Investing icon Stanley Druckenmiller sits down with Joe Kernen at CNBC's Delivering Alpha
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- čas přidán 19. 10. 2022
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#CNBC #DeliveringAlpha #investing
I don’t know how, but you’ve managed to package an unbiased analysis that is more entertaining than the sensationalized segment of economic and financial news. Thank you for your efforts to be the signal and not the noise. I understand that the economy is currently in a downturn and that we must wait for the stock market to recover in order to break even and make profit..
As hard as it may sound, you can plan for recession. If you’re working, find extra work and also get a financial advisor. Protect your deposits by having enough cash in short term fixed income, cut down your expenses, utilities and minimal insurance.
That’s why I make it a point to speak with a financial advisor before choosing any investments. I’ve been using one since the pandemic, using profits oriented tactics and minimizing risks as a buffer against inevitable downtrends. In addition they have access to insider knowledge and analysis, making failure virtually impossible for them. I’ve made about $800k working with John Desmond Heppolette my advisor for over three years now.
Your advisor really seem to know this stuff. I found his online-page when I google up his full names, read through his resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. I left him a note and booked a call session with him..
It’s unfortunate most people don’t have such information, I don’t really blame people who panic cos lack of information can be a big hurdle. I’ve been making more than $65k passively investing with John Desmond Heppolette, and I don’t have to do much work. It doesn’t matter if the market is crashing, I will always make good profit returns.
John Desmond Heppolette, really seem to know this stuff. I found his online-page by searching up his full names, read through his resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. I left him a note and booked a call session with him..
Can we have a Stanley hour every week? or at least every month? I like listening to someone who speaks honestly.
His time is too valuable for that
If life gives you lemon, you make lemonades, so at this point instead of waiting for stocks to crash or recovery, focus on how to profit off the current market, Bloomberg, WSJ, BBC business(just to mention a few) have been recording cases of folks averaging 350k in 12weeks, so there's money being moved around if you know where you're looking.
Exactly! I've been studying and researching a whole lot lately so I don't miss out on any opportunity.
It all boils down to technique, the downtrend leaves room to key in on the market and grow-substantially whether in the long or short run, it's only just easier to make profit when the market is green, a downtrend provides an equal high-yielding avenue if you have the requisite set of skills and knowledge, reason I've been using an investment-adviser to scale up in this hard time, only way I was able to raise upto 750K in the last 6months.
....I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging and I could really use some guide, but are they really that effective though?
@NaBir-rn5ex Mind if I ask you recommend this particular coach you use their service?
Been going through the comments ,thanks for sharing this update, I'll defo check it out 👍❤
So much truth. Shocking he’s allowed on CNBC
A legend of our time .. respect. Clear crisp thoughtful and not sidestepping direct questions ..
1:35 Fed was taking unbelievable risks
1:44 Inflation was 1.7% and Fed was buying $120 billion in bonds a month (post-vaccine)
2:07 Fed created wildest asset bubble I've ever seen
2:13 The worst economies happen post-asset bubbles, such as in the 1930s here and post 1989 in Japan
2:29 Fed did $2 trillion in QE after vaccines plus fiscal stimulus (more than Financial Crisis)
3:19 The risk-reward bet the Fed made was about 40-to-1 (willing to lose 40 just to gain 1)
5:41 Ridiculous theory of "transitory" after $5 trillion in stimulus and $5 trillion QE plus running down TGA account for another $1 trillion in stimulus
6:24 For 9 or 10 months the Fed just sat there (after noticing inflation moving higher) and bought $120 billion in bonds
8:52 The government can't spend $5 trillion if they don't print it
9:38 We've had $30 trillion in QE during the past 10 years
10:41 You can't cure inflation with inflationary acts such as buying bonds
11:47 If you bought the Dow in 1929 you would've broken even in 1954, and in 1966 Dow was back to the same level in 1982
12:49 Stock market used to be 50% of GDP, now it's 150% but down from 225%. 5 years yielded 15% and stocks were 8x depressed earnings -- today we're at 18x inflated earnings
