Ambev NYSE: ABEV Stock Offers 3X Potential (Stock To Buy)

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  • čas přidán 22. 08. 2024

Komentáře • 193

  • @Finley-rk8qw
    @Finley-rk8qw Před 26 dny +9

    I liked your video! Can you please suggest a good way of starting to invest in cryptocurrency. What do you think? Should we learn from successful traders and copy them rather than taking risks with our own money and getting too emotional?

    • @Finley-rk8qw
      @Finley-rk8qw Před 26 dny

      Which signal do you guys trade

    • @LoganBarnes-nq3ph
      @LoganBarnes-nq3ph Před 26 dny

      Trading has been going well for me. Each day, I enjoy watching videos and reading appreciation posts of trades profit. It brings me joy to see others happy.

    • @LoganBarnes-nq3ph
      @LoganBarnes-nq3ph Před 26 dny

      The professional is Mrs. Audrey Arlo.

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      @JustinLowe-sf3cy Před 26 dny

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    • @KieranWest-zb8lx
      @KieranWest-zb8lx Před 26 dny

      She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm from United States, she's a Licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United States.

  • @dennismozart5134
    @dennismozart5134 Před měsícem +53

    ABEV doesn’t deliver the growth promised in over 10 years in Brazil. As a Brazilian, the stock is overpriced for what it delivers. It also faces constant year to year competition to other brands such as Heineken locally there and it struggles to keep market share in there because of being too big it moves too slow…
    Also, this dividend has never been so high! For ABEV standard historically the yield is between 2.5%-4% and even that is very volatile as dividends in Brazil are not every quarter and predictable like here in the US. The stock is cheap for US standards, but once you go to actual BRL it’s not that cheap and the historical data doesn’t back that analysis up… there might be upside there in BRL, but in dollar with the currency devaluation it may not have that much.

    • @dennismozart5134
      @dennismozart5134 Před měsícem +2

      Not only that… I think there’s a lot of tax subsidies that it takes advantages of in there too… as soon as those are removed you’d could expect some impact on profitability as well… not that it will become not profitable, just less than it is today and that would/could hit hard the stock price…

    • @k4ir0s
      @k4ir0s Před měsícem +1

      Thanks for the insights! For me, the thing that's holding me back is the inconsistent dividend yield, and it's 1 time per year. I can see myself looking at it again once US interest rates go down and undervalued stocks go up. But right now, there's plenty of deep value non-tech choices available in the US market.

    • @bolle666
      @bolle666 Před měsícem

      ABEV is not for me. Analyst Scorecard on FG says the guidance is bad and the analysts are almost always wrong.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Před měsícem +1

      Thanks for sharing

  • @fpivi
    @fpivi Před měsícem +9

    I'm a Brazilian securities analyst. ABEV looks cheap from an outside perspective, but there's a lot of companies on Brazilian market that are WAY less expensive.
    We are talking about good utilities companies or great big Brazilian banks with a PE lower than 5 and negotiating under book value (for example: BBAS3, CSMG3, SAPR3, TRPL4, CLSC3, RANI3, PETR4, GOAU4...) There's also crazy opportunities in smallcaps. In this scenario, why anyone would buy a riskier stock like ABEV with way higher multiples?

    • @mrhulls
      @mrhulls Před měsícem +1

      I wouldn't analize a bank with pe but returning to your comments. Analying small caps from a foreing country is very difficult. I guess you have a big edge over foreing investors.

    • @Rrroohh
      @Rrroohh Před měsícem +1

      I like the companies you mentioned, but how you consider that Ambev (which generates tons of cash and sells worldwide) is riskier than GOAU4 which does not do good result and will continue to face chinese cheap steel (especially with chinese banking system getting worse at the moment) ? (not even mentioning PETR4 and political interferences)

    • @fpivi
      @fpivi Před měsícem +1

      @@mrhulls yes, this is my local market, and we have a say here that "Brazil is not for amateurs". Things are "complicated". But Brazilian banks are the most profitable in the world (Itaú, Banco do Brasil, Bradesco, Santander Brasil). Here it makes a lot of sense to look at the PE and Price/book ratios, even at banks. Some Brazilian stocks listed in the US that are great companies at fair prices: PBR, GGB, CIG, BDORY... I like ABEV, but not at these prices

    • @fpivi
      @fpivi Před měsícem

      @@Rrroohh It's just margin of safety. Gerdau and Petrobras are just very cheap, so the risk becomes low buying at current prices.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Před měsícem

      Thanks for sharing

  • @MrRubigno81
    @MrRubigno81 Před měsícem +2

    Ambev is one of my favourite: great brands, incredible market share in its markets, 5 years ROIC of 16.64%, 5 years net margin of 19%, positive cash position, the safest dividend... now at a discount (6.98 ev/ebitda compared to a 5ys average of 10.68). Big BUY in my opinion.

