00:00 Introduction and tools needed for financial valuation 01:00 Exploring Tesla's stock price and market cap 10:42 Separating actual and expected 11:38 Forecasting methods and balance sheet 12:59 Starting annual forecasting 16:00 Revenue growth and gross margin 19:19 Tesla investor relations site 21:27 Calculating gross margin 25:05 Forecasting interest income and tax rate assumptions 26:28 Exploring different growth scenarios and stock valuation 27:31 Considering maturity rates and discount rates 29:57 Analyzing revenue, cost of goods, and gross margin 31:53 Discounting net income and cash flow 36:20 Exploring the impact of asp and forecast units on revenue growth 37:02 Analyzing the potential impact on Tesla stock value 38:09 Discussing the launch of Model 3 and the gigafactory 40:31 Reviewing the press release and researching further topics 41:29 Encountering technical difficulties with accessing delivery numbers 42:00 Exploring global and US auto production and deliveries 44:00 Analyzing the balance sheet and net cash position 45:05 Calculating days sales of outstanding and discussing its significance 46:00 Continuing the analysis of the balance sheet and liabilities 51:10 Explaining the difference between cash flow and net income 01:03:00 Stock Price and Discount Rate Considerations
TSLA produced 1.85M cars in 2023 last year very interesting to hear your past theoretical views and how it stacks to today. Will help me think about forecasting in the future!
Inflation directly affects people's level of living, it has an impact on them far more immediately than a stock or real estate market catastrophe would. It is not unexpected that market sentiment is currently so pessimistic. We desperately need help if we're going to survive in this economy. Just like the housing market, the market for ETFs and stocks is still erratic. My $370K portfolio has been left in tatters.
You will need a strong FA to help you through the current market turmoil. I've been talking to an advisor for a while now, mostly because I lack the knowledge and energy to deal with these ongoing market conditions. I made more than $220K during this slump, demonstrating that there are more aspects of the market than the average individual is aware of. Having a Financial consultant is now the best line of action, especially for those who are close to retiring.
My Financial Consultant is SALVATORE FORTUNATO SOFIA. I found her on a Kiyosaki interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterwards. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can run a quick online search with her name if you care for supervision. I basically follow her market moves and haven’t regretted doing so.
He is clearly very smart and has a lot of propensity for tedious tasks which allows him to excel (no pun intended) in a field that requires that. However, it is interesting how at 16:54 he typos the “services and other” amount into the Q3 14 column of the spreadsheet. Which is a mark against this type of manual data entry.
My understanding is that Tesla’s value comes from data, not the vehicles themselves. They have cameras on every angle. They are mapping all cities and streets. The data already is invaluable and will be even more so as more and more companies try to do the self driving thing.
Thank you martin for making these videos. I've been watching since the second financial lesson video that came out years ago. It is all extremely helpful and insightful.
I wish I had the drive Martin does, I was watching him before the legal issues. I feel like I could do some of the things he does, but I have zero motivation :/ working 10 hours a day, shit sucks.
Hey Martin, would you be down for an interview on the intersection between crypto and phrama? I have some skepticisms about how feasible the process is. Theres a particular situation that's going on that i think you'd be curious about hearing if i explained it to you.
Just watched your Tucker interview and wanted to say what a likeable funny guy you are. You are only a criminal if you get caught and I hope more people learn from your wisdom and style it's a rarity.
Putting hedge fund back room/research stuff out there is very interesting. Just seeing this guy work is pretty impressive. This dude is now up my, “interesting or impressive person of the week,” (I just made that up, someone I wind up watching some videos on. The speed he does Excel is very impressive. I had a GF who typed on, Excel fast as well, nothing close to what he’s doing. It’s interesting/impressive to see someone to know you could even use it like that. I thought you just kind of click around and input the the numbers. It’s actually. it’s learning an entirely different languages as far as typing ability. Typing at the speed, you type words to input all those numbers, while tabbing through the grid, It’s pretty crazy.
