Dr. Simon Michaux: “Minerals and Materials Blindness” | The Great Simplification #19
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- čas přidán 26. 06. 2024
- On this episode, we meet with Associate Professor of Geometallurgy at the Geological Survey of Finland, Dr. Simon Michaux.
Why do humans ignore important mineral and material limits that will affect human futures? Dr. Michaux reveals how we are “minerals blind” - and the consequences of this myopia.
To shed light on the effects of our minerals blindness, Dr. Michaux explores the disconnect between experts in renewable energy and economic and government leaders.
Dr. Michaux offers individual strategies for us to overcome our energy and minerals blindness. How can we learn to adapt in order to overcome the coming challenges?
Dr. Simon Michaux is an Associate Professor of Geometallurgy at the Geological Survey of Finland. He has a PhD in mining engineering. Dr. Michaux’s long-term work is on societal transformation toward a circular economy.
Show Notes - (linked notes at www.thegreatsimplification.co...)
00:45 - Simon Michaux info + works
01:10 - Energy Blind
02:58 - Mintech
03:11 - Geometallurgy
08:10 - Fossil energies are finite
08:15 - Mineral resources are finite
09:30 - Volcanic reproduction of minerals
10:25 - The fourth industrial revolution
14:20 - Coking coal
15:08 - Low carbon steel
15:59 - Scalability
17:11 - It takes decades to build a grid of new plants
19:40 - 19 terawatt powered society
20:44 - In general we’re adding 1-2 nuclear power plants per year
22:19 - Nuclear cannot scale up fast enough to replace fossil fuels
22:51 - Base metals are recycled at 30-60% and technology metals don’t get recycled at all
24:09 - Circular economy
25:20 - Resource balanced economy
26:42 - Quantitative easing
29:26 - Availability of uranium and thorium
30:50 - Energy properties
32:22 - Cobb Douglas Function
32:50 - Generation IV nuclear power
35:15 - 2018 Peak Oil
38:10 - Extracting copper will become more difficult
40:28 - Renewables: Right answer to the wrong question
32:35 - Minerals in a wind turbine (2-ton neodymium magnet)
43:28 - ⅓ of current system will be electrified according to the European commission
43:43 - There’s not enough time or materials to mine and replace lithium to meet goals by 2030
46:07 - Brandenburg, Germany 100% renewable by 2030
52:03 - Manufacturing and raw material production in Russia and China
52:38 - Natural gas in Europe comes from Russia
53:50 - Liquifying and unliquifying gas loses 30% of energy properties
58:04 - Peak coal 2013 and peak gas 2019
1:03:10 - Paul Ehrlich info + TGS Episode
1:03:20 - Industrial fertilizer
1:03:40 - We’ve lost 40% of arable land since 1960
1:05:45 - Cuban response to oil embargo
#SimonMichaux #NateHagens #TheGreatSimplification
I was born in 1949. I never realized how fortunate I was until now. Those born in 2049 will be facing a reality that my generation could not have imagined. My sincere best wishes are extended to those unsuspecting innocents.
Thank you for at least trying to understand and appreciate the struggle of future generations. Unfortunately almost every person (including my parents) from your generation has said the same thing to me… “I’ll be dead by then so it’s not my problem.”
It would help quite a bit if yall could die off within the next 5 years, if you could all drink battery acid daily we can save a good 10% to 15% energy requirements and since you've already used enough resources for your life and about 20 generations on top of that by doing everything as wasteful as possible then pull up the ladder behind you this isn't that much to ask.
Simon Michaux's paper relies on a number of false assumptions.
1. EUROPEAN WINTERS ARE NOT GLOBAL: His paper is all based on a 2014 studies about specifically European renewables getting through a cold dark winter. But most of the human race lives much closer to the equator where there is no winter. Michaux plucks this 4 weeks out of context and applies it to the world. Talk about overkill!
2. OVERBUILD SOLVES WINTER: The studies he's quoting are 10 years out of date, back when renewables were 10 TIMES more expensive! Overbuilding the grid was economically impossible. European studies thought they needed 4 weeks of storage to get through winter. But today renewables are so cheap we can Overbuild the grid. EG: If your wind and solar output halves during winter, then simply build DOUBLE your wind and solar! Spread the weather risk over huge geographic regions, majoring in wind up north and solar down in southern Europe. HVDC transmission is cheap enough, and only loses 1% per 1000km. EG: Spanish solar could easily shoot power all the way up to Finland. Michaux just ignores Overbuild. As he does all the points below!
3. When you DO need a few days storage, use OFF-RIVER pumped hydro which are much cheaper than metal batteries. A good pumped hydro site should be over 600 or 700 metres high - because if you triple the height between 2 reservoirs, you halve the cost. Pumped hydro is the cheapest way to store grid power for DAYS. But Michaux rejects pumped-hydro by claiming there are difficulties finding enough sites. Really? His 1000 page PDF doesn't reference a source - but he shares it here. czcams.com/video/LBw2OVWdWIQ/video.html
Get this. Michaux cherry-picked a PHES viability study about SINGAPORE! I laughed out loud when I heard him admit that. Their highest hill is only 15 metres. Gee - I wonder why they had trouble finding enough sites!? I call this dumb trick “Painting the world Singapore.” Professor Andrew Blakers from the ANU presents the REAL story. Most countries have 100 times the sites they need. If they don't, a neighbour does. czcams.com/video/_Lk3elu3zf4/video.html They have identified the 616,000 best sites around the world. re100.eng.anu.edu.au/global/
Off-river pumped hydro is cheaper than on-river, can be built faster, and you pump the water in later from a river dozens of kilometres away and cover it with solar panels to reduce evaporation. There are greenfield sites where both reservoirs are off-river, or Bluefield where you build one next to another already existing river - but not ON it. Australia has 1500 Bluefield sites - but the top 3 would provide DOUBLE what we need!
re100.eng.anu.edu.au/2022/11/11/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs/
4. SODIUM BATTERIES COULD DO HIS HYPOTHETICAL 4 WEEKS : Sodium is less fire prone, less toxic, and 30% cheaper than lithium, making it perfect for home or grid scale batteries. 1 ton of sodium battery could run a large family’s home for 5 days. The ocean stores a ridiculously huge 38.5 quadrillion tons, which is enough to hypothetically store THE WORLD'S ELECTRICITY GRID for 152,173 years! Or to flip it around, A WHOLE YEAR of the world's electricity would take just 0.0006% of the ocean’s salt! Michaux published in August 2021 and claimed Sodium batteries were still in the lab. But the first orders had been placed over a year before he published. When making extraordinary claims, one should take extraordinary care to get the facts right!
faradion.co.uk/faradion-receives-first-order-of-sodium-ion-batteries-for-australian-market/
5. ALL RENEWABLES CAN BE MADE FROM ABUNDANT MATERIALS: Sometimes renewables use rare earth’s for a specific performance boost - but this is usually a more expensive niche market. Michaux just cherry-picks these and ignores all the 'plainer' brands.
EG: 95% of Solar brands use silicon - which is 27% of the Earth’s crust. Wind is made from iron (5%), aluminium (8%) and fibreglass (renewable glass fibres and renewable polyester resins). Half of Tesla’s batteries are LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate). The USGS reserves from 2022 show we have TEN TIMES the lithium we need for a world of 1.4 billion LPF EV's. China’s BYD “Seagull” even has an EV that uses SODIUM batteries! I’ve collected evidence here. eclipsenow.wordpress.com/materials/
6. All the alt-right climate sceptics and alt-left Peak Oil Doomer renewables sceptics will be SHOCKED at how fast the Energy Transition kicks in. Wind and solar are now the cheapest power we've ever enjoyed, period. Even with extra HVDC transmission and batteries and PHES. Their growth is exponential. Solar is doubling every 4 years! Wind seems to be doubling about every decade. Australia will be 80-90% renewables by 2030. 10% of all cars sold are EV’s. Electric Semi's are now a thing, with Tesla with their dinky little 40 ton truck, and Janus Australia doing 100 ton Road-Trains with a 1 minute-battery swap! It’s starting, and will only accelerate. We have the potential to leave all fossil fuels way before they leave us. Michaux must know this to be forced to reach for such ridiculous strawman arguments to support his Doomsday fantasies.
@@eclipsenow5431 Not sure what type of agenda your running here, scared to face the facts perhaps? As an exploration geologist who sits at the coal face of understanding critical metal supply working in copper mining and exploration across the planet, there is a massive supply problem here... Simply put, ending fossil fuel reliance just ain't going to happen. There's not enough copper reserves. Good to see someone like Michael bring the facts to the public sphere. We've all been led up the garden path on this problem.
@@eclipsenow5431 Overbuilding variable renewables makes the low EROI abysmally worse.
Well done Nate and Simon. I was very impressed with the report that Simon produced for the Finnish Geological Survey about 18 months ago and I refer to it often. I also agree with your conclusion that the organisation of society will be very different in 50->100 years and that, based on past performance, it seems unreasonable to be hopeful that there will be widespread recognition and sober adjustment ahead of this energy brick wall. Replacing fossil fuels is the most wicked of problems that we face and the more you think it through, the less reason there is for optimisim.
"Some problems are so complex that you have to be highly intelligent and well-informed just to be undecided about them." - Laurence J. Peter.
You raised some valid shortcomings of nuclear energy but there are also reasons to shortlist a nuclear build-out as one of our better options for adjusting to the end of fossil fuels. It doesn't tick every box and there are some economic, engineering and societal challenges to work through and it certainly is not a quick fix...but the technology warrants more careful consideration.
