What The Data Tells Us About Alex Pereira Vs Jamahal Hill At UFC 300
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- čas přidán 22. 03. 2024
- Hi everyone, welcome to the Strike Savvy CZcams Channel. The goal of this CZcams channel is to analyze fights, fighters and other stuff in MMA through the visualization of data.
I'd like to say first that this video is in no way meant to bash or discredit a particular fighter that was mentioned in this video. Even though I present a lot of statistics in this video to prove my point, the final conclusion is still my own opinion. This video was created out of love for the sport. Comment your opinions below but please be respectful when sharing them.
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Sources: www.ufcstats.com and rewatching fights on www.ufcfightpass.com
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This fight has potential to be an absolute war and I’m here for it
really? I think this fight has almost 0% chance to be a "war". Both Perreira and Jamahall either K.O Quick, or get K.O'd quick. The likelihood this will be a slugfest is pretty much 0.
I think Jamahall by first round KO. (sadly because I'd love Alex to win).
@@Habib_OsmanAlex has only been KOed once in his career (MMA + Kickboxing), all of his stoppage losses in kickboxing were TKOs. I don’t think it’s really fair to say he gets “K.O’d quick.”
@@Habib_Osman while the data suggests otherwise, I think it’s moreseo the condition of these fighters that will allow for a war. I think Pereira at 205 has a better chin and is in better overall condition than he was at 185, and I think Jamahal hill will be pretty fresh after almost two years off. I think it’ll be a 4th or 5th round tko win for Pereira, or something crazy and unexpected like Glover vs Jiri. At least that’s what I’m hoping for.
@@LeoScott True, Perreira has been hard to KO in his career. Still I think this fight will end in a quick KO. Perreira might only be 36 but he's old in the game, he has the achievements of a guy that should retire (is what I meant). I think Jamahall wins because: He's fresher with 3x less total fights, gifted as a fighter in precision and shot-selection and very explosive/fast and hard to predict.
Why is nobody talking about the fact when Alex Pereira fights people who switch to southpaw he doesn't throw any leg kicks when his opponents switch to southpaw? Rewatch Alex's fight with Adesanya the second time, everytime Adesanya switched to southpaw he throw no leg kicks and backed up. Rewatch the fight with Jiri, when Jiri switched to southpaw Alex throw no leg kicks. Alex Pereira only tries to land headkicks when his opponents switch to southpaw in front of him. (When it comes to kick selection)
He did against Bruno Silva who si southpaw, he have to be cautious but he can
I'm pretty sure because of how the foot battle works it may be because its easier to win the foot battle and line up the right straight as a counter to the leg kick in southpaw
@@playcubeminecraft you can only judge a fighter on there last fight. When Jiri switched to southpaw Alex throw no leg kicks.
@@Monalisa1437He doesn't need his leg kicks to win, every fight he has finished came from his boxing. At best, the leg kicks were a set up but he has great feints as well. His jab is pretty decent too.
Alex vs Southpaw: czcams.com/users/clipUgkx8-G7rOUQrL5HcckAxGR99vSzcaJ-2J8v?si=TIwOn4LI5vao68IU
Hill is coming back on a from a bad leg injury against one of the most proficient leg kickers in the UFC. This is setup for Alex to KO Hill.
Hes a southpaw though its his back leg that got injured
@@JT76912so? He will likley switch stances after his leg gets kicked off and he puts at yo much weight on his front leg
Hill isn't like Jiri, Jiri lives and dies by pure instinct. Hill is going to be cerebral, prepared, and confident.
Secondly let's hope his leg is fine, that is not a factor we want in the ufc 300 main event...
@@N-fl8zi Pereira doesnt throw calf kicks against southpaws or when fighters switch to southpaw. If he does it would be more telegraphed and Jamahal could counter with a left high kick or straights down the pipe.
Alex on experience
Alex on leg kicks with hills questionable injury
Alex on speed
Alex on activity
Alex on resume
And id say Alex on power but I think they might be pretty even there but this is literally a matchup built for Alex, and all they can say is "bUt hILl iS a sOuThPAw aNd iZzY knOckEd hIM oUT"
Like you, I very much look forward to this fight. Don't let others influence the level of anticipation you have for the bout. I've been watching MMA for a bit over two decades now and I am constantly in awe of how high the general level of competition has gotten.
