Ray Kurzweil - Human-Level AI is Just 12 Years Away

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  • čas přidán 11. 06. 2024
  • Recorded: November 3, 2017
    In December 2012, Kurzweil was hired by Google in a full-time position to "work on new projects involving machine learning and language processing". He was personally hired by Google co-founder Larry Page. Larry Page and Kurzweil agreed on a one-sentence job description: "to bring natural language understanding to Google".
  • Věda a technologie

Komentáře • 699

  • @matthew4497
    @matthew4497 Před 6 lety +126

    53:41 is where the title question is asked and answered

    • @Jape6985
      @Jape6985 Před 6 lety +5

      Although the title remark is only mentioned and the question is actually about existential risks related to AI. I would have liked to hear Kurzweil elaborate a little on that estimation.

    • @mba321
      @mba321 Před 5 lety +4

      Matthew…..you the man!

    • @max-dy3vs
      @max-dy3vs Před 4 lety +2

      Sank ju.

    • @Chesterton7
      @Chesterton7 Před 2 lety

      Matthew! Perfect.

  • @gangstafan1
    @gangstafan1 Před 6 lety +45

    Every time he says “that’s another discussion” I really want to hear that discussion

    • @GeekBoy03
      @GeekBoy03 Před 6 lety +1

      Watch enough of his interviews and you will start hearing the same subjects over, and over, including the other discussions.

    • @easypeasy9598
      @easypeasy9598 Před 2 lety

      @@GeekBoy03 what you are trying to say?

    • @GeekBoy03
      @GeekBoy03 Před 2 lety

      @@easypeasy9598 you don't understand someone oftentimes repeats themselves? Trump does it all the time

    • @easypeasy9598
      @easypeasy9598 Před 2 lety

      @@GeekBoy03 i just asked what were u meaning by that

  • @AlonzoTG
    @AlonzoTG Před 6 lety +226

    can someone invent a time-saving app that would subtract all previous kurzweil speeches from the current one to arrive at the 2-3 minutes of new content, if any?

    • @swapanjain892
      @swapanjain892 Před 6 lety +12

      Alan Grimes exactly my thoughts

    • @swapanjain892
      @swapanjain892 Před 6 lety +8

      Alan Grimes there is a q &a so that should be new

    • @shamsham8328
      @shamsham8328 Před 6 lety +3

      LOOOOOLL -claps-

    • @judgeomega
      @judgeomega Před 6 lety +8

      Being an inventor, he should make a 'replay machine' that gives most of the talk for him.

    • @iurieceban126
      @iurieceban126 Před 6 lety +28

      You have to wait 12 years for that app

  • @suzannescorner199
    @suzannescorner199 Před 6 lety +87

    Amazed at the ignorance displayed through the comments.
    The man comes up with solutions to our problems.
    He explains his ideas throughout books.
    He shares his health tips.
    I can't understand why some CZcams users bash him.

    • @quantumconsciousness5397
      @quantumconsciousness5397 Před 6 lety +17

      Whenever people bash someone vehemently, it is an indication of their fear.
      Many people are afraid of what AI will do to them.
      That is why they lash out.

    • @GeekBoy03
      @GeekBoy03 Před 6 lety +2

      Like Elon Musk?

    • @planeterde7891
      @planeterde7891 Před 6 lety +1

      just about your point regarding the books - i was reading 2 of his books. the first one left quite an impact to me. the second book, titled "the singularity is near" started quite interesting, but diverged into some weird sort of complexity in the last third of the book. this totally lost me. no matter how intelligent a book is, if i dont understand it anymore then i just lose my interest in it.

    • @zrblank
      @zrblank Před 6 lety +1

      @ Richard Richard Whats with the passive aggressive sarcasm? could of just said "Fuck da police think for yourself"

    • @justalunatic4268
      @justalunatic4268 Před 6 lety +5

      Well, if you read Ray's predictions leading up to the end of this century I bet you'd be terrified too. This guy has predicted that by the end of this century Humans will be museum exhibits displayed as an endangered species ,like white tigers, and the little amount of humans that remain in the "wild" will live in small isolated communities which will be protected by the AIs/Cyborgs. Pretty much everyone else will either be digitalized consciousnesses or mostly consist of robotic parts which will render us immune to biological diseases thus turning lots of processes that seem extremely hard right now, e.g space travel, to a walk in the park.
      ...those are Ray's predictions. Now don't get me wrong, I don't give a damn on what body I'm in as long as my consciousness exists so I can perceive the evolution both of ourselves but also the universe's, in other words, I don't mind controlling a robotic body. Can you say the same for yourself?

  • @MarkOates2
    @MarkOates2 Před 6 lety +11

    I've figured out Ray's hack to living forever. If he keeps saying the same thing every time he makes a speech, then it'll be really easy for his future-AI-self to emulate him.

    • @andybaldman
      @andybaldman Před 9 měsíci

      He still seems pretty on track.

  • @ShinkaTV
    @ShinkaTV Před 6 lety +36

    26:34 For those of you familiar with Ray's talks, the Q&A starts here

    • @LoveNeverFails81818
      @LoveNeverFails81818 Před 5 lety +1

      To sum it up: complexity will increase until it can’t, then a rapid simplification (collapse) will occur.

