Will 2024 be the Hottest Year Ever Recorded?
Vložit
- čas přidán 31. 05. 2024
- 2023 shattered global temperature records, as climate change coupled with El Niño raised temperatures to sweltering levels. This new marker of global warming drove devastating extreme weather disasters across the planet, from heatwaves to floods to wildfires to droughts. But now climate scientists are predicting 2024 could be even hotter, potentially even 1.5°C of warming for the first time. So what's driving these temperatures, how can we already know what this year holds, and what can we do to combat climate change?
Support ClimateAdam on patreon: / climateadam
#climatechange #2024 #2023
twitter: / climateadam
instagram: / climate_adam
==MORE INFO==
2023’s record heat and its consequences
www.washingtonpost.com/climat...
Relative to paleoclimate
www.washingtonpost.com/weathe...
Met Office’s 2024 projection
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us...
More prediction
www.aa.com.tr/en/environment/...
Misleading headline about 1.5 www.newscientist.com/article/...
Emissions peak?
• Have we reached peak g...
==CREDITS==
Gaza footage from Kanal13
Future temp projections from Nasa Goddard
Neanderthal photo from Neil Howard
Historical warming from NASA Climate Change
Ice core clip from The Conversation
Power plant demolition from News 360 Tv
Fridays for future from Ostviertel
Wildfire footage from Cal OES
Heatwave visuals WMO & Pesticide Educational Resources Collaborative (PERC)
Greek floods by Weather events - Věda a technologie
huge thank you to all CliMates - subscribers and patrons alike! if you'd like to help me keep making videos, then join fantastic patrons like Perry over here: www.patreon.com/ClimateAdam
p.s. editing this video under the influence of covid is not how I wanted this year to start, but onwards and upwards from here!
I mean the sea surface temps are already crazy right ? Be honest man 😅
If you could explain the how Energy Imbalance is measured during your video on warming acceleration that would help.
PLEASE talk about the Earth Energy Imbalance and the heat absorption rate of the northern hemisphere in your global warming acceleration video! As well as albedo loss in both the poles and the clouds which are darker and fewer and create far less albedo.
@@TimlagorI will be gutted if he doesn't mention it
I love your channel! WOuld you please do a video on the difference between climate and weather. Many people (especially here in the U.S.) don't have a clue.
We’re so fucked. Trying to live my life without worrying about what impacts this will have on me and my loved ones-hoping for the best and hopefully preparing for the worst
Why? Every global warming prediction has failed, for decades. You're just part of a cult.
It’s hotter today than yesterday, but not as warm as tomorrow.
The simplest things/Situations... fucks their heads up. Make people panic and stress out. Step back listen and watch🤐 blows my mind
such global hotter outlier is at least something of a scientific concern don't you think ?
I hope not
I miss the times when I could go outside in the summer and not sweat away all the water I drank In 10 minutes
I also miss the summers where wasps and spotted lanternflies didn't swarm my town but that's not gonna change
Of course it will be worse - there's no stopping this train. We had a chance and didnt use it.
The (scientists) community of Creative Society has emitted an tragic alarm on November 2022, but at the same time an intent ....
Choo choo choo choo choo
😢
@@awesomeaishvari5861 environment snow and ice lover
I know a friend from Glasgow who says that it snows every single winter there.
But for the first time ever, its January 12th and the city sitll has no snow.
Also, I climbed a mountain recently in the winter and it usally is covered in snow every single year, but this time there was nothing. I am really worried about this world.
across the world we're seeing our weather getting weirder and weirder. the good news is we have the power to change that: most of these changes stop as soon as we stop emitting. here's hoping that happens sooner rather than later.
@@ClimateAdam 100% Agreed
@@ClimateAdam I always read that stopping emissions will not stop these changes. They will only stop to get worse and more frequent, but the 1.5 °C global warming with all its effects will stay with us for a long time. CO2 will not suddenly disappear, it will stay in the atmosphere for decades, at best.
@@paulusbrent9987 Stopping emissions would stop the warming because the reinforcing feedback loops get canceled out by a drop in CO2 as more is absorbed.
