Stock Price Prediction & Forecasting with LSTM Neural Networks in Python

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  • čas přidán 25. 03. 2022
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Komentáře • 262

  • @GregHogg
    @GregHogg  Před 6 měsíci +3

    I offer 1 on 1 tutoring for Data Structures & Algos, and Analytics / ML! Book a free consultation here: calendly.com/greghogg/30min

    • @user-mz2fd1dr9g
      @user-mz2fd1dr9g Před 4 měsíci

      please provide link for that big Window code tutorial. Thanks

    • @Santhosh_sandi
      @Santhosh_sandi Před 3 měsíci +1

      go through his notebook which is the first description@@user-mz2fd1dr9g

    • @elbala777
      @elbala777 Před 3 měsíci

      Thank you so much for this video. IT taught me LSTM and how to use Python

    • @RI-zn3ju
      @RI-zn3ju Před měsícem +1

      I have a LSTM Model that I think is good but I want it to run multiple stock tickers at the same time to save time and give me all their individual results. I am having a tough time figuring out how to do this and am constantly getting errors can you help?

  • @OtRatsaphong
    @OtRatsaphong Před 2 lety +2

    Great video, Gregg. Best one I’ve on how to implement LSTM on stock price prediction. I’m going to see if I can replicate this LSTM. Thank you 👍🙏

  • @TheRafler
    @TheRafler Před 2 lety +41

    I believe your final recurrent forecasting is wrong. last_window should be initialized outside the loop, and then for each loop do np.roll(last_window,-1) and update last_window(-1) such that you have a continuously-moving window. In your case you only update the last value, but the rest remain fixed and that is why your prediction remains flat.

    • @clintonletsoela1479
      @clintonletsoela1479 Před rokem

      @TheRafler can you please paste the code, I tried using np.roll as you suggested but the prediction is still flat.

    • @shengchuangfeng227
      @shengchuangfeng227 Před rokem +3

      @@clintonletsoela1479
      I tried something similar, and it soon converged. But you can see for the first few loops, the predicted values are different. In the video, the predicted values are always the same, meaning the last_window variable is not updated.
      Here is my code:
      from copy import deepcopy
      recursive_predictions = []
      recursive_dates=np.concatenate([dates_val, dates_test])
      last_window = deepcopy(X_train[-1])
      for target_date in recursive_dates:
      next_prediction=model.predict(np.array([last_window[-3:]])).flatten()
      recursive_predictions.append(next_prediction)
      last_window=np.concatenate((last_window,[next_prediction]))
      #print(last_window)
      print(recursive_predictions)

    • @obedrolland3259
      @obedrolland3259 Před 8 měsíci

      @@shengchuangfeng227 you can do even better just by doing last_window = np.concatenate([last_window[-2:], np.array(next_prediction)]). You won’t need anymore to specify last_window[-3:] in your model.predict() function.

    • @obedrolland3259
      @obedrolland3259 Před 8 měsíci +2

      We don’t need a np.roll() function. He should just change the last_window expression in the loop by :
      last_window = np.concatenate([last_window[-2:], np.array(next_prediction)]).

  • @37gippo
    @37gippo Před rokem +1

    You're a legend I was looking for ages for a explanation like this one

  • @cesarfierro4792
    @cesarfierro4792 Před 9 měsíci +2

    Great video, it's really well explained. I was expecting the recursive predictions to work a little bit better since I will apply this to a school project more oriented to failure detection but I understand that's a hard task. But still is a great base to start with. Thanks so much.

  • @tariqmahmood2734
    @tariqmahmood2734 Před rokem +3

    Hi Greg, its a nice video to learn. Can u explain what changes we should made to forecast the values after the dates_test, mean after the end date (mentioned in the 2022-03-23) for few days or weeks.

  • @luisaurso
    @luisaurso Před 3 měsíci

    Hey Greg, thanks for sharing your knowledge. Amazing video and very well explained. Following you onwards

  • @Nedwin
    @Nedwin Před 2 lety

    Yay, 2nd comment!! My Saturday night is now completed with this video! Thanks Gregg.

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety +1

      You're very welcome and have a great night!

  • @jtrobotics5421
    @jtrobotics5421 Před rokem +13

    the value at the end is constant because theres a big logic error in your foor loop. as you always set it back to x_test[-1] before the prediction. s.t. the LSTM will output a constant value.
    Non the less if you do it correctly (i just tried it) the prediction will ofc diverge from the stock price anyways (it ll keep going in the direction of first prediction

    • @benjamintenbuuren9652
      @benjamintenbuuren9652 Před dnem

      Can you show the example on how you change it? I also noticed that it is incorrect but have no idea how to correct it.

  • @arsheyajain7055
    @arsheyajain7055 Před 2 lety +1

    Was waiting for this one!!