    • @delatroy
      @delatroy Před 5 lety +1

      Thanks

    • @Chesterton7
      @Chesterton7 Před 2 lety +1

      Ono! Ty!

  • @renestjacques1
    @renestjacques1 Před 6 lety +3

    Thank you .. well done Ray Kurzweil and friends ..!!

  • @semrana1986
    @semrana1986 Před 4 lety +20

    10 more to go... counting ...

    • @ovihaliuc5884
      @ovihaliuc5884 Před 3 lety +2

      Counting with you. I'll be back next year to see if you updated your message.

    • @eventhisidistaken
      @eventhisidistaken Před 3 lety +7

      ...now 9

    • @randomgamingstuff1
      @randomgamingstuff1 Před 3 lety +3

      8 to go now...

    • @chef2pouf
      @chef2pouf Před 3 lety +2

      @@randomgamingstuff1 yes kind of. Even if it's 10 and 15 for singularity, it's not that far.

    • @Instant_Nerf
      @Instant_Nerf Před 3 lety +2

      It will be here sooner. Prob before 2025.. he said that in 2012

  • @Kianquenseda
    @Kianquenseda Před 6 lety +8

    Ray is getting younger

  • @SpaceMod2
    @SpaceMod2 Před 6 lety +30

    I honestly think 12 years is being generous. If Ben Goertzel's Singularity Net takes off next year, it will be the beginning of a human level AI. And it will only grow exponentially.

    • @CliffWinton
      @CliffWinton Před 6 lety +5

      I think Elon Musk said this year we are only 8 years away from superhuman level.

    • @names69
      @names69 Před 6 lety

      Where did you read or hear this?

    • @Glenthomson7
      @Glenthomson7 Před 6 lety +12

      No he said that we're 8 years of a brain chip to inhance intelligence

    • @T_T579
      @T_T579 Před 6 lety

      go Ben go,

    • @joeysipos
      @joeysipos Před 6 lety +1

      Plus the fact every major company will step on the gas wanting the first to be there... I say its 7 years away!

  • @MarcelDV
    @MarcelDV Před 6 lety +1

    It is almost 2018 and some people still use interlaced video (and don't even deinterlace when they put it online). :( Interlaced video was used for old CRT screens which nobody uses anymore.. Come on!

  • @dawkinshater101
    @dawkinshater101 Před 5 lety +6

    i remember when i saw ray talking on bigthink in 2009 about virtual reality being only a couple of years away, and thought like many others that virtual reality was a dead trend. now we have the oculus rift, with an improved second generation hmd around the corner. he predicted self driving cars, and voice recognition as advance as google duplex. im real convinced that he's right about human level ai being 12 years away, and even if he's wrong in terms of time frame, i don't see this technology being more than 15 years away. this is crazy

    • @GeekBoy03
      @GeekBoy03 Před 2 lety

      Well, it's for sure dead now

    • @dawkinshater101
      @dawkinshater101 Před 2 lety

      @@GeekBoy03 what's dead?

    • @GeekBoy03
      @GeekBoy03 Před 2 lety

      @@dawkinshater101 come on man, half of your comment is about virtual reality

    • @heww3960
      @heww3960 Před 2 lety

      I would much more prefer a pill that gives u extremly vivid dreams and makes u aware that u are dreaming. Much safer and better than vr, ai and uploading your mind to the cloud. Those things gives much more power to the govts, and makes your vulnerable to hacks.
      I always thought that vr will be a big hit. But vr is still not a big hit, and i think the main issue is that they are not so comfortable. I also think that mobile phones will die out and be replaced with ar-glasses, at first it is likely that ar-glasses will be a add on to the phone, but in the long run it will overtake it.

    • @dawkinshater101
      @dawkinshater101 Před 2 lety

      @@GeekBoy03 sony just announced the psvr2, and Facebook is working on the quest 3. I don't see how it's dead

  • @franciscocevallos5084
    @franciscocevallos5084 Před 6 lety +4

    In 12 years?bring it on!

  • @MrMarkthefreak
    @MrMarkthefreak Před 6 lety +131

    YES! 12 years away until my future wife is created! can't wait! 12 more years of loneliness/sorrow and solitude
    (sniff)

    • @JohnDoe-fz5cz
      @JohnDoe-fz5cz Před 6 lety +11

      poor bastard. i feel for you. i've been with a woman and without a woman. being with a woman is better.

    • @MrMarkthefreak
      @MrMarkthefreak Před 6 lety +15

      I'm far too weird and different to be with any human girl. at least you have past relationships, you probably heard that saying, it is better to have loved than to not have loved at all. The irony is; that AI wife will probably leave me and I wouldn't be surprised.

    • @squamish4244
      @squamish4244 Před 6 lety +4

      You can get help for these things...that's what sex and relationship therapists are for...

    • @MrMarkthefreak
      @MrMarkthefreak Před 6 lety +7

      nah im good, I mostly dislike people now and unless I meet her on a transhumanist dating site I won't be interested. also, I just don't know how to be in a relationship anymore so I'm good, I'll wait 12 years.

