😐
Did you know Rishi didn’t have sky tv? Even though there is proof that he did as there was a sky dish above his parents pharmacy 😂
When did he say that?
any news on his wife?
Thank you so much for this video! You explain really well what we need to know about Labour Manifesto.
Thanks @laralsofia, I'm glad you found it helpful. Ramin.
Just because they say they will do something, doesn't mean it will happen. Most likely, very little will be done, and not much will change. Hope I am wrong
"Closing tax loopholes" is BS, as one reporter pointed out, all big party manifestos have that, its basicly a way to add free UNFUNDED spending plans into the same document. Vote for me, I will close tax loopholes for 3 trillions, I wont tell you how, I have no history of doing any of that on that scale - or any scale for that matter.
Well the tories have been in power for 14 yrs now and instead of making things better they've made everything a whole lot worse since 2010. We desperately need a change of government the tories will never change their policies which definitely aren't sustainable especially in the longer term, which is self evident now
@@fredatlas4396 That is irrelevant to the argument I am making. Obviously the Tories must go, that doesn't mean Labour doesn't have to be scrutinized.
@@MagicNash89 You are talking whataboutery. I think we need to stick to facts
@@fredatlas4396 That's exactly their point
@@badgasaurus4211 What point
The stock market has performed twice as well under a Conservative government as it has under Labour, according to performance statistics dating back to 1970.
When globalisation happens, gains have nothing to do with government policies of Britain. We just don’t have the same control on performance as the US. Also the reality is when it comes to companies both parties know not to cross the line. Lastly, are you also attributing the recent AI stock bubble to government policies?
@@NnamdiNwagree, at best you could try do a comparison to the FTSE but given most are global companies, it would be a tenuous correlation at best
But this time it’s going to be different… 😂
That's because whenever Labour are in charge they bankrupt Britain.
Shell are already actively looking at a NYSE listing .............BP will follow
What happens to the existing share holders if they move?
Really brilliant content! Great breakdown.
Glad it helped @rogerq7369
Thank you.
You're welcome @badkeiser
Very informative!
Great insights!
Thank you very much 🙏🏻
Whilst economic growth in the UK slowed after 2008, it did so in every G7 country. Indeed, the UK out has grown every G7 economy except the USA and Canada since 2010, and every G7 country except the USA and Germany in terms of real GDP per capita. I also think that the graph showing the slowdown in investment overstates the position. The trend from 2010 to 2015 reflects a rebound after the financial crisis, and not the the long term trend. In terms of investment as a percentage of GDP, investment has returned to the pre-referendum level.
Hi @martinsingfield UK real GDP growth was close to 2.5% from 1955-2008 then slowed down to 2.1% from 2009-2019. Since then it has hardly grown at all (0.4% from 2019 Q3 to 2024 Q1). So I don't think it's true to say that the higher rate in the past was due to the post-GFC rebound. GDP has grown 1% since the beginning of 2016 and business investment has grown by 0.8% over the same period. Thanks, Ramin
@@Pensioncraft I think you are mixing up the two points I made. Whilst it is true that the UK's economic growth slowed after 2008, this is also true of all the G7 countries and not just the UK. Indeed, the UK outgrew 4 of the G7 nations after 2008. If you produce the same graph showing real GDP at PPP constant international prices for each G7 nation, you'll observe a similar decrease in the angle of the line after 2008.Similarly, whilst UK economic growth has been even slower this year, this is equally true of most of the G7. Comparing individual years or quarters is pretty pointless anyway, and meaningful comparisons can only really be made over 5 to 10 year periods.
I made a separate point regarding the investment to GDP ratio. Most graphs I have seen attempt to extrapolate the increase in investment that occured once the financial crisis was over, without acknowledging that the increase reflected a rebound from the lows of 2009 & 2010. This rebound from from around 15% of GDP to around 18% of GDP (I don't have the figures immediately to hand), with the latter roughly matching the pre crisis level. It's easy to exaggerate any upward path by extrapolating up from the low point or any downward path by extrapolating down from a high point.
