How AI can bring on a second Industrial Revolution | Kevin Kelly
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- čas přidán 9. 07. 2024
- "The actual path of a raindrop as it goes down the valley is unpredictable, but the general direction is inevitable," says digital visionary Kevin Kelly -- and technology is much the same, driven by patterns that are surprising but inevitable. Over the next 20 years, he says, our penchant for making things smarter and smarter will have a profound impact on nearly everything we do. Kelly explores three trends in AI we need to understand in order to embrace it and steer its development. "The most popular AI product 20 years from now that everyone uses has not been invented yet," Kelly says. "That means that you're not late."
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"Everything we had electrified, we are now going to cognify" - speaks a lot about our current place in history.
This was an optimistic projection. Some economists argue that this industrial revolution will not bring new jobs the way industrial revolution did.
For sure there are gonna be alot of people working with AI, probably more than you imagine
industrial revolution put millions of people out of work. it is just how the country as a whole deals with it.
Well technocrats theorize about a point where AI is advanced enough to improve itself. Then what?
I am really not confident that people are going to transition to AI work. At least 30% of my uni CS course washed out, and uni acceptees are statistically in the upper 10% of population IQ. That means a whole lot of people are just plain too dumb - and that not even looking at the multiple years of retraining needed.
The only thing that's certain is that lots of manual work will be lost to AI. The idea that new types of jobs will be created that will compensate for this loss is merely a projection based on past experience. Any mass employment has to be based on productivity and efficiency, which the speaker rightly noted will go to AI so you won't have anything like farmers going to work for factories as in past times. Basically all low-skilled labor will be lost this time around and interfacing with AI will be high intellectual work requiring a masters or a Ph.D., it won't be anything like interfacing with nuts-and-bolts factory machines as is the case for today's blue-collar workers, so there won't be much room for mass employment there I'm afraid. The only solution would be to pour all that newly-created wealth and productivity from AI into entertainment, service, relations, recreations, etc, industries where productivity is meaningless and everything revolves around human experience and interaction, basically a modern-day version of bread and circuses to create work and meaning for millions (or billions) of people who don't rank among among the top 5% of the population. Basic/universal income will probably have to be instituted as one of the countermeasures against this job loss.
"The goal of the future is full unemployment, so we can play." - Arthur C. Clarke
I don't know if we'd like that.
That's fine, but with no work there would be no social mobility, so society would have to be something akin to communism. Wonder if the powerful will be willing to give up their edge.
I don't agree with Clarke.
Thank you Rober Langdon and kirsh for bringing me here
I love how he is hopeful at the end. "You are not late" is what we need to know in order to pursue so many even more vast territories!
Watch the Terminator series it doesn't end good
@@historysmysteriesunveiled8043 what an intellectual understanding of techonology!!!
3:43 Different types of intelligence
7:27 Second Industrial Revolution
10:09 Working with AI
1:46 People sleeping
We will be hearing a lot about AI and genetic engineering for now on. The more we have conversations about them the better because these technologies bring quite a lot of significant changes and risks.
Ai brings nothing good only bad.
Because online no information is safe so if everything is online even your information, your vulnerable to someone stealing it andAI only takes from existing information.
So it’s best job is to use what someone else wrote or said.
It’s not better
He is such a good speaker!
One of the best, and smartest TED talks yet delivered.
Really?? Have you seen any other ted talks 😂😂
There has been others.
1:48 guy with the cap on the right falls asleep. Well that was fast
It's TED. what did you expect?
or he's reading his smartphone
I love this kind of undying commitment. Because taking a nap is certainly more important that the fucking 4th glorious industrial revolution to which we are all active participants.
I didn't think there could be a boring video about AI. This video proved me wrong.
pepe thefrog I'm a Software Engineer... This kind of stuff is what I do for a living. I think I'm a bit interested you mong.
The talk wasn't so much about AI itself as it was about it's role in the future of humanity. It certainly is a very interesting projection, the coolest part will be seeing how the projection manifests itself in the real world (cybernetics, AI-powered peripherals, robot assistants, etc)
Agreed. The whole talk felt redundant, as i've heard all of it a thousand times before, and explained much better than this. Felt like your grandpa trying to tell you how amazing this new smartphone ting is.
It helped imagine what our future could look like with AI. But yeah if you already imagined that 1000 times, i can see how this would be boring.
I like this explanation. I feel like a lot of the comments here are being close-minded.
Well, he was more right than he could have imagined, seven years down the road. Except I don't buy that more jobs will be created.
"Robots will create more jobs for humans" -- tell that to the horses.