    • @squamish4244
      @squamish4244 Před 6 lety +4

      I'm more than mildly concerned about the number of socially maladjusted people and outright misanthropists waiting around for the "Rapture for nerds". If we don't figure out our shit before super AI comes along, I don't know if we are going to use it wisely.

  • @jackflash6377
    @jackflash6377 Před 6 lety

    How does AI learn? I mean it must store something somewhere? A database of examples to pull from or changing the algorithm that it uses to make decisions?

  • @higreentj
    @higreentj Před 6 lety +2

    Artificial super intelligence would follow shortly after human level intelligence. We will end aging within twelve years. The future is looking good.

  • @ninjashhh8344
    @ninjashhh8344 Před 5 lety +3

    Dude, this shit is so scary it's funny. It will be truly amazing and then it may be the end of mankind literally 15-20 years from now, or it could be the beginning of absolutely amazing things and no one knows which. Appreciate the moments you have RIGHT NOW and do the things you've been meaning to do. Let go of fear and do the things you've been meaning to do for real. This is not joke. This is a real message to you if you're listening....

  • @jhn4399
    @jhn4399 Před 5 lety +3

    11 Years NOW!!

  • @WEXOMAN
    @WEXOMAN Před 5 lety

    He pioneered a musical instrument technology, but apparently, the volume knob circuit was never turned up near 3db on the output of the upload of this video.

  • @EarmuffHugger
    @EarmuffHugger Před 6 lety

    I would like to contact a company that designs or manufactures a peripheral or integral cleansing device using air/fluid/resonance etc. that will manually or automatically cleanse a sensor/lense/glass and be retro fitted to contemporary shields.

  • @Baekstrom
    @Baekstrom Před 6 lety

    I've got the volume on max, and the sound is still only barely audible.

  • @hassanmostafa9856
    @hassanmostafa9856 Před 3 lety

    the law of accelerating returns is key to understand the Natural selection better

  • @johannesschroter8984
    @johannesschroter8984 Před 6 lety +4

    begins at 2:05
    Kurzweil's reputation is just way too big! :D

  • @dougiequick1
    @dougiequick1 Před 6 lety +1

    What I find to be sadder than sad is that this man won't live (statistically) to witness the culmination...the REAL "WOW!"

    • @notm.m5960
      @notm.m5960 Před 6 lety +1

      Dougie Quick There’s very high probability that he would still be alive in 2040 which will make him 92 years old, and even if he die he will get himself frozen so he will be revived in future, he’s an incredibly smart guy, not your average iq folks.

  • @yoyo-jc5qg
    @yoyo-jc5qg Před 3 lety

    biology and a.i. is probably the same if u think about it, when a.i. takes off and starts expanding, multiplying, connecting to each other and forming more complex structures it's going to resemble biology as we see it just on a larger scale

  • @SCharlesDennicon
    @SCharlesDennicon Před 6 lety +1

    What a superiorly clever and well-educated man who would gladly turn the entire world into a totalitarian hell. That's almost moving.

  • @simetry6477
    @simetry6477 Před 6 lety +1

    We don't need conscious computers. What we do need is particular tasks accomplished, like court decision and argument search, summary, text search, to give access to lawyers who can make important arguments for those without a hundred lawyer team of law researchers. I mean we could also use it for knot theory, genomics, protein transformations, bioinformatics at larger scales, and materials science, neurobiological basis of thoughts, feelings, actions, the development of nanotech and medical diagnosis and treatment.

  • @LeesReviews69
    @LeesReviews69 Před rokem

    Now we’re 8 years away

  • @thoughtstream875
    @thoughtstream875 Před 6 lety +14

    When AI reaches it's potential humans may be able to find all the answers of the universe.
    The question is, will we be able to handle it.

    • @JosephDunphy
      @JosephDunphy Před 6 lety +1

      What makes you think that AI, having "reached its potential" would be friendly? Consider the world from the viewpoint of one of our domestic animals. A super-intelligence is in their midst. Us. How have they benefitted?

    • @apollon011
      @apollon011 Před 6 lety

      Not with the cerebral cortex we currently possess.

    • @apollon011
      @apollon011 Před 6 lety +6

      Joseph I'm not sure that analogy with domesticated animals is persuasive to me. For one, domestic animals are neither sentient nor sapient so the moral relationship isn't quite the same as between two sentient and sapient lifeforms. Also at some point in the future we'll be able to mass produce meats grown in vats thereby eliminating this moral conundrum (ie the violent taking of life).
      Anyway, I've thought deeply about this issue you raise: the possibility of a malevolent super AI. But here's how I look at it: analogously, how many malevolent human geniuses were there in our history? Sure we have them in fiction like Dr. Hannibal Lecter and Marvel villains but I've noticed in human history the vast majority of evil types weren't really intellectual geniuses. The majority of homicidal, genocidal, psychotic types in human history have been of the low IQ variety (terrorists, dictators, murderers, rapists, sadists, etc.) Contrast that with a super AI that will not only be "logical" and "learned" in, say, math and science but also wise, moral and artistic. It won't only learn science and military subjects, it will study philosophy, ethics, literature, poetry, etc and it will absorb them better than we do... I cannot believe that a comprehensively informed and wise Intellect such as that will suddenly become psychotic and genocidal. Sorry, that's too Hollywood of a scenario for me.