  • @bolle666
    @bolle666 Před měsícem +6

    Finally a day where it is fun being a value investor!

  • @carlosparra9527
    @carlosparra9527 Před měsícem +7

    Im ball deeps in Ambev, down like 25%, but keep buying each week.

  • @boristruth7912
    @boristruth7912 Před měsícem +2

    I invested $500 let's see in 1-3 years if it will get 2-3x or get cheaper. Relatively small position in my portfolio. I like to see some drinks in my portfolio after long holding Coca-Cola & Pepsi.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Před měsícem +1

      thanks for sharing

    • @hammer49946
      @hammer49946 Před měsícem

      Do you know what the foreign tax rate is from dividends received?

  • @SomeGuy-ws5zj
    @SomeGuy-ws5zj Před měsícem +16

    Yeah. I live next to Brazil and Brazil is full of Ambev trucks delivering drinks absolutely everywhere. They sell like crazy and it is also one of the few businesses that works perfectly in a recession.
    I have the stock since 2022 and a little bit down is my second target.

    • @adriantimar4290
      @adriantimar4290 Před měsícem +3

      I live in Italy, own a pizzeria, and the top sold "commercial" beers are always Becks and Leffe

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Před měsícem

      Thanks for sharing!

  • @maximklimenko1998
    @maximklimenko1998 Před měsícem +7

    Hey Master, what about Chinese utilities like China Water Affairs Group Ltd? Also great value assets?

    • @markus_bit.
      @markus_bit. Před měsícem +1

      I would also be interested in that. I owned it back in 2021 and made good money.

    • @IPQ-sj2zs
      @IPQ-sj2zs Před měsícem +3

      Debt to equity 122%

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Před měsícem

      Depends on the government

  • @torrontoarts3663
    @torrontoarts3663 Před měsícem +2

    Hello Sven, from a longterm viewer:
    Thank you a lot for your work and for being a rational pol in these emotional times.
    If you take subscriber wishes:
    I would love for you to do an update on alibaba with the competitive situation with PDD and JD
    Thank you and good night
    Torro

  • @fernandomizobuti
    @fernandomizobuti Před měsícem +2

    Hi Sven! Ambev is going through a challenge due to the economic crisis in Argentina and the drop in beer consumption in some of its markets, such as Canada. It's an ok company, which hasn't been growing much and should distribute 5/6% of DY, but here in Brasil we have other more interesting ones.

  • @Ravencroft81
    @Ravencroft81 Před měsícem +2

    Ironicly AB Inbev has been such a poor investment the past decade.

  • @bluetilenedrummer
    @bluetilenedrummer Před měsícem +1

    Sven, maybe a video on Pernod Riccard? Also good diversification outside US

  • @felanterap
    @felanterap Před měsícem +1

    Great video, Sven! I'm also a Brazilian, I don't have the stock, but one thing I'll say, it won't stop growing the profits soon because people over here are consuming A LOT of their products. Even though some competition has entered, it's nothing to worry about and I don't think it will be.

  • @carlosperdomo1517
    @carlosperdomo1517 Před měsícem +2

    Ambev is a classic Graham pick right now

  • @BG-mw5pt
    @BG-mw5pt Před měsícem +1

    as a pure financial valuation alone, ABEV is grossly underpriced. even if the price were $4/share, it still has an 80% chance to make you money. but...

  • @davidedeltoro4117
    @davidedeltoro4117 Před měsícem +4

    Very interesting company Sven! It looks like a buy in brazilian real terms. Unfortunately it doesn't fit my portofolio due to currency risk. In the years the brazilian real keep depreciating against the dollar and the euro, that's why the ADR performance as been horrible! I'm not smart enought to know if the currency trend will change..

