THIS Is Worse Than A Housing Market Crash.
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- čas přidán 9. 09. 2024
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When my wife and I went to the bank to get prequalified I was shocked at how much the bank was going to let us borrow. The monthly payments were going to be half my income. We refused to look at any properties in that price. Point because we knew it would be too tempting. Instead we bought a house for half that figure and have lived comfortably in a home we can afford.
You are so wise.
Very good move for the both of you 👏
Kinda reminded me of all the home buying shows on HGTV. Our budget is 400k.... Ok here is you a house at 500k 😂
Same thing just happened to us recently. We asked for a certain amount to be approved for since we have the down payment covered for that amount and of course the lender came back and told us we were approved for way more 🙄
Same. I was earning $135k a year and with a 20% down payment Better mortgage qualified me for up to ~$750k. There's no way I could have afforded those payments. Opted instead for a $390k home and put a $85k down payment and have peace of mind with about $1k left over on average every month after normal expenses.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Anticipate rising home prices due to inflation, potential economic fluctuations, and Federal Reserve actions, emphasizing the need for expert financial advice amid uncertainties.
I need a guide so i can salvage my port-folio due to the massive dips and come up with better strategies. How can one reach this advisor?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Sharon Marissa Wolfe” and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
I wholeheartedly concur; I'm 60 years old, just retired, and have about $1,250,000 in non-retirement assets. Compared to the whole value of my portfolio during the last three years, I have no debt and a very little amount of money in retirement accounts. To be completely honest, the information provided by invt-advisors can only be ignored but not neglected. Simply undertake research to choose a trustworthy one.
Impressive can you share more info?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
Things are strange right now. The US dollar is becoming less valuable because of inflation, and other powerful nations waking up to trade in their own currencies. Good thing is, a lot of people still turn to the Dollar because of the safety is somehow assures. I'm worried about my retirement savings of about $420,000 losing value because of these factors and more. Where else can we keep our money?
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I’ll suggest you get yourself a financial expert that can provide you with valuable financial information and assistance
Very true! I've been able to scale from $50K to $189k in this red season because my Financial Advisor figured out Defensive strategies which help portfolios be less vulnerable to market downturns
I just started a few months back, I'm going for long term, I'm still trying to wrap my head around it, who’s this advisor you work with?
When ‘Carol Vivian Constable’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(24 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
The stock market is no different, to maintain profit, you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market
True, I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
@@ThomasChai05Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
@@ThomasChai05my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
I'm a single, 43-year-old father who resides in Hamburg. If everything continues to go well for me, I intend to retire at age 50. I couldn't be happier right now than I am that I just bought my first house last month. I'm so happy that I made wise choices that altered my life forever.
Salutations, dude. At your age, you're doing extremely well. I'm 54 years old, and right now my finances are a mess. Any helpful advice would be greatly appreciated in helping to mold my life. I want to buy a home of my own.
It seems like I used the FIRE movement to manage my finances. Investigate it further by doing some research. With the help of a financial professional, they were then successful when investing in stocks, cryptocurrencies, and real estate.
great gains there! mind sharing details of your advisor pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help build wealth over time
Finding financial advisors like Carol Vivian Constable who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thanks for sharing, I just liquidated some of my funds to invest in the stock market, I will need every help I can get.
Crash! Crash! Recession! Inflation! It’s getting depressing. I have about $100k in emergency fund and I have been seeing good news about the stock market and would like to gain from that since I can’t let my savings be corroded by inflation. What stocks should I into as a newbie to safely grow my money.
Its best if you buy growth/blue-chip/large caps stocks only. Also, as a newbie its advisable you work with an investment advisor to help set up a well-structured portfolio.
If you don't mind, how can I reach this advisrr? My retirement portfolio isnt doing greatly.
I find this informative, curiously explored Vivian on the web, spotted her consulting page, and was able to schedule a call session with her, she shows quite a great deal of expertise from her resume.. very much appreciated
Unload stocks and housing. Find new asset classes asap.
How does a newbie have $100k saved just sitting in a regular bank account?!?
I predict a housing crash due to people buying homes over asking price, lacking equity if prices decline further. Foreclosure becomes likely if they can't afford the house, and selling won't yield profits. With anticipated layoffs and rising living costs, many individuals may face this situation.
