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Cracks in Canada's Housing Market Start Appearing
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- čas přidán 21. 11. 2022
- For the past 25 years, Canada has been in the grip of the world's biggest housing boom, a near unbroken run of price appreciation unparalleled among its developed peers. Now it's over, and pain is starting to spread. Bloomberg's Kevin Orland is on BNN Bloomberg discussing "The Big Take."
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After selling a couple homes in 2020, I'm anticipating a housing crisis in order to buy inexpensively. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What recommendations do you have for the best time to buy? On the one hand, I keep reading and seeing trader earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?
Most people are accustomed to a bull market and are unprepared for a crash, but if you know how to navigate and where to look, you can make a fortune.
Given that we are not accustomed to such uncertain markets, the fact that the US stock market has been on its longest bull run ever makes the widespread anxiety and excitement comprehensible. There are opportunities if you know where to go, as you noted that it wasn't difficult for me to earn more than $780k in the previous 10 months. Since I was aware that I would need a reliable and strong plan to get through these tough times, I engaged a portfolio advisor.
@@danieljackson87 That's amazing. Please let me know the name of the investment advisor you use. I've tried learning new strategies for making money in this market, but my portfolio has been in the gutter for the entire year.
@@andrewlogan7737 I left to find Julie Anne Hoover, a financial advisor, I learned about from a CNBC program. She has since provided me with entry and exit points for the equities I track. You may search her up online if you need supervision.
the question should be "why is a basic human requirement being treated as an investment speculation instead of a free market commodity?"
Better this market crashes. No one can support such crazy house prices and this kind of inflation with the peanuts income levels. You cant have a NY priced property being paid off with half the NY city income level.
True
Good, house prices need to be cut in half in some parts of the country.
In the average house hold income is 80k, houses should cost 3-4 times that. Or 240k-320k. Not 1 million.
Take a good look at Seoul's housing bubble. Housing got so expensive that rate increases on mortgages are creating panic selling by taking a 40% hit but guess what...there are no buyers. People are expecting bigger discounts up to 80%!!!! Canada is in big trouble here as I'm seeing the same liquidity issues play out.
Hello how are you doing today my friend. I hope that life is treating you fairly and that you are safe and healthy? I was going through the CZcams page and saw your comment 👋👋
How is that "big trouble"?
I dont think that can happen Alberta market has had no impact so maybe some provinces will see decline in price
Its horrendous the government let it get to this point. I know many "international students" who have never worked that have bought many condos in toronto!!!!!
Oh, man.. They are supposed to study not real Estate.. That's why locals can't purchase anything eh...!!
Back to Hong Kong for them!
When the Bank of Canada had prime interest rates in the double digits (1988) it wrecked home buying for anyone other than "kash", so in came Taiwan money (China was aiming missiles at T.) Japanese went home, in came Beijing "kash". The same thing happened with castles in Belgium, estates in Ireland; money moves fast.
@@dano3952 that was 1950:HK is a Commonwealth
You cannot be more wrong at that
Started appearing when a century home from old towns appraised for 400k. Those got sold all the way up to 600k and renovated and sold for 1-1.5million. Why did it take two more years to figure out that was dumb.
Most of them weren't even renovated.
It will be the anticipatory selling, rather than than forced-selling, that will really push the downward trend (which is going to be extremely difficult to track).
I follow ur channel mark, u should cover this angle in one of ur videos “ anticipatory selling “
Hello Mark big fan of your show!
Mark!
PANIC SELL!! Get out now and live in your truck!
Mark is the best. big fan
02:18 you're saying they had to sell their investment property not their primary home. That's great!!! We want more of those.
Those people are the middle class we need the corporate investors to lose assets not your middle class neighborhood. Without middle class we lose out on participation on sports and community growth.
Sounds like your jealous !
@@amelmatt5641 Ya millions of Canadians are jealous of people who were fortunate enough to have been born 20 years earlier.
Average house is now over 8.5 times average household gross income. The ratio was 4 in 2012. Some say once you hit 5 you have a bubble. This bubble will not burst but it will deflate over the next 6-24 months. Where the bottom is could be anywhere in that 6-24 month window. If anyone is telling you to BUY NOW block them because they are starving for fees.
