The U.S. Job Market: 4 Big Problems Hiding Under the Surface
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- čas přidán 2. 06. 2024
- The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low and the U.S. added 225,000 jobs a month last year. That’s one of the big reasons money managers say they’re confident about the stock market in 2024.
But when you dig into the data, there are four serious problems that show the U.S. labor market isn’t nearly as strong as it seems. I take a look at what weaknesses in the labor force, data revisions, hours and wages and unemployment claims could mean for the U.S. job market.
0:00 Strong job market?
0:38 Weakness in the labor force
2:00 Revisions to the jobs report
2:58 Hours and wages
3:37 Time on unemployment
4:16 What does this mean for the economy?
I’m Dion Rabouin, a WSJ reporter covering markets and the economy. I’ll be diving into all things finance, from the popular and well-known - like crypto and stocks - to the complex and intricate - like leveraged loans, derivatives and private equity. Subscribe to join me as I take a deep dive into what’s making money move and why it matters.
#JobMarket #Unemployment #DionRabouin
It's hard to care about your job when a studio apartment is $4000 a month.
The jobs market is trash! These numbers are skewed because they count part time jobs. Full time jobs have fallen off a cliff.
Exactly
Sharing this at my job where people keep trying to say that jobs numbers are strong😂
People at my job keep saying that too...
Savage 😂
Have the misfortune of losing your job and you'll experience how bad 👎 the job market really is.
These people have a propensity of lying 🤥.
your telling me we added 2.7 million jobs to the market last year? and im telling you im the queen of england.
lmfaooooooooo. bs jobs maybe like minimum wage. not real 70k a year jobs
The economy sucks now, just like it always has. Crappy jobs are the norm again. Along with employers who want 5 years experience for an 'entry level job'.
They cooking the books
I like this guy. Well spoken and does a really great job overall!
THANK YOU for making this video!
It absolutely grinds my gears when economists and so called "experts" boast about how great the economy is while at the same time blatantly ignoring the ugly other half of the equation. Especially when people just have a quick glance at an unemployment graph, and then immediately berate you for being out of work. "Unemployment's at an all time low! Yet you are out of a job! What's going on???" smdh......
Thanks for watching and for the comment. Definitely gotta look beyond the headlines.
Excellent video!! Thank you for digging into those numbers!! 💯
My pleasure! Glad you enjoyed it.
Unemployment numbers only tells you the amount of people currently receiving unemployment benefits. It doesn’t tell you How many of the jobs are part time? Seasonal? Without benefits? How many people not working or looking for work? How many women have left workforce due to cost of childcare?
Indeed. These are the details you have to dig into in the jobs report. We talked about some of these on today's livestream.
So ridiculous, so many lies from All the Data especially the Inflation data and GDP data, usa is in Recession they just faking it.
I'm gainfully employed (including being happy with my pay) but seeing reports of a lot of jobs being added never moves me. I'm in the D.C. area. A lot of these jobs are ghost jobs and many of the real ones have wild requirements with low pay. My now former employer frequently posted jobs they already had INTERNAL employees picked out for. Many post jobs strictly for legal reasons. Underemployment is almost as bad an unemployment. The strong job market is fake.
I truly believe this . This is how I got to this video . I feel a lot of entities are posting ghost jobs to meet requirements and even doing interviews wasting job seekers time and money. It costs to prepare for an interview mentally and financially.
There’s a bunch of low paying not worth doing jobs out there right now. It’s cheaper to stay at home than it is to work anything less than $15 an hour
Especially if you live in high expense areas.
This could also be playing a role in the low participation rate.
You have to have 25 different skills to get a job which pays 20 an hour, be skinny, be 19-23, have house parties (you pay for all drinks), drive a car you can’t afford, know an influencer, have your own health insurance, reconsider going to Starbucks, do odd jobs for grandma (like clean the sliding rail with a toothbrush), ask your parents how they could afford booze but not a trig tutor when you were in high school, go to conferences (for the free bagels), hug your pitbull on bad days, fantasize about becoming a nomad, immerse yourself in Netflix, check your phone battery when the phone stops ringing, and scan the parking lot for twenties.
Awesome video thanks
Glad you enjoyed it
Thanks yet again sir.
Thanks for sharing
Excellent analysis
Thank you
I have been searching for an IT job, and I have a stellar resume with 15 years of experience. I only get an interview from about 10% of the local jobs that I apply to. It has been very discouraging.
I'm sorry to hear that.