13:39 The last 10 years of the bull market was $30 trillion in QE plus 0 rates
14:37 We've had a hurricane behind us for 30 or 40 years
14:42 My forecast is the Dow won't be much higher 10 years from today
15:59 If you use the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) estimate of rates at 3.8%, which I think is too optimistic, by 2027 the interest expense alone on the debt eats all healthcare spending, by 2047 it eats all discretionary spending, and by 2049 it eats all social security
16:26 We're getting to the point where the interest expense on the debt is so high it eats up our ability to service the next generation and possibly not even the current one
17:22 I'll be stunned if we don't have a recession sometime in 2023
18:00 We've been running down the SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) -- it's now below 1984 levels even though oil consumption is higher
18:50 Our central case is a hard landing by the end of 2023
19:27 I'm wildly bullish on medical advances -- cancer and neuro-progress
19:38 We better not live forever because our kids won't have any money from paying our social security
20:05 My first boss in Pittsburgh in 1976 said, Stanley, buy the market two years before the general election and sell it on the general election, because they always rig things to be good in the election year
20:23 We had major bottoms in '78, '82, '86, '90, '94, '98, '02, not so much in '06
20:52 Maybe we'll get a crisis that doesn't destroy us but brings us together
21:26 As gloomy as I am, I'm open to something really great happening out of nowhere
21:41 1982 was a terrible recession but we ended up having 20 years of prosperity after that
23:46 The risk-reward of owning assets doesn't make a lot of sense, but I'm also not advocating going short
23:54 The greatest short seller ever, Jesse Livermore (1877-1940), made $100 million in 1929 and went bankrupt in 1936 and killed himself (in 1940)
24:08 I don't think you need to short -- just side-step it
24:36 I don't own bitcoin
Bless you.
Good
Thank you,
Have this at the back of your mind. there are good days and there are bad days it’s a zero sum game,
However always follow the tips ,save and invest wisely and make sure to diversify investments so when another is down the other is up. you can do so by getting an experienced firm whose platform has diverse investment choices to choose from. By doing this you give little room for regrets and perhaps gain more.
Great tips, Generally diversification is a kind factor Don’t put your eggs in one basket. pragmatically I have been into all of this for some time,though I won’t say I have made or lost some fortune. Do you mind recommending a firm whose platform has diverse investing choices? Quite rare I anticipate your response.
Nobody can become financially successful overnight. They put in background work but we tend to see the finished part. Fear is a dangerous component, hindering us from taking bold steps we need in other to reach our goals. you have to contend with inflation, recession, decisions from the Feds and all. I was able to increase my portfolio by $289k in months. You have to seek for help in the right places.
I think it's not always about fear, Sometimes realistic factors discourage people from reaching their goals in life. For instance, I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value
This is the problem! Most times people with little or no knowledge of the stock market try investing by themselves. It once happened to me, then I learned my lesson and contacted a US-based finance consultant by name Catherine Morrison Evans and everything changed. In in the first quarter of this year i made $370k and counting.
@@hermanramos7092 Hello there, please how do i find the lady you just mentioned?
@@hermanramos7092 Hello there, please how do i find the lady you just mentioned?
@@kenanporubsky2122she was Wealth Manager for First Republic Bank. Not sure what happened to her.
This guy must have slipped through the attendees' list. Way too smart for CNBC
Correct, someone f'd up
Great job Joe and respect to Mr Druckenmiller.
Thank you Stan Druckenmiller
Druckenmiller is a living legend
i think this is one of the smarting pro in the world; wish he speaks on a regular basis. thanks for the interview
I once worked at Druckenmiller at his Greenwich estate. I bidded $2400 to spray for ticks. I lost to someone who picked a $10,000 number. Heard later they didn’t take me seriously. My boss thought I was being too aggressive at our number. Apparently not
Awsome interview! Very informative, please have Stanley on again!
Come on man
Better put the event date in the description so audience can know when it happened: 28 Sep 2022
Excellent discussion. Kudos to Stanley Druckenmiller and CNBC's Joe Kernen.
