All-In Summit: Ray Dalio on the rise and fall of nations and the changing world order
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- čas přidán 18. 06. 2024
- This talk was recorded live at the All-In Summit 2023 at Royce Hall on UCLA's campus in Los Angeles.
(0:00) Besties welcome Ray Dalio to AIS!
(2:30) Debt, economic policy, war and peace, catastrophic events, and the decline of empires
(11:00) China, Plato, autocracies, and the changing world order
(17:30) Ray’s assessment of China’s assessment of the “big storm rising”
(23:20) “Radical disorder” over the next five years
(30:36) Is America a late-stage empire - and is decline inevitable?
(33:59) Reform, climate change, education, and the opportunity gap
(36:40) “A strong middle,” bipartisanship, and a Manhattan Project-style structural engineering project
(38:57) JCal’s call to action: President Dalio in the arena?
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/ chamath
linktr.ee/calacanis
/ davidsacks
/ friedberg
Follow the pod:
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linktr.ee/allinpodcast
Intro Music Credit:
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Intro Video Credit:
/ thezacheffect
Relevant links:
• Principles for Dealing...
www.economicprinciples.org/
www.principles.com/
Our preoccupation with the economy potentially crashing might be excessive. In reality, the economy undergoes cycles and typically recovers. Personally, I'm more focused on growing my investment portfolio than getting caught up in predictions. I've come across stories of people achieving substantial profits despite economic downturns. Do you have any tips on how they manage to do that?
In the realm of uncertainties, relying on one's own process, managing risks, and adhering to a steadfast plan is crucial. It's essential to stay committed through challenges and successes, all the while learning from mistakes and consistently striving for improvement.
Indeed, professionals continue to thrive in the current market due to their adept approach in generating profits and access to insider knowledge not available to the public. It underscores the advantage of having both a strategic approach and valuable insights in the ever-evolving market landscape.
The reason I find comfort in having a professional guide my market decisions, is their expertise in navigating both long and short positions, employing effective risk management and leveraging market experience. I've been relying on the guidance of John Desmond Heppolette for over 5 years, and during this time frame, I've successfully netted over $3 million.
I appreciate the kind response and of course, I'm willing to give this experience a try. I just discovered his exceptional resume when I made a research of his full names online. He appears knowledgeable and well accredited. I drop him a message and book a call session with him!
Bots talking to bots.
We need a full 3 hours podcast with Ray Dalio!
Agreed!
I think that 4 minute clip summarizes everything. No use talking about it without action
Ray doesn't mention the key point. All civilizations crumble. No exceptions....
that's not a scientific law@@gmw3083
@@gmw3083he is very biased towards China
Chamath always gives off short man energy so it's always a surprise to see how tall he is.
😂😂
Hahaha literally… Hi Chamath I know you’re reading this 😂👋🏽
Chamath: Median income is at 45k.. are people complaining too much that they don't have money?
Ray: i-i- um... hm.. there's a large wealth gap.
Sounds like you look down on short people 🤔 lol
What the hell is short man energy? What is big man energy? Never heard that turn of phrase
All-In Summit captures the excitement of the early days of TED. Great job, besties!
Ray could have at least got one of his servants to iron his oversized shirt
You should have a collaboration with the Moment of Zen podcast.
@@mikeoz4803he's probably comfortable with who he is and what he has, so it's JUST clothes to him.
absolutely
ted talks are literally just a way for nobodies to show off and make themselves seem important. expecially ted X talks.
The reason this pod is so so good is because of a finding common ground amongst the besties, ofc they have their own views but coming together and sharing such high quality intellectual discussions is a testament on its own! That’s the point i feel Mr. Ray Dalio was making here, it’s important to come together and be united on few common issues at the least! Can we also appreciate David Friedberg 🤩 for calling in some of the greatest intellects! Man never stops to disappoint, thanks for making this a great summit and also sharing it with the rest of the audience ✨
Friedberg is the most dangerous of them all. He is at best "science conversant" - kinda like a science reporter. Sacks is the best at breaking down complex issues, Chamath is second. This whole Ray Dalio thing is total bogus non-sense. His forecasts are so vague and long term that there is no way to prove or disprove him. US is like the Roman Empire - give me a f*****in break 🤣, there is a "great power struggle" brewing in the world - really ?? there is ALWAYS a great power struggle. The whole thing is so idiotic. And for Mr Dalio, for all the "Principles" - his fund blew up during covid (when he claims to have studied how diseases affect "rise and fall" of civilizations !