Here in Minnesnowta, there’s still grass poking up here and there through the paltry snow, despite getting nearly two inches this weekend. Last night was our first subzero temps of the season - that normally happens in December. Definitely the warmest, driest winter I’ve experienced in 25 years here.
Just a few months back in India our PM passed the contract for Cutting down 1 Million trees from a forest to open a new Coal mine😶 and here i am getting happy by planting small plants qherever possible and thinking it can help. And its just the story of a single forest where thousands of tribal people live and will be removed and they'll have nowhere to go.
What forest and which company is building the mine?
@@thorkushari4027 Hasdeo forest, and if you are questioning me instead of the gov. then you must be an Andhbhakt.
An economic system that NEEDS endless growth from a finite planet will someday run into serious problems...well, here we are...glad to be an older person...lol...
...unless we venture into the stars and strip mine all of asteroids and inner planets for resources.
@@kaptenhiu5623
Possibly, but I think we're a ways away from that being possible and/or ecomonicaly viable. I seriously doubt we could make that before we're done destroy this place.
Just build another traffic lane logic on a planetary scale
@@T61APL89
I don't think we're capable of building our way out of the mess we're in...certainly not within decades, we're out of time.
@@LandscaperGarry it's a play on the antiquated and illogical approach to traffic; in which lanes are widened to absurd numbers like 26 lanes on the Katy freeway, with the intention of alleviating traffic, rather than simply providing alternatives to driving like public transit, which would solve the root problem by getting cars off the road.
I’m watching this in an area where we are about to get the coldest temperatures on record for my area. Extremes are hard.
Unfalsifiable theories are also hard. 😮
a theory by definition is not unfalsifiable @@neuropuritan_zealot8455
2024 will be the warmest on record because all the data is fraudulent and designed to make every year the so-called warmest on record.
A great way to show the extent of the corruption is with.
Tony Heller climate data corruption business
@@neuropuritan_zealot8455 "Unfalsifiable theories are also hard" Fortunately, climate scientists have made all sorts of predictions/warnings that could have been falsified but instead came true, and so have experts in global ice melt, sea level rise, ecosystem health and biodiversity--ALL are getting worse as faster or faster than the majority of experts in those fields warned back in the 1980s and 1990s.
Bro, it is literally hell in India in Summers.
We are going well beyond 1.5 °C. Make no mistake, your children will have to deal with a 3 °C world. Better if you educate them appropriately.
Already passed 2c. We’ll most likely go extinct at 3c and that will happen this decade
Methane levels are going mental
I'm currently recovering from COVID as well so you did a great job!
Here in Brighton where I live it is freezing at present and there are people that will say that means there must be no global warming. It is exasperating!
Thank you for your excellent video.
I really don´t understand the popularity of climate deniers in the UK to be honest.
it's getting rarer and rarer that I hear someone say "omg it's winter so climate change must be a lie"... it's almost refreshing when I come across that old logical leap..!
@@ClimateAdam More and more people are acknowledging that it is getting hotter, the question they are still asking is, are we contributing, or is it natural cycles?
@@robinhood4640
It seems that many people think that natural climate changes happen by some kind of magic and not by *_physical reasons_* that science can _understand._
@@ClimateAdamactually I’m actually meeting more of these people after a dip the past few years, they just can’t get their heads round the Gulf Stream stuff 😐
Once we stop emitting, we will still continue to heat up with all the carbon in the air. The additional feedbacks have started, and I don't see them stopping. Oh ya, we're not going to stop emitting. So there is that problem to start with.
our best scientific understanding is that once we stop emitting CO2, warming stops (the 'baked in' heating is counteracted by decreases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations after net zero). I discuss in more depth here:
czcams.com/video/Q3Gol-EK1uE/video.html
In general, the amount of "warming in the pipeline" is relatively small, and certainly much smaller than folks like James Hansen make it out to be. The majority of warming caused by emissions happens in the first year, and virtually all of it within ten.
This doesn't address tipping points, but you don't have to worry that all the extra warming we're experiencing now is the product of twenty or thirty years ago. It's the product of the last two or three years.