Stan is an outstanding guy you can learn a lot from.
Love it, there so much you can learn and think about it
so good
when was this recorded?
YES
The only way to stop the insanity of the Federal Government's monetary and fiscal policy is to establish term limits for the Senate and House - 6 year term max and no relatives can serve. President, same.
Love the idea but never going to happen.
That's just a beginning but you need to start somewhere.
He looks like somebody who knows a lot and is rational
He's one of the greatest global Macro Hedge fund managers of all time, proper legend!!
@@andrewwamusembi7027 greatest
Joe is the 👌 best,asks hard questions on cnbc .
Stan is by far the greatest #speculator ever! Oozing #wisdom from a living #legend
Playback at 1.5x and they actually speak at normal pace…save lots of time in the process!
I owe you man! Thank you!
Ha ha
1.25x is better but thanks. you're awesome!
1.5x makes me jittery
great interview.
Fantastic!
Daumen hoch, wer vom Marktgeflüster Podcast kommt 👌🏼😂
That election cycle strat is actually pretty solid tbh
Inflation hits people a lot harder than a crashing stock or housing market as it directly affects people's cost of living that people immediately feel the impact of. It's not surprising negative market sentiment is so high now. We really need help to survive in this Economy. The fin-Market;s have underperformed the U.S. economy as fear of inflation hammers the prices of stock;s and bonds. My portfoliio of $250k is down to $192k any recommendation;s to scale up my return;s during this crash will be highly appreciated.
You have to get a financial-advisor to aid you diversify your portfolios to include commodities, inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, as opposed to growth stocks where valuations were based on future potential earnings.
I agree, my proffit have been quite consistent, regardless of market situation, I got in early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2020 this time with guidance from a brokerage-adviser. I found her on a CNBc interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterwards. long story short, its been two years now and I’ve gained over $850k following guidance from my inveestment adviser.
@@erichkraetz2622 Please can you leave the info of your invstment adviser here? I overheard someone talking about how a couple made $200k during this red season. I need such luck lol
@@alexyoung3126 INGRID CECILIA RAAD is the brokerage-adviser. She has been of great help and her tutelage has brought me to a higher understanding of proffit generation. You can look up her name on the net for her page and reach out. Understands the job perfectly.
Sell covered call and take in a premium, IF your holdings are not down to much. May have to sell them a year out.
If the chart of your holdings looks broken, simply sell and take your pain now. You’ll thank me later.
A lot of people are in Hope mode right now, and they were gonna be hoping for at least a decade 😂
Always worth listening to multiple times.
if stanley did more press like this, the federal reserve would have to stop obviously screwing around with everyone's money.
Wouldn't have had any impact at all on Bernanke or Yellen. A more arrogant duo there has never been. Their hubris exceeded only by the breathtaking level of incompetence and disaster left in the wake of their tenures. Yellen is STILL hard at work trying to drive a CBDC and MMT policies that would literally be the death of democracy and free markets. She is not just a dim bulb, she's an extremely dangerous dim bulb.
👏👏👏
GOAT
FED: Federal Reverse Board
ECB: European clueless Bank
BTC: PlanB
Easy to tell who is the expert practitioner versus the tv guy
Stanley needs to be brought into the admin. The absolute lunacy of the current admin has got to stop. Failure at every level, EVERY!
I was thinking that also
They Fed are not idiots. They are doing exactly what they set out to do. They are doing what's best for their rulers. What's bad for us Is good for them.
The Fed never provoked for a war in Ukraine right after a pandemic lockdown. Stan skipped the 7% inflationary cost that taxpayers sponsored on billions of printing for Pentagon shareholders.
14:50 holy 💩
He actually bought up BOOM/BUST cycles and asset inflation, and I get comments deleted for bringing them up.
I am disappointed that he didn't bring up GLASS STEAGALL repeal.
Google censorship
Gotta love Stan D. A 180 degree divergence in wisdom and intelligence from the maestro (Dr G), the Bernank, dopey Yellen and so very clueless Powell. Thank you so much, Stan, for having the COURAGE to say very clearly what most of us (excepting PhD econ and CNBC'ers) knew and understood.