They can't print houses as quickly as they print money.
Take a look at what's happening in other real estate bubbles outside Canada. They have fallen by 40% already and not stopping. These are economies that are more diversified and advanced than Canada. Exceptionalism is bizarre and I feel like those who bought a property in the past 3 years are the bag holders of a massive ponzi.
@@jokwon7343 I totally agree. The decline is in process and may take longer but anyone saying to buy now is a fraud.
@@jokwon7343 There is only one country on earth that has virtually no debt, and it is Russia. Everybody else is in trouble, and it all depends on the Federal Reserve. People that believe they will allow real estate to crash, and not bail out the banks and mortgages must have been on another planet in 2008/09.
@@daft9inety6ixer57 so why aren't you and your family in russia?
Only when AML (anti-money laundering) measures are implemented with steep prison sentences will the housing market in Toronto and area moderate.
AML is the bank's responsibility 100 fold to the realtor. AML laws and Fintrac already exist.
A 5 year example.
In 2017 you bought (or your house was worth) - say $500k
In 2022 (March) it was worth $925k after the big bubble peaked.
It increased by $425k = 85% = 13% compounded for 5 years. Mostly in 2020 and 2021.
You are a real estate genius! Refinance fast ! Buy investment properties and get rich! Fill your boots with adjustable rate cheap debt.
BUT - If that same house had increased 3% a year for 5 years it would be worth $580k after 5 years.
AND NOW = If the market falls by 38% from the 2022 peak then that $925k value will become $580k.
Yep. Drop of $340k from $925k is drop of 38%.
What is happening in your area? Maybe smaller markets will feel less pain but their bubbles were smaller?
Hello how are you doing today my friend. I hope that life is treating you fairly and that you are safe and healthy? I was going through the CZcams page and saw your comment 👋👋
I just went through a purchase in Montreal recently and I did not find the market was glutted by properties. Far from it the good quality stuff set at the right price goes off the shelves pretty quick. What's left are mostly the problematic items (Dark, facing a grey wall, noisy and polluted street, old and crappy, etc...) that nobody wants to buy.
True that! As a probable seller, knowing my property is good. I’m going to hold off selling for a few years to get better gains.
@@ersandy4u Buyers also holding off because they expect massive discounts, all it takes is a few sellers to start panic and your home will be worth a lot less than today.
It’s still early. People have residual COVID cash. Rates just started climbing. Prices have already dropped based on rates alone. Once job loss and recession kicks in things will change, defaults will creep in. MSM will not report on it. This will be a 2-4 year issue. Rates will be up for a few years defaults will happen. We have to watch the renewals it’ll all be there - ask your banker what’s going on. I was speaking with my banker the other day an she said it’s already very scary for renewals. Mortgages going up $1000 plus per month.
It’s mandatory not optional. Inflation is the Grim Reaper. - blood everywhere IF they choose that route - they won’t. Fed will raise and hold on the rates. Let the defaults happen.
@@alexpearson8481 "MSM will not report on it." 100%
@@alexpearson8481 The nowadays rates in Canada are fairly normal to me and even on the low side considering the mortgages rates are still lower than the overall CPI. We will maybe see a temporary growth pause in real estate prices but it will definitely not crash, at least for the value items. Too many people are waiting for the perfect property there in Canada. But if you want to buy a lemon then yes, there may be an opportunity soon. Lol.
If the housing bubble broke I would be the happiest person in the world. Who cares if there is a rescission let it all fall! Tired of houses costing millions for a crappy bungalow.
I feel so sorry for people that fundamentally don't understand how unfair monetary policy dynamics are now. It's not that houses are going up... people are getting poorer because they're being paid with dollars which are going down.
Everyone is going to be (as my buddy in West Van. says) house poor, and Hydro and food rich (price wise-) I planned on losing weight anyway.
Wow finally someone who understands this dynamic ....ive literally never heard anyone mention this except you.
Ive been telling people around me its not that houses are going up, its that your money is becoming worthless...
Kudos for understanding this.
@@LeedawG766 They are basically flat against gold... the houses literally have not gone up
@@daft9inety6ixer57 do you mean fundamentally gold?
