Why We're Facing another 30 Years War
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- čas přidán 8. 08. 2023
- Link to common ground- / @commonground-qg5oj
Bibliography
The Global Crisis by Geoffrey Parker
The Military Revolution by Geoffrey Parker
The 30 Years War by Peter Wilson
The Little Ice Age by Brian Fagan
Europe by Norman Davies
Atrocities by Matthew White
The Culture Map by Erin Meyer
The Great Wave by David Hackett Fischer
Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin
Disunited Nations by Peter Zeihan
The End of the World is Just the Beginning by Peter Zeihan
Millennium by Ian Mortimer
Protestants by Alec Ryrie
The Next 100 Years by George Friedman
The Great Leveler by Walter Scheidel
1632 by Eric Flint
Tecniques and Technology by Lewis Mumford
Link to Common Ground-www.youtube.com/@CommonGround-qg5oj
The lack of russian mass tank assaults is not due to lack of industrial capabilities. It is a result of deliberate decision and desire not to suffer too many casulties. Russa today is not USSR. Putin can't stop dessent the way Stalin did. Modern technologies make mass manuver warfare and sudden hiden flank attacks almost impossible. The defender will always know were the attack will likely come from. Once again defence gets the upper hand and modern artillery, planes and missiles are devastateing. To survive soldiers have to dug in. The initial russian plans for quick opperation and limited ukranian resistance failed miserably. Then the russians occupied big parts of Ukraine and thurn the table - now the defending ukrainians have to attack in effort to force russians out. By doing so they are exosting more resorces (men and material). Eventualy the russians will attack when Ukraine is weak enough or will force negotiations from positions of strenght. The question is will Russia colapse economicly untill then and lost will to fight (probably not). Another posibility is involvment of other countries and widening of the conflict.
Brazil had there own version for the 30 years wars, northeastern Brazil was occupied by the Dutch and the Portuguese fought over the colony of Pernambuco. The portugues won.
Why do you ALWAYS fail to deal with the fact that we have Nukes now, and how they change all the equations?
And what do you think about this damned channel slapping a banner up there because you mention climate? =/
Does the man the myth the Legend himself reply?
Strategic bombing destroys supply lines and forces resources that would go to the front have to be used to rebuild and take care of more wounded
Is this a sign that I should become an Appalachian warlord?
Follow ur dreams dude
No better place in the world to become one
West Virginia!
dont let your dreams be dreams
Yes. Negotiate your salary by staging a military coup 😁
If you read this, I love you
Useless and meaningless comment
Love you too bud
I dont, keep quiet random bot
I love you too!
Bruh you need to conserve that shit, love doesn't just grow on trees you know.
I'm from Wyoming. Watching the illustrations of past wars in your videos, I've reached the conclusion that things have improved in one respect: we now leave the horses out of it.
Amén to that lol
At least the horses are safe now 😂
Horses are delicious. You guys are kidding yourselves.
I'm from Wyoming too. More wild horses have been killed in our state in the last 4 years than wolves.
I’m not in Wyoming no one is in Wyoming Wyoming is not real no one should ever go there
I think the path of the US during a new 30-Years War would be more similar to England during that period than any of the continental powers. Withdrawal from the world stage, a devolution into Civil War, and eventually a restoration of its original form of government.
Makes sense, since in many ways America is the cultural successor to Britain.
I agree in the so long as other world powers are too busy fighting each other but there are many variables and timing would have to be just right. If we started to fight a civil war before a world war started then surely one of the other powers would pounce at the opportunity of an America in disarray. I personally would rather fight a civil war to adhere and restore traditions of the USA and the government foundations that were originally intended than go fight what surely would be an endless war while the sissies and radical, ideologists who you know darn well would not fight, call me an evil person for going to another country and killing people, because I’d be certain that would happen just like after Vietnam.
@@EthanCarlson03You would rather kill your countrymen rather than some assholes across the ocean?
@@EthanCarlson03calm down, brother. Don't get all trigger happy just yet.
I think it depends on the upcoming elections. Trump wants a more isolated approach to the world. Biden and the establishment want the endless oversea wars. I think trump getting elected again could easily lead to another civil war. If not immediately solidify it as inevitable.
All good movies deserve a sequel
Oppenheimer 2: Electric Boogaloo
Big fan asianpie
All good movies need to end, or we will get bored of it.
"Everything that has a beginning has an end, Neo."
"I'll see your 'end' and raise you - Peter Jackson, probably."
Why not a trilogy?
I don't always agree with your conclusions, but what I really admire about you is how dedicated you are to learning about the subjects you talk about. Your love for knowledge is infectious.
Exactly this, I find myself arguing with him through out the video but he does present himself well and delves into the topics. For example he has a very anti-left bias or at least a hate boner for communism while wearing blinders to the issues of capitalism. Additionally he likes to oversimplify some historical issues down to fit his narrative sometimes for example the claim that the USA was founded on puritan ideology when the separation of church and state was written into the constitution with full intent to disallow the government from intervening wth what you choose to believe. Don't mention all the atheists who ratified the damn thing to begin with alongside the puritans, protestants and a few catholics. If hes trying to claim we were founded on some sort of religious based morale system then yeah no shit, all moral systems in 17th century were; as the idea of a purely non-religious state hadn't happened yet (to my knowledge) so what other moral system would they build off of to begin with? But to say America was founded on puritanism is lying to your audience to push a narrative. As I said I'll keep watching him but I'm near certain 60% of the people watching this just cheer every time he says "America good, Commie bad" or "Religion is required for a moral and functional society". All of those takes are so obviously tainted in bias I just hope most people can see it.
@@SuperExplosivegames I'm somewhat right, but I can definitely see the failures of capitalism (at least as it currently exists in America). He probably has a pretty wide spread of viewers if you're any indication though. He has the youthful quality of thinking that he's basically figured things out and that the problems of the country are because of X group of people, but he'll probably move away from that in time.
@@SuperExplosivegames 100% on everything you said, but I get so sad every time he gets so close to coming to the conclusions I happen to have landed on he makes a joke and then backpedals. He has admirable qualities in his reasoning and arguments but ultimately he falls back in to the great American mythos and that is why this is the first video i've clicked on of his in two years.
@@thatwasprettyneat I thinks that's a fair and empathetic synopsis. I hope he does move away from that binary mode of thinking and grows over time. Imagine how great his content would be then then!
@@gideonpace9432 He just reads about stuff and spins a fun narrative of it for the sake of it. The issue is that he thinks it matches reality, when it doesn't. He also is incredibly incompetent reading sources, he made a video on communism while admitting to not reading a single piece of Marx or Engels
Your comparison of the effects of the printing press vs. Catholic Church to the Internet vs. Academia is really cool. I have not heard of, nor considered this idea before, and it's compelling. No matter what I ultimately think about it (I do need to reflect more on it,) it is a very clever insight.
Clay Shirky talked about that idea around 15 years ago in one of his TED talks, and in more detail. He also related the invention of the internet to the 30 Years War.
@@TheJeremyKentBGross
If the Internet existed in 1618, Spotlight would also exist back then
the university system is descended from the catholic church. And in shows...
Stolen from Niall Ferguson
There is a major flaw in this comparison. Every one of the reformers were educated churchmen and many had backgrounds in Law, not plebeians who suddenly had access to some hidden knowledge. Rather German princes followed Henry the 8 model and saw the reformation as an opportunity to take wealth and lands king held by the Church. Today you don’t have quite the same competing elite on standby; virtually the entire elite class is captured. Still a good comparison but some details are wrong.
One thing you seem to be unaware of is that most armies in the 30 Years war lived off the land through marauding. There were no standing armies per se. However, Wallenstein introduced the modern concept of the logistics trail from home to field that won the day (until Richelieu sent gold to Gustav Adolf and the Hapsburgs got paranoid about Wallenstein's succes and assassinated him -- their own general).
Amazing how hard the Catholics shot themselves in the foot on that one isn’t it?
Daft gits.
Salt in the wound was the fact that the assassins were Irish and Englishmen, paid off with Wallensteins earned lands.
Couldn’t even send Germans to do the work.
Doubly ironic, considering my ancestry is German and Irish XD
He's also comparing it to a bunch of insurgents in the middle of nowhere, he's either a lobotomy patient or rage baiting
@@carsonpaulleethe middle of nowhere? Bro it's the remains of the Ottoman Empire. That collapsed only 100 years ago
The Middle East is in one of it's warring states period after an empire collapse. It's very similar to the state the Holy Roman empire was in, especially with the Shia/Sunnites taking the place of the protestants/Catholics making the situation all the more volatile
@@phil3751 and? It's still a crazy comparison and lobotomy grade historiography. You can't just say two entirely different situations are the same because some things are marginally and circumstantially similar but also vastly different in every way due to being a different time and place it just doesn't make sense...