It's crazy. We're in April now, some sources say a mini heatwave is coming and another says we could get some arctic snow, I'm like make your mind up, it's all so hard to know what to believe.
Im watching this from NW Ohio, where I've been able to bike on and off since early February and it's 70°F at the beginning of March. It's hard to see this early in the year and know that summer is going to come hard and fast.
Since when does the warming need to be over 1.5 degrees for several years? That was never discussed until they realised that we were already at 1.5. The problem is that in 5 years when 2 degrees is gone you'll still be saying that we haven't fully broken through 1.5.
the 10 year running average is the stick that's climate is measured with. So it takes more than 1 year over 1.5 to meet the mark. Much like weather is noise over seasonal variations, yearly temps are the noise over "climate", otherwise one cool year would mean that climate change is "over".
it's when the trend line reaches over 1.5 c not a single blip. Then you are over 1.5c
Whenever I hear the 1.5 C limit being discussed I start worrying about tipping points... the Amazon & other tropical forests are already sufferings severe deforestation due to mining, agriculture & ranching - so VERY vulnerable to climate change impacts. The boreal forests were also hard hit in 2023 by massive wildfires, most notably in Canada. The Antartic ice sheets were also hard hit in 2023 with many Emperor penguin chicks perishing as a result. Many scientists are concerned about the health of the AMOC and the world saw record SSTs & marine heatwaves in 2023.
CO2 concentrations now stand at over 420 ppm (safe level is 350 ppm) and methane levels apparently are also skyrocketing. And many scientists are also beginning to talk about a high Earth Energy Imbalance. And we have now surpassed 6 of the 9 planetary boundaries. And wars & conflicts seem to be escalating, not diminishing. Eish!
Humans are "cutting it very close" in efforts to restore not only the climate but ecological systems, processes & services (provided FREE OF CHARGE by nature), but your optimism gives me a little bit of positivity.
I hope you are feeling better. I look forward to following the latest climate news on your channel. Here's to a "downward trend" in all the right ways and an "upward trend" in all the places that matter. Humans have overcome many challenges in the past and we are capable of doing it again, but this means WORKING TOGETHER - let's hope we can do that in 2024.
"Since when does the warming need to be over 1.5 degrees for several years? That was never discussed until they realised that we were already at 1.5. " NO, "climate and climate change" mean long-term trends, so being truly at +1.5 C was always understood to mean not for a year or too, but averaging that high for at least a decade. But you are right that this leads to too-conservative thinking and too-slow reactions to the crisis.
El nino isn't the whole name, the people who named it called it "El niño de navidad" which means in English you would probably refer to it as the "sweet baby Jesus" current.
Xmas baby actually.
Actually ENSO ”El Niño southern oscillation”
which coincidentally is what I often said in response to the weather this past year.
All the best for your work in the new year.
thanks Thomas - same to you!
I ve been outside everyday since 2001 the weather has been getting hotter a dryer and swings wildly alot more than it did
Here in Southern Quebec, we had wild fires and record heat at end of may, severe thunderstorms etc. This winter had snow but below average. Winter was really warm.
Overshoot, we are in profound ecological overshoot and that is not going to change on any time scale that will matter for several generations of humans.
Yes. And the worst symptom of overshoot - the one with the immediate existential threat - is human caused climate change.
Great video as always. Also, I just gotta say, that beaucarnea behind you is looking mighty radiant! Bless!
I wish you would make videos on :
1 how we know C02 is the primary cause of global warming with focus on historic advance/ lags with temp. Negative and positive feedback mechanisms.
2 What is global everage temp? How is it arrived at and what allowances are made for urban heat & changes in measurement equipment. I've looked at historic temps from the met office for Oxford and see no hockey stick blade from any post industrial boom. Why are the previous years records 'provisional'? Are they adjusted?
3 an in depth look at a computer model . What parameters are used, what systems are modeled.. eg layers of the ocean?, how many layers of the atmosphere? Types of clouds etc. How accurate have models been for any period following, for example, a recent large volcanic eruption ?
