The EU is falling behind the US & China - here is why
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- čas přidán 25. 08. 2022
- The European Union is a declining economic superpower, with other nations such as India, China and the US set to outgrow the EU over the next 30 years. This means that by 2050, we are likely to have a different world order, in which the EU has significantly less power. This video will look at the future economic projections and will analyze why the EU is falling behind.
Timestamps:
EU’s Economic Decline: 1:37
TOP 10 by GDP PPP: 3:03
EU Demographics: 3:32
Corporate EU: 6:41
EU Crisis Management: 8:23
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Key Resources
Source 1: World Bank, GDP, PPP (current international $)
data.worldbank.org/indicator/...
Source 2: PWC, The World in 2050 Overview
www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-in...
Source 3: PWC, The World in 2050 Detailed Report
www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/...
Source 4: World Bank, Population Estimates & Projections
databank.worldbank.org/source...
Source 5: World Bank, Fertility Rates
data.worldbank.org/indicator/...
Source 6: European Council Eurostat, Key Figures on Europe
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documen...
Source 7: Everything about Population
www.ined.fr/en/everything_abo...
Source 8: European Council Eurostat, Statistics Explained
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statist...
Source 9: McKinsey, Strategy & Corporate Finance
www.mckinsey.com/business-fun...
Source 10: CompaniesMarketCap, Largest Tech Companies
companiesmarketcap.com/tech/l...
Source 11: Business Europe, 10 years after Crisis EU recovery Slower US and Canada
www.businesseurope.eu/publica...
Source 12: Forbes, Quantitative Easing Explained
www.forbes.com/advisor/invest....
Source 13: the Balance, What is Quantitative Easing
www.thebalance.com/what-is-qe...
Source 14: BBC, ECB unveils massive QE boost for eurozone
www.bbc.com/news/business-309...
Except the 2050 GDP numbers are completely impossible to accurately estimate. The UK has also been underperforming compared to France ever since Brexit
So much possibility thing thing for prediction
Also the decline in population in China seemes to be to little considering that there population is aging faster then the European one.
That is incorrect Britain was the fastest growing economy in the G7 but the British economy has hit some speed bumps (Covid/Ukraine-Russia War/Incompetent Governments/Unions). But things are massively going to change as Britain moves towards the right (Populism/Nationalism). The rebuilding of the British industrial sector will happen soon.
@@jammiedodger7040 This! Britain will reborn but Europe is legit in the mist of dismanteling....all the main economies minus Germany have developed separstist parties that are quickly gaining popularity. The EU failed to respect the autodetermination and sovereingnity of its nations and now its paying the price.
Russia will be the nail in the coffin, winter its coming and yall have to face the concequences of hyper centralized goverment.
@@lenadrasecsetneumsecrag7051 We need something like CPTPP in Europe for European Countries
I like your content and still gave a like to this video, but I have a lot of criticisms with it.
Firstly, the use of GDP PPP, okay I understand many economists argue (real) GDP is the better source of measuring, but purchasing power and price differences are only going down. A high tech device like an iPhone has a relatively similar price everywhere, and as the world becomes more globalized, prices will continue to go down and become more standardized. I know this isn't the strongest argument, but I would still mention it
But even the notion of predicting the worlds future GDP is contentious. In the 1960's people were certain the USSR would overtake the US economy, in the 1980s everyone thought it would be Japan. In the 1990s and early 2000s people thought Europe became the global hegemon once more. However, as we can see none of these predictions lasted.
I understand the fundamental idea of this video, and I do inherently agree with it, but other countries also have their fair share of underwater stones. China's real estate crisis for example. And all the other countries have their challenges aswell.
Also the fundemental notion that simply because they have a higher GDP we are losing out, is a very black & white, way to look at the world. Everyone benefits from there being less poverty (Selfish altruism) and all the such. You may argue the EU is relatively better off, when Sweden had almost the same GDP as India back in 1991 (simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal) IMF predictions look at 1991, you will see only a 6 BIL$ difference between India & Sweden)
This idea shouldn't be seen as Europe declining as much as the rest of the world finally catching up, India has 3 times the population, so does China if by 2050, their GDP is only x2.2 higher whilst having triple the population and using GDP PPP statistics that make China look better, than I would argue that is still very good, because the average European is still better off than the average Chinese person.
Demographics are an issue to a large extent a cost of living crisis, most families want 2 or 3 kids, they can't afford to have 2 or 3 kids, that's why birth rates are low. But with the constant rise of automation and there being more and more jobs slated to be replaced by automation, it may be that having a high population will serve mearily as a burden. There has been a high amount of jobless growth in recent years, where the economy grows but unemployment remains high, if this continues Europe will only seek to benefit.