@@phil3751 it'd be better to compare modern islamist insurgency to the Iberian insurgency of the Napoleonic wars solely because they're both insurgencies against a standing army...
I agree with Japan becoming a great power again. Ironically Japan gets the most media attention despite being in a much better position in than its neighbors. China and Korea had higher fertility in than Japan in 1990 but now Japan’s 1.3 is higher. 1.3 is still low but considering their insane working culture it’s actually fairly high. I’m really bullish about Japan overcoming the demographic crisis.
The problem is that fundamentally their birthrate problem is a cultural one
Japan going the automation route to fix their age and child care deficit to try and solve the birthrate issue is highly respectable and not the stop gap disaster of a solution western nations seem to have settled on with mass migration.
They don't have an insane work culture. Sure they work a lot, but they're not working all hours. Their work culture is one of many things contributing to their low birth rate.
@@rogerc6533it's clear liberalism = death I see all western European countries defending it into their graves
@@20thcentury_toya lot of countries’ fertility problems are cultural
"Has man gone insane?
A few will remain
Who’ll find a way
To live one more day
Through decades of war
It spreads like disease,
There’s no sign of peace
Religion and greed
Cause millions to bleed
Three decades of war
When they face death they’re all alike
No right or wrong, rich or poor
No matter who they served before
Good or bad, they’re all the same
Rest side by side now"
Is that a 2pac quote?
@@darksu6947 Sabaton
"Two ways to view the world, so similar at times: two ways to rule to world, to justify their crimes"
That line sounds a lot like Biden and Putin, or Biden and Xi, doesn't it?
@@incurableromantic4006
By kings and queens young men are sent to die at war
Their propaganda speaks those words ive heard before....
Has man gone insane!
Chills!
The remark on globalization risk at 14:40 also has echoes of the Bronze Age collapse.
But the comparison of the University Left to the Inquisition was just gold. Fascinating video
Frankly I wouldn’t worry about another massive scale war like WWI or WWII. Even the biggest superpowers are not doing too hot in any respect. Their populations are aging rapidly, their replacement rates are subpar and most have some kind of domestic issue that would make people unwilling to stick out a long war. The countries that don’t have these issues (Africa, The Middle East, etc) are simply way too small to maintain an industrial scale conflict.
There are certainly going to be wars very soon, potentially even open conflicts between superpowers, but they’re not going to reach the apocalyptic scale of WWII or the utterly soul crushing, mind numbing horror of WWI. It’ll be more like multiple nations having their own Vietnam or Afghanistan conflicts simultaneously, but largely independently of each other.
Still not necessarily good mind you, but not nearly as bad as it could be.
For me the situation by continents is something like this:
1) South America: South America, as always, will remain static. The only two countries with relative importance here are Argentina and Brazil, which are in an eternal crisis, so whether it improves or worsens, I doubt they will change the status quo. If Africa has unstable governments that are raw, South America has them half-baked.
2) North America: The most radical thing I see they could do would be an invasion of Mexico to put an end to the cartels, but knowing that these same cartels are the ones that finance both governments, I see it as unlikely. But if it happens, I wouldn't be surprised to see a civil war in which anti-cartel Mexicans fight against those who benefit from them or are against US intervention, this would destabilize the region completely so reinforces my thought that it is not going to happen.
3) Europe: The European Union is in an interesting situation on two fronts:
a) Internal affairs: The unanimity model in the EU is a failure and requires urgent change, but for this to happen... unanimity is required. I don't see it as strange that a Premium EU is created within the EU that implies entering into a more federalized model in which countries like France, Germany and the Nordics enter while the most indebted countries and those against greater political integration remain just in the monetary union
b) External affairs: The EU has an interesting dilemma, stay on the side of the US or migrate to Russia (I am aware of the war in Ukraine but let's be realistic, as soon as it is over I don't see it strange that Russian gas will be imported again, if at all EU would really care, they wouldn't buy it through India) from a resource point of view Russia is a better option but from a moral and historical point of view the United States makes more sense.The Russia thing will only happen if Putin's successor is more skillful diplomatically speaking and if the United States has a break with Europe
4) Africa: Realistically, 1 in 5 governments in the region is moderately functional. Perhaps with the demographic boom they can attract investment and take pieces of the growing flight of capital from China. I'm not sure if there will be wars (what happens in West Africa will be a model of what will happen in the future), If the war occurs and there is no intervention from foreign powers, I see it possible that the region will be destabilized for a long period of time and perhaps after this, countries without ethnic problems can finally emerge.
5) Middle East: It all depends on how quickly the energy transition is made and what the United States does here. If the transition is successful and oil consumption falls drastically and the United States abandons the region, this would be a death sentence for several countries. Perhaps of all of these, the most competent ones will be able to obtain protection from a foreign power (China, India or the US if they decide to have a limited presence).
6)India: India has good potential but I doubt it will reach the Chinese level, what happened in China occurred due to the excellent management of the Chinese government and the ingenuity of the West, things that I doubt will happen again. I am afraid of what may happen to Pakistan because both countries have nuclear weapons but without them I don't see Pakistan ever winning.
7) China: If the Chinese situation does not improve and someone like Xi jin Ping is in power I see war with Taiwan inevitable. If the invasion is genuinely successful I don't know how the world will react, but if it is a failure I foresee a regime change (not necessarily for the better).
8) Russia: If China is sick, Russia is half dead. Russia has never been able to abandon political absolutism and as always, if a high-caliber figure does not arrive (No, Putin is not one of them) Russia will once again be the isolated and backward region that it was before Peter the great and in the last 2 decades of the USSR. The best thing he could do would be: end the war in Ukraine by taking what he currently holds in exchange for Ukraine joining NATO. Get rid of Putin and get a politician more popular with the West, offer very cheap natural gas to Germany to pull ties and perhaps secure foreign investment that you can abuse to modernize your industry and become relevant again.
@@segiraldovi
Interesting takes. The only things I disagree on is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and an American intervention in Mexico.
China to put it simply doesn’t want to tangle with the US any more than the US wants to tangle with China. A Taiwanese invasion would almost certainly force the conflict neither side really wants. That being said China’s economy isn’t doing too hot and they’re going to need to start some kind of conflict to justify a war economy. My money is that the hammer blow might land on Pakistan instead of Taiwan. If war is all about money, than Pakistan is a prime candidate. China could easily justify an invasion as a peace keeping operation to stabilize the region and they also just so happened to dumped a lot of money into Pakistan through the belt and road initiative.
As for Mexico, I’m going to start by saying congratulations to the US for doing what everyone considered impossible and economically decoupling from China. All those jobs can now retu… and now they’re in Mexico. Why pay citizens of first world countries, first world wages when you can get borderline slave labor out of people with not many other options? Regardless Mexico is becoming a major trading partner with the US as China’s economic relevancy drops. Damaging Mexico in any way would justify manufacturing interests. The only conflict that could possibly happen in North America is a Second American Civil War. Not to say it’s likely, but it’s the only major conflict I could see actually happening on the continent. Canada is Canada, not necessarily known for internecine conflict. Mexico’s power balance is so heavily shifted towards the government and cartels that nothing grassroots will ever come about and the aforementioned previous two groups aren’t likely to openly fight anytime soon. Meanwhile the US population is both armed to the teeth, along with both having a history of and reasons for fighting each other.
@@My10thAccount You make a good point with China but I am not sure if Pakistan is the best option since China serves as a counterweight to India but if necessary I see it possible that they could sacrifice Pakistan to improve their image with Europe and the West in general.
The situation in the USA will depend a lot on what happens in 2024. If Biden wins, things will continue as normal (although I see it too likely that he will not finish his term). If Trump wins and things get too tense I see a second civil war as a possibility.
There literally are not enough young men for such a war in developed world. Germany for instance has HALF the men available under 30 as they had in WWII... Only could happen in India, Africa, and maybe China(due to size only)
@@w8stral
Yeah that is what happens when you spend the last century killing each other in an continent wide, industrial scale, slaughterhouse. Twice.
I love the history of The World Wars, but I hate everything about what they did to the western world. They utterly broke our spine and for what? Now we’ll be lucky if we continue into the next century at all. It’s a real god damn shame.
I have heard that without religion people will worship government and I believe it is true...
Absolutely. Or some ideology. Humans seem geared toward needing to believe in a higher power. You can have your criticisms of religion, but take that away and people will worship something, probably worse, like communism, which killed way more people than all wars of religion combined, by far (as noted in video). And I'm not even religious really, though I believe in its critical importance and want to learn more.
@@clamum9648 People need something to believe in, that is for sure.
When I studied Sociology in college, they said one of the 5 features of any civilization we have ever discovered, was Religion. Because people need to explain the unexplainable.