@Martin Shkreli what if when your looking at the liability side and you dont see debt on the BS all I see if Payables and accrued expenses, is there anywhere in the 10 q where I can see debt im looking at dr Horton a home builder company
Thank you Martin, your video is very helpful and informative. But I have a few questions regarding your calculation. (1) Why multiply cash on balance sheet by ROIC of 1%? I thought companies hold their cash in treasury note or cash-equivalent form(as noted on the balance sheet), so they are already earning interests. Secondly, in 2015, when the video was made, the yield on 1 month to 1 year treasury bond was 0.01% to 0.25%, so how did you decide the cash yield would be 1%? (2) I think the formula for Accounts Receivable Days is (Accounts Receivable / Revenue) x 365, instead of x90, which is what you showed. Please let me know, would appreciate your insight
How about an excel shortcut tutorial first to learn commonly used shortcuts in the video? Cos trying to follow the video using my mouse is pretty Shit.😊
Damn, for someone with a pretty dark history you damn impressive. I’m currently learning these too. But I still don’t get why you acted that way in the past. Is there a video of explanation for it? I don’t mean to recall it but I want to understand the story better. Social media is too one-sided. Thanks
Martin bought the patent for a drug that wasn't often in use both the general population and hospitals, elevated the price from $13,50 to $750 - 'forcing' big companies to pay $750 for it, the companies paid for media pieces about him to paint him as a villain for making them pay more than a mere $13,50 for it. The medication is given for free for people in need who cannot afford it. Martin basically made big pharma mad for making money off of them and they manoeuvred the masses to ruin his life as much as they possibly could through the media.
@@icd.f44.9there is no such thing as subsidized medicine in the United States of America, it is still not a communist state or a socialist form of an authoritarian state which can control even the big guys, when the bill from the hospital is footed, the medical insurance company takes care of it and decides if it wants to approve to cover the costs or not, I bet you don't even live in the US but if you step foot on there and happens to contract HIV, because of this guy, you are fcked.
@@icd.f44.9Medicare and medicaid are state enterprises which focus on providing access to medicine to low income households, but they are insurance government companies, there is no direct subsidized medical services which the government of the United States covers in full direct, they are just government insurance companies, not a governmental regulatory body
@@icd.f44.9all his assets were seized and didn't even pinch an eye on preserving some of his wealth, now he is back home living with his parents, why are you looking up on him?
Yo man If you ever want to come to Colorado to do a talk on wealth and stocks and whatnot let's go!!! I want to do more longform talks on my channel and you would be fun to talk to. haha. Hope all is well.
TA works, and Tesla was the perfect ironic example of it lol. To me Technical analysis is simply a data language, where you process the probability of something happening, making a bet, and making money by profiting $3 minimum, per $1 risked. If you make 10 trades and 7 of them are wrong and hit your stop loss, you’d still be profitable off the 3 trades that you won
Узнал про тебя благодаря Такеру Карлсону так как его смотрю, ты очень интересная личность. Кстати я думаю у тебя был бы большой потенциал если бы ты поехал открывать инвестиционный фонд в СНГ так как в наших странах сейчас наблюдается большой рост и интерес к инвестициям
dude you are a fucking genius, best content on youtube and so fucking raw. What are the most undervalue stocks you think there is in 2023? we the poor need that
Investing isn’t for poor people. If you are poor stop being poor. Learn how to incorporate and get a huge line of credit first. Learn to collateralize and borrow against assets so that you can use that credit to buy the asset and use the asset to pay off the credit line and repeat. There are a dozen ways to do this but you have to learn a lot of details, how to make and manage risks how to increase return on risk and how to raise capital. Learn every investment vehicle and how to navigate the legal landscape so you can use the right vehicles that can qualify for the credit. If you can’t get a 250k line of credit figure out how to do that first. The capitalistic system won’t give you that level of credit if you don’t figure out how to do enough of the right things to have a fighting chance first. And expecting someone to tell you what to invest in thus being dependent on others is never going to be the right mentality.
