How Trump Uses Confirmation Bias & Declinism to Gain A Cultlike Following
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- čas přidán 5. 06. 2024
- We all have a caveman brain-at least when it comes to navigating the internet. Amanda Montell, author of the new book The Age of Magical Overthinking, joins Offline to explain how the “cognitive biases” that we developed to make snap decisions in prehistoric times aren’t well suited to handle the volume and pace of the information era. She and Jon talk about biases like the halo effect, zero-sum biases, and declinism, and identify how these biases have supercharged celebrity fandom, influenced our news media, and made Democrats nostalgic for the George W. Bush era.
CHAPTERS
0:00 - Intro
1:35 - Cognitive Bias
6:10 - Taylor Swift cult
12:07 - Trump cult
32:03 - Information overload
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#trump #republicans #taylorswift
I can admit that I was one of the people riding the Trump train back in 2016. After seeing his presidency and the overturning of Roe, even as a man I knew how wrong it was. Then you have J6, which was insane. Put all that together and it seemed logical for me to switch to the other side. Am I completely happy with the policies? No but that can be debated.
Thank you. I agree. Policy can be debated. Trump doesn't have a policy other than self advancement, and he does not debate that.
Yep, with Joe there can be debate, but under an aspiring authoritarian dictator like Trump there is no debate.
That's great! Not for not being on board with trump but bc I love when people are free from being stuck for one reason or another and it shows critical thinking to be able to evaluate❤
@FlockOfDeaglesGG there are so many people who aren't self aware or mature enough to recognize a mistaken belief, let alone so completely & dramatically change course. That's an incredible gift. Thank & bless you for choosing country over stubborn political pride. We need everyone to recognize the democracy destroying danger a 2nd 45 term will mean for this country. I used to believe myself to be a moderate Democrat but the crazier & more radicalized the right became, the further liberally left I realized I actually was. While I don't believe in Socialism, I am a Pro-Choice Catholic who in my heart believes abortion to be a sin so I would never have 1, but I also firmly believe that it is NOT my right to tell any other woman what she can & can't do with HER BODY!! I believe that love is love regardless of sexual orientation. I believe that if we have the means & the ability, that it is our moral responsibility to help those in need without judgement or expectation that by doing so they owe me loyalty or a single thing. Thank you again for sharing your revelation. It truly gives me hope ❤️🤍💙
Great! So important to value the debate (democracy)💙
We have been in collective PTSD since 2016-whenever I get despondent I hear a young intelligent person and get some respite about the present and future. Thank you
Yes, I have/am experiencing the same.
Well said!!
Same here.🖖
For me it's since 9/11/01... but agree
My finances have been in PTSD since 2020.
Bring back the orange man.
She is well spoken. Good guest for this episode.
This was one of the most interesting interviews in the offline series, IMHO. As someone who tries to question my own biases, learning all the different ways our brains can trick us is fascinating.
"SAPIENS" a demand to read.
Her comment about time at 21:45 was really similar to a quote from Emperor Turhan: "The past tempts us, the present confuses us, and the future frightens us. And our lives slip away, moment by moment, lost in that vast terrible in-between. But there is still time to seize that one last fragile moment, to choose something better. To make a difference..."
Yeah... If I'm being completely honest with myself my return to Catholicism has a lot to do with idealizing my grandparents who were German American Catholic farmers back in the fifties. Maybe when everything for crazy I felt like you know if we all just went to Mass together then maybe everything will be ok.
"Compassion for other people's irrationalities and skepticism of my own."
That's a really good way of looking at things.
Just started watching this video, and Jon's description of the book made me run to Audible and purchase a "copy." Amanda seems like an intelligent woman, and the topic is very "now." Great content, Jon, thanks for being a sensible voice in the cacophony of Trumpy brain farts.
Worth watching twice.
Thank you for your intelligent content. I personally am so grateful for your thoughtful presentation of the news of the day. I no longer trust corporate/ legacy media, with a few exceptions. That is why your contribution is so important! TRUTH is hard to find, and I am far from an expert on everything! Please recognize that you are an essential part of a healthy democracy ! 💙💙💙💙💙💙
There was a critical breaking point in our culture that came somewhere around the 70s-80s, with the advent of cable, which we used to naively call "pay tv".
Up to that point, we had networks who had committed to funding the news as a profit-loss endeavor that was paid for by profits from entertainment.
These were corporations that actually agreed to spend profit on the news, because it was an important public service.
Nowadays Boeing won't even spend their profits on making planes.
