One of the major differences between the ‘upcoming recession’ and the ones prior is the majority of people are aware that a recession is around the corner, which is automatically priced in the stock market, which ultimately lowers the chances of a recession being near. I’m expecting the economy to go sideways, mostly flat with low-amplitude up and downs for the next 5 years
How did you determine that stock market is already priced in due to the anticipated upcoming recession? What specific ratio or factors did you look at?
Great video, i'm sure it'll go viral soon. In my very limited opinion, i'm a firm proscriber to the fed punch bowl analogy / pendulum theory = real low unemployment , translates to real inflation, that translates into real interest rate hike, which translates into real depressions. two explanations for phenomenonal elusive correction is; A) majority of people, companies, government hasn't recovered from last correction. no savings, massive debt, dead end jobs, no free cash. and B) government keeps giving the market sugar highs.... So the pendulum is swinging back and when the government can't afford more sugar high, and the interest rate creeps up to the point of critical mass. people will get the correction they expected.
Lets say you have two groups of students who train differently and you wanted to know if the groups are different with respect to their 40 yard dash times based on their training methods. In statistics - you want to know if the difference between the groups is statistically different - if they are the results are essentially more reliable ( less likely to be an erroneous conclusion)
People need to understand deflation will be short, this is the "Action". The Government will provide the "Reaction" via MMT, then Hyperinflation will start..
With all due respect - I am not sure of the methods used in the forecast. In 1900 horse sales were very good and then economist saw horse inventory building up - as automobile sales began and increased. So those that used historical horse inventory in their method of predicting economics sort of missed the bigger picture. As we move from the "industrial age" into the "post industrial age," there are some big paradigm shifts taking place. Real estate prices have been going up - not as a factor of individuals being able to afford them but due to REITS, Foreign Land Banking and possibly money laundering. So the decline in prices might not be due to individual sentiment but ...
CZcams his video from 2008. He sounded the same alarm and called a recession that year... we all know what happened september 2008. The data he uses is very good. All the respect to this professor for calling it last time. I hear the counter argument: Everyone saw the last recession coming in 2008. Oh really? Is that why everyone was spending and buying like the party was never gonna end?? Most people didnt see 2008 coming.
Good information. This is why have been buying BITCOIN as a hedge against recessions. It's already had its downturn in 2018, network is to cut supply in 2020 and Pensions, Gov't and as well as individuals should be buying Bitcoin in my opinion! You will thank me in 2022.
Diversification. Physical gold silver n bitcoin. Bought all 3 at their lows so far paying off wait till fed cuts rates to zero n goes negative like the rest of the world. All these will explode n bitcoin is far more scarce only 18 million. 3M have been lost
My local bank said they dramatically tightened sub-prime exposure back in early Q1. I’m not sub prime, so I asked why and she told me they were currently “overexposed to subprime auto loans” That is what made my alarm bells go off about a coming recession. Made me think about what our national deficit would look like if something a bit worse than 2009 came along...might see $3 trillion deficits for three consecutive years? Imagine adding $9T rapidly to our $22T debt. That’s nearly 50% increase...and at some point, the books will get hard to cook.
There will be debt monetization meaning that the the Fed will create new money in form of a bond of the Treasury that will not have to be paid back effectively... There are many ways to achieve this but it will result in high inflation. Will be interesting times (stagflationary environment) at some point if this just keeps on goinf
@@karlheven8328 I've been thinking about the Fed buying the treasuries and holding them and then simply cancelling them. I think this could be done and have zero inflation but it may "get old" with those who hold treasuries outside of the Fed at some point. But I'm guessing they could print and cancel a trillion without breaking a sweat and have no real inflation, because they create as much as they cancel out... Just thinking out loud.
It’s impossible to use past data sets to discern the next recession, its timing or its amplitude. Never before has the world entered the closing session of an economic cycle with hyper debt. This won’t be a recession like any other.
We just cant expect a recession like 2008, the greatest economic downturns since the great depression. A part of this is human nature and paranoia. What is our most recent memory? 2008. I just found a video on youtube recorded by this professor august 2008 warning of a recession sounding the alarm... what happened later that month? My respects to this man for calling the deepest secession since the great depression in 2008. Look it up.
Chris G I watched it. He’s good. I saw your comment. In the end, the FED will never reign in the out of control sectors, especially when you have a president like Bush was, who wants to stoke it like mad.
@@aaronsullivan1628 You have a point. I think the next 13-14 months leading up to the elections are gonna be fascinating. Not because of who's gonna win but because of the economic headwind we see ahead: Trade tensions, rates being cut to stimulate, rumored tax cuts next year, etc.