There's so many fun fights happening that it's easy to continue to love the sport. I appreciate the work you put into your analyses, keep up the good work.
Oliveira vs Arman next please
Hmm yes this would be a video I'd watch
I bet charles stats make no sense. Been in UFC forever and used to not be anywhere near as good, i could see them being all over the place
@@ghagzorcap
This channel is gonna be huge because you make great content. Love this stuff, keep it up.
Pereira's accuracy went down because his competition went up. Hill has good stats but against who? Thiago had no legs, Walker has always been all over the place (specially back then) and Glover had 1/3 of his agility from his past fights.
I don't think it's a easy fight. But if I had to bet money, I would put it on Pereira.
Good point the stats are useless without context
@@Art-vz6qh I agree. For example, I'm completely lost when it comes to Hill's striking defense.
At first glance Pereira's defense stats is better. But then I remembered that Hill took a lot of damage fighting Paul Craig towards the end of the fight.
So I would only be able to relay on the Glover fight. But Glover's speed in that fight was just sad to be honest.
When it comes to stats this fight is just a huge question mark.
I'm betting the house in hill. He doesn't have to strike Alex. He most probably wins by submission. Alex is a kickboxer. Jamah hill is a mixed martial artists
@@suecli8131 Hill's talking like it's a point of pride for him to stand up with Pereira. If that's all misdirection and he's planning to go for a sub, I'd be amused, but I doubt it is.
@@Shadowoftheoldones These guys are grown men. It would be selfish of him to choose his pride over his trainers. Prob doing it just to sell tickets. Trust me Hill by submission. Why tf would you strike with a guy who has bad ground game. Especially if your ground game is way better than his. Its not kickboxing its MMA. You exploit your opponents weakness , you dont play to their strength.
Really good video! Great to see you gaining some subs. Keep up the good work!
If Alex only defends his belt once, I'll be happy. If you doesn't, I'll cry.
amazing breakdown i agree 100%, this has huge potential to be a fight of the year or a quick fight. very fun for sure, love the stats man good work. im subbing
Another superb analysis, my friend. Please, keep up the amazing work, Mr. Savvy.
What a breakdown! U got my sub!!
Oh, you did your thing on this vid. Great break down! You got my Sub!
amazing analysis with storytelling keep going
this video is incredible, can’t wait to see more from you!
Bro, love your video style with the stats and graphs. Subscribed.
Bro this channel is fire you finna blow soon
Great video my man
that was an amazing analysis, as a fan of alex, i always thought since before he became the champ that jamhall hill is posing a huge threat to pereira, if you watch the jan and jiri fight, pereirea left himself open many times and they were catching him with many blows to head, now imagine hill, a guy with soooo much power and who primarly targets the head, it's a scary thought, and i dont like how overconfident some guys in this matchup, we said the same thing about izzy and alex ended up getting koed in the 2nd fight
both these guys deserve respect, and i hope they give us a war worthy of a ufc 300 main event
Dude, have you ever stopped to think that Alex let Jiri feel comfortable attacking just to catch him in a counter attack? Everyone knew that Jiri was going to attack anyway. Alex adapts his game to the opponent. His fight against Bruno Silva is completely different from his fight with Jiri.
Hill couldn’t even put down a 43 year old Glover he had been KO’d twice before he’s not putting Alex down
What brainless input 😂
@@harimohil3359Glover was dying out there against jamahal
@@galaxyvulture6649 ok? And did he fall? No? So what point are you trying to make? Hill couldn’t KO a 43 year old. Cope
When you think your a hardcore and then this guy walks into the room lol.
Another banger mate, these videos are gold.
One thing I think the stats won't tell us is that Pereira has a weakness to Jamahals best strikes. He loves catching people with those long straight counters, you mentioned his countering ability but not the fact Pereira has a weakness for being hit like this as well. He nearly got chinned in the first fight with Izzy by the same type of shot Hill is extremely proficient in delivering.