Science is great, but it cannot explain everything. There are things we do not know, or don't even know we don't know. And there are other things that are moral judgements, like what is happiness, what is the good life?
Science cannot answer that, because Science is a tool, a method. We need to decide what we want, and what we want to be. Equality, justice, these things are not scientific. They are moral, ethical, religious in nature.
@@shorewallthis is exactly why I hate it when people try to argue abortion with me. I mean, I don't like politics, but I do like to understand things.
I mean, I think everybody can agree that killing is bad. Therefore, the only thing left to argue about abortion is whether or not an unborn child is a person. THAT'S A THEOLOGICAL QUESTION! There's nothing scientific or provable about that. That's why it's stupid to argue about it. That's why every conflict about the topic feels like people arguing whether Jesus or Buddha is cooler, or whether the Protestants or Catholics are righteous.
It's 100% true. Humans need something bigger than themselves.
@@johncunningham8213 or lesser. The other homonins are gone. Our entire world is built around the same system we used to engineer a subspecies from wolves that we named dogs.
Your comparison to the 1600s is interesting, and it plays into a comparison I’ve made which I haven’t seen many others make, that being the Spain-America comparison. They both have a heroic founding myth (the reconquista vs 1776), they both had religious fanaticism as a key aspect of their formation (Catholicism vs Puritans), both expanded during their formative years and even created national ideals justifying the expansion (Latin America vs the Wild West, and the spreading of Christianity vs Manifest Destiny), because of their expansion their sheer size and resources elevated them in the world stage, they both became world hegemons who basically controlled the world economy (the Spanish silver dollar vs the US dollar), immediately after gaining this hegemony both enjoyed a golden age that made them the envy of the world (the Spanish golden age vs 1950s), their overemphasis on globalism slowly hollowed out the local economy causing them to economically stagnate, a factor compounded by the meteoric rise of other powers (The Dutch/England vs China), never ending wars and interventionism bled the coffers dry and buried the country in debt (Spain opposing the Protestant reformation and the Ottomans vs post ww2 America)
Very interesting
The major difference is that Spain relied on Resource Extraction Operations, whereas modern US is cutting edge in every tech field, and tech sharing in those it isn't. Spain was great because they got the gold and plantations of the New World. US is great because they used their head start to make friends with every major power it could, and subordinate them willingly into a cool kids club.
Spain had to fight the other major powers in Europe. USA doesn't really have to fight anyone. Hell, they don't even have to fight China or Russia at all. Ukraine is fighting Russia pretty well right now, and a Naval blockade on China would be devastating.
I always say, as an American, the US is a blessed country, we have crazy advantages, and we need to make sure we do the right thing. God blesses the righteous, but if we turn from Him, and our leaders and the Elites definitely have, but if the people turn from Him, then we will be blessed no more and suffer even more than others.
I very much doubt china is the one who would pick up the pieces if the us fell due to both demographic and loyalty reasons (not to mention their economy is far worse off than ours), more than likely brazil or india has a better chance at that, though india by it's nature being non-expansionist might make that take a different path if it's them.
Stop the day dreaming, it's over!@@shorewall
The comparison to Spain is awesome in its originality, and because the comparison to Rome has grown tiresome, however accurate it may be. The Chinese seem to have a better mousetrap with their spreading of influence through money rather than military might. It seems with their demographic weakness the Chinese could be economically defeated in a few decades if only the Americans would simultaneously turn on its economic engine and quit naval gazing at TikTok. However, the Achilles heel to my plan lies in our national debt, making the whole idea a pipe dream. Aaand back to the 1600s we go.
This is very well done . I love how you draw parallels , and get to the core cyclical reasons for things . I’m about 10 min in and I’m diggin it
26:51 - great vid as always but the Mongols definitely fought total war. They were like 1000x more brutal, and all consuming, compared to Alexander. Alexander basically spared most of the cities and spent significant time/resources building new cities. I didn’t see Ghengis or Hitler building anything for the sake of the conquered people
Hitler build camps for the conquered peoples.
And now it's crisis because the far green left 🏳️🌈 are concerned about the gasprice.
You are so wrong. Hitler did build facilities for conquered people. You can still go and see those "gas chambers" in Poland. 😅
maybe u should learn history a little bit. stuff like pax mongolica, or Yuan dinasty. do u know who founded Beijin?
The Austrian corporal built Autobahnen
@@yesyesyesyes1600 Total War does not mean destroying your own country on purpose lol. Also, some other guy claiming going to war with the Mongols was not total war. I mean, Baghdad's destruction by the Mongols is probably the most destructive thing ever done in war at scale - the "camps" were bad but they were basically horrible prisoner of war camps. Baghdad just got absolutely flattened
Learned more history from Whatifalthist than from any history teacher or book I’ve ever read! Dude is a literal fountain of knowledge. Keep it up 👍
Same. It’s an awesome channel. Some of the predictions aren’t always correct, but that can be expected.
It's not likely the most historical events happen naturally or accidentally
I’d be careful trusting this dude. He’s very biased and his understanding of historical events and analysis are mediocre at most. His sources are outdated, his citation and fact check/corrections are non-existent and I guess worst of all is he is click baiting his audience.
Where is this dude come up with this? It’s a torrent of information. Does his brain just not stop?
It’s funny how he’s able to talk for 40 minutes about this. I have a friend who’s a retired Navy guy and carpenter. About communism, he said “ they’ve tried that other places, and it doesn’t work.” Anybody with a brain knows this, yet somehow this dude can talk to it for like 30 minutes.
@@Jouwuhncan you tell us the name of your channel?
I've been a history nerd for several years now which is pretty awesome because It's given me a good view on the world and how the future could play out.
Also helps being a religion nerd too
Guess being a nerd for entertainment properties and chemical structures was the wrong move…. Fuck.
Children know nothing
Aristophanes is interesting because he called out all the things that destroyed Athens, and everyone laughed but nobody did anything to change it.
@@XanViciousdude, history and religion *are* entertaining to learn about! Use that part that’s an entertainment nerd and find a part of history that interests you and go from there. Don’t be afraid to start with historical fiction as an entry point.
This is by FAR the most interesting thing I've seen in ages! Keep up the great work my guy
So glad this channel came up on my feed. Great stuff my dude, keep it up!
As a fellow younger American I enjoy your perspective. One things for sure, it feels like things are going to get crazy. Our society is so polarized these days. Maybe the best thing would be decentralization and allowing different people to live different lives, like cities vs suburbs/rural.
but on what basis?
The American culture war seems to be in its final years. The theme right now isn’t escalation, it’s exhaustion.
If we can’t live together we can live separately through national divorce. With fifty states we could offer fifty different forms of government and people could vote with their feet to go to the place that most suited them. A loose confederation like Switzerland could form a security structure. The great unknown is if this would create a power vacuum which an ambitious nation like China could fill.
@@billyb4790 I'm just talking about a more anti federalist government. Imo, if Biden runs then anyone will beat him. In that case I think many people would be on board for a less powerful federal government. On the other hand it could be a mistake where as soon as the anti populist side takes power they go crazy. Idk what the solution is here but it's not working well right now.
Get? You saying it's not crazy now?
If you wanna play a game set in the 1600s, Europa Universalis IV takes place over 1444-1821. It does a good job representing how long sieges actually took (with a few exceptions), the economics of the time, colonization (except some unrealistic situations in areas dominated by unlivable conditions), the importance of diplomacy, and the absolute fustercluck that is the reformation and its associated wars.
Dude I love EU4, I have almost 3k hours, but it is TERRIBLE at simulating historical realities
@@jacobnormann6678 No offense but a single siege taking like three years while you're sitting there peeking at the "Please make peace with me you fucking idiot you're being invaded in three other wars right now" button seems entirely realistic to me given the time period
@@ApplesGhost the problem with EU4 is twofold- every war is treated like a total war by combatants, forcing way more commitment and way longer conflicts, but also much more decisive conflicts, than usually occurred in reality, while also limiting what can actually be achieved in wars. It creates this strange thing where every combatant treats the war as an existential threat, usually resulting in total occupation of the losing side, while then making the peace deal often less impactful than would have been historically imposed given the effort put forward. And the other problem is literally EVERYTHING about peacetime and the domestic situation, there is no aspect of it that is remotely like history. EU4 is fun, yes, but it is by no means a historically accurate game
@@jacobnormann6678 Valid objections. Hopefully when they make EU5 they put a little more effort into it. It IS getting a bit old these days.
That being said I wouldn't argue every war is like a total war, it's more like the AI is just incompetent because it's an old game. They've improved it over its lifespan, but I have a sneaking suspicion they're going to have to change to their newer engine they use for vicky 3 and ck3 before they're able to make certain necessary improvements.