In the recent economic situation,one thing that has kept me and my family moving is the step I took last year.. Which is "making the right decision in my investment"..By the way thanks to Mr Chris Wayne. He's been the one leading me to financial freedom
Crypto trading is the best investment anyone could get into. As it could make you rich in a blink of an eye.
I've always wanted to trade crypto but got confused with the fluctuations in price
I think trading is easier with proper guidance, especially from a professional it really helps reduce the chances of running into losses. All thanks to Mr Chris Wayne He changed my life, I was able to pay off my mortgage
Wow I know Mr Chris Wayne. I met him at a conference in carlifornia 2019 where he introduced us his business strategy, he helped me cover my student loans
I also trade with Mr Chris Wayne, and i must say he makes money making seem a whole lot easier right now I'm a single parent and i pay the bills comfortably since i met Chris Wayne he's absolutely amazing and I'd recommend him for any novice in crypto.
Great video, very insightful and appreciate all the information delivered from this video. I think most importantly for investors right now is to remain calm and be long on investments. The U.S. is resilient and will ultimately be back on the come up in due time... Dividend growth investing will be ideal for now...
I think the base case has to be that we don't know if US will come back in due time; that depends on a number of factors....public policy, innovation, luck, etc.
Great info!
And the market still thinks we are on our next bull run starting with today.
And they were right!
This guy is super genius! The 🎶 to my 👂
So how do we position our investments in view of these comments?
Sell Dow, Nasdaq and S & P futures and let market go down another 25% + from Fridays 12/16 close.
This guy is on a farewell tour or something. I hope not but so many interviews.
What do you mean? He's sick or something? I noticed his hands are shaking
@@ilarivaisanen That was my thinking but I hope not.
Everyone is on their way out. He’s an old man, so he’ll get his dirt nap much sooner that a young’n.
yes he's pale and speech is slowed, but maybe just under the weather. Attending big event takes more energy for older
Geez, just say it like you mean it, Stan.
8'15'' funny (and true0 part: do you think the UK unions are gonna come up in the spring and negotiate "oh well the 5x5 fwd inflation is 2.3% so ye i'll take that ."
Drunkenmiller is smart
where does all that interest expense go? not back into the production? could it be a blind hole, a black star, that nobody references.
Partially to other countries partially to citizens around the world that hold bonds partially to various funds and some fraction to some companies that chose to hold bonds. But it doesn't really go anywhere. It's destroyed. They first spent money they didn't have, so the money is gone. This goes for both the government and the companies and a lot of indebted private individuals. Now they have to pay it back at a higher interest rate. Since the interest rate is lower than inflation the people who lend the money in the first place also lost. In the end its a negative sum. That's how printing money works. It's inefficient. It destroys wealth. It's the same as overtaxation. Overtaxation can take a wealthy nation and completely shatter its economy and destroy everything. Debt at zero interest rates is extremely destructive. It does not encourage careful and efficient capital allocation. It also comes with another problem. capital and labor makes the production. if you oversupply capital the marginal return for each dollar gets lower and lower. Then once it becomes time to pay up you suddenly constrain the economy on capital, labor then also gets affected, both capital and labor get reduced. The damage for paying back each dollar is now marginally increasing. This imbalance is long term economically destructive.
Brilliant!
13:00
16:00
Start here it’s terrifying!
The legend!
QT and QE….quantitative rightening and easing?
Love when billionaires make the case for taxing them. Thanks Stanley!
@@doctorpoopypantz6003 The two largest line items in the government expenditure are healthcare (social security) and defense. Healthcare is expensive because of run away costs (due to collusion between special interest groups and government, not because of "socialism"). Defense, because America is an empire. Running an empire is expensive. So control your costs and stop being an empire, it'll be cheaper to run your country.
