Why Ukraine Re-Taking Crimea Will Destroy Russia
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- čas přidán 12. 03. 2023
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The war didn’t start in February 2022, it simply escalated
it started, war starts when it's declared.
@@NotShowingOff Yes, that began in 2014.
@@NotShowingOff no, in your logic then England and Ireland have been at war all this time, Germany and Poland, Hungary and Romania, Turkey Greece, etc... NO one thinks like you because you are wrong, if War was just hostile actions then the entire World is at war.
@@Real_SkyRipper Russia Invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. That's when the war began. Obviously you knew that. Is it really a war though or a special military operation?
@@RussiasSufferingInUkraineI don't remember there being a war in 2018 between Ukraine and Russia.
*edit (does not mean that i am denying the fact that it has been happening since then)
That white peace scenario is like something cooked up by 90s international optimism. The least likely scenario. Even if it were possible, the "independent" Crimea would quickly become a puppet state of someone.
Crimea had a referendum in 1991, it wanted to become an independent member of the New Union Treaty. I.e. separate from the Ukrainian SSR. 94.30% of the people voted yes. You literally can't have Crimea not be pro-Russian without somehow dealing with its population first.
Yes under Russia who wants the land to stop Ukraine from having a huge natural gas reserve
Agreed. Really good video, but weak choices for a conclusion. There will be no other ending than sending 1 million Russians to Russia. Gather them in a line and make them walk. If you refuse, you're 💀
@@thoughtsofapeer >there are no Nazis in Ukraine
>posts this
I do find many peoples opinions on Russia kind of hilarious. For example in the US the Democrats have been retroactively criticizing Trump for the positive statements he's made about Russia and Putin in the wake of the 2014 and 2022 invasions but ignore how Obama and Clinton weren't any better, and with the wars Russia's waged in places like Chechnya and Georgia it's not like nobody knew what kind of man Putin is or how Russia operates. Large parts of Europe werent much better with their blind optimism in the 90s and 2000s as they got blinded by cheap mineral and energy prices. They dont want to admit it but many politicians are eager to end the war at least somewhat in Russia's favor as that makes things easier for them to normalize relations and open trade back up to keep that cheap oil and gas coming.
All predictions proved wrong.
Ukraine never got crimea back.
@@kap1526its a stalemate
@@Adonis362 nope , not at all.
@@projectedone what do you mean no not at all no country has made gains
@@Adonis362 have you been watching the maps? Russia is pushing Ukraine on all fronts and they haven’t even started their spring offensive in earnest yet. Compare that with what Ukraine managed in their counter offensive. The deep strikes behind the lines of troop concentrations and ammo depos. The destruction of the energy systems and the reduction of Ukraines remaining air defence systems. Targets that directly affect Ukraine ability to do war. It’s over and the end result is going to be the same. For humanitarian reasons alone this war should be stopped. Ukraine losses are not the 30 000 odd that Zelenskyy is trying to sell to the dimmer of the gullible. Washington post itself are saying that 700 000 are missing. Their hospitals and grave yards over flowing. Stop the madness.
Guys, how does the re-taking go?
😂😂😂
I guess fighting a super power was a little harder then everyone imagined 🤷🏻♂️
There are no tides in Syvash. It's almost entirely cut off from the Black Sea, except for a few narrow channels. Even if it weren't, the Black Sea tides themselves are nearly negligible. The water level of the Syvash decreases throughout the summer as it dries out. That part of your video is inaccurate.
I would love to see the Syvash one day. Can you swim there?
A quick search indicates the water level does vary because of the Azov sea's current pattern and the spring in flow from the rivers.
@@antonyapostolov8252 you can. But why, if the Black See is like 100m away? :)
@@TheErazar to try something different, simple as that. I already know the Black Sea because I'm Bulgarian.
Still a substantial choke point
I feel a better title would be "Why losing Crimea will destroy PUTIN", because Russia existed for 20 years without Crimea and was just fine. But Putin has tied himself so closely to Crimea that it's loss will ruin an credibility he still has.
Without putin russia could be destroyed
It seems overmanipulative in order to make people believe that Ukraine must not liberate it territory
Russia needs broken apart otherwise they will just threaten the world again and again. They are basically the 21st century Germany. They wont get the message to stop going on military adventures for the purpose of expansion until it is forced apart for several decades and only allowed to reunify once they understand how to function in the world.
With the now widely known fact that Russia was nothing more than a paper tiger, many peoples of the Russian federation will be looking to gain their independence from the imperialists in Moscow - so it would indeed be highly likely that Russia as we know it will fall as a continuation of the 1991 fall of communist Russia.
@@FuriousImp all russians are slaves of local lords, these lords must have private army to do something, but even then, it'll be complicated cause russia has more internal forces than their professional army before the full-scale invasion
This video made me think that *maybe you actually don't really know* what you're talking about 🤔
Beautiful animations, disastrous analysis.
This is why you shouldn't always trust blindly a well produced video.
This one for instance is purely done with obvious purposes of creating a misinformation and pro-Ukrainian Propaganda content.
The reality was radically different, Ukrainians were thrown to their deaths wave after wave, with no positive results
The actual decisive result from that and remember it: Ukrainians have lost definitely the initiative, they will not be able to launch any other offensive in the future, they will not gain any territories, they do not have the means anymore ...
Thank you Biden, thanks NATO, thank you uncle Sam
@@samirius6730 , you don't accuse someone of _"obvious purposes of creating misinformation"_ before going into actually obvious propaganda rant yourself 🤭
How's your crimea retaking going?
🤣🤣🤣 victims of their wishful thinking
Ukraine just surrendered boi.
4:23 - The Black Sea doesn't have any meaningful tides, so the levels in the Syvash will be more likely controlled by rainfall runoff from the surrounding land.
Surrounding lands is the Bassein of Don river. So at spring all melted snow and ice from the area size of France pass by there.
Crimea river
IMPORTANT MESSAGE
I invite you to Islam - i invite you to peace.
Worship Allah, turn back to the creator of the heavens and the earth Allah.
To him belongs this kingdom
This life is only temporary. We must use our time to prepare for the meeting with Allah on the Day of Judgement.
I dont want to enforce anything. I am only here to spread the truth.
I highly recommend you to convert/revert back to Islam before death - this is the best for you.
Islam is the best way of life! To find true happiness you must convert to Islam, become a muslim and get closer to Allah....
It would be good for you
I would like to remind everywhere that the word "casualties", in war-lingo, does not mean "dead", but it includes those woulded who can't continue fighting and are, therefore, removed from the count of troops. So when you hear "a hundred thousand casualties", always take the words with a grain of salt. We don't know if they're using the word in the real (dead + injured) meaning or in the more modern - and wrong - meaning of "killed".
To elaborate, in the russian domain, a much larger percentage of "casualties" become dead. Their inept logistics mean a lot of wounded don't get back to medical care in time. Battlefield first aid non-existent (Sorry Yevgeny, no tourniquet, have my box of tampons). Also MOD does not need 100k+, coming home to tell/show what's happening in the S.M.O.WAR and straining domestic resources (most of russia's wooden legs were lost with the Moscow-va (sic). MOD has been executing/incinerating their wounded to avoid the above. They then deem them missing, then don't pay their survivors. Those clever ruskies have probably figured out that when dead and cremated, they are far less likely to testify to the uncountable crimes committed during their infestation.
yea but if ur vegetable from the war u might as well be dead anyways
Its even more blanket than that. It means literally EVERYONE who was on your lines at the start but isn't now. It includes dead, wounded, missing, captured, deserted, etc. Everything.
