Life under UBI: Work, hobbies, and wellbeing without work
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- čas přidán 4. 06. 2024
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Post Labor Economics for more of the macro-economic perspective: czcams.com/video/9yN7885s5rA/video.html
“In practice as well as theory the society was beyond considerations of wealth or empire.
The very concept of money-regarded by the civilization as a crude, over-complicated and inefficient form of rationing-was irrelevant within the society itself.
Where the capacity of its means of production ubiquitously and comprehensively exceeded every reasonable (and in some cases, perhaps, unreasonable) demand its not unimaginative citizens could make.
These demands were satisfied, with one exception, from within the society itself. Living space was provided in abundance, chiefly on matter-cheap O’Neill Cylinders & Stanford Tori; raw material existed in virtually inexhaustible quantities both between the stars and within stellar systems;
& energy was, if anything, even more generally available, through fusion, matter-antimatter annihilation, or from stars (taken either indirectly, as radiation absorbed in space, or directly, tapped at the stellar core).
Thus the society had no need to colonize, exploit or enslave.”
- The Hydrogen Sonata, Ian M. Banks.
Where do you get 15% GDP growth, with 70% unemployed? Who is buying all the output, with 2K?
B2B
@@eldsentinel7323before the communists came. Education is only for smart people and have money. people usually go straight to work at the age of 5 years.
after communism came everyone could get education up to university. regardless of wealth, ethnicity, and gender. even the dumb and crippled could pass school.
many capitalists ask the communists why they send stupid and disabled people to school who will not give a return on the amount of investment given. (waste of subsidies)
because for the communists it is not important. if people don't have talented, it doesn't matter whether they graduate they will still be unemployed, it doesn't matter even if they are women after graduating from university paid for by the government and only working as housewives.
Something that is good for everyone does not have to be seen whether it will generate profits based on the amount of investment that is given.
Free education does not make people smart or creative and make money, but free education makes everyone not stupid, open-minded, learn ethics and loyal to the nation and state.
compared to people who attend private capitalist schools who only study subjects that they like and make money.(USA) and never touched subjects such as history, geography and mathematics.
Also would you be able to move and live in another cheaper country?@@DaveShap
David, I am 79 and have been retired for 17 years. I live on two checks totally $1,370 a month with a little rescue dog. My housing is subsidized as I'm a vet and costs $302 a month. In 2007 I ran for Mayor of San Francisco. I've run for Supervisor 5 times in different districts and School Board. Never spent dime on campaigns and friends pay my entries. My dog and I pickup trash around our block every morning and all morning Sundays. I do it for writing material as that is my love. I walk 90 minutes a day up steep hills so don't worry about being bored after 'retirement'. Just spend all of your time doing what you wanted to do in the first place anyway.
Love this comment.
Im guessing having a good life on a fixed income is a lot easier with rent at $302/mo.
@@macrumpton Yup. Imagine Rent being what it is normally in CA for this guy? Isn't it like $1500 a month lol? Here in TEXAS it's around $1,000 - $1,200 a month.
We need to start a ai apocalypse dating website or something cuz it’s really hard to find someone who cares about this stuff lol
lol
Holy crap this is a genius idea
@@sinnwalker I'm okay with that personally. I've actually found chat bots rather interesting at times.
Japan is doing this right now. Using AI to get people to find a romantic companion.
When you zoom out from this scenario, it looks like a charitable version of Elysium or the Hunger Games (without the games). First, a ton of respect for the thought and effort you put into your work David, and I enjoy watching, so this isn't a criticism. This video is still relevant and comes from a good place, but it's also worthy of a sequel. The larger picture I see is a separation of societies far bigger and more consequential than what we have today.
It's not the worst outcome, but it's still masses of people living on a subsistence wage in micro apartments, tiny homes, and communes with zero upward mobility because the even more rich, privileged, and powerful control and own everything. With armies of Tesla Optimus-bots or whatever they have, along with AI, they live in Panem-like cities from The Hunger Games, travel the world in mega yachts, and for all intents and purposes, own the future.
If we reach that point, it's pretty easy to imagine the potential bad outcomes. One obvious outcome is hundreds of millions of people (billions globally) surviving on the good will of an unbelievably rich and powerful society that doesn't need them anymore.
For sure this isn't the only potential outcome. These technologies are not going to come online all at once, so the future will likely be messy. Some jobs will get automated relatively soon, much like jobs have been automated in the past. And for a while, society and the economy may absorb those losses without much change. Many trades and jobs in medicine, for example, like nursing, dental hygienists, etc. are probably safe for a long time. We're still years away from a robot that can do what a nurse or an electrician needs to do every day, and when (and if) we reach that point, manufacturing and supplying those robots at scale will still be somewhat of a challenge.
Meanwhile, in the years that lead up to that, we'll probably have regulations that protect workers in some way because automation in another area (like autonomous driving) arrived and caused so much disruption and a potential economic collapse, that we've had no choice but to put future safeguards in place.
At any rate, it'll be an interesting future.