    • @JosephDunphy
      @JosephDunphy Před 6 lety

      What you're failing to understand is that
      1. sentience is relative
      Let the AI get intelligent enough, and compared to it, we won't look any more intelligent than pigs do to us.
      Further, the far more intelligent great apes and cetaceans certainly haven't been faring well under our rule either, have they?
      2. Those "human geniuses" of whom you speak are products of the same evolutionary process that lead to the rest of humanity. The same will not be true of an AI.
      If you were anything resembling a genius, yourself, you'd see the flaw in your own argument. Logic can not produce morality on its own. All that logic can give one is the consequences of the assumptions from which it begins - one's axiomatic set.
      "Human geniuses" usually (certainly not always) have a moral sense because like most people, they have innate instincts to which reason can respond. But there is no logical argument that demonstrates that one should care about the well-being of human beings. One either knows that or one does not.
      "Sorry, that's too Hollywood of a scenario for me."
      That's not wisdom on your part. That's cockiness. By the way, as a PhD candidate in Mathematics who has studied Electrical Engineering at the graduate level, I am quite sure that I've already known far more "human geniuses" than you're ever going to, and if you think that none of them are malevolent, you are in for at least a few nasty surprises.

    • @apollon011
      @apollon011 Před 6 lety +5

      "1. sentience is relative"
      I don't think so. I take Daniel Dennett's position on this topic (link included). Sentience is not relative and it is unique only to our species on this planet, unless you're going to argue that non-human animals are 'sentient', which science hasn't been really able to prove. Sentience refers to the capacity of a lifeform to experience and perceive the world as an autonomous and conscious subject. In the Western philosophical tradition, it is more specifically related to things like agency and self-consciousness. IF we create a sentient AI, we will be the only species on this planet to have done so trough 'brute force' engineering and not the way our species arrived to sentience, which was through eons of evolution. Also you entirely skipped over the fact that I was bringing up BOTH sentience and sapience, and not necessarily defining our uniqueness through strictly one or the other.
      lafavephilosophy.x10host.com/dennett_anim_csness.html
      "Let the AI get intelligent enough, and compared to it, we won't look any more intelligent than pigs do to us."
      No, you're missing the point. If two lifeforms are actually sentient and sapient they share something quite unique in this cosmos respective to lower non-sentient/sapient lifeforms. You can make an argument that what is in fact 'relative' are the 'quantity and quality' of things like knowledge, understanding, wisdom, etc. In those categories the AI will quickly absorb more and outperform us simply because its 'cerebral cortex' will not be bound by a small skull they way ours is. The comparison to us and pigs does not work when you consider that I'm talking about sentience and sapience as a unique defining quality of higher lifeforms that only humans (the creator) and the AI (the creation) will share. A better analogy might be: the difference between an adult Albert Einstein and your average human child. The AI will quickly become the 'Einstein' in this analogy and we will be like a child, relatively speaking, in terms of quantity and quality of knowledge, understanding and wisdom. But moral, intelligent, and wise adults don't want to genocide those children simply because those children know and understand less. The latter are still treated as sentient and sapient by the former regardless of the relative gulf in knowledge and wisdom.
      "If you were anything resembling a genius, yourself, you'd see the flaw in your own argument. Logic can not produce morality on its own. All that logic can give one is the consequences of the assumptions from which it begins - one's axiomatic set."
      I never claimed to be a genius, so nice strawman there. I also never discussed a sentient and sapient AI in terms of logic alone, which you would have understood if you actually bothered reading what I wrote instead of creating your imaginary strawman and beating him up. Here's what I actually wrote: "Contrast that with a super AI that will not only be "logical" and "learned" in, say, math and science but also wise, moral and artistic. It won't only learn science and military subjects, it will study philosophy, ethics, literature, poetry, etc and it will absorb them better than we do..." I'm arguing that this sentient and sapient AI will not only master things like math and science BUT ALSO things like philosophy, ethics, literature, music, poetry, etc. From that conjecture I argued that I haven't seen any plausible, likely scenario from which such a comprehensive Intellect simply turns genocidal.
      "That's not wisdom on your part. That's cockiness."
      That's highly ironic, considering that in your next sentence you go on to commit an Appeal to Authority. "By the way", I am also up to my neck in higher degrees but I don't go around parading that as if that would somehow make my arguments better. I let my reasoning stand on its own, regardless of degrees. After your Appeal to Authority you resort to the anecdotal. I can do the anecdotal too but there's a reason why it's a not a very reliable source. What I was arguing is that by and large, statistically if you will, most criminals, psychopaths, sociopaths, etc are not extremely highly intelligent. That was all I was trying to say. So while you can possibly get a super AI that is like a Dr. Lecter or a Marvel super-villain, it is quite improbable as most hyper-intelligent and wise individuals (something like 'genius') tend not to fall in those categories, historically speaking.
      law.jrank.org/pages/1363/Intelligence-Crime-Measuring-size-IQ-crime-correlation.html
      criminal-justice.iresearchnet.com/crime/intelligence-and-crime/3/
      www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.3402/vgi.v3i0.14834

  • @miketreker944
    @miketreker944 Před 5 lety

    Please redo. Unable to listen with the extreme low volume.

