Markets Weekly October 7, 2023
Vložit
- čas přidán 23. 07. 2024
- Softly Landing
The 150 Line in the sand
Implosion in oil prices
00:00 - Intro
0:45 - Softly Landing
5:52 - The 150 Line in the sand
10:49 - Implosion in oil prices
For my latest thoughts:
www.fedguy.com
For macro courses:
www.centralbanking101.com
Josephs Channel is a hidden gem. As most people are not intelligent enough or dont invest enough of their money to be interested in macroeconomic topics, yet there should definetely way more people watching this channel.
If more people know about his channel then I have less of an advantage over others.
Great call on treasuries (the supply angle no one else saw). Your hair looks great here too! Absolutely killing it
Best market recap on YT
Your ability to cut through the nonsense and clarify/simplify/cover what’s important is second to none. Thank you so much 🙏 for your outlook each week ✨
Thank you for this info, and thank you for explaining the sudden drop in oil prices.
You are my go to weekly video to help stay abreast of the market. So helpful. Enjoyed your book as well
I always look forward to your thoughts on the most important topics in the markets.
Thks a ton
Weekly recap really help me a lot !
Thank you so much JW
Thanks Joseph.
another great episode, thank you Joseph!
Thanks Joseph
Love your weekly economic discussions, Joseph 👊🏼
Look forward to each episode. Thanks for your channel
new camera. Love it!
Yes - I am impressed you noticed!
Thank you
Joseph, less full time work and more folks working more part time jobs is all the establishment report says
thanx
9:40min good info! Honestly everything was good
Thank you for sharing your analysis 💜Listening in every week. Is it possible to speak with a microphone? So the sound quality is better? Thank you 😊
Hi Joseph, as always, thanks for great videos.
It’s irrelevant to this video, per se, but I just finished reading your book “Central Banking 101” and have a few quick questions. Have you thought about opening up a forum or website where you could do a Q&A? It will greatly benefit the bonding between you and your readers. Anyways, if it’s okay, I would really appreciate it you could answer one of my questions. On the last Chapter (page 224) you said “The bond vigilantes that fiscal hawks feared appear to be fairy tales”. As far as my understanding, bond vigilantes threatens to sell (or actually sell off) their bonds to show resentment towards the policy issuer. So why would hawks ever fear the bond vigilantes? ( massive treasury bond sell off = price of the bond drops/hence, the interest rate goes up. This is pro hawks and opposite of doves. Therefore the doves should fear the bond vigilantes not hawks in my opinion) Would you please correct me if I am wrong and further explain about the matter please. Thanks a lot!
Bond investors hate inflation because it hurts the real value of their bonds, so they are watching closely to see if inflation gets out of hand. Hawks tend to want to hike rates, which keeps inflation down. They think that if they don't get inflation under control then bond investors will sell bonds.
@@Fedguy12 thanks for the reply, but why would they(the hawks) fear the bond vigilantes? Like their end goal is the same: raise interest rate and bring down inflation. Shouldn’t it be the doves that are to blame/to be fear of bond vigilantes?
What is an example of a historical soft landing?
I guess this time the Fed did everything precisely right
Growth in wages coming down is not the same as 'wages coming down'.
With autoworkers, Vegas hospitality workers and CA healthcare workers all on strike, and CA just mandating $20/hr min wage for fast food workers, it seems VERY premature to declare victory over wage inflation.
😎👍
Once again, an excellent analysis. Many newcomers ponder whether it's too late to invest in stocks and crypto, but the market's unpredictability remains constant. Trading offers advantages beyond holding, so prior education is crucial. Active trades are essential to navigate market fluctuations. Thanks to Cheryl Atonal, I've grasped trading concepts, boosting my earnings with over 19bitcoin! through her daily signals and insights.
I just looked up her name on Google and saw her impressive result. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Investments have proven to be one of the most advantageous choices one can make for themselves. To this day, my crypto profits consistently contribute significantly to my overall wealth, alleviating any need for me to rely solely on my salary.