The difference is Adesanya is much sharper and slicker than Hill, Jamahal's striking is laboured and sloppy, and he certainly doesn't have the same timing, precision and speed of someone like Israel. Not really a good comparison tbh, but I think people are definitely sleeping on Hill.
@@nicholascoob1350 Nah my guy, that is almost entirely completely incorrect. If you want ill break it down but it requires a long one, if you wont read it i wont bother.
@@OnMicMMAlets hear it brother. Hill is a great striker in my opinion
@@squadabingo9113 Sure my guy no problem. First of all idk why he thinks I am comparing Hill to Izzy, they are so different. Just the weakness in poatans defense is there. That's all. That being said...
Hill is better because his approach doesn't rely on a size advantage. Notice how easy Izzys path to the title was. He literally had a sparring match vs a 44 year old Anderson Silva to get the belt... absolutely the most gimmie title win ever. Then there is a redundant pattern of when he's not significantly taller and longer he struggles Paulo is 6'1 for example but he has a 72 inch reach which is one inch less then our former featherweight champ volk.
This is not Hill at all. Hills approach is much more direct and modern, doesnt rely on physical advantages or....weakend or old opponents... Hills timing and precision are absolutely insane, you can do everything perfectly and Hill is the type of dude who will just sleep you on a dime. Timing and percision are literally all this man has.... so that's why I mainly disagreed. Idk why he wants to compare izzy to hill.
@@OnMicMMA ah ok. Nice breakdown. Not sure what you meant by Izzy getting the title after the Silva fight. He beat Gastelum for interim Good and the Whittaker to unify if I remember correctly. I could be wrong. Anyway appreciate u taking the time brother. Respect
Damn bro i almost forgot you was breaking down fights this flawlessly. And here i was thinking “damn there is no good CZcamsr now a days”.
This fight is gonna be awesome. I don't care how many ppl think it's boring. Whole card overall, including the prelims makes it a great card too.
I will say this number 1 alex is one of if not considered the 🐐 in kickboxing and Jamal is mainly a striker who hasn’t fought in over a year … im going with 75 percent chance alex gets it done
I am excited of these fights! Alex and Hill is a fire
It would be cool to see Hill use some of his grappling skills in this fight
I think having Glover in his corner is a somewhat underrated advantage for Pereira... You see so many of the top fighters now tag-teaming their division with great success (Merab and Aljo, Khabib and Islam, even Poirier was apparently training with Gamrot for his last fight.) No better way to get intel on an opponent than to train with someone who's already fought them.
Gold content my brother, keep it up!
The date shows. Alex is going to kod the fuck out of the other guy.
Poatan TKO (leg kicks) 0:15 R1
Lol. That'll never happen
Leg kicks aren't all that, dude. Hill kept defending himself against Craig even with his arm dislocated. No way a referee stops the fight so soon
Off topic request good sir: with the recent controversy in the community regarding eye pokes. Would it be possible for you document all or most eye pokes that have occurred, oh say in the past 1-2 years of the UFC's time? Im really curious about how much validity the, "gloves keep your hands open!" claim has since if true wouldnt we see eye pokes occur muuuch more often🤔 hate that the fight ended that way for Bruno Silva.
Honestly rooting for Poatan 🗿 to get it done @ 300 bc the storyline for him up till now is inspiring! CHAMA!!!💪🏽💪🏽
The main fact hill is overconfident is that he saw how chinny alex is and jamal has chin so he’s not afraid to bang with alex that’s why he is superconfident and we saw alex struggle when he gets hit but fight can goes either way will be an banger
Alex isn't Chinny at light heavyweight
@@robertbell6217 did Jan hit him clean enough to tell? I honestly don’t remember, but he seemed to have taken a few good hits from Jiri and looked fine.
@@nopuddingcups4360 Jan couldn't jiri did and alex reacted fine and baited him actually.
Does that mean that Hill is chinny?
Might not be 100%?? No athlete in history has ever come back even 80% of what they were after an achilles tear. It's the kiss of death for any athlete, no exceptions. On top of that we're only 1 year out? We're gonna see a shell of Jama-hill.
