Bill Ackman: SVB Collapse; Biden vs Trump; How I Lost $400M on Netflix; Bill's 10-Year Long | E991
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- čas přidán 19. 06. 2024
- Bill Ackman is the CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P., an SEC-registered investment adviser founded in 2003. Pershing Square is a concentrated research-intensive fundamental value investor in long and occasionally short investments in the public markets. Bill is also a member of the board of Universal Music Group N.V. He serves as a member of the Investor Advisory Committee on Financial Markets for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and a member of the Board of Dean’s Advisors of the Harvard Business School. Prior to forming Pershing Square, Mr. Ackman co-founded Gotham Partners Management Co., LLC.
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Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
0:40 How Bill Raised His First Fund
4:13 Bill’s Relationship with David Berkowitz
6:40 How Bill Decides Who to Trust
8:27 What is Bill running from/towards?
10:26 Losing $400M on Netflix
18:19 Tips for Position-Sizing
23:35 Why Bill Posts on Twitter
26:58 The SVB Banking Crisis
42:31 Bill’s Relationship to Money
45:58 Tips for a Happy Marriage
49:26 Tips for Raising Kids as a Rich Person
51:50 The Trend Most Investors Are Missing
52:48 Who Bill Most Admires
53:50 Bill’s Favorite 10-Year Long & Short
55:08 Why Bill’s SPAC Failed
57:26 Bill’s Idea to Fix Income Inequality
1:00:42 Problems with the Tax Code Today
1:03:35 What scares Bill Ackman about the economy?
1:05:40 Will America be stronger or weaker in 10 years?
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In Today’s Episode with Bill Ackman We Discuss:
1.) From HBS to Starting Your First Fund:
How did Bill go from HBS to raising his first fund in Gotham Partners? How was that first fundraise?
From 100 meetings, what worked? What did not work? What were the core fundraising lessons?
What did Bill learn about great partnerships from his time with David building Gotham?
2.) Bill Ackman: A Winner’s Mindset: How To Deal with the Highs and Lows:
On reflection, what have been the most challenging times for Bill professionally?
What does he say to himself when he is going through the hardest times? What is his mind talk?
When the war is lost and it is time for learning, how does Bill reflect and learn from losses?
Bill has previously described himself as “the most persistent man in America”. How does Bill know when enough is enough, he was wrong and it is time to change his approach?
3.) Bill Ackman: SVB + Bank Runs and The Future of our Financial System:
Why does Bill believe that the depositor guarantees for SVB and Signature Bank have created a “Three Tier Banking System”? What are those three tiers?
Why does Bill believe that SVB is now the safest place to deposit your money? Why is First Republic Bank and SVB very different in terms of their exposure?
What can be done to prevent further bank runs? What should the Fed be doing? Why are they not doing it? What would Bill do if he was in charge of the Fed?
Why does Bill believe the current levels of FDIC insurance are insufficient and outdated? What should be used in their place?
4.) Bill Ackman: The World Around Us & Potential Politician
Why does Bill want Jamie Dimon to run for President? If it is Trump vs Biden, who wins?
Why does Bill believe Biden’s tax policies destroy the US economy? What should we have instead?
Why does Bill believe we should give every newborn baby $6,500 and invest it for them when born?
What are Bill’s 10-Year Long’s and 10-Year Shorts? Why them?
Would Bill ever run for politics? When is the right time?
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This year has proven challenging, marked by losses from failed banks, real estate downturns, a struggling economy, and setbacks in stocks and dividends. It seems like everything has been going wrong, making it a particularly tough period.
Government policies have, for decades, jeopardized the future. The impending repercussions suggest an anticipated 80% decline in the stock market. Investors are expected to shift focus towards real estate, as traditional banking may face financial instability. It's crucial to formulate a survival strategy in light of these potential changes.
Having a sound financial plan is essential. Collaborating with a professional planner and fixed income strategist, would ensures you that the fixed-income segment of your portfolio not only acts as a buffer against equity volatility but also generates substantial income.