Always a revelation to hear Ray Dalio's opinions on tough topics. This dude has thought about these complex topics to depth. Love his articulation of his thoughts too.
Ya the dude is cool
Exactly. I felt the questions were so complex but he always manages to answer in a way where anyone listening can grasp what he means and nothing slips
It's been a rough year with losses from failed banks and government, real estate crashes, a struggling economy, and downturns in stocks and dividends. It feels like everything has been going wrong.
What a terrible year it is…
A financial professional you work with could really prepare you for life. I'm glad I was able to get in touch with my coach Samuel Peter Descovich earlier this year because I was actively cashing out from my portfolio and finally earned over 370k just in the first quarter while everyone else was complaining about the downturn.Samuel Peter Descovich helped pay down our debt and save up for retirement.
That is why I work with Samuel Peter Descovich, who introduced me to a better Financial community, a verified agency where I learned how money works and how to create it, as well as free books, courses, and daily lectures.
You also get to meet new people, which was the best decision I ever made.
Thank you so much for the advice. Your coach was simple to discover online. I did my research on him before I scheduled our phone call. he appears knowledgeable based on his online resume.
Samuel Peter Descovich is the go-to financial advisor during market turmoil. With his expertise, I made over $220K, revealing hidden market opportunities. Having an investment counselor is crucial, especially for those nearing retirement.
I found his extraordinary resume when I searched for his name on Google. I count it a gift that I went over this remark
When Ray hunches over to talk, you know he’s about to get in his Bag!!! Thank you David for making this happen. Sooo good
About to get in his bag you what
The very fact that Dalio is spending so much time and money getting his research out about these cycles proves that he has hope in our ability to conquer history.
Would love to see this conversation continued in longer form
Chammath is a smart guy but he has always been stubborn in his belief that there's infinite demand for US Treasury bonds 'relatively' speaking. Thanks Ray for showing us the pond from the fish tank
Thanks for sharing such high value with us for free!
@@zxcaaq🤣🤣🤣🤣
Mr. Dalio's conversation kept me on my toes. I am really grateful for closed captioning. There were times when the audio cut out and I had to follow along by reading the transcript. I am a "have not" with no malice toward the "haves." Life deals you a hand and you play it. Thank you for this summit. It has been wonderful!
Phenomenal content, I’m so thrilled to see this. I’m in the middle of Dalio’s Principles book, so seeing the All-in besties talking with him is a dream panel session
He is totally wrong about China, trust me on this one, ai am living here for 11 years. He knows it because he is still a businessman, he turning towards a India now if you noticed.
What if there's an internal faction that always runs up the debt and then runs off to the next country to be another internal faction?
@eblman5218 go put all your money on Chinese companies if u believe what this guy is saying.
@eblman5218did you see the episode with Gurley? He points out how innovative companies are basically participating in crony capitalism and the only way out is people to participate in democracy.
when jcal talks so quietly i cant even hear him speaking, it's such a relief
Very impressed that the besties had Dalio on stage. I really hope a proper longer form more in depth discussion happens soon. Sooner rather than later 🤞
2022 was a hell of a year, I have made $350,000 before taxes as the sole breadwinner and head of household. This is a great starting point and I’m very aware how blessed we are to be in this position, but I’m always looking ahead on how to improve.
I currently have $88K left in student loans (originally close to $150K) and very little credit card debt (less than $2K with more than $25K available). I have two auto loans totaling $170K for two electric vehicles at 5% interest. I will appreciate suggestions from anyone who has been in same shoes on how to go about them.