Take a look around Jeff. Earnings reports coming in below expectations, Bond market 10 year treasury is below 2%, etc. It already starting to slowdown. t's just a matter of how deep/long and how bad it will be. Only time will tell. Nobody knows.
It might be a bad idea to think markets will continue to go higher and higher for ever.. eventually the qe money will not be able to push the markets higher until the markets correct (crash) and restart the accumulation phase.... like he said.. cash is king.. that time will come un announced for the average investor.. markets go down way quicker as compared to going upwards.
Jairo Gutierrez bitcoin is a huge gamble. It’s not king. 5% of my net worth is in bitcoin bc I believe it could explode, but if you think bitcoin is a sure thing, someone’s deceiving you.
@@davidhodge8509 Also, learned lately that the depreciation rate of bitcoin is about 5% per year (consider that computing power storage cost of maintaining the coin's algos).
@@davidhodge8509 some people think the stock market is a huge gamble, and if you play it without knowledge it is, but only those that know what they are doing end up winning, all fiat currencies in history ended up with a value of 0, because of unsustainable governments, with 22 trillion of debt, a debt ceiling that is increased every quarter, and interest rates about to hit 0 again, if you think bitcon is a gamble, probably it is to you, but those that know what they are doing will end up winning.
Jairo Gutierrez please explain. Bitcoin is only one currency who’s value with either go up or down. The stock market is made up of thousands of companies so many people who try to buy/sell specific stocks at the right time end up losing. But bitcoin is pretty straightforward... it’ll go up or it’ll go down over time. Are you saying people in the know are timing the bitcoin market by buying/selling at the right times?
triparoundearth 5000 years of human behavior would disagree with you and big money moving into precious metals. Also, we have had 3200 fiat currencies all went to zero and we still used gold and silver as money because they fit all the requirements for money
I trade you 2 bricks of .22LR, 4 blankets, 2 dogs, and a lame pony, eat the pony, feed guts to dogs, eat dogs later, I know the girl is young and skinny, but I will make her fat in winter. The currency of the realm is 500 rounds of .22LR, (a Brick). "What you can't buy with Gold & silver, you can take with Lead"
Thomas Headley stock market doesn't follow the law of nature. What you said is the same as what comes up must come down as the law of gravity, law of thermal dynamic in your case, adding more heat will eventually make water reach the boiling point. This is not so in human driven motives economic system.
Thomas Headley There is always a limited quantity in nature for everything. That's why we have the conservation law of nature. The entire Universe is enclosed, nothing new can be created out of nothing, only transform one form to another. The law of nature stay that way. In human economic system, they can conjure up idea such as currency, they can print unlimited amount of it. Money will continue to lose value slowly, the equity market will keep going up to readjust inflation. Gold will remain low due to less demand and less common practical application. What else can gold be used for that other type of abundant metal can't be substituted for?
Reduce debt. Good advice for an economy with the highest public and private debt on record.
Some people instill a sense of confidence in their prognostications; this man does this. Very well thought out concepts, supported by credible data.
Why no mention of student loan defaults and record level of auto loans in default?
It just doesn’t factor in the same way a housing loan defaults would
Could change
@Thomas Headley "The government" equates to the u.s. taxpayer.
@Thomas Headley can you explain please?
@Richard Dixon why can they not?
One of the major differences between the ‘upcoming recession’ and the ones prior is the majority of people are aware that a recession is around the corner, which is automatically priced in the stock market, which ultimately lowers the chances of a recession being near. I’m expecting the economy to go sideways, mostly flat with low-amplitude up and downs for the next 5 years
How did you determine that stock market is already priced in due to the anticipated upcoming recession? What specific ratio or factors did you look at?
@@wglknr listen to Ken Fischer, talks on YT. he explains how wall street already priced in recession and 3 interest rate cuts for 2019
@@wglknr Good question! I think he's just making the assumption of efficiency and market rationality here.
ur gonna get rekt
Stock markets have always priced in recessions--about 5 months before they happened. That has never prevented one yet.