At this point, Universal Base Income sounds like a necessity. I mean, how the hell else are you gonna support people when the system refuses to teach people or provide jobs? You know that old chestnut : "Have ten years worth of experience before you´ve even had the job"
I would be interested in the results of having the people working at the bls actually apply for jobs with various resumes. How many applications, and how long, does it take for a person not in the labor-force to be matched to a position?
It's a bit more complicated than calling people, but I think the data might be more valuable.
Is so strong! That friends been waiting months to find a job.
Companies take too long to hire even for easy jobs.
Well said.
Thanks.
I wonder how many of those overpaid tech workers were living paycheck to paycheck? It will be impossible to replace that paycheck.
The number of homeless people has skyrocketed. Thefts are also crazy high. Places are closing for these reasons, also AI has started replacing people. Credit cards are becoming harder to payoff. Wall Street is in for a big hit. Time is ticking.
🧐
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Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
Please will you be kind enough to share the details of the man that helped you?
Thank you for sharing. it was easy to find her, then I scheduled a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
Basically universal Basically income
Does dropout count people retiring? How does the labor department tell who is looking for job and who "drops out"? Is a House wife who takes care of her baby considered dropout?
The Labor Department calls people and asks them if they're employed and if not, asks if they're currently looking for a job. If the answer to both questions is no, they are considered to be out of the labor force.
No
They do surveys
@@blacklyfe5543 Surveys , they can put anything down and said people have jobs. Ha, ha what a Joke to cheat
How does one say they are actively looking for a job. I don't remember anyone asking me.
BLS calls a select group of people. You must not be in the group. They've never called me either. (Though, I'll say it's a much smaller group than one might imagine.)
BLS call their friends and Ai, they all said they have good jobs. End of survey. All GOOD
Most jobs r parttime, temp, contract. Fulltime permanent jobs with benefits are a minority.
Yeah I and a few of my friends have been laid off in the last year. It’s taking a long time to find jobs that match what I was getting paid at my last job. I don’t want to be underemployed I have student loans and rents are sky high!
Both houses & cars have become too expensive for most Americans these days, most especially for single people and/or single-income households. Even a lot of 2 income households can't afford them.
This issue has been exacerbated by the practices of insurance companies, which can have negative effects as well. Some insurance companies may contribute to rising prices by providing coverage that encourages risky lending and speculation. Additionally, certain insurance policies can be expensive, making it even more challenging for families to secure affordable properties. It's important for individuals tor consider diversifying their income streams, independent of government reliance, as a wise approach in the current situation.
What if you don't know how to trade any of these? I mean, see your point some people have the money and are willing to invest, the question is where to.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day invt decisions being guided by a invt-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using a invt-coach for over 8months+ and I've netted over 320k
Many people tend to lean towards spending money on things that don't generate income, like liabilities, rather than investing in assets that can bring in profits. It's important to understand the long-term benefits of investing in assets and making wise financial decisions.
The unemployment rate was compiled by Barbara Streisand (B.S.).
Inflation, GDP also BS, fake
What happened to the Shared Prosperity the US India Economic Partnership promised us?
This was a great explanation of the details of the labor report and a great reminder of the quote, “Lies, Damned Lies and statistics”. Labor market is a lot worse than sub 4% unemployment.
Hmmmm...
Most jobs I've found are ghost jobs or I need experience for a ENTRY level job. Pirating DVD's sounds like a good idea. (For legal reasons this is a joke.)
I'm not going back to work until I can afford it. Just commuting is absurdly expensive.
Commuting is quite pricey these days.
Labor Force participation may have some correlation with the impact of Long Covid on people's ability to work
That could definitely be one factor.
I’ve been looking for 3 years and the only jobs I can find are either low pay or only suitable for women or feminine men
Id love to watch this whole video but I have no time. I need to find a job.
People are not talking about the strong job market it's only the mainstream media.
Main stream just keep repeating Inflation 3%, Economy great, Employment is Full employment, Yellon said people do not know they have tons of money ,they did not know because they are very stupid.
You just need to try to find job right now and wont have a single doubt, that the labor market is not doing well
Rent too high, folks don't see the point in working tough jobs if there's no work life balance.
I mean what else could we do? Become a successful farmer? We don't even have the land to lay out a few seed. Being a beggar? Always remember those poor souls who struggle everyday to afford little food. Be a thankful person when you have a job
data driven has quickly lost its meaning - its only meant to narrate what corporations want the data to mean. Fed revision data has been funny to keep track of every month, its a macroeconomic circus.
Mothers who had to stay home with kids ,is the missing link
Dion for the WIN! #DATA 🥼📊
#winning
I think you got your numerator and denominator reversed at the 1:39 mark of the video.
I feel like these stats are like insurance company where disclaimer has 20 pagers.