Nice to see this here, I have worked with her also for months now, she simplifies matters, whether it's a market surge or drop; her approach consistently achieves profitable outcomes
Cheryl Atonal deserves more accolades, I'm so impressed knowing how much people talk good about her expertise... she also helped me and my friends here in the UK 🇬🇧 to trade profitably with her signals.
Please comment on money supply growth lag time for developed countries and what level (ie. 7%) does not devalue the currency too quickly or create excess
inflation that no average wage hike ever catches up to. Also are lag times for high money supply growth 6, 9 or 18 months in your estimation or some other number.
I believe Prof. Steve Hanke said 6% money growth is consistent with 2% inflation.
"oil tumbled bigly" channeling your inner trump lol. Always looking forward to your analysis, keep up the good work Joseph.
@Joseph Wang … does that mean it’s time to go long on long term bonds???
Not yet!
Speaking from the perspective as a tech worker, the job market has been significantly more difficult than it was in the past and the prospects for purchasing a new decent home is completely out of reach. I don't think a GFC style housing crash will happen because that was a completely different situation but I'm curious what you think will happen to housing especially because it's the highest expense for most people in the US and around the World. Can prices continue to stay high relative to income-to-price?
A soft landing means no housing crash, just a plateau as credit stays tight. The housing market normally varies and adjusts across regions based on economic growth and population. The Fed wants to recapitalize housing according to those fundamentals instead of through subsidized credit. That was their big mistake. We’ll see, but I doubt there will be any quick relief for buyers or sellers as the Fed will lean against any credit crisis or boom. The housing market will be tight to frozen for many years.
Do you think BOJ can handle increasing their already massive debt service cost
If adjusting the overnight rate isn't important, why is there such acute focus on what the market believes is one of the top key indicators?
It indicates forward intentions of the central bank. That matters.
@@MichaelHarrington17 It's a rhetorical question....
I do not think fed is done
Me neither
This month's CPI data will tick higher because of higher gas prices last month. They will hike the rate as jobs are hot and inflation still not cooling.
I like Joseph, but he is wrong about a soft landing. The recession is going to take about 6 months longer than usual.
The US is not an economic island. Weakness in other major economies is a threat to the US and provokes a recession due to globalisation.
Seems to be some contradiction in narratives here. A soft landing and lower demand for gasoline/oil are not compatible.
But how much weakness in the currency can Japan tolerate? With extreme weakness, which is what it is, combined with high prices for critical imports they're dependent on, like oil, it seems their hand might be forced. Don't forget, they've got a significant arsenal of reserves to deploy, albeit that doing so creates new problems!
The BOJ is depreciating the yen and yen denominated debt and will continue this tax on yen holders (the Japanese people) until they no longer can. This is how governments manage excessive debt. I don’t see the Japanese voters and taxpayers revolting any time soon.
@@MichaelHarrington17 Why don't you see this anytime soon?
I don't need the textbook answer.
@@tastypymp1287 Cultural. (Witness the Japanese economy and markets topped out in 1990 and they've been absorbing the low growth-asset depreciation scenario for 30 years without too much political fallout.) If the squeeze gets too tight perhaps the govt can increase some transfer payments with the capital inflows from overseas income from non-Yen assets. Intl travel by Japanese tourists will probably be further impacted.
@@MichaelHarrington17 Not an argument. Gonna need more than that.
@@MichaelHarrington17 They haven't been running their ultra dovish policy while subjected to higher than target inflation and extreme currency weakness.
When the facts change, I change my mind. I expect they might too.
If you own bonds it’s not a soft landing. C mon man.
Jerome powell : “this is the unfortunate cost of reducing inflation “
Instead of Jerome powell admîtes he totally screed it with late rates hikes and inflation not being a monetary phenomenon…
Do you put on the suit just for the video?
Do you put on the suit just for Zed?
Japan has serious problems.
More people working multiple part time jobs is good? Pretty strange outlook you have there.
Same % as pre pandemic. Where's the story here?
@@hubertdyka3467Was that pre-pandemic % a good thing?
Perhaps there's a story after all....