In terms of labour, we are the next thing after horses. Automation will kill most of the human jobs. Guys, you don't get it. You don't want to waste your time to provide for yourself. Humans shouldn't waste their time at routine day to day jobs. When we finally be free of that necessity, humanity will change dramatically. Instead of being forced to do whatever they have to do, people will do whatever they want. These new humans culturally will be as different from us, as european colonists differed from indigenous hunter-gatherers of Americas and Australia. It's a huge leap forward.
BRILLIANT!!
Hold on imma be right back, I'm going to try, though I don't think my horse understands english.
Ислам Хаупшев, I keep telling everyone what you say because I also believe it, but people seem to be in love with their ancient ways. Like if the indigenous hunter-gatherers would rather keep living in the jungle instead of moving into a modern flat where hot water comes instantly out from a tap, any food you can dream of can be ready to eat within an hour even in the middle of the night and you are absolutely safe from predators or poisonous animals. They somehow would say that they always valued the effort of walking two miles down the hill to get their water for the day and the problem nowadays is the youth, totally spoiled, which by the way is something that can be seen recorded in Ancient Greek writings, proving that this has always been the case.
phlogiston most humans don't like their jobs. They would rather do *anything* else.
"You'll be paid in the future by how well you work with these bots" - money will no longer be the incentive to work in the future, money will be retired, people do not need jobs or money, both will become accessible only to the intellectually superior, what all people need is ACCESS to the necessities of life, AI automation will provide an unprecedented abundance eliminating poverty forever.
Another great TED presentation. Kevin Kelly breaks down the future of AI quite well. Thank you.
Would be amazing to have AI as a friend. A good companion who is smarter and can always hold a good exchange of ideas.
People need to understand the difference between Virtual Intelligence and Artificial Intelligence
nEOs1255 yes teach as all-knowing being
"A Virtual Intelligence (VI) is a sophisticated program designed to make modern computer systems easier to use. They are not to be confused with artificial intelligences like the geth, as VIs are only utilised to assist the user and process data (although, like AIs, they can still get out of hand)." I googled it.
Alex Lee Does this unit have a soul?
Brendan Williams, does not compute.
Brendan Williams google it
Inspiring and promising.
Advanced AI should be contained, never be connected to the net, never be used on robots or else it would be the extinction of mankind. I think AI would be a big leap on different researches like cure for cancer and other technological advances. Imagine if you have a supreme artificially intelligent computer that you feed with all the world's data and then this computer can digest and process all these to produce conclusions. You can ask this computer big questions like how to seek immortality, how to solve traffic, how to solve climate changes, how to cure different diseases, how to travel in far distant space, how to have renewable energy sources, you can order it to produce different softwares. Imagine effortless research results with just one click of a button.
Um... Kevin Kelly is obviously one of the most intelligent people in the world, and I do respect him very much.
But aren't we at the fourth industrial revolution already?
Yass!!
THE ILLEGAL AI IS GONNA TAKE ER JERBS!
Der terk er jerbs!
der terk er jeeeeeeeeeerbs!
And let AI paid for the fire wall.
You stole my line, damnit.
Der k jerrrrrrr
Excellent. beautiful and more than that deep. Loved it.
Bring it on, I've been waiting since the 70's, so I'm ready and already using to an extent in some fashion.
Oh FFS. Im happy so many people comments on this show. Cognitive machines are the future. (Too many practical applications for them). YES it will bring change. But we owe to history. NOT to make the mistakes we did in the 1800s. 1. "Bith control." Fewer lives but BETTER lifes. 2. "Capital control" Consensus between the ones. Who MAKES value vs the ones that OWN it. 3. "Democractic control." Wishes and will for long time prosperity of the "People". 4. Education. For ALL. No matter income or background. Met a pedagogue/soldier who build a Leo 1 from scrap metal. He said he had to be both an electrician/engineer/welder and mechanic. BUT WHAT 1 MAN CAN DO. ANOTHER CAN DO! Very inspirational! The UK/US model wants to instrumetialize us. But humans dont work that way...
Kevin Kelly everybody! Making TED worth watching at least 13 mins at the time.
"Everything that was electrified, will be cognified". Beautiful.
Very intelligent presentation. It's fascinating this video has less views than TED's about green energy, when in reality AI will have a further reaching impact on both business & our personal lives over the next 50 years
This is just an amazing speech ... I just loved it ..... I'm a software engineer / developer .. into AI .... and I know now that this is the beginning .... thanks a lot!
For a ted talk, this one was fairly full of 'hot air'. It had no specifics. So if it is inevitable - what does that mean? telephone -> internet -> AI -> what next? Being inevitable should help us see that trend right?
how exactly does AI second Industrial revolution create jobs? How does it shape our lives inevitably?