At that point, it was decided that news was just another form of entertainment, and it would have to survive in the profit it generated.
So if important news want entertaining enough to get people to watch it, it wouldn't even be broadcast.
News was once considered to be so important that it was above capitalism.
Then we decided that NOTHING can be above capitalism.
Now we have Fox News, and all the rest.
We let capitalists like Rupert Murdoch destroy our society so they could be super-rich, because there's nothing more important.
FOX Entertainment, sarcastically called "FOX News" is the cancer that was allowed to metastasize and infect the media.
See, the Fairness Doctrine trashed by Ronnie Baby during his admin... praised later (it's demise) by Bill O'Reilley of foXXXX Snooze.
When our source of info comes from a tainted well our body politic gets sick.
👍 to your point.
They spent profits on the news because in order to maintain their broadcasting license they had to provide news as a service and there were strict rules around the finance people talking to the news people.
And around that time, news outlets 'reported' the news. Now, news outlets are more interested in 'making' the news. It's a 24 hour thing where constant content is needed.
Old Ronnie Raygun again. The downfall of America started with the a-hole actor.
More cognitive science and social psychology, please! An excellent guest.
Yay! Amanda is excellent. So happy to see her on Offline!
This conversation was delightful and I am looking forward to Amanda's Magical Overthinking podcast.
I wish more people had an honest interest in psychology.
Right, because if everyone had a healthy interest in psychology, this would be a banal and not surprisingly insightful presentation. But kudos to her, because educating the ignorant is worthy and never-ending work.
“Cognitive biases” explains a lot of things. I think I need to read a lot more of your stuff. Please rest assured I will.
Self-awareness helps a lot But we have to be willing to look at ourselves
Unfortunately, Trump sends a sign from the highest office that only losers waste time on self-reflection. We were already in an era when few wanted to take personal responsibility for their actions, but Trump turbocharged that. I worry for the kids who are growing up right now.
“There comes a time when a man must look at himself in the mirror, to judge himself instead of waiting to be judged by others.” -Suits
Introspection is for commies.
Yes, liberals really do need to look at themselves.
If we can get out of survival (ego) mode, I think it's possible to know what's a lie. My narcissistic mother would repeat lies and accusations (projection) at me, and I told her, " Just because you keep repeating it doesn't make it true"
She was flabbergasted.
Think with your "higher self," not with your ego.
Getting a good laugh about parents wanting to be with you at events that you don't want to go to. I am 78 and my mom died in 2023 at 101, with most of her cognitive abilities still there and you will not always have another chance the older we get.
Amanda Montell,
You ROCK!!
Thanks for your download of info..
Sorry for this next bit:
For this Boomer, I'm not used to seeing my experts dressed in mint green colored mosquito-net garb... but, I was able to filter that 'bias' of mine and absorb your message.😃
Thanx again.
Spread the word.👍
Absolutely loved this interview. It rang so many bells in my bell tower. Definitely gonna read her book.
Me Too!
This show definitely deserves to end with a Mic Drop !!!
I adore how excited Jon was to let her plug her podcast. ❤
I did read of a study though, that the more intelligent people have a tendency to underestimate their abilities (not always) and the less intelligent more often overestimate their abilities/knowledge on many subjects.
It's not that they underestimate their abilities, it's that they tend to have more nuanced opinions. You'll hear, "It depends," more, which is too often interpreted as a lack of confidence.
I always feel unaccomplished when guests are my age and I'm at home eating ice cream from the container
Great Online, Jon. Your guest had me looking up and refreshing my memory of a lot of terminology. I learned some new things and think about others differently, and that is why I am here. Thanks!
Amanda is brilliant. Great interview. Going to buy her book instead of going to the library. 📚
Julia Roberts said it in Pretty Woman, “you hear something over and over, you start to believe it”, or something to that effect.
Lol. Why do you think the left tries to shut down the right so bad.
The right will debate the left. The left will shut down the right.
You’re only allowed to hear the right through the filer of the left.
The philosophy of hooker movies
That's literally Trump's mantra: tell people something often enough, and they'll believe it.
Except drumpf is very skilled at dishonesty. He seems to have perfected the art of mind manipulation through a combination of stand-up-comic voice inflection and matter-of-fact believe-ability that resonates with zero self-aware conservatives, even though it's pure poppycock. Like a type of hypnosis that's really scary.
