Jeremy Grantham's Super Bubble
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- čas přidán 24. 07. 2024
- A very well know and well-respected investor Jeremy Grantham has said that there is not just a bubble in the US at the moment but there is actually a superbubble and it’s going to burst.
Grantham has previously called two other massive bubbles, The Internet Bubble in 2000/2001 and the US Housing Bubble in 2006/20007, so when Grantham says we’re in a superbubble people tend to sit up and listen.
In this video, I look at what he means by a superbubble and discuss the evidence that supports this. I also go on to discuss what this could mean for your portfolio and what types of investments Grantham suggests.
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:22 Who is Jeremy Grantham?
01:13 Superbubble & Valuation
05:48 Craziness
07:04 House Prices
10:22 Bonds
11:00 Commodities
12:32 Portfolio Impact
DISCLAIMER
All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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Which value fund does vanguard offer in the uk?
Man you are the coolest and calmest, least flappable investor youtuber, with zero click bait titles, and when you post a vid like this I think its time to pay attention!
Investment over here, is frustrating😭
@@ericalorraine7943 I'll suggest you reach out to Christine Lynn Saitta
Time in the market usually beats timing the market. Unless you have privileged information or are a member of US congress
Excellent Ramin - as always! Thank you!
These guys appear on tv every qtr, and says market will crash, since like 2017. So they said it multiple times already... of course you will be right that one time. He probably "predicted" previous crashes in same matter, kept saying it for years. its like drawing 50 lines on a chart, price hits one, and you say- told you so, im a price guru.
It feels like we are marching towards the cliff.
Just protect yourself from the financial situation by paying attention.
Beware of this .
Yep. He's predicted 28 of the last 3 crashed!
It's not easy to time the market. What he is saying is very true, it may take a while
The P/E ratio for the SP 500 is currently 24.4, so only one standard deviation, it's dropped from 37 in the space of a year with only a 10% drop in the market. You always have to be careful of warnings from fund managers about bubbles, they have an incentive to convince you that one is coming and that they know how to navigate it.
What you say is very true, but it would be remiss of Grantham not to warn investors if he thought that we had crossed a threshold into genuinely dangerous territory. If we continue to see declines in markets over the year his clients/investors would criticise him for not warning them.
This.....The market could simply stay flat for the rest of the year at this price level and the SP 500 P/E ratio would fall from slightly expensive to slightly cheap. Those are not characteristics of a "super bubble". More like characteristics of normal correction that has reset things
I saw one Grantham video where he said he lost a large percentage of his clients for calling the dotcom bubble really early (97). However after it crashed in 2000/01, his client base grew 8x. Not a bad long term strategy of his to grow the client base IF you can continue to call the bubbles.
@@ChrisPearsonTX If you followed his advice in ‘97 how much did you not make over the next 3 years?
@@RustyCas999 RIGHT THIS
My favourite financial CZcamsr.
wow thanks
Fantastic video! Value in EM! Yep I agree.
Although you expose yourself to the VIE structure if you choose to invest in specific equity over an index / fund.
Going back to one of your earlier videos on the VIE structure I think the risk exists but is over blown.. if China bans VIEs they will in effect have to take out some of their own state owned companies which are US listed and in the top 10 by market cap.
With hindsight in a year from now, this may be the most useful finance video you've ever watched.
Or not.
Or the most harmful. Grantham predicted net negative sp500 returns going forward 7 years ago. Guess what happened over the last 7 years?
Very informative, I enjoyed this very much.
This is my first time seeing your channel and this was a great video!
Thank you so much!
Thank you Ramin. For this video, but also for all your work (including the new podcast) and the effort you put in it. One can really feel your continued passion for this topic.
With your help (basically with all your content and our powerhours) i have been able to build a portfolio that makes it a pleasure to watch and manage (not only) in times like this.
The tilting part of my portfolio (dm&em small value) as well as the diversified commodities basket turn out to be quite beneficial right now. I furthermore really like my (probably controversial) TLT (that i'm just happy to feed with cash whenever it seems to need my attention). All added right in time.