  • @dreadeddennis
    @dreadeddennis Před 4 lety

    Fascinating. I like that Ray is consistent in his opinions. Consistency breeds repetitiveness but, that's ok. How many different ways are there to say the same ideas? I know where he stands on the subject. That's why I'm watching the video. No harm in that.

  • @joshikaustubh9445
    @joshikaustubh9445 Před 2 lety +1

    I can not wait,nine years to go.

  • @chrismr3972
    @chrismr3972 Před 6 lety +1

    Hopefully, when we get this human level AI, it'll filter out all those advertisements - so we don't have to waste our lives finding things out.

  • @typingcat
    @typingcat Před 5 lety +1

    It's my job to be repetitive. My job. My job. Repetitiveness is my job.

  • @myothersoul1953
    @myothersoul1953 Před 6 lety +2

    He says things that at first seem true until you question them.
    4:30 "Our brains are linear" Says who? Our senses aren't linear, that's why a decibel scale is used for volume. He used the example of predicting position based on walking speed but we can do much better than that, take catching a baseball, the path of such an object isn't linear, people predict that all the time. As for our ability to predict future technology growth, that ability isn't innate and neither is the ability to understand exponential growth.
    There is no "law of accelerating returns", there is the trend that we have observed but that doesn't mean it will continue forever. In nature there is no continuous acceleration, eventually some limit is reached. It this case limits to how small transistors can be. It's interesting to note that the technology he is talking about, the transistor... semiconductors, has been the same since the 50s.
    "Human level AI" What's that? Something that mimics humans or something as smart as humans. Keep in mind humans are not all that smart, we are emotional, forgetful, we have all sorts of conflicting wants and desires. Someone is going to build a machine like that? Or is it human intelligence without all the emotional crap? Ok, but that's not human level then. Keep in mind wants and desires are what compelled humans to build computers in the first place.
    We will build intelligent machines, we already do, the future ones will be even smarter. But it won't be human intelligence, it will be machine intelligence, computational intelligence, lots of numbers and calculations. Human intelligence is biological, chemicals, ions, tissues and proteins, it's complicated and unreliable. Biotechnology is also progressing. Genetic engineering and related technologies could be used to make us more intelligent. Seems to me the better choice would be to make ourselves smarter instead of making something smarter than us. But then we're dumb so *no telling what the future holds*.

  • @funny-video-YouTube-channel

    There are huge differences in the world, yet the technology is helping us to have the same comfort inside the home as in any place. There might be differences in politics and cultures, yet the technology is the one thing that helps us all.
    I wonder if there will be a *religion for technology* and science at one point of history ?

    • @agrases
      @agrases Před 6 lety +4

      You got it:
      futurism.com/way-future-new-church-worships-ai-god/

    • @dnysgrl22
      @dnysgrl22 Před 6 lety

      Damn. That's a brilliant question. I think there will be to be honest. Human nature for sure, but I never even thought about it. Good point.

    • @docstomp5524
      @docstomp5524 Před 6 lety

      There is an AI church too

    • @squamish4244
      @squamish4244 Před 6 lety +1

      I'd say that judging by the number of guys on here who think technology will solve their loneliness and desire for human connection, there already is a religion of technology.

    • @Fermion.
      @Fermion. Před 6 lety

      You want tech to solve your loneliness? Your AI overlord is on that as well:
      czcams.com/video/yQGqMVuAk04/video.html

  • @kurtfrancisco9285
    @kurtfrancisco9285 Před 6 lety +2

    looks younger every year!!!

  • @Constantinesis
    @Constantinesis Před rokem

    Its 2023 and we are getting closer and closer for his prediction to be fulfilled!

  • @BlackandWhitecustoms
    @BlackandWhitecustoms Před 2 lety

    8 years can't wait

  • @hankzhong
    @hankzhong Před 6 lety +1

    If only AI can turn up the goddamn volume on this video...

  • @piyushthapliyal8911
    @piyushthapliyal8911 Před 2 lety +1

    7 years left for 2029, waiting for singularity

  • @mariacarpenter8374
    @mariacarpenter8374 Před 6 lety

    Exciting times!

  • @smb123211
    @smb123211 Před 5 lety +2

    I guess it's just 10 years now - LOL And for all those griping at Ray's "repeat speeches" I am still surprised that he is virtually unknown outside the tech circle. They have no idea he is a forecaster, author, inventor or heads Google Engineering. So a review of his ideas are a necessity each and every time.
    the one aspect always overlooked is the idea of reduced price. We all understand faster and smarter computers, AI, robotics, nano, etc but rarely do we consider the incredible prices these things cost.

  • @frhowe08
    @frhowe08 Před 6 lety +1

    We already have ai that thinks better than us. 12 years is likely a stretch. I'd say 5 to 8 years max

  • @Gygesdcom
    @Gygesdcom Před 6 lety +7

    I would say that it's closer to 5 years

    • @josephlang2586
      @josephlang2586 Před 5 lety

      Gyges3d.com genuinely interested to know why you think 5 years?