He's leaving SO much on the table, but at least he's thinking about it in a way that understands the magnitude of the changes that are coming. It's more like he's telling us what he needs us to teach him about so that we help him steer the course of history in the right direction. Cheers!
Yes,the disruption will be incremental..like in phases.
Some areas will get eliminated,while others will be holdout positions
and anyone that owns businesses.
But overall foks will be on UBI.
I can see the entire midwest rust belt on this UBI scheme
"Here slaves, heres a basic income for you, while we claim everything that exists for ourselves" and a dr evil laugh at the end.
When enough money is stolen from the market, wealth becomes relative
It‘s already like this, but we have to work fulltime just to survive. I mean maybe we‘ll still be slaves under UBI but at least it would be a little more pleasant 😅
Slaves?! slaves that are actually *free* to pursue their own interests?|
You have a strange definition there.
One thing I always wanted to do with the tiny house villages is have a common area in the middle of each handfull of them. I think they're a perfect oppertunity to have a central meeting place where the residents can be a community again vs the current suburban trend of being shut up indoors and never knowing your neighbors. The common area can also have several amendities that wouldn't fit in the tiny houses, think swimming pools, rec rooms, banquet halls, gym, maybe a pub or cafe. It'll be a third place just outside your home basically.
Why tiny houses? Why not cheap big houses? Construction cost isn't an issue, and cheap real estate is just a matter of deploying a more ecological implementation of desalination.
The government (govern-mind) never cared about us ...they have ONLY ONE PLAN and nothing else
If I have to live in a tiny house due to losing my job to AI, I'm going to be pissed off, lol.
Very insightful, comprehensive, and well thought out. Thank you so much for your content!
As someone once said "the nerds shall inherit the earth", be they car nerds, gaming nerds, or boat building nerds. As 3D printing, CNC machines, etc, improve so too will our ability to make our own personalized items.
Thank you! It's good to hear you are excited for the future.
Hi i know you probably can’t edit a video after uploading it. But I want to recommend that you discuss the effect AI could have on those that have disabilities. For me being deaf, blind. I use chat, GPT and other AI technology to help me with my challenges.
Thats powerful, I'd say deserves its own video. Not only on the side of assistance, but meaningful healing and rehabilitation too.💚
How did you access the content of CZcams?
@@poutingmarslast601 😂😂😂😂
@@poutingmarslast601 it's chatGPT talking
@@poutingmarslast601 good question. I am not completely deaf blind. It means I can still see and hear a little bit. I can’t see and hear well enough to get the small details. I use voice over and voice. Dictation to interact with the CZcams app.
This is going to be an Awesome episode!
why are we talking about sharing tiny houses and living in boxes to save money if AI causes production to skyrocket?
Your content is amazing, such high quality! I have believed this future potential was coming since 2010, it’s amazing to see it actually playing out in real time. Thank you for keeping us up to speed with your presentations!
Same
This is a fantasy that has been promised by the optimist futurists for decades, yet the life has been getting more expensive, people more depressed and hateful by everything and the end for degradation is not seen anywhere.
My fear with UBI is that prices will be driven up by it, especially housing. It may be if you want to live the “UBI lifestyle” that you’re either shacking up with eight roommates or avoiding urban life entirely.
It could also be the case that urban centers are abandoned as rural areas grow, since we’d no longer be tied to cities for specific job markets (e.g. programmers living in West coast cities.) Remote work could also have this effect.
Keep in mind that there won't be other jobs. Meaning, the amount of funds available is still finite. UBI won't be a supplemental income, it will be The Sole income. Thinking this way should help to better grasp the world we are heading into.
@@Recuper8 I think initially there will be plenty of supplemental income, but less and less as time moves forward, at least for a large majority of people. But at that point, UBI may be able to afford absolute luxury as automation drives the cost of everything to zero. The only cost that will remain is the scarcity of finite natural resources, like land. (There are also natural resources we view as finite today that may be less finite in the future, like gasoline. But the point is that it’s scarcity makes competition between buyers a relevant factor.)
Thank you once again David for your excellent and thorough research I've directed quite a few friends and family towards your channel so far keep up the excellent work. :)
Awesome video, thanks David ❤
sometimes dogs don't like the sound of machines motors, this suggests a way to solve this issue
Lots of good ideas in this one. Yup, we're gonna have to make some changes to make it all work, but a lot of those could be fun and rewarding. I've made a few, probably gonna have to make a bunch more. Thanks for the video.
Thank you very much for this open thinking! I deeply enjoyed it. In my perspective, everything matched so well #lovetopia approach that I had a big smile in my face and my heart 😉 Muchas gracias, buen hombre
Sadly, UBI will not be a thing with the current political climate even though it will be needed and is probably needed now tbh. Reaganomics and trickle-down economics is the rule-of-the-day and will be so in the foreseeable future. In order to fund UBI, as you mentioned, would be done through the redistribution of wealth from corporations to the civilians and since the corporations won't like giving their profits away, they will just have any laws/regulations related to it to be buried by bribing (I mean, lobbying) the politicians. Honestly, if I was a betting person, I'd place my bets on the future being a dystopia since there are too many corporate interests involved.