Indeed, I concur! Working alongside John Desmond Heppolette has been instrumental in connecting me with a robust financial community. Through this verified organization, I've gained valuable insights into the mechanics of investing and making informed investment decisions. The added benefits of free books, courses, and daily lectures have significantly enriched my knowledge. Plus, the opportunity to meet new people has proven to be the most rewarding decision I've made.
The impact of the SVB and SI crises has been clear as day on the regional bank ETF (KRE), which has taken a nosedive by more than 20%. This has triggered a ripple effect, causing a drop in the overall market. But, as history has shown us, a localized and narrow contagion like this presents a ripe opportunity to invest in solid and fiscally responsible companies that have substantial cash reserves on hand.
The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has torn into global markets, with investors ripping up their forecasts for further rises in interest rates and dumping bank stocks around the world. I'm at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my dipping 200k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
@@james.atkins88 Given that we are not accustomed to such uncertain markets, the fact that the US stock market has been on its longest bull run ever makes the widespread anxiety and excitement comprehensible. There are opportunities if you know where to go, as you noted that it wasn't difficult for me to earn more than $780k in the previous 10 months. Since I was aware that I would need a reliable and strong plan to get through these tough times, I engaged a portfolio advisor.
@@edward.abraham My portfolio has been in the gutter for the entire year, so I started researching new ways to profit in the market, but everything I tried just seemed to miss the mark. Please let us know the name of your financial advisor.
@@Believer292 Renowned for her proficiency and expertise in the financial market, “Julia Ann Finnicum” my financial advisor, holds a broad understanding of portfolio diversification and is recognized as an authority in this domain.
@@edward.abraham Thank you for this tip, I must say, JULIA appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, educational background, and qualifications, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money. A trader made over $350k in this recession influenced market
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
@@user-hz8fm3dg6x Please who is the consultant who assists you with your invest-ments? And if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with this person?
@@user-hz8fm3dg6x I just looked him up and sent him a mail. Thank you. Any idea if his service includes managing family portfolio?
This was great. He is a really cool guy. It’s funny how he uses trading terms to describe his life. ‘volatility in my marriage’ ‘dips in my life’
Banks are selling mortgages. People always say it's a good option to buy at discount, but with the market turmoil and everything at stake in present economy, I'm thinking of buying stable coin to hedge against inflation, or is it all right saving over 350k ?
Agreed, financial advisors play a key role in portfolio allocation and i've been using one since late 2019 just before rona outbreak. So far, I'm barely 25% short of $1m ballpark goal after subsequent investments.
@@Justinmeyer1000 please excuse my curiosily, would you mind sharing more info on your advisor? im in dire need of guidance
@@shannonsally455 Can't divulge much “JULIE ANNE HOOVER” is the advisor that oversees my portfolio. She's an extremely intelligent person, very thoughtful, cautious, and has an outstanding credentials, it's easy to find her on the web.
@@Justinmeyer1000 Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
This is by far the best interview I've seen with him. Really great and original questions!
Whether you love him or hate him, you have to admit that Ackman is a very articulate and interesting interviewee
Best ever interview with BA. This should be a monthly thing, getting Bill's thoughts on everything that's happened in the past month.
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was the 16th largest bank in the US, and it wasn't subject to the most strict controls. How many banks actually are subject to those controls, besides the big four? Any bank could suffer a run and fail, and if that happens to a community level or even state level bank it probably won't upset the national economy or ecosystem of banks, but any multi-state bank should be more closely watched.
Government policy has thrown the future under the bus for decades. The day of judgment is near. I predict an 80% drop in the stock market. Investors will abandon stocks in favor of real estate. There will be no money in banks... You must devise a strategy for survival
@@jacobelord These are the conditions in which life-changing money is made by those who remain calm, patient, and take controlled risks. Volatility goes both ways. The bigger the red candles, the bigger the green ones
@@Isaacmeide You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a broker, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst
@@vivianecardoso0 It's a good time to buy and basically I've just got cash sitting duck in the bank and I'd really love to put it to good use seeing how inflation is at an all time-high, who is this coach that guides you, mind I look them up
@@ellamezo There are lots of them but almost everyone works with ISABEL LINDA DUERI this days, she's getting more recognized by day, she strategies has been the best this period
this was a great session.