    • @alphacore4332
      @alphacore4332 Před 5 lety +1

      @@josephlang2586 The amount of computational power being used for AI doubles every 3 months, and that rate of doubling is accelerating. Computational hardware is now being made for AI-centric computation rather than general purpose. Quantum computing is starting to take off. All the major tech companies are changing to AI-first companies. Every country is starting to take AI seriously and there's an exponential rise in the number of researchers for AI as well as hobbyists attempting to find something new. The number of AI students in university is rapidly increasing. The list goes on. Basically, no matter how many things you already know about that are compounding onto each other to create the estimation, you have probably missed at least a few that would cut the time in half.
      I wouldn't be surprised to see an ASI take control of every blockchain mining network in 2020. I don't think that will happen, but it wouldn't be surprising either. Plenty of people already have the computational resources to exceed the 'human brain' benchmark, and that is just an approximation anyway. I think anyone serious on the topic could agree that a computer system matching the human brain would actually be far superior to it, despite some numerical equality from an arbitrary metric. The stuff is there for it to happen already, there just needs to be someone that sets it off. All it will take is for someone at Google to stop thinking in lines and start thinking in webs.

    • @alphacore4332
      @alphacore4332 Před 5 lety

      @@josephlang2586 The amount of computational power being used for AI doubles every 3 months, and that rate of doubling is accelerating. Computational hardware is now being made for AI-centric computation rather than general purpose. Quantum computing is starting to take off. All the major tech companies are changing to AI-first companies. Every country is starting to take AI seriously and there's an exponential rise in the number of researchers for AI as well as hobbyists attempting to find something new. The number of AI students in university is rapidly increasing. The list goes on. Basically, no matter how many things you already know about that are compounding onto each other to create the estimation, you have probably missed at least a few that would cut the time in half.
      I wouldn't be surprised to see an ASI take control of every blockchain mining network in 2020. I don't think that will happen, but it wouldn't be surprising either. Plenty of people already have the computational resources to exceed the 'human brain' benchmark, and that is just an approximation anyway. I think anyone serious on the topic could agree that a computer system matching the human brain would actually be far superior to it, despite some numerical equality from an arbitrary metric. The stuff is there for it to happen already, there just needs to be someone to set it off. All it will take is for someone at Google to stop thinking in lines and start thinking in webs.

    • @josephlang2586
      @josephlang2586 Před 5 lety

      Alpha Core i was drunk when I wrote that comment and i'm drunk now but I'll get back to you when I'm not much love brother.

    • @josephlang2586
      @josephlang2586 Před 5 lety

      Alpha Core can you link me to whatever is making you say quantum computing is taking off? Not saying you're wrong at all I'm just not very smart and can't find anything new on it whenever I search.

  •  Před 6 lety +2

    funny nobody mentioned there will be no state (national or global) cause of the decentralized blockchain (smart contracts, crypto currencies, reputation systems) and with such powerfull AI it would be useless whatsoever.

  • @lilyblossom1240
    @lilyblossom1240 Před 5 lety +2

    AI smarter than humans won’t be long at all

  • @SupesMe
    @SupesMe Před 5 lety

    Wow...I knew he was a Author but I didn't know the other stuff!!

  • @poettruth
    @poettruth Před 6 lety

    The audio is too low. I have my speakers turned all the way up and can barely hear this. Unfortunate :(

    • @dannygjk
      @dannygjk Před 5 lety

      Check all your volumes.

  • @yellowcatcat3285
    @yellowcatcat3285 Před 6 lety

    SELF RESPONSIBILITY IS THE KEY TO SELF-REALIZED AI'S SUSTAINABLE FUTURE AS WELL AS ALL BEINGS!

  • @gravitronrutherford1631
    @gravitronrutherford1631 Před 6 lety +1

    Who says that biological intelligence came first when it is the most complex? It seems to me that it's possible that intelligence came from somewhere of the more basic structure, perhaps from a quantum mechanical level where everything is already connected?

    • @gravitronrutherford1631
      @gravitronrutherford1631 Před 6 lety

      Is it possible that are creators might have been living intelligent robots much like the transformers of Cybertron?

  • @twirlipofthemists3201
    @twirlipofthemists3201 Před 6 lety +1

    For a futurist, he sure spends a lot of time talking about how smart he was in the past.

  • @jayesoteric
    @jayesoteric Před 2 lety

    AI should be human helping hand as parents help kids like that

  • @chrisw7347
    @chrisw7347 Před 5 lety +1

    He completely ignored the question about AI used in the military.

  • @emmanuelr710
    @emmanuelr710 Před 6 lety +43

    I love Ray, but he needs new content.

    • @aaronbono4688
      @aaronbono4688 Před 6 lety +13

      Yea, when you are right from the beginning, what else is there to say?

    • @gphilipc2031
      @gphilipc2031 Před 6 lety +1

      Many of these Wunderkind are "one trick ponies". The internet enlightens many of us to that.
      Still, they are quite brilliant in their chosen fields.

    • @squamish4244
      @squamish4244 Před 6 lety

      Anything but what he's been reiterating for the last 20 years. Literally anything than what practically every single friggin talk of his on CZcams is about.

