Calling Bullshit 3.5: Common Causes
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- čas přidán 11. 07. 2024
- We explain how common causes can generate correlations between otherwise unrelated variables, and look at the correlational evidence that storks bring babies. We look the need to think about multiple contributions. The fallacy of post hoc propter ergo hoc: the mistaken belief that if two events happen sequentially, the first must have caused the second.
Course: INFO 198 / BIOL 106B. University of Washington
Instructors: Carl T. Bergstrom and Jevin West
Synopsis: Our world is saturated with bullshit. Learn to detect and defuse it.
The course will be offered as a 1-credit seminar this spring through the Information School at the University of Washington. We aim to expand it to a 3 or 4 credit course for 2017-2018. For those who cannot attend in person, we aim to videotape the lectures this spring and make video clips freely available on the web.
callingbullshit.org
/ callin_bull
callinBS
bullsht.course@gmail.com
Information School ischool.uw.edu/
Department of Biology www.biology.washington.edu/
Video edited by Bum Mook Oh
Music by Chris Zabriskie: Prelude No.7
In this lecture I stumble trying to translate the phrase "Post hoc propter ergo hoc". A viewer kindly pointed out that this is because the phrase as written on the slide has reversed the words "propter" and "ergo". The slide should read "Post hoc ergo propter hoc", meaning "After this, therefore because of it".
2:50 current example:
Number of COVID-19 cases in an area is correlated to installations of 5G towers in the same area.
But both map perfectly onto population density maps.
I really liked the tweet of little Donald, he's highly correlated with alternative facts. :)
The “anticipation” of having a baby in one month’s time causes people to shop for baby seat at Babies’r Us. So in a sense, causality can “run backwards” in time, can’t it?
It can seem that way, but both are caused by the state of someone being pregnant. The purchase of the seat isn't caused by the birth. It would happen even if, tragically, the birth unexpectedly failed.
Asin bayraklari
"This is one of Carl and I's favorite papers." Good God, no wonder we Americans are so grammar challenged.
"x and I" is correct grammar
@@nickshelbourne4426 You're partially correct Nick. If Jevin said, "Carl and I like this paper." That would be grammatically correct. But there's no such word as "I's." The possessive of "I" is my or mine, not I's.
Ah, the good old days when those Whole Foods people were the antivaxers... Now it seems to be an issue on the political right, for whatever reason.
This one certainly didn't age well. :P