And that was because after 2008 the UK was still in the EU post Brexit the UK can not out compete the EU
@@CleverContrarian Both the IMF and OECD forecasts of economic growth (to 2029 and 2060 respectively) show the UK economy out-growing Germany, France and Italy (and indeed Japan). The EU is hobbled by terrible demographics and over regulation.
@@Pensioncraft You've overlooked the small matter of the pandemic and war in Ukraine, which both resulted in slower growth after 2019 for the UK and much of Europe. The UK has still outgrown Germany since the beginning of the pandemic. In terms of UK investment, it has returned to the same percentage of GDP as it was immediately prior to the financial crisis. It fell as a percentage of GDP post 2008 and then began to rise again in the years leading up to 2019 once the crisis was over. Most commentators extrapolate the rebound in these later years, when the upward trajectory was bound to slow once investment returned to roughly the same percentage of GDP as it was before the financial crisis.
More important than anything you have mentioned is UK National debt now 100% of GDP. Labour are not saying they will pay it down. It Dwarfs Brexit as an issue. Our debt repayments and the QE undertaken plus the BofE idiocy on keeping interest rates high and borrowing costly feeds inflation and keeps cost of living high. Growth will not come in these conditions.
In 97 first Labour budget they hammered pensions and slashed tax free savings allowances, not mentioned in the manifesto. I was 27 at the time and it's added years to my retirement date. My experience of Labour as a saver is prepare for an absolute shellacking on all fronts, don't be naive and think this time it will be different.
Hi @stevantunic511 that sounds like a grim experience. I feel a bit cynical about their ability to engineer growth and keep debt to GDP constant or falling, maybe that came across in the video? Thanks, Ramin
That's true. Changes in labour policies, tax policies, both domestically and internationally, can have significant implications for investors. It's crucial to work with financial advisors who understand these complexities and can help navigate them effectively.
Labour in London have a war on motorists and Labour in Wales also have a war on motorists. Therefore, I think that any investment (Property, shares etc) that favours public transport, or properties with good public transport links, will do well going forwards.
well this is what i am predicting CGT and Dividend Tax to the same rates of Income tax a cap of 100k on isa investments and pension tax relief 20% and i think CGT on private homes over 1 million pounds I hope I am wrong
Come the Autumn “something” will happen and the whole situation will change. The manifesto will be overtaken by events (whatever they will be) and they’ll be forced to do whatever is necessary ie whatever they like. Call me paranoid, but not until Christmas.
Hopefully the investment in the NHS includes performance incentives along with infrastructure.
The point regarding an extra 1.5m houses over five years is a mute one as you state, as:
a) others have tried without success, and
b) the incentives for housebuilders i.e. land banking enabling them to maximize supply/demand [and so prices], HTB and Stamp duty 'freezes' increasing values means there IS no incentive to reach these targets.
Having tried this 'Carrot' approach a number of times [and failed miserably] any new government of serious need to 'get the stick out'. Whether these choose to do this [and so spoil their chances of post-government directorships and/or party donations] is open to question, and will demonstrate if their manifesto promise is a genuine one.
Hi @teddyb4957 I'm dubious too - I think that's a very ambitious target and we've heard this now so many times that it's difficult to believe. Thanks, Ramin.
Good take. Thanks for this.
The entire Labour pitch is, we're going to do the same stuff as the Conservatives, and although it is the orthodoxy that has led us to a decade+ of collapsing living standards, it will be a wee change to have the people from the red team doing it to you.
How does high Corporation Tax benefit my UK equities?
If a political party was analysed as a business, what would be it's share price? Would it be a meme stock going to the moon or a hold stock with good fundamentals?
Read an FT article saying that National Grid pre-empted the effects of potential nationalisation with their latest play of "Rights issues" - which has totally shafted investors. I guess an argument not to invest in indvidual stocks (as per your last video!)
Do you see anything in there that'll adversely affect buy-to-let property owners?
Awesome review. Thank you. Can you do the same for the Conservative's policies?
Yes please!
I'm all for hedging against risks too. But some risks are so unlikely as to make it a poor ROI on the time investment.