    • @TheBooban
      @TheBooban Před měsícem +2

      Make currency risk work for you. USD is very strong now. Which means, you should in fact be buying foreign stocks now to reap a windfall of dividends in the future. I’m not American and bought a ton of US stocks back in the day and so glad I did.
      But I have to still buy US stocks today because good buys are simply limited in the world. It is Brazilian money though but heck, as long as Brazil doesn’t do an Argentina it’s ok. I bought a little Ambev just now :)

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Před měsícem

      Thanks for sharing

  • @_VlCTOR_
    @_VlCTOR_ Před měsícem +3

    DEO, ABEV, have crushed. maybe people cut drink budget in this recession

    • @dodid0
      @dodid0 Před měsícem +2

      People never cut drink budget for beer. For expensive wine and liquors yes, but for a beer can that cost cents, it doesn´t happen.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Před měsícem

      Thanks for sharing

  • @xxxxl2333
    @xxxxl2333 Před měsícem +2

    Ambev is in downturn since 2013 , stock has already lost 76% of its value last 11 years

  • @HenningYT
    @HenningYT Před měsícem +2

    I already initiated a position last week. Thank you for the video.

  • @silviumanole2103
    @silviumanole2103 Před měsícem +1

    Sven, good company with steady cash flow and solid MOAT is Virgin Galactic, they are printing money. Doing better than FED.

  • @fabioingrosso3008
    @fabioingrosso3008 Před měsícem +2

    Hi Sven. Thanks for this video I always enjoy and learn a lot from your analysis.
    since you asked, I suggest three companies. Ticker symbols: O, EPD and EKT!
    The first two are good dividend stocks, EPD in particular. O has a good business model even if it is Real Estate. EKT looks like a good compounder, not yet recognized by the market, although the dividend is not that attractive. I'm following them all but have not yet invested in any yet.
    Thanks a lot again, hope to be helpful!

  • @chrisapplebach4756
    @chrisapplebach4756 Před měsícem +6

    Best Channel On CZcams

  • @ihakker1416
    @ihakker1416 Před měsícem +5

    didn´t expect this to show up here :D not really a well-known high-flying stock. Been holding Ambev for 9months or so already, same investment thesis as you, pretty good value stock with interesting risk/reward. Also a good way to diversify away from the "main" markets (USA/EU and to a lesser degree china)

  • @kevintan6705
    @kevintan6705 Před měsícem +1

    Thanks for the insight Sven! My main concern despite promising balance sheet is that it doesn't really have much of a moat, alcohol business is tough since there is so much competition and ABEV doesn't really hold any competitive advantage over other producers.

  • @fernandomizobuti
    @fernandomizobuti Před měsícem +1

    I think you will like Itaú, largest Bank in latin America. NYSE: Itub
    Other suggestions: ENGIY - utilities, BDORY - Bank, TIMB - Telecom.

  • @marossko1
    @marossko1 Před měsícem +4

    Hi Sven, great video again! Thank you for sharing your view on this. I was wandering what your thoughts are on Neste Oyj and Match Group. They seem to be pretty undervalued. Just a tip for a next analysis. Take care. Maros

  • @PMCH71
    @PMCH71 Před 27 dny

    Good day, Sven
    Staying on the topic of brasilian companies, what is your take on Petrobras?

  • @simonefiaschi9076
    @simonefiaschi9076 Před měsícem +1

    A proposito di valore , il valore che mi producono i minatori di metalli preziosi e’ grande e ne produrranno ancora di piu’ il vero value Investing e’ questo ti arrampichi su gli specchi si sente il rumore sveglia

  • @anderson6379
    @anderson6379 Před měsícem +2

    Thanks for covering 🤓😎 I have been looking at it too recently. U have taught us well😁 Another one with a South African link so easy for me to have background. Just like Prosus and Naspers. ABEV and SAB Miller 🙂 Brands I have been familiar with. Thanks for your teachings

  • @AnyangU
    @AnyangU Před měsícem +1

    You seem to like relatively smaller non-U.S. businesses that seem undervalued with some reason to expect growth, maybe even significant growth? If they do grow, it might be a good chance at significant gains. Of course, no one really knows the future.

  • @randyromano2854
    @randyromano2854 Před měsícem

    If beer sales are steady and increasing in Brazil, economic stability and growth must also be happening.

  • @CraigTaggart
    @CraigTaggart Před měsícem +1

    thanks Sven great review as always, seems like a dividend play against U.S. market with limited growth here. Definitely on watch list

  • @Amwatson801
    @Amwatson801 Před měsícem +2

    Gross margins have declined from 66% to 50% over the past decade as revenues declined consistently 2014-19 (while acquisitions were being made): very ugly trend.
    Dividends represent 60-80% of cashflows over the past 5 years.
    Revenue surge in recent years (while volumes dropped) seems purely a result of inflation.
    So all you can essentially count on is the (high payout) dividend.