I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too
You are right! I’ve diversified my portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $830k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.
Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you?
vivian jean wilhelm is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
What’s crazy is we just got pre-approved for a mortgage on a new house that’d be $2000 more per month than we’re already paying, and we are already feeling quite tight with our payment as is.
I was shocked the lender approved us for that much. Why would they do that? We’d be spending about 70% of our take-home pay on the mortgage. Is that what lenders are doing now, just to get something sold? Yes I have excellent credit, but that doesn’t make me rich.
That’s how 2008 happened. Giving huge loans to people who couldn’t afford them.
@@myyt3824 well, to be fair, 2008 included that people could just write down whatever as their income. liar loans was the coined term.
2008 all over again
My income is around 7 to 8 k per month the lender said you make good money your monthly payment will be around 4200 I was like that over half on my income, he said yes but still good money, I’m about to tell them
No I just wait abit longer
This is the worst housing crisis I've seen. If people don't plan well, their portfolios could take a huge hit. Real estate values are plummeting, and it's a rough time for property investors.
Absolutely, with the global economy in turmoil, housing markets are severely impacted. Many countries are experiencing record-high interest rates, making mortgages unaffordable for a lot of people. It's wise to be cautious with real estate investments right now.
The fact that there is already an excessive amount of demand awaiting its absorption, despite how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, is another reason why it is less likely to occur that way. 2008 saw no one, at least not the broad public, making this forecast, as I'll explain below. The ownership rate was noted to have peaked in 2004 in the other comment. Having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020, we are currently at the median level. Between 2008 and 2012, it dropped by 3%, and by the second quarter of
2020, it had dropped from 68 to 65.
Real estate and stock investments may be good decisions, especially if you have a solid trading strategy that can see you through prosperous days.
You're not doing anything wrong; the problem is that you don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high salary in these challenging conditions.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful
The scariest thing of. rushing buy an overpriced house is endless fixing and renovating.
I owned my home for over 30 years ...; with minimum Maintenace. Like a car, if you abuse it .. things brake faster/
@@betterhousedeals People were buying overpriced and older houses that were very outdated. I saw it all around me. Those older homes are going to need some big ticket things replaced soon; like roofs, windows, concrete, furnaces, sprinkler systems, hot water tanks, carpets, plumbing, and the like.
The housing market has to crash for things to re-calibrate again. There is no way the 2 bedroom condo's going for 400K in my neighborhood are legit.
We need a crash NOW!
💯. People were too dumb and greedy.
wow 400,000 I have not seen anything that cheep in a long time I live in the Bay Area a 1 bed 1 bath shack will set you back 900,000 if you are lucky enough to find one people are renting out backyard sheds for 1 800 a month
I think a price drop in nominal dollars is more likely than not, but I also could see the 1980s correction being plausible too.
Our 2 bedroom condos range from 800k to 1 mil. In a popular city things can stay crazy...
People in Canada kept saying this for years and years and prices just kept melting up. Imo we are tapped out but the US housing market has more room to run up. Just when you think that prices can't go any higher, they can.
It would cost me 60%+ more in monthly payments to buy a house now versus renting. I'll rent.
That’s a fact because that’s exactly what happened to me. Several years ago 90% of mortgages were cheaper than renting now it’s the total opposite plus some more smh
^ this is the way. buy only when it makes sense.
It would cost me 1000% more to buy ( no exaggeration.. I’m in Maui ) and it’s prolly really at 1450% 😂
I’ll rent.
Hey nothing is wrong wt renting
In san diego right now. Homes are 950k. Ummmm...thats an 8-9k mortgage...the home rents at 4k. Hmmm
Thanks for the video!
Having a 3-6 month emergency fund in these days, eliminating as much debt as possible, and sticking to a budget is so important these days
Having a 3-6 month fund is the rule but isn’t 60% of Americans can’t even foot a $1000 emergency bill? Does that mean more than 60% of the population will immediately be on the streets when housing bubble bursts, especially when banks freezes credit lending?
Most people are screwed if they get an illness and/ or loss of employment. Downfall.
Many people dont run through scenarios of "What IF X , Y , Z" happens. Its normally of "If I think positive, nothing can go wrong."