No point, because they won't win
For retail investors, the biggest unknowns for a Labour Government would be how they plan to handle ISAs and SIPPs.
Labour's manifesto is blank on both and there has been some articles and rumour that they plan on capping ISAs at £100,000 and the removal of higher rate tax relief for SIPPs.
Socialism at work, steal from hard working people, give away via benefits and public gold plated pensions.
They will be voted out in 5 years if they pull that.
Then it won't happen - simple.
How can they cap an ISA to £100K if someone's ISA is above £100K seems a bonkers idea.
I guess these are some of the hidden taxes the Tories keep gong on about then The ISA thing would be a huge deal breaker for the long term investor.
What about them cancelling CGT and just taxing all gain as income? If they do how much notice are we likely to get?
Might be time for some strategic selling.
They've said they won't tax gain on main residence but they're refusing to comment on increasing the tax on all other gain.
There is not the water supply, nor the sewer capacity for 1.5 million new homes
The people still exist - and use water and create sewage in normal amounts. Water usage and sewage production depend on number of people. Not number of homes.
They could boost GDP and investment very easily - put us on a path to rejoining the EU, the growth that would provide would far out way any tinkering of the tax and revenue system and I think it's something that has gained more traction with the UK people over the last few years with the way the tories have botched it.
Thanks for the very thorough summary, Ramin. But let’s not forget a manifesto is designed to win votes, not necessarily a blueprint for government!
Interesting content... You seem to have left out their impact on real estate
When labour say "no tax increases for working people" I can't help reading that as "there will definitely be financial implications for retired people". Ignoring the fact that this pension "wealth" is an accumulation of hard earned savings supposed to support you for 25-30 years of retirement. They have form on this with Gordon Brown actions after the 1997 election. The conservatives had been also emphasising keeping people in the workforce longer. The plans to eliminate national insurance not really favouring retired folk. I suspect going forward things might not be so good for people hoping to retire early. There has been concern about how many people are out of the workforce for various reasons. Probably not going to be a disaster but I've been planning carefully for few years but I can see that some rumoured policy decisions could easily result in adding another year or two of work to my plans.
Theyll be out in 4 years dont worry
The wealth divide between retired and working has never been greater. Yes there are pensioners who are struggling but there are plenty who aren't. Pensioners shouldn't be exempt from the need to support the turnaround of the country.
I would challenge the notion that folks like me retiring early is ALL due to hard work. The stellar returns of the US/global markets over the last 10 years combined with very low inflation is at least a part of why those available for work is an issue. Taxation is never going to be popular, but labour's policies have for a few years been targeted at younger voters
@@hughiemg2 delusional! Many having spent 50 years contributing to UK's society and you're suggesting we continue and support infrastructure spend on anyone who comes in. I dont think so.
@@hughiemg2 pensioners are not exempt. They pay income tax. Yes there are tax breaks when contributing and some allowance when withdrawing. It is however quite scary to plan for 30 years of expenditure if you are unable to work due to age and health, can't predict what inflation will be, can't predict what investments will return, not sure what your health and care needs will be, how long you will live and worst of all what tinkering governments will do. We should all of us at any stage in life hope that some of the breaks older folk get will still be there when we arrive at that stage in life.
Promised spending by any party in any area is nothing if they don't have the income to pay for it. They all promise tax and NI cuts, so who is ploughing the money into the services they promise to improve? Where is it coming from?
Optimism in the UK stock market. 🤣🤣🤣
8-) Thanks, Ramin.
The things to worry about are the things they have not told us rather than the things they do tell us in their manifesto. What are they going to do with ISA and pension allowances. One thing for sure is they will need to raise more money from somewhere
Great analysis Ramin. Pleased to see you highlight Brexit and the negative impact….not something the main parties or media are talking about.
Remoaners still going, seriously! We never achieved Brexit, just a faced, we will with big Nige in 4 years
The Remain establishment has done all it can to undermine Brexit (and therefore have tried to undermine democracy) and don’t forget Tony Blair urged Macron to give the UK a bad deal so millions of us have no trust in Labour.
So why is it that BP and Shell share price didn't react at all on Thursday when the manifested was announced?
