Oh great, just as I save up $75k in my emergency fund, the market decides to go on a $6.4T rollercoaster ride. Perfect timing! 😅 I guess my dreams of early retirement are going to take a little detour. Any tips on where to even begin investing without losing it all?
Hey, at least you’re ahead of the game with that $75k cushion! But honestly, market drops are just part of the game. I’ve seen these dips before, and if you play it smart, you could come out stronger. If you’re really unsure, though, a good financial advisor made a difference for me. Maybe worth a thought!
"I’m in the same boat...finally got some money saved up, but now I’m stuck wondering if I need an advisor or just try going solo. Where do you even find a legit advisor? I don’t want to end up with someone who just pushes me into expensive funds."
There are a handful of CFAs. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘Linda Aretha Reeves’ for some years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s known in her field, look her up.
"Watched Linda Aretha on Bloomberg finance summit 4 years ago and her presentation was fantastic! If you want someone who knows their stuff, she’s a solid choice."
Massive respect for not only avoiding the word "crash" in your title but also not making it all caps with a shocked thumbnail of your face up in flames.
Stocks in the short term look more likely to move downward. I Just inherited $500k which I Look forward to invest. what stocks should I look into as a newbie to safely grow my money?
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
The issue is people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt. Ideally, advisors are reps for investing jobs, and at first-hand encounter, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since 2020 just after the pandemic to date.
Svetlana Sarkisian Chowdhury a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Optimism/ pessimism isn't treated equally. People call for a crash and when it doesn't happen, they aren't held accountable. But if you say the bulls are running, you'll be ridiculed if it tumbles.
One of my lecturers at Uni told us to “never believe economists - as long as they’re talking about the future” (the man is also an economist, ofc). That kind of explains the situation. Despite a wealth of knowledge from the past, having somewhat decent and established indicators, recency bias and the opiniated nature of the field still makes everything unpredictable. Staying calm and focusing on the fundamentals is honestly the best advice one can give. Thank you!
Economics is called "The Dismal Science" for very good reason. Behavioral economics (a recent addition to economic models) is a refreshing more successful change, but it doesn't help forecast the stock market.
But isnt the whole stock market or the economy totally based on beliefs and predictions ? Everyone whos selling or buying has a reason to do so (thats a fundamental isnt it ?) which can be predicted and smart people mostly always benefit from it. Whats your opinion on it ? Well, staying calm and focusing on the fundamentals as you said, will always be the best advice !
Unfortunately, People crave certainty and simplicity far more than accuracy. Combine that with fear and you have a receipt for a scam (or maybe a skilled politician). At a minimum you have their attention and that is the currency of the internet. When someone says "I am not sure... a reasonable amount of evidence seems to be generally pointing in this direction. So maybe" That is someone I want to listen to. It is the most important sign that this person at least understands what they don't know, and thus has likely done the most homework. I love your content man. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
I agree. It has always been through tough/hard times that "skilled people" rise to the top and bring out the worst scandals in history. The best advice is to stay calm and stick to the fundamentals and that was the message f this video.
Amazing video, A friend of mine referred me to a financial adviser sometime ago and we got to talking about investment and money. I started investing with $150k and in the first 2 months, my portfolio was reading $274,800. Crazy right!, I decided to reinvest my profit and get more interesting. For over a year we have been working together making consistent profit just bought my second home 2 weeks ago and care for my family.
Hi. I’ve been forced to find additional sources of income as I got retrenched. I barely have time to continue trading and watch my investments since I had my second child. Do you think I should take a break for a while from the market and focus on other things or return whenever I have free time or is it a continuous process? Thanks
@@Lourd-Bab However, if you do not have access to a professional like Clementina Abate Russo, quitting your job to focus on trading may not be the best approach. It is important to consider all options and seek guidance from reliable sources before making any major decisions. Consulting with an AI or using automated trading systems can also be helpful in managing investments while balancing other commitments.
I just have this idea of half of Finance CZcams, with its penchant for Shocked CZcams Face(TM) sending awful comments to this guy. "Stop being so calm and rational, it's impacting our business model."
I barely noticed the market going down. I like recessions since it allows me to buy things at a discount; Markets go up, markets go down. Been working full time for over 30 years, seen all kinds of markets in those times. Focus on the fundamentals: live within your means, don't be over leveraged, and have a large emergency fund.
@@John_winston Live within your means, don't borrow heavily and have a large emergency fund. Preferably 3-6 months of your critical spending as an emergency fund.