@@cIoudbankhow many people will have that happen though?
@@lethalslaughterband5498 Ukrainian farmers wouldn't let the Russians get a single grain
Is it just me who noticed that there is something wrong about depriving people of access to water?!
Superb, Excellent with Historical Perspectives and Relevant Information Well Placed.
Captivating, Reasoned and … As Always, A Job Well Done!!!
Mario
Gotta admire your ability to soberly talk about the Ukrainian-Russian war for a half hour and then breezily move into an Ad about Hello Fresh. Thank you again for keeping us informed and fed.
It's called lack of empathy.
“need of money”
@@RockBrentwoodWhat does your comment have to do with OP's?
@@RockBrentwood Ukraine can easily take over Crimea by just destroying the Kerch Bridge, then strategically bombing military targets with artillery and drones.
Given enough time, they may cause an army rout without taking a single step over the peninsula bridge simply by pressuring them to surrender the area.
Orders or not, soldiers are people and would not be willing to give their lives defending a hopeless situation.
@@silveriver9 but cannot compare to what Russia does, right? Lol why don't live in Russia hypocrite
Correction: the attack on the Kerch Bridge knocked out one of the two rail lines as well as the road bridge. Russia has been forced to re-open the ferry service in the months since due to the massive reduction in logistic capabilities of the Kerch bridge.
Correct. They only very recently brought in the replacement rail section, made in russia and barged in. Might not even be tested and running with full capacity trains again.
And IF there are ATACMS in Ukraine - we will see the use of them and then the US will admit to having sent them. And I think a huge coordinated attack of all the drones and tech they have on the way - focused on Kerch - will drop that span for good.
@@bc-guy852 I agree it will be hit again. And possibly before any major ground offensive in southern Ukraine. I have no idea what will be used though. I have a feeling ATACMS really won't be provided as the cost and limited stock make the cost-benefit ratio too unfavourable. The use of JDAMs and GLSDBs is indirect evidence of that.
@@ktgs6723 re: ATACMs. The missiles aren't that much more expensive than a full pod of the smaller MLRS/HIMARS rockets. So cost isn't an issue. And availability/depletion of stocks ... that's an issue for every piece of equipment & munition getting sent. And while there are hundreds, if not thousands of targets that could be hit with ATACMs, there are only a handful that can only be hit by those missiles. A couple dozen for those really, really important strikes would probably be all that are needed. For most other things, JDAMs or other weapons would work just fine.
Correct. But both have already been fixed.
@@ktgs6723 Speaking of that sizing back Mariupol, would cut land bridge and allow fire to transport ships. As much knocking down Kerch Bridge entirely. I think the Ukrainian plan is rather to siege Crimea then directly assault it. Russia already could not effectively sustain area prior to war. As it has really poor agriculture.
Кто зашёл сюда посмеяться?
Есть такие)
Я пзахаха
Русские боты
меня кто-то звал?🤖
авг американцы заходят сюда посмеяться с того, что россия все еще не победила украину и с того, какой уровень ввп она имеет, будучи самой большой страной в мире
This aged like milk
Imagine threatening everyone with nukes because your losing a war you started LOL
Putin is a coward. We know that he’d never use them first as it’d be game over for him.
Imagine relying on $100b+ aid
@@Lilhajxjk274 imaging not relying on it when ur defending against 15x larger and 5x stronger country
@@Lilhajxjk274 lol the same for russia and britain in WW2 LOL dont forget george washington the founder of the united states of america also asked for aid from europe and got it
@@Lilhajxjk274 lol stfu ruski troll 💩
30:40 You do realise that the military base lease in Sevastopol is exactly the asset that allowed Russia to meddle in Crimea in 1991-2014 and to finally seize it militarily? Why would Ukraine agree to restore that situation?
Rather, the Russian navy in Crimea was the reason why Russia went to confrontation with Ukraine in 2014, when a color revolution took place there. Then Russia got a chance to lose its fleet forever because of the pro-Western anti-Russian government of Ukraine. The authorities did not need Donbass.
Yep. At the end of the day, the only outcome i see for Crimea is Ukraine just kicking Russian military completely out, and telling the citizens to either stay and deal with it, or leave for Russia.
@@Fillipok 1. Russian state awards (medals) for seizing Crimea were coined in 2013. The invasion and partition of Ukraine was in Russia's plans since 2005 when Yushchenko became president anyway, despite a failed KGB assassination attempt.
2. The fleet was to leave anyway because the lease would run out and its prolongation was extremely unpopular.
@@johng6080 'telling the citizens to either stay and deal with it, or leave for Russia.'
Ah, the glory of ethnic cleansing.
@@Pandamasque "a failed KGB assassination attempt" ahahahahah. Its just acute pancreatitis.
Your maps and graphics are outstanding. Great work truly.
🇷🇺👎👎👎
And hows this working out after 4 months?
07:44 Analysis of Gustav cannon on the Sevastopol fortress in WWII has shown it was effectively useless in this offensive. It was the wrong weapon for this kind of fortification.
Overall useless creation since they did not even try attacking through Maginot line
@@tmdwu5360 It's kind of crazy how many countries have tried the "insanely huge long range artillery piece" idea when with very few, very limited examples (giant cannon assembled to take out a wall at relatively close range) they've proven useless. Either they're so powerful they can only manage a few shots before something breaks in the gun, it's so long range it can barely even hit a city much less a specific target, or it's so huge it's rate of fire makes it useless which means people usually go back to the "as powerful as possible" idea and we go back to it breaking down every few shots and needing to be repaired which makes the rate of fire even slower. With the amount of resources they consume building, moving, assembling, sighting in, and actually firing it's often cheaper to just spend that fortune on outfitting a whole armored division and use that to punch a whole in the defenses.
Where the got materials to build that thing. Didn't Germany layed in ruins. Thanks for one man who believed in his nation
Schwerer Gustav was a useless weapon for anything. The same steel could make dozens of regular guns which would always be far more effective
A consistent problem with Hitler and his obsession with "my dick is bigger than yours" weapons.
Can you cover the Myanmar civil war? I'm very interested to learn more about ongoing conflicts other than Ukraine.
second this. Burmese civil war was really asymmetrical with the freedom fighter fighting with limited weaponry and even 3d printed gun
i wonder if the anti-junta forces are being logistically supported internationally since the junta likely posses a large percentage of the countries preexisting military supplies
It’s also be nice to get a video on Ethiopia. I imagine he’s probably not too familiar with those conflicts in comparison.
Right as I helped my classmates at my University build a student organization for Burmese students, the coup happened in the middle of the semester. A lot of their bank accounts got frozen. The stress they were going through was immense. And the stuff the Junta does to their people and ethnic minorities is unforgivable
Western backed foreign entities attempted to take over the country with influence operations, the Military said NOPE. Similar to a certain large European country I can think of circa 2013/14....
this didn't age well 😂😂😂😂
How did the "Re-take Crimea to destroy Russia operation" go? :D
According to the NAFO bots, the Ukrainian NATO backed army is at the doorstep of Moscow.