@@ralph4370 Positive thinking is awesome. Most situations don’t work out in a positive way.
Is your landlord going to give you free rent if that happens? It’s way harder to get foreclosed on than evicted these days.
@@devonrose888 So true: which one effects credit and rental history more?
Happens if you pay rent or mortgage
We live near Chicago and are just moving towards the country. It’s not too far from everything and everyone and it’s so cheap to get a ton of land, large home with loads of space rather than squeezing into something tiny and living on top of each other in expensive apartments in the city. And we can transfer our jobs there.
No just cause value if your home goes down, doesn’t mean your your property taxes will go down. Your city and state will need the same or more tax revenue.
Bingo. The taxes weren’t a result of property prices going up. The property prices going up was a result of the government needing more taxes. It’s deliberate, but let’s just blame capitalism and give more authority to our masters
We have the double homestead exemption, Once we claimed it, the lender owed us money back. Also once we hit 65 in 6 years property tax freezes, 100% disabled vets are property tax exempt, Current military are property tax exempt. We're good. We also don't have BS squatter laws. Squatters have to live in, maintain the property for 15 years PLUS pay 5 years of property tax to claim rights.
@@winniethepoohandeeyore2 You are the second person that has said exemptions at 65. The only thing i can find are folks with diabilities. What are you speaking of and where can I check?? Thanks a bunch.
Thumbnail goes hard
K with the vg
lol Yeah! Why is the dude in the thumbnail an ogre? Is this a metaphor for the housing market? The bigger they are the harder they...crash?
Ong great videos my guy love the thumbnail
The problem with today’s buyers is that they weren’t in the market in the early 2000s before the crash. They don’t understand that a house is a liability not an asset and that you need to make sure you can pay for everything that can come up. Housing shouldn’t go up in value, it should go down because the building becomes old.
Actually what you said is false. Building a new house has doubled since Covid. Biden just placed new tariffs on china which will raise new home building. Therefore even an older home will have increased value. I understand your point though.
@@MahmoudWaz My understanding is that most of the materials used in home construction is all obtained from North America. What materials do you see coming from China that's used in construction?
How is a house paid off a liability?
I honestly dont get why ppl purchase old houses when your getting a new build for almost the same price😂....i dont want that old crap
@@Westcoaststyling it costs you money. Assets make you money.
In the USA, individuals living in cars due to partial homelessness result from a complex interplay of factors. High housing costs relative to income, stagnant wages, and income inequality drive this issue. Job loss, weak social support, medical expenses, evictions, and lack of affordable housing also contribute, while systemic problems and inadequate policies further perpetuate the phenomenon.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Finding financial advisors like Iynne Marie Stella who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look her up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.
I agree don't buy if you can't afford it.
I’m considering whether to retain $3 million in single-family rentals, we have $900,000 left on mortgages. We are now the possibility of maintaining $70,000 annual income by selling and investing in stocks and bonds.
Real estate, while a solid investment, demands effort and lacks liquidity compared to stocks and bonds. Long-term market trends should guide decisions.
Sell and invest option viable, but crucial to consult a trustworthy financial planner for income projections aligned with your goals. The decision on when to pick an Adviser is a very personal one. I take guidance from ‘Monica Mary Strigle‘ to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
Real estate isn’t as liquid as cash or cash-equivalents, or even stocks and bonds. I rather the latter. Just as you’re experiencing, real estate can be a lot of work.
Strengthen other assets, consider reputable money market funds or mutual funds for emergency savings. Assess mortgage rates and allocate excess funds strategically.
Please avoid "large ponzi schemes" dubbed as treasury bills and reassess the perceived safety of bonds. Engage a trustworthy financial planner for prudent decision-making.
2 bedroom townhouses near my apartment in North Phoenix are priced at high 400s. 😂😂😂
They pull those numbers out of a hat at this point.
That’s not crazy cheap because they were selling them for 150s a few years before. Every real estate in Phoenix doubled or more in prices after Californians migrating out of their state started buying everything over asking price and in cold cash and started out pricing most of Arizonans.