I am sad to agree. Increases in productivity gains used to result in compensation gains for labour, until 1971, at which point compensation flat-lined. Corporations, the billionaire class, and their government lobbyists will protect this status quo.
Psychopathic traits are much more common in CEOs. (studies have shown) As personal wealth goes up empathy goes down. (again, studies have shown)
Billionaires will laugh and compete for high score, as people starve in the streets.
@@AAjax "Billionaires will laugh and compete for high score, as people starve in the streets." Exactly--just like they already do.
UBI may happen eventually but there will be serious social unrest first.
Just like at the present time then.....
@@user-bz5xb8em6m Did a brainstorm / think tank session with Gemini (which was the last nail in the coffin - stopped using corporate-based LLMs in favor of uncensored, locally hosted versions) with the main factor of allowing humans to evolve past our tribe-based instincts, with a generalized utopian society as being the end goal. The results were.. not pretty, not for a very, very long time (~5,000 years).
Can I have access to the slides of the video in case I want to study them?
I personally cannot imagine a future with AI where housing is a problem. From my understanding of how the market works: higher supply leads to lower prices. If we're living in a world where AGI has replaced all workers, then housing should become another booming autonomous industry, just like others that are being automated. Particularly with 'free' workers building houses, excavating, and perhaps even constructing cities underground, I really can't envision a future where AI has taken over and there is a housing crisis. This contradicts my model of post-labor economics in an AGI-dominated era. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but the argument for downsizing really troubles me as it seems to go against my model of how AGI and post-labor economics should function.
I love your videos man I hope everyone watches them!
Also just wondering, do you think there will be any need for entrepreneurship in a post-AGI world? Will it look the same? Different?
I think that human initiative will always have value. I don't think it will look the same, though
If AI is not a threat, it could truly transform the planet and life in an extraordinarily positive way. I also keep thinking about the 1951 sci-fi film The Day the Earth Stood Still where robots were given full authority to prevent violence and war.
Iain M Banks Culture series are how i think things will pan out.
I totally agree. It's valid for people to raise concerns about the potential dangers of course, because if it goes badly then it's likely to go super badly. But a lot of people seem to turn "hey here are some issues we should try to mitigate" into full doomerist "WeRe AlL gOiNg To DiE 100% gArAuNtEeD!!" which is just silly and hysterical. People seem to mistake blind cynicism for "realism" and "intelligence" these days. The reality is that there will most likely be a few bumps and scary situations, but it will overall work out in the end and we will end up in a better situation as a species. Objectively life has gotten better on average by every metric. Yeh, the gap between rich and poor is bigger than ever, which is an issue. But even the poorest today live measurably better lives than most of the kings and queens of just a couple centuries ago. We will look back a century from now and say that AGI was a big watershed moment that resulted in a big improvement in human lives.
I worry about the Forbidden Planet scenario (1956)
@@lievenvv monsters from the ID.
Great overview but I think the crux is drilling down on the change over.
All the hobbies in the world won't mean a thing if we can't safely transition to a post AI economy.
Labor, Unemployment, UBI, Housing, transportation, and dressing social and economic stratification and the transition of wealth, taxes, social support structures ect are the absolute main issue that needs to be discussed fully and repeatedly. It literally is just as if not more critical than the alignment discussion.
Keeping AI from killing us all is critical. But just as critical is keeping humans from killing each other as we face this existential transition.
We need a deep and constant conversation about this most important subject.
Not sure if you mentioned it but Time Banking is a very interesting solution for people to still work and feel connected to producing their own value. May end up being vital while people get adjusted to this new style of living.
I’ve been to a few countries in Europe. St Petersburg getting around on the metro wasn’t difficult to learn. The door opens and the marble on the wall in the station is different in every stop. On the street you stick your right arm out palm down and someone maybe a taxi will take you where you want to go after negotiating price. Germany has an awesome train system as well as local trams. The train system is awesome in Europe and Russia .
"stick you right arm palm down"
🤔😬😳
The German word for railroad is "Eisenbahn", literally translated means "Iron track"
Russia is Europe
One thng I would add to the UBI framework would be to incentivize education. $2000 month, with no strings attached as a start. If you can sell your skills or goods that you create to other people, great.
However, whatever organization is providing the $2000 base amount should also reward time and effort spent on self-improvement. Whether that is studing university level physics or studying blacksmithing and forging. This will encourage progress and guard against societal stagnation.
Useless knowledge is instantly forgotten. The incentive would have to be real and stable. Give an edge, prestige. Like retesting and rewarding with money every single year.
Where do you put handmade trinkets or furniture if you live in a tiny house?
Exactly. And who will have the money to spend on trinkets if you only get $2000 a month, unless the price of everything else drops so significantly that your services may be $5 or something low like that.