In regards to European companies being less profitable, slower revenue growth, and less R&D spending. Only the last of the 3 is a major issue. The first two can be explained with one word: Monopolization. In the US there are constantly mergers and acquisitions, and very high corporate debt to attain a very high market dominance. Google and other tech giants constantly get fined for anti-competitive and monopolistic behaviors here. Of course a company will have a higher profit margin if it is one of three companies, that controls 90% of the market share. (Good video here, if a bit biased: czcams.com/video/KLfO-2t1qPQ/video.html )
Americans have higher debt, and spend more, student debt is not as big of an issue here in Europe, I would say even a non-issue compared to the US. Higher defecit spending, from both the population as a whole and the government in particular will result in higher revenues. The one issue I do see is problematic is R&D spending, which I will concede Europe does lag behind in. Even though the US may have more companies in the top 10 or even top 100, and may even have more startups. Europe has it's fair share, of startups, and the climate for them is slowly but surely improving over time, with more VC money, less bureaucracy and more flexibility appearing.
Finally regarding, the financial crisis, it hit certain EU countries disproportionetly hard, think Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain & Cyprus. Yes, those countries suffered a massive blow, and now have high debts to GDP and not the most productive of economies, (Though many may argue its not their fault, they can't devalue their currency to have made an easy recovery the way Iceland did, and many may argue that those countries were screwed over to save German, French & British banks, but thats a whole different can of worms) many countries are still fine. The worst Nordic state by debt to GDP if Finland, and they are at around 70%. ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:General_government_debt,_2020_and_2021_(%C2%B9)_(General_government_consolidated_gross_debt,_%25_of_GDP)_April2022.png
The USA on the other hand, has a debt to gdp higher than that of Spain, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
Which brings me to the "very high" economic growth of the US. While I do commend the Americans, for being hard workers, innovative & all the rest of it. Their budget policies have been more shall we say.... reckless. Since 2000 when Bush II inherited a budget surplus and made it into a defecit, the US has been spending & spending away. They don't even have any 3% defecit cap like EU countries have, they are spending very recklessly. (I know people will bring up the reserve status of the dollar, or MMT or Japan, all valid arguments, but I am unable to address all of them right now). The point being Europe is far more fiscally responsible than the US is.
Bringing up Greece, and saying look, that's bad Greece, or whichever countries still hasn't recovered, is although a valid argument not a good one when examining the EU economy as a whole. No, Greece hasn't recovered but that is the equivelant of me judging the US economy by the success of Detroit or Mississippi.
Overall good video, but I do think the issue is more exaggerated than it ought to be, Europe is still a great place to live in, and Europe will still hold a lot of influence on the world stage. Living in a multipolar world is more just and better than one ruled by Europe or the USA solely.
I think it's time for you to leave your bubble. Recently even French President said that days of abundance are coming to an end for the EU and (typical propaganda) that's a small price to pay to stand upto dictator Putin and for freedom and democracy.
Thanks for the feedback Egor. Some great points in there. I also love Europe and really enjoy living here ! And in terms of living standards, the EU is up there among the world's best. I also think that it's better to have multiple countries/blocks leading the world, I just worry that our national priorities may come at the cost of a strong EU (i.e. Brexit).
I think the main point I was trying to make is the importance of the European continent to work together. What I tried to highlight is that even if we all work in a union, we will not be up there with China and India. This hopefully emphasizes the point that leaving the block and going at it alone may make you insignificant on a world stage. And that can impact quality of life in the long term... As others are making decisions fot you
All of that to say if a war broke out today, we’d be begging England and the US to come to our aid. We’re so use to comfort and sitting back that we ignored the most important law of nature: Power and Strength. No amount of supercars, healthcare, delicious food, football teams, etc. will matter when, aside from France, we have no clout on the global stage. We don’t lead the world in anything militarily: Not air, land, or navel power, most of our advanced tech comes from the UK or US, and the more we tell ourselves we’re safe, the more we keep declining. This war in Ukraine has shown us who really leads the free world against the likes of China and Russia. I’m sure the Yanks would want nothing more than to bring their boys back home, but until we step up- NATO spending for example!- they can’t, out of fear of another invasion. Experts have said without American or English aid, we would collapse in a matter of months, not years, but actual months from a war with either Russia, China, Iran, NK, etc. Wake tf up and quit drinking the cool-aid! This video should be a wake up call, but here we are making excuses for ourselves again. This isn’t the 1600s man, no one cares for our past and history but ourselves. We don’t have another Napoleon or strong EU country that could go toe-to-toe with any of the other major powers. The sooner we realize this the better
This is just cope, most European economies haven't recovered from '08.
I am happy I don't have to write up a similar comment, since you brought up a fair few of the points that were bothering me as well.
I would like to point out that even more than just GDP to PPP or GDP by itself are far from a realistic measurement.
Economists use them to look at the overall state of the economy, and see if there are big shake ups, but that's about it.
You mentioned it in the comment yourself, some countries spend more because they take more debt, or because their systems are more focussed on creating revenue than being beneficial to the quality of life of the people.
I do think the US is being more unreasonable, but since the Dollar is always needed by everyone across the globe, I'm not sure if you can even call it to be irresponsible, they are using what is within their means after all, just that those happen to be skewed in their favour.