Is it already baked in because it's been heavily telegraphed?
BP and Shell have dropped over recent weeks but that's connected to oil prices.
Also, do they really want to finally push BP and Shell leave and list over the pond. They've been threatening this recently.
Strategic energy independence is fine but still no mention of expanding nuclear power generating capabilities.
yeah, lets kickstart growth by increasing taxes😂😂
This is labour!
Yet we are being taxed more than ever under the Tories with little to show for it....
Hope over experience
The repeated emphasis on not raising taxes for *working* people is sinister. I think they'll hit private pensions with an additional levy. After all, we pensioners aren't workers, are we? And hey, a levy isn't a tax, is it?
As much as I am hopeful for a Labour government, I cannot see how any government can reverse 14 years of Tory economic, political and social ineptitude, and I use ineptitude to be generous. However, we will see, and the long road to recovery has to start with a single step.
😂😂😂
That is a worryingly inaccurate misanalysis of history. Cameron inherited the wildly profligate and unaffordable social spending of Gordon Brown (which admittedly they should have had the courage to rein back and didn’t), and he and Osborne had to haul us back from both that and the disastrous GFC.
Just as things were starting to balance again the country voted for Brexit which upset things again. Just as we were coming to terms with that the catastrophe of Covid hit and we are still trying to recover from that now that most workers are claiming to be working from home whilst in reality scrolling through Instagram all day.
Truss was ineptitude, but for the rest of those 14 years we have had decent chancellors trying to balance the books in the face of enforced ruinous expenses.
The main thing I'm praying for is affordable housing. No more sacrificing money to the landlord deities please 🙏
The problem is you are taking everything they said in their manifesto as set in stone.
The line of 'we have no plans to do xyz' was telling. Not ruling it out is almost the same as saying it's almost a matter of time before they do it
What they don’t talk about, is tackling the inefficiency in the civil service as a way of achieving more with less.
I’ve worked with and within the civil service for years, and I’m continually astonished at the lack of accountability, careless regard and frankly irresponsible way in which the public money is spent. I’d welcome any of the parties tackling that
Governments of every party have tried to tackle actual or perceived inefficiencies in the public sector, whether thats the Civil Service or NHS. They've tried to do the same with the welfare state and all they've managed to do is kill off a few hundred thousand people, worsen health outcomes and overall inequality for everyone which ironically has helped drive costs higher. I suppose the current Government would call that a stunning sucess...
Ramin for PM 🙌🏽
I think it is wrong to attribute the USA's larger fiscal expansion (relative to the UK) to higher economic growth. While the US economy is growing faster than the UK economy, the rate of the USA's fiscal expansion far exceeds its growth rate. The USA is running a much larger fiscal deficit than the UK, and it's total government debt is increasing as a percentage of GDP. It is higher borrowing rather than higher growth that is funding the expansion. Borrowing which is probably unsustainable in the long term. .
Why do the default pension funds already have a large UK bias, a large overweighting to UK equities. My Aegon Default fund used to be something like 27%, UK. I really wish I'd realised I could have moved out of it & into a 100% equity index fund like HSBC ftse all world index fund or fidelity index world p fund or even the HSBC American index fund and got much better returns. But I think it's too late now to go 100% equity as I'm about 6 or 7 yrs from retirement hopefully. If average wages go up significantly under Labour that would surely boost the economy and lead to more tax revenue coming into the treasury to help pay for investment into public services etc
Hi @fredatlas4396 that's a historical bias I often see in UK work pension schemes i.e. a 30% UK allocation like Vanguard LifeStrategy funds. A bit of domestic bias isn't necessarily a bad thing e.g. see "Has Vanguard Got It Wrong?" czcams.com/video/pQNaSEhJNbs/video.htmlsi=zS8VnPdyX0FkkBgr. Thanks, Ramin.
There are studies showing 50% international and 50% being the ideal, back tested over 100s years for all ages. The reason cited is currency exchange plays a significant part. See Ramins video on challenging the status quo.