Не стоит говорить за всю Россию от своего имени, бесполезное ты существо. Такому мусору, как Шкрели и тем, кто его почитает, таким как ты, нет места в РФ. Ваше место 180х210 см.
The quality of 'The shkreli pill' CZcams channel has gone down big in the past two months. This one's fine. The zoom in "we do all things in millions" lol 😅
This is why i just trade crypto is better for us small guys , unless you like risky options i literally have been doing fucking meme coins and out perform my stock performance for luke ten years
hey mom, new Shkreli just dropped
hey mom, just bought a house
shut up
for reference: TSLA 81 billion in total revenue in 2022 and 12.5 Billion in Net income.
These old shkreli classes were actually quite good and made me a fuckton of money
00:00 Introduction and tools needed for financial valuation
01:00 Exploring Tesla's stock price and market cap
10:42 Separating actual and expected
11:38 Forecasting methods and balance sheet
12:59 Starting annual forecasting
16:00 Revenue growth and gross margin
19:19 Tesla investor relations site
21:27 Calculating gross margin
25:05 Forecasting interest income and tax rate assumptions
26:28 Exploring different growth scenarios and stock valuation
27:31 Considering maturity rates and discount rates
29:57 Analyzing revenue, cost of goods, and gross margin
31:53 Discounting net income and cash flow
36:20 Exploring the impact of asp and forecast units on revenue growth
37:02 Analyzing the potential impact on Tesla stock value
38:09 Discussing the launch of Model 3 and the gigafactory
40:31 Reviewing the press release and researching further topics
41:29 Encountering technical difficulties with accessing delivery numbers
42:00 Exploring global and US auto production and deliveries
44:00 Analyzing the balance sheet and net cash position
45:05 Calculating days sales of outstanding and discussing its significance
46:00 Continuing the analysis of the balance sheet and liabilities
51:10 Explaining the difference between cash flow and net income
01:03:00 Stock Price and Discount Rate Considerations
Gotta say...there is more to this guy that meets the eye. So glad that i saw tucker interview.
$TSLA is up 2,500% since this video
21x
176 👇⬇️👎📉⏬🙃
TSLA produced 1.85M cars in 2023 last year very interesting to hear your past theoretical views and how it stacks to today. Will help me think about forecasting in the future!
I can't wait to watch this later. Love to compare how you look at things to how I do.
Why are all the NVDA videos deleted?? You called it right before it the pump and is up like 15x since
You should do an investing series
Inflation directly affects people's level of living, it has an impact on them far more immediately than a stock or real estate market catastrophe would. It is not unexpected that market sentiment is currently so pessimistic. We desperately need help if we're going to survive in this economy. Just like the housing market, the market for ETFs and stocks is still erratic. My $370K portfolio has been left in tatters.
I know many people who made millions from the Dotcom crash and the 2008 crash, so I've been looking at analogous chances in the present market.
You will need a strong FA to help you through the current market turmoil. I've been talking to an advisor for a while now, mostly because I lack the knowledge and energy to deal with these ongoing market conditions. I made more than $220K during this slump, demonstrating that there are more aspects of the market than the average individual is aware of. Having a Financial consultant is now the best line of action, especially for those who are close to retiring.
@@hannahdonald9071 Mind sharing the info of this consultant?
My Financial Consultant is SALVATORE FORTUNATO SOFIA. I found her on a Kiyosaki interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterwards. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can run a quick online search with her name if you care for supervision. I basically follow her market moves and haven’t regretted doing so.
He is clearly very smart and has a lot of propensity for tedious tasks which allows him to excel (no pun intended) in a field that requires that. However, it is interesting how at 16:54 he typos the “services and other” amount into the Q3 14 column of the spreadsheet. Which is a mark against this type of manual data entry.