  • @peralser
    @peralser Před rokem

    Amazing video. You were so clear to explain! Thanks!

  • @timseed4489
    @timseed4489 Před 2 lety +2

    One of the best explanations on the subject - I would do some of the pandas stuff slightly different - but overall 10/10

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety

      Yeah, I would too looking back. But thanks - great to hear!

  • @alexchirapozu3234
    @alexchirapozu3234 Před rokem +9

    Hi Greg, I believe that you made a mistake at the recursive prediction. If you print your windows, you'll see that every time you predict with the same 3 values, instead of changing it at every iteration. That is why your plot is completely flat, which it shouldn't. Here is my correction (just for last 14 days), I think it's OK:
    recursive_predictions = []
    recursive_dates = dates_test[-14:]
    last_window = X_test[-14]
    for target_date in recursive_dates:
    print(last_window)
    next_prediction = model.predict(np.array([last_window])).flatten()
    recursive_predictions.append(next_prediction)
    new_window = list(last_window[1:])
    new_window.append(next_prediction)
    new_window = np.array(new_window)
    last_window = new_window
    If you try to predict with it still doesn't fit to the actual values, but at least is not a straight line hehehe

    • @DevilErnest
      @DevilErnest Před rokem +3

      from copy import deepcopy
      recursive_predictions = []
      recursive_dates = np.concatenate([dates_val, dates_test])
      last_window = deepcopy(X_train[-1])
      for target_date in recursive_dates:
      next_prediction = model.predict(np.array([last_window])).flatten()
      recursive_predictions.append(next_prediction)
      last_window = np.append(last_window[1:], next_prediction)

    • @arpadikuma
      @arpadikuma Před 11 měsíci +1

      @@DevilErnest this one almost worked, the last line needs to be
      last_window = np.concatenate([last_window[1:], [next_prediction]])
      otherwise it errored out on me.
      But yeah this is the way how last_window actually gets updated with the last three predictions of each iteration
      Still the result is almost a straight line...too bad :]

  • @senna_william
    @senna_william Před 2 lety +1

    The final catch was fantastic, thanks for the lesson!

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety +1

      Yeah I feel like adding that in there is very useful to know haha

    • @senna_william
      @senna_william Před 2 lety

      At first I thought "I do not believe that he will be able to predict the market only with this information", a good lesson, congratulations!

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety +1

      @@senna_william yeah! :)

  • @mrrolandlawrence
    @mrrolandlawrence Před rokem

    wow amazing. for a tiny mortal without a PHD in maths i actually understood all what you said. amazing work

  • @zeroj7492
    @zeroj7492 Před rokem

    really nice tutorial and thank you so much for making it brother

  • @gayanc6193
    @gayanc6193 Před rokem

    Great content solved one of my major problems. many thanks❣

  • @quanxu1
    @quanxu1 Před rokem +6

    awesome video 👍 the flat line from recursive prediction is most likely caused by an glitch in the code. "last_window = deepcopy..." should be moved up and outside of the loop. After that's fixed, my guess is that the recursive predictions will converge going forward into an almost flat line

    • @Algardraug
      @Algardraug Před rokem

      Yeah, I noticed that too. Glad I'm not the only one! The loop is overwriting the last_window at the start so predicting on the same data in every loop should reasonably result in the same value.
      Also setting last_window[-1] = next_prediction every loop seems wrong. Realistically, you would want to shift the first two values before doing that otherwise, you'd be stuck with the first two values in the list the whole time. It should probably be something like this
      last_window = last_window[:-1]
      last_window.append(next_prediction)
      (I'm not very good at python)

    • @YoungMoneyInvestments
      @YoungMoneyInvestments Před 9 měsíci

      Glad someone else caught this.

    • @idrisseahamadiabdallah7669
      @idrisseahamadiabdallah7669 Před 8 měsíci

      @@YoungMoneyInvestments , have you tried this ? Because i want do forecasting, like predict after the test_dates that we already have ?

    • @YoungMoneyInvestments
      @YoungMoneyInvestments Před 8 měsíci

      @@idrisseahamadiabdallah7669I have and haven’t been able to get anything over 60% on shorter timeframes. I’m using 15 min candles with about 80k candles of data. It has been harder than I anticipated. I’ve tried 3 variations of LSTM’s,, 3 different random forests, a perception, and I’m not yet at the point where im pleased with the results.

  • @MrLam-lx7td
    @MrLam-lx7td Před rokem

    Thank , so much ! Very good project .

  • @ivancostabernardo7670
    @ivancostabernardo7670 Před 2 lety

    Thanks for the brilliant work!