You may want to start somewhere different, like the snowball method, where you focus on one loan, usually the smallest one, and direct all of your resources to pay off that loan while maintaining payments on the others.
You want to work with a money coach or financial planner, although a financial planner will concentrate on long term, a money coach will help you with paying off all of your debts, maximize your cash flow and help you create systems and processes to direct your money proactively.
I have thought about this, but what is the major difference between a money coach & financial advsior?
A financial adviser could help too to create a more holistic plan for your money. They can assist you in the creation of both short and long-term goals and then help you by giving guidance on the financial decisions and opportunities you are presented with.
I’ve honestly been considering going the route of an advisor, this current market is no jokes for the average retail investor, but do they really make any notable changes to a portfolio or am I better off on my own?
I've been waiting for this one since i saw Chamath's post on X, and boy did you guys hit it out of the park! It really took off once Chamath stepped in, & Ray was just ultra intense. You guys are pure gems ❤
Fr fr fr browskiii it was so ULTRA intense I almost came Ultra bigly on my wall 😮
@@jimmaag4274 how did you know what my mommy calls me 🤨
This is perfect! Ray told Chammath exactly what I've been screaming through the comments!
It doesn't matter if China is going to collapse or if all the other t-shirts are dirtier. At some point the relative comparisons just doesn't cut it anymore. At some point the debt repayments are gonna be so high and the value of the denominator vs the actual things is going insanely asymmetric... The network effects are strong but there comes a point where even that breaks.
yea chamath has been harping on about relative debt ratios forever... at some point the house of cards collapses
i agree, but won't other countries break first? instead of framing it as a US problem, maybe we should be looking at it as a global problem (which is scary af)
@@user-un9sn4cv3b yea thats his point is that the US is still better off than these other countries
@@user-un9sn4cv3b i think in a global deleveraging pain will be felt in all countries. and people will be dumping currencies of all kinds for hard assets
That's where the deleveraging process comes in. Both the US and China have huge debt loads, both mostly denominated in their own currency so neither can go bankrupt. However the debts are configured in different ways and managed by different levels of governments. American debt is mostly created thru fiscal deficit by the federal government, where the government's treasury department issues bonds to make up for the gap between fiscal income and spending. Chinese debt is largely borne by local governments thru local financing vehicles thru which they sell land for fiscal income; large corporations being highly leveraged, particularly in the property sector, also adds significantly to the overall debt load. Both nations have their own advantages and disadvantages when it comes to engineering a deleveraging process. The US has the advantage of directly or indirectly sharing the debt load with the world thru the global dollar system and major nations and funds purchasing Treasury bonds. China has the advantage of having a high savings rate and a centralized government in enacting new supply-side policies to govern the debt. As for who's dealing with their problem better, the currency exchange rate could tell a story or two.
This is fucking gold ! I’d love to meet these guys one day- listening to you guys helps understand and make sense of things and learn some things. Thanks for doing this type of show and keeping it real. From one line to another a person needs the guidance.
Listen to Ray Dalio is like watching a great sermon…thank you so much for putting a great submit…
Chinese stooge
Ray Dalio! This conversation alone must make all the hours spent building All-In worth it.. well done boys. top notch. the world needed this
Love Ray Dalio. A true leader who is sharing his insights but also uses diplomacy to unify Americans.
The best thing to come out of All In.
What a colorful conversation at a deeply needed time, thank you gents.
Incredible. Thanks for posting this!
freedom should be free! No one should have to pay for food, water, clothing, shelter, and education.
Thank you for all your hard work!
A national treasure; a great mind, wonderfully articulate; clear concise thinking, thank you Ray for all your gifts, thoughts and ideas. We are lucky to have you! All the Best,
I love Ray, and he deserves respect for what he has accomplished. But he is out of his prime time 🥲
NYT recently published a piece on Dalio, on how the senior execs at the firm had begun to doubt his investment acumen and judgments in recent years.