Already proficient in programming but still can learn something from you, great
My understanding is that Tesla’s value comes from data, not the vehicles themselves.
They have cameras on every angle. They are mapping all cities and streets. The data already is invaluable and will be even more so as more and more companies try to do the self driving thing.
Bro excel mechanics r crazy
Can’t be working in hedge funds with shitty excel skills
I appreciate the hell out of you Martin!
Thank you martin for making these videos. I've been watching since the second financial lesson video that came out years ago. It is all extremely helpful and insightful.
PHARMA BRO IS BACK LETS GO
good to see you back here g, any chance you can do a lbo model 🤤
I wish I had the drive Martin does, I was watching him before the legal issues. I feel like I could do some of the things he does, but I have zero motivation :/ working 10 hours a day, shit sucks.
Are you saying you work 10 hours a day at a bad job and then don’t have energy to work on your learning after that work?
once a wagecuck always a wagecuck, you won't escape the whirlpool bc its designed to suck you in and keep you down. go flip my burger brokie
@@garnalengarneringnot that hard to find info thy you clearly work a wage job bud..
@@garnalengarnering Sure, I'll deliver a burger to you. What's the address to your mom's basement again?
Hey Martin, would you be down for an interview on the intersection between crypto and phrama?
I have some skepticisms about how feasible the process is.
Theres a particular situation that's going on that i think you'd be curious about hearing if i explained it to you.
sad that all the best of shkreli videos have been deleted ! i miss them, always hilarious
there's an archive page up with all of the content on it
@@nn-taleb can u give link?
@@nn-taleb can you please give a link to those videos ?
@@nn-taleb can you please give link
Just watched your Tucker interview and wanted to say what a likeable funny guy you are. You are only a criminal if you get caught and I hope more people learn from your wisdom and style it's a rarity.
Man I want you doing more of this content, it's the stuff you never see anyone do! It's VALUABLE
any part 2 or series to watch?
Saw you on tucker talk about intranasal ketamine. Any opinion on Seelos ticker seel?
Putting hedge fund back room/research stuff out there is very interesting. Just seeing this guy work is pretty impressive.
This dude is now up my, “interesting or impressive person of the week,” (I just made that up, someone I wind up watching some videos on.
The speed he does
Excel is very impressive.
I had a GF who typed on, Excel fast as well, nothing close to what he’s doing.
It’s interesting/impressive to see someone to know you could even use it like that.
I thought you just kind of click around and input the the numbers.
It’s actually. it’s learning an entirely different languages as far as typing ability.
Typing at the speed, you type words to input all those numbers, while tabbing through the grid, It’s pretty crazy.
Great video man, would be awesome if you put more content like this out there.
He's a fraud. Mike Stathis has exposed Shrekeli in that past. czcams.com/video/tgAOtgbYqoc/video.html
@@BP-vr3rt Libtard detected
I started following you after realizing how much of a hip hop fan you are. I'm looking forward to learning how to invest from you! Peace bro.
Just make drugs expensive and get caught and your on the right track to being a loser with alot of money
Follow him if you want to be a weasel.
@@presenceunknown3086 You sound jealous
@@JP-wx6uh And write a comment if you are the biggest loser
@@swannsilver4773 jealous of what there's nothing there
What is the Ackman thing he keeps referencing?
it's his Big Think video: czcams.com/video/WEDIj9JBTC8/video.html
These courses helped me with life. Thanks shkrelli
@Martin Shkreli what if when your looking at the liability side and you dont see debt on the BS all I see if Payables and accrued expenses, is there anywhere in the 10 q where I can see debt im looking at dr Horton a home builder company
best finance video on the 'net, imo
Martin helped many young bucks get rich & not waste their time and money.
we are so back boys
Now I know why the cavalcade of short-sellers on CNBC got screwed
Thanks for the information Martin :)
haha this brings me back to my college years
Thank you Martin, your video is very helpful and informative. But I have a few questions regarding your calculation.