Both events have an improbability factor of a comparabe magnitude, on par with an allien invasion in Japan :)
as a person who have seen so called Crimean spring in 2014 by my own eyes. i may say that the people of Crimea does not care about flags. We just did not wanted a war on our lands. But a lot of people cant analyze and predict the future. So they thought that Russia will save them from genocide. at least it what the propaganda was saying. But i can say for sure, that supporting from vast majority of population is fragile. especially when for 8 years russian government did not manage to fully integrate crimean peninsula into russian system. so i can guess that re-integration of crimean population into ukrainian system is easier than a lot of people thinking. especially, and as far as i can see it goes this way, if the Ukrainian administration does not show cruelty towards the local population. and as the conclusion. no one wanted that war, except that ones who need to be hanged on the tree for their anti-human position. i remember 2012 when it used to be pretty good and respectful to work in russia. and a lot of people were immigrating in to russia and ukraini. it was golden time of our brotherhood between three nations. but now this piece of shit in the kr emlin have ruined our hundreds-years lasted friendship and turned brothers into bitter rivals. as russian, as crimean, and as a human i just want one thing a Hague Tribunal for Putin and his gang. and peace and prosperity for our brothers and all humans on this tiny piece of rock in the space.
It won’t as it can’t afford a rebellion their as that would stop them from getting funding to get access to the most resources rich area in the country 2 trillion worth of natural gas so I think your fine
I was under the impression that this conflict started because of the illegal and unpopular 2014 coup d'etat in Ukraine?
Эхъ, что же бы сделала Украина с этим Крымом? Также разворовала и распродала, как и сделала после СССР со всей страной. Украина за 20 лет владения Крымом даже дорог нормальных не построила, не то что бы аэропорт построить.
Конечно у всех разное мнение и будет так как будет, я не собирался спорить, но то, в каком сейчас положении Украина, это очень печально. Но я считаю, что обмануть всю страну на предвыборной компании - самая большая ошибка Зеленского, ведь выбрали его только по обещанию о конце этой гражданской войны, но он оказался тем, кем оказался.
"hundreds-years lasted friendship" was never existed, russians always genocided all nationalities, especially ukrainians
Thank you for posting this. Living in Canada information is slim sometimes. I’m so sorry your country is suffering so very much. 🇨🇦
It is just worth remembering, that while narrow pathways are helping defenders and create greated danger for advancing ones, with current technology it is possible to eliminate defenders fortifications and supporting forces before marching any forces into otherwise deathzone. How good the Crimea defense will be (if it comes to Ukraine's offensive time there), will be dependant on weapons supplied by then from west. Sevastopol's defences will only matter if Ukraine would want to take it quickly - if they would have taken rest of Crimea, then it can be simply starved out.
There was one famous attempt of the starve-out siege of Leningrad and it, unfortunately, didn't end well so I don't think so it is the best option.
@@Xmanpl1 Comparing city with vast land area to approach from all sides in times when tech wasn't enough to detect and destroy all resupply attempts by air for example to single city on almost island on west side of Crimea (so even far from Russian mainland) in times of weapons being able to pretty easily destroy any aircraft or ship trying to get near isn't good idea. Remember the context I gave - the Ukraine already controlling rest of Crimea, having constant weapons influx from west and not needing to take the city fast.
Lol ukraine doesn’t stand a chance of getting crimea back, its russian sovereign soil since like 2014? Or something like that. If anything Putin will evacuate crimea and nuke it before giving it to ukraine. They done said they will use nukes if their sovereignty is under attack. Good luck with your beliefs
@@Eshelion The puppet Junta is on life support. It will not be doing anything significant other than retreat.
@@Xmanpl1 very different. New technology, different geography and weaker Russia
Did I miss something I did not see how retaking Crimea would destroy Russia?
So how will this destroy Russia?
More castles fell to siege than ever fell to assault. Previous wars have been bloody sure, but previous wars didn't have drone and satellite reconnaissance and GPS-guided munitions with ranges so long that you don't even need to be IN Crimea to accurately hit targets there. As you mention, I expect them to destroy the bridge and rail connections, stop the fresh water, and launch precision rocket strikes any time the Russians try to dock a supply ship.
Да, а потом вы говорите что это не геноцид. Браво.
Что вы хотели сказать этим? Что надо убивать всех мирных в Крыму? Надо оставить их без еды и воды? Что за херь ты несёшь? О чем нахер идёт речь?
А потом задайтесь вопросами, зачем Путину это война?, против кого он ее ведёт? и для кого он ее ведёт? (Ответы: за безопасность страны, против таких как вы, для своего народа)
@@savik175 Speak English, since you understand it
@@MIchaelSybi Don't be rude.
Reading what Google translated hes kind of delusional.
saying that Putin is at war with Ukraine because of people like him who wants genocide or whatever.
Just trying to weigh in Well why should the civilians have to suffer to take back land.
say that they're going to kill all all the civilians and that's genocide and that's bad
They've had since 2014 to try that
@@MIchaelSybi It is human, you're just too ignorant too understand anything but English.
8:06 to be fair tho, the "Schwere Gustav" wasn't really effective, it had a low firing rate of only 1.45 shot every 1 hours (according to Wikipedia) and bombers or a lot of smaller artillery is probably more effective
Edit: had some numbers from Wikipedia switched up
Its not about the speed, but the punch being so strong that "artillery save" bunkers got destroyed by it
It was used to create fear more than anything.
its 1.45 shots per hour, still slow tho :)
Tell that to the maxim gorky 1 emplacement….
It was used to destroy deep storages. Bunkers. Important command centers that were either deep inside the earth, or behind meters of concrete. It did hit a Russian ammo storage in the beginning of Barbarossa, where it took out a castle. So it was quite precise.
Update-Ukraine had skill issue in re taking territories
Thank you for your detailed explanation. Now the whole picture is clear to me.
Well, the first new ukranian tank companies equipped with leopard 2 tanks have just recently finished their training. And just as a nice sidenote, the syvash is much less of an obstacle for a leopard 2 tank as these tanks have a max deepwading capacity of 2,25m and are even capable of underwater driving up to a depth of 4m with a diving shaft. In other words, tank companies equiped with leopard 2 tanks might even be able to cross the syvash even during high tide. This could potentially enable the urkaine to do a stormlanding during high tide with the objective to establish a bridge head past the Syvash and then have supply convoys cross the syvash during low tide to fortify that bridge head.
Mud is THE enemy of tracked vehicles. They have a ground pressure of 55 - 65 kg. per sq. meter. Russia lost many tanks as well as trucks that tried to go cross country on the way to Kiev. Amphibious Tractors work ship to sandy shore, but not mud.
@@everettputerbaugh3996 : Mud is less of a problem while underwater than while fully above water (because of buoyancy reducing down pressure), though I admittedly wouldn't play around with such an attempt myself. Any assault on Crimea seems likely to start with an extended air & artillery campaign, and only involve a land invasion after a wide area has had all troop concentrations squashed. There won't be a singular battle to begin any such invasion.
One of those leopards is already captured
@@paulmitchell6485no lol
It’s time for a little trolling
I really enjoy how you utilize the different map viewing angles to highlight a certain country's own geographical perspectives
☝️Congratulations you’ve been selected among my shortlisted winners, use the above name to send me a message 🎉🎁
Rotating the map is confusing and pointless. It doesn’t give any insight into a country’s “geographical perspectives.
@@weewillywonga Me tink it pwetty (but then again, I like to think of things spatially and I like turning objects around in my mind)
@@weewillywonga If you are equipped with the gift of spatial imagination (eg ur good at narrow parking), it is a joy to watch. If u don't have that ability, I can imagine how confusing this must be!
@@ChefGoreb I'm good at narrow parking this had me thrown off a bit.
Another excellent overview thank you.