I am a long time critic of utuber in this business. But it is refreshing to actually hear someone say, we don't actually know what caused it ....thank you
When getting my masters in Data Science, one of the big case studies we work on for data error is the Jobs report. The jobs report is almost never accurate since its a projection and not actual numbers. When looking at the report a year in the past you see how jobs numbers are drastically different than what's reported. So it's a bit concerning our entire economy can go into an emotional recession from fake numbers 😅
One thing I have learned about the stock market is that it is very very manipulated. It will not let investors know when it go up or down. It will always do the opposite what investors think it might do... If investors can figure out what the market is going to do, companies will go bankruptcy.... So I don't waste my time and energy to bother what the market is going to do...... for me .. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 532k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Milton Harper's, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
If the market has taught me anything, it's that it always recovers, but I can't seem to focus on the long run, when major factors like my retirement and my reserve are wreaking havoc on inflation. I require a solid data trajectory and solution as soon as possible.
Milton's analyses delve deeper than surface-level trends, encompassing technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis to offer a comprehensive view of the market.
Give it time. Some of the greatest historical bull runs in stonks have happened during overall bear markets. Stocks often rip higher after massive sell offs.. but they are death throes, not a real recovery.
You are correct! S&P 500 is up 2000 points from Aug 2020. It has NEVER been this high before in HISTORY. 2000 point growth since 2020. Almost the fastest growth in history. Some economists just live in a bubble.
It feels like skepticism over AI is getting more and more common. I see more and more AI skepticism. And it feels like a big % of the overall market was drivin by an AI hype battle. AI has absolutely made my life worse (useless call centers, useless chatbots, 80% of my Facebook feed is now AI generated sponsored content, 80% of google and big search results seem to be AI generated and wrong.) But it has yet to make my life easier. I watched a big salespitch on a new LLM product lately. It was just an search engine that linked to their existing forms. Which, are great, but it was just a plain language search engine, which is both old tech and meh. Most of the productivity gains I have seen are people being carefully trained on how to use it - and then it was minimal, and costs as much as hiring a human.
It's yet another tech bubble - companies are so short sighted that they drop billions on the next "big thing", only to find a lot of it was just techbros making things up to fleece money from greedy VCs. First it was big data, then blockchain/metaverse, and now AI. AI is sure as hell more useful than those others, but it's far less AIG and far more world's largest predictive keyboard...
I know why the stock market crashed. Its because I decided to invest my full investment goals the end of July, instead of spacing it out over the whole year.
Richard is the best financial CZcamsr on the internet. His explanations are so clear and straight to the point it's hard to not understand them. Thank you for this analysis and all your videos!
This is my first time going through a major dip after I started my IRA. It's alarming to see several hundred dollars wiped out overnight but what'a the first rule of any catastrophe? Don't panic. I've got my towel.
Just wanted to say thanks for the content you provide! There are so many bad finance channels out there, with ridiculous click baity thumbnails & titles, non-stop exaggerated doom, etc. It's good to have some level headed analysis, that's both well thought out and delivered!
With regards to Intel, I think they're gonna be in hot water for a while. Especially considering I don't think their 13th gen and 14th gen reliability concerns are being reflected in their share price. While I don't think this will ruin them, I do think it will continue to hurt them.
You're one of only a handful of solid, good, trustworthy financial CZcamsrs I've found. Respect for keeping it real and useful and honest and credible.
Hello Richard, my opinion was that the Sahm's indicator thingie needs many more years to prove itself (since it was just made in 2019). Also, it's never discussed in the CFA curriculum at all, while mainstream media is shilling that indicator all week. Smh. 🤦♂
I don't comment often, but I do listen often. I just wanted you to know that I really appreciate your easy to understand and follow, videos. Interesting and informative. 👍
Could you make a video explaining the Plaza Accord? I have read that it might be the reason why the Japanese economy went into a recession back in the early 1990s and why it has not been able to recovered.
I lucked out since this let me buy a bunch of stocks I was looking at which then had a sharp decrease in price so I got to buy more than I was budgeting for. And then the next day bounced back a bit. rare case where I managed to time the market.