That’s crazy. I lived in Scottsdale in 2016 and you could get a 3 bed house in old town at the time for like $285k
Unfortunately, there were a lot of people rushing to buy homes that they couldn’t afford when rates were at a historic low. So this seems inevitable.
when you said 25-30% of your entry income.. i QUIETLY WEPT inside.. 😢😩😩😩😩😩 50!!! my friend 50!!! 😖😭 with that said this is my advice. DO NOT OVER BUY! please DO NOT! better a lower mortgage and a peaceful life than the HORRIFIC pressure of a monthly payment that becomes "A GOLDEN JAIL" just like he said it.
It’s going to happen faster than you expect. The currency is collapsing faster than you are accounting for.
One could indication is the price of gold
@@i_am_thatguy1504 Our currency is no longer based on the gold standard anymore. Haven't been since Nixon took us off the gold standard.
If you are in a position (like me) that did buy a house and it’s a little over your budget, you can offset some of the cost by renting out rooms in your house. My mortgage is 2450 a month and renting the downstairs basement will give me an extra 1000 at least after taxes, property manager, etc.
Yep smart way to offset your housing expense
You mean house hacking?
@cyrusm3391 Yeah, that's what it's called. "House hacking." When you rent out the bedrooms, other units, or a portion of your house out to help offset the cost of the mortgage
Who has a property manager for a tenant living downstairs 🥴
1000 to live in a basement? We really are in deep trouble
Those that pay 100k more for house that isnt worth it; are 1st in line to foreclosure, HOA / assessments hurting homeowners.
With all the investors buying all the homes and Land for sale, there is no housing crash coming. Investors are buying to rent, the rent prices will be going crazy.
No real home owners and priced out of rentals.
Smh
I guess I should thank my lucky stars I bought my house in 2020 and secured a 2.25%. I want to buy another house but man these rates are terrible along with these high prices. I guess I’ll rent my current house.
The only crash is affordability, not prices.
Doomers at the train station.
If nobody can afford to buy, that results in price cuts
@@grays_garageWhich isn't happening. Investors and upper middle class still have a ton of extra cash. I'm a poor person with a wealthy social circle, and all of them have no problem buying houses (or vacationing and buying new cars) right now. It's only the poor who are truly struggling. On top of that, there are millions of immigrants from all over the world who are coming here and living in multi-generational households with multiple working adults. As someone who missed the chance to buy before things got crazy, I just don't see a light at the end of the tunnel.
@@grays_garage Not necessarily.
Crash happens when you least expect it.
I'll tell you the scariest housing story of all time.
What if current house prices become the new normal, and it's onward and upward from here?
*Regardless of what interest rates are, the current prices are WAY high...
The hell do you mean if?
These are the new prices and our houses just keep getting more valuable, it's fantastic
@@Postokon fantastic until more than half of society goes homeless and hungry and starts to visit you to nicely ask for a cup of sugar.
US has too much land for housing to stay so expensive in price to income ratio. We’ll get back to at least 4, could dip closer to 3 depending on how rough the next downturn is.
@@Postokonwhy is that fantastic?
It gives those already owning a home a larger financial "power" in the form that they can get more credit on their home equity. Enables them to live further beyond their means and feed the inflation loop.
This is why i love this guy! Please follow him.. he’s definitely honest. I live in phoenix
Those first time buyers here in Fort Myers Cape Coral are already in negative equity. They Dated the rate and Married the house. Those ones in the last year and a half. Ouch. Put down very little. You can’t date the rate when your house is worth less than what you paid for it. It’s not different this time! Doh
Monkey Werx claims they're flying immigrants and putting them in Port Charlotte...being done at night. Hopefully it true.
Great advice. Avoid the crushing weight of debt. Purchase what you can afford.
At the start of the lockdowns. I spoke to my Credit Union rep, I was in Real EState at the time. I was following up on a issue. The guy asks me my line of work. He tells me very smug, is it a good time to buy a home. I said NO, due to the credit restrictions. Rep further adds he has 2 home loans for his home. He clarifies that he has half of the house on one home loan and the other is in his wife name. I ask him "Why do you have 2 interest loans for 1 property? I would not advise that for any client" He then sounded dumb of "Hey I got a house" I tell him "How many of your customers have been new home loan applicants?" He responded with None, it was primarily re-fi to get money out. There you go.
how do you get two home loans like that? do you mean a line of credit or second mortgage?
