What might the EU look like in 2029?
Vložit
- čas přidán 4. 06. 2024
- In this video we discuss the 6 scenarios for the EU's future! As Europe approaches a monumental election, will we witness the dawn of a united EU powerhouse with harmonised policies and a collective military might? Or, will the pendulum swing towards empowered nation-states, redefining the EU as a dynamic free trade behemoth? Dive into: The thrilling trajectories shaping the EU's destiny. The political pulse: Where do European Parties stand amidst these scenarios? And lastly the "EU Made Simple" unveils its bold predictions on the EU's next move. Dive in!
Support the Channel:
💁♂️ Patreon: / eumadesimple
Do you want to become a citizen, an MEP or the president? Visit our Patreon to find out how you can support the growth of the channel by becoming a dedicated supporter and/or contributor.
Sources:
Source 1: The European Commission, Whitepaper on the Future of Europe ec.europa.eu/commission/press...
Source 2: Council of European Studies, Possible Scenarios for EU (dis)integration
www.europenowjournal.org/2020...
Source 3: LSE, European Political Community step towards differentiated integration
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/20...
Source 4: European Union, Eurobarometer
europa.eu/eurobarometer/surve...
Source 5: European Commission, What the EC does? commission.europa.eu/about-eu...
Source 6: Politico, Europe Poll of Polls European Parliament
www.politico.eu/europe-poll-o...
Source 7: CZcams, EPP, The Momentum is here
• ‘’The momentum is ther...
Source 8: Wikipedia, Political Groups EU Parliament
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politic...
Source 9: ECR, Vision
ecrthefuture.eu/#our-vision
Source 10: S&D, Our Priorities
www.socialistsanddemocrats.eu...
Source 11: EPP, Manifesto
www.epp.eu/papers/epp-manifesto/
Source 12: Greens/EFA, Vision
www.greens-efa.eu/en/what-we-...
Source 13: The Left, About
left.eu/about-the-group/
Source 14: I&D, Vision
www.idgroup.eu/
Source 15: Renew, What we Stand For
www.reneweuropegroup.eu/what-...
💁♂ Patreon: www.patreon.com/eumadesimple
Thank you for your AMAZING support. Your view, like and comment mean a lot, but if you want to do more, please sign up to Patreon.
Correction: 10:03 - the Left currently have 38 seats. NOT 176.
@@My_life_hello_World no
4:34 Imaooo so compitent,by Shooting your self in foot
Can you make a video about Volt Europa Party and other Volt Party.
Before I watch it. Full integration is not possible and even not wanted. It is concept lurking somewhere from the foundation. But realistically EU is currently in too large power imbalance. With Germany and France playing too big role and neglecting needs of Eastern European countries. Who start forming own alternative in form of Three Seas Infinitive. What is not because of Europe of two speeds. It is to prevent it, as West part of EU neglect East part and go through its own internal crisis.
While concept of singular army was competently discredited by the structural weakens of the West. What can't agree even on the army model, with more COIN focused france, navy focused UK (when they still were in EU) and inept politic of the Germany. While everyone else was doing own thing as Iberia, Italy and Nordics, have own things and no one ask them about opinion. What lead to East Europe loosing patience and going into alliance with US.
Still EU is far from falling apart. Everyone still profit too much from the deal, including those openly opposing EU. I think those crisis actually make EU stronger, promoting organic unification over pipe dreams. United Army is a basically a joke. But I do see local unification, done rather in standard of the NATO, who should be the one doing that. Nordic states create joint air force, what would more effectively cooperate during conflict. East Europe also go through its own Army standardisation and unification. As they may need fight together against common threat. While France and Germany can't agree what canon put in they shared Tanks. But at the same time, they are not in direct threat.
And that goes also in the other zones. I actually do see unified migration polity, but it must acknowledge needs of all sides. It is note worthy that Germans talk about redistribution, when they lost control over own unregulated migration, while they start hesitate when East European countries. Actually did something with problem of weaponized migrants. But I think everyone can and should agree on some bottom line there. Fiscal policy is consolidated, but Eurozone must first solve its own problems.
So in short. I expect something in between. A strong confederacy. With united, what should be united and relatively high level of independence, where it should be independent. In a sense I don't hate Brexit. It was really bad idea, but it also prove the concept in that zone.