Love when poor people get mad at rich people
20:08
I'M NEW TO BTC AND I'VE BEEN MAKING LOSSES TRYING TO MAKE PROFIT MYSELF IN TRADING...I THOUGHT TRADING ON DEMO ACCOUNT IS JUST LIKE TRADING THE REAL MARKET... CAN ANYONE HELP ME OUT OR AT LEAST ADVICE ME ON WHAT TO DO?
Trading with an expert Mrs Isabella Patricia is the best strategy for newbies and busy investors who have little or no time to mention trade.
@@endah6940 Wow I'm just shocked someone mentioned expert Mrs Isabella Patricia I thought I'm the only one trading with her.
I stumbled upon one of her clients testimonies and decided to try her out...I'm Expecting my third cashout in 2days
I think I'm blessed because if not I wouldn't have met someone who is as spectacular as expert Mrs Isabella Patricia .
Her success stories is everywhere.
honestly
I love Stanley Druckenmiller. He is so cool and wise and rational.
Stanley get your own CZcams channel.
unfortunately it's one of the last things he'd do.
I have doubts that the FED has the guts to fight the dragon of Inflation to the end in the first round, I rather think there will be several rounds of fighting as the debt bubble realistically doesn’t allow a straightforward knock-out as it will most likely kill the bystanders too.
I wouldn't bet against it.
J/ on /David
Alpha.
It would have been nice to have had one of the cabal e.g. Yellen on the stage with them.
You mean Yoda 😂
The Fed was not wrong....everything is deliberate. They needed to get off zero interest rate policy and they couldn't achieve it with the current disinflationary tech back drop. So they fed us a pandemic and excessively printed their way out, intentionally
Stan Druckenmiller = 15K views. A random Tiktok video = 1M views. Make your conclusion.
So true
“How did this happen? I never saw this coming, I was busy.”
“What were you doing?”
I was too busy, watching tic-tok videos and drinking Starbucks.” 🤪
Well that's the proportion of financially educated and interested people vs the rest
Most people are just trying to live their lives. They shouldn’t have to worry about finance, and inflation, etc.
The GOAT 🐐
Styler digo ayer deposite no yegue tripleynpueto
Druckenmiller is running circles around Kernen's brain
Kernen knows, kernen doesnt have a big ego
Can’t stand joe kernen but love Stanley Druckenmiller. Very glad that Kernen didnt interrupt him every third word like he normally does with his guests
He doesn't toe the Sorkin, Lester Holt msnbc line thats for sure
How does Joe Shmoe stay on the air?
Better than that sorkin dork
The Dow will probably be lower.
Whoa, his central theory is that Dow will be just about the same in 10 years as it is today!
It has happened before and will again. When govt controls the economy you'd better be prepared for the worst.
Medicine doesn't always taste good going down. Best to know when a hurricane is coming your way.
I've got a grade 8 education but I think of Putin as the straw that broke the camel's back.
I have airbnb properties and I bought one cash yesterday. Now that may be a bad move as far as the real estate value but it may be better than holding cash.
Also it can earn me over 3000.00 per month in income.
All that said, I have 110,000 sitting in shares of a country club which are more liquid and a small borrowing account.
The federal govt is like a person mortgaged to the hilt and maxed out on credit cards with empty houses that need work.... Then Putin's war came.. Europe is no better
Stan owns Palantir
He got in pre - ipo
Money machine
30 years back, goods and services available for public consumption is too narrow and We cannot compare with the world right now. When too many things are available for consumption, it creates broad inflation. When consumption goes down it hurts so many sectors because we have too much available for consumption. It may happen or it may not, but money supply can induce crazy consumer behavior..
The emperor has no clothes …..
When he says not holding financials assets , does he mean even short term bonds ?
Medical related stocks anyone?
Compass pathways, TGTX
He was a little late on the call, interest expense is now just about above all defensive spending.
anybody that makes predictions on 2024 is nuts.
We’ll be okay because we will be dead”. Wow 😮. Older people have ruined the future of the younger people. So sad.
Trump threatened Powell and Powell caved.
Great point.
Trump also said he wanted to reinstate GLASS STEAGALL and then backed off because he realized the asset markets would deflate.
There's a difference of opinion about what constitutes wealth.