Always love a Ray.. having it on All In is a Blessing 🙏
So clear on what changes we need to make to restore this country to what it should be. Had to hold back the tears as I don't see how this country continues to be a better place for my children given the path we are on. I have a young son and I fear so much that he will someday become a sacrifice to the war lords we have here in the US and other countries. Please let's find the president that will lead us into peace and prosperity for all of us. I especially loved how he pointed out that the countries that stayed neutral fared the best. Countries need to stand on their own feet and not depend on the US. This approach of being the policemen of the world will just motivate more weak countries to depend on the US for their protection instead of maintaining their own protection.
Speaking truth!!! Ray is a legend and thanks guys for getting him to clarify the problem and the solution. "String middle that reverseve engineer the solutions to the biggest problems." Why Vivek has a role in this game.
Ray is one of the smartest individuals I've ever heard both in his understanding of economic principles and how world powers come to be/remain. We can all learn a lot more from him than any professor or youtube personality.
I love the clip comparing the great empires. Great job of explaining a complicated topic and giving us the opportunity of a bigger picture view!
I'm looking forward to him joining them for the podcast, so the conversation can keep going!
Excellent show and awsome guest! Very informative, Ty all!
Thanks All in one, Ray Dalio and the other speakers!
You guys thoughtfully challenged Ray, esp Sacks, which brought his points to life in a way I’ve never seen in other pods. Great job guys - the standing o said it all!
MAY GOD BLESS YOU RAY DALIO ✝️🙏🙌👏💙💚❤️💛.
Amazing conversation! Thank you all!
Great talk. Appreciated hearing his perspective.
David Sachs made a great point about a large part of populism being attributed to failed leadership. Political reform needs to happen. Ro Khanna made great suggestions during his talk of changes that need to happen.
Unrelated, but I have an observation and possible contradiction to the theory presented:
Education can be supercharged through technological innovation (access to information, cheap access to internet via Chromebooks, etc). I see education as two pieces: access information and critical application of the information.
The internet is a huge equalizer in terms of access to information. How do we account for this?
I understand that there have been previous technology changes that have impacted education (eg: printing press) but the internet is on a different level.
Side note: I see huge potential in consolidating our K-12 education curriculum/resources to something that operates at the federal level (with huge leveraging of technology). This would equate to less fragmentation and duplicated effort.
I blame the fact that the government doesn't abide by the laws of capitalism and operates more like a failing business as an explanation on why this unified federal level initiative hasn't already happened.
I also see immense value in investing more into high school vocational tech programs (HVAC, collision repair, welding, etc). Training at mass scale on important trades would likely yield great results in building a healthier middle class.
As for the higher education system, I see it as a massive grift to both students and to taxpayers. A massive part of the system should be dismantled.
Ray is truly brilliant.
Recommend reading The Fourth Turning and the more recent follow-up book as a companion to Ray Dalio’s talk as they dovetail nicely and explain a lot about cycles and why we don’t seem them at the micro level and why they are obvious at the macro.
Just added to my audible list, thanks to a random comment on the internet.
@@swish6143 There is a newer version "The Forth Turning is here" by one of the two authors (the other sadly passed). It's a great view on the current cycle 30 years after the original, with enough of the base theory to get all the big ideas from the first.
Such a great panel. Thanks for sharing!
Brilliant Question by Sachs! (at 33:48). Thank you for asking this!!!
That video was the clearest description that I have seen of a truly complex situation. Bravo and also OH SHIT.
Would like to hear more discourse on the issue of relative strength and how it’s not necessary to have an alternate currency to which to pivot away from the declining currency/empire. Glad Chamath asked this question, but would like to hear some more depth to that discussion point
Our besties are making moves. 100K+ views in less than 15 hours. The impact these convos have is enormous.
It’s funny to see how the podcasters’ questions are so high in vocabulary or just complex for an average person but the answers that Ray Dalio gives are so easy to understand, articulate and clear.
Amazing content as always guys. You all had some amazing guests 🚀💯
Amazing how many people they fool about what authoritarianism is actually
Thanks for this speaker! Great insights!
RAY DALIO IS ONE OF THE GREATEST
Very interesting and informative! I have Dalio’s book and always find his ideas fascinating and well researched. He is a blessing to America!