@@Geoe423 not sure I fundamentally understand what you mean. Take the home price and denominate it in gold rather than dollars. So a USD$175,000 house is worth 100 ounces troy of gold.
I'm from Ontario and I'm still not seeing it. I do not work on the real estate industry for disclosure. GTA freehold homes that are attractive and in demand are still going for multiple offers and immigrants are paying for it with CASH
Canadian🇨🇦 housing problems started with Chinese🇨🇳 money laundering, drug trade and human trafficking - the first being the biggest.
Spot on
It's more complicated than that as foreign ownership isn't that big. Government tightening mortgage rules drove panic buying too!
Annually the government is aware between b.c and Ontario 100 billion in illegal cash is snow shored into these 2 particular provinces ever year they even have a documentary on it the government knows but welcomes it as a boost to the economy.....
@@jaymar1615 Vancouver has more foreign investment and the most ridiculous prices but that is also because people want to stay there and live and land is limited with the ocean on one side and mountains on the other. Im stretched climate is a factor in wanting to live there but affordability is crazy. That being said, you don't set policy for an entire country based on 2 cities with ridiculous prices? 🙄
WTF, Chang, I know you are from Taiwan, the republic of China, but you don’t have to smear China on everything, shame on you the self - hatred Chinese
Keep raising rates, Mortgage fraud is super rampant in market.
They will just differ for the ultra rich because that will cause too much damage. Thus, your dream will never come true.
Raise rates on multiple homes. Single family homes by citizens should be a slightly lower price. Luxury tax on 50% or more down if own more than one house. Business tax on investment speculation.
Let's drive the bad actors out of the market.
@@AM.000 this is exactly what the average citizen needs to have a fair shot at the housing market !
Every single day hundreds of Canadian homes are being transferred to foreigners.
Why are Canadians now suddenly vastly outnumbered in overcrowded Canadian cities?
Because that’s not true? 🤷
I’m guessing you haven’t seen Canada lately
Canadians are now vastly outnumbered in overcrowded Canadian cities
@olgapredger5488 no. Most of Canada has been bought by foreigners using funny money the last decade
@olgapredger5488 the government intentionally designed it to take effect after most of Canada’s homes are transferred. It’s all part of The Great Reset/Replacement
@olgapredger5488 just look at the name on the sign they used for this video. That’s not a Canadian selling that Canadian home.
Sub prime loans also called the Brampton loan are going to be the first ones to fall. Then ones markets get over run with new listings, prices will drop 50% to 80% before bottoming out in late 2023.
Hey what is a sub prime loan?
@@sum7866.. he's bull shitting and doesn't know what he's talking about. "sub prime loans" have almost nothing to do with housing, and in big and small cities the housing is often CLEAR TITLE: no money owed. 25 years of up MEANS you had the chance to pyramid your gains, and Canadians put their money in their mattress: i.e. their home first, like so many europeans. NOT extending themselves like American consumers.
Bad loans, loaning people who can't afford
50% - 80%?!?!?!
If you’re a home owner then I’m assuming you’ve already sold? You’re gunna re-buy at the bottom, yeah?
So you figure I’ll be able to buy a 1000 squ ft condo in the lower mainland for $200k - $300k by the end of next year? I’ll take that bet!
Tell me you're not a home owner without telling me you're not a home owner...
To a certain extent, the market will depend on anticipated interest rates and house price expectations regarding future prices. If the current lending rates decrease, the market will stabilize. However, if we are going back to historical rates (9-10%), average house prices will be determined by a multiple of average household earnings X rate = approx. $340K using current income figures in Canada.
I find it funny that people are still holding out on rates decreasing, it can't, when our currency is backed by the US dollar and there are far too much in money in the economy fueling asset bubbles like housing. Guess what happens when those dollars are reabsorbed, rates do not come down.
Ten percent interest rates would mean I can again start buying million dollar sports cars. Greenspan and Bernanke stole millions of dollars in interest off of me.
@@jokwon7343 Rates come down when the market goes down. That's the only way.
Why is housing even seen as a bloody investment. I hope it tanks on every housing investor
I hope everyone who flips homes for investment gets burned badly here. They are the reason prices pushed people out of the market and I hope they lose theirs too.