Actual business verses financial manipulation.
If world trade routes are continuing to be disrupted, production has to be increased in our economic sphere.
Joe Kernen is disoriented by Stanley's responses.
I’m no longer waiting for the GRANT LOAN because I earn $48,700 every 10 days recently
I’m enjoying working under a platform that brings good return in life . I’ve been making my weekly returns without stress all in crypto currency
That’s right, I think the best way is to invest with a professional, at least it saves the trauma of too much losses. This just surprised me because I also invest with Mrs Jane Morgan
It’s four months now I started investing with her and it has been a good experience
Thanks buddy for her info, I’ll contact her right away 😊
Trust me , she’s awesome! She has managed my investment so well and my weekly returns mind blowing.
Stanley whole bit at 12:40ish about how terrible Joe Biden and this party is, so spot on correct. Stanley should be on all the time but he’s too intelligent for this Tv bs.
To decrease inflation, governments should stop billionaires from spending so much. Tax the hell out of luxury goods.
You win the award for most idiotic comment here.
I hope they provided barf bags for the attendees.
Is the guy on the left orange man’s brother?
😂
No. He's the one sleeping with your mother.
Despite the economic downturn, I'm happy ☺️. I have been earning $60,200 returns from my $10,000 investment every 13 days
This must be an investment with Mrs Morgan
She helped me get back what I lost while trying to trade.
Wow, I'm surprised someone mentioned that expert Mrs Morgan thought I was the only one trading with her.
I also trade with her and earn $10,600 a week. My whole family traded with him and made a profit.
I will recommend the expert mrs Morgan to anyone who wants to invest in the Forex / Crypto trade, the strategy works for me. I make good profits from Bitcoin trade
good grief, talk about a cold glass of water - all these old farts Granthum, this guy, Dalio, all bitter billionaires..give it a rest, smiley.
Drunkonmiller is full of it. When Trump was president he couldn't wait for the Biden presidency, now he's complaining about Biden.
How is criticizing fuck ups dishonest? He disagreed with the fed last year and now he's on board with them and hopes they don't flinch at growing unemployment. It's not like he said he would be loyal to a specific president
Not everyone believes you have to be a tribal apologist for either one party or the other. Some of us are independent-minded, non-partisan, and intellectually honest. Druckenmiller's exactly that. When it comes to both fiscal and monetary policy, both Trump and Biden administrations have been reprehensible, and the people running their administrations have been embarrassingly incompetent. Between Mnuchin and Yellen, you'd be hard-pressed to find a worse back-to-back duo of Treasury Secretaries in the history of the country.
Spot on. Time for him and Biden to find a nursing home. It’s time and overdue
He hoped for something better but Brandon (FJB LGB) simply continued a spending on steroids and made it even worse.
Trump was/is a liability for America
No, no, no, I think I'm going to listen to Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel instead.
Siegel is a shill
@@bleacherz7503 Amazing that Wharton has kept him on faculty. Every time he appears on TV with his hysteria and babble he devalues that brand of an otherwise great school.
Will see whether any of his doom and gloom forecast come true in 2023 or the following years. Stan is from another era and that era is coming to a close, good riddance. Stock market returns are not all that matters in an economy. Stan reversal of the trends as band developments when in fact they are good for the 80% of the people who do not speculate in stocks. Offshoring manufacturing was traumatic for many regions in the US, so bringing plants back is good for the country. Monopolies are good for stock market investors but bad for most people. So we need to find a balance between stock returns and a good living and prospects for the largest number of people. Someone like Stan should realize that you can't take it with you.
He doesn't control anything. He analyses and uses that to try and get an edge and he has been fantastically successful and has helped many people.
You're being an incoherent blowhard.
TLDW: TAX THE RICH
I used to like Drunkenmiller. Blaming union americans who REALLY just want a LIVING wage!!!!. 👎 💩
He's not blaming them and you know it. He's criticizing a stupid deal pushed by a dumb stupid corrupt cadaver.
LGB FJB
He’s not blaming them. He’s taking about wage growth feeding inflation and used the union as an example.