Taxes will not increase “FOR WORKING PEOPE” . I’m sure they will pass emergency budget initially then come back and say it’s worse than thought and we need sweeping new taxes. It’s not going to be 1997, changing the blue for red still needs 5-10 years and lots of luck.
Spot on! What they say and what they do (blaming of course the precious government) are always different
Would be good if there was 1 for conservatives too at some point
Hi @BP-fz3ft thanks for your comment. If the polls were a bit closer I'd certainly consider it. But as it stands I think the Conservative Manifesto isn't likely to be relevant. Thanks, Ramin
@@PensioncraftReform then?
Sorry, only kidding...I think.
@@Mallarkeymaybe at the next election in 5 years 😂
@@Mallarkey Reform are the second party and will be the opposition
@@voice.of.reason they will only get 1/10 as many MPs, and that's the 'worst-case' maths.
Even if they came second in the popular vote. They are picking up as many Labour voters as Conservative voters, just in different parts of the country. Hence launching their manifesto/contract in Labour heartland in Wales. I'm not saying should/shouldn't I'm just saying they won't be the official opposition.
Not one of your best , sadly, Ramin.
a. Growth stalled for 4yrs after the Brexit vote, probably because the govt didn't make any changes worth mentioning, but sine 2020 has generally trended up at a similar rate to to pre-Brexit.
b. House builders probably won't benefit from Labour plans to build more homes, because they'll be a lot less profitable if that were not the case they'd have been building more for years.
c. Wind energy at around 30% is probably approaching full capacity given the lack of the technology to store and use it, building more wind turbines won't help.
Solar? Not in the UK, have you stepped outside for the last six months! Nuclear is the only proven technology at the moment and they won't even start to do that because of the left/green wing of the party, not even allowing for the 10/15yr lead time for nuclear power stations.
The increased Windfall tax on energy companies, tiny at about 2% above the existing levels, was baked in to UK shares prices months ago.
.....and that was where I turned off.
Sadly, we're due for a massive hit on Capital gains tax, wealth taxes, etc, even if Starmer isn't deposed by the extremists within months of the inevitable election win.
Ramin, I'm younger than you, and already feel cynical. I hope this is for ur best. As ine of the other comments say, we need to get these people jailed for promises that do not materialise. Fingers crossed, to a better future 😅
We should have a system where we penalise politicians or party (Banning or Jailing) them if they fail to meet their mandate. For far too long politicians have only served their donor class. Here we are again being promised change by Labour but I can bet every dollar that I have nothing will change for taxpayer and normal citizen (maybe for worse)
UK should become an AI superpower with all the brains we have at.Oxbridge. Need to build some battery gigasites and semi conductor fabs. Need to swerve away from old-world stocks and economy. Join in the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Unfortunately we don’t pay the same salary equivalent for these tech roles in the UK, so those super talented guys just end up in the states and I don’t blame them. Why earn £80k here when I can earn £500k in the states (with medical insurance provided by the company)
Oxbridge educated isn't a magic bullet. There is plenty of talent at other universities. There are talented individuals that havn't been to university that are self taught. Investing in schools and college as well as tech hubs where people can bounce off ideas and forge connections as well as access to finance would be great.
Ramin. If creating growth was as easy as government spending more money then we'd all be rolling in it by now. I'm pretty sure that your optimism is misplaced.
Tory austerity policies since 2010. Where have you been if they'd followed more Labour policies and invested in our country instead of just slashing funding for all public services and cutting taxes for big corporate businesses and the wealthy things would be much better now
@@fredatlas4396Same place as you. It's been lala land under the Tories but it's nothing to do with so called austerity ('cause that really got the debt down didn't it?).
@@richardh7681 Didn't it just 🙄
Don't forget the ongoing yearly increases in tax revenue since 2020 when the government froze the personal tax allowance and the 40% tax band threshold. Plus the con-servatives have been slashing corporation tax since 2010, which has discouraged UK businesses to reinvest profits back into their businesses. So I think a good strategy would be to increase corporation tax which would encourage more investment into large UK firms and would help increase growth
Spread betting accounts not taxed.