Loved the questions. Bill should do more long-form content like this. Insightful.
So glad to hear someone say that on balance, successful businesses benefit society more than philanthropy.
Prophet muhamad was the best merchant most profitable merchant during his time most profitable trustworthy entrepreneur of his time. So much so that the most prettiest hotest 40 year old richest billionaire business women his boss married him. After he worked for her for a while. He married his lady boss.she was hot. Ow noo. I'm gonna be a 40yo old lady. Ow noooo and its never going back.. only older from there. Telulah is a cougar. A happy cougar
But khadijah was the prettiest and muhamad was the most handsome. Many rich billionaires the richest ones asked for khadijah's hands. But she said no. She married a poor young boy
Talk about contraversy.. khadijah older than him and rich. Aishah was young but adriana that wasn't the issue,back then everyone got married young 1400 years ago even in America... but Adriana America is not 1400 years old 😅 anyways most of the world legal age for marriage still under 15 till today
I am extremely concerned about the ongoing banking crisis, especially since even a large institution like SVB is at risk of failing. I am worried about the potential impact on other banks as well. A friend of mine who runs a high-growth startup was severely affected by the bank run. Consequently, I withdrew over $340k from my bank, knowing that the FDIC only covers up to $250,000, and the repercussions of a collapse could be severe. As a result, I am now considering investing in the stock market. Can anyone advise me on how to proceed?
Bad start to the year with these banks collapsing, META down 40k, ALLP down 35k, Draft Kings down 6k, NIO down 15K, ABML down 8k, and my wife doesn’t know. I'm just hanging on to Jim Cramer's words about opportunities in volatile times so perhaps, I either wait for a recovery or pick profitable investments to substitute for my loss.
Working with a reputable investing coach is now the greatest market approach. Since a while ago, I've been in contact with a coach, mostly because I don't have the breadth of knowledge or mental fortitude to handle these recurrent market conditions. I made almost $700k during this downturn, demonstrating that the market is more complex than most people realize.
@@tatianastarcic I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging. who’s the person guiding you?
@@tatianastarcic Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really does have an impressive background on investing. Will write her an email shortly
So nice to see an interview like this with great audio !
They were prying questions, but that's what makes a great interview! Thanks Bill for opening up. Continued blessings health and family.
Recessions are where millionaires are created. I feel for the older generation, but you should do everything possible to double and triple your investments if you are young or middle age.
That's right, getting in touch with a consultant during the pandemic was how I was able to scale through the crazy stock downtrend.
@@jonathanburtnick The stock market has been a really tough one this past year, but I watched an interview on CNBC where the anchor kept mentioning "Elisa Angele Esparza ". This prompted me to get in touch with her, and from August 2022 till now we have been working together, and I can now boast of $540,000 in my trading portfolio.
@@angeladeem2988 Mind if I ask you recommend this particular coach you use their service? I have trouble knowing when to buy or sell.
@@dianarabbanii2 Elisa Angele Esparza is widely known. You can verify her and use her services if you want.
@@angeladeem2988 Thanks for the info , found her website and its really impressive
Hey harry, I just want to say you have some real good content I can’t believe this channel only has this many subscribers. Liked and subscribed because the questions you asked were absolutely phenomenal. I can tell Bill was enjoying the interview and got asked questions he was never asked before. An interesting session , I feel like bill really liked this interview. By far one of the best I’ve seen , great job as always Harry
I have never heard of your channel but saw Bill and tuned in. I must say I have heard dozens of Ackman interviews but this is the best by far. What great questions you asked and his responses were interesting and genuine. Fabulous stuff.
agreed
There might be an economical turmoil but there is no doubt that this is still the best time to invest.
Best time to invest? thats funny though because in the last four months I have lost more than $47,900 in the stock market which is the biggest I have loss since I ventured into stock investment.
you could be right or wrong . i once had similar problem but now its a different ball game for me because I was lucky to have met KATRINA VANRENSUM , a financial manager and stock expert, I have made more than $165,000 in 6 weeks under her supervisions
Really? people are cashing in from the stock market and frankly speaking its comforting seeing someone admit to the fact that they actually seek help from professionals. please how can i reach KATRINA VANRENSUM ?
