Reventure Consulting Housing Data App - Is It Accurate?
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- čas přidán 9. 09. 2024
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Reventure has been calling a crash for 4 years now. I wouldn't put much faith
to what he says
@@Dr.BatmanPhD if you can’t have your mortgage be less than 30% of your take home pay, avoid a new house like the plague. Doesn’t matter what anyone says, buying due to fear of even higher prices later on is a sure way to end up house poor
The only data that matter is the sales price. I think that guy kept looking at something that doesn't matter,
@@eile4219yeah it doesn't matter that sales have plummeted and many people aren't getting those prices
@@EJleon96If you know you're gonna keep making more money, over 30% of takehome is fine. My parents started at almost 60% of take home in the mid-1990s. 10 years later, it was like 25% 5 years after that it was less than 20% now they days it is less than 5% of their retirement income and it will be paid off next year.
@@aviationnerd7806 that’s fine, if people wanna risk it go ahead. At that point you’re assuming you will continue to make more money and that life won’t happen and won’t bring you any surprises along the way. Those are two things that are never guaranteed
Him and Michael Bordenaro are calling a crash for years. It is all they do being negative all the time to get clicks. Fear sells.
same with the YT guy from Santa Barbra calif Scott Walters every one drank the cool aide , get ready. il see you at the end of the video
Exactly
Yeah, and Michael Burry shorted the Housing Market years before it actually crashed despite being laughed at by the banks, and hated amongst his clients. He ended up being right. Understand that the economy is doing horrible, there's an unaffordability crisis, and a lot of Consumer debt, with a high rate of inflation. It's alarming. Wouldn't be surprised if it all collapses after the Election around Spring of 2025. However, I'm projecting 2026 to allow the pain of the Commercial Real Estate Rate Adjustments from 3-4% to 7-8% to kick in and see how Banks react when investors turn in the keys to their properties.
He’s click bait
2025
I’m surprised that more people do not call out reventure consulting for bad predictions. He has called for a crash every year since 2021.
Most of the Reventure viewers simply don't know any better. A lot of them are unbalanced, assetless, don't make much money, and are bitter about not being able to get out of renting a one bedroom apartment; paying higher rent since '20 and having priced themselves out of the condo market. They probably talk at work about how the world is coming to an end to coworkers. Well informed individuals who have been the housing market for a long time and have weathered downturns, probably have better things to do with their time than watch Nick or Real Estate Mindset (I've been a homeowner off and on for 18 years). Beware of anybody posting videos with burning buildings in the background and dramatic words like "40% drop" or "depression" or "crash". I think those types of videos are more about getting clicks and making money off of ads, than helping homebuyers.
Many places peaked in price in May 2022, so how exactly has he been wrong "for four years"? That the crash is happening is slow motion (and there are good reasons why that's happening) doesn't make him wrong. If next February Phoenix passes above the 2022 peak, then I'll join the chorus of him being wrong.
@@CaptainCaveman1170 If you go back and look at Reventure Consulting videos, he has been calling for a real estate crash since April 2021. He continues to pump out videos claiming 40-50% crash in value, sometimes more. Median home price at the time was 355,000, with an average mortgage interest rate of 4.7 per the St Louis FED. Since then home prices peaked at 442,000, before coming back down to 412,000 this past quarter, with interest rates at 6.46. If anyone listened to Reventure Consulting when they started saying the sky is falling, and delayed buying a house due to belief the market would collapse, those individuals are much worse off at this point in time. The decline in home prices from the peak is nowhere near the 40-50% that he claimed would occur. I wish he would actually address that he was wrong in 2021 and 2022. I wish that he would actually address that the correction in home prices is at this point in time is 10%, and nowhere near the 40-50% he was claiming. There doesn't appear to be any introspection about what he said that was wrong or what he missed. It appears that he misled many potential homebuyers, and there has never been a mea culpa.
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Strayer
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
You trade with Natalie Strayer too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
YES!!! That's exactly her name (Natalie Strayer) so many people have recommended highly about her and am just starting with her from Brisbane Australia🇦🇺
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
Her good reputation already speaks for her .I’m also one of the beneficiary of Natalie Strayer. So happy I gave it a trial after being skeptic of the process.
If his "app" was actually any good he would be using it himself to be getting rich in real estate instead of renting a one bedroom apartment in nashville. If the "app" was any good, he wouldn't be so spectacularly wrong with every single "prediction" the last three years.
Exactly. 👍
LMAO
If everything was overvalued, then how can he make money on the "short" side? Come on. The grand old opry is over for real-estate
Javier, realtors never say its a bad time to buy.