I'm curious about the type of response do you get from policy makers when you bring this to their attention (to the extent they let you anywhere near them).
Great work Gents.
A little nuance: at 54:15 it is stated that electronuclear production is flat. In the US it is flat, but not in France.
Because 70% of French electricity comes from nuclear, France has to use nuclear power to follow the load. Power gradient (watts put online per second) is of course much less than a gas turbine, but the flexibility of nuclear plants in France is not that far from that of a coal plant. I've read that some French nuclear plants cycle twice a day between 20% and 90% of their capacity to follow the load.
It probably has implications on maintenance, cost, and maybe even lifetime of equipment, but it is possible, and has been done extensively in France.
Thanks for the talk, good information on very important topics !
Another great conversation and a wonderful guest. Thank you Nate and Simon for your positive outlook on how we should keep a learner's mindset and be of service to our communities in the future.
Thanks Nate for your authenticity and often vulnerability in these interviews. I've become a regular listener and I am so thankful and blessed for this work you do.
The best explanation of the future trouble ever, thanks guys.
Listened twice to get my mind wrapped around all the lack of possible energy sources. I still believe in my mind that we need to start teaching DC power, wiring, solar install to 8th graders. We do not need to rebuild the failing grid. If we have no grid it can't be a target. Small power plants for industry and hospitals ? Recycling all the current power lines? Current linemen retrained to do residential solar install? Teach minimalist life style in home economics? ....
I started living minimalist roughly speaking by accident in the last few years. No washing machine, fridge, tv., car. The electricity bills are mostly standing charges. The big problem is an effective way to heat the house in winter. Otherwise it made me realise an awful lot of the stuff we have and habits of mind and routine that has built up round consumption is a treadmill we could easily do without.
could geothermal be a power source for larger structures?
@@liamhackett513 How do you do without a fridge? That's one thing that I feel is essential.
@@LukeGeoDude just go to local shops when I need stuff. Not having a fridge prevents you from stockpiling, haven't much food lying around in cupboards either. As such very little food is wasted. They are surprisingly easy to live without. Didn't plan this at all, just slipped into without realising. Got used to it not being around after a house move . the simplicity and way cheaper electricity bills converted me. Don't know but we're so immersed in the trappings of consumption we can't see beyond it. A lot of what we think are necessities, aren't.
@@jjuniper274 geo thermal long johns?
Really great episode Nate, well done, and definitely would love to listen to more from Simon and what his unique purview has to offer us, really found this one to be time well spent. Thank you.
Michaux rightly points out that education is the key but a careful analysis of education practice over the last two centuries shows very clearly that the main concerns have been nation-building and ideology promotion, with a side of making sure citizens are comfortable slotting into the economic hierarchy we have built. A huge majority of people have had the kinds of innovative thinking we need and most humans are born with simply educated out of them. This was necessary for the kinds of society we built up until now. But it's absolutely *not* what we need moving forward.
The problem is that on the right they think we need more of the same and on the left we should "trust the teachers". The teachers are a huge part of the problem, because they don't have the skills to think in any other way, and will obviously strenuously resist moving to a system where they lose all their experience and prestige. Ivan Illich talked about the problems and put out some very interesting solutions over 50 years ago. It's about time we started thinking about implementing them!
"people have had the kinds of innovative thinking we need and most humans are born with simply educated out of them" - a popular myth from the 1960s that is still hanging around but which is unsupported by evidence. The reality is that human intelligence, once that annoying Flynn Effect has been controlled for, has been declining since back in Victorian times, driven almost exclusively by increased education and opportunities for women. The average European who is at the 50th percentile today probably would have been at only the 15th percentile circa 1870 or so. The biggest negative effect is from delayed fertility among the more educated and career oriented women, with differences in lifetime fertility being a weaker contributor. Because Conscientiousness (work ethic, orderliness, rule following behavior, ambition, goal setting, self control, etc.) is also strongly correlated with educational attainment, it has probably declined dramatically as well.
Intelligence and personality factors are biological traits, their transmission is heavily genetic with the rest being a combination of test error and chance environmental factors, and their level in the population is not constant but changes over time, sometimes rapidly, as a result of differential fertility. The Flynn Effect is not on general intelligence but on other factors (including basic test taking skills which can be taught) and does not affect all forms of testing. Furthermore, genetic decay occurs more easily than genetic enhancement, on account of entropy. Thus, people need to abandon their "essentialist thinking" in regard to the human race and its sub-populations. Variation is the norm both within and between human populations, and not only between populations separated by geographical space but also populations separated by time.
Creative ability is independent of general intelligence, and it is unclear whether its level in the population has been drained via female education and opportunity. However, creative achievement (something significant enough to draw the attention of the larger society or of experts in a field) usually requires the interaction of creative ability with elevated intelligence. (Yes, there are psychological inventories for both creative ability, which is normally distributed like other biological traits, and creative achievement, which is not "normal" but, like other forms of exceptional human achievement, highly skewed toward one tail because it interacts strongly with environmental factors.)
Rapid population growth has more or less maintained the absolute but not relative size of the "smart fraction," and a very extensive education system has allowed us to funnel a growing share of the smart fraction into occupations where they are more likely to make useful innovations, but innovations per capita have been declining since the 1880s and the human race, and especially those parts of it which have been industrialized the longest, is considerably less adaptable than it was 200 years ago, and at a time when we need to be much more adaptable. However, this problem cannot be remedied except on a multi - generational time scale.
Good to see the Taliban are getting outside a bit.
At this rate Nate, you won't be getting invited to many parties. 😆
Really awesome interview, very sobering even if you kind of "think you know" what's in-store. I want to say best interview yet but I think that after everyone of your podcasts
Indeed
Working in the battery sector, I can relate 100% to what is being said here. Probably one of the best conversations from your channel.
Simon Michaux's paper relies on a number of false assumptions.
1. EUROPEAN WINTERS ARE NOT GLOBAL: His paper is all based on a 2014 studies about specifically European renewables getting through a cold dark winter. But most of the human race lives much closer to the equator where there is no winter. Michaux plucks this 4 weeks out of context and applies it to the world. Talk about overkill!
2. OVERBUILD SOLVES WINTER: The studies he's quoting are 10 years out of date, back when renewables were 10 TIMES more expensive! Overbuilding the grid was economically impossible. European studies thought they needed 4 weeks of storage to get through winter. But today renewables are so cheap we can Overbuild the grid. EG: If your wind and solar output halves during winter, then simply build DOUBLE your wind and solar! Spread the weather risk over huge geographic regions, majoring in wind up north and solar down in southern Europe. HVDC transmission is cheap enough, and only loses 1% per 1000km. EG: Spanish solar could easily shoot power all the way up to Finland. Michaux just ignores Overbuild. As he does all the points below!
3. When you DO need a few days storage, use OFF-RIVER pumped hydro which are much cheaper than metal batteries. A good pumped hydro site should be over 600 or 700 metres high - because if you triple the height between 2 reservoirs, you halve the cost. Pumped hydro is the cheapest way to store grid power for DAYS. But Michaux rejects pumped-hydro by claiming there are difficulties finding enough sites. Really? His 1000 page PDF doesn't reference a source - but he shares it here. czcams.com/video/LBw2OVWdWIQ/video.html
Get this. Michaux cherry-picked a PHES viability study about SINGAPORE! I laughed out loud when I heard him admit that. Their highest hill is only 15 metres. Gee - I wonder why they had trouble finding enough sites!? I call this dumb trick “Painting the world Singapore.” Professor Andrew Blakers from the ANU presents the REAL story. Most countries have 100 times the sites they need. If they don't, a neighbour does. czcams.com/video/_Lk3elu3zf4/video.html They have identified the 616,000 best sites around the world. re100.eng.anu.edu.au/global/
Off-river pumped hydro is cheaper than on-river, can be built faster, and you pump the water in later from a river dozens of kilometres away and cover it with solar panels to reduce evaporation. There are greenfield sites where both reservoirs are off-river, or Bluefield where you build one next to another already existing river - but not ON it. Australia has 1500 Bluefield sites - but the top 3 would provide DOUBLE what we need!
re100.eng.anu.edu.au/2022/11/11/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs/
4. SODIUM BATTERIES COULD DO HIS HYPOTHETICAL 4 WEEKS : Sodium is less fire prone, less toxic, and 30% cheaper than lithium, making it perfect for home or grid scale batteries. 1 ton of sodium battery could run a large family’s home for 5 days. The ocean stores a ridiculously huge 38.5 quadrillion tons, which is enough to hypothetically store THE WORLD'S ELECTRICITY GRID for 152,173 years! Or to flip it around, A WHOLE YEAR of the world's electricity would take just 0.0006% of the ocean’s salt! Michaux published in August 2021 and claimed Sodium batteries were still in the lab. But the first orders had been placed over a year before he published. When making extraordinary claims, one should take extraordinary care to get the facts right!
faradion.co.uk/faradion-receives-first-order-of-sodium-ion-batteries-for-australian-market/
5. ALL RENEWABLES CAN BE MADE FROM ABUNDANT MATERIALS: Sometimes renewables use rare earth’s for a specific performance boost - but this is usually a more expensive niche market. Michaux just cherry-picks these and ignores all the 'plainer' brands.