@@chriswhynder8311 2 separate home loans for 1 property. Husband has half of the home debt loan and the the wive has another separate loan for the other half of the debt. 2 separate interest rates for one property. I Remembered a few years ago I worked for a school. A teacher mentioned how he and his wife had half of the home debt in each of their names. Since in California, home loans under 400k are regular loans and anything above 500k are known as Jumbo loans. Unless things have changed, going from memory. Since they both could not qualify together but could individually. Doesn't make sense since both under the marriage law are as one legal entity.
You made an excellent point. For everyone wishing for a market crash... the majority of people in that poor economic environment will not be able to afford a home when prices do come down significantly. Think of it this way... if you couldn't afford a home when times are good... what makes you think you will be able to afford a home when unemployment is high? That's not meant to be a dig but just another prospective.
My fixed rate mortgage has gone up 200+ a year. Went from 467 a month to 1100. Mortgage company refuses to work with us refused payments and "forclosed and sold to themselves with out any notification. The only legal notice given was a notice to vacate. So they can take us to court and the judge can figure out it they followed the law or not.
Your mortgage didn't go up. Your property taxes and insurance went up. Those were probably in escrow which means it's part of the total mortgage payment each month. It can change every year.
The new vehicle crisis is just as concerning. New car payments are now about the same as a mortgage payment not that many years ago. Inflation is making once financially stable families struggling to make their monthly obligations.
My rent is still pre-covid price at 868$ a month in new Brunswick. Buying a tiny house of 900 sq ft is now 200k. And my appartment would go for 1400$ a month to new tenants. I'm staying where I am. Yikes! Screw a house!
Im starting to see alot of price cuts on homes in the Phoenix metro area, is this a trend that will continue?
Home should only cost $130,000 today. A average home cost $12000 in 1960 the average salary was $6000a year twice your yearly salary, and don’t forget only one person had to work back then. Today the average cost of a home is $410,000. The average salary today is $65,000 so the price of an average home today would be 6 1/2 times your yearly salary. Life Good? Life Getting Better?
Thanks for your honesty Javier.
Always!
Love your content man, always on point. Wife and I just bought a few months ago, we spent a bit more than planned because the area is perfect and there’s nothing major that needs done in the next several years. Anyone reading this that feels the squeeze, just stay patient and stick to your budget. Stay hopeful!
Housing market needs to crash. People had FOMO and jacked it up.
People who FOMO made the right decision. If they waited, they may not be able to afford a home and would have been paying more in rent.
2:50 property taxes aren’t always proportional to your house value. Often if your house value changes the same amount as everyone else then your tax stays the same.
That last story was spooky. It matched my buying experience up until marriage problems, I can't break up with myself, fwew, but I did put almost everything I had into the down payment. I was so fortunate that the company that flipped my home actually put in the work that I am paying for. they added 50k above what they bought it for.
I don't care if my house loses value. Its not an investment. Its a place to live. If I never plan to sell then it doesn't matter what its worth.
I ditto that 💯
It matters when your property taxes are a percentage of your property's appraised value...
Smart person I never understand why people don't see their home as a safety net away from. Renting when it's finally paid off.
The only way I would ever buy a house is if it were exactly what I could live in the rest of my life. You said it perfectly. If I’ll never leave then the worth doesn’t matter
That is a great sentiment but you have to include Property Taxes. In many blue states, property taxes are massive. Combine that with the assessed value increasing prohibitively and you have a perfect storm of not being able to afford your home (even if it is paid for).
Recovery time after the crash will depend on how long rates stay high, and right now nobody can predict that...
If you cant afford a house you wont qualify.
You shouldnt be planning ob buying a house if your relationship is on the ropes.
You shouldnt be buying a house out of your price range and monthly payment.
All these pitfalls should be addressed before signing a contract.
Supply is so low that if you can barely make asking price, you wont get into contract.
Is there going to be a housing crash? Nope.
Can you lose your house due to unforeseen circumstances....thats always a possibility.
Is a rocky relationship unforeseen...no.
Is barely making mortgage payments unforseen...no.