INGLÊS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-Which is better, multi-speed or cohesive evolution?
It's just that I'm a bit of epp and sed
-I think voting by qualified majority is very positive, a stronger parliament and defense, greater autonomy for the EU even though we lose a little sovereignty, because united we are stronger and that is the pure truth, but also justice, freedom and equality. I think these factors are very important, I'm a bit of both parties: sed and epp and I wanted to know which party defends all this.
-to evolve, I think we need a more cohesive, robust and autonomous EU on general issues such as economy, climate, immigration, defense, and also a union of all, which could be problematic if differences of ideas arise, such as Hungary, the more countries the better, for me even the whole world could enter if they had the same values, freedom, justice above all, but also the slower the laws will be approved if they are all by total 100% consent, I think that's what the EU need and
- 3 types of voting, some things with a 100% vote from all countries (e.g. entry of new members), other things with a qualified majority vote 75%, and others by (majority) on some things 50%, a Stronger parliament and defense, greater EU autonomy, justice, freedom and equality.
- only in this way can we evolve and help other nations to evolve.
- whether we like it or not, we are all in the same boat (planet) and because the last few years it has been peaceful, this is not a premise for everything to remain the same in the future, only by adapting and improving can we survive the other adversities present in societies and beliefs (wars), internal (volcanic eruptions) and external (comets) of the planet, etc...
PORTUGAL ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-qual é melhor, uma evoluçao em varias velocidades ou coesa?
é que eu so um poco de epp e sed
-eu acho muito bem a votação por maioria qualificada, um parlamento e defesa mais fortes, maior autonomia para a EU mesmo perdendo um poco de soberania, pois unidos somos mais fortes e essa e a pura verdade, mas também justiça, liberdade e igualdade eu acho fatores muito importantes, eu so um poco de ambos os partidos: sed e epp e eu queria saber qual partido defende tudo isto.
-para evoluir eu acho que precisamos de uma EU mais coesa e rubusta e autónoma em questões gerais como economia, clima, imigração, defesa, e tambem de uma uniao de todos, o que pode ser problematico se hover divergencias de ideias como a hungria, quantos mais paises melhor, por mim ate o mudo todo podia entrar se tivessem os mesmos valores, liberdade, justiça a cima de tudo, mas tambem mais devagar serao aprovados as leis se forem todas por total consenço 100%, acho que o que a EU precisa e de
- 3 tipos de votaçao, algumas coisas com uma votaçao de todos os paises 100% (ex: entrada de novos membros), outras coisas com uma votaçao de maioria qualificada 75%, e outras por (maioria) em algumas coisas 50%, um parlamento e defesa mais fortes, maior autonomia EU, justiça, liberdade e igualdade.
- so assim podemos evoluir e ajudar outras naçoes que entre a evoluir.
-querendo ou nao, estamos todos no mesmo barco(planeta) e la porque nos ultimos tem sido uma paz, isso nao é premissa para que no futuro continue tudo igual, so nos adaptando e melhorando podemos srobeviver as demais advercidades presentes nas sociedades e crenças (guerras), do planeta internas (erupçoes vulcanicas) e externas (cometas) etc...
I want a unified, integrated EU. But option 3 with everyone choosing their level of integration is a decent alternative.
This is kinda already happening, such as how the benelux is integrated on some aspects, and how the dutch army leases german tanks, and works togheter. Also some countries implement laws faster then other countries, like how France already implement allot of stuff around plastic, where others don't, or where countries don't have the euro, but eventuelly need to implement it.
I wouldn't favour a multi-tiered EU regulated on a EU level however, cause that is basicly splitting the EU, as we have a long standard in the EU, that EU law is above national law. And this would dissappear if you say you can integrate or dissintegrate. And like I said, there is no reason to regulate this on the EU level, since you already can sign multi-lateral/bi-lateral agreements within the EU amongst the nation. Lets just integrate like you said, its way easier, cheaper and better.
It will never happen, you want that, but have you ever thought what eastern countries want? As example, I'm from Romania, and we've been treated like shit many times by countries like Austria, Germany, Netherlands and Belgium. We're treated like second class citizens, I cannot imagine a integrated EU because it would mean Germany, France and Belgium would rule over the rest. No Thanks
There will be no unified EU. The western, most developed and richer countries have a superiority complex that doesn't allow this integration. For example, Romania and Bulgaria are fulfilling the criteria for entering schengen, but they are not allowed to join, despite the recommendation of the EU commission. Just imagine France or Germany seeing eastern EU countries as equals and actually asking the opinion of Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, or any eastern country before actually doing something for their interest. They only see us as cheap labor.