Not at all true
Dominique Wilkins and Kevin Durant?
How bad was the tear? Complete tear or a 5 percent tear? You can’t just say that.
You never know. Injuries are all different and people deal with them differently.
Look at Yoel and Cruz.
They both have been injured countless times and Yoel comes back just as strong.
Genetics and injuries tell the full story.
lol this isn't the 2000s dawg. achilles reconstruction surgery is way better these days injuries there aren't the death sentence they used to be.
Why would you say something so dumb. You instantly out yourself for knowing sports
Main event is gonna be good
I think one equalizer when it comes to this matchup I hardly see people mention is that Alex basically has PTSD from that Izzy KO lmao, go watch his fight back with Jan, in Round 2 he had Jan hurt badly and could’ve finished him if he swarmed him more against the fence, but he clearly was scared to push in and was extremely careful throwing strikes at him against the fence. It shows smartness from Alex but it could’ve cost him as it was a very close split decision and he could’ve lost if a different judge was in the booth due to not hunting that finish. I think if gets Jamahal against the fence or just rocked without dropping him we’re gonna see that same Alex who gets flashbacks to that Izzy KO and refuses to get careless and push in, Hill’s best chance to KO him is in the center of the Octagon pressuring him in my opinion and that’s dangerous for Hill, Jiri got KO’d off the back foot trying to pressure Alex against the cage
It make sense man. Izzy KO him because alex get careless.
Good argument but Jan fight was his first fight in another weight class right after being knocked out, so its only normal to be cautious.
🤔
hill tore his achiles tendon a couple months and i was wondering if the calf kicks would do more damage than usual since he is most likely not 100% recovered from it
The fact is: Actually, NO ONE in UFC can deal with Poatan striking! We talking about the first Glory's double champion, who beat basically everyone of the best strikers on Both UFC, MiddleWeight and Lightheavyweight, divisons. Double champion of UFC, this guys is UNREAL. So anyone who will strikes against him is technically the "Darkhorse".
Will you make a new video about the stats from their fight and what it tells?
Down the line!
Of all people I thought you’d mention Hill’s clinch work, honestly never seen clinch knees so lethal at high weight classes.
I been saying HILL and after this amazing video I'm still riding with HILL
Subscribed 🫡
It really depends how jamahal heals and if he gets ring rust from inactivity
UFC writers really nailed it with this one
IDK i wouldn't say it's a prime Pereira as well. Dude is 37... that's not necessarily old for LHW, but it's not young either. I could see Hill winning on speed and gas alone. That being said, it's important to remember something: pereira is a boxer at heart. Most of his wins on Kickboxing were through his hands. The notorious calf kick is something he seemed to bring specifically during his transition to UFC, because UFC fighters won't stand on the pocket too much.
Why is no one talking about hills chin..if your a little chubby you can handle the blows far better. Hill is a more robust fighter. Love both. Im going hill. Either way im happy both these studs got to headline 300
Having fat doesn't make a chin better but It can allow someone to take body blows better
@@theunkownguy5574 are you sure about that? Remember DC?
@@nicolasoliveira4903 DC has 4 losses one of them was from getting chined by a Jon's kick and another one is getting chined by stipe , so half his losses were from gettin chined now thats not to say he has a bad chin jons and stipe are big guys but they also r certainly not the hardest hitters in their division but DC does not a perfect chin , now i am sure having a little fat helps take body shots but the difference in fat on the face between a ripped bodybuilder and Daniel is a differnce in centimeters in fat , butttt not cutting a ton of weight and not dehydrating urself does help in not deoritating ur chin so that prolly did help Daniels chin but that's not saying being fat helped his chin bc its more than likely not cutting a ton of weight helped his chin and jus being a bit fatter was an effect of jus not cutting a ton of weight
It really depends on how Hill recovered from the injury
He cant win against Putan
before his injury
what about the grappling aspect?