But it's not only for the additional profits i get from my positions, i appreciate the deeper understanding i've been able to get here.
My groundwork had been all the books i've read, podcasts i've heard, videos i've watched and webinars i've attended. Oh, and probably the tiktoks i've ignored.
But sometimes in life you just have to meet the right people at the right time. For me, you're definitely one of them.
I've seen the interview with Jeremy Grantham before. Valuable to see your thoughts on it now.
One could probably say it's beneficial for long-term investors to just ignore the markets up and downs, but i find all this too interesting to ignore it. Probably i'm not the only one.
Good to have a mentor that's keeping up with markets while still steering without hustle and bustle.
Many happy returns for the whole community and see you latest in our next powerhour.
If I were to move to value from growth (VUSA), which Vanguard UK funds are classed as value?
Dude, you are spot on.
Kudos.
PS
Nice graphs, btw
Thanks
Thanks. You did an excellent job clarifying his points.
Glad it was helpful!
Great video Ramin.. Thank you :)
Glad you enjoyed it
Don't forget Keynes, they can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. If we are in a 'super bubble', don't underestimate how much further it can go....
End of last May. I picked EXTR, LMB and MOD. LMB peaked 100%\\EXTR peaked 47%\\ MOD over 400% - before rolling over. I just got into , AZEK, PPC, TRIP For this year. Also got GCT at $22.x now over $40+. Rock on. Stops in. Go. Stops in place
Big thanks you
Do you have a best graphs. Thank you for sharing.
So equity valuations look reasonable adjusted to bond yields. But if bonds are in a bubble, bond yields are ridiculously low, aren’t you then using a ridiculous measure to decide equities are reasonably valued?
Thank you! 🙏🏾
You are so welcome
Great video, thanks!
Glad you liked it!
Thanks a lot!
No problem
Hello Ramin. Another great presentation. Would you suggest that the UK might follow a similar path as the US. Good data is hard to come by but is there a correlation between UK stock markets and UK house prices in a crash
Great question.
Great video analysis of Jeremy items.
Glad you enjoyed it
Dear Sir, I am one of your several viewers and a big fan of your honest videos. I just have a quick question- is the VTWAX (which tracks the global FTSE), a good example for the world market index which seems to have a lower P/E than the US?
Hi @Srikrishnan Natarajan if you look here etfdb.com/etf/VT/#etf-ticker-profile at the bottom of the page there are some alternative funds that are similar "Alternative ETFs in the FactSet Equity: Global - Total Market Segment". Alternatively if you have access to US ETFs you could split your holdings into a US and non-US fund (but not if you're in the UK!). Thanks, Ramin.
@@Pensioncraft thank you very much sir
Best channel! Well done
Thanks so much
I wonder if market valuations factoring in bond yields is a bit of red herring? In which case the markets are indeed way over-bought?
Thanks for posting this very informative video - I also listened to your most recent episode on your podcast and liked it very much - only just seen that you have courses on your site too👍🏾 Please keep up this fantastic content 🙌🏽
Glad it was helpful!
Thanks
No problem
So a 50% drop in SNP is bac to mean price... chance seems pretty slim, considering theres so much cash in the world right now. before it gets to -35% ppl would be flocking in for the cheap stocks.
Hi @E Dan I agree that's why I think a -30% fall relative to the peak at the beginning of this year, which would bring us to the 60-year average forward P/E of 15x would be as far as I'd expect the S&P 500 to go. But that's just a guess of course! Thanks, Ramin.
Do we have a list of all the bubbles he has incorrectly called as well? That would be pertinent information too.
some day , all bubble burst calling guys are right. For US - i think there is a clear valuation gap in growth, non-profitable growth and old-economy value stocks. It would be useful to know that the CAPE Schiller index for only the value index is…
Excellent job! Thanks for the video. I love watching Jeremy Grantham's interviews, and you just added a whole new level of analysis to them. Thanks again.
Glad you enjoyed it!