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety +1

      Thanks so much for the kind words Ivan!! :)

  • @carrocesta
    @carrocesta Před 11 měsíci

    Greg, you are the man! greetings from Spain :)

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 11 měsíci +1

      Thanks so much! I'd love to visit Spain some day

  • @rileyclubb
    @rileyclubb Před 2 lety +4

    I'm trying to adapt your code to hourly and minute time series. I think I need to modify the complicated section that you mention @6:40 can you help me find that tutorial to understand this section? I don't see that in the video description above

  • @ryanmilgrim6427
    @ryanmilgrim6427 Před rokem +7

    I know little about machine learning but I think you could fix the extrapolation probelm by making predictions on the stock's log return rathern than price. with a pandas dataframe it should be a line like np.log( 1 + df.pct_change() ). The goal is to get the data down to a stationary time series, so modeling returns should get you closer but the data is not quite symmetric, which is why you also take the log. of course, you outout then becomes a series of logreturns, which you will have to apply this line to fix, np.cumprod( np.exp(df) - 1 ).

  • @ivandozoretz3031
    @ivandozoretz3031 Před rokem +4

    Great video! I've just one doubt: if I want to put the model in 'production' and predict prices for the next month, I won't have the previous 3 prices for most of those dates (in that production dataset). So, is it right to include those features in training,validation and test set?

    • @otaviocoutinho2855
      @otaviocoutinho2855 Před rokem

      I have the exact same doubt. Shame nobody aswered. I this ideia we could only predict the next day, but what you can do is try to make the same he did in the validation, you must try to predict a larger range of days and the performance will drop quickly, but problably enough for a few days ahead. Which I find interesting besides being limited.

  • @folashadeolaitan6222
    @folashadeolaitan6222 Před 2 lety +5

    Hi Greg, thank you for another awesome video. I am working on a multivariate LSTM and i have scaled my data (containing both the input and output variables) as in the code below.
    scaler = StandardScaler()
    scaler = scaler.fit(df_train)
    df_train_scaled = scaler.transform(df_train)
    Now, doing inverse_transform as below in order to be able to compare my predicted values with the actual, i am getting an error.
    prediction_copies = np.repeat(prediction, df_train.shape[1], axis=-1)
    #This will repeat the prediction the number of times columns it was originally scaled with
    y_pred = scaler.inverse_transform(prediction_copies)[:,0]
    #Here i am taking all the rows and just the first column, since the other columns are replications of the first.
    ERROR
    Found array with dim 3. StandardScaler expected

    • @gauravnarkhede3622
      @gauravnarkhede3622 Před rokem +1

      I am also working on LSTM

    • @folashadeolaitan6222
      @folashadeolaitan6222 Před rokem +1

      @@gauravnarkhede3622 Nice one Gaurav, how is it going with u?

    • @gauravnarkhede3622
      @gauravnarkhede3622 Před rokem

      @@folashadeolaitan6222 Good, need some company to work

    • @jpaulexo
      @jpaulexo Před 8 měsíci

      ​Hi ​@@folashadeolaitan6222Did you found the error?

    • @jakob4371
      @jakob4371 Před 4 měsíci

      Its an extremely basic one, so it should be resolved by now.

  • @JilN660
    @JilN660 Před 8 měsíci +1

    Hi thanks a lot for this video! How would you move from forecast to a Signal 1/0/-1 column to be applied to the price variation? I have issues with potential future leakage and the condition to use to create the signal. 😊

  • @1990lietuva
    @1990lietuva Před 8 měsíci +2

    Hi, I might be wrong here but I think one of your issues about recursive prediction is - that you always replace the last element, meaning that it tried to predict from the same values with the last one changed, and that might be why it predicts the same. I would change the part to be (append prediction to the end) and pop the first one out,

    • @LawrenceReitan
      @LawrenceReitan Před 6 měsíci

      Which is pretty much the same copy paste mistake all these stock predictors wannabe do
      Appreciate the effort in confusing thousands of people though...

  • @user-qy6sj1zv1l
    @user-qy6sj1zv1l Před rokem +9

    I'm gonne make a "course" about machine learning but I actually don't know how it works so I'm gonna copy-paste this function and voila, working like a charm. Way to go

  • @yan200go
    @yan200go Před 11 měsíci

    this actually explained things that I didn't understand by other people's explaination

  • @crazychutties3766
    @crazychutties3766 Před 2 lety

    Great Stuff... When I'm redoing for a shorter tenure (for last 1 year), the Training Predictions is coming up as a straight line. Where am I going wrong pls?

  • @rohanaryan2231
    @rohanaryan2231 Před 5 měsíci

    hey!
    love the way you deliver your content sir! learnt a lot from you. just a quick question, can we use a direct type conversion to convert the type of date (pd.to_datetime or astype(datetime64)). if yes why didnt you use it and create a function for the conversion, how is it different from doing it directly as i mentioned above.
    thanks!! good day!!