You touched on the subject, I do personally believe the inability of counteracting fiscal problems more locally is a massive issue, that largely stems from the common currency being part way in, part way out, due to the non committment of the members when the deal was made. Originally the ECB and Euro were meant to have similar levers to the Federal Reserve to deal with Fiscal issues in the Eurozone. Controlling things more directly if necessary and giving more incentives, unfortunately that would have required member states to relinquish control over their own monetary policy, something that is understandable but nontheless disappointing, as we could have saved Spain, Greece, Italy and most states with financial issues much much easier, without sweeping Austerity.
You're quite right about demographics however, it is even qustionable how necessary an overall share of gdp is, as long as other parts of the economy and country are functioning, strategic autonomy, posession of key technologies, high standards of living, education and production.
We also have to look forward and acknowledge that, if we knew about what new technologies and measures will emerge to deal with our issues, we wouldn't be having these troubles, yet it is also not unlikely that there are indeed ideas on how to keep the standard of living high even with a less productive or older population.
Who knows, maybe within the next decades we'll be able to stop the degradation of our cells till we die, keeping all of us fit for much longer, or maybe there will be efforts to create manufacturing that requires very little personell to provide for daily necessities without high cost, maybe more progressive systems of taxation that do not allow for richer individuals to dodge large parts of that burden, or whatever other radical things may come.
I find it quite strange that an older population will mean a weaker nation considering how much change is likely to happen going forward. Even with less people, we will still have the know-how and productive capacities, those won't just disappear either.
Anyway, cheers for the comment, glad to see someone bringing up important points that I was dearly missing.
You listed the top 10 tech companies, but I think it's worthy to note that they all depend on TSMC for their chips and TSMC depends on ASML for their machines. Don't underestimate the importance of Taiwan and the Netherlands in the tech industry.
ASML is a product of the US military, it exist due to American confidentiality act on trade secrets. If the Netherlands were to face a major financial breakdown affecting vital semiconductor industries, the US could single handedly force Dutch authorities to hand trade secrets to the US in exchange for trade security. The EU has failed big time.
Dependency goes both ways.
I couldn't agree more! 😉
Bruh where already starting with quantum computing. we litarly created a new province called Flevoland 🇳🇱
Somebody watches Asianometry..great channel.
It's simply because China and India have huge population, if every country were equally well functioning, these countries should have been dominating long before. China became much more efficient due a more sane economic policy, nothing besides that. This is not necessarily the fault of EU or US.
I'm sorry, but that's too much glass ball reading for me. There are simply too many factors that would have to remain the same or similar until 2050 for this scenario to be fulfilled. At this point in time the whole world is in turmoil and as mentioned in the video there are many issues that need to be addressed. Is it a challenge? For sure ! is it scary ? Maybe ! But I certainly didn't want to swap US or Chinese GDP for life in the EU.
It's made scary, but it's all relative because this video is using a it's data a bit dramtic . One can not talk about ' the E.U versus the rest of the world ', and then compares individual countries like France with countries like China and India . A country with billion people earning 5 dollars a day is obviously far more then some European country with 12 million people earning 100 $ a day. But that data doesn't mean anything substantial.
Completely ignoring the gigantic demographic time bomb in China...
The problem with the EU is that it will always be divided
that might have been the case prior to 2020 but EU has actually performed rather well during the midst of a global PANDAmic and Pudding's Invasion.
There is now even more desire for other nations to become a part of EU than in the mid 2010s.
well thanks to putin we are all more united now
In 1943, the Nazi were stil controlling Paris
Jump to 2023, the EU members have a shared EU currency and every EU member (except hungary) is giving weapons and supporting ukraine.
Also the EU economic fund after covid, the countries are linked more than ever and helping each other like never before.
That is unimaginable and undeniable progress. Who know what will happen in the next 50 years.
Firstly the EU as a whole is not responding in a similar manner to the Russian invasion both France and Germany are both dragging their heels to suggest otherwise is utter stupidity. Secondly the response to Covid wasn’t great no better than uk, keeping boarders open for political reasons rather than making sensible choice to close boarders (Italian at the start of pandemic) was utter madness!
No because EU is puppet of US
The thing is, as things stand, I'd rather live in the EU rather than the US, China or India for that matter and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
I'd rather live in USA than in EU. Id rather live in Japan or South Korea than EU. But I would hate to live in China.
Definitely rather live in the USA and don't plan on changing that anytime soon.
I'd rather live in China honestly
@@blueciffer1653 Go ahead. See how you like living in an autocratic police-state that has actually introduced social credit.
@@kimwit1307 Loved it actually. I spent 5 years there. It's not a nightmare dictatorship you actually think it is. Try again
1. End the national veto
2. Increase legal immigration
3. Complete the EU digital single market
4. Start a Erasmus for Tech related education
5. Bring UK, Turkey, Ukraine & West Balkans closer
Or just have more kids like the rest of the world instead of slowly going extinct by replacing your own people.
6)Have a common language like English or Esperanto as the second language for all EU countries which makes it easier for companies with labor shortages in the north to hire people from countries with massive unemployment within the EU and makes labor migration within the EU fluid.