You forgot interest rates as a major driver of housing prices. When real estate agents sell houses, the single-most main point is the combined monthly mortgate/tax/etc rate. This is driven almost entirely by interest rates, which are now near a historic low of -20% (yes that's NEGATIVE 20%) given inflation rates. This means you can mortgage a house, and in just a couple years the mortgage will be trivial due to inflation as long as you get a fixed rate.
Not showing the Excess CAPE Yield this time?
You are best
Thanks
Interesting and thought provoking. However, when checking the performance of GMO it's not so great. Perhaps Grantham excells at the safety end of the scale.
If he is right about super bubble. He will come out laughing once he is proven right.
@@sandro5535 in 10 years time if it ever pops
Thank you. Really interesting and clearly explained. As always!
Glad you liked it!
Hey rami regarding broad market etfs it is wise to buy the ones domiciled in irland because of tax advantages?, usually they ar listed in LSE in both BP and USD.
The thing I don't understand though is that we're clearly in the midst of a technology revolution. Global tech firms that prop up the S&P have exploded since the birth of the mobile internet. Is this the same as any time there's been a bubble or is this a movement to a new standard. I think a lot of personal investors think so which is why they keep on buying regardless of the risks
What risks exactly?
@@wolfiestreet6899 the fact that all signs point down
@@TheWeaselsApprentice Are you reading the financial tealeaves again? Not an argument quite frankly.
The facts are that all macro economic and financial fundamental meaaures are up.
@@wolfiestreet6899 Depends on your time scale...I am completely invested in Big tech indexes... Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, all huge tech names and are only growing... NASDAQ and SP 500 all day long
@@timetraveller3063 Exactly. 'Risks' are when people are piling money into speculative unprofitable companies. But the big tech are the opposite to that. I don't believe their empire is going away soon. A 'superbubble' suggests a 'pop' but it would more likely be eased and deflated over time as the Fed have made it clear they will do whatever it takes.
Very good content.
I knew that Grantham was talking about standard deviation. but he does not explain it that way. This was great!
Glad you enjoyed it
FTSE 100 yeilds 3.7% and is about the same level it was 20 years ago. This looks more like a bond than equities? Plus it is resource heavy rather than tech heavy.
Thx, very good explaination!
Glad it was helpful!
there's a book that explains how you cannot use sigma events to predict market volatility/crashes. It talks about how a 3sigma event should happen once every 125-14000 years, and it happens more than that, therefore, the market behaves in an irregular way among other things
I'm surprised to see Australian, Canadian, and especially Russian equities are overpriced according to CAPE. What do people make of this?
That CAPE is not useful.
Almost all Australia commodities companies are over earning from Iron ore coal & Coking coal lithium with margins making them look like software companies with a monopoly position(we are also the largest exporter of these commodities).
The ASX doesn’t believe these margins can hold leaving these companies on low p/e.I think the ASX is about 50% above it’s average of 14 p/e but make it tricky with the margin expansion but still a buy for long term holders with dividends above 4% much lower debt than US companies & the only market that has outperformed the US market over the last 100 years.
We're in a super bubble but I don't think it's all going to pop and crash soon.
Did he spot 2008 or anything since then? Or is predicting bubbles every few years?
More like every quarter. Also keep’s saying Value will start outperforming growth this year every year.
In 2007 everyone was saying he’s like a broken clock calling a bubble so as the stock market tanks everyone panics then in march 2009 at the very low he says it time to start buying when the people who were saying he was wrong 2 years earlier were panic selling same for 2000 crash & 1989 Japanese crash.He first ever paper published was 1982 after the damage done by a decade of high inflation then the double recession he wrote we will enter a decade of very high returns which ended up being around 18% for the 18 years so not the perma bear he just zigs when the heard zags
I can't figure out the yield (ECY) argument as a counter to the superbubble argument. I often hear stock valuations would be still ok compared bonds, or alternatively, comparing stock roi to adj. yields. But isn't the whole point of a superbubble that BOTH are overvalued, stocks and bonds, mostly due to excess liquidity created the past two years? Then ECY becomes absolutely meaningless in the current situation. It's like arguing that global warming isn't a problem because France is heating up faster than the UK, so the UK is still comparatively cold. While in fact the whole thing is constantly heating up, which is the actual problem of interest.
