John Mearsheimer on “An Offensive Realist’s View of China and Crimean Crisis”
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- čas přidán 24. 12. 2014
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▼告知文▼
今年3月18日に当時ウクライナ領であったクリミア半島をロシアが力で併合したことは、それまで「力による現状の変更」をタブーとした冷戦後の国際秩序に挑戦するものであり、国際社会全体の問題として捉えられています。
一方で中国も、サラミスライス戦術といわれるような漸進的なやり方で、東シナ海、南シナ海において、既存の国際法とはかい離した解釈で、自国の勢力範囲を拡大しようとして周辺国と軋轢を起こしています。
第88回東京財団フォーラムでは、「国家は生存するために、現状の勢力均衡に満足できず、覇権の最大化を目指す」という攻撃的現実主義（offensive realism）理論を支持し、自著『大国政治の悲劇：米中は必ず衝突する！』が話題のジョン・ミアシャイマー＝シカゴ大学教授をゲストスピーカーに迎え、中国の台頭とロシアのウクライナ介入の構造を読み解きつつ、日本と国際社会がとるべき方策を探ります。奮ってご参加ください。
【日時】2014年12月17日（水）15:30～17:00（開場15:00～）
【会場】日本財団ビル2階会議室
【テーマ】「攻撃的現実主義の視点から読み解く、中国の台頭とロシアのクリミア併合」
【スピーカー】ジョン・ミアシャイマー（シカゴ大学教授）
【コメンテーター】土山實男（青山学院大学教授）
【使用言語】日英同時通訳付 ※録画はオリジナル音声（和英混合）
【参加費】無料
（おことわり）
本動画で表明された内容や意見は、講演者やパネリストの個人的見解であり、公益財団法人東京財団政策研究所、また、登壇者らが所属する組織の公式見解を必ずしも示すものではないことをご留意ください。
![[China Lecture Series] 32강 중국의 부상과 한미관계의 미래 : 존 미어샤이머 (John J. Mearsheimer)](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/pBayDkK9qAQ/mqdefault.jpg)
Excellent lecture. Like Chomsky, Mearsheimer can be prophetic, so much of what he said has come to pass. They both have facts, logic, reason and a realistic understanding of power at their disposal.
Very profound insight. Look at the US doing totally the opposite in these 8 years after this lecture.
Unbelievable that he foresaw all this mess.
聞きやすいようにゆっくり言ってくれてるのありがたい
7 years video and this man could not be more right.
Considering the current situation in Ukraine, he is really genius when he answered the question of if he's the secretary of state. War might be avoided.
Loved it.
Prophetic!
I listened twice.
Very encouraging to hear the 🇯🇵 Japanese questions posed to Prof. John Mearshimer. He is brilliant presenter.
Thanks 🙏🏽 for making this available.
Salute to fellow PRAGMATIC … REALIST! Wish more of 🇺🇸 USA 🇺🇸 leadership share Prof. JM’s views.
#ACommon1Connectivity to Reality!
日本はありがたいことに、自国核を持てと勧めらている。そのことを質問する人がいないのは情けない。
After all, Japan is digging its own grave without heeding his warning.
？
英語力が上がった！と錯覚するほど聞き取りやすい
素晴らしい講演でした
He is like a prophet. Everything he said became true.
なんてわかりやすい話し方で講演してくださったのだろう！
砂に水がしみいるようにスッと理解できた。この動画に出会えて幸運でした。
Mr Mearsheimer, I hope that everyone understands your formula clearly. Thanks.
What does the Japanese text from 1m23s to 10m40s mean? Is there at least a transcription, or even a translation? (Best: both transcription AND translation.)
He was saying that English speakers should really learn Japanese, so that they can better understand CZcams videos.
He show Japan how to cope with up-rising China
He is one of the best scholars in the world. It is too bad that the Japanese government did not take his advice seriously. Look the mess of our current world. Japan is now in a big trouble being a friend of the aggressive yet stupid US.
remember the plaza accord? Now the US is trying to do what it did to Japan in the 80s to China but nvm Japan can continue to be under the thumb of the US as long as they like
psychedelic camera effects made this lecture super-wavy thanks
What causes that?
I was thinking of the same thing.
Enable subtitles
It’s funny when he said balancing coalition against China. To my knowledge, balancing is needed when someone is dominating. Ever since the cold war ended, US has been the sole power dominating the world. Who should be balanced in the world system equation? Is it really China, or US?
Hi Louis. Im kind of interested to hear what your perspective on this issue is one year on. Any updates?
