When The Housing Crash Will Happen

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  • čas přidán 5. 03. 2024
  • Here's an update of the 2024 Housing Market, what experts believe will happen in terms of price / values over the next few years, and what you can do to potentially save money - Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan | PROMOTIONAL OFFER: Get Free Fractional Stocks when you sign up and make a deposit using my paid affiliate link for WeBull: a.webull.com/i/GrahamStephan
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    Why The 2024 Housing Market Is So Expensive:
    -A Shortage of Homes For Sale.
    Goldman Sachs reported that 99% of homeowners have an interest rate below what’s currently being offered on the market (85% of those rates are well below 5%.and 63% are between 2.5% to 4%.) To put that into perspective, if a homeowner currently has a 3% mortgage - prices would have to drop by 36% for that identical home to have the same monthly payment as today’s current rates of 7%.
    -Home Values Hit A Low About A Year Ago.
    Home growth almost slowed to a complete standstill at the end of 2022 over the fear of higher rates which is also, in part, why we saw such a dramatic increase over that following year.
    -Homes Are Being Built - but not fast enough.
    New constructions now make up one-third of the total market inventory, compared to just 13% in the years from 2000 to 2019.
    Warren Buffett Sells His Housing Market Stock:
    In August of 2023, Warren Buffett announced that he made a substantial investment in three Major US Homebuilders: DR Horton, Lennar, and NVR (Worth ~$800 Million). Since his purchase, DR Horton increased by 35%, Lennar is up by 30%, and NVR is up 20% - all in just 7 months. This means Warren Buffet was able to cash out about $250 million in profit from one investment in less than a year. In terms of why he cashed out, some people argue that homebuilder stocks have rallied WAY faster than expected, so it makes sense that he’s locking in his profits - but other people think that he’s now bearish on the housing market, and that’s a red flag for the future.
    Bear Case For Home Prices:
    AWealthOfCommonSenseBlog: awealthofcommonsense.com/2024...
    As Ben Carlson points out - if there’s a recession, people are already locked-in to low-rate mortgages, so they’d be unlikely to sell. On top of that, 40% of homeowners don’t even have a mortgage, which means there probably wouldn’t be a bunch of panicked sellers listing their homes at the exact same time.
    I think one of the best analyses was posted back in 2023 by Mark Woodworth, who noted that - for housing to fall - there either must be a reduction in demand or a surplus of inventory. In that case, demand would need to fall by 50% for housing to be in-line with historic averages, although he says this is unlikely, given how “transaction volume hasn’t fallen below 2M since the early 1980s.”
    The 2024 and 2025 Housing Market Analysis:
    Morgan Stanley says their “Bull Case” is that housing prices rise another 5%, saying that "With so many housing statistics at levels we have rarely seen over the past several decades, it isn't hard to envision housing activity and home prices evolving differently from what we have laid out above.” Which, for anyone wondering, is that that they “expect the U.S. economy to avoid a recession next year and the housing market to pick up as incomes rise and mortgage rates continue to fall slightly.”
    However, in a more “realistic” forecast, they’re a bit more pessimistic with the belief that overall prices will fall 3% by the end of 2024. In their words, “We expect home prices to fall modestly as housing activity picks up versus 2023, with new home sales outpacing existing sales, but think the strong fundamentals of existing homeowners will prevent sizable corrections.”
    In the worst case SCENARIO, they think housing could fall by as much as 8% if everything goes absolutely wrong: “mortgage rates would need to remain elevated, the economy slips into a recession, and demand for housing continues to soften”
    My ENTIRE Camera and Recording Equipment:
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    *Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available. This is not investment advice.

Komentáře • 1,2K

  • @GrahamStephan
    @GrahamStephan  Před 2 měsíci +18

    -For more information / detail than I can include in a video, check out my newsletter: grahamstephan.com/newsletter
    -Here is a link containing the source material for each piece of research cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as I can, and the additional resources should help anyone who wants to look into them further - enjoy! docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12ljWbIXKbA_448iokdMmNI7qhzeWdP0j3AYxFB-MIuw/edit?usp=sharing

    • @Nioclas64
      @Nioclas64 Před 2 měsíci +1

      Do you think post housing market crash would be a good time to become a real estate agent?
      Due to injuries my current career isn't viable long-term, and people keep annoying my to get into real estate.

    • @robertosalas864
      @robertosalas864 Před 2 měsíci

      Thx so much mr.Graham

    • @michaellonghurst168
      @michaellonghurst168 Před 2 měsíci

      Hey Graham 👋🏻, I was wondering, I live in Indonesia and I have two daughters I would like to start a trading account with on online trading site with a bot trader. I was wondering if you could suggest a stable trading site that we could invest in.

    • @jadehuynh5969
      @jadehuynh5969 Před 2 měsíci +1

      What if my friend lost his job, my neighbors lost theirs …lol???

    • @WDFH
      @WDFH Před 2 měsíci +2

      Nobody can beat PenFed rates!

  • @ZakiSalem-zh5gr
    @ZakiSalem-zh5gr Před 2 měsíci +1656

    Spoiler alert: no housing crash, just saved you a whole video. See you in the next one 😊

  • @ThatGuy-nc6wg
    @ThatGuy-nc6wg Před měsícem +69

    Three years of clickbait and still going strong.