The sell-off is being triggered because of one simple fact: a significant portion of the capital which is invested in the US stock market (& US FX/currency) has its foundation built-upon QUICKSAND. Meaning, much of the capital originates from margins, currency loans, and other dubious/speculative locations. Before this pull-back, the S&P 500 was closing-in on a 100% gain, in FIVE YEARS. Consequently, given historical context & data, you can assume a SIGNIFICANT PORTION of that 100% is from capital which is VERY "weak." Imagine, if you will, the stock market is a skyscraper you are building. And, to save money while building it, you decide that every 10th floor will have wooden (skeletal) beams, instead of reenforced steel. Sure, you will save $, and after construction, the skyscraper will stand proud! However, this structure is now INCREDIBLY VULNERABLE to unforeseen/unplanned events, such as earthquakes. Japan + Jobs report was a 3.0 on the Richter scale. Not enough to DESTROY the building, but, people have heard loud "cracking" noises from those wooden beams...
Don't forget the next part "Hello, I am an engineer, I am willing to certify this building is sound. I just need 100million$. If the building fails, you can blame me, but I don't care because I'm rich AF".
Hey Richard @ThePlainBagel ! Could you do some videos or even shorts on some of the indicators used to determine the health of the economy? Before this video, I didn't know the VIX index and Sahm's rule. I have not gotten a good grasp on macroeconomics yet and thought you could help! Good video as always.
With intel, it was never part of the "AI boom", its management has been failing to innovate for years. So it should have cut dividend and emplyees like a year ago. its has nothing to do with the over all cutting of employees in the tech sector due to efficiency optimization.
Long term investors don’t get emotional. Rather than share price driven, it’s all about tracking your companies’ quarterly results and their growth prospects. Pullback is normal and “healthy”. If you have been doing this for more than 5 years and assuming you are holding the right stocks, you probably know their fundamentals inside out. Let compound growth continue. No fear.
I mean, we shouldn't be surprised. Everything was inflated in price and we needed the correction to avoid even more damage. If anything its healthy and nothing wrong with buying on dip (just be safe out there and wish you all well :D)
We don't even know what initiated the unraveling of the internet bubble in 2000. And we've had 24 years to study that bubble. However in the long run valuations do matter, just not in the short (or even medium) term.
Lol. We know exactly what happened. Japan saw a 7% dump. That lead to futures taking a dump, which lead to risk desks forcing liquidations on firms to meet their risk requirements. It was a positive feedback loop that went through the night and into the next day. Right now, you still have options out there at higher costs than firms are willing to buy, while keeping this risk on their books (i.e. it's costing more to deload risk as a result of the increased vega). This will all likely be mostly over as of this next Monday once expirations push values closer to zero. If you're looking at what happened last week and this week in macro terms, you're missing the big picture. It started with risk desks forcing liquidations which resulted in the market taking a collective sh!t with their over-leveraged positions.
Recessions always start about 6 months to a year before the indicators force the central banks to declare them. We've been in one since late last year.
Thank you for the explanation. I've only just started investing substantially (by my standards) in the stock market, mainly through xGRO ETFs. I'm still checking on an almost daily basis, which I know I shouldn't do. I'm in my 40s and this is going to be my retirement, so it's hard to not be affected by such drops in the market. Ultimately, I'm now resigned to keep investing my regular amount each month, irrespective of the condition of the market. But I can't lie that it isn't fun when your future 100% relies on the markets performing as they have done, long-term.
Why does everyone say interests rates are very high? They're normal right now? Is everyone just 20 year olds who think near-0% interest rates is normal?
This was a spooky few weeks. I just got back into stocks last month, because I wanted to get in on QQQY. So this Correction, plus the Defiance Stock Split, caused a massive dip that had me lose 20% at one point in my portfolio. I also Margin everything I can, too, I have a goal to rush to next year (don't worry, I don't plan on quitting my day job). It's sad so many others lost their spine, especially just before the reverse stock split.
Personally I see it as a good time to invest in good companies, some of my favorite companies have been hit by this correction so I’m intrigued to see how it pans out.
For those looking at inflation and consumer spending… most schools cut financial education programs and our younger (20-40s) earners are dumb as shit and keep buying 80k cars on 8yr loans at 6%… Until we buck that trend or our relentless credit spending, the inflation and consumer spending metrics ain’t going down. Lol
I don't even know where the stock market is headed to right now. my portfolio of around 200k is not increasing more than 5% and people are predicting a crash.
Meanwhile in Australia the ASX200 only had a 2.08%drop over the last 5 days, down 1.42% in the last month and still up 2.14% over the last 6 months at the time of typing this.
Shouldn't there be flames in the thumbnail??
And panicking expressions
Yes, every single time.
Plus an exaggerated title, Fed tanks all the Stock Markets, click for more details.