Hi @Tim Bruns if you're valuing equity the argument is that you have to take all information into account i.e. is equity overvalued given that yields are low etc. If you look at money supply and equity returns the historic relationship is very weak. But looking at several valuation measures is usually a good idea otherwise you can end up choosing measures that confirm your own opinion. No valuation measure is perfect. Thanks, Ramin.
@@Pensioncraft That is true, thank you for your answer. Concerning the historical correlation however, I find it difficult to explain the enormous bull-run in equities way above pre-pandemic levels without looking at how central banks worldwide started what I would call the biggest money printing program in recent history during the pandemic. And also, by using the term "liquidity" I meant monetary policy as a whole. A Fed creating liquidity by buying up bonds and treasuries drives up equity and bond prices at the same time. So I am quite curious to see how their tightening policies will affect the markets.
GMO is one of the best funds there is. Not that they are always right, but they often tend to be.
Thanks for the video. Also for the podcast, I enjoyed every episode so far.
There’s no bubble. There’s simply a new normal for the markets, created by the fed printer. This is how inflation works, and why we invest in equities (to hedge).
That's what they said in 87 and 2000! 😂
This is possibly l a bubble and inflation both. Inflation alone should push up both stock prices And company incomes in nominal terms since both are measured in devalued dollars. But price to earnings have also gone up which looks like a bubble to me. Only way to know for sure it's a bubble is after it pops, but unless this time is different and PE ratios don't revert to the mean then it looks like a bubble.
Grantham also called the Japanese bubble.
I believe at 2:26 when @PensionCraft say "How much investors are willing to pay for every dollar of profit generated over the previous decade" you are wrong. Instead this should read "How much investors are willing to pay for every dollar of profit generated over an year on average, in the previous decade".
Jeremy Grantham screams there is a bubble every year
The problem I have with assumptions that excess CAPE yield suggests the US market isn't expensive is that we haven't seen markets in other countries diverging as much from their historic trend lines.
No returns in a decade. Okay, I'm fine with that as I'm in dividend stocks that pay me monthly. As long as my monthly expenses are being met and I get to reinvest in cheaper equities for a decade I should more than double my monthly income.
If Jeremy G is correct, what will happen to the average-in index fund investors in the U.S.? I.e. if the U.S. markets experience the 20+ years of downturn just like those in Japan, what would the buy-the-dip finfluencers do in their TikTok videos?
They will become sell-the-rip finfluencers. There is no adherence to a theoretical framework or even a morak framework on thus business. While TikTokers seem an extreme manifestation of the phenomenon, entire active investing ecosystems is some form of this. Bloomberg recignized that the best way to make money from all the mountain of financial analysis they do is to sell it..not trade on it. Ramin avoids stock picking for much the same reason, markets are tremedously difficult to beat, and near impossible to time. Thr more analysis and meta analysis you do on price action and fundamentals, the more likely you are going to pick noise in price movements. Even sincere astute analysts working with inputs from firm insiders fail to give good stock price forecasts (that doesnt stop them from doing it though). Lately, Markets are roughly a flow based beast, these variations over and below trend correspond to variations in liquidity. Throw a lot of money at an equity MF they are forced to buy equity, they are an equity mf afterall,, pricesgoes up encouraging even more money to come in and the party goes on. The reverse process also works the same way. Both these flow based processes are what causes trend deviations in either directions. This is why valuations are a terrible timing mechanism, becuase above average (trend) valuation doesnt stop the party, the reversal of flows does.
@@prateeksharma1703 We saw 40 years of easing of interest rates across the world. Leveraged money is how money supply in the current global banking system works... and when it does dump... it'll be like Japan 1989.... just for the entire world. All nations are now indebted into a debt trap...