  • @rushilsingh
    @rushilsingh Před měsícem

    00:00 Forecasting Microsoft stock using LSTM neural networks.
    03:56 Convert date column to datetime objects and make it the index of the dataframe
    07:44 Convert the given data frame into numpy arrays for input and output
    11:28 Performing univariate forecasting on closing value over time
    15:06 Create and train a sequential model with LSTM and dense layers
    18:35 The LSTM model for predicting data shows poor performance on validation and test sets.
    22:00 Training LSTM model on a subset of data to improve prediction accuracy.
    25:19 The model recursively predicts future values based on the available data.

  • @manuelnovella39
    @manuelnovella39 Před rokem +1

    Man, at 6:40 you refer to a tutorial in the video description that explains the function df_to_windowed_df. What link is that, exactly? Can't find it

  • @heribertoquintanilla743
    @heribertoquintanilla743 Před rokem +1

    Thanks a lot Greg, very interesting. One question, once you have your model, how to add new data, without re-train the whole model, but train just the new data and predict under the whole dataset? does it make sense? thanks a lot!

    • @andrewlichte6734
      @andrewlichte6734 Před 7 měsíci

      I think at some point you have to retrain your model. like how Greg threw out all the old data because microsoft went parabolic in the more recent years. the model didn't know how to cope with that. it's like budgeting gas money for a trip, but your're using gas prices from 5 years ago. You're just not gonna get where you want to go.

  • @liornisimov9367
    @liornisimov9367 Před rokem +20

    Hi, great video!
    I have written a more efficient function to window the data using the pandas "shift" method.
    Feel free to use it!
    def window_data(data, n=3):
    windowed_data = pd.DataFrame()
    for i in range(n, 0, -1):
    windowed_data[f'Target-{i}'] = data['Close'].shift(i)
    windowed_data['Target'] = data['Close']
    return windowed_data.dropna()

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před rokem +2

      Thanks so much, well done!

    • @Adriannotadrien33
      @Adriannotadrien33 Před 10 měsíci +1

      This doesn't have an integer index so the resultant shape of X is wrong

    • @MrDaniloDj
      @MrDaniloDj Před 5 měsíci

      ​@@GregHogg Pin this!

    • @majilarohit4
      @majilarohit4 Před 5 měsíci

      @liornisimov9367 You should start a channel. Thanks:)

  • @moekhaled
    @moekhaled Před rokem

    thank you , where is the windowed_df code explanation ? i could not find it in the description ?

  • @britox.6216
    @britox.6216 Před rokem

    still hate how you left us on a cliffhanger greg! please make a part two!

  • @anatoliyzavdoveev4252

    Super tutorial 💪 great code💪💪🤝

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před rokem

      Thanks so much and great to hear!!

  • @alrey72
    @alrey72 Před rokem +2

    Nice, very detailed. I just have a few questions:
    1. I suppose Sequential means Time Series. If that's the case, is there still a need to create 3 columns for the last 3 closing prices? My understanding of Time Series is it automatically looks on the order of values (output of last record is input of current record).
    2. Believe LSTM is an optimization technique so that if there are many layers, the vanishing gradient problem will not be encountered. I'm also confused since you mentioned Adam (I'm not familiar with it) as optimizer so it might be in conflict with LSTM?
    3. You mentioned LSTM(64) means 64 nodes and Dense(32) means 32 layers .. so its just 2 nodes per layer?
    Thanks.

    • @lorryzou9367
      @lorryzou9367 Před rokem

      the last 3 closing prices are our input features, and the closing price for today is the output/prediction value.

    • @alrey72
      @alrey72 Před rokem

      @@lorryzou9367 Yes that's the intention. However, the neural network used is time series so the last 3 closing prices is redundant. If a feed forward neural network is used then the input of last 3 closing prices is logical.

  • @anmolpreet8959
    @anmolpreet8959 Před 2 lety

    Congrats on Hitting 22k Subs.

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety

      Aw thanks Anmol, and nice dab!!

  • @runpinghuang9259
    @runpinghuang9259 Před rokem

    Hi Greg, my MAE is getting pretty huge, do you have any idea how to fix it? And wondering why you can achieve the low MAE without standardization, thanks!

  • @tiagobrito9765
    @tiagobrito9765 Před 2 lety +4

    Another great video!
    I have a doubt:
    My date column is in the format day/month/year hour:minutes.
    What should I change in the str_to_datetime def function to show hours and minutes?

  • @DevilErnest
    @DevilErnest Před rokem +1

    Hi Greg, great video and I learnt a lot here. May I ask whether detrending and deseasonalisation (if they exist) are needed during time series modelling. There are resources out there which suggests these should be done and the series must be stable before feeding time series to the model, while others (like yours) don't really care about trends and seasonality within the model and let the model does its work. My guess is there's no right or wrong answer to it, but what's the reasoning behind these decisions in time series modeling using machine learning algos? Thanks.