@@Lonovavirbrought to you by cryptozoo
Shouldn't you be training for the box match instead of lurking in the comments, Patrick?
Oh great, just as I save up $75k in my emergency fund, the market decides to go on a $6.4T rollercoaster ride. Perfect timing! 😅 I guess my dreams of early retirement are going to take a little detour. Any tips on where to even begin investing without losing it all?
Hey, at least you’re ahead of the game with that $75k cushion! But honestly, market drops are just part of the game. I’ve seen these dips before, and if you play it smart, you could come out stronger. If you’re really unsure, though, a good financial advisor made a difference for me. Maybe worth a thought!
"I’m in the same boat...finally got some money saved up, but now I’m stuck wondering if I need an advisor or just try going solo. Where do you even find a legit advisor? I don’t want to end up with someone who just pushes me into expensive funds."
There are a handful of CFAs. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘Linda Aretha Reeves’ for some years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s known in her field, look her up.
Just looked up Linda Aretha Reeves-she seems like exactly what I needed to get on track with my investments. Appreciate the recommendation!
"Watched Linda Aretha on Bloomberg finance summit 4 years ago and her presentation was fantastic! If you want someone who knows their stuff, she’s a solid choice."
Massive respect for not only avoiding the word "crash" in your title but also not making it all caps with a shocked thumbnail of your face up in flames.
This comment is too real.
He's not Mr. Beast. He knows his target audience. Adults with money Sto invest so no need to clickbait.
nah i didn’t even notice that lol, i see plain bagel i click. but now u pointed it out, thats actually dope asf
Crash is in the title of the first segment of the video...
Yh not like some people. Cough cough** graham
"Held off until the end of the video because, I need views". Lolz, thank you for your very calm an honest breakdown of recent events.
His dry sense of humor keeps me coming back 😂
@@Redjman66 what caught my attention was that, bro, your account is 18 years old!!!
Stocks in the short term look more likely to move downward. I Just inherited $500k which I Look forward to invest. what stocks should I look into as a newbie to safely grow my money?
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
The issue is people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt. Ideally, advisors are reps for investing jobs, and at first-hand encounter, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since 2020 just after the pandemic to date.
Glad to have stumbled on this comment, Please who is the consultant that assist you and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
Svetlana Sarkisian Chowdhury a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Calm, collected and realistic. That's why we are here.
That, PLUS informed, and not dealing hype and misinformation.
Sadly enough, the sum total of THAT on CZcams re the stock market is quite rare.
People were saying it was a bear trap, but If you zoom out far enough it was always a bear trap.
If you live long enough even the Great Depression is a bear trap.
in the long run we are all dead.
Being a bear is a trap
If you zoom WAY far out you'd realize speculators are wasting time
@@michaelsmith4904 so in the long run volatility goes to 0 😂
I don't like when line go down. Make line go up. Line going up pretty.
Agree
Literally the philosophy of our entire economic model these days
I dunno man, when line go down it's BOGOF time!
Line go up means either stonks are more valuable or money is less valuable. Cue the printers, line go up!
If line go down just go short, it's that easy
Optimism/ pessimism isn't treated equally. People call for a crash and when it doesn't happen, they aren't held accountable. But if you say the bulls are running, you'll be ridiculed if it tumbles.
Personally I ridicule anyone reading economic tea leaves and claiming they’ve seen the future.
One of the last finance youTuber left… keep it up.
I saw graham Stephen and meet Kevin make a video abt this but I just waited for the plain bagel cus I don’t trust them anymore
Humphrey is good, but at the end of the day you watch enough of these youtubers you already know the gist. Save money, dollar cost average into an ETF
Believe in suit guy Patrick Boyle
@@coolman000099 snake oil salesmen
@@wang22whats etf?
One of my lecturers at Uni told us to “never believe economists - as long as they’re talking about the future” (the man is also an economist, ofc). That kind of explains the situation. Despite a wealth of knowledge from the past, having somewhat decent and established indicators, recency bias and the opiniated nature of the field still makes everything unpredictable. Staying calm and focusing on the fundamentals is honestly the best advice one can give. Thank you!
Economics is called "The Dismal Science" for very good reason. Behavioral economics (a recent addition to economic models) is a refreshing more successful change, but it doesn't help forecast the stock market.
But isnt the whole stock market or the economy totally based on beliefs and predictions ?
