April 2024 - Future of AI Webinar - Jobs + Audience Questions!
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- čas přidán 19. 04. 2024
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"Unskilled labor pssh. On a long enough AI timeline all human labor is unskilled. Doctors and lawyers may be able to hide for now behind statutory regulations but that doesn't mean their skills aren't functionally obsolete already.
TOTALLY SAFE: Meaning Jobs, ya know influencers like me. Humans will always want to hear from other humans". That's great Dave, how long until humans are not able to distinguish between a human influencer, and an AI influencer?
Yea it's a biased perspective. AI safety researchers also think their jobs are the safest, according to a recent survey asking them which jobs are safe. 😂
it will be up to us if we prefer to get our meaning from humans and demand systems to tell
@@DaveShap If you need a system to be able to tell, humans might think of the A.I as having become as much of a person as a human anyway.
@@Vaeldarg Exactly what I was thinking. If you need someone to tell you if this is an AI or not, I don't think people will care as much. We are developed to react to certain patterns and ques and if the AI is good enough we will start to trust and develop relationships with AI's and not care as much if they are really human or not
@@DaveShap who will we trust to run this system?
"Throughout history" wealth and accumulation and conflict are often fomented for purposes of securing the elements of survival. Not discounting the status games.
If physical security (food, water, power, education, health care, etc) is sorted, there could be a lot less incentive to fight the "other." Comfortable people tend to fight less.
Regarding population growth, again, history showed having more kids helped to secure labor, food, care in old age, etc. Recent info shows that increased wealth worldwide (less poverty), more gender equality, better health care, accesd to birth control, more bodily autonomy, and better education have been combining to lower birth rates. This is a new condition on the global scale, so not sure how appropriate it is to say history is destiny, though it can be useful as a contrast.
ps. Love your content. Keep the conversation flowing.
I love the slight hint of doubt when you said "I don't think I'm AI" 😅
my parents both retired for some years now (I believe retired living could be a good window into what post labour might look like for many) . They still have an alarm clock! I asked them why- they said it helps them get up and make the most of the day!
I'm wondering how Emergency Management and responses to Natural/Man-made disasters will change in the near future.
I’ve been thinking about that, and about air traffic control as well.
Addressing the uncanny valley is important for various reasons. Firstly, overcoming this barrier to realism can help advance robotics, computer graphics, and artificial intelligence, leading to more sophisticated creations. Secondly, it can improve therapeutic tools and social interactions, especially for those with special needs, by providing greater comfort and connection. Thirdly, it forces us to confront the ethical complexities of AI development and ensure responsible use of technology. Lastly, transcending the uncanny valley can foster greater understanding between humans and their intelligent creations, allowing for deeper artistic expression.
By tackling the uncanny valley, we can create a future where human-AI collaborations are fruitful and harmonious, unlocking boundless potential.
We need UBI as soon as possible. Without it we are in for a collapse of social order.
Re UBI. I rarely see thi mentioned but as Dave outlined regarding China, think of that applied to people who are on UBI, who might, just might , consider speaking out against the rise of AI taking over their jobs---Will they still get UBI? Just a thought
I'm enjoying these, thank you
You’re 100% based for clarifying that you don’t think you are an AI.
We don’t know if we are AI.
This is why I watch you Dave. Cheers!
thanks! I must step up my meaning economy game! :) Was always a great speaker, but always shied away from doing it more often. This is a great push :)
Darmok & Jalad!! HOW COOL IS THAT!!!
I agree, the book seems to lack a cohesive narrative and clear conclusions, which can be frustrating if you're looking for direct insights rather than just a broad survey of ideas. Also, your points on job displacement due to AI advancements are spot on. It's intriguing yet unsettling to consider how quickly certain roles are becoming obsolete, though it seems like careworker jobs might remain safer due to the personal touch and day-to-day assistance they provide. The economic implications of these technologies need to be addressed more substantially in both literature and policy. Thanks for the thorough review and discussion!
We already have a decentralised AI on the blockchain with Internet computer protocol, and with their UTOPIA you can run the AI without sharing your info ( if you are a company or gov)
Love the dedication to this topic
If you include therapists in the “meaning economy”, then for me they are not so safe. Therapists can cost $100+ an hour, have their biases, can be useless. At least if an AI therapist is useless, you can try another agent. If it’s merely the need to talk to another human, then Samaritan helplines are your best bet (I think they will always be needed).
It may well be that the enterprises we think of as being uniquely human are the things that AI will be best at. Humans evolved in an environment where we were the smartest creatures around. So when we would ask ourselves "what makes us unique?" The answers we came up with were things like language, reasoning, empathy, creativity, etc. But those skills are all based on intelligence, the very thing that we are designing AI to be better at than us. Those things that we consider "uniquely human" are exactly the things that AI will do better than us at. Human labor has no moat.