ISA tax raids, Pension lifetime limits.. capital gains tax hikes. Yippee 😢
I like how your trying to be optimist for when Labour take over. Punishing companies with special tax becuase they had a good year is going to make them move to somewhere more stable and predictable. Adding extra tax to private education is going to force many to move there kids back in to state education putting teachers and posibly schools out of jobs, more kids in over stretched state schools will not help anyone. Thanks to that new non dom rule the rich are already moving out to countries that have better tax rules for them. If they really want growth they need to provide a place where business's can flourish and want to move to.
Tories or Labour, not much difference
The stock market has performed twice as well under a Conservative government as it has under Labour, according to performance statistics dating back to 1970.
Yah was going to say the same, both talk crap and implement F'all. Gold medal can kickers.
Might as well vote Labour then; at least we'll hear voices of people who did not do PPE or The Classics at Oxbridge which would be a nice change 😀
@@bumblebee9288if you are invested in global investment funds or the S&P do you really think the British government is going to have a big impact on performance?
Pie in the sky.. duck! there's a low flying cornish pasty heading Your way!
It’s a frightening prospect that they’ll force UK pension funds to invest in the projects the idiots themselves have chosen. Nanny state Labour always seek to intervene in every aspect of everyones life and they usually mess it up. As always, the people that lose out are those at the bottom.
Well Brown raided the pensions before, so they will do it again.
MPs pensions should be invested in UK stock market before they force it on the rest of us...
@@richard3667 - That wouldn’t really effect them because they have the most hugely generous defined benefit scheme of any UK employees. They’ll get the same regardless. The little people with comparatively shitty defined contribution schemes are the ones who will suffer lower growth and a poorer retirement.
Yet they are simply following the same plan already laid out by the nanny state Tories...
all sounds like on the 5th the whole of the UK will be better off
No point building EVs is the country is flooded with half price Chinese cars.
Great British railways!! Don’t make me laugh. This will be a delight to the unions, it will be strike after strike.
Hi @davideyres955 I remember those barely survivable cheese sandwiches available from British Rail buffet cars when I was a lad. It's hard to think of that as a golden age... Thanks, Ramin.
Things not in the manifesto, but I think Labour will do are:
1) Inheritance tax on SIPPs - Reeves said she would do this when the Tories first scrapped the lifetime allowance.
2) Introduce a minimum required drawdown (say 4% of fund value per year) for SIPPs on reaching normal retirement age. This is already the case in the US and Ireland and probably other jurisdictions too, so why not?
I see Labour are now making noises about CGT. So I think it's also likely we will see some changes there.
Yay for banning drilling & coal!
Higher power/heating prices will definitely help the UK economy.
😂😂😂 spot on
Urr reality check, recent price rises in your energy bills was caused by an over reliance on a volatile fossil fuel market. If anything renewables helped to soften the blow, there are energy tariffs available where it gets cheaper overnight due to the installed wind power we have
@@mst4314 🤣🤣🤣 are you a joker or in the world I live in?
@MrFrobbo is there a coherent, well reasoned counter point you would like to make at all or is that it?
@@mst4314 no point, many are lost, eco is a pocket lining facade for those near the money printer, the cantellion effect in motion plus control of populations ensuring natural resources remain for the elite.
Lol. "Windfall" tax
They got no choice but to spend more money. Sovereign debt crisis is on the horizon.
Although there hasn’t been any mention of it I hope that after gaining power, Labour takes Britain back into the Single Market which will mean a huge boon for trade particularly for SMEs and a boost for the economy overall.
Asset prices down, interest rates up?
As the US declines alongside losing the status of the world's currency, the money printers will light up, so everything everywhere else is irrelevant. Ensure you have plenty of US stocks in growth markets, follow the money. VG S&P500, solved.
GDP per head on a serious decline, here's the white elephant 😂 and the UK tanks
Should have bought Bitcoin.
Labour will probably do us investers no favours, but the people who have suffered most under tory rule will be better off. Im happy to be 10% worse off , if the country looked after its people better.