EG: 95% of Solar brands use silicon - which is 27% of the Earth’s crust. Wind is made from iron (5%), aluminium (8%) and fibreglass (renewable glass fibres and renewable polyester resins). Half of Tesla’s batteries are LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate). The USGS reserves from 2022 show we have TEN TIMES the lithium we need for a world of 1.4 billion LPF EV's. China’s BYD “Seagull” even has an EV that uses SODIUM batteries! I’ve collected evidence here. eclipsenow.wordpress.com/materials/
6. All the alt-right climate sceptics and alt-left Peak Oil Doomer renewables sceptics will be SHOCKED at how fast the Energy Transition kicks in. Wind and solar are now the cheapest power we've ever enjoyed, period. Even with extra HVDC transmission and batteries and PHES. Their growth is exponential. Solar is doubling every 4 years! Wind seems to be doubling about every decade. Australia will be 80-90% renewables by 2030. 10% of all cars sold are EV’s. Electric Semi's are now a thing, with Tesla with their dinky little 40 ton truck, and Janus Australia doing 100 ton Road-Trains with a 1 minute-battery swap! It’s starting, and will only accelerate. We have the potential to leave all fossil fuels way before they leave us. Michaux must know this to be forced to reach for such ridiculous strawman arguments to support his Doomsday fantasies.
So you'd know how sodium batteries undermine his whole argument in one swoop?
@@eclipsenow5431 I'd be curious to look at the size of a 500 km range sodium based battery
@@Frenchienumber2 They're working on them - but right now the main thing to understand is that IF we wanted to store Michaux's strawman of 4 weeks grid power in batteries, we could. But most good renewables plans don't need that - they just overbuild the solar and wind. The main thing is Michaux is just a peak oil doomer looking for reasons EV's and renewables cannot take over, when most sane people are looking for ways they CAN. And guess what? His whole paper is a joke of a strawman, with a fake demand for 4 weeks of power, a fake claim that sodium batteries don't work, a fake claim that the world doesn't have enough pumped-hydro, and a fake assertion that renewables and EV's even NEED rare earths, all topped off by the fake claim there isn't enough lithium for the world's cars. There's 89 million tons which is 89 BILLION kg. An LFP battery only needs 6kg lithium. You do the math on how many vehicles that is! Michaux' the kind of doomer that makes me ANGRY as I know of a young peak oiler that lost hope and hung himself. I've met with his father. It was heartbreaking. Michaux' the kind of self-promoting doomer I just can't stand.
@@eclipsenow5431 no one said we don’t have enough lithium, we just don’t have the time to extract it, nor the time to scale not-existing-yet next gen sodium batteries.
Yes we talk small promising research projects. The issue is time. To make room for innovation to scale in a global economy we need a peaceful environment and access to resources.
Right now competition to access those is increasing and in a unstable climate, I’m not convinced we will have time to scale those projects. Hence the need to degrow overall (if we ignore all other planetary boundaries suggesting it) prior to any growth in specific sector.
There is nothing to be sad about peak oil and limits to growth in our obese economies. Quite the opposite. More time, less attachement to things, good conversation like the one we are having (leading to hopefully a world where ressources are shared)!
Great episode. Everyone who still believes in endless growth needs to watch this
I absolutely love talking about raw materials and thier availability/logistics. Thank you! Your podcast is so informative!
Living in the resource rich Country of Canada I found this particular episode extremely interesting. Albeit, all your guests have delivered their own insightful perspective into societies future challenges. Looking forward to many more podcasts. Thanks Nate!
Simon Michaux's paper relies on a number of false assumptions.
1. EUROPEAN WINTERS ARE NOT GLOBAL: His paper is all based on a 2014 studies about specifically European renewables getting through a cold dark winter. But most of the human race lives much closer to the equator where there is no winter. Michaux plucks this 4 weeks out of context and applies it to the world. Talk about overkill!
2. OVERBUILD SOLVES WINTER: The studies he's quoting are 10 years out of date, back when renewables were 10 TIMES more expensive! Overbuilding the grid was economically impossible. European studies thought they needed 4 weeks of storage to get through winter. But today renewables are so cheap we can Overbuild the grid. EG: If your wind and solar output halves during winter, then simply build DOUBLE your wind and solar! Spread the weather risk over huge geographic regions, majoring in wind up north and solar down in southern Europe. HVDC transmission is cheap enough, and only loses 1% per 1000km. EG: Spanish solar could easily shoot power all the way up to Finland. Michaux just ignores Overbuild. As he does all the points below!
3. When you DO need a few days storage, use OFF-RIVER pumped hydro which are much cheaper than metal batteries. A good pumped hydro site should be over 600 or 700 metres high - because if you triple the height between 2 reservoirs, you halve the cost. Pumped hydro is the cheapest way to store grid power for DAYS. But Michaux rejects pumped-hydro by claiming there are difficulties finding enough sites. Really? His 1000 page PDF doesn't reference a source - but he shares it here. czcams.com/video/LBw2OVWdWIQ/video.html
Get this. Michaux cherry-picked a PHES viability study about SINGAPORE! I laughed out loud when I heard him admit that. Their highest hill is only 15 metres. Gee - I wonder why they had trouble finding enough sites!? I call this dumb trick “Painting the world Singapore.” Professor Andrew Blakers from the ANU presents the REAL story. Most countries have 100 times the sites they need. If they don't, a neighbour does. czcams.com/video/_Lk3elu3zf4/video.html They have identified the 616,000 best sites around the world. re100.eng.anu.edu.au/global/
Off-river pumped hydro is cheaper than on-river, can be built faster, and you pump the water in later from a river dozens of kilometres away and cover it with solar panels to reduce evaporation. There are greenfield sites where both reservoirs are off-river, or Bluefield where you build one next to another already existing river - but not ON it. Australia has 1500 Bluefield sites - but the top 3 would provide DOUBLE what we need!
re100.eng.anu.edu.au/2022/11/11/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs/
4. SODIUM BATTERIES COULD DO HIS HYPOTHETICAL 4 WEEKS : Sodium is less fire prone, less toxic, and 30% cheaper than lithium, making it perfect for home or grid scale batteries. 1 ton of sodium battery could run a large family’s home for 5 days. The ocean stores a ridiculously huge 38.5 quadrillion tons, which is enough to hypothetically store THE WORLD'S ELECTRICITY GRID for 152,173 years! Or to flip it around, A WHOLE YEAR of the world's electricity would take just 0.0006% of the ocean’s salt! Michaux published in August 2021 and claimed Sodium batteries were still in the lab. But the first orders had been placed over a year before he published. When making extraordinary claims, one should take extraordinary care to get the facts right!
faradion.co.uk/faradion-receives-first-order-of-sodium-ion-batteries-for-australian-market/
5. ALL RENEWABLES CAN BE MADE FROM ABUNDANT MATERIALS: Sometimes renewables use rare earth’s for a specific performance boost - but this is usually a more expensive niche market. Michaux just cherry-picks these and ignores all the 'plainer' brands.
EG: 95% of Solar brands use silicon - which is 27% of the Earth’s crust. Wind is made from iron (5%), aluminium (8%) and fibreglass (renewable glass fibres and renewable polyester resins). Half of Tesla’s batteries are LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate). The USGS reserves from 2022 show we have TEN TIMES the lithium we need for a world of 1.4 billion LPF EV's. China’s BYD “Seagull” even has an EV that uses SODIUM batteries! I’ve collected evidence here. eclipsenow.wordpress.com/materials/
6. All the alt-right climate sceptics and alt-left Peak Oil Doomer renewables sceptics will be SHOCKED at how fast the Energy Transition kicks in. Wind and solar are now the cheapest power we've ever enjoyed, period. Even with extra HVDC transmission and batteries and PHES. Their growth is exponential. Solar is doubling every 4 years! Wind seems to be doubling about every decade. Australia will be 80-90% renewables by 2030. 10% of all cars sold are EV’s. Electric Semi's are now a thing, with Tesla with their dinky little 40 ton truck, and Janus Australia doing 100 ton Road-Trains with a 1 minute-battery swap! It’s starting, and will only accelerate. We have the potential to leave all fossil fuels way before they leave us. Michaux must know this to be forced to reach for such ridiculous strawman arguments to support his Doomsday fantasies.
Great interview, but I am afraid optimism is unwarranted. Long losing battle to save mankind from itself is nearing it's finale. Mankind masses by nature has been short sighted greedy and shallow and that cannot change unfortunately. Humans do not need education to see consequences of their action. Consequence which masses have ignored for so long for their own convenience and creature comforts.
This was your best guest yet. Very enlightening. I'm thinking that many people in the paradigm two analogy most certainly spill over into the paradigm three group, especially by listening to shows such as this.
I'm .99 correlated with Dr. Michaux and I'd like you, Nate, to interview Geoff Lawton on permaculture. Can we reclaim and clean up asphalted surfaces like parking lots (heavy metals) with bioremediation? In passing, I'd like to mention I really enjoy your podcast. Keep it up! Thank you.
Yes! Geoff is amazing, I took his PDC- his breadth and depth of knowledge about the natural world is astounding
Greetings from Aotearoa NZ. Down here we know about Mordor, your conversations will help us avoid the "Mordor Economy", if enough of us listen and learn fast. That was so great Mate, thanks Nate thanks Simon and Cheers
Jesus we’re f*cked (pardon my French). Why can’t I pull myself away from staring into the abyss?? I know what’s coming.. I should be out there enjoying what time we have left.. or preparing myself as best as I can at the very least. But it’s like a gruesome car wreck - - I can’t help but be mesmerized by the horror, while I myself am speeding towards the brick wall *sigh*
Thanks anyways guys, excellent interview as usual
Keep looking at the problem to the point you are no longer terrified. Then you can start to get you arms around what kind response might be a start and how it all might go. Then you have the luxury of not panicking.