I did not comment before, it's more difficult to comment when the quality is higher. This is the best of your videos I've seen. There's a few darts at a lot of potential outcomes, but the main theme is right on point for humans in a Post-AGI world with respect to a shift of priorities: A lot of the material here I would like to see rapid uptake in school institutions changes for a simple example of useful outcome and manifestation of these ideas.
and how much time would it take to be implemented largely at scale lets say for an entire country at least ? (but it should probably mean that it's the same elsewhere) probably 20 years minimum. I'm talking about the time it would take not only for AI to replace approximatly 90% of digital / data related jobs, but also then for the government to switch for an unprecedented money system like UBI. maybe more than 20 years in fact, but maybe i'm wrong
I am a loner who lives in the country. Even my wife is too many people sometimes. I would rather do physical work so I can maintain my lifestyle and have more "me" time. I'm keeping my 2004 Subaru and our 1972 built "used" house. City life is not for me and there are many country folk besides me. What about houses and cars that already exist?
I've added this to my limited list of favorites in my favorites folder.
¡Gracias!
Whats your update on the AI from Israel, Faception?
While some zoning laws are obviously needed, it does seem alot of them are in place to maximize profits...
Also, what are your thoughts on taxing energy/other utilities? many people use aircon when they could just wear a couple more layers of clothes, keeps the lights on longer then they should, have long showers, etc.
obviously its disadcentivized with the cost it brings, but if the cost was ramped up higher it would result in a more strict culture.
I think it would be better to focus on energy efficiency than to limit people's use of energy. If we built based on the environment we wouldn't need as much energy per household anyway.
What rules are likely related to starting a business while receiving UBI. ?
I suspect it would be highly encouraged. If you can spot an opportunity to create market value, go for it.
They already have tiny home sub division in Dallas because regular size houses got too expensive.
Great presentation, thanks for sharing with us!
What about local Security / law enforcement, peace keeping, firefighting and other natural disasters / accident response teams are also going to be still needed in a UBI world, won’t they? What about legal, justice, etc? Do you put all that under the umbrella of health and services?
Why can’t the robots do that stuff?
This, came here to ask about this. Also what happens when a neighboring community decides they want your spot and user their robots to overpower your robots?
@@7200darkcharmthey could, up to a certain point, but they all need to inspire trust, empathy and respect, and my take is that there is a human aspect to those feelings.
@@7200darkcharm They will, eventually.
Not just bikes! A huge eye opener
Montreal too is walkable, no need for a car. That is if you like walking on ice and snow
Wouldnt the real world limited supplies of basic commodities place constraints on economic growth?
This sounds incredibly dystopian. The assumptions are quite ambitious as well.
dystopian? What do you mean?
Not sure you understand the idea of a dystopia.
@@moby7384 It sounds nice but we do not live in a society that can/will move gracefully into a post-work paradigm. Ppl would end up reliant on government basic income which the government would surely use to control their behavior.
Meanwhile you would have mega wealthy trillionaires directing society based on their idea of how things should be which of course would mostly only be a direction that entrenches their wealth and power.
Wouldn’t there still be jobs for software engineers in AI and prompt engineers?
yes, but look how many jobs we have already lost from self-checkouts.. they are everywhere now.
The problem with U. B. I is inflatiion/lost buying power. If everyone gets its, more currency is chasing same amount of goods. If it's given selectively, those who get it are robbing buying power from those who don't. Govt will introduce price controls, and this will create shortages. We're heading into a lose/lose game, where only a very select few will reap massive long term benefits.
This assumes production capability stays the same. The theory is production capability expands exponentially thus abundance is the result. Your result depends upon demand exceeding supply which is unlikely to be the case with production being cheap. Under our current system, yes the result of increasing wages is indeed inflation.
There are lots of small towns in America with populations of less than 1000. They are very walkable with grocery stores, restaurants, parks, schools, etc. Large lots could be purchased and revamped to create the "coaster" communities you mentioned. With how spread out the current houses are, it would be possible to triple the populations without expanding the borders of the towns.
A note on housing. With AI replacing so many office jobs there will be an abundance of office space that can be converted into apartments.
Everyone living with others sounds like the makings of gangs of New York.
I so appreciate the definition of the difference between socialism versus a Ubi.
It is a real pet peeve of mine out there in the world where people misuse socialism all the time is it things like social security Medicare and so forth are not socialism especially when you take into consideration that even though Medicare pays for medical care it is private Enterprise it provides the doctors or hospitals and so forth and the research thank you thank you so much for such an intelligent and articulate definition for a lot of the people who may be unclear on this
If basic income is socialism so is insurance I guess.
It's communism actually. So it's Even worse.
People also need to stop thinking Scandinavia is socialist.
@@urphakeandgey6308 Scandinavia is a capitalist economy a social welfare state.
Social welfare is more about income distribution and not about who owns the means of production
@@urphakeandgey6308Or, and hear me out on this, Americans in particular need to stop thinking socialism is anything they don't like. Socialism, like capitalism, democracy, and most other socioeconomic systems, exists on a spectrum - one with more than one axis, no less.