You forgot two important facts of the long and complex history of Crimea. First, since its conquest by the Russian Empire in 1774 from the Ottoman Empire (the Ottomans/Genovese used Crimea-Caffa/Feodosiya as a Slavs major slave market), Crimea's population has become increasingly composed of ethnic Russians, Tatars, and Ukrainians. In 1954 Crimea was transferred from the Russian SSR to the Ukrainian SR and it has been mostly inhabited by ethnic Russian people. Wishful thinking, ignorance, and distortion of the facts should not be used to adulterate reality!
Thank you for including your sponsors always in the end. I still watch it and on top fo that, is not interrupting the content, nor pushed into the beginning when one is thriving to dive into the lesson. It's very pleasant for viewers this way.
Me too! 💙💛
Crimea is not state of USA (sure zelen ready to sell for couple of lines to Washington DC) but hopefully it won’t happen 👍🏽❤️
I would be careful about calling these videos anything like a lesson. 80% of the video is opinion, 20% is carefully decontextualized historical points, woven together into an invented narrative which, without ever telling the viewer what to think, paints one side as evil, and the other as good.
Now which would you support, evil or good? Most people pat themselves on the back for being against evil, and pro good.
This is a 3 year old child's worldview. A well integrated adult who understands that all human beings are capable of evil, and understands what morality is...Will question all spoonfed narratives, and what motivations might be behind them.
@@SubvertTheState You are 100% right my friend. I always make my panoramic view based on facts, not opinions and always taking an ambiguous position since like you said good and bad guys are for children. Everybody is after their own interest and masking their true intent with convenient morals and so called common good. But when I said lessons I wasn't even speaking about this video. I was comparing it to other channels and since the most I visit in frequency are history channels ( not political ) I spoke of lessons with them on mind. But I concur in every single word you said. If people would take some time to study history, they wouldn't be manipulated so easily... But they just won't.
@@SubvertTheStateRussia is the attacker which means they are the bad guys it’s pretty simply there’s no justification for starting a war
things can always be put in good and bad if you know enough about them and don’t believe the propaganda of a dictatorship
"Russian naval power will take a massive, and irrevocable L" damn near finished me off 😂😂 20:21
This channel clearly hates russia
I do not get it. Would you mind explaining what the joke is?
It's just kids thinking that saying l instead of loss is some kind of comedic gold
@@ernesto-dev we wouldn't get it
@@tosehoed123 "comedic gold" in this situation is not how the guy said "l" instead of loss, but the fact that we were simply not expecting this to be used on such a professional channel like this.
Thank you for your videos . Very interesting.
Hows the copium going?
should ask you
IMHO the importance of crimea for Russia's access to the mediteranian sea is overstated, because Turkey (a NATO member) can block all military vessels from passing through the Bosporus.
The Russian naval port of Tartus(Syria) effectively eliminates this problem, though resupplying it during a conflict with NATO would be challenging.
I guess the scenario for the explanation is that Ukraine and russia remain hostile. In this case, Ukraine controlling Crimea would effectively block Russian access anywhere outside of the Black Sea by literally sinking the ships. If there is a peace, returning to pre-2014, Russia is still capable to use Black Sea unobstructed, albeit without the access to the Sevastopol, which is still a big hit.
The main reason why Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 was that Ukraine allowed the functioning of the Russian naval base in Sevastopol, making the invasion happen from within the county, not from the outside.
Turkey is warm to russian interests, at least under the current leadership - as such I wouldn't put any faith in turkey blocking russia presently.
As they have been doing for most of this war. Perhaps they Ukraine who has taken down 18 ships in the R U Black Sea fleet will finish the rest off once they get in their F16's
@@Caderynwolf lmao what , Turkey shot down a russian jet in syria in 2015 and the west didnt give us 1 bit of support so we bought s-400 s to ease up relations , its kitteraly the wests fault for the seemingly warm relations , btw turkey is almost the only nation in nato fighting against russia proxies , Libya , assad and armenia.
One big thing he brought up in another video is the value of the exclusive economic zone in the area. Essentially, if Ukraine can get it back then they have access to natural gas deposits that would supply Europe for decades and ensure financial prosperity while also undercutting Russia's market share. That's the big strategic issue at play as well as economic issue instead of the purely military aspect
11:47 the other advantage of striking south from Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol is that Melitopol has the most active UA resistance movement within the occupied cities right now. The SBU could split the Russian occupied oblasts in two and there is *not* currently a strong russian troop presence along that route.
Strike south with what? 10 million Ukrainians fled the country, 250k were killed and another 250k were wounded. Their population is fucked permanently win or lose.
Do you even live on this planet!? We have the ongoing Ukrainian collapse in Bakhmut and Kremina, and you post this shit!
@@Swaggaccino strike south with the same thing that won them Kherson and Kharkiv durak.
@@AM-rb4ps They didn’t win Kherson or Kharkiv, khlopchyk. Russia withdraw voluntarily because they don’t have enough men to garrison entire cities with over 1 million population. Russia entered the war with only 200k soldiers. Ukraine mobilized over a million men and the only thing that’s accomplished is 20% loss in its territory. It took Ukraine 6 years to even raise an army against Donbas and they couldn’t even reclaim it from rebels. Cope.
@@Swaggaccino Moskva “voluntarily withdraws” into the sea.
Damn, this video was absolutely incredible, man. You (or/and your team) are exceptionally good at explaining and describing complex topics.
They are not explaining anything, they are just repeating US propaganda. This conflict started 2008, and not in 2020, as these propagandizers claim
@andrespinto Since this video first appeared, so much has changed, unpredictedly. Sit back and watch: Time will tell. 🇺🇦
it really didn't age well though lol
5 months on and Ukraine has basically captured nothing.
They'll never get to Crimea, the video might as well be "why Ukraine taking Moscow will destroy Russia" for how likely it is to happen.
@@basedstreamingatcozy-dot-t7126 stormshadow and taurus time😂 russias defense will melt away
@@GayTruckDriver dude, that's massive cope.
How many times have we heard "this new piece of equipment will be a game changer!" and then nothing happens and Ukraine still fails?
even funnier if you watch this video in 2024 when ukraine cannot defend a single town in frontline 😂😂😂😂😂
What a great presentation. None of us knows exactly how it will play out. But you covered so many angles
Absolutely. Fortunately/Unfortunately this "war" is turning into a game for the big brothers/elites. A game fought with the blood-tears-sweat of the little people; kind of like a version of "Hunger games".
As Sun Tzu says: 將聽吾計，用之必勝，留之；將不聽吾計，用之必敗，去之。
May there be mercy for the criminals 🙏
He covered it like NATO thoughts, scientific and unrealistic with the current situation.
this channel is Western propaganda bs, the Russians completed their objectives and secured the territories where majority Russians live so they pulled back they didn't got pushed back like he is claiming and they did that with 150k troops vs their 700k troops . And no Ukraine will never see any of these territories back, that's a pipe drream
@@dariomladenovski7047 lmao
@@BasicEnglish1o1 depends on which side of propaganda u believe in then ..
It’s fascinating to me that a destroyed bridge can cause so many issues in the 21sr century
Logistics Rules must be respected. You can't fight war without supplies.
Did we invent teleporters in the 21st century or something?
More likely invasion against ukraine can cause so many issues...
@@retsaminnavoig18 The Ukraine war is being fought like World War 1 for the most part because we're dealing with troop numbers that are way higher than modern western tactics are appropriate for, not to mention the outdated C&C structure of the Ukranian army. It's why the Ukranians are suffering extreme casualty numbers and still haven't accomplished much despite all the western tech they've been given - they don't know how to manage it, how to use it and their war isn't appropriate for its intended application.