Go back to the last 4 or 5 minutes to understand the way out of our predicament. It's possible. I think that just "Out there enjoying what time we have left" isn't going to solve anything although finding joy in life is necessary in spite of the hardships we face. "It was always going to be this way." That's strangely comforting. Anyway, do your best and good luck!
@Simon P. Michaux Thank you Simon. I largely agree with your conclusions, I just think that the chances of humanity making it through this bottleneck without major die off caused by the 4 horsemen are exceedingly small. I wish the best for you and your loved ones 🙏🏻
@John Banach “”It was always going to be this way." That's strangely comforting” I agree.. I lean more and more towards determinism as I get older. Whatever will be must be
Thanks John, good luck to you too!
This podcast is brilliant - so many lightbulb moments for me listening to this. Thank you for your work Nate and Simon. Just wondering if you've thought of interviewing , discussing cultural branding concepts that will be required to reform cultural ideals of economic growth? I reckon a podcast session with Douglas Holt on cultural branding could expand thinking about how to create the new culture we need going forwards.
One of the truly baffling things to me is how you incredibly bright and perceptive individuals manage to function in the every-day world we live in, while simultaneously knowing the things that you know? It is driving ME crazy! How is it that homo sapiens can be so simultaneously brilliant and suicidally ignorant?
Simon Michaux's paper relies on a number of false assumptions.
1. EUROPEAN WINTERS ARE NOT GLOBAL: His paper is all based on a 2014 studies about specifically European renewables getting through a cold dark winter. But most of the human race lives much closer to the equator where there is no winter. Michaux plucks this 4 weeks out of context and applies it to the world. Talk about overkill!
2. OVERBUILD SOLVES WINTER: The studies he's quoting are 10 years out of date, back when renewables were 10 TIMES more expensive! Overbuilding the grid was economically impossible. European studies thought they needed 4 weeks of storage to get through winter. But today renewables are so cheap we can Overbuild the grid. EG: If your wind and solar output halves during winter, then simply build DOUBLE your wind and solar! Spread the weather risk over huge geographic regions, majoring in wind up north and solar down in southern Europe. HVDC transmission is cheap enough, and only loses 1% per 1000km. EG: Spanish solar could easily shoot power all the way up to Finland. Michaux just ignores Overbuild. As he does all the points below!
3. When you DO need a few days storage, use OFF-RIVER pumped hydro which are much cheaper than metal batteries. A good pumped hydro site should be over 600 or 700 metres high - because if you triple the height between 2 reservoirs, you halve the cost. Pumped hydro is the cheapest way to store grid power for DAYS. But Michaux rejects pumped-hydro by claiming there are difficulties finding enough sites. Really? His 1000 page PDF doesn't reference a source - but he shares it here. czcams.com/video/LBw2OVWdWIQ/video.html
Get this. Michaux cherry-picked a PHES viability study about SINGAPORE! I laughed out loud when I heard him admit that. Their highest hill is only 15 metres. Gee - I wonder why they had trouble finding enough sites!? I call this dumb trick “Painting the world Singapore.” Professor Andrew Blakers from the ANU presents the REAL story. Most countries have 100 times the sites they need. If they don't, a neighbour does. czcams.com/video/_Lk3elu3zf4/video.html They have identified the 616,000 best sites around the world. re100.eng.anu.edu.au/global/
Off-river pumped hydro is cheaper than on-river, can be built faster, and you pump the water in later from a river dozens of kilometres away and cover it with solar panels to reduce evaporation. There are greenfield sites where both reservoirs are off-river, or Bluefield where you build one next to another already existing river - but not ON it. Australia has 1500 Bluefield sites - but the top 3 would provide DOUBLE what we need!
re100.eng.anu.edu.au/2022/11/11/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs/
4. SODIUM BATTERIES COULD DO HIS HYPOTHETICAL 4 WEEKS : Sodium is less fire prone, less toxic, and 30% cheaper than lithium, making it perfect for home or grid scale batteries. 1 ton of sodium battery could run a large family’s home for 5 days. The ocean stores a ridiculously huge 38.5 quadrillion tons, which is enough to hypothetically store THE WORLD'S ELECTRICITY GRID for 152,173 years! Or to flip it around, A WHOLE YEAR of the world's electricity would take just 0.0006% of the ocean’s salt! Michaux published in August 2021 and claimed Sodium batteries were still in the lab. But the first orders had been placed over a year before he published. When making extraordinary claims, one should take extraordinary care to get the facts right!
faradion.co.uk/faradion-receives-first-order-of-sodium-ion-batteries-for-australian-market/
5. ALL RENEWABLES CAN BE MADE FROM ABUNDANT MATERIALS: Sometimes renewables use rare earth’s for a specific performance boost - but this is usually a more expensive niche market. Michaux just cherry-picks these and ignores all the 'plainer' brands.
EG: 95% of Solar brands use silicon - which is 27% of the Earth’s crust. Wind is made from iron (5%), aluminium (8%) and fibreglass (renewable glass fibres and renewable polyester resins). Half of Tesla’s batteries are LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate). The USGS reserves from 2022 show we have TEN TIMES the lithium we need for a world of 1.4 billion LPF EV's. China’s BYD “Seagull” even has an EV that uses SODIUM batteries! I’ve collected evidence here. eclipsenow.wordpress.com/materials/
6. All the alt-right climate sceptics and alt-left Peak Oil Doomer renewables sceptics will be SHOCKED at how fast the Energy Transition kicks in. Wind and solar are now the cheapest power we've ever enjoyed, period. Even with extra HVDC transmission and batteries and PHES. Their growth is exponential. Solar is doubling every 4 years! Wind seems to be doubling about every decade. Australia will be 80-90% renewables by 2030. 10% of all cars sold are EV’s. Electric Semi's are now a thing, with Tesla with their dinky little 40 ton truck, and Janus Australia doing 100 ton Road-Trains with a 1 minute-battery swap! It’s starting, and will only accelerate. We have the potential to leave all fossil fuels way before they leave us. Michaux must know this to be forced to reach for such ridiculous strawman arguments to support his Doomsday fantasies.
Wow that was awesome, thanks guys!
Great guest Nate, thanks
Fantastic episode. Difficult but useful.
Considering the extant income disparities (and the indifference it implies) in the US alone, my heart bleeds for the future of those of "limited means"around the globe. Nate Hagens uses the euphemism of the Great "Simplification" but the term "culling" would be the term that nonpolitical realists would use.
Thank you so much for this thoughtful conversation, looking forward to the next one.
Yet again I have learned so much
I really liked this talk..more based on facts and not vague ideas in hard to understand language like a lot of other talks
Another great show, Nate. Thanks, Simon.
Another Great conversation. I think Nate had a good point though: about only a small percentage of the oil being used for food production. I looked it up: turns out only 4% of the cost of food is from transportation and another 4% from energy (excluding oil). Which means, even if a barrel of oil quadrupled in price, it wouldn't impact the cost of food very much. Which means, we're going to run out Car gas long before we run out of food. As much as I love gardening and my countless fruit trees, I think it's premature to stay that everyone is going to start growing their own food even though I think that makes a lot of sense to me. My HOA would give me hell if I planted a fruit tree in the front yard, just as an example.
These conversations are great from a basic concept point of view. But, I'd like to see some actual numbers. Some actual breakdowns of consumer cost projections when a barrel of oil cost starts really going up. Which things will get hit first, then second, then third.
Soon we’ll be brewing up most of our food in factories. It’s called “Precision Fermentation” and it just needs electricity, water, and a tiny sprinkling of mineral fertilisers. It lets us grow all the fats and proteins we need. Food technicians can form and flavour it into fish-sticks, chicken tenders and bacon strips. The best bit? It could feed 10 billion people from a tiny area the size of greater London! Historically we’ve chopped down 2 billion hectares to graze livestock for very inefficient proteins and fats. That's enough space for 3 TRILLION trees. Let's regrow that. It would soak up ALL historical CO2 emissions. It would feed the world abundant cheap food that's proof against flood and drought and pandemics. It would save nature, giving forest homes to countless animals. And it would solve climate change. Win win win. "Brave Robot" are already selling PF ice-cream and cream cheese, and others are making palm oil and yoghurt and soon there will be lots of PF milk. Please watch George Monbiot explain more here - just 6 minutes. It's the best technology since renewable energy: czcams.com/video/6eaTIe_TBZA/video.html
Very informative! Thanks!
Excellent episode, with a great guest. Kudos!
re. tonnes of neodymium magnets in wind turbines.
Not all wind turbines contain any fixed magnet at all. Some are grid-excited and many are inverter-excited.
Pessimistically a wind turbine might reach end of operating life after 20 years, but most of the materials in it do not. The blades are notorious for being difficult to repurpose or recycle, but all copper wiring, permanent magnets, soft iron cores, structural steel and so on represent a very high-value resource which is ripe for recycling.