“Printing money” is not what happened. Printing and buying bonds is more accurate. Borrowing from Peter to pay Paul.
Issuing credit and guaranteeing debt to inject liquidity for years.
Stimulus for big ticket buying. Low prime = low consumer loans and mortgages.
All provided by governments either by issuing bonds, buying MBS or guaranteeing debt with loan insurance.
The Fed in the US did the same thing buying trillions of debt from banks and mortgage lenders.
Where do you think all that cheap money came from for 10 years?
When all that debt rolls over the real impact will hammer home.
Buckle up if you own real estate that is leveraged.
The bankers in Iceland were all imprisoned for doing the same thing.
I'm buckling up because I don't have a mortgage.
Let the bubbles pop.
Average Canadian owns multiple homes. They treat it like investment
When they play with fire they shouldn't be surprised to get burned.
Average Canadian is scraping by they don't own multiple homes. What ring planet you live on?
@@marbarosi Canadians have always put their money into their home, and many are European based or Asian: you pay off your home first. The renters I do know are in homes owned by the previous generation (mine). The ring planet types are on "farewell" and if they won the lottery they'd blow it at the local Casino: they have other problems we aren't going to solve, so we give them subsidized housing. Canada's pretty good about that.
@@Dwightstjohn-fo8ki though the AVERAGE Canadian doesn't own more than one home, like are friend suggests. We are heading into some dark times, which I believe will end with CBDC rollout to fix everything. That might not happen next year, but it's the plan in motion if you understand the game plan which is pop every bubble and currency bubble. Derivative everything bubble is gonna pop and when it does the government will be powdering their nose with the solution, but first! they want everyone to go through hard times to want it.
@@marbarosi Most of my neighbors have multiple homes and I live in a middle class area.
Everytime I see a Homelife Realtor I shudder. This is a foreign investor / foreign immigrant realtor selling to other foreign investors. This realtor does not result in houses being in Canadian hands. No profits go into the hands of Canadian citizens. Its foreign people profitting on land they have no rights to.
beginning of 2022, houses climbed %10, then lost %10. It means prices didn't change, Canada needs more aggressive interest hikes to lower the housing price to reasonable price. Canada is cold and people cant live in the street, housing must be affordable . Canada government failed providing basic needs to Canadians.
Most people who are forced to sell are "investors" making 50k per year but somehow own a detached house and 3 condos. I have no sympathy. Who cares.
Who is crazy enough to buy at an astronomical prices garbage houses in a garbage country
The Chinese will buy anything at any price as long as the prices are rising not falling.
Australian housing market is almost identical. Need to look outside your backyard when reporting.
Homes cost less there and are in better shape. The currency is also I think about 10 percent less than the Canadian dollar. I haven't looked in quite awhile.
I don’t get it! People that have mortgages aren’t most of them fixed rates? So how does the mortgage cost on current mortgages increase? Does Canada not do fixed rates?
They come up for renewals. People can choose to have their mortgages renew in 1, 2, 5 year increments etc. So you have to renew at whatever the market rates are at that time. If you have a mortgage from late 2017, it's coming due now. The only difference is these people bought their homes at FAR lower prices then so I'm not sure the higher rates will kick them out. If it does, how tf are people buying homes today supposed to deal with it.
51% of mortgages during the Plandemic were variable. 80% of those were fixed payment with a trigger rate. Some have hit it, but think all will hit it by December 7th hike.
@@truthteller6743 where have you found those numbers?
@@anita77771 Got from several sources. Banks are trying to keep people in these mortgages, but another hike might force many to put there house on the market. 2023 might turn into a fire sale. I'd still wait. For reference, the 2008 US housing crash didn't bottom till 2012.
First of all you have to refinance at 5 years anyway, plus variable rate mortgages are cheaper than fixed so people thought they were smarter than the central banks.