Is getting hurt for 2 months unforseen....yes but you should have savings to mitigate this.
you never own your house due to property taxes alone. Or failure to pay HOA fees. The only advantage a house has over renting is earning equity and paying the bank a fixed amount for 15 to 30 years while the first 15 years or so is all interest. I'm a big fan of renting and condo/townhomes instead but what do I know.
I mean we either have a market crash or we won't ever own a home, if the trent keeps going up without salaries to match it. If they lower rates and give a fixed rate that would work too. I don't know why they are keeping the interest rate so high. It's set to go even higher too.
Lot’s of people want a housing crash to happen, but those companies are on the sidelines with cash to buy them up and rent them. family’s now have to deal with other families, investors to rent them, flippers,
Maybe, I've seen companies who bought houses to rent in 2019 and put them up for sale in 2024. Might be a sign they are losing money or on the brink of bankruptcy.
"A normal 3 bed, 2 bath house for $400,000."
Does uttering that phrase make anyone else want to vomit?
You're right. During the crash, things will get bad.
But there's no other way.
2 consecutive generations have now been screwed out of home ownership by a system we didn't create.
A wildfire is devastating. But when it passes, new life always grows
Just remember that housing is local. We skipped 2022 and decided to wait in Los Angeles expecting housing prices to come down with interest rates going up. This has been true in most of the country, but not los angeles. Houses keep going for over asking and appreciating at 3%/yr.
Not making any recos; just to say that housing doesn't prices dont move together around the country. Even if most markets go down, there will still be some stable markets or those that are going up.
Buying a house isn’t an investment..
You’re right…
Investment Property?
Buying a *home isn't an investment
Buying a house that needs updating and u put sweat equity into in a good neighborhood for the purpose of flipping or re financing to pull the equity is an investment. Otherwise yes, ur buying a liability and not an asset
What people people dont understand is that we just got out of the most affordable time. People who purchased during the beginning of the covid are not going to let go of their mortgage. For example, my house has to drop 61.5% just to get back to the same price it was in 2021. My mortgage is also 4,660 dollars cheaper if i were ro buy the exact same home today.
That’s exactly right, but what happens to the new gen? Are they doomed to be renters?
@JavyVidana they are doomed until wages catch up. The last time we had this happen was in 1982, and it took 16 years to recover.
@@JavyVidanayes and they can thank the fiscally irresponsible politicians that built this bubble up into insanity and just pushed it down the road. It's never a bailout it's always a bandaid.
Basically your attitude is, "I got mine, Let them eat cake". When the new generation sees no hope for the future, there is a lot of social ramifications that come with it.
You do not want to be in a country with a bunch of military age men who have no hope for the future. We are approaching there fast and this is not sustainable.
@dee6340 Actually, I am a real estate investor. I already purchased one property in today's market, and my goal for this year is to close on two more. But for the nun investor, which is everyone else. Yeah, eat cake.
We said Fuxx it. These sellers are totally delusional that the prices should be going up and wont negotiate even 2-5 % on the price. I agree they had a good run but we have no intention of paying $800,000 for a $450,000 house especially when you can rent a comparable home for about 50% or so in the same area. The game of musical chairs will have to come to end since the financial gimmicks like low rates, incentives, Covid rackets, tax incentives, corporate thugs like Blackrock, Innovation, etc are going the way of the Rome. Also, the demographics are clearly shocking when you see that another 30 million boomers will be dying off and or retiring in the next 8 years! Even if a fraction of them sell their homes say only 20% especially in the sunbelt its going to be epic.
I'll stick to my $404 a mortgage that we overpay the $125 a month principal on, knocking down the life of the loan more and more.
That’s one way of saying “I live in a trap house.”
Damn you broke as hell. Pay that shit off already. $400 payments on a trailer.
You have a $404 mortgage and can only overpay it $125? Lol. Give yourself a gold sticker. Put it on the fridge! SMH
You are in a very good situation. I’m interested about knowing the numbers.