Money supply was growing parabolic, it will suffer a decline parabolic the same as money supply in a debt base monetary system decreases by: fewer lending and/borrowing, paying back borrowed loans, or the big one defaults. In a debt trap economic structure the default rates become a shock to the system and the entire financial domino of Peter to pay Paul ends the music.
There are few nations left that aren't saddled by the debt trap. Turkey, now China are among the last.
Brazil and Argentina, most European nations, US and Canada and even Australia already in that boat.
There are few nations remaining as borrowers of last resort... all that can be done is to encourage lending, but borrowers may not show up to the table; and at some point, you can't encourage lenders to lend either. No matter how much "QE" you're doing. And that becomes a problem as inflation will eventually happen as you're just at that point transitioning from a debt base monetary system to just a money printer go burr economy and that ends abruptly too with worthless currency... a stagflation effect.
Essentially, the last 40 years was similar game played after WWII and after WWI, and something that happened all through the 1800's, have the century of the 1800's in the US was in a recession, great depression, long depression, or panic. And we had private fake money scams or wild cat banking... similar to the goof ball crypto nonsense. This time it's mired int a massive fraud concerning so called stable coins.
Euphoria gone insane.
Each and every time this ended in civil war, war, riots and rebellion, a complete break down in society, rises of dictators and other gangsters and crazies.
They did a great job, they being the plutocrats that repealed various banking rules like Glass Steagall Act, in recreating in short order the next robber baron phase... that always ends in misery for many. Rules finally come back on line. This time... we ought learn from this stupidity. Aristocracy cannot be trusted... an aristocracy is pathetic, mostly parasitical. A new system more democratic in enterprise not just in government should commence, or in 100 years we'll be facing the same untenable nonsense. Businesses should become more co-op like in nature whereby all parties workers and customers have a say as to all aspects to the operation of the business.
Just as most governments became better providing democracy to self rule, the same is said to that of individual enterprises.
You would not see many of the parasitical self destructive behaviors we observe time and time again with autocratic dictatorship enterprises where very few make out like bandits at the exploitation of the customers and workers.
1) Stock buy backs that add no value to anybody but provide a short term sugar rush in prices so that executives can cash out their stock options or bonus stocks while bankrupting the enterprise won't happen.
2) Sending production overseas to skirt environmental laws and seeking tyrannized essentially slave/serf labor won't happen.
3) Additionally, those enterprises remaining domestically won't attempt to save a few pennies via unnecessary polluting their own area.
4) The compensation won't just flow to a few at the top, rather a better mechanism that would allow technological advances in productivity gains would go largely to the workers first and foremost.
5) You would actually have better quality and efficiencies develop with better incentive workers as they are now co-owners of the operation and can make critical decisions with better understanding of how the operations works and what changes are necessary to provide better quality, efficiency, and quantities produced as apposed to the current few who are usually disconnected from reality of the world, and worse, by the operation of the detailed operations itself. Not to mention many of the higher ups in most businesses today are products of aristocracy who are to be blunt in their own world of make believe, often foolish ineffectual in all they do if they do anything at all... and when they do, do something, they generally do what's good for number one at the expense for everyone else... many times over though they don't even make competent decisions that would be good for number one, themselves, either of the long term. Similar disconnected stupidity that arose from the inbred nobility of old in feudal and mercantile areas of Asia and Europe of old.
At ~9:00 you say “at that was higher than the y/y we saw just before the burst of the dot com bubble at the end of 2007”, i think you meant the great recession or the housing bubble or the “ownership” boom, as Shiller calls it.
Where does the 8.5% “average” come from?
check the SEC as he bought 96 stocks last month, he says one thing and does another.
Why are you going through US stats when the ONS UK released a CPI bulletin Jan 2022?
So you shouldn't buy a house or bonds or equity right now! Cheers Ramin!
Great video. Minor correction 08:59 you mean mortgage crisis/housing bubble and not dot come bubble ?