Topic: how AGI can help solve overshoot. The crux of the entire game. Synthesis of the wizard and the prophet.
0:12 NOTE: The use of nonplussed to mean "unimpressed" is an Americanism that has become increasingly common in recent decades and now appears frequently in published writing. It apparently arose from confusion over the meaning of nonplussed in ambiguous contexts, and it continues to be widely regarded as an error.
It's been hard to keep up since the new podcasts(ik they aren't new to everyone)
Yeah, I didn't see anything about whether or not Amazon retained their people for those jobs. The economic and emotional disruption to folks who get laid off and have to pay for all or part of their retraining is enormous.
Good question about world coin, wheres that gonna take us?
Will we still call it meat space when the androids are among us? Or will we pivot to putting them in bio machines by then?
I would add professional sales roles as safe meaningful jobs. Value-added sales, business-to-business, real estate and similar sales roles are all safe because the human trust factor and relationship remain essential to competitive success. And sales is usually first to get paid and last to be cut. My advice to a young professional person is embrace a sales career.
AI is becoming increasingly popular over human labor due to the various advantages it offers. These benefits include increased efficiency and productivity, improved accuracy and precision, enhanced speed and scalability, reduced labor costs and errors, the ability to perform tasks 24/7 without fatigue, and the capacity for objective decision-making without emotional bias.
AI has the potential to automate routine, repetitive, and mundane tasks, freeing humans to focus on more creative, strategic, and high-value work. In many industries, AI is already being adopted to improve processes, customer experiences, and overall performance.
For whose benefit? Corporations. They need less employees, and insist current ones use Ai so those employees work eventually find themselves out of work.
@@curiositysparksinspiredlea2085 AI can be both a massive job creator and a job killer. Ultimately, it's up to us how we guide it.
Coming north Europe I have serious doubts about how successful this 4 days work week has been in reality.
The only jobs that will be safe are if they require touch, or complex task like repairing plumbing or electrical. No one is going to let a robot into their home for some time because it could step on a child. If you have a job that uses a computer or could be done through a computer screen your job will be gone or limited. For example you can not replace the doctor, but you can have the AI do 99% of the diagnostic on line and then have the the doctor sign off on it. Now you have replaced 80% of doctors. food pep can be done by robots just not in your home for some time. As robots enter the work force, Ready to pick up food will drop in price, it my be cheaper to pick up food to take home then to make it, because of bulk food pricing.
the main question is will ai be able to cure balding in men as well as eyebrow loss
thats the main question
Excellent presentation and discussion, for me the issue is work won’t go away in 10-20 years, but there will be 25-40% unemployment. Professions such as some of the statutory ones like medicine and law you mention will gatekeep for 50+ years.
I haven’t read it yet. But just consider. Are you sure it wasn’t just written by AI?
Please make a video on singularitynet hyperon project.
+1 singularitynet is one of those projects that looks promising in the space of decentralised AI
To the automation and replacement part. It takes human coast up front then highly reduced as the system gets finished. Good job on sectioning out the job types that get replaced soon. Also don't forget algorithmic trading and predatory practices and fiat money and debt societies.
A.I. in bioengineering, chemistry, physics, psychology, warfare, cooking, cleaning, companions/agents, ect...
The darker side. Social engineering and algorithmic pipelines and A.I. influincers. The facebook experiment. The 10% tipping point rule and bad news rule and such. Digital silos, echo chambers, bias echoing. Generative A.I. creating new types of weapons. A.I. that can kill without a human in the kill chain. Alpha algorithmic trading A.I. systems. When A.I. hallucinates and it takes human life. ( Example Tesla )
No jobs are safe safe. For example, many companies exist within the same industry. Many will find their work dry up as the paying customer base begins to shrink. Many industries will find they will need to consolidate and shed "dead wood" long before they themselves become automated. As an example, when working from home became popular, central city lunch providers found a major drop customers and a lot went under. There will be a lot of secondary losses related to AI automation.
hey David, check this out :
The new CEO of Microsoft AI,
@MustafaSuleyman
, with a $100B budget at TED:
"AI is a new digital species."
"To avoid existential risk, we should avoid:
1) Autonomy
2) Recursive self-improvement
3) Self-replication
We have a good 5 to 10 years before we'll have to confront this."
from new Zealand
Skilled barbers will prob still be around. There will most likely will be automated shops and home machines that will kill some shops. But think I'll be ok
yeah that's a good one - the human experience for some is def worth it. But I am bald :P
@DaveShap hot towel and hot lather head shave my friend! If you ever come out the the cape canaveral area to watch a launch or anything let me know I'll take care of you!