Not everyone can live in their truck. Good for you
I think it is healthy to have a bit of correction on housing market. In South Korea, you need to work approximately 15.2 years in Seoul where most of the jobs is. Safe to say even if made it to become a doctor, a lawyer, you simply cannot afford to buy one unless you're coming from the money. This brought birth rate down to 0.6 which means they barely have 1 baby out of 2 married couples. This is major issue where younger people are unmotivated as buying a house is just complete out of reach. This not a healthy society/economy. Buying a house should be tangible and reachable goal and money should be spent on innovating things such as education, start ups and etc.
What’s wild to me is during a pandemic, the last thing I would ever do during uncertainty and lock downs is BUY A HOUSE. Not only did people buy a house when everything was so unstable, they were overpaying and waving inspections. In my mind, periods of economic, political, and pandemic uncertainty, the last thing I ever thought of was making a huge purchase like a house. People went absolutely bonkers
@allen7585 it was actually the complete opposite. The government pumped in tons of money all over the place and interest rates were still at crazy low levels. Money flooded into all assets and homes were no exception. Money was cheap and people suddenly had a lot of it. Combine that with people being confined to their homes and it makes sense why people wanted new homes.
But homes weren’t cheap when you were paying $10,000-$50,000 over asking price and waving inspections or if you had to buy a house just by looking at a video walk through because people were buying homes almost sight unseen. The government can’t be blamed for people being totally irrational about purchasing homes and not caring how they’d pay for them long term, especially in a time of economic and political crisis.
You can blame the government for keeping the rates artificially low. Allowing corporations to buy 30% of houses in record low supply market.
Currently 80 percent of the US housing market is 40 to 50 percent overpriced. Cities like Austin Texas are already approaching a 20 percent adjustment. Just give it time.
We need an increase in inventory - Supply and Demand. We need much more supply, enough that sellers are fighting with each other for the small quantity of buyers. But we also need panic. We need sellers to want to sell desperately, enough to want to lower the price, probably due to a loss of job. The problem is most have a good amount of equity, so they won’t be in too much of a panic. They’ll leave with some money so it’s not like 2008.
Gen X here. Its ALWAYS the greed of corporations that causes bubbles. Back in 2008, it was greedy wall street investors. Now, it's wall street investors again.
Yes but I cant stress enough how insane prices are everywhere where I live. Prices are high and interest is high and together its impossible. I grew up in a working class neighborhood, and I can not afford a home in my hometown now let alone any upward mobility. All these LLCs need to be regulated and airbnbs
Even at my stable job where i was making roughly 4k a month, im now making roughly 3k. We slowed down and my mortgage payment is 1300 + about 300$ in bills/utilities. It got tight. And now i have a leak in my basement. Im still fine. I live conservatively and have a decent amount of money in my savings and retitement accounts.
What im getting at is, im riding that line but im blessed and lucky at the same time. Do your best to live well below your means. Dont get the house you can afford, get the mortgage monthly payment you can afford comfortably.
Its not the RATES ITS the ridiculous price of these properties.
Prices are still TOO HIGH and UNAFFORDABLE for first time home buyers !
3 of my friends foreclosed their homes this year and yeah they are already in deep trouble. Interest rate remains high while the housing prices won’t go down…so yeah…we’re screwed!
I bought my house in Riverview Florida for $150,000 in 2018. I put half down from money I saved up and money I got from my grandparents when they passed. My mortgage was $450 a month with a $300 HOA fee. Now in 2024 my mortgage is now $824 with $375 HOA fee. I know that some say that their mortgage is $1500 to $2000.
Buy, or start saving for a modest home in a good area. Do not use it as a ATM. Pay it off. Love it. Live in it. When you are old you will have money for a retirement home and security is priceless. None of us are old, and then we are...
My wife and I got lucky in 2021. I received a promotion and we up and moved from GA to WA. The housing costs here were nuts but I had a great agent and I’m pretty sure I’m one of the few people to get a home below market value at that time. Thanks to Javi’s videos we went in knowing what we could afford and to not deviate from that. Thankfully our home is 25% of our net and during this projected downturn we should be OK as she is in healthcare and I’m with the government. I really encourage people to give Javi’s channel a thoughtful listen.
We’ve been on our home less than 6 months and already have over $20k in equity
Here in Illinois the property taxes are probably never going down regardless of home value
So my question for you about this is what happens if you have that federal job security and the steps and grades every year. How would this change your outlook on home loans? 🤔
Renters nation hereeeee we gooo!!!