I am a non-eu worker in the tech industry in Malta, a country that hates immigrants, where you can't get citizenship by naturalization.
Many talented expats and immigrants start there careers here and are eventually snagged move to the US or Australia which have more favorable immigration policies.
I would love to move to other EU countries but because there is no common framework for migration and integration of Non-eu workers.
If I get a permanent residency card in Malta, i cannot transfer it to another eu country and look for a job there.
I am lucky in the sense that many companies in my industry just expect you to speak English but integrating into a country involves learning the local language even for professional purposes for people in other industries.
Contrast that with the US where you can easily move to another state and start over without a hassle because there are no language barriers to overcome.
If you say that to the average European though, they feel offended and fear that a second common language will erode their national language and culture.
Well make a decision then, do you want to isolate yourself to hold on to your pride while your population declines and all the talent goes to a more dynamic, easy to integrate to country like the US or Australia or integrate into a powerful European block to remain relevant, wealthy and innovative that attracts talented and more productive migrants.
If the eu did what the UK wanted it would be fine they wanted only economic integration but eu wants politics invovled which becomes slow and inefficient
Yes.
You can't really compare monetary policy in the Eurozone to the US. The position of the USDollar as the world reserve currency gives the treasury an unparalleled ability to intervene fiscally and practise deficit spending.
Not anymore really. Yes the $ is the world reserve currency, but its nolonger as important as it used to be
@@mijicmugendo Is it losing its standing? Yes.
Are we at a point where you can compare US budgetary and monetary policy to other countries'?
No.
@@mangachu3626
Look im not having a go at the $, but the simple fact it is the $ is not as important a currency as it once was. The % of international payments done in $ has fallen dramatically over the last 20 years.
Why would you need to compare monetary policy?
@@mijicmugendo Because he does in the video. He is comparing European crisis spending to American's.
@@mangachu3626
Because it doesn't make any difference to my point. The US $ is just not as important as it used to be . 50 years ago 90% of world trade was done in $, today it is roughly 44%.
The $ is a major currency and always will be, just not as important as it used to be , because not only has the $ lost influence, so has the US.
I personally don't think that is a good thing, but it's still true
Seeing your face I finally know who to blame for the horrendous United EU flag ;)
Gave you some feedback on one of your earlier comments!
Haha yep
Thanks for the great video, it was really nice and refreshing seeing you on screen this time!
Thank you. Appreciate the nice comment :)
Thank you
I like the GDP graphic - high quality & very professional.
Also, it’s nice to see u in the video. keep up the good work!
Thank you :)
Great video
Your a good channel thanks for informing
I've seen projections for chine who will get down to 0.65 bil people instead of 1.39 as you suggest in the video.
What do you think about those numbers? And there's always immigration of people who insted of in Nigeria might move to EU somewhere.
Good job!
I like your content so much and its really interesting facts and figures and keeps my attention higher throughout the video. I was really thinking these gaps between EU- and China after the documentary about fast-trains development in the last decades. I also came to conclusion of aging population of EU, nationalism and diverse languages and slow bureaucrasy are the main reason which is quite similar with your comments. .
Happy you enjoy it :) yes there are a lot of areas where the EU is inefficient.. and can do better
It would help if we became a true federation like the US. Unfortunately, this is currently unfeasible. Most EU citizens would oppose that idea.
They will oppose it because the majority of EU citizens don't want the EU to be a federation
Most would be opposed to this idea simply because they’re misinformed and do not know the actual implications of a possible federation.
@@zedero8
Well why not explain what these implications are so I'm not so misinformed?
@@mijicmugendo what? What exactly do you need to hear? Average people are not aware of political systems, thus most of them misunderstand the ideals of European federalism. If you go out in the street right now and ask people about their thoughts on it, half of them will respond that it’s a terrible idea because “muh sovereignty!!” or “4th reich!!” and the other half will respond that they have never heard of such a thing. This is why this whole thing is a slow-pacing project, the uninformed masses would freak out otherwise.
@@zedero8
So what do you think a EU federation will be?
Really good. Thank you dude
Glad you liked it!
I think part of it is the lack of R&D budgets, investment in startups and just innovation in general.
A gem of a video!
I think there are some fair problems pointed out here like our declining population and worsening population pyramid and the vetoes blocking the quick decision-making required to handle crises (and our stupid austerity policy), but at the same time I think there are some asterisks that deserve to be mentioned.
For example, climate change will almost certainl change migration patterns which could, for better or for worse, increase population growth in the EU due to migration by then. There's also the fact that while a worsening population pyramid is never good, 1.6 workers per pensioner in 2080 may not be as bad then as it would be now. If the productiveness of technology and amount of automation continue to go up then those 1.6 workers in 2080 could well produce as much value as the 2.8 workers did in 2021.