Thanks and keep up the good work
If 2023 was the hottest year, then you are the hottest guy. Oh wait
Hey, i like watching your videos most mornings. Thank you for the information. I was wondering if you may be able to do one on agriculture's affect on climate change?
Dude it’s already hot asf in Florida like damnn! We’re used to hot but this is a lot
In the north of Algeria which isn't desert, when I was a kid in the years 1999-2006 summer days were 38c in the worse cases, usually 32c as the typical summer days. Last years it's been 45c+ most of the days from June to early September, it even reaches 53c for more than a week every year.
deserts get it the worst, im sorry
Thanks bro!
I support 7 wild animal environmental organistions plus Amnesty plus Labour for any improvement over. the Tories on climate. So I am disappointed that the destruction of our wild places & creatures does not feature more in climate boiling talks. This also threatens us all with death & extinction. Please amend this at least on your channel?
I've just eaten a fish plucked straight out of the ocean. Perfectly cooked. Just take some herbs, and every beach walk is a feast!
I like your videos because you underline how important is that we still have hope we can overcome this dire situation. Fear and despair are the weapons of those who are actively destroying our world. Don't let them win.
Why has the goal post been moved with the 1850 reference period? There is a paper Paul Beckwith references which estimates 0.14C difference.
Also the moving average definition seems wrong by erasing the extremes which drive tipping points.
_"Theeeere it is again That Funny Feeeeling"_
CLIMATE OPTIMIST
I have the opportunity to participate in the shift towards a better world.
Nicely presented... so of course 'we' can spread the message.
Listened to this on the coldest day 'here' for the couple of years... as it happens.
Keep up the good work and nicely joined to other... crises.
GWS C19 is nasty stuff.
We have broken the 1.5C limit unfortunately. Over 12 months we haven’t, but it’s 1.78C over in the last 4 months. It will hit tipping points as well where the temperature rise won’t be linear, it will accelerate. After this El Niño we might have a couple of years drop slightly but it will quickly get back to where it was and more from what I can gather (I’m not qualified to make statements like this so I’m just venting, but over the last 7 years I’ve been extremely invested in these matters, looking into to data from studies around the world not news articles).
A slight comfort it may be, _but_ climate is a 30 year average, so it has to get this warm for another 10 years to come close to breaching the 1,5.
And, due to "harmonization" of old data , the weather institutes have weeded out some of the old extremes in high temps, resulting in making lower the old average temps. This has made the gap with current average temps up to halve a centigrade bigger. There are scientific arguments for this, _but_ I think they should have left old data files alone. Some meteorologists agree with that.
Otherwise there's no denying temps are up _fast_ and we're sure to breach the 1,5 climate the next decade, at the very last
@@reuireuiop0I think that's something that's been introduced in the last year because it was obvious that 1.5 was gone. Paul Beckwith seems to not have been aware that 1.5 was a rolling average. It probably doesn't matter what you call it, as James Hampson stays we've now entered 1.5 degree climate change territory and that's what we will have to live with.
“A top climate scientist is warning that climate change will wipe out all of humanity unless we stop using fossil fuels over the next five years.” - Greta Thunberg (Tweeted June 2018)
@@mangaman6833
Maybe Greta at that time was a fan of Guy mc Pherson predictions 😊
@@mangaman6833 she’s correct. We’re locked into this now, no matter what we do there is no stopping it
I’m glad you end your videos with a sprinkle of positivity cuz I was an anxious mess through the whole video. Not that I’m not still an anxious mess, but I feel a tad better 😅
If you have climate anxiety, it might be an idea to focus on videos about what we can do. We already know it will be bad, I want to be active not anxious.
Get well soon Adam! ❤
Thank you! 💚
To ask the question is to answer it. The number of people in denial about our extinction is just shocking. Wow, people are dumb.
2 different ideas of the climate change causes:
a) Creative Society scientists studies
b) Guy mc Pherson
I'm not here to say mass extinction event in 2027/8, what I got years ago is that we can't exclude an abrupt and rapid collapse.
Almost of the systems work ok when they don't reach the saturation; but sometimes the saturation can be reach (slow or fast) and then the breakdown is often simultaneous.