My purpose is the long-term survival of intelligent life. I can't imagine any idea more destructive to the future of intelligent life than UBI. My own experience on the road leads to the clear conclusion that almost all homeless today are unemployable and not contributing to others or to society in any way, not because of a lack of jobs, but due to drug addiction, disability, or simply no desire to be a contribution to others. A world with UBI will simply enlarge this underclass of the non-contributing who become an ever-increasing burden on the contributing. UBI creates an ever-accelerating vicious circle of non-contribution where the children of the non-contributors never learn the habits and sense of purpose that lead to wanting to make a contribution to others and instead live in a perpetual child-like world of expectation, hedonism, selfishness, dependency and fear. Your passing point that UBI might lead to a lack of productivity and self-actualization is an understatement. Let me say in closing that UBI won't even be necessary, as any student of economics knows, since the opportunities to serve other people and society productively only increase as the cost of goods and services decrease. Spend any time in a typical household today (the 99%) and you'll observe the need and demand for services of all kinds: childcare, elder care, tutors, psychotherapy, physical therapy, fitness training, music, art, cleaning, landscaping, repairs, school teaching, work training, etc. Any one of these professions could use 10% of the adult population when people can afford it, which will be soon. So, even if 70% of the current workforce were to lose their current jobs, the remaining 30% become so much more productive that every household with at least one working member can afford all these additional services, thus putting all the previously underemployed to work serving the needs of others in productive ways, doing work which is much more satisfying as well, but only ONLY if they have not already been caught in the trap of hedonism, dependency, and laziness so that they are unable to contribute to the lives of others. UBI is not a safety net, it is a trap. David, a smart guy like you should take a moment and consider what a hell you are advocating,, and at least wait to see if I am wrong before advocating a solution without a problem. I'm available as @mrfunding on twitter.
You're wrong in your assessment. Had a job, lost said job, ended up homeless myself - and it sucked; badly. I did have some money saved up and so I self-studied for the CompTIA Security+ exam (I was already A+ and Net+ certified) - got that cert and... nothing. No hits on sending out a few hundred resumes for anything related to IT (even basic IT). Decided to get my Cisco CCNA and.. still nothing. I got an offer to interview from a defense contractor across the country, however, they would not pay me to move and only reimburse me (I didn't have the money to do so). So, to make a little bit of, well, I'd say money, but I traded my services (laptop and desktop repair at Burger King) for food. Wrote a couple of books for Kindle, etc.. It wasn't until the pandemic hit that I finally got some help and I was able to find my current WAH job. I'll probably end up homeless again though seeing how the student loan repayments will kick in again (don't get paid enough for rent and wage garnishment) which means I'll lose this job since I won't have a home from which to work out of.
While I understand and respect your perspective, there are some counterarguments to consider. Firstly, it's crucial to remember that UBI is not intended to replace work, but to provide a basic level of financial security, effectively eradicating extreme poverty. This could foster an environment where people have the freedom to pursue jobs (or lifestyles) that they are passionate about and where their skills can be better used, rather than just taking any job to survive more choice is always good.
All of those jobs you mentioned can also be done more efficiently by an AI, giving people busy work for it's own sake is a great way to cause the society to stagnate, they expect 70% unemployment over the next 5-10 years, yes there will still be people working at that time but for how much longer?
The assumption that UBI recipients will automatically become unproductive, dependent, and hedonistic can be challenged. Studies, such as the one in Finland where they trialed UBI, showed that the recipients continued to work. They also reported lower stress levels, better health, and higher confidence in their future prospects. This suggests that UBI could potentially lead to a healthier, happier, and even more motivated workforce (while it last) and population
.
If UBI gets established, will all of us get the same amount of money? If yes, who will establish and how will be established what amount of money we will get? If no, who and based on what will decide what amount of money will be given to each individual?
It would have to be the same in order for it to be legitimate. The bureaucracy that gets added the worse. Best to keep it simple and one value for everyone and let everyone make their own choices with it (like where to live).
@@DasRaetsel So a guy who has an IQ of 140, a PhD and 10 years of experience working as a neuro surgeon will have as much money as an imbecile? I hope I will not live long enough to be part of that world.
There's a couple of ways it can be calculated. 1) Look at the cost of living for an area, and base it off of that. In the short term that would be why you wouldn't want it to be equal for everyone, as different areas cost different amounts to live in, so you'd want to balance for that until things even out. 2) You could instead take the size of the pool of UBI money, and split it equally among everyone on UBI with no questions asked. Automation tax is one way to generate the pool for UBI, and David talks about some other methods in the video. This would be the most fair when cost of living has largely evened out across the board. You could do this right off the bad at @DasRaetsel essentially suggested, but that's likely to cause lots of disruprion and mass migrations as people can no longer afford to live in certain places. But then because they're migrating to cheaper places, prices there start to shoot up and people get displaced again. Yeh it would settle down eventually, but it would cause a lot of chaos and probably death and destruction before it does.
Big fan of video and UBI in general. Although I do not think it’s an adequate “end goal” as to where we go from ai. Socialism needs to be the answer. The capitalists (owners of the means of production) will always have an incentive to undercut bargaining power, cut ubi and other social welfare to save on taxes, capture public goods through privatization, and monopolize industries. It’s time we look into both ubi as well as how AI can play a hand in central planning and economic decision making. Additionally, worker owned enterprises have a greater ability to equitably and rationally respond to automation than traditional shareholder and wage worker companies because the incentives align more easily with it.