👍
We can make up catchy names until we pass out.... what we are looking at is the end of a global economic paradigm. This is not an organic economic pattern. It is the intentional destruction of the old system, but first they must shift all of the wealth to their "stakeholders" to ensure the implementation of the next paradigm.
Which "bubble" did he call that didn't happen?
Hi @Rusty, he's been pretty bearish for a while e.g. since 2018 www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1743d0x0ms3yx/why-is-no-one-listening-to-jeremy-grantham If you'd have listened to him then you'd have missed out on some pretty amazing returns. Thanks, Ramin.
The only explanation of performance differences in the last 4 or so years is "euphoria" and "bubbles"? How about that the market is pricing in the current trend? 50 years of credit expansion, building up emerging markets, and outsourcing from the US is bound to reverse as globalization breaks down. The markets could be right and know something we don't.
Great explanation. British, German and Japanese indexes seems acceptable. American value is also somewhat expensive but nothing unrealistic.
Glad it was helpful!
but if US goes down... unfortunately it takes everyone with it...
@@smvinay1206 but better value markets will recover much quicker in 2000 ASX (Australia) recovered much quicker than S&P500 which took to 2010
@@jasonwhiteley3612 true that
And why do these investors get air time when we are so past the normal. It’s not been crazy just recently, it’s been as such for years now. But for some reason at the sentiments of the news changes almost at the same time everywhere.
Great video, very clear, thanks Ramin.
"when Jeremy Grantham says we're in a bubble, its always a good thing to listen to what he says"
The only thing i've ever disagreed with Ramin on
Agreed
Can't wait to post that these comments didn't age well 🤣
@@nick2721 yeah you're right, we should have listened to grantham in 2011 and sold up ready for the 2022 bear market
Sometimes I question if I should have a value tilt, but I'm not convinced. I am about 60% US : 40% US, the global market-cap weight. Either way, I am going to keep buying every week.
Super bubble my ass!!! 5000 bubbles!!! lol
Japan has the problem of declining population which is why their economy is shrinking and their housing market will not recover. Again apples and oranges. There is a shortage of homes in US and that’s what driving it and not just the earning increase.
Isn't Grantham living in Singapore now?
As far as AMC, GME goes, initially it was a short squeeze. I don’t know what he means but have not seen it. It happened over a 100 stocks in 2000. CMIG went from 50 to 1400 in a short period of time and then it burst. Even for a company the size of VW happened in 2008 I think. It went over 900 Euros due to short squeeze.
What about FAANG? They inflate valuations because they are high growth, but that does not necessarily equate to 'craziness'. Any of these metrics take into account growth rate?
It’s the other tech companies with no income in crowded markets that are the problem
In the run-up to the dot-com bubble many many people kept saying that the market was very overvalued. However they were saying this for well over a year before the market peaked so did miss out on a lot of the market gains. You say that this commentator predicted the dot com crash, but for how long before the crash happened was he predicting it? In other words, if you frequently predict market crashes you are bound to be right some of the time.
I see what you mean. I think most retail investors want to time tops and bottoms perfectly which no one can. In a 10 year period, if you invest in 8 of it, let say you miss the bottom by a year and miss the end by a year but you get 8 years of growth you avoid the risk that's getting higher towards the extremes. Think it's a better approach to get paid and be happy instead of trying to maximise gain with strategies where the risk outweighs the benefits.
Bear in mind that while Jeremy is telling everyone we're about to have a huge crash, he's been loading up his portfolio with stocks. I'm not kidding. Just added another 90 this month. He doesn't act like someone who thinks the market is going to crash. He acts like we're at a bottom about to burst up.
House far will home prices fall 20 %
Another really useful video - I wish PensionCraft had existed 20 years ago ! I am well on the way to moving from Active to Passive, having watched your "Alternatives to Vanguard Lifestrategy Video' some months ago - are there any alternatives to 'Developed World Ex UK' that will give a 'value' slant or don't passives work in that way ?