Physics still work the same in 2000
Been going so well so far.
lol
Nice analysis, thanks.
I think 1 or 2 key differences regarding storming crimea:
A)while no naval superiority, ukraine can probably deny the russians theirs
B) with western intel and long range ammo, they can target the ferries with supplies as well as their exit and entry points.
C) with western intel, long range ammo, superirior weaponry it will be a lot harder for them to mount a succesfull defense and considering their quite apparant incompetence it migth just not be a good one in the 1st place.
What Western ammo? Reference what General Stoltenberg said last month. Deindustrialization is a bitch!
@@Mortablunt Stoltenberg said that we are using more than we are making, that's not the same as "we are out of ammo"
It will take years to recover from this war, but the West has a very very deep ammo pool to draw on.
@@Mortablunt Ground launched small diameter bombs for now
China?
Well said.
2/4 road lanes were destroyed, a third heavily damaged and caused fire damage to at least 1 of the railroad lines by the blast and fires. I think they just recently replaced the section of the rail bridge.
Bridge has been fixed for a while now
They didn't tell you, but Russian strikes on power plants were strikes of revenge for damaging the bridge. Not at all a "sign of despair". And Ukraine won't that happening again. But even if Ukraine destroys bridge, Crimea will stay relatively stable and happy, just like it was from 2014 and till the bridge was finished.
@@player1GR from 2014 until the bridge was finished they didn't have to try to supply a military actively fighting. They didn't have their supply ships being targeted by missiles and drones. They also have increased the population of the peninsula by upwards of a million people. Trying to supply Crimea without a land connection or the kerch bridge would be extremely hard.
@@player1GR crimea will definitely NOT be happy and stable if Ukraine fully destroys that bridge. Will be a massive sign to Russian citizens occupying crimea that things are getting even worse. After the first bridge strike there was a massive flood of people leaving Crimea.
@@player1GR lol everything from Russia is a sign of despair. What an unimaginably weak, unintelligent adversary.
Excellent informative analysis. I understand this issue so much better. ❤
You understand now better that Ukraine will never see Crimea again ?
No sign of crimea being retaken by Ukraine yet so this is extremley optomistic as of today
On a positive note Ukraine can cut off supply chains coming from Russia by targeting the bridge once again. Before any attack Ukraine would need to do something about the Russia fleet, then for the main invasion they would also need to be supported by an insane amount of artillery concentrated at front lines. They would not need to do anything with Sevastopol, they could surround it and bleed it out until it falls.
bleeding it out would still mean a hit on the population by the ukranian side. which would mean even if they would get back a not so happy region with lots of problems. because while donetsk and lugansk where in literal shit, crimea was somehow being used and developed. Only if russia crumbles to differents states then may be crimea will go without any kind of problem.
The Germans in ww2 took sevastopol and crimea in a little less than a month. So it's not as hard as he makes it seem
the bridge was repaired with brand new machines supplied by John Deere. you are being played like a fiddle.
@@UFCMania155 here you are really misleading - Sevastopol stand 8 months before was taken by Nazi. I lived in Sevastopol one year ago, I saw a lot of Russian troops. 50% of the city is military. This city will stay or be completely destroyed but Russia will do everything to keep control in Crimea. This is the real reason why Russia - from the side of the government will win and Russian civilians will lose this war. Crimea will be Russian at least a few decades if the ww3 won't start.
@@elegoz Germany also invaded first
How casually the war trivializes deaths of thousands, just turned into numbers and statistics. This is all so hard to grasp.
I don't think it is the war that trivializes death, Putin does. But get your point and agree the staggering numbers dying so quickly numbs us.
Ukrainians,russians,american,europeans NO ONE WANTS WAR
Politicians want war
@@istantinoplebullconsta642 putin is just one guy
@@istantinoplebullconsta642 No, war trivializes death in general. How many do you think died in Iraq during the Gulf War? Any clue? Probably not. Just a number. You might have an idea how many _Americans_ were lost during the 20 years in Afghanistan (especially since its currently being compared to Russian losses in Ukraine all over the place) but do you have any idea about how many Afghanis died?
What it really comes down to is information overload. If one person gets murdered, its easy to write a story and describe them and find people to tell you how kind they were and all of the other platitudes we see when tragedy happens. But when its 10,000 people? You can maybe try to humanize a couple of them but there's just no way you can get through that many, and nobody would read your story if you tried.
At the end of the day, we humans can't really comprehend "thousands" or "millions" never mind "billions". We can use those terms in relation to each other to get a rough sense of scale, but we can't really comprehend them in the same way we can comprehend small numbers like 3 or 5. And that lack of comprehension applies to war and other tragedy as much as it does to counting jellybeans in a jar at the local fair.
Add to that the fact that it doesn't really impact the vast, vast majority of us in any tangible way and we're not so much "numb" to the statistics as we are just.. unaware. Not to the number, but to the meaning behind the number. That specific aspect isn't really anyone's fault. Humans just aren't good with big numbers, no matter the context.
@@altrag I can't fathom losing a close friend or family member, let alone being in a situation where you and everyone around you can die at a moments notice.
Wow that was so informative.
Kudos to the author for knowing the actual history of Ukraine and seeing root causes of the conflict
80% of this video is wishful thinking at its best. if anything its basically said that this war was won in 2014.
@@connorf3517 yeah and other 20% could be russian propaganda, or simply wrong understanding of a conflict. Here it seems author actually talked with ukrainians about the war
RLL ~ thank you for integrating the geography, history, military tactics, demographics and politics into this complicated and excellent comprehensive presentation, best wishes!!!
2:22 Thank you for using the word "plethora"; to me it means a lot.
😂
How did this make me laugh out loud?
What does plethora mean?
Plethora literally means a lot
@@rehany3401It means "a lot".
6 months have passed since u published the reel. What has changed, is it Ukranian now?
So a late spring-early summer offensive to cut both the canal and the land bridge, if successful, would cripple Crimea's water supply while also driving Russian troops into Crimea, reducing available supplies further. If the bridge can be sabotaged again, that would completely cut Crimea off from all land-based supplies. A lot would need to go right for this to work, but it seems like the most likely plan.
The bridge will go at some point.
Then the question is will Russia retreat across the land bridge or try to hold on. I think they will try to hold on. Well really.. Putin will decide to hold on.
And the land bridge might go before the bridge does.
I think Russia's allies will push for "peace" where Russia keeps crimea. Personally, that's Ukraine's decision. It's their land.
Cutting off the canal is what triggered the current invasion. Cutting it again will lead to cutting off of road and rail links to Europe which Russia hasnt touched yet.
@Prabuddha Ghosh no it did not. That is straight up misinformation
@@prabuddhaghosh7022 Putin has been drooling over Crimea for YEARS before that even happened.
Of course there will be resistance, but honestly I think you got it. You have to create a situation that would make it stupid to stay, giving civilians ample time to flee to Russia. So really you can't take the bridge before refugee evacuations, otherwise their only option would be fleeing through a war-zone.
Anyone who remains would be considered guerrillas, and unofficially absorbed by the RGF, unfortunately becoming fair game. _That's_ when you bomb the bridges and cut their supply lines.
As for the offensive, if an attack can be planned during low-tide, then you would have a HUGE front line (in addition to using coastal landings and air strikes to break their defenses and scatter their focus). Also Putin would then have to fracture his mainland offensive even further in order to protect the peninsula, making Ukraine's resistance _there_ even easier.