This fight definitely won't go pass round 3. One of them is going to sleep and I don't see Jamahal Hill getting finished at this point in his career
Bet the house on Pereira, I'm telling you. He will ko Hill on the first round.
i agree
Nice read
@firstnam😂elastname6699
W prediction
The more I think about the more that it makes sense for Alex to retire if he wins this fight. Honestly I would love to see him keep fighting and winning. But, the thought of leaving with a short yet accomplished history makes it all worth it.
Against Southpaw I think we will see more body and head kicks from Alex. He also visited Steven Seagal recently so we may see a surprise front kick ko….
Nice😊
Hill and Pereira are the few real fighters of todays UFC 🙌🏼
I feel like that could be said about any fight, it could go this or that way. Considering Alex archivments and oponents he is favourable in this matchup, no question
People is underestimating alex defense the only reason we saw alex getting hit is because his competition is agresive like jan and jiri those two are awesome strikers specially jiri with how agresive he is even with all the volume he could not put out alex plus alex has a extreme variety of kicks and from both stances
That’s just a cope brother. In reality Alex has always been very hittable, from his kickboxing days to now especially. What you’re saying is basically Alex has only fought people who are very aggressive so of course he got hit more, which is a really bad way to “analyze” things.
@@vietnamsemonky4082 it's just facts jiri and and Jan are precise power punchers they really put volume overwhelming his opponents specially jiri My point is jiri with a lot of volume could not put Pereira out and a lot of the damage was avoided by Alex in the fight we cannot understimate the defense of alex based in his last fights because if we see in detail alex was defending very well all ofense just go to the overall stats and we can se that his opponents are that precise againts his
@@vietnamsemonky4082stone chin, uhh 🗿
Im excited for this fight but im much more excited for Holloway gaethje and Charles Olievera, I mean Charles hasn’t fought in like 10 months
Sick 10/10
Hill is a southpaw. Alex does not leg kick Southpaws that often. He goes high with his kicks. 😊
I’m excited. It’s just not what he hyped up the card to be.
this fight going to be an war i cant wait
What were people hoping for for 300? Conor vs Chandler? I know Conor is a draw and Chandler likes to throw down, with reckless abandon.. but I like this main event more, personally. What other champ vs #1 contender? Leon vs Belal? Makhachev vs Oliveira 2? Jones vs Stipe/Aspinall? DDP vs Izzy? I think you get the point.. Yeah, any of those fights woulda been great as well. But I don't think it diminishes the Caliber of this fight. If Jamal regains his title, it'll be a great comeback from a pretty awful injury. If Alex wins, maybe the LHW division will get stability that its been lacking since Jones moved to heavy weight. Though, I kinda like the chaos, instead of the king of the hill the LHW was accustomed to for so many years. Anyway. despite the hate for it (at least seemingly from what you were saying, I dont follow any of this crap on social media so Im not sure), I think this card is stacked and can't wait!
If there’s anyone who’s gonna come back better than ever it would be Jamahal, love to both fighters and may the best man win, I’m a big fan of both so I’m worried about the outcome no matter what😭
how is jiri on the prelims and bo nikals gimme fight is on the main card
Hill has a repaired achilles. Alex connects with that low kick a few times, and it may be a wrap
Do a vid on the max vs Justin fight the real main event
Jiri is on the prelims and Bo Nickal is on the main card? That's some straight up bullshit
Incredible.. anyway Alex by KO
Jamal won't land or counter on Alex to anywhere near the same efficiency. Alex's strikes are precise, diverse and bloody hurt and that makes people change course and fight in the uncomfortable whilst he stays in his comfort zone. Despite Jamal being a gamer, he gets his a lot and leaves his head open with his long-reaching straight rights where a staggered loaded hook could shut his lights out cold. ALEX has more ways to win
Hill by 2nd or 3rd round ko
i agree
This is geat matchmaking, it could really go either way, Periera is a deadly striker but i've seen him get caught and wobbled in a few fights and saved by the bell once or twice also, Jamal is so unorthodox in that southpaw stance, i dont think periera has to deal with something like that yet. one things for sure its a TKO not decision.