@Jonathan Maddox - thanks. True -but I think Simon's main point (and there is upcoming data/research to support it) is that to recycle at the scale required, the ORIGINALY metals/materials need to exist (in order to be recycled). They do not -and the first phase of a truly global scaling of RE will take much more than exist in current reserves. This is a resource based analysis angle in contrast to most economic analysis that just extrapolate todays price forward in time at 100x the scale. We will post the paper(s) in these notes when finished -and I'll probably have Simon back on again to explain this further (as I suspect it is widely unrecognized - I just understood it recently)
@@thegreatsimplification But this 'main point' of Simon is just RUBBISH! Overbuild, PHES, Sodium batteries and the fact that most of humanity lives within 30 degrees of the equator all make his '4 weeks' battery requirements disappear. It's based on 10 year out of date European studies that he then wants to apply to the WHOLE WORLD - 10 years ago renewables were about 10 TIMES more expensive. Overbuild wasn't a thing back then. Now it's just standard! ONCE you bother to go into his 1000 page PDF and subtract the metals required to build 4 weeks batteries - as I have - Michaux's OWN PAPER shows there are enough materials! The whole 4 week storage thing is unutterable rubbish worthy of something a Tea-Party voter would repeat. If your renewable output halves during winter then BUILD MORE RENEWABLES! Also, EVERY renewable energy source can be built from abundant renewable materials and it looks like wind is going to be rare-earth free very soon.
WIND TURBINES: are made from iron, aluminium, and fibreglass. Iron is used in the steel and is also magnetised for the generator. Iron is 5% of the earth's crust. How much is that? Digging down a km it’s 200 BILLION tons per person for the 10 billion people we expect by 2050! The wind turbine blades are made from fibreglass which are made from entirely renewable polyester resin and glass fibres. Wind generators WITHOUT rare-earth magnets are now a thing:-
www.offshorewind.biz/2022/07/28/15-mw-rare-earth-free-offshore-wind-turbine-seeks-path-to-market/
www.greenbiz.com/article/myth-and-reality-alternatives-rare-minerals-ev-batteries
www.nironmagnetics.com/
This next one sounds AMAZING and could be the future of wind power because it ELIMINATES servicing 4 times a year to basically ZERO over 30 years! Meet the Twistac rotary electrical contact. newsreleases.sandia.gov/turbine_innovation/
Super Interview! Thank you both. ❤❤
This is an excellent interview.
Damn you Nate. I was about to go to bed
Now im taking notes. As a student of metallurgy. I just kissed my ass goodbye. Well done. Life as we know it is over. Does not mean it's over... just as we know it.
yes - we need to reform our relationship with the biosphere, value creation and resource 'use'. we also need to increase awareness of the driving forces that underlie our desires to transcend death through cultural devices - e.g. wealth, the power of the state, and attacking others that have alternative 'religious beliefs' - check out Ernest Becker, The Denial of Death
Electronic long johns are our only hope. Cheap and scalable.
Excellent!!!
Wow, that was one hell of a dopamine fix! This had to be one of the darkest yet informative, honest yet amusing dialogues I’ve heard on energy/materials blindness and the challenges for us 8 billion planet nibblers. Scaling from 19 Tera watts to 5-10 Tera watts sounds inevitable. That implies we shouldn’t throw the baby out with the bath water when it comes to Tommy Malthus, amirite? lol
Love the Mordor economy metaphoric view as a likely future. It must trigger fear and concerns in minds of people who have hard time to picture such kind of horrendous economic system, likely in the futur due to blind decision makers...
Thank you
45:28 "Before we get to the Mordor economy... or even close, other forms of complexity will come in and destroy our path and force us to go down a diff path and it wont necessarily be very polite but our plans to maintain the existing system, our demand into the equation,, the oxygen will simply be turned off....'"
The challenges we leave the future generations are formidable. They'll need grit and determination to match the most accomplished and sinewy cultures and eras in human history. Yet other guests featured on this channel talk of "5 hour work weeks", participation trophy orthodoxy, and some exhibit metastasized, metabolized, terminal "energy/(materials) blindness".
Green is neither found in a melon nor the color of fiat. True green is a new paradigm that "won't be very polite" but that's life.
Your best yet. Thank you.
Excellent💯👍👏 work! Thank❤🌹🙏 you, Simon Michaux and Nate! Every reasonable human being understands - no infinite growth on a finite planet... 😢😢😢
13:00 Dr. SM: "The 4th industrial revolution will happen for very rich people in a functional way, and everyone else, because it's not going to arrive in time and work, you're going to have this dysfunctional system that doesn't work and everyone has to make do with what they have so you'll end up with a society like Elysium, but not in a good way."
NH: "So the subtitle of the 4th industrial revolution is Gigafamine."
it's kind of sad for the people who do it, but the urban mining here in Barcelona is just thriving. also, just figure out a way to power your washer etc with a bicycle, but the bigger question might be: where are you going to get the water for washing, let alone food growing? another thought is: why did the egyptians worship cats? could it be they understood about the ammonia as well as the rodents? if cats have their drothers, they live outside, and go toilet in the ash heap. maybe this is the stuff? i think the most important thing to do right now would be to convert the toilets into composting asap. is there a reason in the universe we should be fouling our water with sewage?
The evolution of humanity is a story of adaptive ingenuity to the challenges of the time. We are challenged beyond our currently visible capacities, but that only means that we are invited to rise to the next level of our abilities.
See also: the Toba Catastrophe.
Spoken by someone who doesn't know how evolution works. When you say "ingenuity" you really mean "technological progress". You seem to actually believe that the laws of physics don't apply to human beings. What you have is a religion.
Ingenuity is the very thing that's causing all of these problems in the first place.
Whoa... there was a lot of energy- and mineral-specific info that should become wide knowledge ASAP! Gonna admit, I feel kind of ... overwhelmed by the 10 Terrawatt or even the 5 Terrawatt prognosis. Not much to lift ones spirit there. :-/ But anyways, THANK YOU for your work and vividly promoting discussion about these topics, Nate! For what it's worth, I stepped off the 'Buy this new shit!' - train a long time ago. Consumerism sucks.
Simon Michaux's paper relies on a number of false assumptions.
1. EUROPEAN WINTERS ARE NOT GLOBAL: His paper is all based on a 2014 studies about specifically European renewables getting through a cold dark winter. But most of the human race lives much closer to the equator where there is no winter. Michaux plucks this 4 weeks out of context and applies it to the world. Talk about overkill!
2. OVERBUILD SOLVES WINTER: The studies he's quoting are 10 years out of date, back when renewables were 10 TIMES more expensive! Overbuilding the grid was economically impossible. European studies thought they needed 4 weeks of storage to get through winter. But today renewables are so cheap we can Overbuild the grid. EG: If your wind and solar output halves during winter, then simply build DOUBLE your wind and solar! Spread the weather risk over huge geographic regions, majoring in wind up north and solar down in southern Europe. HVDC transmission is cheap enough, and only loses 1% per 1000km. EG: Spanish solar could easily shoot power all the way up to Finland. Michaux just ignores Overbuild. As he does all the points below!
3. When you DO need a few days storage, use OFF-RIVER pumped hydro which are much cheaper than metal batteries. A good pumped hydro site should be over 600 or 700 metres high - because if you triple the height between 2 reservoirs, you halve the cost. Pumped hydro is the cheapest way to store grid power for DAYS. But Michaux rejects pumped-hydro by claiming there are difficulties finding enough sites. Really? His 1000 page PDF doesn't reference a source - but he shares it here. czcams.com/video/LBw2OVWdWIQ/video.html
Get this. Michaux cherry-picked a PHES viability study about SINGAPORE! I laughed out loud when I heard him admit that. Their highest hill is only 15 metres. Gee - I wonder why they had trouble finding enough sites!? I call this dumb trick “Painting the world Singapore.” Professor Andrew Blakers from the ANU presents the REAL story. Most countries have 100 times the sites they need. If they don't, a neighbour does. czcams.com/video/_Lk3elu3zf4/video.html They have identified the 616,000 best sites around the world. re100.eng.anu.edu.au/global/
Off-river pumped hydro is cheaper than on-river, can be built faster, and you pump the water in later from a river dozens of kilometres away and cover it with solar panels to reduce evaporation. There are greenfield sites where both reservoirs are off-river, or Bluefield where you build one next to another already existing river - but not ON it. Australia has 1500 Bluefield sites - but the top 3 would provide DOUBLE what we need!
re100.eng.anu.edu.au/2022/11/11/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs/
4. SODIUM BATTERIES COULD DO HIS HYPOTHETICAL 4 WEEKS : Sodium is less fire prone, less toxic, and 30% cheaper than lithium, making it perfect for home or grid scale batteries. 1 ton of sodium battery could run a large family’s home for 5 days. The ocean stores a ridiculously huge 38.5 quadrillion tons, which is enough to hypothetically store THE WORLD'S ELECTRICITY GRID for 152,173 years! Or to flip it around, A WHOLE YEAR of the world's electricity would take just 0.0006% of the ocean’s salt! Michaux published in August 2021 and claimed Sodium batteries were still in the lab. But the first orders had been placed over a year before he published. When making extraordinary claims, one should take extraordinary care to get the facts right!
faradion.co.uk/faradion-receives-first-order-of-sodium-ion-batteries-for-australian-market/
5. ALL RENEWABLES CAN BE MADE FROM ABUNDANT MATERIALS: Sometimes renewables use rare earth’s for a specific performance boost - but this is usually a more expensive niche market. Michaux just cherry-picks these and ignores all the 'plainer' brands.