Everyone whos selling or buying has a reason to do so (thats a fundamental isnt it ?) which can be predicted and smart people mostly always benefit from it. Whats your opinion on it ? Well, staying calm and focusing on the fundamentals as you said, will always be the best advice !
This is the content I came here to listen to ❤. “Can stocks drop lower? Idk I guess 🤷♀️ “
Unfortunately, People crave certainty and simplicity far more than accuracy. Combine that with fear and you have a receipt for a scam (or maybe a skilled politician). At a minimum you have their attention and that is the currency of the internet. When someone says "I am not sure... a reasonable amount of evidence seems to be generally pointing in this direction. So maybe" That is someone I want to listen to. It is the most important sign that this person at least understands what they don't know, and thus has likely done the most homework. I love your content man. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
I agree. It has always been through tough/hard times that "skilled people" rise to the top and bring out the worst scandals in history.
The best advice is to stay calm and stick to the fundamentals and that was the message f this video.
Every other CZcamsr: OMG THIS COULD BE THE END! SELL YOUR KIDNEYS NOW!
Bagel: 🤷🏻
It looks like there is someone shrugging their shoulders in the bagel logo
Amazing video, A friend of mine referred me to a financial adviser sometime ago and we got to talking about investment and money. I started investing with $150k and in the first 2 months, my portfolio was reading $274,800. Crazy right!, I decided to reinvest my profit and get more interesting. For over a year we have been working together making consistent profit just bought my second home 2 weeks ago and care for my family.
Hi. I’ve been forced to find additional sources of income as I got retrenched. I barely have time to continue trading and watch my investments since I had my second child. Do you think I should take a break for a while from the market and focus on other things or return whenever I have free time or is it a continuous process? Thanks
@@Lourd-Bab However, if you do not have access to a professional like Clementina Abate Russo, quitting your job to focus on trading may not be the best approach. It is important to consider all options and seek guidance from reliable sources before making any major decisions. Consulting with an AI or using automated trading systems can also be helpful in managing investments while balancing other commitments.
@@Bestjudy001 Oh please I’d love that. Thanks!
@@Lourd-Bab Clementina Abate Russo is her name
Lookup with her name on the webpage.
I just have this idea of half of Finance CZcams, with its penchant for Shocked CZcams Face(TM) sending awful comments to this guy. "Stop being so calm and rational, it's impacting our business model."
he’s too damned Canadian
Your model business is upending our business model!
@@SigFigNewton You Sir win the Internet!
Thank you for honest information. The sensationalism is getting exhausting
I now automatically dismiss financial advice from Twitter
You should always be skeptical of any senstionalist information. That's not to say it's all false, but you should definitely cross-check wild claims.
Finally, some real finance talk
Where have you been til now?
It was a long weekend in Canada so I was with family, sorry 🙏
@@ThePlainBagelRichard, the consummate Canadian. Apologizing for the unnecessary. We love you :)
@@ThePlainBagel then, sorry for being annoying and for making you apologise 😭
@@Omer1996E.C @ThePlainBagel sorry that the both of you had to feel sorry
Haha no sweat thanks for watching 😁
I barely noticed the market going down. I like recessions since it allows me to buy things at a discount; Markets go up, markets go down. Been working full time for over 30 years, seen all kinds of markets in those times. Focus on the fundamentals: live within your means, don't be over leveraged, and have a large emergency fund.
For 30 years you've been living those fundamentals? How does it goes or work?
@@John_winston Live within your means, don't borrow heavily and have a large emergency fund. Preferably 3-6 months of your critical spending as an emergency fund.
@@fuzzy3440 and for 30 years, could you say it worked?
@@fuzzy3440how are you supposed to make bank with that emergency fund sitting idle?
@@tomr6955 It's invested conservatively, mainly etf's and money market funds. Don't need it to make bank, I make much more than I spend.
I am a long time critic of utuber in this business. But it is refreshing to actually hear someone say, we don't actually know what caused it ....thank you
“Debt to GDP is relatively high” is the understatement of this millennia.
Shit is going to be in history books 1000 years from now...
When getting my masters in Data Science, one of the big case studies we work on for data error is the Jobs report. The jobs report is almost never accurate since its a projection and not actual numbers. When looking at the report a year in the past you see how jobs numbers are drastically different than what's reported.
So it's a bit concerning our entire economy can go into an emotional recession from fake numbers 😅
where do you see the actual employment numbers?