Building _upwards_ while halting expansion _outwards_ causes home prices and rents to skyrocket, shunting the lifetime earnings of residents squarely into the pockets of the chosen few. Those most affected cheer each time another tract of land is "protected" tightening the snare on their own demise. A quarter million homeless in Canada with 1000 deaths each month. A major issue in this country is the vast expanse between cities, but no land may be spared for housing. Organized protest in an effort to save a grove of trees meets each attempted use of land, yet forest extends all the way from the West Coast to the East Coast.
This artificially created land shortage serves the purpose of financial institutions, but costs consumers from five to above twenty times the normal price of a home. For each $100,000 of market price, if land is $20,000 and the building is $80,000 lenders will not advance funds beyond the value of the indestructible portion, which is the land, itself. A deliberately restricted supply caused prices to skyrocket with the cost of the building and the cost of land exchanging places in the equation. Now, for each $100,000 spent on a home the building accounts for $20,000 of the purchase price and land makes up the remainder, which is $80,000. Banks lend an amount that matches the indestructible portion of the acquisition, which is land. In an ironical twist this arrangement enables buyers to finance their purchase by paying several times the normal cost of a home.
Canada produces cereal crops and livestock that are its staples, which are grown some distance from cities. We have highways and railways to haul in these products. This country also produces some fruit and vegetables during a relatively short growing season. The reality is that 95% of the food that we consume arrives from or through the USA. Major retailers are not going to snub reliable suppliers in order to acquire local produce for a few weeks each year. That has not kept land from being declared "agricultural" in an effort to prevent its use for housing and that has inspired movements to place a halt on the use of _all_ land. In order to save land for agriculture, forest land should be made available on which to construct homes. Legislation and regulations have severely restricted the home building and home improvement industries, the two industries for which we are admirably suited with our abundance of land, lumber, stone, minerals and other material. We have skyrocketing property prices preventing people from becoming established and a growing gulf between property owners and the remainder that cannot be bridged with any amount of effort.
Housing has been turned into an unregulated financial paper market, with public officials that personally benefit at the expense of citizens, setting conditions to constrain supply that results in skyrocketing prices, with rent at maximum levels and home ownership beyond reach.
*Footnotes:*
¹ A result of this cunning _sleight of hand_ is that purchasers make a down payment of $200,000 and finance the remaining $800,000 for a home that should only cost $200,000 to begin with if it were not for a deliberately restricted supply that caused prices to escalate to absurd levels.
² Cities were built on fertile flood plains at the confluence of rivers. Halting use of land beyond these areas that were developed a century earlier does nothing to enhance agricultural production, while astronomical price levels make this land unfeasible for growing crops.
³ Average price of a home in Vancouver in 1969 was $23,939. In Winnipeg $13,588. That equals $23,939/$7284 = 3.3 years salary in Vancouver of a new degree holder or $13,588/$7284 = 1.9 years salary in Winnipeg.
¹³ Civic governments reap a bonanza from inflated property assessments.
It’s called the Tax Plantation.
Million dollar homes bring in far more tax than fifty thousand dollar homes.
Then more people are brought to the farm.
Each new house raises the power of government through its taxation plan.
@@TheUrbanGaze no
@@TheUrbanGaze I didn’t say anything about the veracity of your statement.
More along the line of no, I don’t want a train nation.
@@guineapigzed I can understand that position. What would you want instead, then, in order to allow the price of housing to drop?
Be careful when you mention the big bubble in Canada housing market.
The big housing bubble is located in two cities: Toronto and Vancouver. These 2 cities represent only 24% of Canada population.
Contrary to the USA and Europe where people budget are crushed with high utility costs. In Canada electricity and gas are very cheap.
Canadian banks cannot issue a mortgage for more than 80% of the evaluation. The mortgages are subject to a 3-percentage point stress test. The people requesting a mortgage must be able to afford the payment of the interest specified in the contract, plus an additional 3%. The affordability criterion is the total mortgage payment must be a maximum of 30% of household revenue.
I’m sorrry…did you say gas in Canada was cheap?
You should consider mortgage fraud is high
@@joeyjoejoeshabadoo6107 Hey Joey joe Joe Joe, You have to know the Canadian vocabulary : In Canada you do not put gas in cars, you put gasoline!!!
@@fabionaps Hey Fabio you are disconnected and lost!
