🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw 00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 00:37 - Ash Bennington introduces Cem Karsan 01:00 - Current Market Overview: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Performance 01:33 - Comparison to 2017 Market Environment 02:06 - Historical Low Volatility and Correlation in 2017 02:38 - Structured Products and Market Impact 03:08 - Structured Product Demand Driving Volatility Supply 03:41 - Consistent Market Buying Due to Structural Phenomena 04:10 - S&P 500 Equal Weight Performance 04:38 - Understanding Market Dynamics and Price Action 05:11 - Trading Volume in Index vs. Constituents 06:12 - Example: Nvidia's Earnings Impact 06:48 - Correlation and Dispersion in the Market 07:21 - Mechanical Arbitrage and Market Impact 08:58 - Volatility Suppression and Increased Underlying Volatility 09:32 - Consequences of Volatility Compression 10:04 - Speculating in Zero DTE Options 11:05 - Risks of Excessive Speculation and Leverage 12:14 - Potential for Volatile Explosions 12:46 - Real Vision Community Invitation 13:09 - Historical Context: LTCM and XIV Collapse 14:21 - Overleveraged Entities and Market Impacts 15:43 - Risks Concentrated in Zero DTE Options 16:42 - Zero DTE Options Explained 17:22 - Institutions Using Zero DTE for Hedging 18:36 - Market Maker Challenges with Zero DTE 19:37 - Profitable Speculation in Zero DTE Options 20:10 - Realized vs. Implied Volatility in Zero DTE 21:09 - Foundational Knowledge: Gamma and Delta in Options 22:06 - Market Maker Hedging and Reflexive Effects 24:58 - Gamma's Impact on Market Volatility 25:33 - Zero DTE Options and Market Dynamics 26:38 - Reflexive Loop in Zero DTE Hedging 27:16 - Current Market Dynamics and Structural Risks 28:24 - Macro Factors: Dollar Strength and Emerging Markets 30:07 - Distribution of Volatility Outcomes 31:12 - Potential Market Wobble Scenarios 32:12 - Speed and Acceleration in Market Movements 34:01 - High Frequency Data and Volatility Hedging 35:10 - Short-term vs. Long-term Market Outcomes 36:14 - Structural Time and Sumo Market Analogy 38:23 - Realities and Fundamentals in Market Pricing 39:19 - Potential Structural Issues and Volatility 40:23 - Federal Reserve's Position and Structural Problems 41:30 - Market Machine and Volatility Cycles 43:24 - Fundamentals vs. Short-term Market Flows 44:31 - Voting Machine vs. Weighing Machine in Markets 45:36 - Near-term Market Outlook: Summer of George 47:15 - Expected Market Rally and Volatility into August 49:51 - Potential Market Pullback and Rally Scenario 52:34 - Strategy: Long-dated Calls and Short-dated Options 53:02 - Summary and Final Thoughts on Market Structure 53:29 - Historical Election Year Market Performance 54:44 - End of Year Market Flows and Wealth Effect 55:49 - Closing Remarks and Real Vision Invitation
I'd love to see Cem with Mike Green and how the lense each of them use to view market structure work together. Green with his talks of the passive investment flows and how that compares and contrast with Cems talk of Vol and gamma loops
Mike Green is a hall of fame circle talk artist and a Junior Varsity contemporary of Cem. Bounces from Job to job and never has anything come to fruition with his thesis
That first argument sounds convincing, but assumes there is a fixed amount of investment moving between stocks. If new investment comes in (ie cash that has not been deployed) then it is shot to pieces?
You bring up a valid point about the assumption of a fixed amount of investment. It's important to consider all scenarios when analyzing stock movements.
That's essentially the point being made as to why this heavy amounts of dispersion is bullish. If volatility is pinned at the index level then essentially the only thing that causes the market to break range is passive flows which of course we have every single day. So long as volatility doesn't become unpinned then the general trend of the market will ultimately move higher.