Which is extortion. We need to ban property tax on owner occupied homes and have only income taxes, not both! (I know, some states only have property tax so they need to switch to income tax. If you have income you have resources to pay for taxes, but owning your own home you don't always have income to pay taxes!!!!)
If all the houses prices go down your taxes will not go down. House taxes are based on the mill rate. The city votes on tax revenue they need and them that is divided amongst the properties. The only way your taxes would go down is if only your houses value crashed and everyone else's stayed the same or went up.
Not in Florida. My taxes reduced to half in 08. Likewise they doubled in a year. Florida reappraised upon purchase. It's not like New England . So taxes can swing based on the annual appraisal exception is homestead which lock increased to max 3 % a year.
@AQQ529 florida would decreased because people's appraisals are locked to 3 percent increase so when all the home values plummet the people who bout later now have values similar to those with the homestead exception that had them many year so those peoples taxes go down and the people who had a homestead exemption for many years see their taxes skyrocket when the values drop. That would not happen on my state as there is no homestead exemption
Great message! A house should bring joy.
But if values drop in TN your property tax would not go down. Fwiw
What's up with people with houses? Prices go down their scared. Prices go up and they complain about higher property taxes 😂
as a Californian, i hate it here. EVEN if you budget which i did I am currently getting screwed by property taxes, and ALL insurances houses car health everything is up....
This is great advice and info
Glad you think so! What did you find valuable?
So I’ve been seeing a lot of fertility decline, or decline in births year after year. In 50 years, if the trend continues, what kind of value drop will we see?
Always great information. Looking for more to come.
I think a lot of people forget how many jobs were lost during the last crash. A lot of people think they’re still going to have their job during the next crash.
All u need is a 5% temp default rate. We are months away from it! 😢
There is a housing shortage
There will not be a crash
NO THERE ISN'T. That's been fake news for a while. YTD inventory increased 45%
@@user-iu2kq7nx8u awe you don’t understand statistics. That’s cute.
Boomers - largest generation ever- own homes
Millennials-huge generation of boomers children-need homes and are in their prime buying years.
Housing shortage. Not rocket science
@@user-iu2kq7nx8u Rather than spread false information, please take a look at the government statistics so that you can see for yourself
how significant a housing shortage the country has.
Shortage of "affordable" housing. Plenty of homes otherwise in the markets in general.
The shortage is a complete lie
Ask 10% less if you are going to list. Inventory spiked across the globe. Something is happening that’s not ordinary.
I had a real estate agent tell me to consider that my husband and I can get raises at our job and my literal response was that’s terrible advice 🤣🤣 I’m sure she wasn’t expecting that response from me lol
I was approved by my bank to buy a house at 500k but I decided to keep it safe and bought for 435k instead, it feels good to know I bought something I can afford even if I have to change jobs or take a financial hit, thanks for all your great advice mate x
I bought my home not for an investment, my plan is live in my home for rest of my life and my children can worry about if it was an investment.
The other way to be affected. You haven't mentioned. That is, you bought a house 4 years ago and since then it has had a significant equity run up. Instead of sitting there and watch the equity dissolve, you could sell the property liquidate the equity, invest it in liquid securities and rent until prices drop. Then you're able to buy back your house for a discount
Thank you Javier for some solid advice!
Missing information:
1. Homes are long term investments. Get what you can afford and you will be okau
2. Lending is 1000% stricter than 2008
3. Renting you are atill paying mortgage and taxes they are just someone else’s.
4. He never says how renting holds up long-term.
Do your own research
The bottom of the market was around 2011 which is when we bought our house - in the middle of the recession. Bought if for $517K; it'w now worth $1.5 million. Insanity!
I don’t know what to believe anymore! Better to be safe than sorry?!
Broad strokes won’t work.
You speak the truth. Homeownership is an expensive long-term situation that can go bad real quick. Maintenance and repairs alone can wipe you out. If you are upside down, you will be a prisoner to that home and hate it every day you pull into the driveway.
I dont understand how a crashing market is bad for real estate agents. Seems to me that someone will have to sell those distressed properties. What am I missing?
What we're actually wishing for is affordable houses. If the economy has to burn down to get there, so be it.