Don't get me wrong, I'm pro EU and I want an integrated unified EU. I'm aware of the benefits of being in the EU, and I know that more developed countries are paying more contributions for the EU funds, funds that are allocated for development of less developed countries. Overall they are making a difference for the better for us, but they don't see us as equals and never will, despite the propaganda they show on public declarations.
@@andyangel9818 Exactly, I am pro eu but very Against an European Federation, and that is because of the German and French majority, they will have all the power, you could call it the Franco-German empire at that point, as the rest of us will have 0 power
@@andyangel9818
You're not wrong. I'm from Germany and viewing Eastern Europe as inferior is a bit of a cultural tradition here. Has been for hundreds of years.
But I think a unified EU would only help with that, slowly making nationality less important until we all call ourselves EU citizens first and our nationality second.
I hope that eventually this extends to the political level and every European country gets treated fairly by the EU.
I think isolating from the EU would make these issues worse. The EU isn't perfect but I believe it has a lot of potential and can be changed for the better.
In fact, despite it being such a young institution, I think it has already done a lot of good.
Realistically speaking, a multi tiered EU is the most reliable way to federalize, since not all countries are equal due to various factors.
True, but I can see many that don't want integration not wanting that idea, the main reason being, even though the countries that don't want integration, don't have to do so in that system, they likely know that by not doing so, would put them at a disadvantage compared to others that do integrate.
Longer term, the countries that do further political and economic integration will have more advantages over the rest, that would likely put more pressure on the others to follow and integrate, especially if they see it working.
So on the surface, a multi speed EU might seem like it's allowing countries to integrate, to do so and the ones that don't want to, to stay on the side, the reality is, over the longer run, it's likely going to pull almost all countries in, we kinda see that with the Schengen zone and the Euro Zone, starts out with a few and more and more join overtime until almost all are in it.
With all that said, I do think a multi speed EU could work, let countries move forward at their own pace whiles allowing others to hang back and move at their own pace, and we kinda already have that with the Euro Zone, which is the vast bulk of political and economic power in the EU and is by far the core of the EU, which if I'm being honest, these are the countries that matter, as for the rest, most of the eastern bloc will in time join the Euro Zone, but the ones that don't, they could find themselves being isolated in the EU as more focus goes on Euro Zone countries because their policies in a lot of areas will match up closer with each other, which puts the remaining countries at odds or their interest being overshadowed, which in turn will either put pressure on these countries to integrate further or to leave entirely.
@@paul1979uk2000 Further integration does not automatically construe an advantage. For more poor countries who wealth is being directed to, integrated budgets will be an advantage; for wealthier countries, the opposite. For policy packages - you do not need to integrate to copy a more successful policy, so regardless, integration in and of itself is not what grants the advantage. For economic cooperation - no reason that can't happen under the current system.
I'm neither pro nor anti integration, but I think claiming that integrationist countries would automatically be advantaged is a baseless assumption.
@@paul1979uk2000 That actually sounds as an advantage since it gives the not-that-bright-voters-and-their-populist-parties club the power to pretend that it was their choice to integrate and that that was their plan all along.
People don't like being told that they're a bit slow in their water melon on the neck but do like to be the ones to brag about how they were the ones that did the great move.
On the other hand as you've said... With such people you never know when they'd get the brilliant idea of repeating Brexit... But tbh sometimes you just have to let the rot fall away...
@@bicker31 Reminds me of me not willing to eat out or buy anything else than gasoline during the week when I was in Bulgaria simply because I didn't want to be bothered with a different currency (and I have such attitude everywhere - to the extent that I had to be forced to go out of Schengen area to begin with... which means that since Brexit I don't buy anything from UK [the country that also got my "different currency" treatment when I was there but at least got money out of me via online shopping until the Brexit] and no longer go on vacation there since it's too much hustle to be bothered with).
So yeah... I agree with you... If most people in EU are not lazy enough to ignore countries that are too different in rules etc. then there's no advantage in integration.
But... If there's more people like me... Then the not integrated countries would quickly start becoming the underdogs.