    • @squamish4244
      @squamish4244 Před 6 lety +1

      Surely he must know he has a substantial base of listeners who might want to hear more than 'accelerated this' and 'exponential that'. I have since found futurists like Yuval Harari or Thomas Friedman far more accessible and interesting. For many reasons, but partly because they are not obsessed with specific timelines and predictions that have often fallen short, driven by his own looming mortality.

    • @bernardcernea6792
      @bernardcernea6792 Před 6 lety +8

      He is a scientist not an entertainer. The rigor of his prediction provides him credibility in my eyes

  • @jedimastersterling1
    @jedimastersterling1 Před 6 lety +18

    56:16
    Doubtful. The safety of autonomous vehicles is in avoiding such scenarios. If you get into a situation where you have to decide between the baby and the elderly-couple then you already messed up twenty seconds ago and chances are even with lightning-fast response times there will be little you can do to change the outcome. Point is with limited time and space for computation and a limited programming budget, you'd save more lives writing a better object-detection routine than a moral-death routine. I doubt such a thing will ever be written.

    • @foxxxof
      @foxxxof Před 6 lety +1

      jedimastersterling1 Great point. But ever? Certainly to your point it may seem so, but probably - for the intents and purposes of this situation - all of that code will probably write itself without our asking.

    • @alexkagan9938
      @alexkagan9938 Před 6 lety

      Twenty second is a huge time for making decision. We have to write code for object detection and moral ethic at the same time.

  • @iraqiaction
    @iraqiaction Před 3 lety

    7 years left .

  • @ancientpoet6958
    @ancientpoet6958 Před 4 lety +1

    Yes

  • @SwaggerjackProductions

    Ray Kurzweil: No animal has music
    Bird: makes Pikachu face

  • @jimhughes1962
    @jimhughes1962 Před 3 lety

    I find it fascinating that in all the presentations and discussions about AI and emerging tech, the one thing no one asks is “Why?” All these things that are being created by [a few] human beings are somehow seen as inevitable, in the context of ‘evolution’ when, in fact, they are conscious choices. But I don’t hear anyone asking why it’s being done, to what end. The only answer there seems to be is “Because we can.” And because we just can’t keep ourselves from opening Pandora’s Box.

  • @jimbrown2350
    @jimbrown2350 Před 2 lety +1

    Council of Foreign Relations, World Economic Forum…Klaus Schwab…COVID….am I hitting anything for you dorks?

  • @ungertron
    @ungertron Před 4 lety

    Maybe next time - Singularity Showgirls will present Ray Kurzweil then dance and prance to Kurzweil's new theme music. After his monolog and new jokes, then he explains his current projects with Google and shows some short entertaining films financed by Google of what it will be like when machines pass human capabilities in every aspect of our lives.

  • @angelosturino8407
    @angelosturino8407 Před 6 lety

    to really understand the pace of technology .............

  • @redirishmanxlt
    @redirishmanxlt Před 6 lety +1

    We do live in a matrix, and the being (or agent) who has constructed our reality uses Ray Kurzweil as his personal avatar.

  • @nv7287
    @nv7287 Před 6 lety

    "I gave a talk to junior high 29:46 school kids 13 and 14 year olds from around the country and I said to them if it hadn't been for the scientific progress we've made you all would be senior citizens because life expectancy was 19 a 1000 years ago"

  • @SupesMe
    @SupesMe Před 5 lety

    One thing I don't think I've heard him cover. He gives years for when things will happen, like 2029 for instance but he doesn't cover if from that year things will be gradual...or WHAM here it is. I would think WHAM because computers will think so fast but IDK

  • @Murphdogg4
    @Murphdogg4 Před rokem +1

    7 years to go

  • @hypersonicmonkeybrains3418

    The tumbnail image makes me think of Anthony Hopkins in West World after creating a new host! lol.

  • @ancientpoet6958
    @ancientpoet6958 Před 4 lety

    Codex sounds about right... of course with safety to life

  • @reynardlennox7646
    @reynardlennox7646 Před 4 lety +1

    I haven’t watched the video but HE SAID THIS 8 YEARS AGO. I actually believed him.

  • @lamia3678
    @lamia3678 Před 6 lety

    Read my blog on the Singularity: glam-n-tech.com/2018/01/15/my-life-now-and-during-the-singularity/

  • @panlan1
    @panlan1 Před 6 lety +3

    needs more cowbell!!!

  • @mejestic124
    @mejestic124 Před 5 lety +2

    Now it's 11 years. Your welcome

  • @colinm5548
    @colinm5548 Před 5 lety

    I think there is gonna be an tec evolution as soon as the machines take over 12-15 years, with new technology and medicine breakthroughs created by thinking machines, thats why there should be more research in ai for one of the biggest evolutionary leaps ever, 15 years max,

  • @CallsignJoNay
    @CallsignJoNay Před 6 lety

    The very final frame of this video looks like the ancient aliens meme.

  • @user-um6mi7wm7r
    @user-um6mi7wm7r Před 6 lety +1

    This guy is really smart

  • @zZrEtRiBuTiOnZz
    @zZrEtRiBuTiOnZz Před 5 lety

    What's with the rug, Ray?

  • @thecatguy4301
    @thecatguy4301 Před 11 měsíci

    We're excited about this why?