(1) Why multiply cash on balance sheet by ROIC of 1%? I thought companies hold their cash in treasury note or cash-equivalent form(as noted on the balance sheet), so they are already earning interests. Secondly, in 2015, when the video was made, the yield on 1 month to 1 year treasury bond was 0.01% to 0.25%, so how did you decide the cash yield would be 1%?
(2) I think the formula for Accounts Receivable Days is (Accounts Receivable / Revenue) x 365, instead of x90, which is what you showed.
Please let me know, would appreciate your insight
Notice he doesn't answer your question with an explanation. He's clearly not an academic.
I like that you always do something out of whatever situation you put yourself in
First minute, gold already
Now this is a quality content
How about an excel shortcut tutorial first to learn commonly used shortcuts in the video? Cos trying to follow the video using my mouse is pretty Shit.😊
F2 opens the editor for the current cell
CTRL + an arrow key moves the current selection
@@_d0ser appreciate it, man. cheers!
how about use google
@@iphgfqweio nigga has CocaineCrypto in his name, what do you expect
@@iphgfqweio oh, i see the helpful nerd has arrived.
thank you for sharing Martin! 🙏
Damn, for someone with a pretty dark history you damn impressive. I’m currently learning these too. But I still don’t get why you acted that way in the past. Is there a video of explanation for it? I don’t mean to recall it but I want to understand the story better. Social media is too one-sided. Thanks
Martin bought the patent for a drug that wasn't often in use both the general population and hospitals, elevated the price from $13,50 to $750 - 'forcing' big companies to pay $750 for it, the companies paid for media pieces about him to paint him as a villain for making them pay more than a mere $13,50 for it. The medication is given for free for people in need who cannot afford it. Martin basically made big pharma mad for making money off of them and they manoeuvred the masses to ruin his life as much as they possibly could through the media.
@@icd.f44.9the price would increase dramatically to those who don't have insurance
@@icd.f44.9there is no such thing as subsidized medicine in the United States of America, it is still not a communist state or a socialist form of an authoritarian state which can control even the big guys, when the bill from the hospital is footed, the medical insurance company takes care of it and decides if it wants to approve to cover the costs or not, I bet you don't even live in the US but if you step foot on there and happens to contract HIV, because of this guy, you are fcked.
@@icd.f44.9Medicare and medicaid are state enterprises which focus on providing access to medicine to low income households, but they are insurance government companies, there is no direct subsidized medical services which the government of the United States covers in full direct, they are just government insurance companies, not a governmental regulatory body
@@icd.f44.9all his assets were seized and didn't even pinch an eye on preserving some of his wealth, now he is back home living with his parents, why are you looking up on him?
Is there like a first principles on financial modeling?
Thank you G
So did you buy it
since when was tesla's stock worth 208 in 2015? am I missing something?
Stock splits
Oct 27
I will keep watching you you are anyhow too far that you ever become reality in my life
Yo man If you ever want to come to Colorado to do a talk on wealth and stocks and whatnot let's go!!! I want to do more longform talks on my channel and you would be fun to talk to. haha. Hope all is well.
Now we’re talkin
I thought I was good at using a spreadsheet...but this dude's finger's must be moving at light speed. Sheesh.
Please do an analysis of BetterUp.
Thanks for teaching retail the real business of investing. A true public service.
PFE or MRK?
cool video learned a lot, but did he invest or not ?
Great video Martin
Step 1: learn excel
What do you think of NLST? Tia
Garbage stock
I DAMANDEO NEW CONTENTO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gd afternoon Martin, and thank you for this ❤
Good to see you're still at it. Subbed.
Best video
TA works, and Tesla was the perfect ironic example of it lol.
To me Technical analysis is simply a data language, where you process the probability of something happening, making a bet, and making money by profiting $3 minimum, per $1 risked.