Google what happened to woolly mammoths. Spoiler alert global warming. The earth is millions of years old your research 150 years. lol.
@@LittleJack-qe1ft
12.000 years cicles: Creative Society, Suspicious Observer,
Douglas Vogt, Egon Cholakian and others ....
Hi! Thanks for sharing, in Southern Africa, Botswana we are also surprised about this heat, believe me we are used to the heat but this one in March 2024 takes the cup. This extreme heart started the end of 2023 and this is the first in my life. This last week was so hot I remember waking up around 2 am feeling very hot in my bed.
Yes it will keep getting hotter & hotter, it's what happens when you put a heat trapping blanket over the Earth!!!
Just had this conversation with my kids a few weeks ago. 2023 will b remembered as the 1st hottest yr on record BUT only silly peeps think it won't regularly b surpassed.
1.5??? Very last decade goal👈
I really love your Channel mate :) I studied Renewable Energy Sciences and am always following Climate News and Conservation News. People love to be negative but you keep things realistic but not doom and gloom which is so refreshing. It's like the media always focuses on the negatives when it comes to climate and never covers the positives, we need people like you to tell us not all hope is lost! Keep up the great work!
thank you so much - comments like this really mean so much to me 💚
Yes, the positives more land to grow stuff on.
Renewables are a scam!! Just like rising sea levels. Why do so many millionaires buy mansions on the coast. Next thing you'll be telling us that it is mankind that is at fault for the movement of the tectonic plates.
Did you know that the Statue of Liberty is for sale? Going cheap.
Google what happened to the woolly mammoths. Spoiler alert global warming. The earth is millions of years old. This research 150. Come on wake up.
@@Delt4_Cr4wfish "Yes, the positives more land to grow stuff on." Unfortunately, most of that land has poor soil and there are currently forests on much of it, and chopping down those forests just causes more global warming and destroys more biodiversity, while shifting agricultural areas causes geopolitical instability, and the coming reductions in agricultural yields will mean more famine and social uprisings and breakdown of governments.
Hot topic.
Thank you, C Adam.
My bigger concern is the constant focus on carbon as the only issue.
Toxicity from mining (a whole lot of new mining in the remaining more pristine environments out of sight of general populations eg South America, Africa, Australia, off shore, and much more) , industrial agriculture and industrialism in general.
Ramping down expansion is the only option for a healthy viable future,
The drastic reduction in climate cooling SO2 emissions from marine fuels is partially to blame for record jump.
Also, I think the paper 'Global warming in Pipeline' is not far from truth of what in store for us.
If you want to hear the mainstream view now, listen to IPCC.
If you want to hear the mainstream view in ten years, listen to James Hansen.
Well, IPCC has been making some chances, now allowing for possible tipping points. Our national weather institute even put a report featuring a low 1,8 scenario and a _drastic_ one resembling the old RCP 8,5, arguing that even if we succeed in taking timely measures, some tipping points may still be triggered, and put us in dire straits. And that's the official national met Institute, not some climate action org.
Excellent video! 😊
Adam, what is your view on Global Warming in the Pipeline, the recent paper on Sulfur aerosol masking?
And the CERES satellite measurement of Earth’s energy imbalance, please :)
From Singapore here . Getting hotter and humidity raising . Taking showers 3 times a day when I never on my aircon .
Your message is clear, even with brain fog. 👍 Hope you're feeling better.
Thanks Tom 💚
Is there any hope if all of the positive progress we’re making is still not enough to slow down the worse of what’s to come?
NO!!!
All what positive progress your kidding right
The progress did show things down in the long run, but that is not much visible if things still are worsening fast. Things will only stop worsening when we reach net zero emissions globaly.
@@senhox970 only if we haven't triggered a feedback loop by that point
@@oleonard7319 we have I would say the melting of the artic is a major feed back loop
Danke!
Thanks so much for your support!
Do understand----and this is important::: CROPS ARE GROWN IN WEATHER, not averages.
Rest up and be gentle in your recovery. Don’t take on extra load right now.
2024 like 2024 degrees above normal....