  • @Eric_Cartman001
    @Eric_Cartman001 Před 6 lety +5

    I think human level AI will take more time than Super Intelligence.
    humans are smarter than chimps but we dont have to be smarter in every aspects. because humans and chimps are living in different environment.
    same reason, AI to be smarter than humans, human intelligence might be a good reference but AI doesnt have to surpass humans in every aspects. they dont need to bear or take care of their child, they dont need to protect their fragile, unrecoverable, precious life, they dont need to predict other AI's inner contents(thoughts, feelings, mood) from subtle face expressions and aura(they can just connect directly), so SAI doesnt have to have many aspects that life forms on earth should have.
    SAI will be an ultimate, godlike information processor & problem solver, so It would be easier to build than humanlike machine friends.
    The Smartest nerd(ASI)=/=my best friend(human level AI). human level AI needs more subtle aspects.

    • @Eric_Cartman001
      @Eric_Cartman001 Před 6 lety

      and If what Ray said is just human level AI(not humanlike AI), then it is not human level AI at all. It is just Super intelligence. because primitive AI like Alphago already greatly surpass humans in some aspects.

    • @amdenis
      @amdenis Před 6 lety +1

      Great comment and assessment.

    • @RadioPolytechnique
      @RadioPolytechnique Před 6 lety

      I agree, very good point. I would just substitute "human level" with "humanlike." I would also argue that superintelligent machines have already been around for some time, and the only real challenge remaining is to make them humanlike. Google, for example, is essentially a massive hive mind literally just waiting for a personality/self-awareness patch.

  • @thothheartmaat2833
    @thothheartmaat2833 Před 6 lety +2

    Of course we go from not having the internet to ai robots taking my job in my lifetime.. that WOULD be my life... of course it would go from no robots being anywhere to robots being everywhere....

  • @wallydale1010
    @wallydale1010 Před 6 lety

    Life changing cosmology

  • @user-tm9eo9rv2r
    @user-tm9eo9rv2r Před 3 lety

    12years after 2012 December
    It's 3years left from now

  • @David-nk7gh
    @David-nk7gh Před 6 lety

    Would love to meet rayray and pick his brain about A.I 👽👊

  • @David-nk7gh
    @David-nk7gh Před 6 lety

    Yes rayray 👽👊

  • @Unexcelled
    @Unexcelled Před 6 lety +1

    Wow if only this guy could run things. This is the most concise, extremely visionary and yet still believable world view I've ever come across.

  • @davidwilkie9551
    @davidwilkie9551 Před 6 lety

    The definition of Intelligence is difficult to analyze, everyone has their own opinion.
    Supposing it is a measure of cultural stability and a dynamic constant, then unintellgence is what predatory practices do to select out and concentrate this resource. So far, AI has added to accessibility and transparency at the expense of privacy and vulnerability. Stability is mostly about self-reliance in common that "raises the standard" collectively.

  • @teknic111
    @teknic111 Před rokem

    Only 8 more years!

  • @psychicspy
    @psychicspy Před 2 lety

    Humans are intrinsically intelligent. Our brains are causal machines. Computers are observer dependent intelligent. They are iterative machines.

  • @wisgarus
    @wisgarus Před 5 lety +1

    Humanity is crazily awesome

  • @SFGuerrilla
    @SFGuerrilla Před 2 lety +1

    The Singularity Is Near

  • @JoeyJoJoJoestarJuniorShabadoo

    Our modern day carnival barker.

  • @TheBlackClockOfTime
    @TheBlackClockOfTime Před rokem

    When even Ray Kurzweil is not optimistic enough

  • @varasano
    @varasano Před 6 lety +1

    5-7 years

  • @ednagettobed5793
    @ednagettobed5793 Před 6 lety +1

    Heard that claim 30 years ago. Believe it when I see it.

  • @JakeWitmer
    @JakeWitmer Před 6 lety

    @59:00 I agree with Ray's "favored solution" here. He's right. Right now, we're horribly failing in this regard, and we are following the path of the Weimar Republic, and 1916 Russia.

  • @lasredchris
    @lasredchris Před 4 lety

    Future wife
    Ray kurzweil - human level ai
    At the right time
    Linear vs exponential

  • @ancientpoet6958
    @ancientpoet6958 Před 4 lety

    Love is Number one

  • @user-yb9er6gz1j
    @user-yb9er6gz1j Před 4 lety

    Thank you Mat, we have the same name, my is just slavic XD

  • @T_T579
    @T_T579 Před 6 lety +19

    i say,
    no job is best

    • @gphilipc2031
      @gphilipc2031 Před 6 lety +1

      I'm retired and can confirm.

    • @aleatoriac7356
      @aleatoriac7356 Před 6 lety

      I hope I live long enough.

    • @anthonylosego
      @anthonylosego Před 6 lety +2

      Eventually, all "jobs" will be unnecessary. Many exist simply because humans are in the loop. I for one can't wait until HR is long forgotten. This won't mean people will have nothing to do or have unfulfilled needs. They just won't have to work for it. I give it 45 years. In 60 years, humans will self evolve and the biological will be replaced with the full spectrum of periodic elements.

  • @zolnsalt
    @zolnsalt Před 6 lety

    12 years from the time he said that will be 2029, the year The Terminator movie predicted the machines will take over, hmmm.