It's sad none of us can help them with numbers, but the _actual_ state of the Russian Armed Forces is even more pathetic!💙💛
Whilst not currently capable of supporting large russian warships, it is important to mention that Russia also has the port of Tartus on the eastern med (in syria).
which would matter more if the Russians spent as much on their navy as they did on super yachts.
That's not a viable option. There's always a possibility the current Assadist regime falls at some point. You want a military base of that importance in a) a stable area where you're absolutely certain the political environment of the foreign country around it will always be ok with its presence or has absolutely no way of getting rid of it (Ramstein, Cyprus, various US bases in the Indo-Pacific region, etc*) or b) your own territory (Pearl Harbour, Murmanks, etc)
* Yes I'm aware Gitmo is a bit of an exception there.
That's also why the Russians felt compelled to act on Crimea, since their longterm lease with UA was about to run out and there being a fear of it not being renewed was, in my opinion, likely part of it. And I'm in no way looking for excuses for Russia's behaviour. If they'd just play nice, nobody would have given a fuck about their base there.
@@ryanjones2297 They are way too corrupt for that to ever happen!
@@Karlthegreat84
Russia was not about to lose the base, the lease had just been extended for another decade.
They just wanted to be sure it would be theirs forever, no lease.
As you said, had they not been greedy, Ukraine certainly would have continued to lease the base, even if they did join the EU. Hell, their biggest trading partner by far prior to 2014 was Russia!
Babe, Ukraine was gunning to join NATO asap. Do you really think Sevastopol would have remained Russian after that?
Great video!
Thanks for sharing hope that this war ends soon
Honestly, I'm kinda surprised that the Russians didn't build a water pipeline as part of the Kerch Strait project. Sure, pipelining water in is not going to be as good as seizing the canal, but if you run an undersea pipeline in over a relatively short distance, it's a lot less vulnerable than a canal in freshly siezed territory. Probably not going to be enough to keep agriculture fully operational, but it'd be a critical lifeline in a siege scenario where the Russians are probably pumping as many troops as they can into Crimea - all of whom probably need at least 4L of water per day (and that's really intense water rationing - 2L drinking water and probably half a litre at least for cooking means 1.5L for hygiene...so, if we take a 5 minute shower at 9.4L/minute, that's....a hell of a long time between showers!). Crimea has a population of about 2 million, so that's about 8 million litres of water a day just so that the people can survive on hardcore water rationing. You're gonna need to get that from somewhere and if the Ukrainians are attacking over the Perekop, that's not gonna be the canal again.
I say this not really knowing the details of the water situation in the Kuban (that's the area on the Sea of Azov that's on the other side of the Kerch Strait from Crimea, for those wondering), but the Don runs through the Rostov Oblast (which is on the border of Ukraine just north of there), so assuming that water is potable, that's really not that much of a stretch for an emergency supply pipeline.
Of course, if the Ukranians can get bombs on the Kerch Strait Bridge, they can probably get bombs into some critical pumping station in Crimea where this hypothetical pipeline would be running water to Sevastopol and other Crimean cities...and pumping stations are definitely harder to replace than bridge segments.
Also, this is Russia we're talking about. Making sound strategic decisions to deal with the possibility of an enemy fighting back more successfully than expected in advance of the war is not really what Russians are known for.
I believe the depth of the strait was the issue. Essentially, the same reason there's no way to run a water pipeline from Los Angeles out to Catalina.
@@VisibilityFoggy Ahh right. Could still build one into the underside of the bridge, but that would be subject to the same vulnerability issues as the rest of the bridge.
"Ukraine sieging us, LMAO! We can take Kiev in 3 days if we want" -Russia in mid February 2022
"Also, this is Russia we're talking about. Making sound strategic decisions to deal with the possibility of an enemy fighting back more successfully than expected in advance of the war is not really what Russians are known for."
Well, they're still holding on to the actually important territory of their Ukrainian conquests for over a year now. And in some way, most of it this has been de facto under their control for 8 years now. So in terms of strategic warfare decisions and logistics, they must be doing something right, especially considering that they're not just fighting Ukraine here.
This line of thought is of course only valid if you're not one of those who claims that Russia's ultimate goal initially was a full and prolonged conquest of the entirety of Ukraine. In reality, this seems unlikely for so many reasons. I believe, after analysing the entire conflict up and down for a long time, that the end goal of this conquest (more or less since 2014) has been to establish Crimea, a landline to Crimea, and a landline to Moldova/Transnistria, as Russian territory. So a negotiated surrender (which is how modern wars end) where Russia annexed territory anywhere between (a line north of Kharkiv, Poltava, Krementsjuk, Kropyvnytskyj and westwards connecting to Moldova) AND (a line north of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizjzja/Dnipro and westward connecting to Moldova) would all be acceptable ends to this conflict for the big bear. If this presumption is correct, then Russia's objective has not been a total failure at this point. And going further, or negotiating a surrender which align more with the larger goal, might be hard, or even unlikely, but it's certainly not impossible.
At this point though, I think they would be perfectly happy with a negotiated surrender somewhere along the lines of the currently conquered territory. At least for the foreseeable future. Landlocking Ukraine and geographical connection to Transnistria might be a too enticing dream to fully give up on, but there's too many unknowns down the line.
Although, the "white peace"-scenario would be the best outcome for all parties (UKR, RUS and the rest of the world), it's unfortunately very unlikely. But it's more likely than Ukraine retaking Crimea without triggering M.A.D.
But I agree that it's weird that they haven't laid a pipeline along the Kerch strait, but I've always presumed it's due to a reason like the one Foggy pointed out. Building a pipe along the underside of the bridge is something I never thought about though, and despite the vulnerability issue you bring up, it's a really interesting idea. Is this something that has been done previously? I've heard of pipeline bridges, but not bridges combining traffic and pipelines.
@@official_alphabet_inc It's pretty common in germany to combine bridges and piplines but ususally only over rivers not whole stretches of sea...
What you fail to consider is that the colonists since 2014 came for basically profit seeking motives, if it will appear likely that Ukraine can viably threaten it, most of the colonists will flee.
The colonists are your Nazi friends.
When Ukraine gets justa little closer to shore they will be able to turn off crimea's drinking water.
@@VirrealWorld Crimea didn't use water from Ukraine for 7 years. So this is not a problem.
Yeah, like Russia will let them...
@@kristjanpeil yeah, remember how Russia occupied Kiev and Kherson? Oh... Wait...
So how's your counteroffensive going? Did you capture Mariupol, Crimea, Donetsk? No, but hey, you've blown up a ton of equipment but captured some random villages!
This didn't age well 😅
@@andreablack822 3 months for Robotine happened
A major new factor affecting Crimea's fate is OIL. The northern part of the peninsula and the shallow waters in the Sea of Azov and around the mouth of the Dnepro river have recently been found to contain large reserves of oil.
The demand for oil is going to collapse in the not too distant future. If we keep burning this stuff we are going to be screwed, especially our children. Oil deposits will become stranded assets.
Nailed it. Natural Gas as well.
Loving these longer videos. Quite nice to put them on while driving around in simulators and listen.
@Reallifelore01 sorry, I don't have a telegram anymore. I can go over to my grandpas house and grab his.
@@realcanadian96 it is a scambot. Notice the 01 at the end of accoutn, which you do not find on the actual account.
@@Trombi01 I was playing around with the bot, I like to do that.
Don't worry. They won't.
Thanks
As a Ukrainian I can approve that video is pretty much accurate. There may be some unconsidered factors but still, good job
Would you deport Russians? Honest question.