Agree - people aren't going to be pushing for fewer hours of work while at risk of losing their job to AI/robots.
Plugging it all in and trying to see the future. Distilling the planet one day at a time one step at a time. Hunting those Yahtzee moments.
Beautiful stuff, David. Thank you.
If I could, I would turn your desk chair into a charging station. Granting you limitless energy.
Apologies to Anna. I think I just replaced David's spinal and brain pan fluid with some kind of electro neural jel.
You would still have all your exploratory husbandry duties to fulfill. Properly plugged in, you two could explore a million places at once. A place of bliss as those hormones pump and squirt. A cyber world where you don't have to exclude the outside world. Some kind of "magic leap" if you will. You can still climb the mountain or love your wife. In the reality of this world, while simultaneously pumping out a podcast or a million other things out of the back of your mind. There are so many paths one could take... The future is coming for us all. Might as well "buy the ticket, take the ride, and see the show. H.Thompson."
We are Borg, you have been assimilated.🤖🌎☀️
✌️🤟🖖
“Bro you are part of the meaning economy”
Lmfao
Hey dave, I see that you've read david graebers debt book, but have you read his bs jobs book/article? I wonder if you have any take on the idea that some estimate of 30-60 percent of jobs exist to simply keep people employed, despite being mostly or entirely useless to society? And what is to stop the same thing from happening despite more and more jobs being automatable?
That double doorknob is weird
The economy is NOT doing well. Prices are rising giving an illusion of high corp earnings. Real wages have been Dropping since 1971 and are plummeting right now. Personal debt skyrocketing.
“YT humans won’t be replaced without need of proof of humanity”. Won’t AI just have regend their humans to earn more?
I think in a world like that. AI becomes mainstream and normal. Id just use AI for research in fields I find interest in. Neurology, biology, engineering, physics, quantum physics. You get the idea. Im not interested in gaining meaning from other humans. Knowledge? Yes. I can learn from my own species, but meaning is unnecessary for me. Im simply speaking for myself.
Wow, that’s my bread and butter, call centers. BUT the important ones are seriously doubting the accuracy of chat bots AND you don’t have to search far for examples of what it cost the big businesses. And another BUT, we are not to far away as one of the toughest and (costlier) things is hiring, training and DEVLOPING, call center agents. So it is back to the number crunchers and those whose bonus depends on it.
Since we are chatting in the comments about "safe" jobs, I want to add I disagree about massage therapy. My quality of life and health would benefit so much from a weekly massage. I can't afford it with human labor though. I would switch to robotics in a heartbeat.
we must push for a constitutional direct liquid democracy socialist planned economy
replace private property with personal property .
Replace copy royalty rights with open source
That won’t happen probably
Klaus' stakeholder capitalism model is sus. There will be a hierarchy of power and influence still and what are the chances we will be at the bottom of it?
Klaus yes, but I'm appropriating it :D
These vids are coming out too fast with too similar titles and it's all getting lost in the noise. I haven't even watched the Future of Humanity webinar yet and now there's a Future of AI webinar to watch
I'm just releasing all the private stuff public. It will go back to normal tomorrow
TBH its quite depressing. If we lt unfettered capital run with this And we don't go to shorter work weeks and ubi for the obsolete. Then we end up with hunger mobs and Elysium
I guess anyone who works virtually has a lot to be concerned about.
I'm still skeptical that we're going to see humanoid robots replace most blue collar jobs. Moving boxes around a warehouse is one thing, but weilding an array of tools in unique and awkward circumstances, like mechanic jobs, I'll believe it when I see it.
It does feel like you would have to rethink the architecture and design of houses / buildings just to accommodate robot plumbers. But if whole houses can be built by robots at rapid speed why wouldn’t you? Rebuilds solve another quandary that I have been thinking about, like, a lot. In a post labour economy who decides who gets to live in the mansions and who lives in the tiny terraced houses ?
@@Judep4237 I'm excited about the possibilities of AI, but I see a lot of people in this space falling for what I call the "flying car fallacy". Which is the belief that because a technology exists that you can extrapolate that it will be manifested in everyday life in fantastic ways. Just like we don't all take our flying cars to the grocery store, the future will likely be a lot less exciting than the post labor future a lot of us fantasize about. At least in our lifetimes.