Great video, i'm sure it'll go viral soon. In my very limited opinion, i'm a firm proscriber to the fed punch bowl analogy / pendulum theory = real low unemployment , translates to real inflation, that translates into real interest rate hike, which translates into real depressions. two explanations for phenomenonal elusive correction is; A) majority of people, companies, government hasn't recovered from last correction. no savings, massive debt, dead end jobs, no free cash. and B) government keeps giving the market sugar highs.... So the pendulum is swinging back and when the government can't afford more sugar high, and the interest rate creeps up to the point of critical mass. people will get the correction they expected.
and of course a democrat will have to clan up the mess and take the blame..... cue Bernie Sanders or Kamala Harris... maybe Warren
What are the suggestions to prepare for the upcoming recession? I am retired, and NO DEBT, what do you suggest?
buy gold, bitcoin, and assets (real estate) that will bring in residual income
Get some debt dude! Tap out and hold
Sears, IKEA, Deutsche, GNC, GM, Ford, Nissan, Payless, Unicredit...
Can someone please explain with other words the calculation and meaning of the statistical difference with previous expansions (at 11:30)?
Thank you
Lets say you have two groups of students who train differently and you wanted to know if the groups are different with respect to their 40 yard dash times based on their training methods. In statistics - you want to know if the difference between the groups is statistically different - if they are the results are essentially more reliable ( less likely to be an erroneous conclusion)
People need to understand deflation will be short, this is the "Action". The Government will provide the "Reaction" via MMT, then Hyperinflation will start..
Deep
Don't worry, act.
With all due respect - I am not sure of the methods used in the forecast. In 1900 horse sales were very good and then economist saw horse inventory building up - as automobile sales began and increased. So those that used historical horse inventory in their method of predicting economics sort of missed the bigger picture. As we move from the "industrial age" into the "post industrial age," there are some big paradigm shifts taking place. Real estate prices have been going up - not as a factor of individuals being able to afford them but due to REITS, Foreign Land Banking and possibly money laundering. So the decline in prices might not be due to individual sentiment but ...
CZcams his video from 2008. He sounded the same alarm and called a recession that year... we all know what happened september 2008. The data he uses is very good. All the respect to this professor for calling it last time. I hear the counter argument: Everyone saw the last recession coming in 2008. Oh really? Is that why everyone was spending and buying like the party was never gonna end?? Most people didnt see 2008 coming.
Good information. This is why have been buying BITCOIN as a hedge against recessions. It's already had its downturn in 2018, network is to cut supply in 2020 and Pensions, Gov't and as well as individuals should be buying Bitcoin in my opinion! You will thank me in 2022.
Bitcoin as hedge against recessions?! LOL, are you in for a surprise.... Unbelievable
@@albowrx He is just trying to promote the shit.
I agree. If you're truly forward- thinking and educated.... you would as well
Diversification. Physical gold silver n bitcoin. Bought all 3 at their lows so far paying off wait till fed cuts rates to zero n goes negative like the rest of the world. All these will explode n bitcoin is far more scarce only 18 million. 3M have been lost
I love it when CZcams commenters pretend to know more about economics than an economics professor.
It's very possible that they do
My local bank said they dramatically tightened sub-prime exposure back in early Q1. I’m not sub prime, so I asked why and she told me they were currently “overexposed to subprime auto loans” That is what made my alarm bells go off about a coming recession. Made me think about what our national deficit would look like if something a bit worse than 2009 came along...might see $3 trillion deficits for three consecutive years? Imagine adding $9T rapidly to our $22T debt. That’s nearly 50% increase...and at some point, the books will get hard to cook.
There will be debt monetization meaning that the the Fed will create new money in form of a bond of the Treasury that will not have to be paid back effectively...
There are many ways to achieve this but it will result in high inflation.
Will be interesting times (stagflationary environment) at some point if this just keeps on goinf
@@karlheven8328 I've been thinking about the Fed buying the treasuries and holding them and then simply cancelling them. I think this could be done and have zero inflation but it may "get old" with those who hold treasuries outside of the Fed at some point. But I'm guessing they could print and cancel a trillion without breaking a sweat and have no real inflation, because they create as much as they cancel out... Just thinking out loud.
Karl Heven 100 Bond perhaps...
If we know about in scale more than likely won't happen
It’s impossible to use past data sets to discern the next recession, its timing or its amplitude. Never before has the world entered the closing session of an economic cycle with hyper debt. This won’t be a recession like any other.
We just cant expect a recession like 2008, the greatest economic downturns since the great depression. A part of this is human nature and paranoia. What is our most recent memory? 2008. I just found a video on youtube recorded by this professor august 2008 warning of a recession sounding the alarm... what happened later that month? My respects to this man for calling the deepest secession since the great depression in 2008. Look it up.
Chris G Do you have a link.