Like, with regards to my disagreement, and the AI being bad at the game, you can enforce a white peace with an enemy's ally in a war by slapping their army around a couple times and then standing on top of their capitol, even if it's not actually occupied. It's not actually necessary to completely occupy them or anything. The same is true for major nations as well, to a lesser degree; totally occupying them is unnecessary in most situations, and in many situations, it's better to only occupy certain parts of their land and then pursue a smaller peace deal. It's really only when you're bad at the game when you turn every war into a total war situation.
If EU was like CK2 or 3 in terms of rpg id play
Spot on, this has been one of your best videos yet
Thanks for the encouragement.
15:02 This is already happening in west Africa (my region) The Wagner group, in cooperation with military thugs from Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso and now Niger, have instigated coups in all of these countries. The rest of us in the region, especially in my country of Nigeria, are very angsty over this because we know where it leads: more insecurity, especially from islamic extremists and more socioeconomic hardship for people.
Stay safe friend
The US ain't gonna save Africa.
I'm getting tired of the smoothbrain contrarians talking like the Niger junta is based, because "all I see is people in the streets celebrating and not much protesting."
Gee, fucktard, I wonder why their aren't people in the street telling a fresh new junta to go fuck off. Maybe we should ask Myanmar.
I wish you good luck
Wagner Group just flew over my house!
You know it’s a good CZcamsr when you’re excited for a 40 minute long video
Yeah if you’re into being introduced to alt-right ideas
He ain’t alt right man, he’s just stupid.
@@ugiswrong whatifalthis is less of a fascist than most of the radical left these days; whatifalthis would condemn and wish to stop violence while the modern left not only encourages violence but wants communism, a system of government that’s just as fascist as hitler’s germany
@@ugiswronglol you are the problem you have gone so far left that centrists seem like nazis to you
He should put less wall of texts in his videos tho.
I believe you are one of the most valuable content creators in CZcams, you adress the issues not from hate but from the extremes of the modern world. You know the patterns, know the issues but don't really blame anyone while pointing out the issues if everyone. A unbiased awnser that has truth.
One of your best yet!
As a fellow historian I'd have to, unhappily agree. The parallels with the 30 years war are very close. Likely the consequences gonna be similar. It sucks.
Not sure if you could call this guy a "historian" with a straight face. An unqualified CZcamsr that talks out of his backside about history would be more accurate.
@@martin2289 So, two things. First, What exactly does it require for one to be a "Historian" because that just means a student of history. It's sort of like "Scientist". Anyone can be a scientist or a historian with minimal barrier to entry. It's a descriptor of an action, not a title. Doctor, Engineer, Marine. These are titles you earn.
And second. What is "Qualified"? You don't need a fancy degree to be qualified as a historian, you just have to know history. You don't even have to be good at it to be a historian.
@@smugfrog8111 You can't call yourself a scientist if you don't do science. You do science by asking a question about a certain phenomenon (A social phenomenon of the past in the case of historians), formulate a hypothesis, and then test that hypothesis.
In natural sciences, those testings are in experimentation. In social sciences, those testings are made through surveys, collecting data through sources wether material sources (archeology) or written sources (like written account of events OR administrative archives).
Once the hypothesis is tested against the sources, the historian tries and publish his findings, submitting it to the review of the peers. Said review will determine if the proof and the method were satisfying to be engaged in the intellectual debate or if the author should revise his methods before engaging in it. It's like having a quality requirement to enter a debate to ensure no one will get on stage and just spew bullshit.
Whatifalthist is not a historian because they don't test their hypothesis through facts, he's an ideologue. Now, having a political opinion and expressing it is not a problem although I do disagree with most of what this individual has to say, but the real problem and lunacy of whatifalthist is that he presents his deeply felt opinions like if they were historical facts. He doesn't engage in a litterate ways with the historical interpretations he disagrees with, and doesn't back his claims. He doesn't want to go through any vetting process because any sane historian community are fully aware within 5 minutes of listening to him that he will only spew bullshit.
@@smugfrog8111well if pretty much every other reliable and unbiased creator in the CZcams history space have posted videos debunking much of WIAHs blatant misrepresentation of history, you’re not off to a good start
@@lukem21 Like who? I've never seen anything like that and I'm on CZcams a lot..
Are you sure when you say "reliable and unbiased"
You don't really mean "left wing shill""
If you don't that's fine, but that's usually what that means.
Europe will fall to "is lame" in our lifetime, unless the indigenous population is willing to fight for it's culture.
I've been thinking this since his videos about the coming famines in Middle East and Africa. Rather than just starve and die, they will move in mass, to the place where refugees go, Europe. And Europe will either be overrun, or they will defend themselves, and the politics will turn insular.
Turkey and the Maghrebi nations will play a pivotal role in this. If Europe can appease them to hold the line, it may work out.
@@shorewallit depends like Syria is recovering and they have enough arable land to feed themselfs infact they import less good than most middle eastern countries and Iraq sure their rivers are drying up but not at a pace where all of their arable lands will say dry up, the gulf is rich and will keep importing food no matter the cost or will use their few Arable lands with some modern technology to become say slightly more self reliant though Saudi has plenty of Arable lands in Hejaz in the mountains and some farm land between the mountains like in Narjan. In Jordan they will continue to accept foreign aid and few arable land near the river makes them slightly self reliable and as long as the goverment is there and country is stable food supply wouldn't be a problem. Israel country which I hate can pretty much support themselfs with ever lasting US support also plenty of arable land and pretty advanced technology the Palestinian territories can make food themselfs and be supported by Israel who would of course keep sending settlers and would keep the goverment in order to control the Palestinian population as its much easier to occupy them and piss them of even more. In Lebanon they have no dessert and are entirely mountainous with farmland that they can utilise upon pulling themselfs out of their crisis. Only real problems are in Egypt with 100m living in the only Arable strip of land with 100s of Miles all around them sand and with small pot of Arable land bring dry's up as Ethiopia build their dam and with Yemen with a high population, few arable lands more than Saudi but still few and is in war torn status with children currently starving to death. That is my take on the situation so these Famines are a possibility and are not all over the middle east only in some countries. Also refugees only went yo Europe because they allowed them or at least thought so and they didn't go to Saudi or try to seek refuge because the Saudi goverment will deport them and they know it so its not really what you think. I am not a evil invader that wants to replace the Germam people if anything I want Germany to restore their empire and make their empire more German ethnically and culturally not by genocide like the nazis but by assimilation and high birth rates among Germans and thats coming from a religious Palestinian-Syrian Arab middle-easterner. Ich mag deutsche: Sprachen, Kulture und volke. I know my German ain't the best but I am learning.
Nah. Not demographically for sure.
Europe needs to stand up and fight for it’s Culture
“Men grow tired of sleep, love, singing and dancing, sooner than war.” Homer
Outstanding as always.
With the complete lack of authority invested in me, a retired senior intelligence analyst, I confer onto you Mr. Rudyard an honorary intelligence analyst certification. It's worth absolutely nothing and cannot be used on any resume, but still tries to capture the level of excellence in your research and analysis. Thanks for sharing another great analysis video on critical aspects of current human history in the making 😎
Why is Mississippi a shithole? Voted Right for +40 years
I bet Brain Damaged Rudyard won't answer it like Fox News!
I wish Rudyard is sued and FORCED to pay 780 MILLION to Dominion Voting Systems!!!
When I was 16 I won a great Victory, I felt in that moment I would live to be 100…
Now I know I shall not see 30
Awesome movie! One of my Top 3 of all time!
@@wohendumwing3ee9what movie?
@@porkerpete7722 Kingdom of Heaven (2005) directed by Ridley Scott.
If you are alive in Jesus then you live eternally, so that kind of limited thinking is irrelevant
Love your channel! You have the pulse of the times
Awesome video, thank you :)
It's funny that the average person thinks that we magically ended up here or that historical events occur naturally.
The average person doesn't even know history
what gets me is the "average" person thinks mankind has evolved from their ancestors from a 1000 yrs ago...I'm not sure how they think with tech improvement that means human emotions have changed.
The average person is so utterly clueless, it's sad
The average person lacks a internal monologue and couldn't picture an image in their heads without drug use.
@@mastercharlesdiltardino8058is having an internal dialogue actually really, though? It's always a dangerous thing to believe that others are stupid and unenlightened because they don't know something we know or have something that we have.
Whatifalthist is becoming a reason to get out of bed every morning...even if a global catastrophe happens I hope we can still get some great content.
Love history, cant believe ur like 21 , gives me faith
Man your videos are always so interesting. And though I may not have the ability to argue for or against any of your points, the way you present them is fascinating. Thanks for your efforts!
I'm a practicing Catholic and I watch all your videos. They are very good. I would suggest reading anything by Aquinas, then I would suggest reading Rerum Novarum by Leo XVI and then Fides et Ratio. Just my thoughts. I think you would enjoy reading those.