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před rokem +1

      There's always multiple ways of doing things. In theory you try everything and do what works best

    • @fluctura
      @fluctura Před rokem

      majjjggic😂

  • @mahdis-hs6bn
    @mahdis-hs6bn Před rokem

    Hi
    the reason that it couldn't predict correctly was because there was never a rise like the test set in train set right ?

  • @konstantintomilin1826

    Would be interesting to see how inclusion of other features like trading volume and maybe some common technical analysis indicators could affect prediction!

    • @fluctura
      @fluctura Před rokem

      I'll do this and keep you posted

    • @dnas5629
      @dnas5629 Před rokem

      I have backtested many of the TI and found they are broken clocks. Not that they are not useful to help filter data, but as for predictions they ideal. The oscillators help with sideways markets, but not trending. Detecting trends before they happen is tough. As for inputs into predictive models I do not think it will help the model. But definitely try. TALIB is best library for that.

  • @cbassett123
    @cbassett123 Před rokem +1

    6:40 "If you need to know what that code is, check out the tutorial"...
    Can you please add the tutorial to the description? Thank you!!

  • @timnilson
    @timnilson Před 4 měsíci +1

    The first 6 minutes could be shortened to:
    df['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(df['Date'])
    df.set_index('Date', inplace=True)

  • @arfasobirhanu4801
    @arfasobirhanu4801 Před rokem

    Where can I get the description function for df_to_windowed_df function, sir?

  • @luisaurso
    @luisaurso Před 3 měsíci

    Greg if I understood correctly I can include more variables (multivariate) to make predictions (e.g. Predict the sales for Icecream using the Units per Day + Temperature) and for that I would need to include these 2 variables into the dataset and reshare the feature (X) accordingly, but I got confuded on how to windows the data ?

  • @user-cz2dl7yg6f
    @user-cz2dl7yg6f Před 7 měsíci

    Where do I find windowing the data frame video the size doesn't support my dataframe and how do I change the dates according to the size of the window?

  • @onlystudy4645
    @onlystudy4645 Před měsícem +1

    at 11:41 why we have to convert it to 3-D matrix, can't we train the lstm on 2-d X matrix?

  • @jeraldgooch6438
    @jeraldgooch6438 Před 2 lety

    Greg, Thanks for this. Two questions
    1. Will adding in more target values (e.g. go to Target-10) help?
    2. What would shuffling the windowed data set do? At least some of the data in the training set would be after 2016 then.
    Thanks

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety

      Changing the window may help. Not sure what you mean by shuffling.

    • @jeraldgooch6438
      @jeraldgooch6438 Před 2 lety

      @@GregHoggsklearn.utils.shuffle i think is what i mean. In your windowed dataframe, the 2nd row might end up as the 100th row, the 3rd as the 250th, the 1000th might end up as the second and so on. Obviously I do not have enough of the vocabulary to truly express myself and typing on an iPad is a bit clunky!

    • @jeraldgooch6438
      @jeraldgooch6438 Před 2 lety

      @@GregHogg After shuffling, the only time related data would be within each sample. The shuffling would destroy any time related dependency between samples. This might not be desirable with the LSTM layer? Also, what might be the effect of just using % change on a daily basis, rather than absolute value of the stock. And this is where you get to say “Why don’t you go ttrry it out and let me know what you find”?

    • @AIwithHossein
      @AIwithHossein Před 2 lety

      I've done it before. It depends on future forecasting and some other parameters. There is no clear relationship between past data and the accuracy of results. Generally, you should test different scenarios based on your project and your data.

  • @DawidMichna
    @DawidMichna Před 2 lety

    Great stuff! Why did you set date as an df.index in min ~5, was it necessary/what's a rationale behind it?

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety

      See the other comments haha

  • @fkeb37e9w0
    @fkeb37e9w0 Před 2 lety +2

    Hi Gred, I had a doubt, for an unseen data (which contains only the date), how can I send that data into our LSTM model and predict for the next 5 days, when I have no input data apart from the DATE? Please help.

    • @pixusru
      @pixusru Před 2 lety +1

      Your input for LSTM is not a date, but prices for previous N days before now.

    • @efhndz7990
      @efhndz7990 Před 2 lety

      i have the same question what can i do?
      if i want to know values for next days

  • @bloodio4237
    @bloodio4237 Před rokem

    Hi 👋👋
    I am looking to create a model that predicts token bonding curves. In order to do that, moreover to predict token price, I need to predict the supply.
    The majority of youtube videos are talking about the price. I have some trouble finding tutorials explaining how to predict token supply and which features would be better used.
    Any help, please !!