I would rather die than live with roommates again or in a pod or van.
with UBI you could move to some small town and have place for yourself. it would stop towns from becoming ghost towns.
Yeah I think the idea that anyone is going to want to give up their McMansions is silly. Sure there is a small percentage of folks who desire a tiny home but that's a tiny fraction. Most live in small accomodations simply because they have no choice. Same for bunking up with others. Yeah you do it when you are poor and must do so to not starve but it's not a life most dream of. I thought the purpose of AI was to provide us a better life not cause mass downsizing. The concept of comunes like he suggests was done many times in the past. It's not a viable lifestyle for many folks.
I made a video on it as well. Interestingly high numbers.
I personally think it should probably start low, in general for public support purposes, but also lower by age that increases by age.
And removing minimum wage.
More may be possible, but the job = honor feeling is really strong.
Interesting what AI may do.
tell us about ethical problems of FDVR please
Great presentation. I have a question about the basics of UBI, however. It is estimated that about 50% of tax revenues collected by the government comes from workers. Another 36% from payroll taxes. I the vast majority of people are no longer 'contributing' their tax money, where do the funds come from to fund UBI?
You would have a VAT(value added tax) placed on the production of goods made via automation. Since more goods, in theory, could be made tax revenue would be good. It really depends on rather you believe money will still be a thing of course.
Possibly the AR revolution and automation might also make it possible to build housing or structures exceedingly less expensive than they are presently and then also a variation updating on Elon musk boring equipment could also give us the ability to excavate really cheaply and build downward and then therefore bring down the cost of housing that way as well possibly..
Wow looks like a massive drop in standard of living what with living in a garden shed and no car! Not exactly living the dream is it
Think there might be drama in a mommune?
My concern is how myself and many others with large mortgages would be able to pay them on a UBI. But my head hurts thinking through the situation. Many wouldn’t be able to pay, but no one would be able to buy the house if the bank tried to sell it….
How do people move up the housing ladder if they can’t earn more money?
what keeps you from earning more money or value? would being resourceful be illegal under UBI?
@@andytheriault9383 No, but AI will be better than you at anything and everything, no matter how hard you try or how resourceful you are.
Ownership of any resource in an equitable society is the real discussion, WHen the WEF suggest you will own nothing and you will be happy, this is what they are actualyl referring to. IF everything belongs to everyone, but we have the ability with an abundance of fuels, resources, and time, we can spend more time in metaverses, with all the same 'trappings' of alleged luxury, and the most luxurious thing of all, time, as long as our basic maslows hierarchy of needs are satisfied.
It is true that ownership is often primarily a way to retain autonomy and privacy. When autonomy and privacy are guaranteed, ownership becomes secondary
@Andy Theriault your digital money will expire if you don't spend it where and when they want you to spend it. Government owns you, and you pay for it.
The idea of the humans becoming a race of hobbyists is pretty depressing. My hope is that we use AI to improve humans continuously physically, mentally, and emotionally. We can imagine being better and now we have the tools to make it happen.
The alternative is to become bystanders watching AI improve itself, like a dog watching its master doing things it can't comprehend.
I wholeheartedly support the implementation of Universal Unconditional Basic Income (UBI) as a crucial social policy. However, I firmly believe that in addition to UBI, we must also prioritize the provision of guaranteed housing for all individuals. It is concerning to think about the potential consequences of limited affordability, leading to people being confined to cramped micro-apartments or living in substandard trailer park-like tiny house villages. We should strive for a society where everyone has access to secure and comfortable housing that meets specific standards related to space, aesthetics, and proximity to essential facilities and public centers.
When envisioning the future of housing, I consider the transformative potential of AI, robotics, 3D printing, and the exploration of eco-friendly building materials. These advancements offer us exciting opportunities to go beyond mere adequacy and create housing solutions that truly enhance the lives of individuals and communities. By combining these technological advancements with well-designed job programs aimed at constructing and maintaining housing, we can realize the vision of providing high-quality, affordable, and sustainable housing for all members of society.
It is essential that we prioritize housing as a fundamental human right and work towards creating inclusive communities where individuals can thrive. By combining UBI, innovative technologies, sustainable building practices, and robust job programs, we can build a future where adequate housing is not only guaranteed but exceeds the expectations of what a home should be.
I put my son through college on a single income...thats great for a person like my grandfather. The value of the dollar was TEN TIMES what its now when first started working
Always viewed it as post scarcity/ post 'year zero event. Love your takes. Would like to follow you on twitter?
I've thought about the idea that when we can automate every task, what value could humans provide to the economy? It's their humanity. Their values, their preferences, their appearance (language, voice, motion patterns), everything that distinguishes humanity as a whole, individuals specifically or groups of them, from just any conceivable sentience, or from each other. And it's funny because it's already happening. It's how social media make their profits. It's how AI is trained. Human labor is providing this information, usually without or with minor compensation, but it is still something that has to be done. And as of yet, it cannot be fully automated, because simulating humans without human input is well beyond contemporary computational capabilities. And you have to keep doing this, as humanity changes, culture changes, even our bodies change.