One thing I have learned about the stock market is that it is very very manipulated. It will not let investors know when it go up or down. It will always do the opposite what investors think it might do... If investors can figure out what the market is going to do, companies will go bankruptcy.... So I don't waste my time and energy to bother what the market is going to do...... for me .. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 532k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Milton Harper's, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
MiIton Harper program is widely available online..
The market has gone berserk! whether you're a newbie or a veteran trader, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.
If the market has taught me anything, it's that it always recovers, but I can't seem to focus on the long run, when major factors like my retirement and my reserve are wreaking havoc on inflation. I require a solid data trajectory and solution as soon as possible.
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Milton’s trade signal service.
Milton's analyses delve deeper than surface-level trends, encompassing technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis to offer a comprehensive view of the market.
not stonks
stonkn't
*_To Challenger Deep!!!_*
Give it time. Some of the greatest historical bull runs in stonks have happened during overall bear markets. Stocks often rip higher after massive sell offs.. but they are death throes, not a real recovery.
sharts
@@jonathantaylor6926stocks often rip higher after sell offs.
No kidding..
You are correct! S&P 500 is up 2000 points from Aug 2020. It has NEVER been this high before in HISTORY. 2000 point growth since 2020. Almost the fastest growth in history. Some economists just live in a bubble.
We all live in a bubble my guy. Housing bubble, market bubble, not a recession bubble.
2000 points since 2020? It sounds like we all live in a bubble, dude
Given the way the market grows over time, it spends a LOT of time at new highs, actually, real world. Not every year, but a LOT overall.
Growth isn't that big compared to inflation though.
It feels like skepticism over AI is getting more and more common. I see more and more AI skepticism. And it feels like a big % of the overall market was drivin by an AI hype battle.
AI has absolutely made my life worse (useless call centers, useless chatbots, 80% of my Facebook feed is now AI generated sponsored content, 80% of google and big search results seem to be AI generated and wrong.) But it has yet to make my life easier.
I watched a big salespitch on a new LLM product lately. It was just an search engine that linked to their existing forms. Which, are great, but it was just a plain language search engine, which is both old tech and meh.
Most of the productivity gains I have seen are people being carefully trained on how to use it - and then it was minimal, and costs as much as hiring a human.
AI is real and not going anywhere, I promise.
It's yet another tech bubble - companies are so short sighted that they drop billions on the next "big thing", only to find a lot of it was just techbros making things up to fleece money from greedy VCs. First it was big data, then blockchain/metaverse, and now AI. AI is sure as hell more useful than those others, but it's far less AIG and far more world's largest predictive keyboard...
I know why the stock market crashed. Its because I decided to invest my full investment goals the end of July, instead of spacing it out over the whole year.
So it was your fault :D - But dont worry it will go back up like a rocket now because I sold today :D
You did the right thing, lump sum investing is superior, and time will tell if you were just unlucky.
thanks for your donation to the great good of banks, they wouldn't care shit about this tbh.
I bought the dip. Staying put for at least the next 10 years.
Same here 😊
Richard is the best financial CZcamsr on the internet. His explanations are so clear and straight to the point it's hard to not understand them. Thank you for this analysis and all your videos!
I'm not normally on this side of CZcams but this was well explained and interesting. I learned a lot.
Richard, you're the voice of reason we all need
This is my first time going through a major dip after I started my IRA.
It's alarming to see several hundred dollars wiped out overnight but what'a the first rule of any catastrophe? Don't panic.
I've got my towel.
I like the line going down because as I auto-contribute to my 401k, in the long run I will make more money
Just wanted to say thanks for the content you provide!
There are so many bad finance channels out there, with ridiculous click baity thumbnails & titles, non-stop exaggerated doom, etc. It's good to have some level headed analysis, that's both well thought out and delivered!
With regards to Intel, I think they're gonna be in hot water for a while. Especially considering I don't think their 13th gen and 14th gen reliability concerns are being reflected in their share price. While I don't think this will ruin them, I do think it will continue to hurt them.
You're one of only a handful of solid, good, trustworthy financial CZcamsrs I've found.
Respect for keeping it real and useful and honest and credible.
I can’t think of a more eloquent way of saying this. I really like this guy.
“Tune out the noise” and “stay the course.” - Jack Bogle
From showing all the charts from public sources I learned a lot about economic data and improved my financial literacy. Much appreciated!
Sorry but I need over-the-top, doomsday level breakdowns for me to stay engaged. This channel is too rational and level-headed.