EG: 95% of Solar brands use silicon - which is 27% of the Earth’s crust. Wind is made from iron (5%), aluminium (8%) and fibreglass (renewable glass fibres and renewable polyester resins). Half of Tesla’s batteries are LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate). The USGS reserves from 2022 show we have TEN TIMES the lithium we need for a world of 1.4 billion LPF EV's. China’s BYD “Seagull” even has an EV that uses SODIUM batteries! I’ve collected evidence here. eclipsenow.wordpress.com/materials/
6. All the alt-right climate sceptics and alt-left Peak Oil Doomer renewables sceptics will be SHOCKED at how fast the Energy Transition kicks in. Wind and solar are now the cheapest power we've ever enjoyed, period. Even with extra HVDC transmission and batteries and PHES. Their growth is exponential. Solar is doubling every 4 years! Wind seems to be doubling about every decade. Australia will be 80-90% renewables by 2030. 10% of all cars sold are EV’s. Electric Semi's are now a thing, with Tesla with their dinky little 40 ton truck, and Janus Australia doing 100 ton Road-Trains with a 1 minute-battery swap! It’s starting, and will only accelerate. We have the potential to leave all fossil fuels way before they leave us. Michaux must know this to be forced to reach for such ridiculous strawman arguments to support his Doomsday fantasies.
34:07 as you said this, I thought about my wife’s ancestors - she’s Japanese - and I imagined them in 1700s, 1800’s, etc… pre-oil, living off the land and fishing. I though about how perhaps it’s best to return to those times, and live more humbly with nature - as I thought about that, I just imagined her 1800’s ancestors teleported into the future, fishing in a dirty sea, struggling to find fish due to our current overfishing, catching deformed fish with micro plastics in their stomachs etc… we’ve polluted and destroyed the planet while indulging in the abundance of fossil fuels, that it would now be even more miserable and detrimental to return to our way of life pre-oil, pre heavy industry. We really are ‘f*cked’.
Nuclear isn't really "flat", it can be put up and down to a certain extend, plus you can use the surplus energy to pump water up (the only real "utility scale" form of battery existing, what the Swiss (and french) do a lot with French nuclear power)
Well the older plants were designed to run at 100% but nowadays the ability to ramp up and down (rather quickly) is a required technical feature.
The steam turbine works at maximum efficiency at full power though, so ideally that is how one would like to operate the plant.
Some remarks:
Nuclear
- pile of spent fuel: Metallurgy: Means you understand the impact mining generates. I fail to see how nuclear is worse in this aspect (impact = volume * time) compared to the extraction of other metals on a geological scale. Even mount Isa is small compared to the whole.
- long term cooling is not required
Recycling
- a good number of precious metal are already being recycled from mobile phones. Plasma melting does allow for some thermodynamical shortcuts.
- recycling central real problem is you only get a
Interesting discussion. Demographics is going to play a role as we are having less children. Collapse is coming no doubting it.
At the very bottom of all of humanity's problems is the learned belief that the Earth has been "provided" for US, we homo sapiens; that the Earth is an inexhaustible "mine" of life-sustaining goodness benevolently provided by a "magic man" in the sky. HOLLLLLYYYY SHIT!
You too mate ...nate!!!
"our food production is the biggest task first in the Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Where at the moment its industrial agriculture and it happens in a 6 continent global supply chain. That will have to phase back into small scale organic, where most people are going to have to become involved in growing their own food again. Of course, they can't just do that"
I felt the same way, that a sustainable, resilient, healthy food system is one that's grown by the family at the point of consumption. But I didn't think "they just can't do that", I felt that we could leverage smart tech at small scale in order to create a food system that meets or exceeds the current convenience, cost, and perceived value of the existing globalized food system.
This led me to invent a smart farming appliance, the world's first that can grow a full diet of vegetable produce (including root veg, brassicas, alliums, pods and stems, etc), on a successive schedule that meets the weekly needs of a family throughout the year. A fridge-sized, 68 crop spot, aeroponic, automated appliance that provides industry-level food production with the convenience of a dishwasher. Any food produced via this method will not use land and will avoid affecting biodiversity. No chemicals will run off into our water and air ways. No machine or factory processing. No preservation. No transportation. No nutrient degradation. No food waste. This food will never be wrapped in plastic.
In terms of energy, Nate, think of all the systems and processes that have been circumnavigated. 10' from farm to plate. All the miles and emissions avoided, all the water saved, all the natural carbon sinks unaltered or restored.
Then imagine if all or most homes are producing vegetable food, and that they can connect with each other. What's grown will be decided by families, not the market. It would be a re-diversification of food, a system stewarded by families and communities, sourced from within, thus creating self-sovereignty and resilience and removing the risk of supply chains and geopolitical instability. Everyday, you would watch your food grow from seed to harvest, fully connected with a source of fresh produce, exchanging O2 and CO2 with each other. And if fresh food became standard and ubiquitous, I believe a gentle shift in diet would occur causing less demand for meat causing an even greater positive impact regarding climate change.
Thoughts on this direction? And about applying the principles of production at the point of consumption through distributed technological innovation for all of our basic needs? Amazing work Nate!! Simon Michaux great to meet you! Your voice is so needed right now, your report on the materials needed for one generation of renewables was the most sobering info I've heard in a while...!
How much electricity does your invention use per month? If 100 million people owned one, how many gigawatts of power would all of those devices consume.
Also, how much chemical fertilizer does your device use? The Haber-Bosh process for producing fertilizer at scale requires large amount of natural gas.
I can see all the fat, old and sickly people waddling around my local supermarket and the TikTok influencers in my neighborbood all learning to farm organically with little or no energy supply, no fertilizers or pesticides. Sure.
You'll see how civilized and "organic" people are after missing about 3 days of food. They'll form spontaneous communism! (s/ I'm afraid.)
My impression is that we are still in the Beverly hillbillies phase of nuclear energy resources.
Mordor economy!
Es crucial esta "revelacion" en plena Transición Energetica donde los commoditties (minerales y fuentes y fuentes de energía) que la industria del automóvil, tecnología y energía requieren difieren a los de la epoca precolonial o pre contemporánea. Como históricos suministradores de commoditties desde la Era de la Plata, Estaño, o Gas es necesario reorientar el horizonte de aprovechamientos con nuevas facultades tecnológicos y paradigmas.
8:04 Mineral, or non-fuel metal, finiteness does not present a problem the way energy finiteness would. *_Non-fuel metals are not burned._* Every gram of non-fuel metal extracted makes society permanently richer.
Dry storage of spent nuclar fuel does not need energy.
And cooling pools require almost none (just a continuous trickle of new water to keep them topped off).
"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage."
--John Kenneth Galbraith, from "The Age of Uncertainty" (1977)
The conclusions presented in this program seem basically equivalent to those in the video "Mark Mills: The energy transition delusion: inescapable mineral realities," even though I don't think Michaux and Mills are aware of one another's work.
52:24 I would be interested in hearing you talk with Peter Zeihan on this topic with Simon.
53:30 "[Europe] does not have the capacity to receive that [natural Gas imported from the USA or elsewhere], and it would take years to build that capacity..." It's interesting that Germany managed to build the necessary LNG-capable ports in less than 6 months. "The prospect of being hanged in the morning concentrates the mind remarkably".... I don't think I have the quote quite accurately, but it gets the idea across. People and countries CAN (sometimes) act faster if they are up against a real and serious deadline.
Nate, can you do an episode with Ye Tao of MEER?
I was kinda surprised there was no discussion of fast breeder reactors. Also mining asteroids ir thAe moon or beaming power from space. Once you start talking about resource depletion in 50 and 100 year timescales then these kinds of solutions might be fully automated.
I've heard Nate mention his essay "Renewables: Right Answer to the Wrong Question" in several places but can't find it anywehre. Does anyone know where I can get access to it?
Thorium could last much longer and new designs would need fewer operators and no actively powered cooling after shutdown. In other words, the systems are simpler.
Once again… waste fuel is only waste if you decide to waste it.
We should at least build enough to power the lives of 500 million people. Who will choose the chosen?
*The 7 percent solution to overshoot.*
54:43 hold hard here! Nuclear is not flat. Nuclear WAS flat because it didn't need to be variable. And yes, technically it is better to be flat. But new nuclear power stations are built flexible, and a portion of old ones are flexible as well. Any nuclear power station can be retrofitted. Just for information, doesn't affect the argument in general. Cheers!
As a descendant of Bucky Fuller, I've been working these problems for some time. 100% agree. The primary engineering problem I have run into so far is adequate, replaceable forms for household heating that would be scalable. Working on it with a few designs. But that's a tricky one depending on the geography/geology of the region.
Would earthship like construction on all new home be beneficial?
Electric long johns.
@@Silverhellbender Yes. Note how effective "igloos" are for the Inuit. But that'd mean either retrofitting ALL homes, or having people move into new ones. Material constraints here. Not energy though (can be constructed by hand w about 5 people).
Hey Nate, loving the show. I was wondering if at some point you can comment on my country, Canada. %80 of the world's mining companies are HQ'd here, resource extraction being essential to our nationhood before it was called Canada. What does the future hold for such a country?
(Monetary) wealth and guilt. Plus many other possibilities. As a nation you have more options than most. On balance your residents are also more reasonable. Beyond that I can merely speculate
@@thegreatsimplification Meaning, the profits will continue to grow for the mining firms, in spite of the future scarcity? or because of the scarcity?
It occurs to me that "Wealth and Guilt" would be a pretty good title for a history of Canada.
@@marcusweber7436 -- I'm also a Canadian and I live in oil-rich Alberta. Economies based on resource extraction are more or less inflation-proof in a globalized economy. Market prices are based on the highest price *the entire world* is willing to pay at any one time.