Y'all keep forgetting jammal is south paw he won't have to worry about the leg kicks as much
Honestly there is not a fight that you can make in the UFC right now that I am more excited for then Alex vs Jamahal
Bro, is this Kiyon Kimura?
idk i love alex and want him to win but......a straight power puncher with good timing against someone who keeps their hands down. It makes me anxious for alex
the main event was only a mild dissapointment because of all the hyped that Dana build on it
If Periera has improved his striking defense (keeping his chin up in close corridors) then I see him finishing Hill. Hill doesn’t check or avoid leg kicks, keeps his chin up; and he’s fresh off a torn Achilles.
Hill 2nd round ko
Don’t get me wrong Alex is a beast but leaves a lot of openings, if hill connects clean he can put him out
I think the only reason people weren't stoked at the 300 main event was because dana overhyped the event so getting a fight we knew we had coming that isn't crazy in scope or anything came to a lot of people as a disappointment. those people are silly
Agreed! Sure it isn’t the big McGregor fight people were expecting, but I was still hyped when I heard this fight was announced
@@nopuddingcups4360 I think fans would've been disappointed by anything that wasn't a crazy fight headlining, if it was a title defense for any champ besides maybe Islam v Oliveira they would've been salty
I like both these dudes so it should be a fun fight for me at least lol
He signed a new 8 fight deal cannot retire lel
And wants to fight at 301 in Brazil
I’m really interested in Rakic vs Prochazka besides Hill vs Periera
nahh i wanna see the izzy trilogy before alex retires
I think Alex will chop at the leg and keep his distance. It will be a boring fight in the 1st and maybe second round. Alex will incapacitate his leg and it would will lead to a tko. Jamal will blame the injury and ask for a rematch. 😅 P.S. Good content but what's with '80s love p0rn' background music?
I’m trying to understand why people hate on hill
🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
If Hill wasn't telegraphing that he thinks Pereira is a joke then I might take his chances more seriously, but he wasn't at an advantage to begin with. Pereira fought a stronger schedule to get to the LHW belt and he's a smarter, more experienced striker. Plus Hill is just off an injury. I don't think this one is mysterious tbh. Pereira by knockout in the first or second round.
No one doubts Jamal
It sucks hill coming off an ankle injury against the best leg kicker.
ALL theories fall when find the reality. Poatan is out of curve. He's impredictable, that's the point.
tonight proved that
C'mon everyone is excited for this just not on less than 55 days notice especially when hill has a horrid achilles injury......Dana made this fight last minute, itnwould be perfect for UFC 301
Recap inbound?
Sometime down the line!
@@StrikeSavvy fashooo how soon🔎
Well… you know what happened 😆 🥶
Alex chin is way too high !! I see an huge upset
If Hill wins and is still an Asshole abt it, I say we keep making fun of him, coz he ain't ever gonna stop being salty
He’s never an a hole
I think he just gets mad because ppl make it seem like he’s thrash
@@astroboy1207 woah woah you're not going along with a sheep band wagon? Thats not very mma fan like of you.
What do you expect when the whole world is literally against you
Good thing no one cares what you say😂
Babes at work but we still awake for this one
Your babe is actually getting her back blown out , "work" 💀
Chama!! 🗿🗿🗿
Hill said he plans to stand and strike with Alex if he do that he’s going out
Hill gonna beat his ass down like the others
@@BL77357 hello 👋
@@BL77357 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
The issue I see with trying to analyze this fight is the same problem I see with trying to analyze any Pereira fight:
He only needs one.
Just one.
The fact that he's ALSO one of the most technically skilled strikers active in the UFC just makes it even more unfair. Hill is an underrated fighter, but I expect it to go Pereira's way.
MMA math at its finest
❤
no one is talking about how fat Hill is now and how that might hold him back
I think a healthy Jamahal has a good chance at beating Alex. He’s capable of hitting Alex with nijja blitz at any time. But I also believe he isn’t fully healed and the UFC gave him a life changing amount of money he couldn’t refuse similar to Volk when he fought Islam
Everyone is picking Alex to win so every CZcamsr is either pretending they can’t predict a winner or picking Jamahal to win.
👍