I think one of the best things we did for our kids was say, "I don't know. Let's look it up," whenever they asked a question. Even when we knew the answer we'd look it up with them to double check. If we were wrong, we'd cop to it. When they got to be teens they knew they weren't going to get away with saying, "Everybody knows," to us without showing hard proof. Our youngest in particular was highly susceptable to influencer culture, so we had to work harder but it was worth it.
I spent most of my breakfast today showing my 4yr old illustrations of brains and lungs and hearts and muscles lol. "What's inside our SKULL?" Whenever she has a question, if I can't answer it definitively, I never let "I don't know" be the last word. I love her curiosity and I get to learn things with her along the way.
It's weird to think about how when I was a kid, if I didn't know something, and no one I KNEW knew, then that was it.. there's no answer! (without like going to the library or something)
@@HowieStephens...I was an uber nerd kid. I kept a little notebook with my questions and take them to my favoite librarian a few times a month.
This was great. The guest was so bright and despite my natural loathing of buzz words really educational. You alluded to a future conversation about the ongoing effects of the pandemic. I know it changed the way people think and behave but I haven’t heard a lot about common specific responses. Probably extremely politically relevant but also helpful when dealing with other carbon based life forms.
Great convo. Insight is priceless.
That was a great interview, bring her back anytime. So fascinating!
"Everything is great" "everything is bad"
"I know the best people"...."they're the worst people"
Just lent out my copy of Cultish. Looking forward to the new book. I see and hear declinism everywhere and always without evidence.
Interestingly, the argument that our cognitive biases worked fine in a previous age but create problems in our current Information Age itself seems to reflect declinism and recency bias. Shows just how powerful those biases are!
It really should not be the revelatory - we have drastically changed the way we go through our day to day - I will say I - but mean it collectively - we all rely upon phones as a sort of dashboard of life - a way to search for anything that we think we need to know - we did not have that available before so it has an exponentially greater impact on our lives.
I can't help but picture Conan O'Brian having a really bad day, and then coming across this video in the middle of the night... head drops, sighs, gently whispers "why?"...
Loved this. Makes so much sense. Being away and coming back to things that are not important was experienced by me during the OJ Trial. I lived in England for the entire year OJ was going on in the USA. I came back, not having heard hardly anything about OJ in England, and I couldn't believe everyone was watching Court TV. Not me, I watched Wimbledon and had no interest in the crazy goings on in LA. Now I know all about it and have watched and read everything, but am happy I wasn't in the USA when this was happening to the people in America.
Yes, the nostalgia some Americans hold for Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush is rather sad. Reason and facts should dictate that Reagan does not deserve the wistful longing for a return to the halcyon, positivist era that burnished memories mistakenly assert that he presided over. And all the fuzzy grandfatherly images of Poppy Bush, with his naive painting, should never diminish the evils he fostered.
We bought our home during Reagan, 13% interest rate
Loved this interview!
Fascinating interview
"I'm a reasonable person: I hate myself" hah!! Relatable.
Also the future requires hope and the possibility of being disappointed
This brings back memories of my cognitive psych. class in college!! Love it! Great guest!
There are many factors at play. First, most people have short memories or choose to think about pleasant things. Confirmation bias, cognitive dissonance and the lack of reading and research. Who looks for opposing views? Who’s using critical thinking and questioning their beliefs? The answer? Intelligent, rational individuals. The intellectually curious.
All those who wield influence have a responsibility to push what is noblest while still being pragmatic.
Excellent episode!
All the cognitive biases discussed here are real. Yet society continues to change, and almost always for the better. These biases are problems we need to tackle and we must not believe that doing so is impossible.
whoa - wait - "society continues to change and almost always for the better" I completely disagree with that assumption. I am certain that probably is dependent on how old you are - but - I would kindly encourage you to reevaluate that assumption. There has been a natural assumption that all progress is positive, all efficiencies and conveniences are better for mankind, it is very easy to refute that.
Reagan was the President of THE ACTORS GUILD. He was also Governor of California……..Trump was just an actor.
Trap resembles Reagan inNo way... Don't do that 🎉
Yeah, a union leader, who fired union workers. Reagan destroyed The Republican party by getting in bed with Christian psychos. Reagan was awful. Don’t glamorize him.
Obama was President of the F ilm A ctors G uild. Biden is just his puppet.
Daddy called Regan a 'B' movie actor ---- our ex-president doesn't even make any rating scale. There is no sense making of choreographed chaos. Control of information to his lemmings is his forte and not too hidden talent.
Reagan and trump are in competition for worst president ever.@@tchildress6339
Fascinating! Need to read Amanda's new book!
Trump learned a lot from Putin.