But the world doesn't seem to care (or realize what is coming)..
Nothing is coming
Hi ClimateAdam I've been getting really hot temperatures in my city and fires breaking out in my county in northern California and I've been experiencing power outages and fields on fire the worst part of it I've witnessed power utility poles overheat and explode I'm not even sure what is happening right now 2024 is gonna be an awful year
Is the UK going to get a hot summer this year?
i live near canada and this winter has been warm for weeks. its starting to freak me out
Less people are dying from weather events than ever before. We have had more than 0.04 % co2 in the atmosphere before millions of years ago. 130 thousand years ago, there were tropical plants and animals around the river Thames.
No no, it’s climate change, trust trust
Great video, despite the brain fog! Hope you recovered swiftly and fully :)
Great video
still waiting for a nice summer
Gute Besserung!
Danke dir! 💚
February 2023 in Michigan, where 2023 seemed not to be 'that bad' here... but the winter has been weak. This begins to suggest an early transition to a hot, dry summer here.
8:37 "Once we stop emitting the world will stop heating"? How quick? Won't atmospheric GHG and ocean heat continue to increase air surface temperature? And let's hope we do not trigger any major positive feedback loop of natural GHG emissions.
That said, I agree that we have a lot of the things we need to cut our emissions sharply and so maybe we are still in time to limit warming "well below 2ºC".
I'm glad you asked! The details are a lil complicated but the headline is that heating stops roughly when we stop emitting (the effects you describe are canceled out by the decrease in atmospheric co2 concentrations after emissions zero out). Here's a full vid on the topic! czcams.com/video/Q3Gol-EK1uE/video.htmlsi=a9gG5tkvfNRwokGw
@@ClimateAdam Phew! That is good news. I'll take a look at the video now. Thanks!
@@ClimateAdam Very clearly explained, thank you. As a suggestion, I think many people like me are worried about some of James Hansen's claims, so it might be a good idea to review the state of our knowledge about paleoclimate, the aerosol effect, how big are our uncertainties and what are the best estimates, and whether we should expect an acceleration of warming as claimed by Hansen.
I am from north india, usually december and January are considered coldest months but today(18/01/2024) my mom was telling my father that it's hot today, i am worried about summers,how hot are they gonna be?
I heared it and felt so tensed that yes she is right
We have longer summers, how we'll survive.
I feel the non binding agreements that our government signs are useless.
As the world is divided into developed,developing and least developed
The developed nations should help developing and least develped nations by keeping egos aside and should not ask them to eliminate the use of fossils fuels.
In india,my government is taking many initiatives to make a trasition from fossile fuel to clean fuels but we can't achieve this in few seconds because transition takes time,the developed nations have technology but we don't have alternatives but again when climate is changing ,earth is boiling the so called developed also can't hide themselves.
We are all one in this scenario
We all should help each other
We all should control our wants
Bro we will die imagine going to school
One of the biggest limitations of the human brain is that we think linearly, it is VERY difficult to internalise compounding scenarios. I wish i could recall some of the analogies which helped me understand XD But Tony Seba, while not explaining compounding (that i know of) uses it in his future projections for 'disruptive technology' progression and it is the sole reason i have hope as our world governments seem to be enslaved to fossil fuels, doing the bare minimum at best so as to avoid uprisings. Im convinced millions will die and life will be survival based for those of us who've never expected to experience that. But thanks to tony seba, i have belief that just enough will happen in just enough time that the world can eventually recover and reverse the damage. It'll be a bottle-neck and we are only able to choose how wide that bottleneck will be with today's actions.
My gratitude goes to all the inventors and scientists who've been helping to birth a greener world
Is the record loss of ice in the Antartic te same as a blue ocean event i the artic? If so surely that accounts for the heat?
When we stop emitting the temperature will stop rising? That doesn't seem right to me...
We passed the limit...the new reference point is 1850-1900, where it was originally 1750.
Was it in 2023 we learned that the permafrost is melting at an alarming rate? Locally lots of trees were cut down to build a warehouse that still no one needs.
17th November 2023, was over 2 degrees C.