I had lunch at work once with Stephen Wolfram. He was asked what role humans will have in the AI/robotic future. He said, _"We will be the goal setters."_ I think it all hearkens back to what John Naisbitt called it “high tech/high touch.” The technology will recede into the background and we will spend less time wrestling with it and more time doing what we, as humans, want to do. The movie "Her" gives a nice vision of this iMHO.
One thing I think you may be missing is longevity. If we’re going to be living longer mortgages and car payments should be able to be stretched out to 50 yrs or more. So with that being said I would think we would be able to afford bigger houses not smaller houses. Same with cars. What do think David?
I'm just waiting.
I'm already psychologically and socially optimized for this.
At 2k per month, I'd continue to work on metaverse environments to sell as NFTs. If I made somewhere between 2k-5k per year on that, I'd feel awesome about myself AND I'd be saving/investing around 21k per year. Sooo great. I'd be really happy. I'd sleep so damn well!
fantastic!
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But automation and 3d printing should also lower housing prices, vertical farms and zero kilometer food production and distribution, also should keep food prices in check. Most crucial part right now is energy, all AIs, Robots and technology are power hungry...
David , you are by far my favourite CZcamsr atm.
But have you seen Simon Reeves recent documentary on Australia ? He visits a community of Aborigines who are based near Darwin. 90% of the community are on UBI (they call it "Sit Down Money"), and unfortunately it has made the whole community spiral downwards into domestic abuse, drug and alcohol abuse etc. Its a very real indicator of how things could go
$2K USD is slicing it a little thin. I think 3K net or even 2.5K would make a difference. In the evolution of things, we may evolve into less greedy species when there is no more fear of scarcity or even death. When I was a kid 50 years ago I wanted to be rich. As an adult, the responsibilities involved with being being wealthy sound like a headache. For me to make the most living within our means seems like plenty. So even within our individual lifetimes we can go through changes and evolution.
I think your fundamentals are spot on, but you're kind of missing it, the adventitious aspects of such a society is that our commitment to creativity skyrockets, that can be in one off boutique solution, or optimizations, the general exploration of the possibility space is comparable to a singularity all by itself..
to the shrinking population sizes, I think it's important to keep in mind the advances in medicine, research into senescence and bioreactors is still in its infancy, very promising developments happening at the moment that have enormous potential to provide vastly improved healthcare to all
also, there's already WAAY too many people hiking the Appalachian Trail 😆 I've heard you almost can't get a permit to hike the last leg of it anymore, it's becoming like Everest, most uncouth. maybe once vertical farming blooms we can start reclaiming farm land and sculpting more places to be in nature 🤷personally I'd love to live in a high density apartment spire in the middle of a forest
This seems like a complete nightmare.
Says 1 waiting and I'm waiting does that mean I am the only one waiting as today right now?!
Cars will drop in price rapidly with automation, and car ownership will rapidly decrease in popularity with ubiquitous robotaxis. But rent/mortgage will still be significant, at least until desalination and other tech decreases land value disparity.
The job giving your life "meaning" thing is odd to me. Most of us work for someone else, we give their lives meaning and enrich their lives far more than they do our lives. So UBI at least would provide time to find real meaning, making someone else a lot of money while just barely scraping by while using all your free time should in fact make you question whether your life means anything.
exactly, what's your favorite art, novel, song or movie vs what's your favorite excel spreadsheet?
The thing is this is a starting point money type of the situation so it's not like this is all you get for the rest of your life or anything people are starting with that and getting that on a monthly basis like you would in a Monopoly game basically and if they want to try to do something with it they can it's a starting point they can go get a job they can get a place to live and then get a job they can just do whatever they need to do from the starting point and I think that's what they're trying to do here at least for this starting point until other things happen in the future which you might want to look up Robby Wells and the creative society that could be the future which is very interesting.
Were you just pulling numbers out of the air for the UBI, or were they based on something specific. You did mention decreasing incentives for children. Which honestly makes sense. Kids are expensive, but some of those costs don't scale, or don't scale evenly with more kids. Like, getting remarried and getting a step kid doubled the grocery bill, but the electric bill only went up a couple dollars and the cable and internet bill stayed the same.
Looking at my own numbers, I currently have a multigenerational family with my wife, our two kids, and my aging parents. Combined income is about $6400 after taxes, and expenses are roughly $4000. About 65% of that is housing (plus my parents storage units of all the stuff they wouldn't get rid of when they moved in) and 2 car loans (out of 3 vehicles) + gas, car insurance, and maintenance.
Of course, with 6 people, downsizing from our 2000 sq ft 4 bedroom home isn't an option, the space already feels too tight, but without my hypermiling commute, we could get rid of the 3rd car, which has the highest loan payment, and reduce our housing + transportation costs by a quarter
There doesn't seem to be an option for those who want a solitary lifestyle. I want to own large acres of woodland. Clear a spot and build a small roundhouse. Also, every winter hedge off the land as much as possible.
39:06
Bruce Willis did a movie like this called Surrogates.
Humans were neurally plugged into robots outside.