I think Nick’s thumbnails are clickbait, but the content of his videos is less so. As Javier says RE is HIGHLY dependent on location! I’m in Central FL and the market reflects some of what Nick has said. if rates remain high and unemployment continues to rise I wouldn’t be surprised at “crash” territory (defining it as at least 20% drop in median home prices from the peak). At least in Volusia County, FL
Thank you for sharing. Financial education is crucial today to show incredible resilience and discipline in the volatile market, masterfully balancing strategy and insight for success. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.1BTC to a decent 15B TC in the space of a few weeks... I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..
It was quite challenging to understand the different trends on my own until i found out about Wilburn. Trading made easy.
The bold guy ALWAYS saying its the end of the world ...for years now 😂😂😂
He has been saying that the market is going to crash since 2020. The house I bought back then has gone up by $400,000. 😂
So what? A home is a place to live. Why buy a home only to worry about "equity"? Unless you want to sell and rent then you arent really ahead.
@@matthewphillips5483 NVM that brainchild. That supposed 400k is unrealized only realized if it can be cashed out. If no one pays that xtra 400k wth is the point on claiming it's worth that additional 400k. Delusion, hope. dream, who knows.
Greaaat @johns1367 pat yourself on the back. So did you sell your house again, to capitalize on those 'crazy gains?' How did your property taxes fare? 😵💫
@@emberscott huh? We purchased our home for $400,000 and can sell for $800,000. Four of our neighbors sold for that in recent weeks. It is not realized gains until I sell and it might not be $400,000 in gains when I do actually sell. It might be worth more. All I was trying to show was that his prediction that the market is crashing has not been true and is not true.
@@matthewphillips5483 really? That equity will come in handy in my retirement when I will be able to rent and live off the equity. You guys make no sense…
I think for the price cuts the app compares month to month. So April 2024 is higher than anything until April of 2017.
Also what’s nice about the reventure app is that the value in it is as an aggregator of other information. They have no horse in the game on whether housing goes up or down whereas someone like Redfin does.
This^ to be fair… reventure is 100% guilty of telling a slanted data story as well. You have to compare apples to apples. Javi called this out referencing the peaks at the beginning of the video and then ignored it when looking at the data insights 😂
He always mentions that each market is different and to look at it each specific zip code individually.
He also thinks the sky is falling
@@leeroyjenkins3677no he doesn’t. he says which markets to look out for
Yet, Nick himself deliberately presents the worst case in every state (like Austin), then proclaims "people are leaving TX and FL, and it's only a matter of time before the whole thing falls like a house of cards". Those two states are still gaining people the most out of any of them. That's how clueless this guy is. His app does have some value and is worth the $4.95, but I have no use for him apart from that. Suppose commercial real estate and apartments really do decline? This is nothing new. It's not a reason to get out of it. Most of the investors are long haul people who are prepared to withstand the downturns. Mortgage rates had gone to 23% in the early eighties, and that hadn't permanently driven away real estate investment. They held on, knowing things would improve in coming years, and they had.
Are you talking about when nick took a "break" from youtube? Because i can guarantee you he has NEVER made 60k a month on youtube. Not even shelby church made that much and she has triple the subscribers. Incidentally both Nick and shelbys views are waaaaaay down from corona days along with graham stephan. Seems like the most lucrative channels now are crit frinker and nerdrotic pitch meeting, etc, pop culture escapist type stuff. But lets face it nearly ever channel had a certain shelf life.
My dude, I’m seeing the screen shot right now in front of me. It says $57k, so you’re right it’s not $60k
@JavyVidana @ Sounds like one good month during his very short peak. He ain't making nothing like that now with his current views Not even close.
@JavyVidana His engagements are waaaaaay down from that one peak month dude. He's making 12k-15k a month now tops. Even lower after taxes. Which is why he's always trying to pump his worthless "app" before his channel.completely circles the drain. People are clearly getting tired of his shtick.
That guy has been calling a crash for 4 years. It’s BS clickbait, and it works. His followers believed him and lost out on once in a lifetime gains and the lowest interest rates we’ll ever see. I actually feel sorry for them.
😂 insane gains= insane property tax and insurance
Why would you feel sorry for them? Owning a home is a money pit.
@@matthewphillips5483Average home owner net worth 400k. Average renter net worth- 10k.
Try again.
I don’t feel sorry for them at all. They waited with bad intentions. They thought a lot of people were going to suffer financially and loose their homes. They waited for people to foreclose so they could “take advantage” of them. It didn’t happen the way they wanted and things got more expensive. I can’t imagine feeling sorry for that crowd. They deserve to keep paying their expensive rents.