As for companies, Europe does have at least some problems in this area and probably some (especially in tech) that should be looked at and improved. However, I would say there is also a relevant trade-off here. America probably has stronger and more competitive companies, but it has come at the cost of their democracy (which is infused with corporate cash everywhere) and the wealth of the average American. Europe might have less competitive companies overall but that comes with a more stable democracy, better labour conditions and a more equal distribution of wealth and resources among the population (which means a better life for the average European who doesn't have to fear going bankrupt due to medical bills like Americans do).
As for the crisis thing... yeah, the current consensus-based structure of the EU is terrible for crisis situations. This, I fear, is an area where only further EU integration can truly allow us to improve. Shared debt, scrap most vetoes, a true common fiscal policy, a parliament which is fully empowered to propose new legislation in these times, etc. Also, austerity is a terrible economic policy in a recession. I think that should be obvious by now.
Do you think printing more money and devaluing the currency over time is really solving any issues? This really coause negative effects to people's savings (and relaying on debt like the US isn't very nice). For the other issues (2nd, 3-rd and 4-th paragraph) I agree with you.
You forgot about the 10 million man Muslim standing army that invaded Europed without firing a shot. Europeans seem to be in denial about this. Fortunately France has helped remind Europe.
Perfect analysis
I can't imagine that Russia stays where they are right now (6th) and a modern, free and innovative country like Germany falls 4 places? What kind of logic is behind this projection?
Fijn kanaal! Subbed!
Good video. I agree that the EU should strive to be more innovative, but we should never forget that Europe is inherently less competitive by purely economical metrics due to high investments in social security and guaranteed living standards for their citizens. If youd bring measures like happiness, health and civil rights into this equation, the EU would be far ahead of China and the US. I think this is one of the most important assets the EU has because it actually makes it a credible global diplomatic and developmental actor when it comes to promoting global cooperation in regards to human rights, climate change mitigation and sustainable democratic development. Same cannot be said about the US who might be on the brink of an authoritarian, populist and denialist policy swing (not to mention the USs marred human rights record and their tendency to act unilaterally to the detriment of global cohesion) or China for obvious reasons.
High investment in social security might be a big asset if used correctly. Europeans always gets a soft landing compared to Americans where it can get ugly if you go bust. (Homeless,medical care etc)
Yes because Euro countries records on human rights in the not so distant past are so clean. Fucking please.
@@chickenfishhybrid44 What are you referring to ?
@@ab-gu2nh @a b Hmm WW2/holocaust, holodomor/various atrocities committed by Soviets, various things relating to colonies in Africa done by the French and others.
@@chickenfishhybrid44 Thought you were gonna bring up smth more recent.
I dont see your logic here, if we were to hold that standard to everyone no one has a good human rights record.
And TODAY EU is the biggest Aid donor etc. so things can and has changed.
very good video ...
Thank you!
Thanks
Thank you :) Very kind! and happy you enjoy the content :)
Magnificent
Congratulations for your videos, you are doing a great job 🇪🇺
Let me guess: by your accent i think you are a Dutch guy 😉
Greetings from Italy, you have another subscriber 👍
Well heard :) i am.
Thank you for subscribing. Great to have you on board !
I think your videos are great, very informative.
Thank you for making amazing content! ❤️🇪🇺
Cool
Good
Love your channel! Great content.
A Europe without Europeans is not Europe.
One thing that allways botters me, is that the EU wants everything but lacks detailed planning for all of that
Like
They want to help Ukraine
Help countries reviver from covid
Have a better lifestyle
Reduce their emissions
Grow economicly
Increase inovation
Digital transition
Material independence
More influence in the world specially Africa
Become strongger milotarely
In most cases they don't even have good plans for the subject and when they do it gets into burocracy and budget cuts due to other objectives
Yes its a long list. But the part of the problem is unanimity... Any ambitious ideas will most likely be shot down by at least 1 member state
@@EUMadeSimple Not even the idea, when they do have a good plan that isn't just "throw money at it" they differ in their plans and veto makes it hard. This is specially true for the project in Africa
@@EUMadeSimple I think that was one of the reasons why UK left since there were many talks but lacks the action plan to implement them.
Similar to Nato's application or joining free trade groups such as ASEAN... all member (of its original member) needs to consent in approving new membership.
I wonder if its possible to adopt proposals where if the vast majority of the members agree - then action can be taken as a collective EU but won't be enforced upon members who didn't agree with the proposal.
e.g Finland's application for Nato and Turkey wants to shoot it down.
Then the "attack for one is an attack on all" will only apply to members who consent to Finland's application where Turkey can sit it out if Finland is attacked.
Vice versa- Finland can sit out if Turkey is attacked. ~this is my out-of-the-box (Europe)'s opinion~ members who didn't agree with any proposal that has the super majority (75-80% of member state's support) can still sign on later.
Detailed planning by whom? Politicians? Corporations? Think tanks?
