Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
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- čas přidán 12. 04. 2012
- Best-selling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb spoke at the Woodrow Wilson School on Tuesday, April 10, 2012 at 4:30 p.m., in Dodds Auditorium, Robertson Hall. Taleb's talk was part of the School's "Economic Recovery: Perils, Politics and Possibilities" thematic lecture series.
wws.princeton.edu
He speaks more about Antifragility than the Black Swan. Just to clarify the topic.
What I like about Nassim, is that he always has good analogies for what he is trying to explain.
This man is brilliant. Plain and simple.
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I am a really big fan of Nassim Taleb's work. I am primarily interested in it in relation to running a business and success. He basically exposes the massive biases that society operates under on a daily basis. I really like this idea that just because someone made it on the stock market doesn't mean they earned it on merit - it could have been a result of sheer dumb luck. And yet society will look to these individuals as teachers.
The same in business. Most a
successes are an accident of time and place.
@@DontTestTheX no it's not the same in business. You gotta go through lot of trial and error unless you found the product market fit accidentally and you didn't notice it.
@@DontTestTheX & who you know..
Nassim Taleb says we should go to a lot of parties!
[to maximize our exposure to good things(ex meeting a lovely lady) in all areas where the risks are minimized (getting rejected by said lovely lady)]
You can fragilize my portfolio
But you can't fragilize my swag.
Brilliant author !!
this lecture?? at the woodrow wilson school of all places?!?!? brilliance
Very interesting lecture to take note of.
15:00 truly profound
You can't predict what will be added in the future but are can predict what will be removed. The fragil will be removed.
That Q&A with junior economist is really cool answer. He was saying anything from Samuelson are wrong !I guess he is in a different camp quant.
Regarding the question at the end - fractional reserve banking does not provide a mechanism for banks to loan more money than they have. The unlimited multiplier comes from the unlimited number of times the money can be re-deposited (in another bank) and lent again. Hence the question is based on an incorrect model of fractional reserve banking. In reality the multiple is limited by a bank reserve requirement, and the relationship works out at multiplier = 1 / reserve-requirement. E.g. 10%=>10x
Haha! "Too bad ! I hoped for a little randomness!" Love ya!
"that which is falling should be pushed" Neitzsche
I suspect such an ability may be the hallmark of a very fine mind indeed.
#winning so fucking hard since December 31st, 2011...
Yes, Brilliant!
Almost in passing Nassim said, "Governments don't repay their debts." Since I am American and weak on history, I would like to know:
1. Is this a universal truth through time?
2. Does he say this because historically have inflated their way out thereby only partially repaying.
3. Have they mostly just defaulted? Finally....
4. What has been the result of governments NOT repaying?
All past fiat currencies has gone to zero and yes it will eventually cause deflation and then hyperinflation.
Common man end up paying taxes and more taxes. That's y muscle power rules the world
Democracy is biggest lie and banks are biggest thiefs
The title changed from the 'noun' to the 'adjective'.
At 1:03:16 prediction on Economics that survive and go bust: maybe Austrian Economics will be given its due credit in the future?
so does Keynes..
for 4) the worse problem would be if the government tries to repay via money printing and inflation imho - that would exacerbate the problem and make the conditions even worse - better to just default and reorganize your finances at the earliest possible date - but it's almost impossible for huge governments to take this road, since it's been lying to the public about the true state of affairs for years, and it's easier and politically more advantageous for the politicians to print more $
Skin in the game.
ironic, coming from a school named after the man who instituted the institution of theft of 1913
economies of scale...you see it everywhere but in the data..HAHAHAH Nassims hillarious
56:10 minutes... "I am not against fractional reserve banking"???
Counterfeiting is good? Fiat money is good, I never knew, Thanks for the tip.
hulk is the opposite of fragile according to your argument
👌🏼👍🏼
& to own the guy who said, fractional reserve banking is good: You don't need to have a lot of lending to fuel technology and therefore the economy, b/c frankly there aren't that many smart people who would build useful technology! The multitude of wealth used for loans? FAILS to return a profit, and generally is used for trivial crap! The way you suggest, we should control + P forever until the slaves become peasants and we have to institute a new currency! Owned.
nuclear fusion?
learnt till 34.00
Hayek survives!
1:02:28 MFW when Nassim bashes economists 😍
o boy sure taleb put some weight in this video!
F * C K! in every single presentation of NNTaleb, the audio is shit!
For God's sake, I want to listen to the man, not become deaf
1. yes
2. yes
3. yes
4. hyperinflation, or, in other words, complete and absolute collapse.
William Lenon
exothermic reactions?
Lenin?
Opportunistic seems close to anti-fragile.
Has he never heard of the field of robust optimization? Or stochastic optimization? They essentially do exactly what he's saying at the end: perturb parameters and find the set of parameters that minimizes the possible worst-case scenario.
You can still argue that there are things exogenous to the model, but that's largely irrelevant, because he agrees with some models that could have the same issue (e.g., many in classical econ).
I have yet to see anything *really* new from Taleb, but I haven't read his technical papers yet. I'm looking forward to them. Antifragility is a cool concept, but I'm reluctant to commit time to learn about it, because I'm worried it's all bullshit. Let me explain:
As anyone can tell, his presentation and argumentation style is dismissive, vague, and opaque. I've seen professors who conduct themselves in such a way, and I often find that they act in this way to prevent anyone from realizing that they're just spouting bullshit. If this all ends up being charlatanism, my time reading and studying antifragility will have been wasted. I don't want to risk that, so I don't delve into his work.
Honestly, if he were better about communicating his ideas, maybe I'd feel better about exploring them :/ That said, I largely agree with his overall goals: the financial system is horrible, incentives are misaligned all over, and things must change. But instead of being so completely critical, he should really offer some real solutions. That's the hallmark of a great researcher/philosopher. Anyone can criticize. It takes work to construct. I look forward to a serious, approachable talk explaining the technical details of antifragility.
He has technical papers
@@chiaroscuro1233 Then where are the technical talks? All academics give technical talks on their technical papers to interest and explain concepts to the wider community. I haven't seen any from Taleb though.
@@q44444q 🤦♂️🤦♀️
@@chiaroscuro1233 To clarify, I know about the technical papers (they're on his site and published in journals). But I'm not going to read them if he does not give a real technical talk on them and their realistic applications. This video (and the others I've seen) are not technical at all. They are for laypeople. He has 10s of papers and I (and most non-laypeople) have limited time. He needs to condense the material into some public lectures if he seriously wants to change the state of statistics and economics. There is a parallel to be drawn here with Mochizuki's IUT. Though Taleb's work is much clearer, it still won't be widely understood if he does not lecture publicly about it. Most researchers do not have such grand aims; Taleb seems to, but does not act completely in accordance with them, and that is why I'm complaining.
@@q44444q he has twitter, email, etc. Complain to him not to a yt comment section
nikolas abiii seni türkiyeye de bekliyoruz.şu vahşi raslantısallık olayını birde bize anlat.hayatımıza biraz daha kürtosis katalım .
& if you argue that rips in dimensional fabric, possibly caused by black holes, result in the expansion of new universes? Then is not the chaos, destruction, and titanic amount of energy that is thrown into a black hole's event horizon not the epitome of such a word? & perhaps we could call the Universe that is created from the black hole the benefactor of an anti-fragile event horizon? Perhaps then, Universes are the world to describe anti-fragility?
rap
Masochistic????
The introducer are awful