Dalio is so diplomatic in his answer about China and India. Only few of us who have travelled to both countries understand this.
Great talk! Thanks for sharing.
Fantastic to get ray dalio to the summit
This is really great work gentlemen! Very informative!
Loved it! Thank you Ray 🙏
Fantastic and sobering interview. The only candidate with the intellectual horsepower to start the reform and engineered changes that Dalio describes is Vivek imo. Hope that becomes clear to more people over the next year
My all-timed favourite podcast. Thank you from New Zealand
David’s leadership nailed it this year 👏
Was super looking forward to this!
Haha awesome JCal intro excitement with Dalio joining.
I’m looking forward to the 3 hour version of this pod follow-up with Dalio in case that happens.
Amazing, we need more people like Ray. sidenote can Ray buy an NBA team for Seattle thanks Ray!
Fantastic talk!
Always refreshing listening to Ray Dalio
Ray bringing the baggy look back. Great session.
Thank you for sharing such important information ℹ️
Ray is the 🐐
what a man! thank you all❤
This talk needed to be at least an hour, he was just getting warmed up on some of the questions.
Ray Dalio, you're brilliant and the best.
For the love of freedom ray please run for president
I wish Chamath spoke up more since his relative investment question was the real critique of Dalios theory. Too much time agreeing with the Dalio rather than getting insight via testing the thesis
The conversation is incredibly intriguing from start to finish.
Ray is legend 🎉
Wow. Amazing conversation!
Ray is an intellectual powerhouse. It's a shame people like him aren't leading US politics. Instead we have clowns
😂😂😂 for real
@@xps1997 China is likely a better country. Have you seen the "culture" in the US?
@@xps1997 The Chinese loves making money. Washing dishes makes 20$ an hour in californa vs 3$ at a factory. Grind for 10 years and go back home to a villa.200k at facebook or 40k in China.
@@xps1997 look around america, everyone hates every other group lol Suburbs are boring as hell, cities are dangerous. 40% of the population has to do drugs to feel happy
What a great talk! I learned so much.
I would 100% vote for dalio as president
Ray Dalio 2024!!!! To the Arena!!!
I will vote for Ray
A bunch of smart sensible people having an intelligent conversation
Wow wow wow , what an incredible show this time! Ray Dalio for President!!
I think it's pretty clear that some of his policies would only hasten the decline.
This is great, but you all still need to read the book. It's unbelievably hard (impossible, really) to convey the depth of these topics in this interview format.
David Sacks asking the hard questions lets go baby! United we stand divided we fall!
Unity is the most important thing in life. Unity doesn’t mean no variation, the Unity came from love will strengthen , the unity came from forces will sadly divide.
Inspiring.
Great analysis that went completely off the rails at [34:00]. It amazes me that someone can identify the problem of structural overspending and then propose centralizing reforms.
I understand and can appreciate your comment. IMO, Dalio was proposing more of a think tank solution, ie if they come up with decentralizing fiscal spending then go with it. The key is that he was proposing a bipartisan group to do this. I don’t think you can’t question the efficacy of his solution given the history of bipartisan commissions and their results, but i think he is speaking from a place of best case scenario and what it would look like, whether that is an achievable aim, i think he thinks its not, that’s why he thinks the US is dying.
Amazing!!! 👏👏👏
I'll write in Ray Dalio!
Brilliant. Thank you.
BESTIES KILLING IT
Upvotes as large as Rays shirt 👕
Some good insights,
Enjoyed that.
What an amazing interview thank you
Absolute gold! Ray Dalio is a fountain of wisdom
Brilliant to have Ray on. I think the team was a tad too nice and polite. In saying that Ray isn’t wrong. Most critics of China have never even been to China. Everything people learn is via media etc
To have an honest and open view you must be a world traveller and expose to multiple countries with an open mind on their systems.
Look at parts of Europe it shows trends and possibilities of empires like US in future…UK has already followed.
You don't think US is on a decline?
Dalios last ten minutes or so really brought everything together. Home run !
Shout out to JCal..Dalio for President!!