What are they about?
You mean Leo XIII.
Religion
Just one of his patently untrue statements: Him accusing the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages saying: "you see them avoiding and actively blocking information" is malicious and FALSE.
Also, saying that a "human life is naturally equal" come from Christianity is BS. Christianity has never taught that ever.
Military guy here, gotta say your take on the Ukraine War is dead wrong. The main reasons it's regressed into trench warfare have more to do with poor command and control, lack of experience in coordinating large offensive operations, lack of mineclearing and breaching equipment, lack of air superiority, incompetent commanders, both sides having oppressive amounts of artillery that can quickly disrupt offensive formations, and the sheer massive size of the front line relative to the density of the opposing forces. Remember that the fields of Ukraine were fought over by armies numbering in the millions in WW2, and are now being fought over by armies a fraction of that size.
He views the war from a mainstream western lense. His analysis of the thirty years war is also off the mark when he said warfare didn’t change from the 1600s to Napoleon. I don’t like how he tries to compare that to Ukraine.
@@alanwu2213 yeah his discussion of military technology in that era left a lot to be desired and failed to discuss the major evolutions in field artillery and battlefield tactics that took place
You just described most countries. Most of them, even NATO members. The US is an exception, not the norm.
Yeah but this is how we enjoy rudyard being wrong, at least discussing the past. When he only discusses the present it is unlistenable
@@daisyeyeyeyJust lol to your comment.
Your videos absolutely blow my mind everytime I read it thank you for helping me open my eyes
The tank comparison is striking in my opinion, thanks for bringing it up!
The comparison with the 17th century works well, I would really like to compare the firearms of the 17th century with today's NLAWs or Cornet missiles. A modern tank is a lot like a 17th century knight or winged hussar, they are heavily armed, heavily armored and very expensive to maintain. They are very effective, but today a single infantryman with a shoulder mounted anti tank missile can disable a modern tank, much like back then, a musketeer could take out a knight despite all the armor, thus making a heavily armored warrior who could take out many opponents alone useless.
Cavalry didn't disappear in the 17th century, and I don't see tanks disappearing either, but just like cavalry has taken a more supportive role, looking for weak spots and attacking supply lines, we will probably see much less frontal tank assaults since they become very costly with modern anti tank weapons.
With Russia, I'd like to add that with the fall of the USSR, they had lost a lot of their tank manufacturing abilities, with places like Kharkiv, which had one of the biggest tank factories in the USSR, going to Ukraine, and now, 30 years later, Russia still hasn't regained that ability.
It feels like we're in an endless Blue Ball scenario. We're _always_ on the brink of a 2ACW. We're _always_ on the brink of WW3, we're _always_ on the brink of a total economic collapse, but nothing ever seems to happen. Things just get worse and worse but they don't seem to go into total disaster. I supposed I should be celebrating that, because it means I won't have to actually partake in the Siege of Los Angelas in 2026 like I joke I'll do, but I can't stop thinking of the phrase "Thing's gotta get worse before they get better".
If we're not on the brink of war or famine, could we be on the brink of a Great Awakening or perhaps a Democratic Revolution, where the rumored various Deep States we think control our countries all get dismantled, and aspects such as full transparency and guaranteed human rights are not only more expected, but actually the norm in the West? Could we be on the brink of an era of political de-radicalization and de-militarization, where we won't have to worry on a daily basis about which government agency is spying on us at any given moment?
I would love to think that the second thing is what's true, that real peace and actual stability is right around the corner, but I'll admit it's hard not to be a total Doomer these days and get into the mindset that the first thing is what'll happen.
Edit: By "always" I mean "in recent history", such as the past 10 years when things have really gotten worse
We haven't always been here. The 2010s felt different. Everything after covid has felt dark though.
@@laststand6420 Well, by "always" I do actually mean the 2010's, I'm gonna edit my comment to make it more clearer
@@laststand6420 The 2010s is when the craziness began.
BLM was born in the 2010s, wokeness as we know it today was born in the 2010s, the alt-right was born in the 2010s.
I get what your feeling.
I feel like collapse is inevitable, and this constant waiting and going through the motions is driving me crazy.
At this point I just want to rip the bandaid off and just start the war already, because this slow March toward disaster is agonizing.
@@Kaiserboo18712010s happened because the internet went mainstream as said in this video. People realized the church isn't practicing what it's preaching.
I love the 1632 series. It's a Pity mr. Flint died last year. Though apparently his co-authors are working with his family and publisher to continue his series.
If you like the 1632 series try an island in the sea of time.
@@icomxwing42 read that one too. Good Series.
@@danielbickford3458do you know of any others in the same vein?
@@icomxwing42 Flint at all also wrote time spike in which a prison and a bunch of others were sent back to the time of the dinosaurs. There is one paper book in the series, and while the Grantville Gazette was up, there were dozens of short stories and serials in that world. They also wrote the Alexander inheritance Series in which a cruise ship gets sent back just after Alexander the Great's death. There are so far two books in that series. There's another series that I am a very Glee familiar and I think I read a book or two of called The Destroyer men. Can't recall the author, but it's about a bunch of world war I ( i think?)Naval personnel with their ships being teleported into a world in which dinosaurs never went extinct. Though to be completely honest the last alternate history book was one of the Black Chamber books by s.m. Stirling ( pod was Roosevelt getting an extra term), and that was earlier this year. Most of the time I get my alternate history fix on Alternate history dot com. Generally speaking, amongst the alternate-history community, the term for a chunk of real estate teleporting from one time to another is called an isot. The term actually comes from the book you suggested: Island in the Sea of Time. Hope this helps
Yeah, his death hit me as hard as Darwyn Cooke’s did. Glad the story is going to continue, cause the series is so damn good.*
*Excluding those terrible books co-written with Virginia DeMarce, those were like reading about paint drying.
That's a cliff hanger now...
Love the content and share regularly..
a generation that has an anxiety atretack during a phone call is the one with the most power. Just redirect that anxiety and emotions towards an enemy, and there will be nothing left.
Stop complaining
but would that work it that generation is too nihilistic to care?
Drafting Gen Z is so comical. That being said can't wait to see it happen.
If Gen Z get drafted to fight in some stupid war, they'll probably just decide to fight here. And a lot of disaffected people will join them. So that is the hardline for the boogaloo to kick off.
Society literally relies on the youngest millennials ages 26 to 35 right now lol
I would never die for my country. Id rather take the 5 years in prison. No Russian or Chinese person has beef with me or I with them. I’m not killing a young man or dying because some old satanists get money from it.
I suspect the US would have to draft Gen-X (48 to 58) for any major war. No way are Millennials or Zoomers able to fight in a war (drug dependency, overweight, un-reliable, largely incompetent: Sorry for the few Millennials or Zoomers that don't fit, but I am sure you realize that the majority of your generation this is true).
@@scottanno8861"Society literally relies on the youngest millennials ages 26 to 35 right now lol"
No, Its Gen-X. Gen-X & the remaining younger boomers still working. When the last time you seen a younger plumber, electrician, lineman? Or when the last time you didn't see a millennial checking their smartphone\social media ever 10 to 30 minutes?
I can’t help but wonder if all the advancements in technology are causing a rapid compression in these cycles and timeline patterns of nations.
I do think the things are speeding up. Communication is faster, travel is faster, the world is smaller than it once was. Trends happen much faster now.
That's probably part of it, but i think the main reason the us is falling apart is because we became too powerful too quickly and as such our population became complacent.
The idea of cycles is outdated in academic circles
@@symptom3896 people will call the zodiac pseudoscientific nonsense, but some guys show them a graph and they're all on board.
@@tatsuya2112 and we became top dog as a result of Europe shooting itself in the foot (for the hundredth time).
As an historian, I love Eric Flint's 1632 series of books! They are great reads!
Eric is Agnostic and the 1632 Earth becomes much more Left, Liberal, Progressive and Atheistic than ours
Same with the Alexander Inheritance series but much faster!
@@christiandauz3742 Indeed, sometimes the series has too much ideological posturing, but apart from that I did like it. And at least he was decent enough to present Galileo's case in a historically accurate way (instead of the popular but wrong "the Church wanted to suppress science to keep people stupid")
@@praevasc4299
Both the 1632 Earth and 321 BCE Earth are becoming much more Progressive and Irreligious than ours by a huge margin
Earlier Industrial Revolution, Much Better Healthcare and focus on Scientific Knowledge destroy Conservatism
This was a very spot on analysis, i was very sceptic and thought about counter arguments for most of your points, only for you to present another explanation that fit with my thoughts
Best political history channel on yt without a doubt, I’ve been across all sides of the spectrum and this one is the most unbiased. There are things I agree and disagree with but it is without a doubt the best
If you think this channel is the most unbiased over all of CZcams then maybe you should broaden your horizons bud.