Breaking the curve of emissions will not lead to leas heating right away, bit less drastic increase in heating over time. And less severe weather over time. And less mean temperature over time. Remember the 100 year delay of break down in the atmosphere we are dealing with w. CO2 - that only makes it more urgent to ensure more, better and faster climate action…
So you are saying the weather in cooler times was less severe? Maybe read some history? Read up on the 17th century, when fun times were being had by all. Every major civilisation was in dire turmoil, because of weather extremes. Right across the planet countries were losing up to 50% of their populations, often more than once. Low CO2 and bitter cold. The Dark Ages were great too. Humans only thrived in warm temperatures. But of course we are only a cancer on this planet, so you should be rooting for multiple tipping points, that you hope will bring on our extinction? And when are you leaving, to go and demonstrate in China?
Here it was the mildest summer i can remember..14 days over 40c in a raw..and thats it.. normally its near or over 40c..about 40 days a summer that last 4 months strong
Australia?
where in the world are you and you must have an air conditioner and rarely go out to think 40 celsius is mild💀
@@sakmadik69420 Cyprus...yes 40c for me its ok..43 to 45c and 90% humidity is the problem..you have to know that dry heat like in middle east is very ok even at 47c....humid makes it unbearable
When we stop emitting, we stop warming? What about the aerosol masking effect? We could/should see higher global temperatures as the dimming effect of aerosols disappears.
The 1.5 deg "limit" is an artificial rubicon, we really don't know what that means, other than worse then it is now. One thing I find a bit troubling is that it is a fact that the land masses of the northern hemisphere, where most of the population of world live, is warming at twice the rate of the total global temperature. So for most people we have long since passed 1.5 deg C, and within a few decades we could have parts of the northern land mass temperatures beyond human survivability - with consequent massive forced migration and civilisational pressures that we're not equipped to handle.
Can you do a video on Icelands volcano thats riping them apart right now.
Or was that Greenland 🤔 damit i forgot wich one just went off in the most cool and violent way possible without literally blowing its top like mount sant hellens.
I forgot to ask the reason why i made this text lol can you talk about how it will effect the atmosphere do to all the extra reflective particals and the extra co2 in the local area can do.
we have passed the 1,5 C barrier in Dec (the average calulation)
I take issue with the phrase "stop emitting and stop the heating", seems to me we are too far gone for it to be that simple or "easy".
In 2034 they will remember 2024 as the coldest in the last decade
5:30 Climates--love that
Just subscribed
I'm from Indonesia,Java Island. i am constantly sweating waterfall in march and april💀
The answer is to adapt to our environment. Not try to make the environment adapt to us
"The answer is to adapt to our environment. Not try to make the environment adapt to us" NO, we are the ones steadily disrupting the climate and destroying the Earth's ability to support life, and we need to stop doing that, or we're toast.
@karlwheatley1244 Yeah, because decomposing plant life and volcano eruptions don't emit any carbon dioxide into the atmosphere whatsoever. It's all disgusting human's fault, and we should all just stop existing...
Nordstream had a huge effect. Not PC to mention.
The winter here in Sweden is certainly not so hot -- below zero now for weeks -- and many more weeks to come. Send some of that hot air, thanks, my wood pile is shrinking fast.
Ja men det var likadant 2010 vintern. Men globalt så var det varmaste året. Vem vet 2025 kanske blir super varmt i Sverige. Fast globalt kanske inte det varmaste året. sen när man kollar på klimatet så kollar man runt 30år och 1991-2020 är varmaste 30åren någonsin i Sverige.
@@jesperhammarlund300 - I was sort of joking there. They say that 2024 is going to break new records.
==> Thank you, Adam, for your clear-eyed, balanced, and succinct report on what 2024 may bring. Much appreciated! . . . .
thanks Mike!
Once we stop adding CO2 its going to hang around for a hundred years or so doesn't it? If the associated aerosol emissions also stop which settle out much faster won't there be an additional rise in temperature? Or do you think albedo will ballance out? I have not seen much at all where aerosols are taken into account.