Grains of salt firmly taken. Increasingly I fear much of what we see in business media is rife with experts talking their own books up as opposed an impartial conflict free opinion. Woods’ Ark is perfect example.
Emerging markets are undervalued because they are unpopular.
Tulip-mania is pretty similar to the meme-stock phenomenon.
Grantham's viewpoint is very similar to that of Peter Schiff. But we've been waiting for Peter Schiff's crash predictions to come true for over a decade now.
Correction- Emperor’s palace was worth more than Manhattan, NY not California
Maybe both?
@@sebfox2194 nah! California is huge
He's been calling for a crash since 2019, telling investors to avoid the US. Look how much you would have missed out on if you had sold in 2019. Now he may ultimately be right about the bubble, but we all know in terms of financial markets having the timing off is just as bad as being wrong.
Which is correct. It should have happened around 2019, but covid just messed up everything in the human history. I am not sure if I am correct also, but just feel like something is wrong…
Look up the bank bailout that happened in fall of 2019. It was $4.5T just to start and coincidentally kept secret by the Fed until Dec 30, 2021, which right before a holiday is a perfect time to release things you want to not get much notice. Basically the crash started when he said it would. The economy has been on artificial life support ever since until the big players can bail out, leaving us holding the bag.
@@jackalopewright5343 It's been on life support since QE was introduced in 2009, this is just the first time retail investors of a new generation have seen it in action.
He was correct However with the Fed Blowing trillions into the economy it kept it going ... nothing to do with fundamentals! Sad but true!
@@Garybroker54 Amazes me that the USD hasn't plummeted in value and desirability due to all the trillions of QE printing. Guess it's still coming.
Price inflation is everywhere housing vehicles food cryptos medical energy except physical silver it is unaffected by price inflation even though it was used as a hedge against inflation for centuries, it is the second most used element, yet it's still at a give away price amazing, I believe that's about to change
Grifter.
@@wolfiestreet6899 Grifter?
@@wolfiestreet6899 Sorry I stole your intelligence I now give it back, please be more careful with it
@@ownsilver Grifter.
the scariest video in the pension craft library...we need a balancing bullish video asap uncle Ramin ahaha
So with this in mind shouldnt we buy a US ETF that short sells?
Isn’t because there is more demand for stocks than ever before? Retail investors - in the last 2 years - have been given easy and cheap access to stocks. Investing apps have blown up. I have friends that never knew they could buy stocks until last year. So, surely it’s an influx of cash that was once just sat in bank accounts?
I think that’s certainly true and applies to me. The interesting part will be how those people react in a downturn having only recently invested. Will they start withdrawing money and selling investments back into cash, causing a bigger correction than would historically be the case? I can see this happening and regulators catching on late and telling fund managers like Vanguard people need to give 30 days notice or something to reduce volatility…
Can the housing and stock bubble burst at the same time? Inflation, rising rates leading to a recession (small) is probably the trigger for the perfect storm. Not to mention China, supply chain issues, Russian/Ukraine impacts on energy/food prices. Grantham probably has this one in the bag. Monday price action in the US markets will be interesting. Good luck all
He’s failed to note that the US & rest of the world had printed circa 100% more currency so valuations should upto twice as high. The fair value world is fundamentally different …,
Great job. Like you, I'm not at all as down as Grantham is. Also, imagine getting a 48% haircut on Google or Apple. You would be looking at cash flow monsters that could buy huge swaths of their stock back.
funny that the retails get called crazy but not the hedgefonds that naked shorted gme to over 100%. and Yes in my opinion based on my own research GME is still getting shortet way over 100% and thats the problem the US stockmarket will face if the HF get forced to close there naked short postion on GME and need to liquidate the hole market to be able to do so
When would the stock market be undervalued by three-sigma? At a CAPE value of -4?
The three-sigma rule applies to normal distributions, but I'd argue that the distribution is skewed. It may be far away from the average, but calling it a "three-sigma event" seems misleading to me.
Hi Ramin, would you consider doing a video on small caps now that valuations have come down so much? Thanks Jordan