It's just such a weird doom-and-gloom vibe. I hope at least that Mr. Rabouin is consistent and was making these same points in Jan. 2020.
Overall, 51% of traders think this year would favor stocks, mutual funds, and other equity-based investments, despite Treasury yields and other safer cash-like investments paying big. I’m looking for opportunities in the market that could fetch me $1m ahead of retirement by 2025
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I really need help, who is this investment-adviser that guides you
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Looking clean my guy✊🏿. Appreciate you and your team putting out that knowledge and making it clear for everyone 👍🏿
He's not your guy
Appreciate that
Thanks buddy
Tremendous channel
Thanks for watching.
You can see it easy
Thx Dion for pointing out this situation.
The problem: Government jobs, they are parasites and add nothing to the GDP. Service jobs in the leisure & hotel Industry are not that important, either. Thus, until STEM jobs excellerate fughetaboutit!
The history of the horse and carraigege who made it first
This was a very well organized and clearly presented video. Thank you.
I agree!
Thank you for watching!
Not when one person has to hold multiple jobs
Sounds like China except this is the USA
Deep dives. Ty!
The WSJ actually doing research? haha!🤣
If we could look at our economy the way we look at ecosystems. I think we could greatly improve our quality of life. If the food chain loses its smallest aspects, the entire ecosystem can collapse. Similar with our society/economy, it needs the lowest members of the economy to keep society functioning. So if we at least provide support for individuals dealing with poverty, so they can live life at the most basic level of standards & not go homeless. That support would go towards landlords, insurance companies, different aspects of the economy. Wouldn't that be better compared to letting all these working people become homeless and not able to live at the most basic level & play a role in our society/economy even tho they work but can't afford the ridiculous cost of living requirements nowadays... I hope we can find a way to improve things. Like Finland has done and is continuing to do. It would improve the ecosystem of our society. It's worth a shot because how things are right now definitely aren't getting any better anytime soon.
I'm curious if there is a 35-year-old crisis in US? If yes, what is the situation? For example, how do your companies view job seekers over 35 years old? and Will it be difficult for ordinary labours who are 40 years old to find a new job after losing their jobs? Will the company accept the resume of a 40-year-old worker? I am from China.
shouldn't the unemployment rate formula be flipped since it should be less than 1 not greater than 1
There are a lot more employed people than unemployed people.
How much of what we are told is real information or screwed propaganda ?
Send this to President Biden!
unemployment rate is a single variable to be interpreted however you want depending on what other variables you use or omit.
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Everyone in the caribben prefer to but usa things than china .things
I thought maybe these are just baby boomers retiring in larger numbers (and their high Avg. hours and Wage relative to Avg.).. but then he mentioned 25-54.
The devil is in the details.
@@DionRabouinWSJ Like the detail I mentioned above per the chart you show at 1:55: that prime age labor force rate in December was 83.2%. (Oh, and it ticked up in Jan. to 83.3%) Except for the prior eight months (Apr.-Nov. 2023), that's the highest it had been since two brief spikes in Jan. 2007 (83.4%) and Jan. 2008 (83.3%). It was not this high in the years leading up to the pandemic: it peaked in Jan. 2020 at 83.1%. The last time it was consistently above 83% was 1989-2003, peaking in Jan. 1999 at 84.6%. (And it remained above 83% during both the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions.) And of course, it had never been that high before. (In the 1950s-60s, including the last time we had unemployment this low for this long in 1967-70, it was between 60% and 70%; it went up as women entered the workforce.)
@@DionRabouinWSJ In six months, maybe the signs you point to here will have borne unfortunate fruit, in which case, of course, kudos to you for pointing them out. But if not, I hope you'll do a video at that time explaining why these signs didn't portend trouble.
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You would wish he actually provided a citation for his discussion. WHERE DO YOU GET THE REPORTS THAT SHOW THIS, OR IS IT ALL MADE UP?
Did you not watch the video?
Thank you, Dion Rabouin and The Wall Street Journal. For seeing me, and the millions like me.
This is real. The data is plain to see. Yet nobody's reporting it. I hope you'll both continue leading by further telling this story.
As the Fed has aggressively jacked up rates over a 16-month stretch to a 22-year high, companies are responding with seismic layoffs. Mine included. I've been unemployed for 13 months (and counting). I've never worked harder in my life. But there are no jobs. It's worse than the Recession. I'm weary. And I'm far from alone.
Powell said raising rates will "bring some pain". That undersells it. But, I'm guessing he's still able to provide for his family. There but for the grace of God go I.