@@Jonasz42069 Competent politicians I guess? But that may be asking for to much
I mean, there are some, meloni and Macron in my opinion are fine. But surely not by Scholz or Von Der Lyen, they're shit man
I also think its perfrectly plausible for an EU comeback. For exemple, there's ecosia wich is a European search engine (it depends on Microsoft but its already something)
Fairphone is finally growing
Europe also has great control over the food industry being it food production directly for anything related (For exemple, soft drinks)
Ecosia is a cool example :) but sadly it's miles off Google. Just looked it up: 5.5 million users vs. 1.17 billion users
@@EUMadeSimple Ecosia has 20 million I think, still far from Google BUT it is growing and thats the important part
Sadly it still depends on Microsoft
@@EUMadeSimple I use Qwant as my main search engine. It is kilometers ahead of Google in privacy.
@Joaquim Barbosa; an alternative to Fair Phone is Shift Phone. Upgradeable and repairable. I have a Shift 6mq. Great phone
But what about automatization and robotics?
I really like your presentation style. Your arguments are logical and your accompanying graphics are very clear. Since I discovered your channel, I’ve been watching it instead of Netflix every evening. Thanks!
That is great to hear. Thank you :) happy you enjoy the videos
From the top 6 european economies 4 of them are in crisis, italy and sapin have gave out very slow or even no growth with massive debt on both of them, russia is sanctioned, britain out of the single market is performing so bad, the only two left are france and germay even france is walking on a tight rope. If any crisis hit france the whole continent will suffer. With a big young population Asia will see this as a good opportunity while usa will sit in the middle benefitting from both as remaining as the super power.
That simple fact was known at the time UK joined the EU, we could not compete against the biggest players alone. How did we forget that simple logic?
I thought you had a million subs. Suprised to see it's not that high ;D
haha maybe one day
Well, bureaucracy doesn't really work does it?
Absolutely
Great Video! And you really doubled down with upgrading mic quality!
However I would like to add that although having you as presenter overlayed is interesting, I noticed my focus shifting between you and the info graphics quite a bit which for me felt a little distracting all in all. So I would prefer classic voice over to have my visual focus on the quality graphics you create.
Asking to like and subscribe is fine with me as I've read that if asking in a video actually more people tend to like and sub. But considering the informative educational nature of your content, it feels off putting the segment in the middle of the video. I feel like people who would want to sub to see more of your content would do so after watching the whole video. I know many put the segment in the middle of the video, but usually in more entertainment focused content, where you feel like you can easily tune out to click the button and scroll some comments passively continueing watching. This doesn't really work in info-videos at least for me cause I want to actively watch and learn.
Thanks for the feedback Seb. I have gotten similar feedback in the comments and from friends. I am now thinking of removing the overlay from the bulk of the content and maybe just including it at the start or end.
As for the subscribe part.. i tried both (middle and end) and there is a higher uptake of new subscribers when i put it in the middle (when comparing old Videos).. so i might keep it that way for now.
@@EUMadeSimple Overlaying yourself at the beginning and outro (and at like/subscribe) seems like a good idea and gives your content a person to relate to.
Well if it performs better, you should of course keep it that way! It was just my gut feeling it might be otherwise, though I don't make content nor do I have acces to your metrics.
I like that you react so well to feedback : ) I hope it helps you grow and get some traction in the algorithm.
Of course. thanks for giving feedback. It is amazing how much other people see that I don't. It helps me get better. Feel free to let me know if you think the format has improved or not in the next video.
why are you included Germany and not EU as i believe is part of EU.
Trying to predict the future 30 years afar is almost an impossible task. Cool theory based on current projections tho.
when was eu superpower ?
Países isolados em um passado antes das duas grandes guerras. Eles espalharam suas populações para América e depois fragmentaram.
Thanks for the video
You create very informative and useful videos, but remember that ECB doesn’t print dollars :))
I can see most of your arguments. Though your second point is much too easy and a mistake many analysts make. Just looking at the largest companies does not make sense for a macro economic analysis nor a geopolitical one.
Hey, I watch alot of youtubers but I’ve got to say I really appretiate your honesty about working hard dispite not having the biggest audience. U just gained a new sub, will recommend your channel any chance I get 😁
Thanks Marko :) great to have you onboard. And appreciate the referrals.
Why are you using GDP PPP... that doesn't reflect an economic superpower.
noway people in the EU get children we can't even afford housing so never mind children.
Yes we can
@@mijicmugendo impossible
@@edgardebruin5539
How when thousands and thousands of people buy houses every year in your own country alone
@@mijicmugendo what makes it impossible to buy on a normal price
@@edgardebruin5539
I agree houses are to expensive , but that doesn't change the fact that thousands of people every year buy houses, the truth is that is Irish government policy.
But tell me , what in your opinion is a normal price?
doesn't make sense that the UK keep it at 10 after brexit
city of london / financial services
Probably because the uk is closer to the USA than any other European country?
I’m not really sure if China and India will actually surpass the US economically speaking, and less so in the military spending if they don’t become a global power like the US, also considering that China’s economy depends mainly on its exports to the US, wouldn’t that double the US economy too since the exports also consist in American companies outsourcing their factories to China? Also you have to take in consideration that China might decrease in population
this is very stupid comment , total export to the whole world only contribute 17.7 percent to total gdp of china in 2020 . and out of that 17.77 percent only approx 1/4 goes to usa
@@andia968 and you believe that? China economy depend on exports, or you think that all that China produces is for their domestic consumption? Why would they be called the factory of the world then?
you forgot hawaii (+alaska but not hawaii)
I have some big doubts about the projections
Federation. Plain and simple, we need to federate.