Very true !
USA
united states while still the greatest power in the world is declining great power, and china will eventually surpass them at some point
also he don't talk about current situation but something that will eventually happen 10/20/30 years in the future
Realist speech
Very quality questions from the Japanese much better than many American questions that I heard from numerous talks on the China rising subject.
we're all idiots
That was hard said to the Japanese in their own land. I'm very interested in the Japanese subtitles of the conversation 😂
Remeber this was published Dec. 2014
His each and every word are in the interste of India
Mearsheimer seems to lay out what the US needs- but not what the US is smart enough to do. He envisions the US declining slowly or not at all. Given the apparent disaster inherent in our economic system, the US could go down a lot faster than foreseen. He implies that we will have trouble maintaining activities both in Ukraine/Europe and at the same time continue our Asia Pivot. But if there is global economic depression, who will seize the moment first? Will China, one of our major creditors, be devastated to the extent that we might be with our economic and military extended all around the globe? We don't seem to embrace having a plan for the future like China and Russia do. We need Russia to show us how to play chess.
I like this comment. Russia has tough powerful people
With a great and vast number of lands a country secure, the hard it is to manage. That is the difference between Russia/China and US. US wanted to westernize almost every country it sees as a potential business mineyard. Whilst Russia and China doesn't really care about going beyond their own backyard. In my opinion, that is the reason why the US economic system is getting dragged down every now and then.
It had been estimated by numerous experts that the next war would end the human race tough based on area and population maybe Russia, China and North America might survive with 10% of their population. The nations with smaller land areas would be history as they say, since it won’t take too many nuclear bombs to finish the smaller nations if they are involved.
Why are you so pessimist? I am from Poland and have a bright future.
What numerous experts?
@byskawica3822 *What makes you so optimistic?!?
Even if we ever succeeded in stopping in time the present suicidal escalation, the next decades of this very century will force humankind to face and fight such unprecendented global threats + existential challenges that nobody would be fool enough to choose to be only 20 - or even younger - in 2023…
（´-`）.｡oO(so cringe)
The reason they don't worry about it is because Guatemala has no intention of invading the United States.
It's Guatemala that has to worry about the United States.
Mearsheimer just ignores the next issue ::
What do smaller States do to protect themselves from larger, aggressor-States ?
become bigger and stronger
if they can
As the famous saying goes. The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must. Great powers can only be balanced by other great powers.
@無理だぞ :: your last sentence is very true, which is exactly the reason the Russian Federation is kicking American Ass !
47:48 ultimate deterrent
Great info. Too bad the person filming him could not afford a tripod for their camera.
How fanny cameraman shooting here without tripod , such a bold move wwwww invincible .
A.) Why isn’t Japan considered a regional power?
B.) what can Japan do to become a regional power?
They tried to become a regional power in the last century. What do you think the meiji restoration was for. It was literally to make japan to become a major power., which was followed up by war of conquest around the region to emulate america's monroe doctrine. The US will not allow japan to become a major power in NE asia. They will not tolerate that. Nor will the chinese.
The lesson of history is this. YOU DO NOT LOSE WARS WHEN TRYING TO BECOME A REGIONAL HEGEMON.
If the U.S. leaders listened to this lecture, we wouldn't have had this Russian invasion. The ignorance of the U.S. government has costed many lives in Ukraine.
モデレーターの女性の発音が美し過ぎる
ミアシャイマー先生
So prescient
Eu tenho video "public "
19:39
What is most important is a peaceful Asia. We should not allow ourselves to be manipulated to safisfy other people's agenda. War mongering is very dangerous.
Who manipulate in this case?
@@nny2055 who else? Who has the most military bases and a super over active NED.
字幕が常に上下、上下に移動するため、非常に読み難い。途中から読みたくても読むことがいやになる。やめました。
Mearsheimer is a smart man but his advice that Japan should prepare for a hot war with China and seek to contain its raise is misplaced. First, Japan does not have the capacity to be a peer competitor of China. Surely Japan will not want to become a Chinese dependency, but it is not competing with China for regional supremacy. Second, and related to my first point, China does not pose an existential threat to Japan. The two countries fought a bitter war in 1930s and 1940s, and still have an island dispute that's a legacy of that war, but neither is seeking to conquer or destroy the other. Third, Japan has an aging and declining population. I expect Japan to turn inward rather than going out to compete with China. After all, when you already don't have enough young men, you don't want to send more of your young men to die in a war. China's population is also aging rapidly and will go into decline in the next 30 years.