Search her name on the web you will see all you need to know about her.
Thanks for the info , found her website and it really impressive
Just a Phenomenal & Fantastic Episode. This was a Enjoyable Episode. Bill is a Prince of a Man. Thank you for making my 1 hour drive from Tucson Az to Tempe enjoyable Good Sir. 🙏
I'm a few minutes in and already loving it! Cheers to the 20VC team!
Never watched this channel but interviewer had GREAT thoughtful questions.
Such a good interview, thanks!
Just 5 minutes into this interview, I felt compelled to comment on how fantastic it is. Seeing Bill Ackman in a relaxed setting, candidly discussing his journey, is truly enlightening. I've been following his career for years and it's been remarkable to see his evolution.
Thanks for this video. I had a different and negative picture of Bill Ackman, and here I am seeing is a normal human being with a clear objectives, grounded and proud of his parents. This video really change mi mind about Bill Ackman.
best interview ive seen with bill. well done.
Really great interview. Amazing questions.
Don’t let the past disrupt the future! Thanks Bill
Amazing interview with Bill! Congrats Harry!
Amazing! Such thoughtful and original questions!
Excellent interview will Mr. Ackman. I really enjoyed it. Bill comes across as a very nice friendly guy. Love to see someone so successfully this down to earth.
The Ferrari chair. This is why I love this guy. We are the same.
Please keep making your fabulous timestamps! ❤
Extremely Interesting Interview. Thank you for sharing.
Great interview! Great to have BA on the podcast
Brilliant interview from both sides!!! Good job Harry and Bill!
Well done interview!
Thanks for your knowledge Bill! Really hope to meet you one day
This is a great interview!
Love the slick new video Harry!
Been looking forward to this. 20VC team crushing it
wow - actually a fantastic podcast - most finance podcasts suck but I enjoyed this
Okay. I will also use the track record of my life experience! Thanks Bill
Bill Ackman I love this guy. You can learn so much from this guy.
I have never listen to Bill before.
I am a self made multi but I wish I could have worked in his firm 30 years ago.
Best interview with Ackman ever
Fantastic interview.
Credit goes to Harry for a great approach and well worded questions.
👍🏿
Great questions Harry
Thanks.. this was very educational 😊
Great interview!
Wonderful interview. Always been curious about Bill. Great guy!
Great interview. Such natural flow and follow ups!
Great interview. He should have held on to Netflix!
This was instructive. Thank you both.
Nice video, lots of nuggets. One big takeaway was that Bill has a very expensive Patek Philippe watch on.
Which kind
@@k.matthews1158 I believe 5990 traveltime chronograph in stainless steel. Probably around $180k USD at current prices.
Killer interview. Now I want a gaming chair like Bill.
43:10 Bill nearly rolling his eyes at the most adolescent thing he (and we) have heard for too long. . .
How can anybody pass the age of 25 say "I equated money to self-worth and happiness" ?
Bill's advice about marriage at 46:00 hit hard.
Would absolutely love to see Ackman run for President
Fantastic interview
Superbly done
The negative impact of SVB and SI debacles has been reflected in the regional bank ETF (KRE) which has witnessed a decline of over 20%. This event has triggered contagion effects, dragging the entire market lower. However, historically speaking, a localized and narrow contagion of this nature presents an opportune time to invest in strong, financially stable companies with substantial cash reserves on their balance sheets.
Indeed, the recent market downturn serves as evidence that a vast majority of individuals lacked a sufficient understanding of the underlying financial dynamics at play.
I agree, which is why I prefer having an investment coach make my day-to-day investment decisions. Given that their entire skill set revolves around using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the unique information and analysis they have, it's practically impossible to underperform. I've been using an investment coach for more than two years and have made over 2.8 million.
I actually subscribed for a few trading courses but it didn't help much, been getting suggestions to use a proper financial advisor, how did you go about touching base with your coach?
Jackson Sten Marsh, is the coach that quite known in his field, look-him up.