@@peterconnors5259 at the very least he's honest about them
No channel is unbiased, and that most certainly applies to this channel
@@peterconnors5259Maybe you should narrow your horizons, Spud 🥔
@@darksu6947 I used to work in the potato farming business so I find this funny
The main problem with using the Ukraine war is that neither side is utilizing air power. Ukraine doesn't use it because they don't have much of an air force while Russia wants to save them in case of a war against NATO. The US has overwhelming air power because of what is currently happening in Ukraine. I also think that you will see the exact opposite of how warfare was conducted during the Early Roman Empire era where the specialist roles (skirmishers, light cavalry then, tankers, pilots today) are filled by a nation's people while the standard infantry will be filled out with mercenaries.
Yeah there is no way the US would fight Russia how Ukraine is. The US would US Air, land, armor, and infantry all in tandem.
@@porkerpete7722also his example of a US offensive prowess with the Iraq War is absurd. The vast majority of the Iraqi army deserted or surrendered within the first few weeks of invasion in 2003. They didn’t really put up much of a fight. If Saddam’s regime was more popular, there would have been far more resistance to bog down US ground and air forces. On top of that the US “body count” of Iraqi losses in the invasion included a lot of civilians.
@porkerpete7722 well the us would try too anyway, the us has never faced an enemy with as much air defence as Russia (or the ussr), from the public statements made by us military officials they are not confident their airforce would hold up in the air defense conditons of ukriane.
@@porkerpete7722 " The US would US Air, land, armor, and infantry all in tandem." - And the US would lose a lot of men and equipment with little to show. The reality of modern warfare is that whenever a mass of troops or armor appear near a front, it also appears on surveillance equipment, and then comes the rockets, drones and artillery. So whoever has the most rockets, drones, artillery, and surveillance in the area of battle, and the best method of integrating them all together, wins, which Ukraine is finding out the hard way.
@@Letsplay222 Iraq was one of the most fortified countries with the fourth largest army in the world prior to desert storm.
Any site that vaguely looked like it could host a radar, air-strip or even a suspiciously wide manhole cover had been turned into slag by two weeks of constant air supremacy, without a single step being taken into their territory and so despite Iraq owning a substantial amount of ex-Soviet anti-air systems.
Those same systems would have to face far more recent jets and bombers, along a far higher disparity in numbers than what the USSR would have enjoyed compared to today's Russia, which only worsened with the fighting in Ukraine.
MAD mean it'll never happen, that's the major reason why the US will send equipment there.
A meatgrinder goes both way and is advantageous when you spend your steel along someone else's blood.
The US doesn't really care about Russia anymore, it wants to focus on China, and the war is a golden opportunity to wake-up the slacking European NATO members.
Invigorating ! Thanks from old New Orleans 😎
Yeah I'm Gen Z. Really cannot imagine getting drafted and fighting for America. I get anxiety just seeing a police vehicle behind me. And get anxious easily. Also just think about the absolute worst life has to offer. Fear rules everything in my life. Am I gonna be able to date? Am I gonna be able to buy a house? Will something bad happen to my parents? Will I wreck my car? Is this the best use of my time? Is this person about to talk to me? Every little thing in life has Fear register in my mind. Really though, if yall talked to me in real life, none of you would know because I present myself as a functional human being unless it's the worst stuff. Like cops. Scared af of them. My legs go weak and my heart goes a million miles just seeing a cop.
Same
Be a hacker and steal money from Fox News and the Catholic Church
Just remember to give some of that money to Ukraine and the poor
Anxiety and fear are super important, they were as you probably already know survival instinct. Working on bringing down the intensity of those feelings is useful. We are still organic beings, subject to the dangers if a physical and sometimes volatile world as shown in the video.
Well no one goes and slaps a police officer , you are normal man.
Just try to keep this intensity down as many times your facial expressions may cause them to be suspicious of you.
@hellomoto2084 One time I was minding my own business in Myrtle Beach SC and a cop comes up to me on the beach in his truck. Calls me out in front of our whole group amd asked me "What's that about F**k all cops?" I did not utter a single word to him or in his direction. But he truely thought that. He just want to abuse his power. He didn't believe me at all. Nobody said a single thing to the like either. I see cops breaking laws and behaving dangerously a lot. I see them driving 50k cars that their department has no business owning. They are just corrupt to the core. You have no power when they decide to harass and abuse you. I use to support them but I've seen way to many terrible ones to ever want them near me unless I'm already in danger from something else. The other issue will take their attention away from me in that type of event.
Something we have to take into account (as per waging war to drain your opponent of resources), is that it might purely be prolonged for financial gain by a few powerful. The creation of weaponry, but also the creation of a post-war rebuilding economy might drive the goal of protracting smaller wars. Also, some radical fringe group might get their hands on nukes and use them on population centres, trying to false flag a large nuclear response between their enemies. We might have MAD, but there's also the possibility that it fails and one side completely wipes out the other and survives.
The problem is you need the vast financing arms of modern globalism to have the cash to waste. Fiat currency is a mistake no people will dare make again for centuries, witness the use of paper money in Song China and 15th century Vietnam. Not only are fiat currencies immoral in that can only uncouple the ROR of capital over labor, but also work as an undeclared tax on savings via inflation.
This century we're going back to sensible things, a whole suite of security over opportunity. Wars can't be extended for the benefit of the elites because that's a decedent luxury only a nation with more money than sense can manage. Same with racial and ethnic pluralism and women in the workforce and of course consumerism. All of these staples of modern life are ruinous.
@@charlottewolery558What do you mean ‘same with racial and ethnic pluralism’? How the hell is that part of the problem?
@@EpicMRPancake ever heard of the British Raj? That's why. Humans are tribal, not faction, blood. They will always compete for resources with the losers always at the mercy of their conquerors. As the Jews found out, that mercy is subject to revocation at any time. This is why Israel exists. This is why nationalism exist. You and your people are never safe unless they and they alone control all the levers of state power.
In this era we are deluded with cosmopolitan aspirations and choking on money to grease the wheels. Also politicians love diversity as everyone is too busy blaming the other while the elite picks everyone's pocket.
The Hindus and the Muslims in the Raj, blacks and whites in America, Germans and minorities in Germany.
Only complete ethnic solidarity can prevent this divide and rule strategy, and even then it's not a certain thing.
Immigration is always to delute the bargaining power of the native workers. Multi racial immigration prevents assimilation because that's all about passing privilege. You want a colorblind society? Gouge out everyone's eyes.
Humans are animals and it in our nature, and best interest, to fight and destroy neighboring tribes for land and resources and sex slaves. That is what man does, and will do until the sun burns out.
@@EpicMRPancake blud is gonna start nooticing
I guess that by the year 2400s, people in those time will view the years of 2000s to 2040s as the "barbaric years".
You may be correct
@@chasehedges6775 Now I'm more nervous of living through a 30 years of war.
Ain't no 2400 😂. No way we make it that long.
@@porkerpete7722 Maybe the people living on Mars or on other planets.
@@cossacktwofive4974mars was already destroyed by a nuke too much radiation why they left and came here.
Funnly enough, there is an anime called Irregular in Magic High School, where World War 3 was a literal 30 years war while big armies were steadily supplanted by overpowered magic users who became an aristocratic ruling class
Great content. Thanks.
Very thought-provoking video! Really happy you're uploading so frequently. I'd watch 2 videos a day from you.
I am propablly on the stronger side of gen z do to having fought to the blood every month for some of my teenage years, and when I considered joining the army my answer was no. I will not give my body and life to be done with as the government pleases when it grants citizenship to foreigners and literally legalized bribery earlyer this year. And yes I do get anxiety telling a girl I like her, it took me 3 months to realize I liked her and then 3 more to finally be able to say it, tho now that I know she feels the same way over 6 months more I have finally become able to say I love you with it actually making me happy.
Didn't have to give your life story lol, but I'm proud of you bro.
@@sjcl2563 Thats not even close to my full life story.
Good luck with the girl man. :)
Some Internet tough guy. You are almost too scared to talk to a girl and to much of a coward to enlist.
What’s wrong with people moving to the U.S. and getting citizenship?
Quality video man!
Hopefully Sabaton makes a new album for this….
IOANNES BIDENUS REX!
@yanmew Ew no 🤮, we don't need any praising the corrupt tyrant.
@@yanmew Me as a regular guy being drafted into the Marines: "Has man gone insane, and who will remain and who will find a way to live through 3 decades of war."
regnum trumpum 😂😂😂😂
@@mohamedjear8917 Donaldus Rex
I like the comparison that you made between the 17th century and the Late Bronze Age. That is another time period that I see as being likely greatly analogous to ours because of the great degree of globalization, reliance on complex systems especially of international trade, and warfare as you pointed out with the charioteers back then and the advanced tanks and drones today. I would love to see you make a video about the Late Bronze Age Collapse and how that could parallel the crisis of the 21st century, especially seeing as how it’s quite likely that one of the proximate causes for the Collapse was Mediterranean overreliance on food imports from modern Ukraine and the expulsion of the farmers from that area (the Tjekker/Thracians?) by invading nomads, likely the Scythians.