You're kinda leaving out that the US and China are facing some of these problems as well and even some additional ones. Chinas demographic breakdown will be much more massive than the one in the EU. It will just come a little bit later. Also zero covid is absolutely destroying their economy. I think we will figure some things out in the future. I'm not too worried.
I hope both solutions will be adopted: an expanded EU confederation. Maybe a federation would be too much for some member states to accept. Another one would be to have a more liberal immigration approach. Anyway, I know that all these solutions are extremely difficult to be taken because of vetoes and eurosceptics.
27 countries, each runs exactly same huge software projects, more or less separately - for retirees, health, police, schools, even EU subsidies for agriculture, taxes. As if we had surplus of software developers here. This part of the world is so ineffective. are out health issues so different across the continent so that we need to have health ministry in each country?
With all the people fleeing to EU. I don't think we will lose much people. But it is nesseceary to get these people into work.
I don't belive that the UK will stay in the first 10! Explain this to us please? Infrastructure in the UK is already crashing here....NHS etc. Some of your statements are correct but others again very wrong.....China and India have a huge benefit of having very large growing populations!!! That's the secret of this raising powers....I still prefer to live in Europe and the US!!!
Everything you mentioned about the EU can be also said about the UK and USA!
The capitalist glazing at the end was actually wild
Hi, I'm from Russia. We have a huge number of people who do not like the current policy of the country, and although we cannot influence it in any way today, we are sure that before 2050 Russia will become a democratic country. Tell me, what do you think about the prospects of Russia's accession to the EU in this case? And what would such a Europe look like in your opinion?
Россия слишком большая это нарушит баланс, так же как и турция
@@regieegseg8588 czcams.com/video/Gl_9K6To9eU/video.html
@@irrigant387 все убедил маленькая...осталось только этот видос в Брюссель послатб
Personally I think Russia would break up into smaller states in the event an uprising toppled putin. Western states allied to Europe, Siberia to China and central southern Russia is anyone's guess
Hi, I'm from Italy. I have always supported the idea of Russia being part of the EU, and I would love to see a democratic Motherland allied with us. We would finally be united! And we would also be unstoppable.
This idea sounds great to me, because both Russia and the EU need one another to survive among the USA and China.
How is life and public opinion like one year later? Is Putin (/politics, I mean) more or less supported?
My friend, I remember I read an article somewhere in 2007 or so, about how EU will surpass every nation economically for the next 40 years. Your analysis falls in the same category of all this types of analysis. They are basically prediction models based on current conditions. EU was the first 19 trillion dollar economy in 2008 (which stagnated since then), which only America surpased it in 2018. So if everything stays the same and absolutely no actions or changes are made, the situation will be as you describe it, but I highly doubt it. You project India will surpass us by 2050 based on current economic growth, but that's impossible to perform the same year on year. Lower income economies ussually develop faster, while high economies, growth is little, like EU.
I really love this channel. Hope you hit your 20k subscribers by the end of this year.
Countries should stand and learn from the Largest Democracy in the World to get leaders than can make this World a better place to be in.
EU not competitive in tech... if you look at consumer tech, sure. But that just ignores industrial technology.
Green fanatic deindustrialism and lack of corporations is the main cause.
1) you did not take in consideration what will happen to Russian economy because of sanctions etc in future.
2) all nice for USA… what about their debt?
3) same for China. You ever checked their corporate debt? You never saw that China’s population will decrease a lot by 2050? You think EU will have a problem with demographics? And you have no idea about the financial crisis in China because of the construction bubble?
4) EU is spending more money than anyone on green energy. Healthy environment and healthy people its the idea. Asian countries extended that period to 2070 hence they see much more growing. But for how long?
5) Over population it is not the answer. What is the reason to have so many poor people? Life standard is what one needs to consider.
You should get your facts right before doing such a video…
For the USA, the national debt doesn't mean anything, once you do the research, you'll see.
Europe is stacking their own debt now.
@@franknwogu4911 EU debt is still going to decrease the coming years.. do your research..
@@solmak47 according to?
Actually China is the largest investor in green energy by far, I'm pretty sure. As for debt, it doesn't matter that much in a state where the financial sector is closely regulated and managed by the state and proxy institutions (state banks and so on)
It’s good to see you on screen 👍
Thanks for this video🎉
Oh well, that didn't age well ... one year later and everyone is talking about the Chinese economy collapsing under extreme debt and a shrinking population.
There's no point in trying to predict 2050. We can't even predict 6 to 12 months ahead!
What about the slow deindustrialization of Europe caused by over regulation and overreach by the EU
This data includes immigrants who legally live in EU?
Yeah... Printing money, really shitty ideia on the long run.
United States of Europe?
could be interesting
Finally a channel that speaks about this.