I disagree much of your analysis, too much emphasis on assumptions that Labour behaves like Labour, this is a conservative party, NHS policies are more Conservative than the Tories, the windfall tax has a huge negative effect because it is a stealth tax, Starmer is turning energy companies into tax collectors (people will simply be paying a hiden energy tax through their energy bills). Not to mention the biggest assumption of them all is that Labour will do what is in the manifesto - given Keir Starmer's record on pledges, mission, steps e.g. NHS outsourcing, tuition fees, climate spend etc etc
Liz Truss £30 billion spaffed up the wall!
Feel sorry for the younger generations who have opened their ISA/LISA/SIPPs with excitement and optimism that they were doing the right thing to provide for themselves and their families in the future, only to watch as bitterness, jealousy and idealism shut the door on the same allowances and tax relief that older people took for granted.
If people think that Starmer, Rayner, Reeeves and the likes of Nandy are at all interested in "growing the economy" (doesn't get any more generic than that) and "creating wealth" (none of them have ever ran a business or had a proper job in their lives) - are kidding themselves.
Its going to be years of nasty, bitter, revenge fantasy policies. The bile has been building in Rayner her whole life.
All you can do is find whoever has a chance of beating Labour in your constituency, and if that means voting Tory, Reform or even Libdem you do it.
Otherwise we could have 20 years of this!
Starmer ran the Crown Prosecution Service and Reeves used to work for the Bank of England; if those are not proper jobs I'm not sure what is.
Notes on previous PM's:
Sunak - Hedge Fund Manager
Truss - Accountant
Johnson - Journalist
May - Bank of England
Cameron - Marketing
@@Boghopper9999 Yeah I know Reeves spent nearly 10 years at the BOE, and still doesn't understand money. And you think Starmers record at the CPS in the UK is one to be proud of? Really?
Please note I didn't defend the tories, but unfortunately the people of the UK can no longer "win" at the ballot box.
You can only choose the least worst option.
One last thing, and consider this : this incoming government is now going to be taxing education.
And no I wasn't privately educated.
During all the periods in office of Labour Governments since the War, equity shares have performed poorly. This happened in 1945-51, 1964-70 and 1974-79 when indices showed losses of 8%, 13% and 11% respectively after adjusting for inflation
What about when Blair came to power in 1997 & the period thereafter?
You’ve not mentioned this period?
What about stock market performance from 1997 up until 2010 under the last Labour government. And the UK stock market has performed terribly since 2010 and the tories supposedly running our country
@@VoiceOfThe It didn't fit his narrative,
Fiscal drag means that taxes will increase massively for working people. I think a good way to increase investment is for cash ISAs to be scrapped. Billions of pounds are languishing in cash savings accounts that don't keep up with inflation.The government is just encouraging this with the cash ISA.
Energy / electricity blackouts to follow !
Renewable energy will always be more expensive because there will always be the need for a backup parallel system, running on fossil fuels and maintained at great cost, to use when the sun doesn't shine or the wind doesn't blow.
It's not that simple. You're absolutely right that we need contingency plans for when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. That could be fossil fuels or batteries, or modular nuclear, or something else. A diverse energy mix also helps, tidal and hydroelectric can be planned for far in advance, it's possible to open dams at specific times of the day. Batteries may or may not become competitive at scale, or could be incentivised at a household level. There is already good work being done switching from rare metals, but there are question marks that remain.
However, the ideal that this backup system must *necessarily* cost a lot, and therefore that renewable energy + backups must cost more than fossil fuels alone, doesn't hold. That would be true if the cost of powering up a fossil fuel station was exorbitant, in which case running on fossil fuels would be cheaper than switching from renewables to fossils and back again. Powering up a nuclear power plant is very tricky. Coal takes a long time. Natural gas is faster and cheaper. You could also be right if many many fossil fuel power stations need to be maintained for the occasional power-up, but that isn't a given either. It all depends on the mix of which renewables, how much battery storage, what battery tech, and whether nuclear or gas becomes easier to switch on and off. What we have seen is a massive decline in renewable energy costs and battery costs over the past 15 years. Whether that continues is uncertain, but there's reason to be hopeful. There is at least good economic reason to include *some* renewable capacity into the grid.
Fingers crossed that they transition intelligently.