  • @luisalbertobauerlandivar5638
    @luisalbertobauerlandivar5638 Před měsícem +1

    In my country (Bolivia), AMBEV is the dominant force in the beer industry. They’re so big that the they have an unusual supplier power, paying their suppliers in 180 days. No other beer company comes even close to them.

  • @eddy563
    @eddy563 Před měsícem +2

    interesting, worth to take a look.. good return on equity

  • @benjaminwhite2156
    @benjaminwhite2156 Před měsícem +1

    Hi Sven one thing I thought u might find interesting is they compete with quilmes in Argentina which has 46% market share there so bit difficult competition for Argentina Altho the geographic diversification doesn’t make it too significant but thought it would be something to add to your research. Thanks for the video👍👍

  • @marinikc8780
    @marinikc8780 Před měsícem +1

    i like investing in Brazil etf (EWZ) than in a single stock from a market I don't know too well - 7.4% dividend, plus diversification, good growth prospects for the future! ;)

    • @tiago.sartor
      @tiago.sartor Před měsícem

      Brazilian here, EWZ is heavily concentrated in a few commodity companies and banks. If this is your goal then ok, but for me as a brazilian EWZ is a very bad index to invest into.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Před měsícem

      Thanks for sharing

  • @siggiAg86
    @siggiAg86 Před měsícem +1

    will you research this further or perhaps buy it?

  • @JuanBattaglia45
    @JuanBattaglia45 Před měsícem +2

    "A bad situation in Argentina". Hearing that from my birth. Regards from Argentina 🤣

  • @runabath
    @runabath Před měsícem +2

    Iv dipped my toe in this one y has it gone down tho

  • @Alex-qw7iz
    @Alex-qw7iz Před měsícem +8

    I recently bought Pernod Riccard

    • @TheKatorosa
      @TheKatorosa Před měsícem

      Same. Seems like a better company.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Před měsícem

      Thanks for sharing

    • @TheKatorosa
      @TheKatorosa Před měsícem +1

      @@Value-Investing maybe do an analysis of Pernod Ricard?

  • @nixielee
    @nixielee Před měsícem

    Could be something, but I wonder if gen-z is even drinking beer. Youngsters will probably be all in on easy spirits. Pernod Ricard, -35% 1y looks kind of interesting

  • @extramild1
    @extramild1 Před měsícem

    Just awful beer but a good company I would say. A p/e of nearly 13 and a 7% dividend - a man could do worse things with his money. But this company has been very good at destroying value since the merger with Bud. Given how cheap the shares are I would like to see the company buying back shares and paying down debt rather than paying out a 7% dividend.

  • @arbitrage-technologies487
    @arbitrage-technologies487 Před měsícem +1

    i think that its interesting because we will see 3usd for sure one day but the growth story of the stoxk seems compromised.
    why a stock is loosing value since 2012…
    i see growth in retained earnings but the real growth wich comes from cash flow from operations show no increases (discount inflation and its worth)
    i see that stock as a bond..
    i learnt the hard way that its better to buy expensive stocks than cheap ones…the only challenge is to not overpay.

  • @efiroozy
    @efiroozy Před měsícem +1

    Nope . They dilute shares like crazy

  • @deankateman1674
    @deankateman1674 Před měsícem

    Hey I saw in the past u covered Nutrient, it appears to be going to be in a down part of the cycle again. Could an update video be interesting?

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Před měsícem

      I have updated on my research platform, will see if I'll make a vid

  • @whiskey_tango_foxtrot__
    @whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ Před měsícem +2

    Pros: Sells a product people want. Company will not go bankrupt. Pays you well to wait. Diversification away from dollar.
    Cons. Its been dead money for a decade. Woke disasters of product advertising. Poltics in Brazil.

    • @SigFigNewton
      @SigFigNewton Před měsícem +1

      Dead money with a 7% yield is live money

    • @whiskey_tango_foxtrot__
      @whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ Před měsícem +4

      @@SigFigNewton Only 7% after it dropped by 70%

    • @TheBooban
      @TheBooban Před měsícem

      I think a lot due to IPA trend. I think that’s over now. Every stock has a bottom. This may be it!

    • @SigFigNewton
      @SigFigNewton Před měsícem

      @@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ ah yea, I keep forgetting that past performance is how to determine future performance

    • @stefanbromberger8785
      @stefanbromberger8785 Před měsícem

      ​@@SigFigNewtonHe is just trying to explain to you that this is NOT a dividend growth play.