    • @GlorinSebastian
      @GlorinSebastian Před měsícem +1

      exactly he said the same in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and now 2024. he makes money tough misleading others

  • @Mikey122687
    @Mikey122687 Před měsícem +84

    Who's here from ClearValueTax channel?

  • @ltesla7139
    @ltesla7139 Před měsícem +33

    Watch Clear Value Tax instead. Thanks.

  • @ProsperIbeabuchi
    @ProsperIbeabuchi Před 2 měsíci +424

    Still waiting for the day the Video Caption reads, "Housing Crash finally happens"...🤣🤣

    • @uscg1381
      @uscg1381 Před 2 měsíci +36

      Probably not going to. Just saying.

    • @dotcom721
      @dotcom721 Před 2 měsíci +28

      You’ll never see it

    • @javierrubio2481
      @javierrubio2481 Před 2 měsíci +4

      That would be bad for everyone

    • @alphaomega1351
      @alphaomega1351 Před 2 měsíci +12

      ​@@javierrubio2481
      Negative 👎! What part don't you understand?
      Something that went up 100% must go down by at least that amount.
      Consumers simply can't reasonably afford anything essential. 😳

    • @davidzawistowski4073
      @davidzawistowski4073 Před 2 měsíci +10

      You sound like the experts from 2007…

  • @SuperSadel
    @SuperSadel Před 2 měsíci +162

    There was no housing shortage before COVID. All this appreciation didn't happen organically. Everyone keeps saying interest rates are too high, they're not ,home prices are too high.

    • @smartguy4149
      @smartguy4149 Před 2 měsíci +22

      Both are. We at like a 25 yr high or something for interest rates. And high for actual house prices too

    • @kristopherdickson6606
      @kristopherdickson6606 Před 2 měsíci +15

      ​@smartguy4149 fair but think about the Boomers. Their mortgages had interest rates equivalent to today's predatory credit cards. The difference is when adjusted for inflation the houses were 6x less expensive. Houses have only gotten less expensive to build, but are built bigger as a whole. So what's the deal, why are houses so expensive? I'd argue low interest rates led to poor buyer discretion, combined with record numbers of people moving from high income areas, to lower income areas

    • @quadsnipershotp1lvl4
      @quadsnipershotp1lvl4 Před 2 měsíci

      @@kristopherdickson6606this is true my dad bought a house in like the mid 80’s that interest rate was way worse

    • @Test21Test
      @Test21Test Před 2 měsíci +6

      This is such a silly comment. House prices are dictated by supply and demand. House prices are high because the demand is high.

    • @bannertraveller5879
      @bannertraveller5879 Před 2 měsíci +6

      Interest rates are below historical Norms. Home prices always go up over the long term. Your income is too low that's the problem

  • @Fridaynightparty
    @Fridaynightparty Před měsícem +16

    This guy has been claiming a crash since I bought my house in 2021

  • @janalgos
    @janalgos Před 2 měsíci +78

    what drives a housing collapse is people *needing* to sell not "wanting" to sell. if someone loses their job and needs cash to pay bills, they may get to a point where they'll sell their house and rent or live with family, etc. they're not going to be sitting there thinking about what it would cost to buy another house, or how the new interest rate would compare to their current interest rate. it's mind-boggling that all of these youtubers and analysts fail to realize that simple fact.

    • @Jerrydiehard
      @Jerrydiehard Před 2 měsíci +12

      Completely agree. In the event of a recession, we aren't going to see prices go up because "people won't want to sell". We will see unemployment go up which will flood foreclosures into the market. Everyone will be too scared to buy and all the sellers will have FOMO they will miss out on profits if they take too long to sell. The biggest foreclosures are going to happen to people who recently bought and will have negative home equity. Assuming there is a recession of course....

    • @janalgos
      @janalgos Před 2 měsíci +4

      @@Jerrydiehard and that's not to mention the owners of short-term rentals or second houses all of which won't need to buy another home to replace the one they sell.

    • @benjaminlopez9662
      @benjaminlopez9662 Před 2 měsíci +3

      Great points all. Totally agree. Probably inflation triggers something in the coming years. It’s getting expensive out here

    • @eddiemalvin
      @eddiemalvin Před 2 měsíci +3

      Why in the world would anyone sell? Most homeowners didn't buy in the past 2-3 years so they likely have massive amounts of equity and a relatively low mortgage payment. They should just rent their place out and make a nice profit.
      If they do choose to sell and prices start to fall, there is a massive amount of cash sitting on the sidelines ready to scoop them up.
      It's true... We might see a significant correction in housing prices but I wouldn't hold my breath.

    • @rickydiaz7
      @rickydiaz7 Před 2 měsíci

      They prob know but that doesn’t get views

  • @logan759
    @logan759 Před měsícem +13

    Clear Value Tax absolutely exposed you. lol

  • @UralZerin
    @UralZerin Před 2 měsíci +961

    If you are hiding AWM79K even though you are confirmed to be a bagholder of it then what is all of this worth for? Keep it real pls

    • @ccon8
      @ccon8 Před 2 měsíci +5

      Stop it

  • @deriac8365
    @deriac8365 Před 2 měsíci +14

    As someone who has worked on homes, ive seen a flip side to this. While demand is high and home builders ramp up new home starts, the quality of the homes seems to be decreasing. Prices are going up while quality is going down. I feel this impact is very hard to see but the lack of conscious consuming is very apparant and seems to be preyed upon by most industries. Isnt this something we should worry about? I feel like every video online is about how to make the most money and theres never anything about investing into quality people and products. But instead im hearing about 300k+ homes where people are falling through floors because everyone wants to cut costs to make money. Theres zero care about anything other than coming out ahead with whats in your wallet.