All that the talk gives us is a general sense of this time in history. That future is inevitably unrecognisable.
If you know the present and some of the past you can look for a pattern relating all of the data together, then once you identify a pattern you can estimate future possibilities. My hypothesis is that the universe evolved in much the way that life on earth did, and humanity is evolving along the same trends. So with data from the beginning of the universe to now, we may be able to estimate the end of the universe. From all the data I have gathered (and in no way do I claim to know everything, I welcome critical challenging so that I may reevaluate and strengthen my theory) it seems the trend of everything from the beginning of everything we know to now has been the acceleration of complexification over time. If this is the case it might make sense that the "purpose" of humanity is to create a generation of machines that are more complex than us. Ones complex enough to perceive and shape the progression of the universal process in ways humanity is too simple to even comprehend.
I think this was great talk. He gave a very clear understanding and visualization of relationship between AI and Humans in future.
Fantastic, inspiring talk!
An actual good TED TALK!
Some unemployment is actually fabulous. Machines, robotics, and AI have caused vast unemployment among children in the USA.
Children were taken out of factory labor beginning in the 1830s and sent to public schools at community expense 9 months out of 12 between the ages of 7 and 14 rather than 3 or 4 months out of 12 until they were 10 (common 8n the 1700s).
In the 1900s, standard ages for schooling became 4 to 18 with 7 to 16 being required by state law.
There really are minds of unemployment that are wonderful.
The majority of people over 62 are unemloyed. Over the age of 50, people in the USA find it increasingly difficult to find an employer. More and more people in the USA who want to labor are having to become self employed or volunteer, if they want to labor. So far, that is a mixed blessing.
This wise man knows it. AI done right will not only liberate humans to focus on their passions and dreams (ART) but also bring about a new age of enlightenment by connecting the missing dots. What worries me is not AI but the free flow of information which must be our main platform.
one of the best talk of TED
Wonderful talk..
Thanks Sir..
In this insightful talk, Kevin Kelly informs us how humans can thrive working with
Artificial Intelligence in the near future. The future is going to be very exciting with the combination of AI and Blockchain kind of decentralized distributed ledgers going to drastically alter the way we think and do anything and everything. Highly recommended talk.
Thank you at last someone who takes the time to try to define intelligence in this AI talks!
Really interesting talk. I can't help but feeling that if you didn't know you needed something you simply don't need it. But then again he's arguing also that machines will allow us more time for human flourishing which would be very positive.
This guy makes sense. The people waxing rhapsodic abut blockchain technology sound like they're romancing a fantasy, but this guy makes a very sensible case for a world with AI.
Watch many times, such a futuristic talk.
More talks like this plz.
what a wonderful speaker!
Kevin Kelly = instant like.
I like the analogy of industrial evolution. The point is that we should learn to work with AI, just like how we learnt to use any tools in the past.
best AI ted talk ever.
Very interesting and inspiring point of view.
As with all discussions on this topic, take it with a grain of salt. That said, this was an interesting take and certainly worth discussing.
I forgot how to recharge my power armor... again. How do I do it? I really need help.
Siri?
yes ?
How do I recharge my power armour ??
I made a proof of concept VR 'game' using the Watson API where a bot greets you, learns your name, which you just say (she even got Inigo Montoya correct when I told her that she killed my father and should prepare to die), and the takes you on a tour through a smallish spaceship, and can answer some of the questions you might ask about it, like what fuel/propulsion mechanism it uses (a helium 3 powered successor to the Alcubierri drive), where you are (42 light days from Tau Centauri), what year it is (2393), and a few others. It wasn't super well done or fleshed out, but just talking naturally as a form of input, especially in VR, was incredible! But that's all thanks to IBM, for letting me use the system that's fighting cancer and generally making the world a better place, to make a crappy spaceship sim haha
We still had jobs after the industrial revolution because new ones opened up requiring more mental work. When AI can do that better than us there's no where else for them to come from. If there is inherent value in the way we think then there is value in making AI that can think that way as well only better and faster. Either we enhance our intelligence to their level technologically or we will be not just unemployed but unemployable. That's not even necessarily a terrible thing. Unemployment has only been bad when the work still needed to get done, this will be a very different case of there being no work left to do.
At 11:00 when he starts talking about "inefficiency" how science and innovation is "inefficient"... ai/robots can perform more test fail a lot faster and produce 100x the amount of art projects we can.
On top of that. When 1 robot learns something... they ALL learn it from a simple update. What happened to the horses it what will happen to the humans.
-Stephen AydtBot #6591
Good luck humans may the best race win
are we gonna be around too when this revolution happens? (or better said, after it succeeds?)