@@Francisco-po1cf not necessarily, waiting for a market correction doesn’t mean you wish for people’s downfall. It is just an inevitable side effect if it ever happens.
I think Altos does a great job showing real estate data. They're also seeing that inventory is finally catching up to four years ago. I think reventure could be right because of how many people got in over their heads from buying over valued houses thinking the Fed would lower rates without their being an economic crisis. They were fools.
Half off for Phoenix might be a bit much, but 40% from peak sounds very reasonable/likely to me. I can already see houses in Maricopa and Buckeye that are 20% off their 2022 FOMO peaks, and that's with NO recession, and very solid employment numbers.
He really talks about how the housing market is not sustainable at the level it’s currently. He also points out that a market correction is needed because salaries are not keeping up with current home prices. He has been saying the market will crash but also points out manipulation of the market by corporations and the government is what’s keeping things together
Is that a nice way of saying he has been wrong about everything?
@@jacinedelarosa6302 definitely not saying he has been correct with everything but I can see where he is going with the overall picture
That dude has been on the sky is falling kick since he came on CZcams...his spewing hopes and dreams has gotten old!
Please don't believe anyone that says housing market crash is coming. I audit commercial banks. Mortgage loans are at all time low risk of defaulting. CRE loans especially office buildings are at super high risk of defaulting due to remote works.
Nothing riskier than a loan written on $1.5MM home that was just $500K just 2-3 years ago.
This entire market is a speculator driven Ponzi scheme
Which mortage loans? Pre 2020? I'm sure you're right. 2023-24? I imagine there is going to be serious trouble in the coming 18 months.
@@matthewphillips5483The 2023-2023 buyers who bought it because they have recession proof jobs like law enforcement or anything government. Working in education, the medical field, etc. Will be fine. The rest that bought in 2023-2024 that will lose their job will be screwed though. Not enough of them to cause a housing crash, though
@@aviationnerd7806 "If your neighbor loses his job, it's a recession. If you lose your job, it's a depression."
Love you man
Finally someone did this video to back up that the ring leader of housing crash is entertaining but when it comes to facts it doesn't pass a fact check
Thanks buddy
I'm not a fan of Reventure Consulting but I believe his statement is correct but it's a play on words. He says, it's the highest it's been since, not higher or as high as 2017. So what he's saying is correct. For example if the days on market were 100 in 2017 and today it's 99 then it is in fact the highest since 2017 as long as there was no other periods of time since 2017 where the days on market reached 99. It's all hyperbole on his part for the sake of dramatics but I believe a true statement none the less.
Guy is a fear monger.
Yeah, brah, everything is fine. Houses will keep going up 40% every year. If you buy a 1 bedroom home in downtown Detroit today, in 3 years you'll be Elon Musk. Trust me, I'm a realtor.
Are you looking at price adjustments and considering price increases vs price decreases? Are you sure you’re aligning to reventures variable of changes vs reductions?
He’s clout chasing, he wants clicks
Thank you for the comparison. I enjoyed this content. More please!
Price cuts and price changes are two completely different data points.
Price cut % is probably the number of cut divided by number of listings. The comparison was not correct.
But it doesn’t mean that the reventure numbers are right…
Reminds me of people who have been saying the market is gonna crash 5 years ago
I think for the % of price cut it possibly means the average % of cut from the home value not the number of price cuts that happened in a certain period of time.
Thanks Javier. My son is looking to buy a house and his realtor drew a contract that says : buyer agrees to pay Broker $995.00 for the flat fee portion of brokers compensation in addition to 3% commission. I have never heard of this. What do you think?? Any help will be appreciated.
The rent is too damn high!
That Magic card is a good one
Does anyone believe agents properly document the details of the financial transaction.. concession ect....
That fool is such a conman...saying a crash is gonna happen for years now and all his data is manipulated....that guy from miami and the guy in a suit too can't remember his name tho
michael bordenaro is the Miami guy right?
@@polo5for109 ya I think so
@@polo5for109lol he bought a condo while telling people to wait.
I don’t have faith in him. He’s clickbait.
The data shows home owners are currently in a very strong position. They arnt over leveraged/comfortable making their payments. Defaults are on the rise only compared to the pandemic (we can blame pandemic policies for the dip) but far below historic lows. The Phoenix market is over valued by about 30% if you factor in all this inflation but we also have a deficit of houses, something insane like 2 buyers for every 1 seller even at current prices. If there is a housing crash it will come from elsewhere in the economy, I'm thinking from mass lay offs due to a global "black swan" event in September leading into our October surprise for the presidential election (I'm thinking a major escalation in war in the middle east causing a fuel supply chain crisis).