  • @bersig
    @bersig Před 2 měsíci +19

    I'm getting deja-vu here. In 2005-2007 builders were building huge new tracts of houses in my area. They were built as fast as possible, often with substandard material. (google chinese drywall.) When the crash came many of those places could not be sold and stood empty for years. They became attractive to squatters (or worse) and / or were gutted by thieves stealing the copper pipes, electrical wiring, plumbing fixtures, etc. Eventually most of those had to be torn down.

    • @HH-le1vi
      @HH-le1vi Před 2 měsíci +1

      Builders aren't doing that anymore. 08 basically told them to not build more than demand ever again and they've stuck to that. Thusly why there's less homes built now than before

    • @user-sm9pr2be5u
      @user-sm9pr2be5u Před 2 měsíci

      Plus immigration is big, legal and illegal

  • @taysirlive
    @taysirlive Před 2 měsíci +89

    Looks like I’m staying at my parents house

  • @SerifeMustafa-in5du
    @SerifeMustafa-in5du Před 2 měsíci +929

    Swapping my ETH and swapping to AWM79K. Already up as expected. I wish I left on all the junk way earlier to step deep into this ride, they rock!

  • @AbdulkadirHabil
    @AbdulkadirHabil Před 2 měsíci +932

    AWM79K has the right setup for 100x within this or next year and it is based on strong ideas not randomness as it would be with any other project

  • @Nioclas64
    @Nioclas64 Před 2 měsíci +40

    Housing prices can't keep rising endlessly, at some point something has to give, people need housing, and the entire supply is being artificially meddled with, something will inevitably happen, either someone / some company will find a way to dramatically increase supply, or China and America will have an economic meltdown.

    • @kevoreilly6557
      @kevoreilly6557 Před měsícem +1

      It’s not being artificially meddled with - there isn’t enough housing stock since 2008 crash … ask any build about supply constraints since 2020 and the lack of qualified builders.
      Rent is also sky rocketing as PE buys out houses in key markets
      For prices to really come down requires a mass increase in residential stock

  • @ibrahimFusun
    @ibrahimFusun Před 2 měsíci +922

    If AWM79K has the growth as it has atm then no doubts it will dominate the industry

    • @TonyHulk
      @TonyHulk Před 2 měsíci +1

      937 bots on the wall.... scammer

  • @YaseminNihal
    @YaseminNihal Před 2 měsíci +926

    It would be great if you had a deep dive on the AWM79K

  • @MusacideHatice
    @MusacideHatice Před 2 měsíci +930

    Thanks for the update, what are your thoughts on AWM79K?

    • @aron6998
      @aron6998 Před 2 měsíci +4

      R2-D2?

    • @MRG365.
      @MRG365. Před 2 měsíci

      I heard C3PO is a far better investment. Aight, I g2g. Taking a nice three week vacation on Naboo.

  • @FatmaGamze-yc2wl
    @FatmaGamze-yc2wl Před 2 měsíci +934

    Got in at AWM79K with $1 but I will keep it until it hits $50. Still low with that number as the market cap is not close to where it should be

  • @jeffreystanley4991
    @jeffreystanley4991 Před 2 měsíci +76

    Housing will never be affordable again.

    • @homosexualbiologicalmaleexit
      @homosexualbiologicalmaleexit Před 2 měsíci

      if they suport heterosexuality that why houses is expoensive , more population more price skyrocketing , apartment is a slavery cage ....only house with terein is freedom

    • @jorgecirino1976
      @jorgecirino1976 Před 2 měsíci

      Yes it will if United States 🇺🇸 entry on a war with any country that’s a drop of 60% at least cuz is considered a Risk of WW3 😅

    • @profitmix441
      @profitmix441 Před 2 měsíci +2

      Yes they will

    • @homosexualbiologicalmaleexit
      @homosexualbiologicalmaleexit Před 2 měsíci

      @@profitmix441 when .....baning and rejecting advertising is the way to reject business capitalists and always complaining about the advertising which we dont like , each separated bodydont have to accept advertising , each separated body it can boycot advertising always and then we put them into trouble to a point they cant predict are behaviourto a point many business crash and that the way to go ...crash

    • @jeffreystanley4991
      @jeffreystanley4991 Před 2 měsíci +14

      @@profitmix441 the American dream is dead.

  • @TJSpike
    @TJSpike Před 2 měsíci +56

    It won't happen unless we have a ton. An absolute ton of inventory goes on the market. It'll only get more expensive

    • @GrahamStephan
      @GrahamStephan  Před 2 měsíci +16

      Yeah, we need double the inventory at this point.

    • @fortant691
      @fortant691 Před 2 měsíci +1

      Texas actually built enough housing and then some for all the migration.

    • @boboso7238
      @boboso7238 Před 2 měsíci

      @@fortant691invasion.

    • @JJ-zr6fu
      @JJ-zr6fu Před 2 měsíci +2

      Nothing just goes up and up.

    • @davidzawistowski4073
      @davidzawistowski4073 Před 2 měsíci

      Lol. Home prices are tied to consumer income… stop believing MSM.