The people of the Bronze Age wished they had Paper, Printing Press, Gunpowder, Muskets, Cannons, Iron tools and other inventions of the 17th century
The Bronze Age Collapse occured because of massive crop failure. The knowledge and tools from the 17th century would have prevented that!!!
@@christiandauz3742 I have heard that the bronze age system broke down in great part due to discovery of iron processing that made global trade obsolete. For Bronze you will need metals like copper, tin, perhaps arsenic, maybe lead, phosphorus, cadmium. And those are often not found in one lace. Iron is single metal and it's simplest alloys that are of any use are with bit of carbon that is omnipresent.
@@MrToradragon
Overgrowing of food in the same areas without replenishing the soil cause harvests to decrease severely
This lead to starvation, disease, forced massive migrations and social destabilization
Iron did not cause Ancient Medditerraneans to LOSE THEIR LANGUAGE OR THE ABILITY TO READ!!!
The Assyrians that used Iron Weapons appeared AFTER the Old Assyrian Empire collapsed alongside the Bronze Age!
Super interesting. Thanks
Great work.
You've been pumping out some great stuff man
Forget history and you are doomed to repeat it. No history = no identity = fake made up identity.
Great video. Love and blessings!
man crazy video. Thanks for making these videos. Love from Iran ❤.
Listened to this while working out. God, I love a productive morning. Thanks.
As for last point: Winged Hussars of Poland may be a good example of how such elite units would work in a republican system.
Commonwealth was basically USA of 16th and 17th century.
Winged Hussars were the massively offensive absurdly heavily armored elite forces of PLC. The prestige of being apart of it was worth enough for the nobles serving in those regiments to fund all their equipment themself to ensure the highest quality and to also display their riches via fashion.
At the same time, legally they were equal to even the gołota, the nobles so poor they hold no possesions other than what they carry and often that didn't go beyond their sabre. What they gained instead was special treatment by goverment and society outside the legal means. They also were heavily idealistic both for catholicism and republicanism even for the time. The Winged Hussars could only exist cause Winged Hussars founded themself to further their ideology, be it christian defense against Islam ornationalistic defense against Russia.
At the same time those times were known as near-anarchy in Commonwealth. And it's not about the few big civil wars you mentioned but actually countless small civil wars that were so common they were basically legalized (even against the King) and were engrained into Polish culture forever. To this day a lot of us look back at civil wars over singular villages between nobles during the times of Golden Liberty with romantic nostalgia.
The elite forces were elite cause the people in them willed them to be. And the same wills then made centralized rule of law impossible.
Huh... didn't know Poland went through it's version of the Sengoku Jidai. If Poles had landed in Japan instead of the Portuguese I'd imagine things would get quite interesting.
@@leetman102 the moment us Poles and Japanese met we became instant friends.
French claim to be OG EU weebs, but they only started liking Japs after they made anime, we on the other hand cooperated with them since basically Poland was reborn after WW1.
Heck, the brother to Józef Piłsudzki, Bronisław literally did the meme and married an Ainu girl, moved to Japan,and then created structures for Polish-Japanese cultural exchange, which then later saved children from Holocaust by transporting them to Japan.
We also have long and succesful diplomatic and intelligence cooperation with Japan since 1930s (with a break for communist occupation, but c'mon).
Well, as you can guess there's only one issue we have with our relation: Japanese, you were cool with us, why the hell you had to went full on inhuman on Koreans and others in your region? We kinda still don't understand it, but they learned their lesson, so we cool.
@@leetman102Poles failed also due to not being able to subdue its nobility during the 1600s, where other monarchies began to seize more and more power for themselves and able to wage war.
PLC was an elective monarchy that faced constant diplomatic intervention from outside forces that interfered with them able to subdue its nobility, eventually leading to its partition by its neighbors.
T-34 and Shermans are the main tanks while the Abrams and T-14s are the elites.
@@xboxseriesxoverlord
Anyone can operate a tank. Not everyone can be a Winged Hussar
I think a game about the 30 Years War would be interesting. Sometimes when playing FPS's I set it up to be like a siege.
There has to be a mout and blade mod for that
I play a lot of StarCraft 2, and I watch a lot of pro games. There's 2 sides of a match - the micro game (handling individual units and winning battles), and there's the macro game (managing resources, starving your opponent out, and destroying your opponent's economy).
It's actually really surprising how some games can be won in 10 minutes because a player pulled some brilliant attack. Those are always fun to watch, and this is what's stereotypically what people enjoy in a video game.
It's also really surprising how some matches can last over an hour because each player has staked out half of the map, and their armies are just dancing around each other without really engaging. They spend most of their time poking at each other's bases and sending small attacks to wreck key parts of their economy. The goal isn't really to win a battle, but to wear the enemy out.
(Oddly enough, I enjoy these long macro games more.)
It's interesting how a simple video game can remind me of the patterns taken in actual wars
@hebercluff1665 right? I loved Command and Conquer, until I rage quit because I'm playing modern day Virtual Alexander the Great.
Great channel 👍
Thank you it helps a lot
Where’s Hari Seldon when you really need him? And your right. The book 1632 by Eric Flynt is a really good read. The excitement of reading about some Virginia hillbillies taking on mercenaries who had flint lock rifles and pistols, while the Virginians had modern weapons, was a good read. I’ve read the complete series and have to admit that the series, along with Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy, are my favorite reads.
It’s funny how it’s now like a double period piece.
Yep, great book. They were actually West Virginians however, not Virginians.
Hair Seldon’s name in these times is Peter Turchin and his cliodynamics
That ended abruptly
You had me entranced there
Good video!
Well done. Thx
Excellent video
Bro, I'm loving all the uploads lately. Keep up the good work! 👍
Most of your videos are things I generally already know or agree with but are explored deeper. I never made this connection or thought of this and my mind was blown. Epic video.
Just found your channel and your videos are extremely informative and enjoyable. Do you have a recommended reading list also on the topics you cover?
This was fantastic and spot on. I've just recently started looking at the period of the late 1500s to mid 1600s and I think your analysis nails it. Very striking similarities.
This is the first video I've seen on this channel and this truly opened my eyes. I feel like until now I understand what's happening in the world much better from a new perspective. Well done, this deserver way more views.
This dudes straight up delusional don’t listen to him
Wait until you see his other stuff. He has lots of takes that really makes you think
@@canchero724they do make my head hurt
history is very illuminating, not only the past but the future because everything comes in cycles
The Mormon Battalion will restore Deseret in the Rockies!
The Warwolf by Herman Löns gives a perfect description of what life was a like as a common peasant in the 30 years war. It also makes clear what common folk will have to do should they wish to survive.
Those peasants wished high-speed trains and Uber exist
Earned a sub mate. Very interesting.
Never would have thought of that comparison, but it actually makes a ton of sense, and you're absolutely right that the people wbo mock the idea of the wars of religion have no self awareness about our modern moment. Unfortunately, we don't have a whole dang hemisphere to settle and explore to escape the madness and to rekindle civilizational vigor like we did back then...that is, unless space travel is gonna be a viable next frontier in the not too distant future, (I wouldn't be putting my chips on that, personally).
The one thing I would specifically disagree with you about is the claim that the modern left is inherently an Abrahamic Judeo-Christian offshoot. I can kinda see where you're coming from, but as other academically minded figures have very rightly pointed out, the modern left is a gnostic cult as I think you at least indirectly addressed in your secret history of the 20th century video, if memory is correct. I forget if you outright described fascism and communism as essentially gnostic, but what you described is exactly that. People like James Lindsay and others have done excellent breakdowns of the left's gnostic nature on their channels that are well worth checking out, and it's worth pointing out that a lot of modern leftist thought has been formed explicitly in opposition to Christian thought. In some sense, the modern culthre war is also basically comparable to the 2nd and 3rd century doctrinal debates between the Christians and gnostic cults that led to the creation of the core Christian creeds and the formal "Christianization" of the Roman empire. This time, however, the divide is more broadly between the subversive gnostic leftist ideologies and the people (the right?) who are effectively trying to do apologetics for the fundamentally Christian values and ideas that form the foundation of western civilization regardless of whether or not they themselves are Christian in faith and practice. Fingers crossed that the heretics don't win this time....