  • @G5Locks
    @G5Locks Před rokem +1

    Can you implement this in a streamlit interface

  • @prashant8762
    @prashant8762 Před rokem

    Hello Greg, great video again as usual, can advice ,whether can we have a LSTM neural network for predicting stock price of multiple companies say 1000 companies ?

    • @jarrodmautz159
      @jarrodmautz159 Před rokem

      Yes compile each stocks data into a key value pair of a dictionary, the key will hold the stocks name, and the values will hold the data frames that contain the dates and prices/more indicators etc., then turn each into sequence, then train your lstm on each stock in your dictionary

    • @prashant8762
      @prashant8762 Před rokem

      @@jarrodmautz159 thats very impressive explanation , do you have any sample notebook( if you free to share ) on similar use case or any article link ? iam really looking for one sample notebook, thanks for the reply ,it helps :-)

  • @Jipzorowns
    @Jipzorowns Před 3 měsíci

    I don't get the part on 20:25, how is it possible that it gets the beginning of the prediction so right? I just don't see how this is possible, am I missing something?

  • @sandhusukhdeep
    @sandhusukhdeep Před 2 lety

    that is one excellent video to setup a basic LSTM model! great work and thank you

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety

      Awesome! Thank you, and you're very welcome!

  • @JeffPohlmeyer
    @JeffPohlmeyer Před 2 lety +4

    I have a concern. It looks like the predicted vs observed values are offset by a day. In other words, when zoomed in the predicted values do seem close to the observed, but they're delayed by a day. From the perspective of actual trading this is very detrimental.

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety

      Hmm I'll have to check this out.

    • @christeys5942
      @christeys5942 Před 3 měsíci

      I watched another video on neural training and it said that the model is not good for this purpose as it just predicts the last day - or + on the close value that’s why it’s real close. Their reasoning is that if you take the difference each day it can’t predict and the error rate is huge.They suggested that it’s better to use other techniques for this reason.

    • @christeys5942
      @christeys5942 Před 3 měsíci

      For me the jury is still out I would do lots of testing and your own research

  • @sameerulhaq4066
    @sameerulhaq4066 Před měsícem

    how can we check the rmse score?

  • @antoniosaltoborsodicarminati

    You just made my project for bitcoin prediction in college, thanks man

  • @srishtisdesignerstudio8317
    @srishtisdesignerstudio8317 Před 2 měsíci

    very helpful

  • @afseeniqbal
    @afseeniqbal Před 3 měsíci

    hello I am new to this so I was wondering if this exact model would work on say VTSAX stocks and not just microsoft? if I were to just import VTSAX data instead of microsoft data as a csv in the beginning

  • @poojithachalla8106
    @poojithachalla8106 Před rokem

    @Greg Hogg Please provide vedio link for window function

  • @ShuhaoGao
    @ShuhaoGao Před 8 měsíci +1

    What is the value for test_val?

  • @uveuvenouve7680
    @uveuvenouve7680 Před měsícem

    Can someone explain why the prediction is so flat when the train data is big?
    as the video show , it should be using the 3 previous days' price to predict the next day close price.
    that's mean it always predict a dramatic drop of few hundred dollars?
    Is that the cause of LSTM? would it be better to use the price differences to make this model?

  • @ffinalttrip
    @ffinalttrip Před 2 lety

    Amazing work Greg!!👏 Do you know any good community to share and talk about projects like this one? discord or something...🧐

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety

      Thank you!! LinkedIn and Facebook have some very large groups :)

  • @ntepelaletsoela812
    @ntepelaletsoela812 Před rokem

    Danko means thank you🤟🙏

  • @yavuzhancakr6592
    @yavuzhancakr6592 Před 9 měsíci

    sometimes in the big datas my epochs value be nan i mean loss : nan, i haved normalize the data but it didn't change anyting, what should i do ?

  • @SakshiDwivedi-p8e
    @SakshiDwivedi-p8e Před 22 hodinami

    My question is , how will one model fit all stock, every stock will have different behaviour based on news and companies end results, so will it fit all??

  • @skinderspike7564
    @skinderspike7564 Před 5 měsíci

    Error: Window of size 3 is too large for date 1986-03-18 00:00:00
    How to Resolve?

  • @aadarshsingh2247
    @aadarshsingh2247 Před rokem

    I have a doubt asked by my professor "Why are we using only one attribute "close price" when the stock market can depend on volume too????

  • @ismaelbastos4097
    @ismaelbastos4097 Před 2 lety

    Very good video!!! I have a question, when we separate the validation data, because of the the size of the window is three, the first row of the validation tdata will carry out the last 3 values that are in the target of of the three last rows of train data, and the second row will carry two values of the the target of last two rows of train data and so forth. Is this considered a data leakage? I mean, I have the target of train set as inputs of the validation set, is this ok?