Just me speculating but as things stand now, home owners are in a good position.
Lots of first time home buyers purchased homes the last few years assuming student loan forgiveness and didn't have their monthly payments factored into DTI because payments were suspended/frozen. I personally know some who took advantage of artificially lower DTI. Also approximately 40% federal student loan delinquency from last report. Once those 3-2-1 buydowns overlap credit bureaus reporting missed student loan payments in October from recent home owners getting squeezed, they'll lose ability to refinance from credit scores dropping. That's my theory for one source of future forced sellers. Could take another year for these sellers to actually put their homes on market though. But it's a very real scenario not being accounted for anywhere.
@@Swolejohll from what point? I mentioned it's up from the pandemic policies... Remember no one was foreclosured on for nearly 3yrs. It's still significantly lower than pre pandemic by nearly 3/4ths. It's a quick Google search.
If you are referring to people buying homes in 2023/24, you are off. People getting 3% down mortgages with 50%+ DTI and no savings are going to be in trouble. Most FTHB can't really afford to buy now even if they technically qualify.
Reventure Consulting is the best.
You misspelled "trash".
Reventure is the blind leading the blind. It always will be.
@Javier, I have a question. My home is currently listed. The DOM are getting longer. I'm thinking of removing it and Re-listing with another agent a few months down the road... 1. Is there a "timeline" I need to follow to make sure the MLS doesn't total all DOM if I relist in a certain period. 2. If I relist with a new agent/company does my clock start all over again with DOM. I called the AZMLS and as reluctant as they were to answer my question, she said "45 days off market" to start the clock again, regardless of whether you use the same or a new agent. Is that your understanding as well? TY
Awesome! Critique Javier more proof he’s wrong and inaccurate the majority of the time. Seems he knowingly skews the data to fit his narrative. We need more like you putting more like this out there. Thank you very much
Great critique!
🥊 Fight! Fight! Fight! 🥊😆 j/k
I do think RC is biased against some areas, but I appreciate that he will at least try to provide information on California sometimes. There are some content creators that practically hiss and recoil with a wolf howling in the distance if you ask about CA real estate.
I also will give him credit that he gave some specific stock advice once on his channel that some folks made money from. I'm a subscriber, but I don’t watch his channel as much anymore because his strong biases annoy me.
Anyone buying now is catching a falling knife.
Yeah? They told me that in 2022 and I'm up $34k since
ORAAT Next?
Hey Javier! Love your vids! So quick question, What do we think ( and I know it probably can’t be accurately tracked) about the houses that never hit the MLS? Like, with us being in a world of technology, with FB Market, Sub 2 buyers etc, is that data even tried to be accounted for? I think that would put a different perspective on these numbers that are being reported.
Clickbait =views=$
That guy, Nick throws out a lot of statistics, but he has been predicting a monster crash for years and so far, nothing.
Good video
He's the type of guy who would sue you for defamation. 😂😂😂
This clown is trying to convince people that now is a good time to buy, wow!!
First off, traditional real-estate metrics are VERY outdated and "basic".
Also "data is NOT data". Not all data is the same. MLS is not updated very well. When I was looking for property, the data was not very fresh and also, when properties were sold, those weren't updated very often, etc... I found the data to be very deficient on the MLS. MLS data sucks. And he says he looks at Zillow data, Red Fin data, and other places. His data is very deep. Not sure what you're talking about here.
Also just so the predictions haven't come to fruition does not mean these things aren't going to occur?
Did you know the Financial Crisis of 2009 was predicted..........wait for it.............for nearly 2 years in advance?
I think his view of mortgage payments to income is very telling over time and really shows the overpriced nature of this market.
Give Nick credit, he’s created a following and a product that is bringing him revenue and popularity, but his predictions and insights have been dead wrong for years. He’s like a slimy televangelist who is selling something he himself doesn’t believe or follow for the sole purpose of making money
Oh doomsday creator drama. I heard someone try to justify someone being an authority because they were "consistent" and made me think of this side of youtube.
His data might be right but he cherry picks the juiciest data in specific areas. Statistics don't lie, statisticians do.
No drama here, just sharing my experience.
@@JavyVidana yeah....boring hahaha jk. There is a reason I still watch your videos. Honest opinions and thoughts from a logical mind.
2019 is pre pandemic the years before 2019 are irrelevant for pre pandemic due to the shoot up in values during the pandemic. If you find a house in 2019 values you’re getting a good deal