I Researched his accreditation. he seem very proficient, I wrote him detailing my Fin-market goals and scheduled a call.
@9:30 ish
I had volatility in my marriage, and volatility in my career…
I immediately adopt that expression 😂😂😂
Great content, enjoyed that. Excellent questions.
It was a pleasure to watch this interview. Thank you
Good one, Harry! Some marital advise thrown in as bonus!
Harry, any interview with Ackman should be followed up with an interview with Carl Icahn. No doubt Carl would be VERY receptive because he's definitely noticed Ackman going on podcasts like Lex Fridman. Also, Leon Cooperman is also doing appearances on CZcams. He's got some very distinct views on Trump that would definitely increase viewership.
Great interview 👍
I don't always agree with Bill Ackman, but I love his personal story, and drive to make America stay great
I like Bill Ackman . He is a straight shooter and a maverick. Out of the box thinking.
Bill, you show me a pay stub for $72,000 dollars, I quit my job right now and I work for you.
survival of the unfittest, in my mind you either get it right or get a bailout
-Gordon Gekko
Excellent interview! Looking to start CREmls now and a CREIfund soon... Thanks for the show 🙂
Once we learn to embrace the volatility of life and ride the ways we become an optimist and can find solution and peace essentially in everything. 🥂
Great content
1:00:28 that sounds good on paper but horrible in application, most Americans have no idea how to manage money and a majority of that million would go towards sustaining material needs.
You could probably restrict what they spend it on and it would still work out pretty well
That would be their own fault, at least they can't complain about not having an adequate pension
Amazing interview. You ask all the right qustions while still feeling honest.
Amazing!! ⭐️
Ehh weird question but does anyone know what chair bill has
Looks like a gamer/ streamer chair LOL. Maybe Bill sees the market as playing a video game and streaming it to the sheep on CNBC
Wow, so admirable (how his parents raised him, and his entrepreneurial ventures)
Does anyone know the brand of the chair Bill sits in? Looks very comfy. Thanks.
For those interested: brand is Ferrari.
USD 10K...
It better be comfy
But just bc there’s low unemployment doesn’t mean people are actively hiring, most businesses are looking out for their bottom line and they don’t want to expand right now past what works. So opening immigration might not be the right solution. 40:29
Not the right solution for the common man but the right solution for well hedged or benefitting individuals. More employees equals more money for the top companies. They can care less about the folks waiting in the lunch line. If the restaurant is busy, who cares about if people can afford it.
Bill Ackman sold me fentanyl
Not the best/sorta weird interviewer but ackman does seem to always be fantastic
Big Bill knows.
1st time viewer loved the interview thanks 😊
Dude asked great questions
Bill Ackman is much misunderstood. I have the bulk of my investable wealth in his fund, which is against advice but I trust him long term to perform well.
Will listen to this later
Your hair caught my attn
Which chair is Bill seating on? Anyone?
Thought the same thing. It has a Ferrari logo on it. Might be from this site? e.g., boss-chairs.com/en/home/152-ferrari-488-sport-office-chair.html
Big fan of Bill.
This guy is the 🐐
Why is this speeded up beyond 1x?
What I learned: Sleep, nutrient, build muscle, surround with people who love you, and make progress daily: Compound physical, mental, business to make massive progress.
Notice the disclaimer: "...not directly..." not exposed to the bank....
Great stuff!
ohh man quality of people isnt dissapointing!
J Powell is definitely on his burner defending the Feds incompetence like KD defended his ring chase 😂
Great interview. Interesting that Ackman learned a tough lesson about liquidity/duration mismatch at Gotham Partners, but doesn't see that this is exactly the problem with the fractional reserve banking system. Except that the problem is on steroids due to 10-15x leverage and conformist bank managers who have a knack for being over-exposed to the bubble asset of the day. This time they piled on interest rate risk in 2020-21 during the final blow off phase of a 40-year bull market in bonds.
Banks are poorly run, super-leveraged hedge funds that we (the taxpayer and saver) bail out every cycle. There is a huge cost to this, and it isn't good for America or American businesses.
Brilliant inputs
I want to create fund House?
Need suggestions
So inspired