Pluto in the 12th house life. Jesus had it, Anne Frank had it, trump has it. The house of rebirth and transformation. His is in Leo. “Leos with this placement are likely to experience intense dreams and visions. They have a strong spiritual inclination and may be drawn towards mysticism.” Also seen as the underdog and a voice against the status quo. Pretty spot on
🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw
00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049
00:37 - Ash Bennington introduces Cem Karsan
01:00 - Current Market Overview: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Performance
01:33 - Comparison to 2017 Market Environment
02:06 - Historical Low Volatility and Correlation in 2017
02:38 - Structured Products and Market Impact
03:08 - Structured Product Demand Driving Volatility Supply
03:41 - Consistent Market Buying Due to Structural Phenomena
04:10 - S&P 500 Equal Weight Performance
04:38 - Understanding Market Dynamics and Price Action
05:11 - Trading Volume in Index vs. Constituents
06:12 - Example: Nvidia's Earnings Impact
06:48 - Correlation and Dispersion in the Market
07:21 - Mechanical Arbitrage and Market Impact
08:58 - Volatility Suppression and Increased Underlying Volatility
09:32 - Consequences of Volatility Compression
10:04 - Speculating in Zero DTE Options
11:05 - Risks of Excessive Speculation and Leverage
12:14 - Potential for Volatile Explosions
12:46 - Real Vision Community Invitation
13:09 - Historical Context: LTCM and XIV Collapse
14:21 - Overleveraged Entities and Market Impacts
15:43 - Risks Concentrated in Zero DTE Options
16:42 - Zero DTE Options Explained
17:22 - Institutions Using Zero DTE for Hedging
18:36 - Market Maker Challenges with Zero DTE
19:37 - Profitable Speculation in Zero DTE Options
20:10 - Realized vs. Implied Volatility in Zero DTE
21:09 - Foundational Knowledge: Gamma and Delta in Options
22:06 - Market Maker Hedging and Reflexive Effects
24:58 - Gamma's Impact on Market Volatility
25:33 - Zero DTE Options and Market Dynamics
26:38 - Reflexive Loop in Zero DTE Hedging
27:16 - Current Market Dynamics and Structural Risks
28:24 - Macro Factors: Dollar Strength and Emerging Markets
30:07 - Distribution of Volatility Outcomes
31:12 - Potential Market Wobble Scenarios
32:12 - Speed and Acceleration in Market Movements
34:01 - High Frequency Data and Volatility Hedging
35:10 - Short-term vs. Long-term Market Outcomes
36:14 - Structural Time and Sumo Market Analogy
38:23 - Realities and Fundamentals in Market Pricing
39:19 - Potential Structural Issues and Volatility
40:23 - Federal Reserve's Position and Structural Problems
41:30 - Market Machine and Volatility Cycles
43:24 - Fundamentals vs. Short-term Market Flows
44:31 - Voting Machine vs. Weighing Machine in Markets
45:36 - Near-term Market Outlook: Summer of George
47:15 - Expected Market Rally and Volatility into August
49:51 - Potential Market Pullback and Rally Scenario
52:34 - Strategy: Long-dated Calls and Short-dated Options
53:02 - Summary and Final Thoughts on Market Structure
53:29 - Historical Election Year Market Performance
54:44 - End of Year Market Flows and Wealth Effect
55:49 - Closing Remarks and Real Vision Invitation
I'd love to see Cem with Mike Green and how the lense each of them use to view market structure work together. Green with his talks of the passive investment flows and how that compares and contrast with Cems talk of Vol and gamma loops
Mike Green is a hall of fame circle talk artist and a Junior Varsity contemporary of Cem. Bounces from Job to job and never has anything come to fruition with his thesis
Great breakdown on how the macro could change these remaining months. Also the tell tale sight of a structural change. Thanks RV and Cem.
We appreciate your feedback!
Well said. Great material.
Thank you so much for your kind words!
Nailed it on vol amp up heading into August. Also had some broad thoughts on Japan which were interesting
Thanks!
Glad you enjoyed it! Thanks for tuning in!
That first argument sounds convincing, but assumes there is a fixed amount of investment moving between stocks. If new investment comes in (ie cash that has not been deployed) then it is shot to pieces?
You bring up a valid point about the assumption of a fixed amount of investment. It's important to consider all scenarios when analyzing stock movements.
That's essentially the point being made as to why this heavy amounts of dispersion is bullish. If volatility is pinned at the index level then essentially the only thing that causes the market to break range is passive flows which of course we have every single day. So long as volatility doesn't become unpinned then the general trend of the market will ultimately move higher.
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Thanks for watching!
thanks
"nuh vidia"
Thank you for watching!
LFG Krowny
Pluto in the 12th house life. Jesus had it, Anne Frank had it, trump has it. The house of rebirth and transformation. His is in Leo. “Leos with this placement are likely to experience intense dreams and visions. They have a strong spiritual inclination and may be drawn towards mysticism.” Also seen as the underdog and a voice against the status quo. Pretty spot on
First
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