Predict Your Next Race Time (EVERY time)
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- čas přidán 11. 10. 2021
- Do you know how to predict your race time? Use equivalent performances!
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Predicting a race finish time can be challenging if you're not sure what you're capable of in a maximum effort scenario. The best way to predict ANY finish time is to use your past results (this is not the stock market!).
In this video, Jason discusses the concept of equivalent race performances, how to improve your skill at racing, and the fool-proof method for always predicting any race time.
Jason Fitzgerald is a USATF running coach, 2:39 marathoner, and the host of the award-winning Strength Running Podcast. He's the 2017 Men's Running Magazine's Influencer of the Year and his work has appeared in Runner's World, Health Magazine, The Washington Post, Lifehacker, and other major media.
Visit strengthrunning.com/ to see their award-winning blog, free email courses, and full library of training programs and coaching services.
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Another great video, especially the 2nd point about basing your potential performance on recent performance. Another factor is age. At 62, my performances do change significantly over a relatively short time frame. My son, on the other hand is 21 and his performances are similar, just in the opposite direction.
At 39 years old and a runner for only 4 years I'm about to run my first ever race this coming weekend. Half marathon trail run with about 1200 ft elevation gain. No clue what to expect for my time since I'm mainly a city runner, but honestly my goal is to simply not DNF. :) I'll be pretty pumped just to be mid pack.
Three hours.. and that will be good for a high tech trail.
Trail races with a lot of elevation gain/loss are separate beasts! Run by effort, instead of pace, for those types of races.
@@maryqc8418 That was actually my target! I figure if I can average 12 min/mile I can hit 3 hours. That feels doable.
@@JasonFitzgerald Thanks, Jason! Yeah, I'll be listening to my body for sure.
@@maryqc8418 2h37m / 4th place! :)
I emailed you this question a week ago so my ears are burning. But I ran a 301 marathon last Sunday it was my PB last time my best was a 309. But the course had 1300 feet of elevation change and 4 miles of crushed limestone trail which sounds great but I could quite get the push and snap I got off the paved path. And in Ohio last Sunday we had the same weird weather as Chicago a warm brisk wind and more humid than typical weather this time of year.but I for the first time ran one best mile splits my last mile meaning i wasn't obliterated limping to the finish the problem was the previous 2 miles 24 and 25 were uphill so my pace was off just enough to ruin my chance at a sub 3 even despite the weather and course. I was very pleased. On a flat course I really think I could have easily gotten it. But man I had fun and felt great it was awesome. And do to the course difficulty and lack of competition w Cleveland having its marathon the following week my old butt came in second overall.
I feel like I’m going to come back to this video so many times in the next few years! Thanks so much 👍🏼👍🏼
Love the tip about racing more! That's something I could definitely be better at since sometimes I just want to avoid the hurt haha. It's also important to remember that just because your 5k race time predicts you're capable of X marathon time, you actually have to put in the proper training to make that happen. What are your thoughts are Garmin race predictors using your VO2 max...of course there nowhere near perfect but do you feel they can give runners a good ballpark estimate?
I see is so many runners get beyond nervous in a race situation so perform sub par but training is low pressure so they perform well. Racing more helps alleviate some of the nervousness. Good tips Jason!
Another Great Video!
Very good info! Better than most
Great video. I watched it twice. I've run some 5ks and an down around 30 minutes for that. I had no idea what speed to train the half for. The equivalent times I find feel fast so I'm thinking it'll be around 11 to 12 minute pace. We'll see in two weeks. I'm feeling in great aerobic shape.
I’m around your speed for the 5K, ran my first 10K at around 10:45 pace, and my first half 2 weeks ago at 11:30 pace. First time I have ever run that distance, so hopefully you can do better. Good luck and have fun!
Hi good video and like all runners we need to have a ball park figure of what to expect regarding finish time.
Do you recommend a specific calculator in order that we can access times ourselves as you didn’t really cover this.
Many thanks
I raced too much one year and got hurt too much. I think I overcompensated and only did one race this year (also, COViD canceled a bunch of stuff). Thanks for the info! I need to do better at racing!
I haven’t been able to run longer than 5.25 miles this year, but I still managed to get close to my 5K PR which I set in 2019 when I regularly did runs of 7+ miles and did a half marathon and a 15K race.
Nice! Train more and you'll get even faster!
@@JasonFitzgerald I would like to, but back issues have me limiting my miles for now.
Woww... 18:15mins 5K, that's exactly my time ran last week but 2 mths ago my marathon finish is just 3:14hrs, no where near that sub-3hr. With no races in 2 years already at my place, can I use Time Trials to predict future race times? Like FM TT time to predict actual race times.
Think the other addition to this would be to have an equivalent training build up. Managed a 18:57 in the 5k but have specialised training around that distance. I am no where near the equivalent VDOT for the half marathon - with a targeted 12 week program I’m sure I could.
Right, this is a great point Ashley! If you run a PR in the 5k, that doesn't necessarily mean you can go run the equivalent time in the marathon. But it does mean that with training, it's possible.
@@JasonFitzgerald I'm not sure it always does.. my 5k PB = 20:01 (72% age grade). HM PB =1:38:50 (65% Age Grade).. both in spring 2020 on a coached HM plan, comparable courses and conditions. It doesn't matter how focussed my training is on long races my short course times always come out much better. If you can explain it I'd love to know why. (I'm 49 with 5 years of club running behind me)
@@derekwood8184 Because it's easier to run faster in shorter distances. The longer races require more volume to fully express your potential. Most runners don't do that volume or aren't consistent enough with it. So most runners will have more competitive shorter distance race times.
@@JasonFitzgerald thanks for getting back to me.. for those times I averaged a little over 30miles per week and the longrun peaked at 15miles.. I don't have more mileage in me, I've tried but just burn out, any suggestions or have I simply got as good as I can get? (certainly feels like it)
Are Garmin's watch race predictors accurate for your chosen distance if you haven't run a race for a while?
no, not even slightly. If you have a parkrun locally, do that as your short race datapoint. The point is if pre-main-race you always run (say) a particular 5k.. (this is why parkrun is so great, it's on every saturday) then you can compare from one season to the next.. hit a new 5k PB when on a Marathon plan, then your Marathon is likely to be faster too. BUT beware of the tables, (showing Marathon times vs 5k times etc) my long-race vs short-races don't align at all.. I can beat capable marathoners at 5k, but get soundly beaten even by the HM, we are all different.
I’ve found that Garmin predicts my 5k performance quite well, but predicts me about 15 minutes faster than I’m capable of in the marathon.
Its difficult to use mile pace instead of minutes per kilometer, i have to stop everytime the video to make the converstion 😰
Stick to metric. I can figure out what you’re saying when you keep bouncing back and forth.
Stop watching my videos if you're so upset about this that you have to leave a comment demanding something. I have no respect for your internet outrage.