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety +1

      I see what you're saying, and thanks for the kind words. I wouldn't really consider this is a leakage. Formally? Maybe. Practically? Not really

    • @ismaelbastos4097
      @ismaelbastos4097 Před 2 lety

      @@GregHogg Thanks for the answer. I really appreciate your job here on CZcams and on LinkedIn. So I have to be careful when choosing the size of the window, right? Because, if I choose a larger window, the amount of data that will "leak" will grow.

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety +1

      @@ismaelbastos4097 you're very welcome! And yeah, I guess I agree with that. I really wouldn't worry too much though, when you're in a company these things will sort themselves out.

  • @SyedMoneeb-Ul-hassanHaris

    My dataset has only Years and the Total. can someone help me on how df_to_window code which comes after the very 1st matplot graph will look like?
    i have tried changing the code but it is very complicated.

  • @pranaliredgaonkar8154
    @pranaliredgaonkar8154 Před 2 lety

    Which mathematical model we you have used for prediction?

  • @eshaangupta8637
    @eshaangupta8637 Před 2 lety

    Great Video

  • @1234567PokemGaming
    @1234567PokemGaming Před 5 měsíci

    Guys, at the end of the video, it should not be a constant value. Just a little mistake. You guys can use my code for reference.
    In the video, the constant trend happened due to the last_window always keep constant.
    # Predict future
    from copy import deepcopy
    recursive_predictions = []
    recursive_dates = np.concatenate([dates_val, dates_test])
    last_window_new = deepcopy(X_train[-1])
    for target_date in recursive_dates:
    next_prediction = model.predict(np.array([last_window_new])).flatten()
    recursive_predictions.append(next_prediction)
    last_window_new[0] = last_window_new[1]
    last_window_new[1] = last_window_new[2]
    last_window_new[-1] = next_prediction
    print(X_train[-2:]) # Print the last 2 elements of X_train
    print(np.array([last_window_new])) # Print the value of np.array([last_window])

  • @dananjayaidabagusgede5144

    i copy your code in description, why my data is error? "window of size 3 is too large" what thats mean? thnks sir i hope you answer soon 🙏

    • @SafwanAlselwi
      @SafwanAlselwi Před rokem

      I got the same error, but I fix it by downgliding the entire max dataset

  • @robottalks7312
    @robottalks7312 Před 2 lety +2

    Will there be any advantage if we scale the closing stock price between 0-1

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety

      You could definitely try that :)

  • @___OmerAJ___
    @___OmerAJ___ Před 7 měsíci

    The problem is with experienced Ai developers they always wanted to predict the future price, but with real traders or investors they all wanted to take a profitable trades, no one wants to exactly know the price and nothing can do that

  • @someotherstuffs
    @someotherstuffs Před 10 měsíci +1

    hi, why did you not include the other columns open, volume, low, high in the training dataset?

  • @user-sy9sq8qi5f
    @user-sy9sq8qi5f Před 11 měsíci

    Thank you

  • @hulunlanteworku9341
    @hulunlanteworku9341 Před rokem

    Awesome video , but how do we know our window size in this video case 3 is there a way to know that. I think it's most crucial while working with LSTM

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před rokem

      You choose

    • @hulunlanteworku9341
      @hulunlanteworku9341 Před rokem

      @@GregHogg Based on what? or by seeing the data visualization to see some pattern that repeats

  • @taruchitgoyal3735
    @taruchitgoyal3735 Před rokem +2

    Hello Sir,
    Thank you for the tutorial.
    I am getting the error when we start using the function: df_to_windowed_df()
    I get error:-
    Error: Window of size 3 is too large for date 1986-03-12 00:00:00
    None
    Thus, need your help to understand about this error and how to resolve it.
    Thank you.

    • @hybriddude007
      @hybriddude007 Před 2 měsíci

      If you want more previous days, then take at least two years worth of data or more, that should work

  • @Wissam-rk7tv
    @Wissam-rk7tv Před rokem

    thank you for the vidéo , it's amazig, how if we wont to forecast stock prices for different company ? can you make a video about this case

  • @rizkamilandgamilenio9806

    amazing video, why does your model on this video perform differently from the actual code.

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před rokem

      Thank you! Probably just randomisation

  • @heylucyhere588
    @heylucyhere588 Před 2 lety

    What type of LSTM it is ? Vanilla , stacked or CNN ?

  • @abhirajranjan1518
    @abhirajranjan1518 Před 4 dny

    Why is that windowed_df function taking so long to run, it isnt stopping...

  • @zabrinasmith5087
    @zabrinasmith5087 Před 2 lety

    I'm trying to replicate this model with another dataset but the code for 'f_to_windowed_df' that was pasted at 6:40 doesn't seem to be working, I have mirrored the code using the linked provided. Any suggestions?