You are pretty much a long lost brother.
Which side are you on
Well, the one important factor which was entirely missed by this actor with the mimics of a flight attendant, the factor which had been reported again and again by all Ukrainian sources, that when the “land bridge to Crimea” is sealed by ЗСУ, all the military installations in the peninsula will be ceaselessly bombarded to hell.
@@CGplay186 does being so delusional physically hurt?
@@CGplay186 Ukraine should never forgive russia for the red famine
Crimea is a perfect example of why it's crazy for Russia's neighbors to allow Russian citizens into their country.
Wow you must not have a clue about Crimea then . Most of the "Pro Russians" in Crimea were people who lived there under Soviet occupation their whole life up until the collapse of the Soviet Union
First comes the Russian language and Russian "culture", then comes Russian business, tanks come last
Replace Russia with china and you have exactly what’s happening to the Americas, though, that’s the least of our worries.
Without having a Wade-Davis Bill you mean. Granted, those were entirely domestic enemies.
@@m_migunova Sadly, it really is very dangerous for any country bordering Russia to have a significant Russian population in any of its regions. Putin has shown that he considers it his right to unite any such regions regions of these countries with the motherland, even if Russians are a minority there. The sovereignty of his neighbours means nothing to him. This will persist for his successors while Russia remains a despotic state, which is likely for at least a generation.
Come on, look what they achived in the offense so far and for what price. Its not going to happen. Its a stalemate now.
Probably one of the best videos on you tube. Thank you for being non political and outlining the facts, a rare skill today
He isn't, look into Conflict Intelligence Team. Because this analysis is a b*lshit.
None political..Calling it Putin`s-regime when he is elected President, how about Biden`s-regime or Van Der Leyen`s-regimes!?
According to publications, the tide in the Black Sea is only about 20 cm (i.e. 8 inches). This doesn't really change much in crossing the Syvash; where I would expect that almost no tide exists. This is because it is part of a much smaler basin that is barely connected to the Black Sea. I would expect that water levels in the area change more due to wind forcing than due to the movement of the moon.
Yes, Soviets used this route when they captured Crimea (notably it was not Soviets, but Makhno).
I absolutely agree. Actually studies put it closer to 6cms. It is completely negligible. Why did they include this nonsense?
Just do a land reclamation, filling with dirt and rocks from nearby mountains
@@ssanonswu2010 how exactly are they gonna do that in the middle of an active war zone while being bombed?
@@ssanonswu2010 WHAT nearby mountains? The only mountains in Ukraine are in the far west along the borders with Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and in southern Crimea. That's why it's so easy for Russia to invade.
Its physically impossible to hold Crimea without land bridge. Crimea also has no water supply, its completely reliant on series of dams in Ukraine. Liberation of Crimea will be surely a hell of a difficult task to pull of still, but its more possible then impossible.
Lol, Crimea "has no water supply" for 8 years already.
@@lolnoobus Why has Russia not put in a Desalination plant, if there is no water, how can 1 million plus people live there??
@@lolnoobus There's a difference between natural water sources vs imported water sources.
> Its physically impossible to hold Crimea without land bridge.
Objectively, its very possible to hold Crimea without the land bridge. To re-take Crimea, Ukraine will have to have an offensive capability it has currently isnt close to having (and the West will be extremely reluctant to provide/subsidize). If Ukraine really gets to a point where the remaining objective for offense is Crimea, their problem will be that Russia's only remaining objective for defense is Crimea. Barring a regime change in Russia (or even with one), it seems highly unlikely Ukraine will be able to sustain an invasion that will require months of time, hundreds of thousands of troops, tens of billions of dollars. (And, given that Putin is a monster, it must also be considered that if there were a massive Ukrainian invasion force clustered together just north of Perekop, would that not be ideal time for Putin to utilize one or more tactical nuclear missiles?)
@@larryreddecliff2284 why you are asking me? It wasnt I, who claim that Crimea gets all their water from Ukraine.
This morning I was like man real life lore hasn't posted in a min and here he is. One of my fav history/geography channels
Dude he posted 12 days ago...
one of my fav propaganda channels
he's the king of this shit. no one even comes close.
Well-researched and approachable information. it's very broad and simplified but palatable to the audience he caters to.
@@tavshedfjols you're gonna have to back that up with specific details if you're gonna make that kind of claim
Yes.
Just because unthinkable things happened, realism shouldn't be outdated. The return of Crimea could be more a result of Russia's economic and political rather than military collapse.
True enough. But that seems to be all that's needed. And it's on the way to happening
Could be both as the two are often very much linked. A collapsed economy is part of why Russia imploded in WW1. And the same thing would later happen to Germany on the Western Front.
@@saintjames1995 don't get deceived by msm
I don't think with Putin's iron fist on Russia that's gonna happen anytime soon with him in power
This channel is not a "real life lore", now it's more like a "wannabe world lore"
Video is titled "Destroy Russia", in actual video: even in the best scenario Crimea stays Russian or independent.
This channel needs more love fr.
Crimea is majority ethnically Russian, and it was also before 2014.
Even if the Ukrainians manage to retake it, I highly doubt the locals will just obey Ukrainian Authority without armed or unarmed resistance.
Moreover,Moscow will spend every last penny to keep the Peninsula,so not to lose the strategically important Port of Sevastopol,as it is the only port they control that can host the Black Fleet HQ,maybe only Novorossyrsk could replace it.
High tech satellite coverage would reduce casualties and would permits to focus the HIMARS and ATACMS missiles to blow into Logistic nodes and Militar concentrations located in Crimea, the only actual needing for this is to recover Southern Ukraine steppe (Melitopol, lower Kherson, Mariupol, etc) to ensure a missile hostigation... coordinated with Mobile/Phone tracking and another techs for crushing Russians like in Makiivka's platoon concentration
By the time the bottlenecks would help to move the people away from Crimea (water or fuel, principally). Despite the maneuver difficulty, Ukraine should avoid to strike civilians in order to avoid retaliation feelings (the same feelings that generated Ukrainian resistance) and make the civilian retirement more viable
While you're not wrong, keep in mind that satellites are for searching, but they do not make good for tracking.
К этому времени начнется 3 мировая(((
@@savik175 Don't worry - nothing of the sort will happen. This video is based on fiction and is not rooted in reality. How the utterly depleted UAF could beat Russia's Deep Battle Doctrine is beyond anyones guess. This summer NATO will run out of ammunition and the war will be basically over in autumn.
What if we dropped missiles from space onto crimea
@@CharChar2121 that's right, satellite aren't a warranty
Usage should be coordinated with sophisticated internet/mobile tracking like in Makiivka's platoon strike
“Massive and irrevocable L” could not have said it better RealLifeLore👏👏👏
This video aged like milk
4:25 Sea of Azov has no appreciated tidal flow. -They do have winds that will raise/lower water levels. Also seasonal changes of water levels.
There is also one additional route into Crimea that is called Arabat spit. Also it would be great if you mentioned in this video how during as we call it “Liberation competitions” or known for others as “russian civil war” we Ukrainians fought for Crimea and it would be great if you mentioned “Crimean operation” led by Petro Bolbochan in 1918
Do you mean Chongar? Because Arabat leads nowhere, it is a thin strip of sand with no road or infrastructure on it.