Which means a recession or even an economic collapse in some other part of the world is barely even noticed by the Canadian market. Our companies will just find new customers to cut deals with.
Since experienced oilfield workers are almost always in high demand, they also tend to start in the industry young and recieve enough wages to afford a good middle-class lifestyle their entire working lives. This also tends to *deeply* affect their perspective about energy and resources because all they've seen in a few *companies* go bust and they've worked all over the world or kbow people who have.
@@marcusweber7436 Be grateful you have a country capable of guilt. Shame anyway.
Hey Nate love your work and have learned a lot from your podcast, but can I give you some advice?
Apply equalization and compression to your audio levels, your mic levels are really hot and when you pronounce certain syllables, like “s” and “ch”, it is sharp and hard on my ears. Maybe look at your decibel meters and the way you speak into the mic, it would help make it easier to listen to. Please consider, other than that great content and I will continue to look forward to your podcasts.
Thanks. Will try
In other words the estimate can't possibly be accurate because people like my boomer dad aren't going to he driving 1hr 15 minutes with no traffic to work at Pittsburgh airport of oil goes through the rooftops. Demand for cars would drastically decrease
Everyone listening is likely an N (Myers Briggs intuitive/abstractor) but decisions in our democratic civilisations will be determined by the present conditions (S sensing people who are the majority).
Therefore we will hit brick walls instead of planning in an enlightened way for energy/resource descent. So for those with foresight, earn as much money as possible and invest it into enduring skills and resources that will support the people around you as things squeeze more and more over time.
1. What's your opinion on the Soviet Union? Many Russians understand they are living in a post-apocalyptic society where greed triumphed over man's ascent into space. 2. Have you ever thought of Juche Korea that has managed to live through terrible famine while preserving both its centralised state and its science? 3. And, most controversially, wouldn't it have been better if the Germans had won, uniting the entire planet?
- Adûnâi
USSR proved that central planning either cannot work well, or is very, very hard to be made to work well.
The North Korean state survived two famines because it is highly repressive. The closer you get to the capital, the most control it can assert. It is a model for "how not to run a country."
The Germans never aspired to control the entire planet, just to build an empire in Europe. The rest is US or UK war propaganda. (Yeah, I know about those OSS documents, but they are still OSS documents, or at best contingency plans, and not realistic ones.)
1. Soviet Union is dead. 2. Yes, I’ve wondered how many North Koreans were cannibalized to maintain the state during famine. 3. No, not a fan of genocide. Or cannibalism.
@@christinearmington The Soviet Union was like the most advanced society, actually flew man to space, and died to cultural causes. North Korea has peace and space rockets, whereas my native Ukraine is a post-apocalyptic ruin. - Adûnâi
45:44 I hope he follows up on what he means by “the oxygen will simply be turned off” regarding keeping our existing system running.
The system will "choke" and slowly suffocate, like an organism that can't receive enough oxygen. And then the system will die. And because we have extracted all the easy-to-get minerals and fossil fuels, industrial society will never happen again. All the fossil fuels that can be gotten with muscle power are long gone; all that's left relies on a 6 continent supply and resource chain to be extracted. When the system turns off, we go back to pre-Industrial Revolution life, but with a planet with enormous overpopulation and very very limited natural resources and natural capacity to sustain life, and basically all humans trained and experienced in useless lifestyles (influencers, coders, nobody capable of feeding themselves, most people fat, sick and frail - almosy everyone is kept alive by fossil fuels and mineral resources). What do you think will happen then? Denial, anger, negotiation (with the laws of physics): war and mass death. We're heading for the walking dead.
Simon Michaux's paper relies on a number of false assumptions.
1. EUROPEAN WINTERS ARE NOT GLOBAL: His paper is all based on a 2014 studies about specifically European renewables getting through a cold dark winter. But most of the human race lives much closer to the equator where there is no winter. Michaux plucks this 4 weeks out of context and applies it to the world. Talk about overkill!
2. OVERBUILD SOLVES WINTER: The studies he's quoting are 10 years out of date, back when renewables were 10 TIMES more expensive! Overbuilding the grid was economically impossible. European studies thought they needed 4 weeks of storage to get through winter. But today renewables are so cheap we can Overbuild the grid. EG: If your wind and solar output halves during winter, then simply build DOUBLE your wind and solar! Spread the weather risk over huge geographic regions, majoring in wind up north and solar down in southern Europe. HVDC transmission is cheap enough, and only loses 1% per 1000km. EG: Spanish solar could easily shoot power all the way up to Finland. Michaux just ignores Overbuild. As he does all the points below!
3. When you DO need a few days storage, use OFF-RIVER pumped hydro which are much cheaper than metal batteries. A good pumped hydro site should be over 600 or 700 metres high - because if you triple the height between 2 reservoirs, you halve the cost. Pumped hydro is the cheapest way to store grid power for DAYS. But Michaux rejects pumped-hydro by claiming there are difficulties finding enough sites. Really? His 1000 page PDF doesn't reference a source - but he shares it here. czcams.com/video/LBw2OVWdWIQ/video.html
Get this. Michaux cherry-picked a PHES viability study about SINGAPORE! I laughed out loud when I heard him admit that. Their highest hill is only 15 metres. Gee - I wonder why they had trouble finding enough sites!? I call this dumb trick “Painting the world Singapore.” Professor Andrew Blakers from the ANU presents the REAL story. Most countries have 100 times the sites they need. If they don't, a neighbour does. czcams.com/video/_Lk3elu3zf4/video.html They have identified the 616,000 best sites around the world. re100.eng.anu.edu.au/global/
Off-river pumped hydro is cheaper than on-river, can be built faster, and you pump the water in later from a river dozens of kilometres away and cover it with solar panels to reduce evaporation. There are greenfield sites where both reservoirs are off-river, or Bluefield where you build one next to another already existing river - but not ON it. Australia has 1500 Bluefield sites - but the top 3 would provide DOUBLE what we need!
re100.eng.anu.edu.au/2022/11/11/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs/
4. SODIUM BATTERIES COULD DO HIS HYPOTHETICAL 4 WEEKS : Sodium is less fire prone, less toxic, and 30% cheaper than lithium, making it perfect for home or grid scale batteries. 1 ton of sodium battery could run a large family’s home for 5 days. The ocean stores a ridiculously huge 38.5 quadrillion tons, which is enough to hypothetically store THE WORLD'S ELECTRICITY GRID for 152,173 years! Or to flip it around, A WHOLE YEAR of the world's electricity would take just 0.0006% of the ocean’s salt! Michaux published in August 2021 and claimed Sodium batteries were still in the lab. But the first orders had been placed over a year before he published. When making extraordinary claims, one should take extraordinary care to get the facts right!
faradion.co.uk/faradion-receives-first-order-of-sodium-ion-batteries-for-australian-market/
5. ALL RENEWABLES CAN BE MADE FROM ABUNDANT MATERIALS: Sometimes renewables use rare earth’s for a specific performance boost - but this is usually a more expensive niche market. Michaux just cherry-picks these and ignores all the 'plainer' brands.
EG: 95% of Solar brands use silicon - which is 27% of the Earth’s crust. Wind is made from iron (5%), aluminium (8%) and fibreglass (renewable glass fibres and renewable polyester resins). Half of Tesla’s batteries are LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate). The USGS reserves from 2022 show we have TEN TIMES the lithium we need for a world of 1.4 billion LPF EV's. China’s BYD “Seagull” even has an EV that uses SODIUM batteries! I’ve collected evidence here. eclipsenow.wordpress.com/materials/
6. All the alt-right climate sceptics and alt-left Peak Oil Doomer renewables sceptics will be SHOCKED at how fast the Energy Transition kicks in. Wind and solar are now the cheapest power we've ever enjoyed, period. Even with extra HVDC transmission and batteries and PHES. Their growth is exponential. Solar is doubling every 4 years! Wind seems to be doubling about every decade. Australia will be 80-90% renewables by 2030. 10% of all cars sold are EV’s. Electric Semi's are now a thing, with Tesla with their dinky little 40 ton truck, and Janus Australia doing 100 ton Road-Trains with a 1 minute-battery swap! It’s starting, and will only accelerate. We have the potential to leave all fossil fuels way before they leave us. Michaux must know this to be forced to reach for such ridiculous strawman arguments to support his Doomsday fantasies.
The truth be told, it won't be long before those living in the bottom 1/2 of the "socio-economic spectrum" are living in a world of shit! THAT de-stabilized half of the planet shouldn't be expected to die quietly. Lordy, lordy, there ARE advantages to being an old man!
You think it will finish around 2030? 🔧
Way off on Thorium iirc. Waste is way less radioactive and actually usable. Also thorium does not need active cooling AND it's very abundant.
Or am I wrong?
Thorium is about 3 to 4 times more abundant than Uranium. I was not able to find the right numbers to do a thorium reactor simulation. I do like Th as a fuel. The question being asked, was could the Nuclear Power Plant fleet (NPP) be expanded fast enough to be useful to replace fossil fuels. The answer was no. It was taking too long. Thorium reactors were not able to produce as much power as a U Gen III+ reactor. So if U can't do it in time, Th won't either. That eboing said, both Th and U have their place. We will not be able to service some industries without nuclear.
19:36 19:37 19:38 19:39 No. Global society runs on *_20 TW._*
There’s no way out
Sound? And my first ever first post!
