The ULTIMATE Value Betting Strategy
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- Äas pĆidĂĄn 29. 03. 2023
- Everybody loves a good value bet...
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Disclaimer: Betting and Trading isn't for everyone and people can lose a lot of money. Please be careful.
great video, like smart guys as betting & trading is investing and no gambling
Great video, Kie. Fantastic analysis. The only thing I would have changed in your research was to compare the odds of the Frankfurt v Napoli game with the odds of previous UCL games. Nevertheless, great video & keep up the great content.
Hey mate nice vids! is there any possibility to backtest your strategies or backtest bet strategies in general? greetings
You man great video! How profitable are you with your correct score sheet ? How accurate is it per 10 games ?
A friend told me that they place a value bet up to seven days before the even start. Given that ideally you don't want the odds to drift after you've placed the bet how close to the event start do you recommend placing the bet?
Hard trying to pinpoint what odds should be, your right by saying use your knowledge on the sport you follow, I mostly follow horse racing but I see lots and lots of people just starting out trading going full on horse racing, all fail!! The main reason being they seem to think all horse races are the same , theyre not, a Maiden race is much different to a 2yr handicap race, yet people just go in blindly and put their money were the rest of the money goes, same with football I assume, identify what is likely to happen and maximise your profit.
What an amazing idea! More like investing, you have to critically consider every bit of information. Albeit this looks more successful if chosen team to back scores first.
+1, well said
Will you ever create a subscription service for tips?
Is there any good step by step course that teaches value betting?
Wouldn't good premium software do all of this for you though?
what a brilliant video.
Thanks Paul!
@KieMillett where did you find the probabilities to calculate the expected value at 20:48
@@KieMillettWhere did you find the probabilities to calculate the expected value at 20:48
Hi Kie,
Total score for april: +3,3 units
should it not be quite easy to create an software for all this?
What a refreshing take on betting and a much needed video. Great job I hope you keep posting more betting related content mate đ Good example with Frankfurt - Napoli. I had my money on Napoli as well in that game. Couldnât believe the price on the Italians when I saw it. Shouldnât have been much higher than 1,80 and thatâs even stretching it. I regret I didnât place a higher bet on them but thatâs easy to say now đ There is especially one that I totally agree with.
There are a lot of betters out there trying to figure out programs, different tools and searching for a specific model and so forth. Mate at the end of the day you got flesh and blood running around on the pitch and not robots. I understand this mechanical approach and trying to read stats and numbers etc. but football doesnât work like that otherwise we would all be rich by now. Of course those are important things but so are a lot of other things. Iâm not an expert or a pro by any means but Iâll tell you what. Here are some things that helped me make a lot more money than before. We gotta help each other get to the money.
1) Psychology & imagination. Cut out all the noise out there. Go 1 on 1 with the bookie. For me personally it was a psychological thing. I started to look at the bookie as my mate. Whenever my mate (the bookie) would misjudge a game then Iâm there to challenge him and make a profit out of his mistakes. That made me more competitive and hungry cause there is absolutely no way my mate is gonna win against me. Make up your own narrative and have fun with it. You will be surprised how far your imagination can take you if you use it correctly.
2) Patience! Wait for the value guys. If value bets came about every weekend we would all be living in Hollywood Hills right now. However when those value bets occur then you must be ruthless.
3) Motivation. An obvious one but easy to forget in the thick of it all. Is the team fighting to avoid relegation? Is the team close to a Champions League spot in the table? Has the team already won the league mathematically? Keep these things in mind cause they always affect the game.
4) Losing with dignity. How many times have we lost a bet and when that anger and frustration is building up inside you, thatâs when you make stupid mistakes to win it all back and lose all your money. I donât keep betting anymore when I lose like I used to do in total desperation. Here is my sentence every single time I lose: âWell done mate, you won this one. But itâs a marathon, not a sprintâ.
5) Be there like a hawk when the lines open before the odds drop too much. Before I used to place my bets maybe 2-3 days before kick off. Now itâs common for me to place my bets 1 or 2 weeks before. We want the best value and there is an enormous difference whether youâre playing 2,20 or 1,90 in the long run. But make sure you have an option to cash out if sudden suspensions or injuries to key players should happen.
Iâm sure there is a lot more but these things made a big difference for me personally. Letâs stick together and help each other get to the paper guys đ°
Great advice brother. Thank you đ
Mate can you show me how to find value bet
The Betfair odds are efficient.
Do you follow any tipsters ? Or do you pick all your bets yourself?
Pick all the bets myself
What is your opinion on matched betting? Is it as risk-free as advertised or no? Iâd love to see a video on that. Living in Belgium, it isnât easy to find bookmakers that are legal here. I already know your opinion on tipsters, there is a service called oddshero that supposedly helps you place the best bets and profit from bonuses and welcome bonuses too? What do you think about that? Iâm really looking into getting into sports betting but donât know where to start. As betting exchanges or brokerages, I only have access to ones like betinasia or sportsmarket, what so you think of those? And would you recommend exhausting matched betting first or is it possible to go to value betting directly using these brokerage platforms? Thank you so much in advance!
Long time mate
đđ It takes me a long time to edit videos.
How games did you place using this strategy??
Hundreds!
Nice videos and yes need genuine peaple to publish videos and I can see you are genuine but 'm gonna give you advice from person who pays premium charges , in future even if you have realy profitable strategy do not publish because if 2 or 10 peaple does it it will be ok but when will be 300 400 peaple I can telly will stop work the strategy
Let me give you tip for you study
Look at most over team on Premier league and most under team on primier and open the market get book and write the odds from the Min 1 to 90 whit open market and some bookies and write down all odds then after the game divide % per min and study that and do 20 games best way to become automatic in your head when there will be value price best way to learn
You are putting too much effort into finding an edge..imho..im sure you are winning/earning what you deserve to win for the amount of time/effort you put in..im also sure you are bright enough to find a simpler edge..they exist..good luck to you
Granted this video is quite complex but I wanted to make sure all of the information was in there. As I've been doing this a while though, I can now decide if a game is worth betting on in just a couple of minutes.
But you're 100% right, there are simpler edge's and there's endless strategies to be successful in this game: It's all about choosing the strategies which work best for you.
This "strategy" seems like a hell of a lot of work for what it is - if this happened in that league then this might happen in the champions league, blah, blah. I'm sorry Kie but this is perhaps the worst load of drivel I've heard in ages. Definitely will not be using itđą
I love how you explain things sir.i want to contact you directly
Es gibt keine Bet-Strategie,. nur eine Skala die zeigt, wie sĂŒchtig du bist.
comon man all this talking all this work
you must be joking and then at the end all goes wrong still. how much time it takes ?
how much money have you made 10 k with this?
đđđ
this is complete bull.
this is complete bull.
Yep