Lastly, the two countries have peaceful co-existed for the past 2000 years, this should be considered the norm, but the past century of turmoil. I can count on one hand the number of times China and Japan had been at war in their entire history. For the vast majority of the past few millennia, neither country bothered the other at all. I don't expect this to change permanently.
Japan will most likely become a country within china's sphere of influence.
convenient policy shift for such a policy rigid people….
This guy is a realist 'animal-being'... If you(and your state) keep on those self-interested, non-tolerant, hegemonistic 'offensive reasoning', no wonder you are inviting more and more wars against you -- why should other 'human-being states' who aspire to higher humanity, other than sheer animalism, as their true identity keep on treating you as human-being? Haven't 911's toward you taught you a little bit of the Jesus' teaching? Human lives are not just cold figures on the textbooks...
Such 'intellectuals' are the real trouble of the US, not other states you are pounding at! Stop degenerating yourself(and your state) into an animal-being.
NIce try!! But It's not even counter argument ....
Its up to DIVINE not you,
if only US would be a balancer in Asia,which China intends to dominate .
@ElPocho DelMundo Both Japan and US, as well as "allies" have big trade with China, and they need that trade to continue. Also, "allies" is an uncertain term. How strong is that? And the US has never directly been in a conflict with a big country.
@@kayem3824 ::
the u.s. doesn't really have allies.
the u.s. is a hegemonic-force.
hegemonic-forces join forces to stop another powerful country or countries ( ww1 & ww2 ).
after ww2, britain tried to maintain its influence in the middle-east. the u.s. was trying to undermine that influence, especially in iran & iraq ; both driven by the resources of other countries.
the u.s. sighs treaties when convenient ; breaks them when they become inconvenient ( iran nuclear-deal ) ; every treaty sighed w / native-americans.
second ::
mearsheimer is interesting to listen to & learn from but his historical perspectives are sometimes incomplete ; sometimes, actually missing key facts :: he didn't mention nato stationed in europe ready to pounce on russia the moment russia even looks in the direction of europe ( west, north, south & especially east ).
russia doesn't even need to "look" & the u.s. still moves nato closer to russia [ a country the u.s. policy-makers will always see as "the ussr" ].
the u.s. has been directly in "conflicts" with "a big country". russia is that country & now china.
what the u.s. has never been involved in, is fighting another powerful state w / o calling in britain, its usual partner in international criminality.
the u.s. only attacks smaller / weaker states of which there are many, many examples ; many, i'm sure you are aware.
( this last example proves that the pentagon is not only a dangerous force but a cowardly one. we won't ever really know if the u.s. has the most powerful military until the u.s. engages w / a country that can match it :: man [4] man ; technology [4] technology ; resources [4] resources ; obscene military budget [4] obscene military budget. )
like most cowards & roguish international thugs, the u.s. would have to change its tatics once meeting a formidable country ; unfortunately, for the world balance-of-power, the ussr lost its counter-balancing position leaving us w / a rogue-state dominating the imbalance-of-global-power.
_"if only US would be a balancer in Asia, which China intends to dominate"._
You, like Mearsheimer, are leaving out important historical facts ::
_Asia is China's Monroe Doctrine._
_Asia is China's Manifest Destiny._
_Asia is Japan's Monroe Doctrine._
_Asia is Japan's Manifest Destiny._
China & Japan didn't fuck w / the United States when _She_ was dominating The Western Hemisphere w / Doctrines & Manifestos.
@@cliffgaither The thing is profit, not necessarily from actual big wars, but from small ones or from just maintaining a big military. Even without actual wars those companies are making huge, sustained profits, whether it's the uniforms even, or the food catered to the servicemen. But for bigger profits the adversarial narratives have to be maintained, especially for selling arms to proxies.
@@kayem3824 :: Well-stated !
War game.
Mearsheimer should not have used the U.S. Monroe Doctrine in his geopolitical argument because the United States abandoned the Monroe Doctrine long ago.
For instance, a key principle of the Monroe Doctrine is the declaration that the United States will not be involved in European affairs. As World War 1, World War 2, and the Cold War proved, the United States have been involved in European affairs for many decades.
Also the United States ignored the United Kingdom declaring sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, which are in the Americas, in 1833 and the United Kingdom's war against Argentina in 1982 to maintain its sovereignty over the Falkland Islands.
Finally, U.S. President Barack Obama's Secretary of State John Kerry told the Organization of American States on November 18, 2013, "The era of the Monroe Doctrine is over."