  • @jackouille2024
    @jackouille2024 Před měsícem +2

    What about Petrobras? A major with massive discount and generous dividends

    • @ironbooze2937
      @ironbooze2937 Před měsícem

      Dividend isn't safe and the value gap is probably going to stay forever as it acts as a government pet.
      I bought some when it was close to half it's current price, which was a good deal. But now? Don't know if I would add any.

    • @jackouille2024
      @jackouille2024 Před měsícem

      @@ironbooze2937 safe enough for me. Min 4% yield guaranteed at current price if WTI > 40$ and gross debt < 60 G$ (read their div policy). Current yield around 12% with potential upside if extra div. PER of 4, 40% GPM, 30% ROE etc. Keep investing in your SP etf at 1% yield, sucker!

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Před měsícem

      No idea, havent analyzed

  • @Itsbestbro
    @Itsbestbro Před měsícem +1

    Being a subsidiary of a bigger company that is in major debt reminds me of Vandanta

  • @sowhat8995
    @sowhat8995 Před měsícem +3

    Brazil does not levy withholding tax on dividends, correct? But since this is a US ADR, would US withholding tax be due or does it remain at 0%?

    • @michaelfishkop779
      @michaelfishkop779 Před měsícem

      all ADRs fall under US withholding tax

    • @frankyfourfingers1382
      @frankyfourfingers1382 Před měsícem

      Good question ... I've yet to figure that one out.

    • @carlosparra9527
      @carlosparra9527 Před měsícem +1

      15% Now, since a law change in 2023

    • @sowhat8995
      @sowhat8995 Před měsícem

      @@michaelfishkop779 No, this cannot apply in general: In the past, I have paid 15% withholding tax on dividends from a Russian share (plus fee) and 0% on a Colombian share.

    • @sowhat8995
      @sowhat8995 Před měsícem

      @@carlosparra9527 This law does not appear to apply to US05968L1026. 🤔

  • @bernteinar906
    @bernteinar906 Před měsícem +2

    Lol bought Ambev @2.08 on the 3 of july :)

  • @mrx2062
    @mrx2062 Před měsícem +1

    The issue is, when it cannot really grow, it cannot organically reinvest and therefore not really compound.

  • @tocaciulevente992
    @tocaciulevente992 Před měsícem +1

    Plus500, Cal-maine foods, Adecoagro (Brazil again), etc

  • @emiliankrajci1172
    @emiliankrajci1172 Před měsícem +1

    Hi Sven,
    could you check also briefly LUV /Southwest airls /stock ? It is also on lower levels and has been hit by covid . Anyway if they will return to pre pandemic profit it can go higher as Disney
    always there are lot of potential issue as for example they using only boing 737 so they also depends on all boing issues

  • @MrAzorian
    @MrAzorian Před měsícem +1

    Hi Sven, always a great video. Have you looked at the brazilian company Gerdau SA (NYSE:GGB)? Steel maker with strong liquidity, 7% dividend and significant exposure to USA.

  • @sandraamehd5622
    @sandraamehd5622 Před měsícem

    If you don't find a means of multiplying your income you will wake up one day to realize you didn't plan..

  • @Learntsomethingtoday
    @Learntsomethingtoday Před měsícem

    Buy the ADR or the Brazilian stock?

  • @PrintOnDemandWorld
    @PrintOnDemandWorld Před měsícem

    Haidilao Chinese stock . Wide moat in the hot pot market in China. Should have a look at it Sven

  • @andreabertagni4955
    @andreabertagni4955 Před měsícem

    What do u think about swatch group?

  • @kuckol
    @kuckol Před měsícem +1

    Thank you Sven

  • @marcoalbertospadacini3792
    @marcoalbertospadacini3792 Před měsícem +1

    Ottimo lavoro Sven ❤

  • @aleemahmed6201
    @aleemahmed6201 Před měsícem +1

    IMO investing in companies that are net negatives to society is counter intuitive.

  • @Frank-yx1np
    @Frank-yx1np Před měsícem

    True ..agree

  • @juniorbalteus4700
    @juniorbalteus4700 Před měsícem

    Please do a oibr3 video🙏

    • @fpivi
      @fpivi Před měsícem

      Book value per share = R$ -400,00. Not great

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Před měsícem

      Thanks for sharing

  • @fregger74
    @fregger74 Před měsícem +1

    have you looked as celsius? Reminds me a lot of a Peter Lynch type investment. A good product that is being adopted rapidly, with a great balance sheet and a long runway for growth

  • @worldpeacenoplaceforhypocr8254

    Chop 1st Seat 🤣