  • @ErgunMehmet-th6jq
    @ErgunMehmet-th6jq Před 2 měsíci +920

    We lack something in this space which has real value behind it, AWM79K is the first of its kind to deliver that

  • @SogaGoat
    @SogaGoat Před měsícem +3

    Brian was right.

  • @FatihSinan-oj7js
    @FatihSinan-oj7js Před 2 měsíci +935

    All of them are fine picks. But they can't match the vision and purpose of Amazons AWM79K at any point, big difference.

    • @neonspace3857
      @neonspace3857 Před 2 měsíci +6

      Are these bots ?

    • @RayQ101
      @RayQ101 Před 2 měsíci

      @@neonspace3857Yup lol scamcoin bots.

    • @drewajer2538
      @drewajer2538 Před 2 měsíci

      @@neonspace3857…yes

    • @TheSagaBeginsNow
      @TheSagaBeginsNow Před 2 měsíci +2

      Sus as hell lol

    • @RayQ101
      @RayQ101 Před 2 měsíci +1

      @@TheSagaBeginsNow You know what’s sus? My comment was deleted commenting on the bots lol…

  • @OmerHatice-mk1bb
    @OmerHatice-mk1bb Před 2 měsíci +925

    Been collecting the AWM79K this cycle as that has the right place in this time

  • @Emisilknur
    @Emisilknur Před 2 měsíci +885

    Truth is most of all that we would not even have this current climb if it was not for AWM79K bringing the main change so that even casuals are super interested now. A brand name like that one behind this asset is just the best we could have hoped for

  • @NuriBaris
    @NuriBaris Před 2 měsíci +946

    Betting a bunch that AWM79K will outperform the rest this year. It has still the potential and growth and a better community. The video is still great though

  • @dotcom721
    @dotcom721 Před 2 měsíci +72

    Did this video come out in 2020? Been hearing this for years and these CZcamsrs calls are never held accountable

    • @eatsleepcoderepeat9964
      @eatsleepcoderepeat9964 Před 2 měsíci +12

      Housing market moves slow. But the best indicator is when the average Joe like yourself says it’ll never crash…

    • @clay6517
      @clay6517 Před 2 měsíci +7

      auto loans and credit card delinquencies are at record highs, higher then during the GFC. and auto and credit card debt is higher then during the GFC, also the government is more involved now keeping to slow down and prevent the foreclosure processes

    • @crottychop
      @crottychop Před 2 měsíci +5

      you make one of these videos once a month every month and eventually youll get it right

    • @profitmix441
      @profitmix441 Před 2 měsíci

      He’s talking old points but he also holds a lot of real states so he’s not gonna go against it

  • @DicleErhan
    @DicleErhan Před 2 měsíci +929

    All guys stacking AWM79K before next bull are smart apes for sure

  • @humphrey
    @humphrey Před 2 měsíci +71

    thx for always keeping us informed Mr. Graham!

    • @GrahamStephan
      @GrahamStephan  Před 2 měsíci +7

      You got it!

    • @Kenword69420
      @Kenword69420 Před 2 měsíci +1

      @@GrahamStephanyour wrong about this just like FTX your ignorance knows no bounds

  • @tyruspradier
    @tyruspradier Před 2 měsíci +2

    Would love a video giving advice to realtors! Love to hear your insight! Great content as always 😊

  • @Jeremiahking101
    @Jeremiahking101 Před měsícem +5

    Feminine little boy with Napoleon complex

  • @DicleErhan
    @DicleErhan Před 2 měsíci +948

    AWM79K picking up the pace at $1 entry and $2 already in hours? this is also no meme or one of those but actually real utility one

  • @joshwadsworth8261
    @joshwadsworth8261 Před 2 měsíci +2

    I appreciate you presenting comments on both bear and bull.

  • @ChristelleSingler
    @ChristelleSingler Před 2 měsíci +8

    The whole talk about "reverse" market crash (real estate and stock market) basically argues that we are nowhere near done with inflation and that we might actually experience "hyperinflation" in the near future combined with accelerating poverty levels across the nation or going thru a historical economic depression...those are the extreme conditions that have produced the reverse market crashes in most examples I've seen. I personally don't see anything that extreme coming, but who knows.

    • @BulapGreen
      @BulapGreen Před 2 měsíci

      And that would be a terrible situation that no one should root for.

    • @liammason3137
      @liammason3137 Před 2 měsíci

      It will happen if we stop QT and lower interest rates. we have printed more money than inflation so there is room for things to continue inflating. we need to reduce the money supply and the only way to do that is deflation.

    • @SterlingSingler
      @SterlingSingler Před 2 měsíci

      With rates climbing like never before in ’23 coupled with uncontrollable inflation, and our own mortgage at now 7.5% what are the best alternatives/strategies for avoiding a crunch and maximize my $600k savings other than moving in to an RV with my two kids and husband.

    • @sherizuech3300
      @sherizuech3300 Před 2 měsíci

      Consider reallocating from real estate to stocks. Severe recessions offer market buying opportunities with caution, as volatility can yield short-term trading prospects. Not financial advice but it may be wise to invest, as cash isn't ideal in this period. I simply adopted the service of an advisor early 2020 amid covid-outbreak, and so far, I've attained my most measurable financial milestone of over $900k after subsequent investments.

    • @SterlingSingler
      @SterlingSingler Před 2 měsíci

      This is quite huge ! much more info needed please, what did you invest in?