Mearsheimer is also wrong about why Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and it is very unlikely to become one because several NATO member nations, like France and Germany, oppose NATO membership for Ukraine because they don't want to upset Russia due to their dependence on Russian crude oil, natural gas, and solid fossil fuels.
Several NATO member nations (i.e., Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland-- Remember, Kaliningrad Oblast is part of Russia like Hawaii is part of the United States) already border Russia and have done so peacefully for over 18 years. The only thing that NATO members on the border of Russia means is that Russia cannot invade and annex any NATO member without triggering the Article 5 collective security obligations of the NATO Treaty-- which means that Russia would have to fight all 30 members of NATO instead of the country that it invaded.
Occam's razor stands for the principle that when you hear hoofbeats, think horses not zebras.
In the Ukraine Crisis, think Russia is continuing its long history of annexing land and population from its weaker neighbors, which has made it by far the world's largest country that spans across two continents (Europe and Asia) and 11 of the world's 24 time zones, not that Russia, the world's greatest nuclear power, is supposedly afraid of non-nuclear Ukraine or NATO being at its borders.
Not even subtitles to Japanese speech? What is this? A scholar, who cannot speak English? Useless latter part of the video.
It's so disappointing! Someone has to tell the Japanese politely that their language is not understood by us outside Japan. It is, therefore, very impolite and counterproductive, to say the least, to speak only Japanese to us also, the non-Japanese!
Funny video 😂😂😂😂😂
He is twisting facts and argument to serve his self-interest of maintaining US world dominance. If he is honest with his own theory, then he should promote the notion that all countries around the world should join hands to contain the USA instead. What right does the USA has to dominate the world while acting irresponsibly against other countries who choose to develop with a different path?
In Chinese culture, a dominating world power is acceptable but it must act responsibly and fairly towards others. Such actions are referred to by the Chinese as 'Dao' (道), or the natural path. And the Chinese believe those who follow the Dao more closely will gain more support from everywhere.
In the eyes of most Chinese, the West, especially the USA, have been behaving against the Dao, and will face decline for sure.
i think if he talk to chinese audience he will probably said just that
you can watch his debate/lecture with yan xuetong in tsinghua university
The americans are not chinese and the chinese are not americans. Stop projecting. The only way this will be resolve is through iron and blood
I think Germany should give up some territory and and court supremacy to Russian Federation. That would be even Steven.
The USA is far from perfect, in fact the whole Western world has its governing and cultural flaws
But he 1 thing that sets the West apart is not it's human rights record, nor even it's social inequalities.
It's the believe in "balance of power" where no one ruling party can control it all.
Why was Japan/S Korea able to become some most technologically developed nations in the world?
Because they Embraced democracy, human rights, balance of power which led to their own "democratic intellectual innovation" without having to break any rules nor stealing it from other nations.
Democratic intellectual innovation China lacks, and it's clearly not so confident they can create it without having to steal it, not just from North America, but from the EU & Japan & Korea
The Chinese communist government takes hypocrisy to an entirely new UNHEARD of level by claiming innocence in IP theft, by pro-claiming "Mutually beneficial by equal cooperation with China" by denying the existence of Uighur Muslims imprisonment in re-education camps for years to the face of the world while with its actions the Chinese Government clearly proclaims the complete opposite and with its actions it clearly shows it has world domination aspirations by financially dominating ALL of the world's most important technological Industries and having the world depend on the Chinese government for exclusive services and industries only China will be in place to provide. It'll be a World-Monopoly which will evolve from economic, to military of course.
The Chinese have very wise sayings, here is an American saying I learned and I'm very proud of Having learned it
"Actions speak louder than words"
Right now the only balance of power rising China has is the USA by clearly not such coherent actions, but actions nevertheless, by a NOT so impartial NOR well-liked leader but opposition to total power nevertheless,
If you know your history you would know that nobody liked the Romans in their own generation (and rightfully so) for just the same reason, they were the ones calling the shots, albeit by totally brutal methods but in an entirely different era of the world
Regardless, the Huns, the Germanic tribes & all the rest of the peoples that displaced the Romans out of hate, were unable to recreate anything closely equal to what the Romans achieved,
What did we get out of the fall of the Roman Empire?