Someone please bring this heat to the UK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If it arrives, you might regret it. We’ve had the hottest, driest 7 months on record here. It’s great weather, until you realise crops don’t like the heat and no rain. They’ve even needed to truck in water and hay for livestock.
I would think that methane and the loss of arctic permafrost were bigger problems than the burning of fossil fuel.
How long do we have to be over 1.5 before it's official? Five years? Thirty years? When they are finally forced into nearly admitting it they'll switch the baseline to 1980 or something.
" Once we stop emitting we stop heating." Well that's not true is it? What about the aerosol masking effect? This is partly to blame for the record heat in 2023, as the shipping lanes were cleaned up.
the baseline is widely understood to be 1850-1900, and there's no set-in-stone agreement on how we'd know we've passed it, but this proposal has attracted a lot of attention:
e360.yale.edu/digest/1.5-degrees-scientific-consensus
here's my discussion on what happens when we stop emitting:
czcams.com/video/Q3Gol-EK1uE/video.html
What do you think of the degrowth movement and how, if we're to put a system in place that prevents global warming, we need to create a new movement, one that uses degrowth as its underlying motivator, to get the larbour movements and working class formations (a lot of movements) to make change in goverment to instill degrowth as our new economic system? Does that seem to be the only real way to stop global warming to you?
Degrowth will be great. I'm looking forward to going back to living in mud huts, on dirt floors. There has been a trial run. Look up year zero.
Maybe developed countries could consider degrowth, but developing countries are not going to buy into degrowth, and you can't blame them!
Were humans really recording temperatures 125,000 years ago? How did they measure them? And how did they record them?
lol, there are these things called core samples. They tell scientists all kinds of information.
All this water & wind will strip huge amounts of soil, ie. Moving food growing soil?
thank you so much adam, you have been the perfect source of information for me about this stuff as i can get informed without panicking. I dropped my patreon tier quite a bit last month but that has no relation to the quality of your work its just been a hard few months. Keep it up!
thanks so much - and support of all kinds (not just patreon) mean the world to me (and my ability to run the channel)!
Fake information
Yes
Not sure where you spent your 2023 Adam but here in the Midlands it was the wettest and coldest weather I can remember in my lifetime. Rained through July, rained through August, tomatoes were more than 6 weeks late and the harvest was disastrous. Honestly, it often seems like weathermen live on a completely different planet.
The West Midlands does not represent a significant portion of the world's land mass. Calculating its percentage in relation to the global land mass would result in an extremely small fraction, likely approaching zero percent. Stick to the gardening
@@nibblersnuts7835 How about 40 years of wrong weather prediction. Does that count?
@@nibblersnuts7835 They actually found a lot of their warming from The Congo, and the middle of the oceans. Phoenix was hot, Sardinia and Italy had a hot week- when it was snowing in the Alps, China had a hot spell. I doubt that is enough to force a record, when Antarctica was record cold, and the Southern Hemisphere in general wasn't hot. The first time in 140 years that Sydney never reached 30 degrees over summer. But we must go with the 97% consensus that 2023 was the hottest year EVER. That mountain valley in Sardinia was scorching, and The Congo's single thermometer did magnificent work. @nibblersnuts7835
@@kubhlaikhan2015 "How about 40 years of wrong weather prediction. Does that count?" Two thoughts. First, weather prediction and climate prediction are two different things. Second, there are 14 different climate models, some of which are 20+, 30+, and 40+ years old and which have been quite accurately predicting future man-made global warming for decades now.
Why can't we just plant native plants and trees from seed for genetic diversity.
Unlike trees you see in cities now there almost all clones from a tree over 100 years ago.
Here in Costa Rica, we are already between 1 and 2 C above the average for this time of year. And we are on drought alert. I live in the central highlands, where January is supposed to be cool and windy.. It’s so hot it's ridiculous. Also, some regions have already passed the 1.5 limit. It won't happen everywhere at once, and it will go up and down before settling.
What happened to the 1930s?
Every time they change the methodology,the temperature rises.
Maybe it's just coincidence.
Don't worry in 8 or so years during the next El Nino we will never see a year under 1.5c again.