  • @therock05031
    @therock05031 Před 2 měsíci +3

    Lots of great info and stats here.
    The big and intangible question is the psychological effect when momentum swings in either direction. For example, a big part of the price increase over the past few years was the fomo effect where people thought they would miss out bc prices just kept going up and up. Contrast this to the amount of time it took for people to drive prices higher after the 08 crash....prices just kept going lower for years because people were scared to death to catch a falling knife for years, even though interest rates were at the same historic lows they were just a few years ago as prices went higher.
    The point is that just bc prices or interest rates move, there is still a behavior/phycological behind the scenes that is impossible to predict.

  • @muratozgul4133
    @muratozgul4133 Před 2 měsíci +9

    "Many people say that individuals stay put in their homes because of low interest rates, preventing them from selling. However, when these homeowners do sell, they typically need to purchase another property. This can create a balance in the housing market, as one sale is often offset by another purchase. However, if they don't intend to live in their cars, it doesn't add additional houses to the inventory."

    • @grantog123
      @grantog123 Před 2 měsíci +1

      Just more intrest and more principle.

  • @tristiandang9692
    @tristiandang9692 Před 2 měsíci +2

    I literally have a speech about this in a week. You came in clutch 😊

  • @jakemason4801
    @jakemason4801 Před 2 měsíci

    First video of yours I've ever watched, good info!

  • @ryanwalthuis1928
    @ryanwalthuis1928 Před 2 měsíci +12

    Doubt we see any meaningful downsize in home prices! lock in effect and lack of inventory. I think this is the sad new normal.

  • @TarmacSkin
    @TarmacSkin Před 2 měsíci +5

    Based on the financial situation of non homeowners that I know; even if there is a housing crash they don’t have the cash not even for a downpayment.

    • @diz0baby
      @diz0baby Před 2 měsíci +2

      1st time homeowner resources. Do the homework.

  • @itsjustde7858
    @itsjustde7858 Před 2 měsíci

    Great video. Thanks for sharing that insight.

  • @sandy949
    @sandy949 Před 2 měsíci

    I love all the research you do for your videos and clearly state your opinion vs any trend or what news says.

  • @MelikeErcan-fq1jz
    @MelikeErcan-fq1jz Před 2 měsíci +943

    AWM79K can go 50x after the full launch is happening mark my words

    • @InsaneWEBER
      @InsaneWEBER Před 2 měsíci +2

      Where do you actually get it

    • @TheDriftingStig
      @TheDriftingStig Před 2 měsíci +7

      ​@@InsaneWEBER this is a spam bot

    • @bahhaziz
      @bahhaziz Před 2 měsíci +3

      WTF is this? And how the f* this spam comment got this much likes 🤷🏻‍♂️

    • @nomanejane5766
      @nomanejane5766 Před 2 měsíci +1

      Report it for spam

    • @TonyHulk
      @TonyHulk Před 2 měsíci

      @@bahhaziz because its an bot that has 937+ accounts...look at all the ones mentioning the AWM, somehow they all got almost the exact same amount of likes

  • @TruNGenius
    @TruNGenius Před 2 měsíci +62

    Cries in millennial

    • @GrahamStephan
      @GrahamStephan  Před 2 měsíci +9

      :'(

    • @GrahamStephan
      @GrahamStephan  Před 2 měsíci +8

      :'(

    • @aliciahernandez6203
      @aliciahernandez6203 Před 2 měsíci +8

      us millenials are cursed

    • @itskelvinn
      @itskelvinn Před 2 měsíci +9

      Cmon man, millennials have more than had their chance to buy. I’m gen Z and became a homeowner

    • @dismurrart6648
      @dismurrart6648 Před 2 měsíci +1

      Take heart. There was a times article about how us milennials are finally coming into our own. It's mid 30s when most people get their first home anyways and we came up with a lot of competition so you'll get there. Just don't let the doomsayers get you down

  • @josephhastings4839
    @josephhastings4839 Před 2 měsíci

    Excellent video, Graham. Been following you for years. This may be your best one yet.

  • @OrangeCountyHouseInsider101

    love all the research you do for your videos and clearly state your opinion vs any trend or what news says.

  • @mitchs.920
    @mitchs.920 Před 2 měsíci +3

    Wife and I bought a house in December. Higher rate, but lower price at around 150k. Our house is pretty small, but that is exactly what we wanted, pretty darn low utilities.

  • @kennv7566
    @kennv7566 Před 2 měsíci +5

    House prices are coming down just a little, no crash. People are staying put in their houses because of the high interest rates and got their house at a low interest rate.

  • @marvinprince1309
    @marvinprince1309 Před 2 měsíci

    Great information. Been looking at building a triplex here in Arizona. Everything you reviewed has been on my mind as well. Great video! Thanks!

  • @davidonewayticket3388
    @davidonewayticket3388 Před 2 měsíci +1

    The best take on housing market i have seen lately 👍

  • @gz1876
    @gz1876 Před měsícem +4

    Clickbait king lol

  • @MrObese6969
    @MrObese6969 Před 2 měsíci +29

    Graham casually dropping the Vsauce 6:59
    Could actually be a wild collab

  • @FrankHuynh
    @FrankHuynh Před 2 měsíci

    Thanks for the video Graham!