@@lambertois11 relax! I already said I’m
Sorry
Duh ... anyone that uses logic vs. ignorance to assess situations could have told you the Great Canadian Ponzi scheme was bound to collapse eventually.
Those with investment properties will have a tough time because of the foreign buyer restrictions.
No.
Canada will open more immigration
Too bad so sad.
What foreign buyer restrictions?
It's not foreigners investing in multiple properties, it's Canadian greedy investors.
@@MM-qv5lf investor category immigrant. It’s foreign money being pulled into Canada. By new rich Canadian immigrants.
House prices need to fall it’s crazy that a bungalow is going a 1.2. Million. I am waiting for a housing crisis waiting for a crash like 2008! Or bigger. Rents are high mortgage is high food prices are high. Living in Canada is expensive people need to have lots of money in order to make it….. I have a friend they bought a small semi detached house for 850,000 what a joke😅😅😅😅😅😮😮. He was paying high rent then he thought it would be smart to buy a house know he is paying more mortgage 🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄. And other cost that comes with a house .
Most times it amazes me greatly the way I move from an average lifestyle to earning over 63k per month, utter shock is the word. have understood a lot in the past few years to doubt that opportunities abound in the financial markets, The only thing is to know where to focus.
@Olivia George Anyways not actually, what I know about trading almost borders on zilch lol. I make huge profits on my investment since I started trading with Mrs Debbie Ramirez, her trading strategies are top notch coupled with the little commission she charges on her trade.
@@williamadams2361 Pardon please.
@@williamadams2361 That's a real success story in my opinion, please are you giving her your money or your coin?
@@philimonleo6195 My account just mirrors her trades in real-time that's the idea behind copy trading. so my coin stays right in my trading account.
@@philimonleo6195 She gives her client's access to her trading site whereby they can monitor their trades on daily basis
They have come down aot more then 10 percent, time to tell the truth
So this mostly likely will affect people who got greedy and bought more homes than they could afford ?
Hello how are you doing today my friend. I hope that life is treating you fairly and that you are safe and healthy? I was going through the CZcams page and saw your comment 👋👋
Looking like a kid in adult clothes
It will drop down more than %50 from here in Ontario. Don’t be stupid to buy now.
A mortgage is cheaper than rent.
A mortgage is a 30 or more year lease with the bank as your landlord.
In 30 years I’ll have a house that’s worth a million and you’ll still be paying rent for your rented apartment. Lol
In 1 year many Canadians are going to be under water...
@@EE-ie9gm a house comes with many other expenses.
You should see my property tax bill and maintenance saving fund
Need popcorn
Move to north pole its good deal out there
The stock market has been a really tough one this past year, but I watched an interview on CNBC where the anchor kept mentioning " karina mattis ". This prompted me to get in touch with her, and from August 2022 till now we have been working together, and I can now boast of $540,000 in my trading portfolio.
That's right, getting in touch with a consultant during the pandemic was how I was able to scale through the crazy stock downtrend.
That's massive. Can you please connect me with your personal broker, I would love to work with her
Like I said earlier , her name is karina mattis , and you can reach her via her website.
Just run a search on her name, and you would see all you need.
Thanks for the info . Found her website and it really impressive
Let the carnage begin
Sounds like bitcoin, prices only go up not down!
Toron
Wow
FINALLY
Toronto is world class city. It deserves world class home price. Look at Sydney, AUS - much lesser than Toronto with higher home price tag. If you've been around the world, you should know Toronto's home price is easily justifiable. Fed will accept half a million immigrants every year. Majority of 'em will settle in Toronto. Home prices will skyrocket again - supply & demand ✌️
Toronto really isn't that nice. Stop thinking you're a Vancouver.
"Toronto is a world class city" - Toronton
Have you ever been to Sydney ? Nothing to compare with Toronto …. Much richer and nicer $$$ Really.
A lot will go to Vancouver so they don't freeze to death living on the street in the winter.
Toronto is not a world class city at all
Background booty!
Wow look at that beautiful woman at 0:08 must be very distracting to her coworkers!
How do you know she is beautiful when you cant even see her face
Humanity vs made up paper
Exorbitant prices are the broken system. Falling prices is the cure. Such fucked up definitions.