YES. I never believe anyone is actually "stupid" because everyone is intelligent in someway. I love hearing about this.
why does everyone think you are gonna loose your jobs? the slave owners in the roman empire enjoyed their lives quite a lot. Rome was very rich and civilised because of its use of slavery. now obviously that is morally wrong, but with robots as the modern equivalent could achieve a much higher quality of life. we may not even need jobs anymore.
Can't barrage Farrage probably because there is a limited value to a simple mind. A person with Downs syndrome cannot design a plane.
Can't barrage Farrage I'm positive to AI and I don't necessarily think there will be less jobs, just different jobs and that's what people worry about. How many nail salons where there 150 years ago? Humans are creative and will make up new jobs as we go.
My concern is that the AI developed is developed in a capitalist society and will only benefit the companies developing them and the biggest profits will only be given to a few people. This depends less on AI and more on how our politics handle it.
In theory if we shared all resources evenly we could have robots and AI do all the work for us and we could be free to do whatever. But is that really gonna happen? That sounds like the socialist idea that everybody only have to work 5 hours a day and have the rest of the day free. Yeah sure, if we all agree to share the profits equally, but humans don't work like that. We are motivated by some kind of progress forward/upward with our work and we only want to share it with those closest to us.
I think in theory jobs could become obsolete. In practice we will need more and more time to study in a world that gets more and more technically advanced and eventually work with more complex jobs than before.
+Can't barrage Farrage
It's more like "We will not need to exist anymore" If humans create an effective AI system that runs our jobs for us then of course it will be great and everything but you have to think of who really gets the profit that the AI's make and who doesn't get the profit. The "company" that set-up the AI to start working will have the full control of the profits the AI makes and there will be very few individuals who actually recieves the money that was supposed to be transferred to the workers bank accounts. Now every person who lost their jobs to these AI's will have no way to make money again when there's no jobs they can get, These people will become homeless and will be less cared about than the homeless people today are. They will just be viewed as small ants waiting to die by the people who have all the money and all the power because this world is run by greed.
Perhaps there will be someone super rich who will do everything he/she can to save all the unemployed people but that is HIGHLY unlikely because one way or another they will run out of money and will not be capable of saving anything.
Then there is also a huge risk that the AI's will be capable of learning itself about everything in the future and then some day it would become self conscious and question itself why it is making money and serving all these rich humans which it would then stop and eventually destroy humanity.
Ronas no, we aren't talking about conscious ai, we're talking about limited ai, like the stuff In your phone. They will do all the primary sector jobs and the tertiary sector jobs will grow as a result, as has been the trend for the past 300 years. Don't believe all the inflammatory crap you read online and see in movies. All it will mean is there will be more nail salons and more hairdressers
Exactly. These people want to go back in times where they plant their own food and stuff. Just face it! We human are inefficient and very clumsy! Self-driving car can erase more than 90% of accident and it doesn't even take into account the sometimes disturbing human emotion. Machine can produce more food, more energy, bring in more health, be more environmentally friendly, less mistakes, etc. We as human would have more time for our family and friends!
Best speech on future of AI
Naysayers for Industrial revolution could not prevent it. The ones who learned how to operate the machines flourished.
"Star Trek" here we go! :)
It is quite possible to make a bot that does science. Have the bot come up with several theories aiming for accuracy of prediction, simplicity, and difference from each other, then get the AI to find experiments to distinguish the theories. Working out the rules of an unknown game is a toy example from a simple universe.
one of the best talks
Hans Friedrich
Beqause it is the future.
Dan Brown 🥰
Dan Brown got me here
this was a great talk. this guy is pretty damn cool lol
"They will produce more jobs than they take away..."
Orion9191 lol
Sure keep believing that in some years human beings will be obsolete.
yeah, who is gonna clean all the robots ???
Duck dumb smart ppl Im not bored f-off robots that clean robots. Maybe one day we can become robots
Who said humans would be obsolete?
Singularity network, AGI is creating this and you can be a part of it by buying the AGI token
A necessary talk.
Animals work on Emotional Intelligence....
I love Kevin Kelly... we need that 7th Kingdom of Life !
Is there any correlation between animal sizes and nervous system sizes?
Is there any correlation between quantity of nervous system size and cell number?
So we can play? I’m not too sure but it sounds good 👌. We are definitely going to need that AI to re-invent the human beings so everything can start all over again.