At least I think there is one thing Europe can be a leader. It's standard of living/equality and personnal freedom. If Europe achieves all those challenges it will be a second player on World stage. But it will be by far the best place to live on earth
The United States are falling behind in sustainability and infrastructure compared to multiple countries in northern Europe and Asia.
Recent data shows that China is behind both the US and the northern Europe in most areas.
Your message is on point.
The assumptions ie economic projections and demographics are however "very classic" and doesn't take into account many of the more modern approaches to calculate wealth and ultimately happiness in a society.
Let me put it this way:
Digging a whole and filling it up again is "GDP growth" but in essence is a futile exercise...
Lastly, growth for the sake of growth is a common albeit completely bogus parameter.
Only one thing in nature has unchecked growth: Cancer. And that doesn't end well for the host.
Were these estimates made pre COVID? Because I currently don't see China overtaking the US while they are still locking down their major cities over the cold
Estimates were readjusted after covid and China actually was estimated to close the gap sooner, but this was before Ukraine and before the vaccine roll-out
You're saying printing money is good??
I recently found out about your content and I really like it.
I do have a question about your first point. You talk about why we are losing out because we have an aging population and that it will decrease our workforce, did you take into consideration with this the increase in automation and advancements in robotics? I don't think it will matter that our workforce gets smaller if a lot of the jobs are taken over by robots. For a lot of the more repetitive/ simple tasks humans are already being replaced for robots, and the type and complexity of jobs machines will be able to do will only increase. Whereas 60 years ago all cars were handmade, they are nearly completely automated today. The same goes for the medical field where AI programs are already improving the quality of diagnoses and it will only take some 5-10 more years for robots to be advanced enough to replace doctors and surgeons altogether.
So have you considered this point?
Not in this video. And you are right. This may play a role. In the end it is very ahrd to predict what will happen :)
At the moment I do not see rusia overtaking japan. Germany unlikely but maybe.
You forgot ASML, the most important of them all. Aging, yes I agree but possibly this is the solution to a sustainable futur. Regarding immigration, not missing that one.
ASML isn't more important than Samsung
So if EU was faster to implement sanctions on Russia it would have been better off economically?
Reason 4 : they can't start wars like the old days
The EU can do a little invasion into Canada
1. Fixing the cost of housing as this is to blame for fertility rates. There is a direct correlation between the two. The higher the cost the lower the birth rates.
2. Federalising. A lot of these issues are because there’s no central government, more of a nightmarish patchwork of separate states. We need unified policies for things like R&D
Let country that has 1% of the total,population to have veto vote is just crazy.
It makes no sense to compare EU and US companies above 1 Billion in Revenue, because Europe has an extremely strong small business sector. Competition and labor standards are very high in Europe and government don't shy away from nationalizing too big to fail players. Thus, I would argue that the EU as an advantage that not many others have been able to replicate because its able to quickly adapt and is able to innovate.
And yes we dont have many "big" tech companies, but again this is a useless metric, because in europe innovation happens on a smaller scale and not by monopolizing the right to innovate to a few selected players
If...
By 2050 China will have the same living standards as the EU? No one serious should believe in this. In terms of population, China has already less than 1.36 billion people. Their numbers are inflated in every aspect possible. All these numbers are meaningless. No one can predict what will happen 5 years from now, let alone 25 years from now. Further, PPP is one of the most meaningless statistics: you can buy more stuff in China with the same amount of money, but the quality of their products is significantly lower (yes, this is relevant only to domestic products and domestic brands). For example, iPhone is even cheaper in the US than in China. The EU is the leader in investing in renewables, and this is the cutting-edge approach to providing energy. What the real implications of this economic policy will be in the long term, no one can tell.
Europe need more competitive and developing they own brand like American is simple as that.
Just look at the predictions made about Japan in the mid 1980's!
Do your research before you write
That is because the US torpedoed the Japanese economy by forcing them to sign the Plaza Accords. Japan being an occupied vassal state didn't really have a choice.
The US won't be able to do that to China, India, Brazil and Indonesia. The US is also reacking the EU economy by forcing them to sanction Russia and lose access to the cheap and easily accessible energy that subsidized the European economy and high standards of living.
If anything the predictions he is giving are being too generous on the EU.
Without cheap Russian energy the EU's economy is going to be much weaker than his prediction.
Europe economically is finished. All other sources of energy are going to be way lore expensive than cheap Russian energy.
Renewable energy are not going to do the trick. Not even close.
He isn't saying the predictions will come true, just that present a general trens of decline in Europe's importance over the years
The first problem here is that you're using GDP PPP as a measure of economic size/power. GNI is a much more reliable measure, and is less prone to distortions and tampering through financial loopholes
Its not a huge difference for major countries. The PPP part is though because there's huhe differences in prices
@@FOLIPE That's why you need to use the nominal GDP value in such cases. PPP value takes into account local prices, which makes it possible to estimate local standard of living, but is useless when comparing national economic output. How the author of this video doesn't understand such a basic concept is beyond me.