@@aaronsullivan1628 m.czcams.com/video/d9y_de-pJ8o/video.html
Chris G I watched it. He’s good. I saw your comment. In the end, the FED will never reign in the out of control sectors, especially when you have a president like Bush was, who wants to stoke it like mad.
@@aaronsullivan1628 You have a point. I think the next 13-14 months leading up to the elections are gonna be fascinating. Not because of who's gonna win but because of the economic headwind we see ahead: Trade tensions, rates being cut to stimulate, rumored tax cuts next year, etc.
we have covered hyperinflation . your cash will be nothing that time
June is gone no recession. July 1st the market is to the sky. Dow will be 30k by next month
Russia and China are buy gold at record rates. The wheels are starting to fall off the dollar as a reserve currency...
Take a look around Jeff. Earnings reports coming in below expectations, Bond market 10 year treasury is below 2%, etc. It already starting to slowdown. t's just a matter of how deep/long and how bad it will be. Only time will tell. Nobody knows.
It might be a bad idea to think markets will continue to go higher and higher for ever.. eventually the qe money will not be able to push the markets higher until the markets correct (crash) and restart the accumulation phase.... like he said.. cash is king.. that time will come un announced for the average investor.. markets go down way quicker as compared to going upwards.
Deutsche bank is collapsing
Buying stocks at this time is a suicide... We got everything we need for a recession
Mastodon1976 I know I’m just being sarcastic
Find a new camera person. Zoom in on charts. Not on speaker. Ughhhhh
..put it back into the economies
Probably why theres no deal brexit...no evidence of who didnt pull their weight, yet
Thank you very much.
Not Stonks
Nothing normal is happening with this economy! Please get real !!!!!!
cash is king.. hhmm
Value of cash is based on trust and not backed by anything so I wouldn´t agree.
@Rabble Repository Agree. Cash = Money = Debt.
Cash is not king, Bitcoin is king!
Jairo Gutierrez bitcoin is a huge gamble. It’s not king. 5% of my net worth is in bitcoin bc I believe it could explode, but if you think bitcoin is a sure thing, someone’s deceiving you.
Rabble Repository no FMV is around $10k.
@@davidhodge8509 Also, learned lately that the depreciation rate of bitcoin is about 5% per year (consider that computing power storage cost of maintaining the coin's algos).
@@davidhodge8509 some people think the stock market is a huge gamble, and if you play it without knowledge it is, but only those that know what they are doing end up winning, all fiat currencies in history ended up with a value of 0, because of unsustainable governments, with 22 trillion of debt, a debt ceiling that is increased every quarter, and interest rates about to hit 0 again, if you think bitcon is a gamble, probably it is to you, but those that know what they are doing will end up winning.
Jairo Gutierrez please explain. Bitcoin is only one currency who’s value with either go up or down. The stock market is made up of thousands of companies so many people who try to buy/sell specific stocks at the right time end up losing. But bitcoin is pretty straightforward... it’ll go up or it’ll go down over time. Are you saying people in the know are timing the bitcoin market by buying/selling at the right times?
he left out death from health, sick and recovery
₿uy ₿itcoin, bye banks.
I laughed about "cash is king" comment. Precious metals are always king in a collapse.
triparoundearth 5000 years of human behavior would disagree with you and big money moving into precious metals. Also, we have had 3200 fiat currencies all went to zero and we still used gold and silver as money because they fit all the requirements for money
I trade you 2 bricks of .22LR, 4 blankets, 2 dogs, and a lame pony, eat the pony, feed guts to dogs, eat dogs later, I know the girl is young and skinny, but I will
make her fat in winter.
The currency of the realm is 500 rounds of .22LR, (a Brick).
"What you can't buy with Gold & silver, you can take with Lead"
He looks like those losers who are regulars at some cheap brothel.
now we are in august 2019. we are in a recession. forget the lies
Just stop forcasting already. It will never happen if you keep guessing the future.
Thomas Headley stock market doesn't follow the law of nature. What you said is the same as what comes up must come down as the law of gravity, law of thermal dynamic in your case, adding more heat will eventually make water reach the boiling point. This is not so in human driven motives economic system.
Thomas Headley There is always a limited quantity in nature for everything. That's why we have the conservation law of nature. The entire Universe is enclosed, nothing new can be created out of nothing, only transform one form to another. The law of nature stay that way. In human economic system, they can conjure up idea such as currency, they can print unlimited amount of it. Money will continue to lose value slowly, the equity market will keep going up to readjust inflation. Gold will remain low due to less demand and less common practical application. What else can gold be used for that other type of abundant metal can't be substituted for?