In other words, as always, Labour are guaranteed to be an absolute disaster.
Labour will be positive for the stock market 😂😂😂😂 get real please you are delusional if you believe that
Historically it doesn’t make much difference to market who’s in charge 🤷🏻♂️
@@Desmond.TuTu. you are totally incorrect
@@Desmond.TuTu.The stock market has performed twice as well under a Conservative government as it has under Labour, according to performance statistics dating back to 1970.
@@Desmond.TuTu.do your research
@@bumblebee9288 The answer is invest anywhere but the UK
Predictions? Tax relief on pensions will drop to 10% on contributions and the ISA allowance will go from £20,000 to £10,000 then perhaps £5000 the year after with zero allowance on dividends or capital gains in unprotected portfolios.
Pension allowance I assume will drop to 40k as that’s easier to implement. I’m piling in now just in case. I think property related taxes I where they will go, stamp duty
Totally agree we need a new party I am willing to give Reform a chance xx
Gordon Brown announced the introduction of the ISA back in 1999. Labour government as I remember.
Reducing tax relief on pensions seems to be the rumour. And Reeves has supported this in the past. Some candidates have advocated for capping the ISA tax free allowance at £100k overall!!
It's not what's in their manifesto that's worrying me, it's what they've left out. If they do either of the above, it's a disaster.
@@pmbuk80During all the periods in office of Labour Governments since the War, equity shares have performed poorly. This happened in 1945-51, 1964-70 and 1974-79 when indices showed losses of 8%, 13% and 11% respectively after adjusting for inflation
Please if you are going to make a video about a labour government do your research a simple Google of labour and the performance of the stock market illustrates perfectly how abysmal they are
How much are you being paid and by whom? same rubbish posted umpteen times...
There now follows a party political broadcast on behalf of the Labour Party… Usually a huge fan of your videos Ramin, but just recently your political views are beginning to overshadow your insightful and informative markets and financial product knowledge. Stick to what you are great at Ramin, explaining and educating. If I want political messages I’ll read the Guardian!
Never once in the video did you mention the increase in CGT from 19pence to 25pence which will have a huge impact on investors return. I watch your channel religiously, but now I will unsubscribe and only watch your videos that CZcams show and that are relevant to me.
BBC News - No plans to increase capital gains tax, Labour says www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65122284 "Labour has no plans to increase capital gains tax, the party's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has said"
@@Pensioncraftthanks. Is that just CGT on houses or does that include investments too (like crypto)
@@Pensioncraft
‘Has no plans to’ is not the same as will not.Did you not watch Yes Minister?
@@george6977 it would be difficult to make a 22m video about what a government *could* do though. That's endless. Makes sense to start with what we have seen and heard. Of course you're right that promises can be broken. That's always true.
@@Pensioncraft Forgive my mistake it should have been Corporation Tax rising from 19% to 25% not Capital Gains tax.
Honestly your labour government optimism is ridiculous
We all know what Labour is going to do, print loads of new money and hand it out in benefits.
The gbp is going to sink, go into gold. By the time labour is finished I guarantee gbpusd will be under 1.00
Isn't printing loads of new money what all the countries have been doing? You clearly haven't followed the US closely either.
Labour will bring a gradual return to stability and growth
They will take us to bankruptcy like they did last time they were in office and the time before that as well
Good joke. Thanks for sharing. :)
Not sure about that. Have a feeling they are going to spend like crazy, this will result in diluting our currency.
Vote Reform UK.
Oh i forgot Ramin doesn't believe in historical data and thinks that Warren Buffet is wrong by saying all you need is an S&P500 passive tracker is all you need instead you should go for a much poorer performing global index 😂😂😂😂
Let’s all hope and pray tories win
Yeah right, the last fourteen years have been an absolute blast. The country will most definitely not be voting Tory.
No way, I'm not voting for those socialist Tories again who broke all their promises. Vote reform
I think Reform is worth a try Tories and Labour are both useless out for own interests only
If you have £10m+ in assets maybe you should hope for that
Have you got a bet on them being in power in 2025 that you placed back in 2010 then?