....and from Roy Cohn..... Joe McCarthy's lawyer and the Trump family mouthpiece....
Adolf Hitler in Mein Kompf. It’s All there
Not really. Sociopaths/psychopaths are this way naturally. The lie, cheat, steal and manipulate because they lack empathy for others.
Nasi-ism tends to be a rather powerful bias. Authoritarianism will overpower democracy through the confederacy of white nationalism, if it is allowed. It should be called out far more than it is. Conservatives don't comprehend what they are creating.
Amanda Montell was a great guest and what a fabulously informative interview!! Good show!
Well, my brain blew up long ago. I'm trying hard with getting back to normal. I go to a Therapist and getting tools and journaling working to regain my senses.
Stress had a large problem with becoming me again.
Over Covid, politics,Trump mania and to much every day overloading I've had to minimize all that.
We can't live every day with fear, doom and being paranoid without getting to the point of isolation.
Takes work to realize burnout is not normal.
I'll make it, but it's going take awhile to change my thinking too a positive note.Change is tough to do for many🤔
Pulling for you. ❤
I've (literally) had several year-long periods of severe depression over the last 8 years. Trump was a big factor in that. 😡
I tutor children one-on-one, and regardless of what subject we are supposed to be learning about, they always have questions about random stuff. And one of my favorite things to do with them is when they asked me a question about something I don't know about, or even something that I do know about but not a lot, is to model for them how to find that information. What are the most common things I end up saying is let's look that up together
Teach a child to fish... I mean search! ;)
I love that this lovely, brilliant woman is doing this pod in a raincoat in her kitchen. It's giving eccentric genius.
Wow! Amanda Montell explains all in a clear and cogent way. Just ordered her book. Cheers!
Great discussion. Was I focused on the pink box and wondering what’s inside? Maybe💙
My question is why do some people take these idol worships to the extreme?? When I was young I loved Elvis, etc. but today the social media has blown things out of proportion. What type of personality falls prey to these extremes?
Due to social media, we're able to see into their lives, which strengthens the perception of being close. For example, if a celeb posts a picture getting Chipotle and you eat at Chipotle, it makes you feel connected because this person is making the same choice as you or consuming the same stuff as you. With social media, we're seeing celebs doing Target runs etc and makes them seem more human and within reach. Some celebs also interact with their fans Online, which strengthens that bond.
People idol worshipped back then. It's just with social media we can see the number of people who are idol worshippers and they can join together in a away you couldn't back on the 1950's.
Thank you this is one of the best shows I’ve seen I have a couple of family members who are in the Trump cult. Showing a way to approach cult members has been refreshing. I know every time I would bring it up we would get into vicious argument ending not talking for weeks. Thank you more need to do that. This could be a way to at least for the short term get to some doubters
I envy her vocabulary.
same
Yes
for sure!! I did a few mental double-takes during the interview . "Whoa , she actually used that in a sentence???" LOL
Don't envy, emulate. Vocabulary is the beginning of thinking.
@@trishaferrand1395 after I got a smart phone my vocabulary got better seemingly overnight. If I hear a word I don't know I look it up. Etymology is particularly interesting to me.
Outstanding, engaging interview. Thank you.
Yes! Expect less! You said a lot there. I’m in the medical field and we want the people we’re explaining things to to have a certain sense of reality, that some things are beyond expectation. If people were trained as we grow up, maybe, that there is a point where expectations could go past reality. It’s a very uncomfortable feeling and we want comfort. The medical profession has taken advantage of this
I'm a Healthcare Educator. I always expect less. I teach at a 5th grade reading level. We do expect that our patients to know more than they do unfortunately.
@@nancychandler3673 ok I guess I was wanting our patients to expect less 🙂
Nostalgia drives me nowhere. I don’t want to sit at the back of the bus. 🚌 But, … I would like a 2024 Tee shirt that reads “Love it or Leave it!” 😂 😂😂😂😂
Great interview on an interesting topic.
Amazing interview.
Celebrities have the ability to influence their audience. This comes with the responsibility to use this influence in ways that benefit their audience. So, yes, celebrities should weigh in on politics. And any other issue that they feel is important to their fans. However, it is for them to decide what they should (and can) comment on. I don't feel like people have a right to demand that of them.
So Kid Rock being political is good?
Have to respectfully disagree with you. What you are saying is that they should use their influence over their fans to adopt the political belief of the celebrity. You can't possibly think that when Rosie O'Donnell said on national TV that 9/11 was an attack planned by the Bush presidency, that it was a thoughtful or responsible statement.