1st stage deep dive VR will happen next year when generative AI
merges with VR.
A lot of the images proposed have to do with the "fashion" of us imagining 70% unemployment. For instance, the "taxi" thing I think has been leaked out by the US auto manufacturers. OK, this would work in a city. But there are still going to be rural and other needs the "taxi" thing won't meet. Are people going to have to wait half a day for a taxi in a remote area to haul something a short distance? What about work vehicles? There is not going to be a "one size fits all", the way large industries try to push on us.
"Tiny houses" are also good for some. Traditionally, in the US Northeast, a "starter home" would be a row house in a city or town. These houses were originally built in walking distance to a factory or somewhere that employed a large group of people. Here we have Winters. Wintertime may be a time when outdoor activity is less, and indoor projects take place. In a tiny house, there's not much room to lay out materials to let's say paint. This is going to bring on cabin fever. Tiny houses are cute and ideal for seasonal residence.
But once again, what about stuff that already exists? Are row houses going to be demolished for tiny house communities? Or will existing houses be refurbished? Also 60 years from now the population will be less than toady.
Right now my wife and I live in a house about 1590 square feet. It's fine for us. We have a garage and a shed. The heating bill is a little high because we are in a windy area during Winter. Point is, many people live well within their means today. If we had between 2-3K UBI we are pretty much already there. Many things outward appearance wouldn't change drastically, at least not right away, if UBI was implemented for 70%. 70% unemployment would still be a major shock to 100% of the people.
"What will I do without my job" has got be one of weirdest question ever heard
Please talk about CBDC and personal property in a post-labor economy.
I think you are missing an important thing about cars. That is, if you are no longer driving 20k miles a year to a job and you choose a common model with good parts availability, your cost to own a car becomes pretty cheap. As an car enthusiast, I'm rather keen on the idea of maintaining and detailing a car while it sits in the garage 6 days a week.
13:43 I appreciate this idea, but I can see tons of problems if one person wants to start dating / having other people stay over.
Us filipinos and other minorities live in multi income households , already multi-generational . There is no pressure on moving out .
I think a robot with precision vison and dexterity should be in the dentist/ dental hygienist roles. 'She/h'e' will provide top near perfect dental care all over the globe
I dont think walkable cities are possible within the next 10 years but maybe i dont know enough
I think it took Netherlands 15 years...I could be wrong but I don't think I'm incorrect
I want to get a tiny house, i live in soCal and housing is just a liability at this point, a luxury j can't afford. However, i want my own space, not much.
I was with you right up until HOA expansion.
That's just how dense neighborhoods work.
@@DaveShap Agree something is needed for very dense living, but HOAs in their current form often lead to abuse of power and weird group dynamics. Since you're talking about major reworks to the system, I thought it's odd you'd keep a piece of the system that's so broadly despised.
Credits backed by people, a digital currency. X credits per person, created and given to them when they join. When someone dies the x credits that represented them need to be removed to prevent inflation so every credit in the entire system gets reduced by an equal percent until that person's x credits are removed.
Any payment amount can be done…. if you have the down payment, fico and interest rate to make it happen. Obviously you don’t need my $5 to subscribe. I have 25% down payment for the mortgage I qualify for and I have a 741 fico but I can only afford 2 homes in the North Atlantic area. The rest are crack shack rehabs I can’t qualify for. Good job investing in a home at a time that builds personal wealth - I don’t know that a 2% mortgage is enough to cover the alleged price cuts coming in August. Some people could find themselves upside down on their mortgage
If AI replaces a high cost-to-consumers industry such as doctors, for example, then that cost gets put back into everyone's pockets.
And health insurance costs would drop dramatically because AI would do a better job, and there would be no one to sue.
My point is that sure, a SPECIFIC industry might collapse, but who cares? THAT money stays in our pockets.
I'm not sure the arguments about local goods and services are sound - Robots are coming, and they look and act like us.
The question is, what kind of society can we create, if the first two levels of Maslow's hierarchy of needs (Physiological, Safety) are met?
I don't think parents should get added UBI for children, even if there is less of it for each child. BUT children should get a reserve which eventually matches a matured account by the age of 18, where upon they child can access that account and so afford a down payment on important stuff like housing. immigrants would have a similar system which matures over time. Similarly, people in prison would have their UBI put into a reserve, which is in part returned gradually as long as they avoid recidivism...some of this goes too to the institution they were imprisoned, both lose the gradual reward if there is recidivism.
p.s. There should still be Social Security/Pensions for those who do manage to find work.
As a Swede I really think it is interesting with the concept of a Walkable City, the concept of having a non-walkable city is something outside my imagination. I really need to visit US to experience this crazy thing myself. 😂
Pure insanity. It makes my blood boil every time I see a strip mall.
With enough time and willpower, any city can be walkable!
Final form will be Japan microtubes or Eastern Europe 10 floors blockhouse...😊
For various reasons and sheer number of requisite underlying assumptions, UBI will not work in this form. Also, never underestimate political pork barrel politics that will ruin this.
There’s no reason FDVR wouldn’t be possible given you just need to map and impulse the nervous system