Hello Richard, my opinion was that the Sahm's indicator thingie needs many more years to prove itself (since it was just made in 2019). Also, it's never discussed in the CFA curriculum at all, while mainstream media is shilling that indicator all week. Smh. 🤦♂
I don't comment often, but I do listen often. I just wanted you to know that I really appreciate your easy to understand and follow, videos. Interesting and informative. 👍
Out off all the videos and podcasts I’ve watch/listened to this was the most concise and broken down in an edible form. Thank you
You're the goat man, I knew you we're going to have a video on this explained like no one else
Could you make a video explaining the Plaza Accord? I have read that it might be the reason why the Japanese economy went into a recession back in the early 1990s and why it has not been able to recovered.
Thanks plain bagel, when things get crazy it's so so helpful to hear the news from you
I'm a fan of your calm approach and dry sense of humor
Tldr: no clue!
I also have no clue why analysts even earn money 🙄
Totally agree. Stock market always overreact to the latest news. Especially if it's a bad one.
Oh my goodness. Thank you so much. I've tried all the strategies but this is takes the cake! You really don't understand how much this strategy helps!
The “thanks for watching” was cut right into an ad about investing uncertainty, is such comedic timing. I see you Google ads, I see you
We will eventually call every down-tick a crash.
It rose so fast so quickly. If it drops 20% from its 52 high, I don’t see why that is a problem.
Everything is overvalued PEs are so high its hard find companies with good balance sheets and at undervalued price.
I lucked out since this let me buy a bunch of stocks I was looking at which then had a sharp decrease in price so I got to buy more than I was budgeting for.
And then the next day bounced back a bit.
rare case where I managed to time the market.
Good for you. I tried that trick and it failed, I stick to ETFs now.
@@Lonovavir just get SPY and that's pretty much all you need to know
The sell-off is being triggered because of one simple fact: a significant portion of the capital which is invested in the US stock market (& US FX/currency) has its foundation built-upon QUICKSAND. Meaning, much of the capital originates from margins, currency loans, and other dubious/speculative locations.
Before this pull-back, the S&P 500 was closing-in on a 100% gain, in FIVE YEARS.
Consequently, given historical context & data, you can assume a SIGNIFICANT PORTION of that 100% is from capital which is VERY "weak."
Imagine, if you will, the stock market is a skyscraper you are building. And, to save money while building it, you decide that every 10th floor will have wooden (skeletal) beams, instead of reenforced steel.
Sure, you will save $, and after construction, the skyscraper will stand proud!
However, this structure is now INCREDIBLY VULNERABLE to unforeseen/unplanned events, such as earthquakes.
Japan + Jobs report was a 3.0 on the Richter scale. Not enough to DESTROY the building, but, people have heard loud "cracking" noises from those wooden beams...
Don't forget the next part
"Hello, I am an engineer, I am willing to certify this building is sound. I just need 100million$. If the building fails, you can blame me, but I don't care because I'm rich AF".
@@donm2067 HAHAH, for sure!
Hey Richard @ThePlainBagel ! Could you do some videos or even shorts on some of the indicators used to determine the health of the economy? Before this video, I didn't know the VIX index and Sahm's rule. I have not gotten a good grasp on macroeconomics yet and thought you could help! Good video as always.
I second this idea! @theplainbagel
This channel is the best.
My portfolio is up 1.63% for the day, down 2.09% for the week and up 2.28% for the month. Up 11.47% YTD.
On the other hand, on Thursday there was a serious recovery as buyers took advance of market price decreases.
With intel, it was never part of the "AI boom", its management has been failing to innovate for years. So it should have cut dividend and emplyees like a year ago. its has nothing to do with the over all cutting of employees in the tech sector due to efficiency optimization.
Long term investors don’t get emotional. Rather than share price driven, it’s all about tracking your companies’ quarterly results and their growth prospects. Pullback is normal and “healthy”. If you have been doing this for more than 5 years and assuming you are holding the right stocks, you probably know their fundamentals inside out. Let compound growth continue. No fear.
I mean, we shouldn't be surprised. Everything was inflated in price and we needed the correction to avoid even more damage. If anything its healthy and nothing wrong with buying on dip (just be safe out there and wish you all well :D)
We don't even know what initiated the unraveling of the internet bubble in 2000. And we've had 24 years to study that bubble. However in the long run valuations do matter, just not in the short (or even medium) term.
This is exciting. Now I can purchase more stocks at reasonable prices.
I didn't know about the Carry Trades, so thanks for that info 👍👍
The market still being strong yoy is such an important point. Its really just a taper off because of how insane it grew in 2023
In times like these, limit orders are awesome.