Or when Kathy Griffin posted a photo of her holding trumps severed head. That was going way to far even for me, and I despise trump.
All people, including celebrities should feel free to share their views.
@@lberghaus Agreed, that is what the first amendment says. But their audience needs to think critically about it and if maybe their celebrity obsession should stay in their lane.
So while Kid Rock is free to express his political views by shooting a gun at a box of Coors, that doesn't make it a useful or helpful message.
If someone educates themselves before firing off a hot take about a topic they have no expertise on, then they are worth listening to, but if someone is just posting uneducated takes on social media that is just more noise.
@@MitchellColbert he doesn’t need to stay in his lane because he’s a celebrity. He needs to be held accountable when he lies. Totally different way of looking at this IMO.
Wow, she's great. Thanks for bringing her on!
I will definitely check out her podcast
I really enjoyed this interview. Great topic, great chemistry. The guest was insightful and still funny.
Many of the things discussed today were things I don't usually think about. Quite enlightening.
They should really have David McRaney of You Are Not So Smart on. Not only does he know about cognitive biases and cults, but he knows how people can be persuaded to change their minds. Amanda Montell reminds me of David in his You Are Not So Smart days, before he learned that groups are smarter than individuals, and that there are ways to persuade even the people we think can't be reached.
Fascinating interview.
Wow, great stuff. I felt like I was being called out by Amanda every few seconds!
Amanda Montell, thank you !!!
This was an amazing episode and interview. I am def buying her book!
New to both of y'all, this is an important discussion and done really well. I look forward to hearing and reading more from you both. Thank you!
Great interview, Amanda Montell is great. I look forward to reading her book😊!
Excellent discussion, thank you!
Such a great conversation, Amanda's fantastic.
Breath of fresh air!!! Thank you for great conversation
Really good podcast as usual but this one really excelled in so many areas for me. I particularly laughed and enjoyed the description of the “regency illusion“ - just watch the 24 hour news programs.The cyhrons at the bottom of the screen on so many news shows state, “BREAKING NEWS” describing something that happened two days ago😂😂😂😂
Fantastic guests and conversation thank you so much for giving this issue attention! I'm sharing it everywhere I can. I hope others do as well love this show Jon thank you❤❤❤
The difference between knowing a thing’s purpose and knowing how it works, I know what the purpose of a toilet is - I’m pretty fuzzy on the finer details of how it accomplishes its mission :)
This whole book sounds like a deeply effective coping mechanism
Pscyhology is important. But we must not forget the reality of inequality in the distribution of wealth and opportunity, in the USA and worldwide..
An interview with someone about reality distortion fields would be an interesting follow-up here.
Is she gen Z? What an intelligent young woman. Vote 🇺🇸. 💙 Declinism is what she's referring to I believe.
I love her voice on this highly important topic. Thanks for the wonderful guest!!
What an informative episode. Thank you.
Illuminating
Feeling very conflicted right now... I really enjoyed listening to today's guest, and her whole message is how not to let your feelings +bias influence how you evaluate information! Very good talk today 👍
Absolutely fascinating interview. many thanks
13:00 - In 2016, there was the "quiet Trump voter", I wonder if we will see "quiet Trump quitters" in 2024.
Yes you are so right. We are experiencing PTSD of the pandemic. No one wants to admit but we are still recovering from the pandemic.
Thank you for the wonderful reporting. Sad to say, it is the highlight of my day.
I love Amanda! Great episode!
What a great episode!
I’m so surprised that people want to go back to a certain time. it doesn’t take long to realize the cracks in the viewpoint of an 8 year period. I wonder why people don’t prefer the present, advances are frequently introduced and we don’t know the downside yet! Our latest is the CHIPS act, broadband in underserved areas, cap on insulin costs + student loan forgiveness for those who started out with less debt. We want our society to run smoother.
Man this chick is a gem.
It's craziness to me that people don't see how corrupt he is. What will the rich do when the rest of society can't afford their products anymore
Amanda is so great!!
I would love for the news to give as many positive stories as they do horror stories.
There's a really good book called The Intelligence Trap that also outlines many of these ideas.
If one can often get honest feedback from a trusted source (or even an honest enemy) one can lessen overblown ideas. But that takes humility and some courage. I just LONG for more people to say, "You could be right." Or "I'll consider it."
Really fun listening to this. Thanks!
Question: This discussion is largely about how these concepts are used by the other (Trump.) What are some tools we can use to see where we ourselves are falling prey to them?
(on edit: I see some of this comes out at the end.)