If you make 10 trades and 7 of them are wrong and hit your stop loss, you’d still be profitable off the 3 trades that you won
Do the word a favor, we all want you to
Gold
Sorry to hear about your upheld ban.
you long or short @ PE = 80x?
and 10x Revenue when interest rates going to 7% and every tom dick and harry are releasing electric cars to compete
History was made 🎉o😊
remember Martian WE BUTTER YOUR BREAD
Hello bcubers 🙋♂️🙋♂️🙋♂️🙋♂️
உள்ளேன் ஐயா 😊😊😊
Hey Martin what are you up to? I hope you are doing well man.
Will Fannie May and Freddy Mac stock ever recover......
Узнал про тебя благодаря Такеру Карлсону так как его смотрю, ты очень интересная личность. Кстати я думаю у тебя был бы большой потенциал если бы ты поехал открывать инвестиционный фонд в СНГ так как в наших странах сейчас наблюдается большой рост и интерес к инвестициям
Here for the comments
why watch Damodaran when I can watch Martin Shkreli
May I come and listen to your house and listen to your Wu-Tang unreleased album. Please
maybe you can do a small study about your self where you check your forecasts and compare them with the actual data and then check your accuracy
5:19 not bad info here
Very helpful
Thoughts on Gme
I thought the first one was pepsi.
Just came in to say my Salaams from East Africa. Cheers!
Lol now tesla is worth 2 trillion
@hiUpeople723 This video was recorded in 2015
@@austinoptimize3338 and?
4:23 how does the goat do this without the = in excel?
u can start it with a +
@@sfolifeor minus
dude you are a fucking genius, best content on youtube and so fucking raw. What are the most undervalue stocks you think there is in 2023? we the poor need that
you'll never be a cappie wagecuck, keep flipping those burgers for us
Investing isn’t for poor people.
If you are poor stop being poor.
Learn how to incorporate and get a huge line of credit first.
Learn to collateralize and borrow against assets so that you can use that credit to buy the asset and use the asset to pay off the credit line and repeat.
There are a dozen ways to do this but you have to learn a lot of details, how to make and manage risks how to increase return on risk and how to raise capital. Learn every investment vehicle and how to navigate the legal landscape so you can use the right vehicles that can qualify for the credit. If you can’t get a 250k line of credit figure out how to do that first. The capitalistic system won’t give you that level of credit if you don’t figure out how to do enough of the right things to have a fighting chance first.
And expecting someone to tell you what to invest in thus being dependent on others is never going to be the right mentality.
@@garnalengarneringProject and cope harder.
PYPL
@@garnalengarnering keep living on the web for us :D
I am not a cat person and I am not keen if Bill Gates.
No one uees accouting net income to as cash flow to find a npv.
yea dont ppl use fcf, at least thats what ive done
lots of valuable info to absorb
Hi, Shkreli. I really appreciate investing tutorials like these. Thx for making them.
You should play league of legends with me
YOLO
Мартин, ты красавчик! Уважаем таких смелых ребят в России. Будь удачлив.
Не стоит говорить за всю Россию от своего имени, бесполезное ты существо. Такому мусору, как Шкрели и тем, кто его почитает, таким как ты, нет места в РФ. Ваше место 180х210 см.
This dudes in jail till 2030 right?
dude he got released
no hes out lol
He should be. But no, he isn't. Corporate scum rarely serve a reasonably fair prison sentence.
The quality of 'The shkreli pill' CZcams channel has gone down big in the past two months. This one's fine.
The zoom in "we do all things in millions" lol 😅
why is the using 2015 numbers...It's even more confusing because share price is the same now in 2023 haha
perhaps because he didn't (and to my knowledge, still doesn't!) have a time machine?
monkey IQ
The share price split a few times, the true value of the stock is much higher. If you bought TSLA back then you would have made like 1,300%
.......................................
Trust in the Lord Jesus Christ and He will give you eternal life
🐑🐑🐑
This is why i just trade crypto is better for us small guys , unless you like risky options i literally have been doing fucking meme coins and out perform my stock performance for luke ten years