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety

      Sorry, not sure.

    • @21morpha
      @21morpha Před 2 lety

      ```def targets_df(df, n):
      df = df.reset_index()
      names = ['target_date']
      for i in range(1, n+1):
      names.append("target"+str(n-i+1))
      names.append('target')
      new_df=[]
      for i in range(n, len(df)):
      new_df.append([df[df.columns[0]][i]])
      for j in range(0, n+1):
      new_df[i-n].append(df[df.columns[1]][i-(n-j)])
      return pd.DataFrame(new_df, columns=names)```

    • @21morpha
      @21morpha Před 2 lety

      I made this targets_df function because I didn't want to just copy what was done by others. It works, but it considers all of the dates. I believe it is not hard to adapt it for you to select the window by yourself. Maybe you could just slice the close dataframe before applying the function on it. In my case it worked just fine because I got a dataset with as many as 120 rows. Don't know if it would work well on huge datasets, with millions of lines, but I believe it wouldnt, because there is a nested for loop in there.

  • @kind-reminder
    @kind-reminder Před rokem

    whats about predictions in here? you showed us a regression. it doesnt have anything in common with predictions of any kind.

  • @gacctom
    @gacctom Před rokem

    awesome video

  • @kkololp
    @kkololp Před 6 měsíci

    if your data is not linear, you can use the log to make it linear

  • @marcosagustinmel2294
    @marcosagustinmel2294 Před rokem

    Hi Greg,
    Thank you very much for the video! It's excelent!
    I have a doubt regarding the windowed_df function.
    What is the meaning of the if statement about df_subset? I'm talking about this part:
    while True:
    df_subset = dataframe.loc[:target_date].tail(n+1)

    if len(df_subset) != n+1:
    print(f'Error: Window of size {n} is too large for date {target_date}')
    return
    Because I'm getting this error when I pass to the function a period higher that 2 years (+/-) . For example from 2020-12-01 to 2022-12-4 is retrieving me the correct array (with the 3 timesteps), but if I pass 2020-05-01 to 2022-12-4 I'm getting the error "Window of size 3 is too large for date 2020-05-01 00:00:00"
    So how can I solve it ? Why this statement is present? What is trying to avoid?
    Many thanks!
    Regards
    Marcos

  • @eightonecapital6554
    @eightonecapital6554 Před rokem

    BRAND NEW TO CODING. Is there a way to make the chart interactive to see exact predicted prices?

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před rokem +1

      Yes use plotly instead of matplot

  • @fabiobrito8038
    @fabiobrito8038 Před 2 lety

    ValueError: Input 0 of layer "sequential_39" is incompatible with the layer: expected shape=(None, 3, 1), found shape=(32, 0, 1) I got this error I changed the stock in this prediction, But I'm always get that error. I changed the number of windows to 0 once my csv is much smaller.

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před 2 lety +1

      I wouldn't suggest a window of 0.

  • @chaunguyen5378
    @chaunguyen5378 Před 14 dny

    what is the meaning of prediction for every single day, nothing, your prediction give back the value with big standard error

  • @ricgondo
    @ricgondo Před rokem

    Just Thanks!!!!!

    • @GregHogg
      @GregHogg  Před rokem +1

      That's super nice of you, thank you so much!

    • @ricgondo
      @ricgondo Před rokem

      @@GregHoggNot at all! Thank you sir! Jupiter was fine but, now trying to figure out why I can’t run in my Ubuntu terminal lol!

    • @ricgondo
      @ricgondo Před rokem

      OMG, nicely working on a terminal, but I will stick with Jupyter. First time using this thing... so much better!

  • @pufferwockey
    @pufferwockey Před 2 lety

    Hi there, new to the channel, love it so far. Been trying to follow these instructions, but my model always predicts the same number. When I plot model.predict(X_whichever), dates_ whichever, and y_whichever, dates whichever, the y line is what you'd expect but the prediction line is completely horizontal, at what appears to be the mean of y_val. I've been messing with normalization and quadruple checked shapes, but no change so far. Anyone have any thoughts?

    • @pufferwockey
      @pufferwockey Před 2 lety

      I must have bungled something. Threw a batch normalization on the input and that fixed it

    • @britox.6216
      @britox.6216 Před rokem

      @@pufferwockey dealing with that issue now too, prediction line is just horizontal. what exactly did you do to fix this ? I am new to coding, would appreciate a respone

  • @obedrolland3259
    @obedrolland3259 Před 8 měsíci

    There is a huge mistake in your loop which predicts the test & validation closing prices according to the last 3 values of the training data. You should just change the last_window expression by :
    last_window = np.concatenate([last_window[-2:], np.array(next_prediction)])
    And see what you will get.