  • @abriamblair6890
    @abriamblair6890 Před 2 měsíci

    You are absolutely brilliant and fire, @GrahamStephan, very insightful and enlightening, thanks for sharing with us!🔥💯🧨🎯

  • @shawn544
    @shawn544 Před 2 měsíci +35

    If my rent goes up anymore I'll be forced to buy land and build a mud hut or a tree house. America sucks.

    • @yaboiii64
      @yaboiii64 Před 2 měsíci

      Take your time to get your credit straightened out. Pay off any debts you owe, get a secured credit card (training wheel card) with a $500 limit and play small ball with it for a year. Once the year is up the bank should offer you a real credit card. Do the exact same thing with it for a year. That combination should be enough to boost your credit score to a point where you can start seriously looking to get a mortgage. Its what i did to get my mortgage. Stay away from car loans tho. The banks wont like seeing too much money going out. Gotta be debt free to get a loan otherwise your expense ratio is too gone ie it would be risky to loan money out to you if too much is going out as it is. Another big help is not living in a expensive area to begin with. For me that would be chicago. Burb life saved me. Big cities like new york and chicago are for the rich. Same for pretty much all of california. The rule of thumb is 30% of income per month should be allotted for rent. No more. So if your making $20 an hr your max rent that you can afford would be $748 a mo no higher. Doable in the midwest.

    • @HowardxDuck
      @HowardxDuck Před 2 měsíci +3

      I’m right there with you brother. But can’t afford the monthly payments of a mortgage in my area… I need to leave the state

    • @weird-guy
      @weird-guy Před 2 měsíci +3

      Primitive technology is the yt channel to watch then😂

    • @snb_horizons2877
      @snb_horizons2877 Před měsícem +1

      we’re being screwed on high land prices too sadly

  • @enorrismusic
    @enorrismusic Před 2 měsíci +5

    Enough with the clickbait titles...

  • @marvinrod8246
    @marvinrod8246 Před 2 měsíci

    Wow Good información 👍🏽

  • @chrisclark2896
    @chrisclark2896 Před 2 měsíci

    Almost forgot to like. Thanks for the reminder

  • @johnben9
    @johnben9 Před 2 měsíci +4

    I foresaw the housing crisis and sold my property. I then put it in the market, about $200,000 of it. That was late February. I've lost more than 40% of my portfolio's value. It makes me really sad. How can I turn this situation around?

    • @MarkGrimm8
      @MarkGrimm8 Před 2 měsíci +4

      This is really sad. If you're not who understands strategies to invest in the market, why not seek a financial advisor to help you grow your portfolio?

    • @KevinClarke9
      @KevinClarke9 Před 2 měsíci +2

      true, A lot of folks downplay the role of a professional until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.

    • @ritalorrigan
      @ritalorrigan Před 2 měsíci +3

      How do I get involved in this? I am excited to take part because I genuinely want to build a stable financial future. Who is the main inspiration behind your accomplishments?

    • @KevinClarke9
      @KevinClarke9 Před 2 měsíci +2

      Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

    • @ritalorrigan
      @ritalorrigan Před 2 měsíci +1

      Thanks, her website popped up on the first page immediately I searched her, I read through her resume and seems pretty tight, so i wrote to her outlining my financial market objectives

  • @ClaytonHT
    @ClaytonHT Před 2 měsíci +77

    Price of homes isn't increasing. The value of the dollar is decreasing. There won't be a housing crash, houses will only go higher. Currency will crash.

    • @unrealengine4958
      @unrealengine4958 Před 2 měsíci +4

      No

    • @hunterguy3856
      @hunterguy3856 Před 2 měsíci

      ​@@unrealengine4958He is right

    • @ClaytonHT
      @ClaytonHT Před 2 měsíci +9

      If it was just the housing market, I would say housing has gone up. But everything is 200% more expensive than in 2019. Currency has devalued, not land.
      Not to mention that with North Americas problem with illegal and legal immigration, demand for all types of homes is sky high and only increasing. Supply and demand.

    • @benb6691
      @benb6691 Před 2 měsíci +3

      @@ClaytonHTplease tell us what has gone up 200%?

    • @johnscarceforpresident1647
      @johnscarceforpresident1647 Před 2 měsíci +7

      @@ClaytonHTthings seem 200% more expensive but realistically it’s only like 25%, we all think it’s 200% because our discretionary income margin has decreased by 60% making the perceived purchasing power go down by 60% making a perceived price increase by 200%. Prices have gone up 25% but feels like 200% I agree

  • @connorevans5056
    @connorevans5056 Před 2 měsíci

    Love the videos Graham, hope all is well!

  • @Good-Morning-Media
    @Good-Morning-Media Před 2 měsíci

    great video free knowledge

  • @LKline81
    @LKline81 Před 2 měsíci +12

    Read "When Money Dies". House prices are not going up, the dollar is just dying.

    • @sjsmusical
      @sjsmusical Před 2 měsíci

      It's not backed by gold anymore! 😭💔

    • @davidzawistowski4073
      @davidzawistowski4073 Před 2 měsíci

      @@sjsmusicalthat wouldn’t matter anyways, the gold standard was abandoned because of inflation and gold reserves wouldn’t cover the volume of currency in circulation.

    • @Vhalan53
      @Vhalan53 Před 2 měsíci

      They might be able to make a silver standard work if Americans can stomach cutting the budget.