Probably went something like this: "he's selling? Sell!" They're selling? Sell! He's buying? Buy! They're buying? Buy!
Best channel for financial updates, keep going (from italy🇮🇹)
Thanks for this video! I was frustrated because I didn't understand what the issue was.
Great summary and level-headed advice as always!
Don’t make us wait this long for your input again!! We need someone sensible to calm us down (you)
He is as full time accountant plus CZcams. Respect that please.
This is the commentary I was waiting for! Other youtubers didn't fail to embarass themselves with al the doom and gloom talk they could muster!
Lol. We know exactly what happened. Japan saw a 7% dump. That lead to futures taking a dump, which lead to risk desks forcing liquidations on firms to meet their risk requirements. It was a positive feedback loop that went through the night and into the next day. Right now, you still have options out there at higher costs than firms are willing to buy, while keeping this risk on their books (i.e. it's costing more to deload risk as a result of the increased vega). This will all likely be mostly over as of this next Monday once expirations push values closer to zero. If you're looking at what happened last week and this week in macro terms, you're missing the big picture. It started with risk desks forcing liquidations which resulted in the market taking a collective sh!t with their over-leveraged positions.
Recessions always start about 6 months to a year before the indicators force the central banks to declare them. We've been in one since late last year.
Something to note on the Berkshire AAPL sale; the sales took place in Q2, which means they ended no later than the end of June.
The Nekkei dropped 12% while the VIX spiked to 60 during institutional pre-market trading... all on sort-of-bad US job numbers?
Governments made the money printers go burrrrrrr. 😂
With so much panic and rumours, this was so refreshing thank you : )
Could not figure out what was going on with all the competing narratives out there, was hoping that the big bagel would do a video on this, thanks!
Best finance channel on CZcams. 1 mil subs soon!
Thank you for the explanation. I've only just started investing substantially (by my standards) in the stock market, mainly through xGRO ETFs. I'm still checking on an almost daily basis, which I know I shouldn't do. I'm in my 40s and this is going to be my retirement, so it's hard to not be affected by such drops in the market. Ultimately, I'm now resigned to keep investing my regular amount each month, irrespective of the condition of the market. But I can't lie that it isn't fun when your future 100% relies on the markets performing as they have done, long-term.
Why does everyone say interests rates are very high? They're normal right now? Is everyone just 20 year olds who think near-0% interest rates is normal?
They feel it more due to inflation. A $20k car feels very different at 0-2% than at $30k at 5-8%.
if you don't know what your doing, leave you portfolio alone and keep on cost averaging the dip.
A.i is overhyped but if handled properly, it will be a pretty big deal when its used in the right places.
Crazy point of view here.. it'll go up again ?
Prices are already correcting themselves from the crash
This was a spooky few weeks. I just got back into stocks last month, because I wanted to get in on QQQY. So this Correction, plus the Defiance Stock Split, caused a massive dip that had me lose 20% at one point in my portfolio. I also Margin everything I can, too, I have a goal to rush to next year (don't worry, I don't plan on quitting my day job). It's sad so many others lost their spine, especially just before the reverse stock split.
A calm voice in a sea of hysteria and false news.
Personally I see it as a good time to invest in good companies, some of my favorite companies have been hit by this correction so I’m intrigued to see how it pans out.
For those looking at inflation and consumer spending… most schools cut financial education programs and our younger (20-40s) earners are dumb as shit and keep buying 80k cars on 8yr loans at 6%…
Until we buck that trend or our relentless credit spending, the inflation and consumer spending metrics ain’t going down. Lol
Well the capitalists wanted that, and so conservatives cut that type of education. Capitalists need wage slaves.
Thanks for explaining the carry trade bro. Simple and easy to follow. You know stuff xD
excellent video! It is very difficult to be macro strategist. 👍🏻
Thanks for yet another great video!
I know really little about finance/economy and I just wanna say that I really appreciate your insight and knowledge
I don't even know where the stock market is headed to right now. my portfolio of around 200k is not increasing more than 5% and people are predicting a crash.
It is through science that we prove, but through intuition that we discover.
man this guy now has almost a million subs! when i first watched his video he had like 70k
Great video. Would you please create a video on CRWD security incident and the potential impact of such events on the stock. Thanks
Meanwhile in Australia the ASX200 only had a 2.08%drop over the last 5 days, down 1.42% in the last month and still up 2.14% over the last 6 months at the time of typing this.