@@jrcrash4644the broadcast on this channel is saying something different. We talk about pDoom and revolution a lot for a group who isn’t expecting big change. The iPhone is a good example of what you mean though. It didn’t solve any fantasy but has brought about its own market. I’ve heard Zuckerberg in a recent interview agreeing with your view but, honestly, I hope there is more to our future
@@jrcrash4644the broadcast on this channel says something different. We spend a lot of time discussing pDoom and revolution for a group who aren’t expecting big changes. The iPhone is a good example of what you mean though, it didn’t solve world problems in a fantastic way but created its own market in unforeseen ways. A recent interview I saw with Zuckerberg supports your view but, honestly I hope AI is going to make bigger waves than the iPhone or the flying car.
Where is the 900 page UN report on how AI will address our climate crisis? Either AIs get big power or big problems get ignored.
Stakeholder capitalism might be great - but isn't going to happen easily or by default, and I'd be concerned about its stability - e.g. if people are able to sell their permanent stakes for an immediate need. Getting the design right for the long term (or at least not getting it locked in, so it can be replaced with an improved version) will be critical.
The default USA response to AI unemployment (and the resulting depression) will likely be a 'Stingy UBI', a supposedly temporary unemployment extension as during Covid, but becoming permanent. Very small, progressively taxed back if you earn beyond 30 hours/week of minimum wage.
Economics is going to go 'haywire'.
Sign language will go away too
are we all destined to the metaverse?
Only the people that have no interest in this reality. I will never go into the metaverse because i fear that i will enjoy it too much and that makes me never want to go out.
@@BabushkaTwerking you could always go out, in the metaverse 😏
Wages are still inflating
Anyone born now will belong in Generation AI
You can't go wrong learning a skilled trade or two. As for missuses, I replaced mine with a good massage cushion a long time ago.
you need to check your employment data sources. that is not true.
Going to have to disagree with your comment on games David Shapiro as some of my Ai AGI goals are to do with games not sure how far away to it can recreate them as some of the old mobile games have gone so Dawn of the Dragons Legacy Of 1000 Suns which is the only game of its type. Final Fantasy Mobius Final Fantasy Record Keeper and some of these have unique battel system. and last Wild Arms 1 million memory's which was only released in Japan and definitely wit the chance to live for ever as Dawn of the dragons has no end.
and dont forget a new you clinic logans run may not be ready for a few decades but once people can look like their in game avatars and hope full agi can make more of the old games that have no longer be made aka a wild arms 6 my favourite game series. as they are there in wikis and need to be re programmed and coded but the main data aka story monsters is there
Wait, am I a meat AI?
always was
Not an Artificial Intelligence, you would be a Natural Intelligence (biological, rather than technological).
If you accept the analogy that ASI is a dragon, and AGI is an airplane, then you will believe it
As of now, call center AI is terrible. Anyone that actually has to deal with call centers regularly will tell you they prefer to get to a person to troubleshoot an issue. AI (as of now) is not helpful and cannot answer specific problems.
It actually can if you design the assistant well, provide it all the company knowledge. But many just hop on the trend, give GPT a custom prompt and think that will cut it. Building well-designed AI assistants is not easy but eventually we’re get there once the best practises are in the open
Civilization might dissolve itself in 5 years, at least in semi-open societies, because of AI. Because what is the biggest need on the battlefield in Ukraine right now -- the Russians are apparently hunting FPV drone operators. So get the humans out of the equation. You just want transportable boxes that anyone can just open and have it do its thing, such as enough boxes to stop that armor or supply column on that road, right now. There's only one problem. This will be developed for the battlefield right now, but once this technology is developed, who is to say it won't percolate to any major city, where desperate people can be paid to simply transport a box from one place to another, and not get pulled over for a traffic violation. They won't have to open the box. Just put the box where it can open itself and do its thing. Because what can distinguish a column of tanks or tankers can distinguish all sorts of other things, pre-programmed. The sum of all fears used to be suitcase nukes. These boxes will be far far worse a threat, unstoppable, because there will be no treaties that can stop proliferation, no inhibitions to using these weapons, anywhere, not even by military, but by say drug cartels.
Regarding life coaches, I will say that most of what I hear them say does sound AI generated and is all basic and obvious as hell. 😂
Filipinos gonna lose their jobs at call centers
These LLMs are still total garbage at coding, or even helping to code if it is more than a tiny scope, and it hasn't gotten much better over time. A quick google search or reading the docs is still often more helpful than AI. No way is it replacing devs any time soon.
first
congrats brother!
Dave. Mate. The economy is being held afloat by insane debt. 1T every 100 days. US Debt interest payment are something like 30% of tax receipts. We are in a meltdown. D-Day is soon. Coming out the other side, all of this stuff about jobs will be done in the meltdown, and out the other side will be the AI/Robot economy. I give it three years until the "New Normal" is embedded and irreversible.