Welcome! (Try turning off mute - sound is working on YT)
@@thegreatsimplification Thanks, I had sound on other videos and came back after getting sound on another. It's definitely working now though. Maybe the sound track can lag a bit when it first gets posted?
Sometimes when you are really early to watch a longer video on yt the sound doesn't work for the first few minutes.
@@TennesseeJed ah ! thanks for the intel - i got that issue a couple of times , didn't know what to do . just coming back to the vid next day should do the trick , then ?
@@jonas7510 just a few minutes
Asteroid mining strikes me as inevitable... When the technology of space travel becomes advanced enough, and the need for minerals becomes great enough, it will become profitable.
Lunar and Asteroid mining strike me as inevitable as well - but one has to consider that the resource scarcity problems in space are FAR FAR worse that they EVER will be on earth. On earth we have the unbelievable luxury of merely having to transport nearly all of our air and water, for example. In space, we have to scratch our entire supply straight out of the ground.
I strongly suggest you learn about what the living conditions were like for the Apollo astronauts.
@@Grizabeebles, in the beginning the resource scarcity problems in space will be far far worse than on Earth. I mean, food, water, oxygen, sanitation, hygiene, heat and energy, radiation shielding, fuel constraints, lack of gravity... all provide challenges with regards to just staying alive and being able to function. In time, however, all that will change. It will be a learning process, like anything else our civilization has ever done.
@@Darhan62 -- Exactly! No matter how bad things get on earth, living here poses *far* fewer constraints and allows backward scaling to less energy-intensive levels of technological development while still supporting human life. Not so for space.
There's simply no incentive under any system other than a command economy for someone to go fetch space platinum until we are *extremely* close to completely running out of earthly sources.
And, unfortunately, command economies are set up to benefit those at the top. All the social and economic problems of a hereditary ruling class apply.
@Aristocrat of the Soul, I think decades is more realistic, but perhaps it could be as much as one century? Hard to predict at this point.
@Aristocrat of the Soul -- what sort of timeline do you expect the transition to take?
If any message breaks clearly thru this podcast ~ that message is nuclear IS NOT the answer ~ never has been ~ never will be.
Time is well overdue to look elsewhere for our energy solutions.
Look 150...200 years back. That will be the future for many people who survive.
Perhaps some "nodes of complexity" remain where more modern power generation methods can be sustained.
Petroleum, in conjunction with a mechanized farming industry has allowed the explosion of population that has happened within the last century and has allowed millions (perhaps billions) to survive that would never have survived otherwise ...
If you calculate the amount of fossil fuels available to just fuel mining operations alone is a materials and energy problem. Not an engineering problem in the current system. It'd be great if actual "ENGINEERING" was a thing. But it's just not. "Engineering" and "Engineers" may as well just not exist. They generate more problems than solutions.
To be honest, ANY look at ANY household appliance and house hold design are AGAINST proper engineering. One important example: the shape of appliances, cars, homes, necessary appliances, and current electronic devices serve as incredible examples. Much of this is just stupid. But "PLANNED OBSOLESCENCE" is an important design criteria that demonstrates - real, proper engineering principals are hardly ever used. It'd actually be nice if engineers started to actually solve material problems. They just don't. Instead, they have been set on how to engineer things that will fail. To ensure repeat customers, and "adequate capital (cash) flow". It'd be great if actual "ENGINEERING" was a thing. But it's demonstrably just... not. Actual engineering is an absolutely fantastic tool. It's just never really been fully applied since Thomas Edison.
Want to see REAL engineering - look at what the Romans built. Much of it is still standing and functional - centuries later. Anything we've done since likely won't last ONE century. Fact is, without constant upkeep - they wouldn't last decades on their own. What the Romans did will, in all probability, still be standing long after traces of us are gone or abandoned. Or, even soon, can no longer be maintained.
I do not agree with any of this discussion. But only if right now if modular molten salt thorium breeder reactors are built to the tune of one per week starting very soon.
Thorium reactors can supply and replace oil/gas/coal within 20 years if we really try. That is the solution that Germany should be focusing on, and not Wind/Solar.
Thorium reactors are the betamax players of nuclear power. Where in Germany is the thorium going to come from, genius? How many years will the domestic supply last?
Everyone has a magical pill solution that's as utopian as communism or capitalism: it would work... if only people behaved "correctly" (i.e. not like people).
Simon fumbled a couple of things. First off Watts are units of power - energy per unit time. So Terawatt hours IS energy - energy per time times time is energy. Weird fundamental mistake for a physicist to make.
Second, completely ignored the closed nuclear cycle and Thorium for nuclear power. The closed nuclear cycle converts U238 into Pu239 and thereby increases available fuel by a factor of 100. So there are thousands of years of uranium reserves if used with a closed nuclear cycle. Then there is thorium which is far more abundant than uranium.
Also, magnets can be reconditioned. They age because their atoms drift out of alignment. Heating and applying a strong magnetic field can restore the magnet to full strength. In general metals are highly recyclable.
I think Simon brings up a vital point - our top decision makers have very poor understanding of the physical world, but I see some selective ignorance.
To answer these questions
1 - Yes this was a fumble. Watts are a unit of power, and watt/hours are energy. So this is true. It does not change the study outcomes.
2 - We had only 75 minutes. I did look at thorium. Uranium systems produce more power than thorium. If Uranium systems cannot expand fast enough to be useful then thorium will not be either. The world nuclear association describes thorium systems in context as I referenced. The closed system idea was not referenced in the 'blue chip' references. There are a lot of concepts published that are not easily defended to aggressive reviewers. The thorium fuel cycle has some challenges to it that the nuclear industry have yet to develop enough confidence in to make a change and adopt. I am a big fan of thorium. There is no real reason why we can't do it. In the end it was not included as the primary simulations because policy makers in the European Commission think they are going to rely on Generation III+ uranium reactors (or a small faction think Gen II because they are cheaper). The purpose of this work was to change the minds of those policy makers. So proving them wrong about future uranium NPP's was more important.
3 - Magnets can indeed be reconditioned. Not enough of them can be reconditioned to be useful in time though. Conventional strategic planning in the Circular Economy states that the primary source of metals for the future will become recycling (European Commission 2019 ). In 2020, there were 10 million electric passenger cars (0.7% of the global transport fleet) registered globally (IEA 2021), and renewable power systems accounted for 11.7% of global annual electricity production (BP 2021). The majority of the global non-fossil fuel industrial ecosystem has yet to be constructed. What has yet to be constructed cannot be recycled. As most of these renewable technology units have a working life cycle of between 8 and 20 years (IEA 2021), if all required units were produced in 2023, at best it would be between 2030 and 2043 before large quantities of end-of-life units would be available for recycling. At least the first generation of technology units will have to be manufactured, using the mining of minerals as metals feedstock.
The phrase 'in general metals are highly recyclable' is not useful when examining the majority of metal alloys in complex technology. If it was considered to be easy, recycling rates would be much higher.
The charge of 'selective ignorance ' is how we ended up with a 1000 page report, in an attempt to include everything relevant.
@@simonp.michaux1638Thorium is a back up to Uranium, because uranium is far easier to build a reactor for - it has larger capture cross-section for thermal neutrons. A thorium reactor would have to be bigger to compensate. At least that’s what I remember.
However, the main nuclear development thrust should be for the closed nuclear cycle. It makes nuclear a viable energy source for thousands of years by increasing available supplies by 2 orders of magnitude. In fact depleted uranium stores could be used as fuel for decades without need for mining. This gives us time to develop alternatives like thermonuclear fusion, space solar, or who knows what in 500 years
Please excuse my nit picking. I am thankful to you for voicing the idea that we must account for physical constraints and have some kind of plan. It’s far more important to establish that as the paradigm then to bicker about the best way to solve the problem.
My challenge has been to communicate with policy makers using references they themselves accept. There was group of these clowns that wanted to build all new NPP's as Generation II because they are cheaper to build!!!! I did get them to see what it would mean if Generation IV became commercially available, which results in more support for nuclear R&D. Small scale thorium looks like a good option. Then we get back to the scale up issues to make it available for everyone.
Is it true that only 5% of the energy in nuclear fuel is actually used in the current fleet of light water reactors? Is it true that new reactors and new reprocessing technology will make it less difficult to access the full energy content of nuclear fuel? Is it true that spent nuclear fuel requires a lot of energy to keep it cool before it can be stored in dry containers? Is it true that in 180 years we wont have solved fusion energy in partnership with our superhuman AI?
1, 3, and 4, true, although for no. 3, I don't know just how much energy is required to keep spent fuel rods cool. No. 2, I have been looking for a reliable answer to this question. Mostly just internet claims, rumors, etc. so far. One can hope.
when you ask a uclear enrgy expert they either exaggerate wringing their hands about the challenges and constraints as Michaux does here or they are sanguine as most advocates are eg James Hansen.
Wait, Simon
No way out
sorry, i can't listen to someone after they've said "mintech" twice
Critical thinking, that would be a Bachelor of Arts, vilified by Engineers the world over
Nate, you have a sad view of the best possible outcome in Ukraine 🇺🇦☹️
Also, if you don’t want a Mordor Economy don’t put the Orcs in charge.
Advice too young; learn to grow food ;)
No Simon, I don’t have any kids. Just sayin. If I did; you big you you)
Mr Michaux. You are supposed to be an academic, so please be attentive at what is happening around you in technology.. you are blind to changes that are happening constantly! Your assumptions of mineral requirements are abysmally wrong, overstated by an order of magnitude or more!