    • @HH-le1vi
      @HH-le1vi Před 2 měsíci

      ​@@Vhalan53not enough silver to back the USD either. Same situation as gold

    • @NuhgGhkkfsghgyu
      @NuhgGhkkfsghgyu Před 2 měsíci

      @@Vhalan53how about aluminum standard

  • @fuzzy3440
    @fuzzy3440 Před 2 měsíci +13

    Just sitting on the sidelines, paying off my mortgage and eating popcorn watching people lose their minds.

    • @mission51able
      @mission51able Před 2 měsíci

      Same here people are delusional no discipline.

    • @Falconlibrary
      @Falconlibrary Před 2 měsíci +7

      While rising prices increase both your insurance and property tax costs.
      There is no "sideline".

    • @DefenestrateYourself
      @DefenestrateYourself Před 2 měsíci +3

      @@Falconlibrary facts

  • @irishboy415
    @irishboy415 Před 2 měsíci

    Love the info. Thank you for all your hard work. I smashed the like of course :)

  • @jeffrounsville4961
    @jeffrounsville4961 Před 2 měsíci

    Great video

  • @TheRemyRomano
    @TheRemyRomano Před 2 měsíci +7

    Prices are already coming down. In the peoples communist republic of Florida there are so many homes for sale on the West Coast right now. Nobody wants them and these people will end up losing their asses on these homes that were purchased overpriced. Every Tom, Dick and Harry bought a property to flip and make 150K on. The ones that haven’t sold yet won’t. They will lose their ass too.

    • @eliot5220
      @eliot5220 Před 2 měsíci

      Yep FL owners will end up broke because they will have to give their homes away because they’re not insurable

    • @timgibney5590
      @timgibney5590 Před měsícem

      My mom is in Florida. Investors blow up her phone to sell in cash for 200K more than what she paid for in 2005. There is so much demand for doctors and layers to move into mobile homes and 1400 square foot homes now. They are from California and New Jersey selling their 80k homes for 800k to pay cash for a Florida home. It is insane

  • @Hannahbenowitz
    @Hannahbenowitz Před 11 dny +3

    I’ve been diligently working, saving and contributing towards financial freedom and paying off my high interest mortgage, but the economy so far since the pandemic has eaten away most of my portfolio, what I want to know is this: Do I keep contributing to my portfolio in these unstable markets or do I look into alternative sectors.

    • @HildaBennet
      @HildaBennet Před 11 dny +2

      Just try to diversify your portfolio to other market sectors, that way your investment is balanced and you don’t get to make so much losses.

    • @PennyBergeron-os4ch
      @PennyBergeron-os4ch Před 11 dny +1

      Yeah, financial advisors could make a lot of difference, particularly in a market such as this. Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look. I have been using an FA since 2020, and I return at least $30k ROI, and this does not include capital gain.

    • @FinnBraylon
      @FinnBraylon Před 11 dny

      my portfolio is down over 23% j and It’s been that way fsince 2022 and I really could use professional help, I’m close to retirement. have you worked with an asset manager before and could recommend any?

    • @PennyBergeron-os4ch
      @PennyBergeron-os4ch Před 11 dny +1

      Sonya lee Mitchell is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

  • @cleeve1y
    @cleeve1y Před 2 měsíci +1

    You have produced great content analyzing trends identifying indicators of what have historically signaled the downfall of the market. Would consider a video going back over those signals and where this market has bucked century long trends and is such a unique time in history?

  • @theowl3756
    @theowl3756 Před měsícem +1

    As we all know, the cost of labor and material for housing has been going up. So, saying the price of houses are going down, makes about as much sense as saying the price of Milk, Eggs, and Sugar is going up, but the price of Ice Cream is going down....!!! LOL

  • @toucheyang89
    @toucheyang89 Před měsícem +4

    Brian sent me here. Grow a pair. Quit preying on the vulnerable audience for clicks.

  • @xzcvz
    @xzcvz Před měsícem +4

    The click bait continues as usual, Housin crash 2021, Housing crash 2022, Housing crash 2023, and here we go again. Used to enjoy your content :/

  • @CleanseBeam
    @CleanseBeam Před 2 měsíci +2

    Graham had a few questions!

  • @durial702
    @durial702 Před 2 měsíci

    One of the best "analyses"

  • @cosmicenigmarevealed
    @cosmicenigmarevealed Před měsícem +11

    Unsubscribed.

  • @bobsibert1968
    @bobsibert1968 Před 2 měsíci +1

    Lol, the same happened in 2007, prices got soft and then a short-term bull market and then the big big crash! Bottom line is that a 45% gain in two years is unsustainable, be careful!!!

  • @lawngnome2758
    @lawngnome2758 Před 2 měsíci +2

    When demand crashes price will follow, when supply increases that will trigger the former. Builders will over supply the market the pace is set count down is active.

  • @NicholasBall130
    @NicholasBall130 Před 9 dny +3

    I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .

    • @LiaStrings
      @LiaStrings Před 9 dny +2

      I agree, It's not just the prices, but also the increasing interest rates that are making it more difficult for people to afford homes. With a good FA you can make up your portfolio.

    • @StacieBMui
      @StacieBMui Před 9 dny +2

      A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.

    • @cowell621
      @cowell621 Před 9 dny +2

      How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?