Chongar is not an option of trespassing for the attacking side. It is practically a bridge upon the strait that is a part of Siyavush Marshes, or the Inner Sea of Crimea, mentioned in the video. It is highly vulnerable for the attackers because the bridge could be mined and blowed when the attack starts. Moreover, I'm confident that Russians will blow the bridge even before Ukrainian force would appear there, right after they hypothetically lose Genichesk (i.e. Black Sea Depression) and the Russian army flees the north toward Crimea. Therefore, attacking through Chongar is equal to attacking through Siyavush Sea.
there is that and another highway but it is easy to stop a convoy going through a narrow road.
@@rustemzholdybalin6210 yea, also there is Chongar, good mention. Even if it is difficult to make offensive from that side I think it would be nice to mention it
@@viktorm3840 EVEN if Siyavush dries off, and it is unlikely at all, it would convert into giant stinky mud with very humid soil, impassable for anything that weights more than 10 kilo)
You never fought for Crimea because it had anything to do with Ukraine, because didn’t. You fought for it because we used to be the same people living in the same country.
This video misses the fact that Ukraine has just been giving GMLRS with 150 km range. None of the previous Crimea attackers had that capability. UA is not going to just stream into a kill zone. They’re going to soften up defenses first at range.
Lol interesting fantasy.
This video also misses some common sense - its the war it self that will destroy russia, not the loss of Crimea.
That don't work due to russian jamming of GPS.
How is a couple of gmlrs ammo going to soften up defenses?have u seen battle of bakhmut and how much artillery is used on a single trench?there has to be hundreds of not a thousand blackened pockmarks in a single field.
First they need to cut to the azov sea.
That will cut the real resupply.
Then destroy the rail bridge, then half the road bridge and damage the last half.
At that point, the Russians can't resupply. The ukrainians can spend months killing Russians in static positions before piercing the line and flanking... as they did in kharkiv.
Ukraine will not re take Crimea, it doesn’t have the ability to do so, not my an enormous margin.
An attempt to re take the land would result in catastrophic destruction and huge losses on both sides, the attack would also certainly end in failure.
👍 well done
The Ukrainians have proved to be innovative tactical and strategic thinkers and have clearly adapted and evolved their tactics and doctrine since last year. If there is one underlying theme that I see, it's the consistent application of "corrosion" philosophy of Russian force attrition and emphasis on logistic degradation. My own non-expert take is that an attempt to logistically isolate Crimea is the most logical path forward. This approach could be successful particularly if ATACMS are allowed into the theater by the US.
So essentially just a 21st century take on old-school siege warfare, cut off the supply lines, starve em out, force the opponent to the negotiating table. Smart option honestly
They'd have to take the land corridor to do that, and Russia will fight hard there since they know the risk of losing it.
US doesn't have enough ATACMS systems to share with Ukraine.
Plus longer Ukraine takes to launch offensive, the more time Russia will spend fortifying the land corridor, but Ukraine has to wait because they don't have the weapons to make the attempt. So time is favoring the Russians as the defenders.
The US*, every battle strategy, piece of intel and military technology is being supplied by the USA. Don’t be stupid, it’s a proxy war, it always has been and will continue to be so.
looking at the map, I think Maritpol is the most likely target for the Ukrainian forces- Pull force to the north , keep a reduced force near Kherson Oblast, have the north force sweep down, breaking the material chain then acting as a pincer.
'he who controls Sevastopol controls the black sea'
So we're just forgetting about Istanbul than are we?
Russians were majority in Crimea long time before 1944. Сrimea have never been Ukrainian territory ethincally.
Все равно, этнически справедливо отнести Крым к крымским татарам, которых советская власть жестоко депортировала из крыма
@@user-py8xb5ds2c Дедушка Ленин в своё время "нарезал" кучу однонациональных республик. Что вышло в результате, думаю, объяснять не надо.
Крым и при Крымском ханстве был многонациональным. Сейчас Крым этнически отнесён к трём национальностям, что, пусть и грубо, но всё же отражает реальную ситуацию. Пусть лучше будет так, как есть.
BS Odessa was Russian, Katherine the Great ruled over Ukraine, Ukraine didn't exist.
Don`t worry. You discuss thing that cannot happen.
@LazTheTurtle You're right: a pig can fly, but, unfortunately, only very low.
Wow everything you predicted is wrong except Ukraine casualties
Yours need to consider the fact that the Russians have had a difficult enough times, playing their forces by rail and land, and will most likely not be able to support the units. They have guarding Crimea as the bridge that connects Crimea to the rest of Russia has been destroyed or damaged showing that the troops may have a good position, but might run out of supplies before they can hold an affective defense
and with drones and smart precision weapons life would be very difficult in Crimea.
Yeah because you are some how am expert because you watch Fox News and cnn
@@MrMuaythai84 And you're an expert because? If the land bridge, sea bridge and air bridge is cut off, how would you resupply Crimea, or anywhere else for that matter? I'm all ears.
The Kerch bridge will definitely be destroyed, properly this time. The Russians in Crimea will just be isolated and will have to surrender.
@@ddr.5959 there is no such thing as "cutting off the sea bridge and air bridge". I know the common perception of modern military equipment is that every inch of space is monitored and nothing can break a blockade conducted by a military, but the reality is in the past throughout history as well as more recent examples, including in this very russia-ukraine war, there is no such thing as a fool proof blockade.
btw, Ukraine maybe has the capacity to force a permanent closure of the land bridge, but between Ukraine and Russia, it isn't Ukraine which is or ever will be in a position to enforce a sea and air blockade.
Well.. Here they came and did an amphibious landing xD
I see a way to unwind the war ….
Very difficult but doable
170 years later, and we're back in Crimea again
Ukraine won’t give up the idea of getting Crimea back under its own flag, and one of your own earlier videos detailing “exclusive economic zones (EEZ)” explains why: the natural gas and oil resources beneath the floor of the Black Sea could go a long way toward Ukraine’s economic recovery, if not actually bringing long term economic prosperity (as long as the corruptocrats and oligarchs don’t monopolize it first).
"corruptocrats" is my new favorite term.
2 giant gas deposits worth $00T’s were discovered around 2010 and were sold to both Shell (Donetsk/Kharkiv) and Chevron (Lviv) in 2013. They both pulled the plug in 2017 as the Donbas War was still going on. In that scenario Ukraine would be swapping Russian gas with for their own gas but the profits go to the US/UK. I doubt they’d want to be dealing with Russia at all anymore now but they’re likely going to have even less control and autonomy over their resources after the war whether Russia achieve their territorial goals (imo is basically what they have now plus as more of Dontesk as they can get). I don’t think Putin is some lunatic who wants to recreate the Russian Empire but is a pretty typical geopolitical realist and capitalist imperialist. Secure Crimea and get its water back running; win some land rich with resources, mines and industry; stop Ukraine/US/EU disrupting their monopoly on Euro energy; stop/delay Ukr joining EU/NATO until they’ve done everything else.
The US’s and basically the UK’s goal is basically turn and keep European energy away from Russia and towards importing LNG from the US instead; increase defence spending and get other NATO members to do so; trap Ukraine in an unpayable debt so they can have a big asset & resource grab when its all over.
I hope Ukraine will defeat the invaders, but I find the idea that the US & UK (& Russia) have any moral high ground or are fighting for a just cause completely laughable.
this is also the reason that ukraine has already lost...
@@haplon33 that's quite a controversial opinion, given how absolutely pathetic Russia's performance has been.
@@benthomason3307 lol ya they only have all the natural gas and are securing new territories. thank goodness they were only fighting ukraine, huh? tho i guess if ukraine loses 100% of their cities they'll be in an even more perfect counterattack position, according to many brilliant youtube military minds
Спойлер: не смогут))