Wow, man I just discovered your channel and what a pleasure to hear quite a few elements of what i've been thinking so clearly and concisely expressed. My background is in Political Science and International Relations. So i'm getting a lot of what I learned in University from your video. I think i'm going to binge your channel. A big difference between the modern man an anyone that lived before the 1850s however, is the industrial revolution (the average amount of raw energy available per person and leveraged by machines).
Whatifalthist is Faux News for Nerds
Very good point.
As a wise man said; history may not repeat, but it does rime
If you want to fix Gen Z and make them more willing to fight, take away all of their Social platforms. I'm glad I came across this, I have been saying a lot of the same stuff as this for years and you gave me a couple of new things to think about as well.
You a Nazi now ....great
That intro is next gen
8:25 I've been feeling this for quite some time. Looking at venues myself its insane how much they ask for, again even for basic ones. I think this uncertainty ties to low birth rates in a lot of first world countries. People that grew up with simpler financial situations view the worsening economy as a major risk for starting a family.
>>Looking at venues myself
@alexmuenster2102 the time stamp I quoted has him talking about the cost of wedding venues
Should have quoted 8:18. He doesn't say a wedding venue directly but rather that getting married itself is expensive. A very large cost of weddings is often the venue.
Something that rhymes with the 30 Years War, a detailed map of the Holy Roman Empire looks suspiciously like a modern map of US County lines. Highly complex systems in collapse in a debtor society, in demographic collapse, during a time of climate extremes, triggering a web of complex violence that raged mercenary armies through the localities stripping everything and eventually everybody especially the civilians that left helpless are literally consumed by predators, human and otherwise. A dark time, we better hope this doesn’t play out.
They're using weather Warfare lookup haarp.. the elite don't want their peasants to revolt before they get to the AI singularity
If a 30 years war does happen, then we really are going through hell.
you do know that most other countries have second-level internal administrative subdivisions that are equivalent to counties in size, right? trying to compare the us to the holy roman empire solely based off the size of its more locally-oriented second-level subdivisions is such a broad and generalizing take, its essentially meaningless. you could compare china, russia, france, etc. to the hre too in that regard
It already is playing out, all over the World. Africa, Middle East, Parts of Asia. USA is like France, Sweden, or GB from back then, in that we won't be the main front, but we will be involved, and the stress may lead to that long awaited Civil War.
The biggest curveball to your argument is that the us has by far the most heavily armed populace in the world, as such "roving bands of mercenaries" would be fighting for every inch of territory they tried to pillage, except maybe in highly liberal areas that make gun ownership nearly impossible like chicago and even then that's only counting "legal" ownership.
Very good video
You're a better history teacher than 95% of the history teachers in American schools. Awesome video man!
*100%
Of course, all history teachers teach is slavery, hitler, and ESPECIALLY women's suffrage.
Imagine this guy as a teacher... Best school
No
So, in other words, the total war mentality of WWII is not feasible in our modern, declining, society? Maybe there's some small comfort in that.
It doesnt make sense anymore; one dude with an RC rocket/torpedo can make your million-billion dollar plane/tank/ship into scrap.
Countermeasures and doctrine changes might help with that problem.
@@UgandanAirForce perhaps, but the tide is strong. Additional problem is that the citizens have no taste for it. Would you fight a war knowing the only winners are the neoliberal omni party that already controls (your) government or the megacorps contracted for production?
@@wobbles7915 except the Ukr\Russia conflict resembles WW1 (Trench warfare). Ukraine has been sending waves of men, and the russians have been bomarding Ukrainian troops with Artillery. no different than WW1.
@@guytech7310 thats exactly the result of what weve described. Armor is very expensive and becomes a liability when everyone on the field could be packing a lightweight disposable AT launcher. I wouldn't stand for a US draft for one second and I don't think most my age would. We've spent most of our life getting dicked on by government policy (which is puppeted by financial and corporate interests) just like Althist describes. Comment section is full of psyops because that's all they're good for. I have no clue which side is winning but both seem desperate and like the next punch could be the knockout.
great video
This video makes me aware of how little I know about the 30 Years War and the 17th century in general. Thank you for another interesting episode.
God be with you out there everybody. ✝️ :)
I've been saying some of this for years. People started saying Christianity caused all these wars, and I pointed out that religion was just a jersey color. At the time, I was in Afghanistan, and I said the only reason we're here, and not in Iran or Saudi Arabia, is because those countries have too much money to destroy their own shit, so we're here fighting their proxy wars. That was the whole reason we fought in the Middle East, those two countries wanted to control the next caliphate.
I don't understand what you mean by that? You went to Iraq and Afghanistan; it had nothing to do with Iran at all; Taliban and Saddam were both enemies of Iran, and Iran's influence in these countries at the time was near zero. Iran and Iraq had 8-year war from 1980-1988, and the Sunni lead government of Iraq hated Iran and kept Iranian influence in Iraq in check; you went there to secure your own oil flow and hegemony when Saddam decided to take Kuwait and later had plans to take over Saudi Arabia.
Then we have Afghanistan, which was controlled again by a Sunni Taliban who burnt and killed Iranian ambassadors and almost started a war between the two nations.
It again had nothing to do with Iran, and this time it had 0 to do with Saudi Arabia; you went there again in the name of hunting down Osama bin Laden and securing USA hegemony, nothing else.
Now we have the Taliban back in Afghanistan; guess which two nations are almost on the brink of war again, Iran and the Taliban's Afghanistan, and Caliphate, really? Iranian do not care for a caliphate; they are Shia, and their goal is obvious it is the destruction of American hegemony in the region and the destruction of Israel as a nation.
But then again, I might have misunderstood what you meant.
I am Middle easterner, and you are slightly mistaken yes its a proxy between Saudi and Iran, but neither can or wants to establish a caliphate. The Saudis Islamically can they control the two holy sites excluding Jerusalem the third one but mecca and Medina are more important yet they didn't because the royal family us only concerned about their wealth and staying in power in fact as I would recall there was a international Islamic call for a caliph and the Saudis declined that was in the early 1900s after the collapse of the Ottoman caliphate also Iran is as nationalist as they are religious plus they are Shia only 10-15% of the Muslim population is Shia the rest are sunni so its really just a power struggle between them our caliphate will only inshallah come when the Saudis and Iranians are out of power then we would unite the Muslims and became a powerhouse. And yes I want a caliphate our only time of prosperity was under the caliphate when we are divided and ruled by petty goverments whether pathetic pan Arabic socialist ones (Ba'athists) or religious goverments pretending to care about Islam then proceeding to bomb or start/contribute to a civil war in Said Muslim nation like what the Saudis and Iranians are doing eith Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Libya but they are not as involved in libya with petty western borders we are ultimately going to have civil wars and not be able to educate ourselves and progress in terms of say technology or military not ideologically our belief is the same it doesent change. Anyways I don't hate you or like you feeling is neutral.
@@hishamalaker491 finally someone who are not patriots and nationalists over their own country, I always traumatized by the Malaysian Indonesian fighting over soccer game and some die from it which is scary, they also fighting over gaming industry which is ridiculous, also over their culture the Indonesian say the Malaysian as a culture stealer when in reality they live there obviously you're going to have the same culture.
Caliphate? What caliphate? Shia don't even have the concept of a caliphate, and Saudi doesn't want to create one as far as I know. Besides, even if they did want to create one, it would have no actual effect, since the rest of the Sunni Muslims likely wouldn't accept them. The idea of "Caliphate" as a unified Muslim state or hegemony hasn't been around for close to a thousand years. Yes, the Ottomans said they were a caliphate, but that was just a title and functionally meant nothing.
@@gdouble4710 No not, deus vult more like Allahu Akbar also I am not seeking war with christians in-fact I am very okay with them as long as they wish seek peace and not attack or hurt me also I am talking about entire countries not some people who hate me. Also I am seeking war with the Muslims who are causing corruption within Muslim land. A enemy from the inside is a poison while a enemy from the outside is a knife. A knife would cause me a injury or kill me but its avoidable and would cause me less damage than the poison, that would cause me long term affect. Compare Germany post ww2 and Syria post independence. Germany was attacked with a knife in ww2 ( knife being Us, Uk and USSR representing exterior enemies) which made them injured but eventually they recovered from it and now they are stronger than ever while Syria post independence was poisoned (interior enemies like Assad family and the ba'ath party) stealing from the people, killing them, torturing them. Destroying the Syrian spirity and instituions now this damage is like a poison as the damage is more long term than a knife and its from the inside like a parasite. Trust me I couldnt care less about the christians as long as they dont interfere with our countries which they arent but the liberals (western goverments especially America) sure are. These are your real enemies look at how many of you fellow christians became atheists because of them remember what I said a enemy from the outside is a knife which is avoidable and cause injury that you can recover from and a enemy from the inside is a poison destroying everything from within and it causes long term effects and would destroy your ability to recover. We both believe in the god of Abraham we should be at peace.