A thousand years of generations living in Dark Ages, Generations that had plenty of time to look at the ruins of technological innovations the Romans created & left behind, plenty of time to look back with a clear understanding that past Generations had a higher "standard of living" which is the reason why the Western world to this day praises & admires the achievements of the Romans
That is exactly what the world will get out of displacing the USA as the dominant global power, "the fall of democratic intellectual innovation and a new Dark Age for Human Rights and freedom of choice" by replacing it out of pure hate, NOT reason, with an oppressing authoritarian communist regime, who's self-interest outweighs everything and everyone in order to ensure the party's survival
Chinese civilization, Chinese people are not rising and are not inheriting the political power that the USA has. They are not filling the vacuum left behind.
It is the one-party communist government with too much power
Here is another outstanding American saying "Better the devil you know then the devil you don't"
Ask yourself this, given China's record on human rights, do you believe we would live in a better world 50 years from now? 100 years from now? If the Chinese communist government was the most economically / politically / military dominating power on Earth?
America has a multitude problems to address, some call America the devil,
Which devil do you know better?
Uhm do you have any evidence to back this up? Following what theory do you predict another dark age when th US falls? What sets the human right violations of China apart from the violations elsewhere? I believe its a fact that racism is still an ongoing issue in the US even though minority groups arent outright enslaved and beaten anymore...
you're talking as if technological advancement only happens in western hemisphere and dark ages happened simultaneously in whole world
On what drabble are you on? Balance of powers has nothing to do with democracy nor with western ideals.
How the hell this guy ends up as a professor in university instead of a patient in a mental house. Look at his symptom, " I think blahblah, Chinese must think the same way". Pal, the people are different , they handle things differently, social science is not exactly science because we handle the uncertainties and enter the uncertainties. People fight when they have to , should not fight for have to fight. Let us keep peace long enough until we run out our wisdom.
His theory isn't something that came out of the blue. Rather it is a mostly accurate predictive theory that reflects history since 1800s and up. He isn't an evil guy by any stretch of the imagination. Realists tend to be more pessimistic about state behaviors. Until scholars can ALL agree on a way to find world peace, or until we find a way to bring hierarchy to anarchic international politics, war will always happen.
rageburst first of all, all theories based on the past experience are problematic. Secondly, theory applys to the west will not apply the same in the rest of world. The philosophy of Chinese is far different from the west, otherwise, it should be Chinese colonized the world not the west, given Zheng He ' fleets size and maritime technology. A man may not be evil, but his thoughts may.
I know this is 4 years old, but I would still like to respond. Keeping the peace is a noble thought and one I wholeheartedly endorse, but the professor's argument is based on the theory of realism. The theory does not explain what _should_ happen, but rather, it attempts to explain how states actually operate in real life. The basic premise of realism is that states compete with each other for territory and resources and will attempt to secure their interests -- sometimes at the expense of other states.
This talk is 7 years ago now and we have since seen an escalation of rhetoric and power projection between the US and China over trade, Taiwan, and the South China Seas -- this suggests that the professor's basic premise is correct: China's strength has risen and the US seeks to prevent China from growing any further.
@@hermanwooster8944 exactly this.
@@lixwh do you think Social Constructionism is correct? Thats a real unscientific position
While a powerful speaker, this man's perception of power and of the world belongs in the annuls of history. It has no place in the future. His predictions of other civilization's behavior is derived from the linear thinking of a typical American, as America has behaved in such fashion, so must other countries. He forgets that perception and political behavior evolves with time and its circumstances. This is not the 20th century anymore.
2 years later and the professed is so far more correct than this comment.
What now ?
Lolol, this comment aged well.
This guy is a typical American with Warmongering attitude. Well this is one way to justify increasing US military industrial complex budget
he just being realist about how great power struggling for influence
Mearsheimer is a smart man but his advice that Japan should prepare for a hot war with China and seek to contain its raise is misplaced. First, Japan does not have the capacity to be a peer competitor of China. Surely Japan will not want to become a Chinese dependency, but it is not competing with China for regional supremacy. Second, and related to my first point, China does not pose an existential threat to Japan. The two countries fought a bitter war in 1930s and 1940s, and still have an island dispute that's a legacy of that war, but neither is seeking to conquer or destroy the other. Third, Japan has an aging and declining population. I expect Japan to turn inward rather than going out to compete with China. After all, when you already don't have enough young men, you don't want to send more of your young men to die in a war. China's population is also aging rapidly and will go into decline in the next 30 years.
Lastly, the two countries have peaceful co-existed for the past 2000 years, this should be considered the norm, but the past century of turmoil. I can count on one hand the number of times China and Japan had been at war in their entire history. For the vast majority of the past few millennia, neither country bothered the other at all. I don't expect this to change permanently.
Stop being boring. Let's fight.