"Yet nobody's reporting it." Everything reported in this video (which look, I'm being a bit tough, but it's fine as long as you realize it's not the whole story) is either a stat that anyone can look up, OR the opinion of Liz Ann Sonders, who to be sure is smart and successful, but maybe Mr. Rabouin could have asked her for times when she felt more bullish than she appears to feel now. And then we could go look at those times, and I'll bet we'll find that fewer people were working then. There's a reason that time and again over the past few years, every time a good jobs report came out, the stock market dipped.
Financial planning is like navigation. If you know where you are and where you want to go, navigation isn't such a great problem. It's when you don't know the two points that it's difficult
Now with the recent economy, To get Financial FREEDOM you have to be making money while you're asleep.
An increase in the influence of women in public life has often been associated with national decline. The later Romans complained that, although Rome ruled the world, women ruled Rome. In the tenth century, a similar tendency was observable in the Arab Empire, the women demanding admission to the professions hitherto monopolised by men. ‘What,’ wrote the contemporary historian, Ibn Bessam, ‘have the professions of clerk, tax-collector or preacher to do with women? These occupations have always been limited to men alone.’ Many women practised law, while others obtained posts as university professors. There was an agitation for the appointment of female judges, which, however, does not appear to have succeeded.
Soon after this period, government and public order collapsed, and foreign invaders overran the country. The resulting increase in confusion and violence made it unsafe for women to move unescorted in the streets, with the result that this feminist movement collapsed.
Just say ur an incel. Smh
1. Prime age labor force: the chart at 1:55 shows that in Dec. 2023, it was still higher than it was at its previous peak in late 2019/early 2020.
2.a. Revisions: you should have waited a day, because December was just revised up from 216,000 to 333,000. As for comparisons to 2007-2008:
2.b.i. The lowest unemployment rate during that period was 4.4% in March & May 2007. We've been below 4% for 24 straight months now.
2.b.ii. The unemployment rate rose from that point, up to 5.4% by May 2008. So you didn't need to look at revisions to see a trend.
3. If declining weekly hours signal an impending recession, then per the chart at 3:22, it's been impending for nearly three years.
4.a. Unemployment claims: people who leave/lose their job have sufficient funds to be picky and take their time finding new work.
4.b. And a recent survey found that most people say they're confident they can find new work if they lose their jobs.
4.c. Would Florida be changing it slaws to allow teenagers to work 40 hours in a school week if companies could get prime age employees?
*its laws
Does any of this even matter? This all seem like religion. Other countries measure unemployment close to how the u6 is measured.
Unless disabled, how do you calculate not looking for a job? Would a 27 year old living with their parents playing video games all day be considered unemployed or dropped out of the labor force?
They would be considered out of the labor force. They determine this by literally calling a group of people who have said they aren't working every month and asking, "Are you looking for a job?" If the answer is no, they are out of the labor force. if the answer is yes, they are unemployed.
The accuracy of those phone surveys is questionable, then. My wife said she would find a job for a year but didn't send out a single résumé for a long time.
@@yanaya713 So far, none of my friends get calls, I have not get calls ever. Government workers will not call, they just put down what the boss tell them the number. Unemployment the lower the better , so is Inflation, otherwise you get Fired.
go back to school if. you need more information
Everybody is talking about Bitcoin and people buying Bitcoin right now.
WHO is buying that at a cost of $56,000 currently? Who?
To many illegal immigrants causing falling wages.
Wages are actually rising.
@@DionRabouinWSJIf it's not keeping up with inflation then you mind as well say it's falling.
Bidenomic disaster 😊.
Not a Yank, Singaporean, marked foeman of the FRBNY. Nope, it's the responsibility of Chair Alan Greenspan, Chair Ben Barnanke, Chair Janet Yellen, Chair Jay Powell, Prez Bush Junior, Prez Barack Obama, Prez Trump + Rona & the one that added most fuel when there was no Rona excuse was Prez Biden. All these ppl are the responsible parties, Biden has loads of blame, but he is most definitely not responsible for all that load of issues. Then there is the House & Senate, which also share some responsibility for the problems the Beltway lobbyists & the ppl + coroprates + other tax eaters + 1% & above class that fund them.
So Biden is somewhat responsible but only for a tenny bit of the economic issues. If your talking about him endangering the rule of law & threatening the consitutionally protected rights of American citizens it a different story. The road is starting to run out & the fisical deficit can, can't be kicked further soon, sometime in the 2024 to 2027 time frame, when all the chickens may well come back to roost. As the Clinton Presidential Campaign put it in 1992, " It's the Economy Stupid." 😊
Covid doesn't have a political affiliation...