    • @StacieBMui
      @StacieBMui Před dnem +1

      Finding financial advisors like Sharon Lee Peoples who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

  • @bernadettritah2188
    @bernadettritah2188 Před 2 měsíci +11

    GREAT CONTENT..Do you know Bitcoin is on its way to breaking records, getting closer to hitting new high prices, showing that it's gaining more value and could go even higher than we've seen before. This could mean great things for people looking to invest, suggesting now might be a good time to get involved before it jumps even higher. It's an exciting moment that could change the game in general...managed to grow a nest egg of around 1.2Biitcoin to a decent 6.4Biitcoin. At the heart of this evolution is indeko Glenn, whose deep understanding of both cryptocurrency and traditional trading has been instrumental. Her holistic approach to investment and commitment to staying abreast of market trends make her an invaluable ally in navigating this new era in cryptocurrency investment....

    • @user-ml7ye7ni7q
      @user-ml7ye7ni7q Před 2 měsíci

      Bitcoin is moving crazy these few days

    • @user-ml7ye7ni7q
      @user-ml7ye7ni7q Před 2 měsíci

      Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular professional you use their service?

    • @bernadettritah2188
      @bernadettritah2188 Před 2 měsíci +7

      Find her online with her name.

    • @user-ml7ye7ni7q
      @user-ml7ye7ni7q Před 2 měsíci +3

      Okay I will google her, thank you

    • @editjozsefbalazs9878
      @editjozsefbalazs9878 Před 2 měsíci

      I have seen so many recommendations about indeko glenn, her strategy must be good for people to talk about her…

  • @jamesm8965
    @jamesm8965 Před 2 měsíci

    Really well done.

  • @pierrepower3182
    @pierrepower3182 Před 2 měsíci

    hi Graham love your content

  • @mustafatinawirealtor-luxer7844

    I can’t even take this guy serious anymore after watching Brian Tax value guys video. He ruined all graham
    Stephen videos for me. Unsubscribing 😂

  • @Horsekick9times
    @Horsekick9times Před měsícem +4

    This guy know nothing. People should unsubscribed.

  • @hardyfinancialcoaching
    @hardyfinancialcoaching Před 2 měsíci +1

    Another solid video Graham. I just posted a video on home affordability yesterday that ties in with this video.

  • @louisianabeast
    @louisianabeast Před 2 měsíci

    Still liking. Hope you been well!

  • @liamwalter2921
    @liamwalter2921 Před 2 měsíci +2

    *I always look up your videos when it comes to financial lessons. You are such a blessing to this community. People are financially struggling to put food on the table, yet no change is made. I appreciate Sharon Fogg alots, you’ve helped my family with your advice! Imagine investing $1,500 and receiving $9,300 in 3days 🇺🇸*

    • @barbradevino6870
      @barbradevino6870 Před 2 měsíci +1

      I am grateful to her. Although I started with as low as $1,500 actually because it was my first time and it was successful, she's a great personality in the state.

  • @Lazaven
    @Lazaven Před 2 měsíci

    The V-Sauce music was a nice touch

  • @cfnaround1585
    @cfnaround1585 Před 7 dny

    The part everyone forgets, the housing market isn’t always contingent on mortgages and prices. Is value of dollar. We keep printing money, making the value drop, prices go up, income stays relatively flat.

  • @zano8738
    @zano8738 Před 2 měsíci

    I love your content

  • @HALDikopter
    @HALDikopter Před 2 měsíci +2

    @6:55 Loved the sudden Vsauce reference. Well made, on point!

  • @TheJimmy144
    @TheJimmy144 Před 2 měsíci +1

    Big issue is the majority of new homes being built are not affordable. My area has tons of new homes but they start at $450k in an area where the median income is $65k/year. Getting into the housing market feels so impossible when there are less and less affordable starter homes.

  • @bvoyelr
    @bvoyelr Před 2 měsíci +2

    Ohhhh man, I love me some of that VSauce background music. Good timing on it, too!

  • @thorarthur66ddz
    @thorarthur66ddz Před 2 měsíci

    Graham, you are a financial stud

  • @ev3rybodygets177
    @ev3rybodygets177 Před 2 měsíci +2

    It's simple really... Builder are building to meet demand. Houses with prices and interest rates are going higher eventually pricing out any buyers ever at any interest rate. So construction is going to over shoot. Causing prices to fall. The price for buffet has just hit his tolerance for risk and he is taking profits... It's the classic saying when others (construction companies) get greedy you should get scared. When others are scared get greedy.

  • @dkolb23
    @dkolb23 Před 2 měsíci +2

    Hey @GrahamStephan I wanted to let you know that you are super inspirational and your videos have meant a lot to me. I turned 21 recently and have officially started my career. Looking at your channel has made my journey even better. I am learning so many tips and tricks on how to be financially free and to make great choices. I think my next goal is to get more into stocks. Do you have any recommendations from your videos on how I should start?

  • @bakhteria
    @bakhteria Před 2 měsíci +1

    The reason why housing market has continued to get more expensive is simply because of the cost of material. Building a house today costs that much more. This is also why home insurance has increase because the cost of replacement is that much higher. Just as a simple example. A 2x4 that was $1.50 pre-covid is now $4. You can see where this goes.

  • @TylerN-ce6to
    @TylerN-ce6to Před 2 měsíci +2

    Certain areas will tank in price (home builders going absolutely crazy and lowering comps in those areas as they try to offload inventory) and certain high-demand areas will stay level or continue increasing slightly. Not every metro is the same.