I think it's the best thing that could happen for humans, as long as it isn't controlled by one group of people
just like I said "I think" no one knows, just go back 30 or 20 years and ask anyone about what he think of the internet
nice
this talk is only optimistic and predictive for those individuals who enjoy learning about learning, that is to say, enjoy thinking about how one thinks and believes things to be what/why they are..
if not, we will be learning the application of artificial intelligence to our own demise, as would a student who relies solely on a calculator to do arithmetic, rather than understanding the fundamental proofs that lay behind his calculator's answers..
The third point is like what Walter Isaacson say in The Innovators.
Great overview of how humans are different from AI.
I agree with the speaker that AI will start another industry revolution because it can be applied in all types of things. But it is not going to take over the world and not going to replace human intelligence, just another great tool, or new intelligence
he reminds me of Winston
Wow totally original idea
The points he's making don't map onto the development of A.I. A.I. will be able to create iterations of itself in very short spans of time that could easily outstrip human intelligence on a scale we can't even imagine. We have no idea what A.I. intelligence will be like, whether it will care about humans any more than we care about ants. He's imagining A.I. will stop evolving somehow because we might want it to.
How does one purchase AI? What does that even mean? Do you buy a general AI and apply it in a specific way?
We need a Universal Basic Income to cover those on the breadline who lose their jobs so that they can survive.
Interesting points. He goes against the general belief that this time automation is different, and most of the jobs will be lost to AI. Maybe he is talking about some new concept of job, related to activities that are not efficient, as he said. Maybe people will be involved in activities that have no utility, like someone who builds an entire city on an online game like Minecraft.
The past does not equal the future. Just because the first industrial revolution created new jobs doesnt mean the second one will do the same. Even so, as people we shouldn't try to stand in the way of progress. Everyone must just be dedicated to lifelong learning of new skills to remain relevant.
It's always fun to KK
It is never too late to predict the future...
It would be a third industrial revolution, there already have been two
+
Nope. 1st steam, 2nd electricity, 3rd Information systems, 4th AI/AR
FFS the "tools are not the ISSUE" HOW WE USE THEM IS. However. In a generous, enlighted, society. Its a GIFT. In a supressive, feudalistic and violent society. Its NOT. Thats the reason the upper class wants to control it.
He is just talking about ANI (Artificial Narrow Intelligence), which is the lowest level of AI, it can't think for itself, it just solves specific problems and isn't aware of what it is doing. The most disturbing one is the last (and apparently inevitable) step, which is the ASI (Artificial Super intelligence): it would be trillions of times ahead of us in any field, compared to the top professionals in each, including creativity and social skills, plus it would be self aware, meaning: it would know every task it is doing, in a holistic perspective. It would boost our technological progress like never seen in history by far. But eventually, we would just end up being an obstacle to ASI progress, they wouldn't need us for anything. For more info: waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
I thought this said A1, like steak sauce.
lol
AI could bring about a new form of life. Robots could 3D print themselves (and whatever they want) in the future, when AI gets more advanced. It would have to be started by humans, but after a certain point, robots could build themselves etc (if originally programmed by humans to do it). Then after a time the robots could do it all themselves and conquer the galaxy. A new life form. And maybe humans could have programed the robots to care for and look after humans (and the rest life) like pets, so the robots could build us cities and build more cities on the moon etc (in the future). In that situation, humans could do nothing and live in luxury. Food etc could be farmed by robots, everything could be done by robots and we just pursue our hobbies, games, parties etc. And in the distant future, the robots could mine the asteroids and bring back valuable stuff, and we could live in the asteroids, the moon, Mars etc. in luxury, made by the robots. If the robots had good "minds" (originally programmed by humans) and AI robots had a sense of drive, like we do, then the robots would "want" to do the cool stuff and just keep going after they build stuff for humans. So the robots "take over" but in a good way. But if humans originally programmed the robots to be nasty, however, then that's another story. lol
Origin by Dan Brown brought me here
I like that “consciousness free” driver
Not good. Sounds good, but not really.
Robert and Edmund brought me here.
Rewatching this after ChatGPT!!
And thus, the Geth from Mass Effect are born.
please please please. .. we need to translation Arbic🙏
I think AI would make a future utopia really if anything, I don't think anything would hard humans, we would program AI to do one thing literally, help humanity, just like asking it a question on how to help deal with situations, Literally would be made to take care of people
We'll be busy fixing everything
ai fs up..
Why would the AI never realize it doesn't need us?
skynet is close ! skynet is close haha
lol
They make those movies to prep you for this so you don't fight back
AI wouldnt just create a second revolution. it would create infinite revolutions
plot twist: he's a robot
hahahhha im crying from laughing man!!!!!!
Low key best comment
Jipson Productions
Nice.
Nice response dude! Good one!
James Mott
I thought it was a clever response!