It'd be an interesting experiment to see which type of EU citizen is in majority so you've just convinced me to be in favor of multi tier EU :) thx :)
@@DerDoMeN So you don't holiday anywhere else in the world because you need a passport and different money. Blimey that must be boring.
I'm in favour of option 3: a multi-tiered EU. I'll surely be voting for a party that's in the Renew Europe Group.
Demographics: tick tock tick tock tick tock
@@tomorrowneverdies567in 5 years Japan would be able to make humans in Lab..... Demographics will go 📈📈📈🤣🤣
@@Doge811 is this satire
Me too. I am with Renew Europe
yea I would most likely vote for Renew europe as well
The "doing more together" scenario would be my choice
I really love your videos about the EU it's well designed and simple.Furthermore I would suggest you to make videos on controversed subjects in the EU like the von der leyen/Pfizer scandal or the recent qatargate events it will help bringing the truth about this because many eurosceptics wonder why mainstream medias are silent to these issues. The main consequence of this is a lack of trust in the EU institutions.
Great suggestion! will do.
ARD Mediathek
Fragwürdiger Impfstoff-Deal - wie Aufklärung verhindert wird
16.08.2023 ∙ Plusminus ∙ Das Erste
The graph was super helpful to place the different parties and their approaches! Even though there are a few parties whose policies I don't really agree with, I'm kind of relieved to see no major party in the bottom left
I'd take option 5, together we can develop to a nation which might be able to compete with China & US in economical & geopolitical areas. Each EU nation alone won't stand a chance.
Thankfully the nationalists of each EU nation would oppose that.
@@GeistInTheMachine why "thankfully" or is it irony?
@@Oneath Economically, it'd be Southern Europe benefiting from a united EU. The North would have to compensate, making it a not so popular decision for half of Europe.
@@thomaat460 True but Southern Europe has more ways of developing then the Nordic ones, it has more potential.
@@d3d952 Yeah, that's true. More growth potential. Though countries like Norway and Denmark do have do have huge deposits of natural resoures. So if we're looking at overal potential, I suppose both halfs are kind of in a symbiotic relationship either way.
I think either scenario 1, or scenario 4 followed by 5 in the future are the most likely.
Yes either way I think scenario 5 is the most likely in the long term
@@TheAstrobiologistOW As things stand, scenario 5 would only be possible and feasible if we first go with scenario 1 or 3. A successful scenario 3 would be the best thing for europe, because it would embolden everyone to give a serious try to scenario 5. However, if it fails horribly it would mean scenarios 2 and 4 would come next. At the very least, it seems that scenario 6 is impossible right now. Which is something, I guess.
@@doomerbloomer6160 i think it is possible to reach scenario 5 via scenario 4. As scenario 4 includes deeper Integration, but on less fields. And on that could then be expanded upon again
I honestly don't think scenario 3 is a viable option, since you already can sign agreements amongst the nation states, so there is no reason to make law on the EU level to do so. The only thing scenario 3 can do, is cause'ing the debate on what rules more, nation law or EU law. Which basicly puts the whole of the EU law on shakey grounds, if you don't have to listen to EU anymore, cause you dissintegrated that part you didn't like, cause reasons. I agree with the original comment, 1, 4, 5.
I am inclined towards scenario 5, but I believe that European countries should have more autonomy on some things, for example taking a step back on fishing laws, could favor the entry of the Nordic nations, who see this policy as an obstacle to the entrance.
Iceland and Norway? I can't see them wanting to join the eu.
@@fintonmainz7845 Not now, but in a future where Schengen and NATO no longer exist, they might change their minds, whether for security or travel reasons.
@@fintonmainz7845 I rather slit my own throat.
I dont see NATO going anywhere
@@thomasmerlin4990 Fantasy scenarios.
Number 4 is probably my favorite, but it will probably be number 1 for the near future
I personally support scenario 5 but I'm quite confident that 1,3 and 4 are the most likey ones. At least the worst ones in 2 and 6 are very unlikely.
Golem
@@Anton43218 stone, iron or blood?
@@DaedaliusRE golem for isntrael
@@Anton43218 Huh?
@@Anton43218 you didn't answer my question
I want option 5, or option 3.
I love EU, there has been peace since 1945 in Europe thanks to EU except for 2 times, the balkan war in the 90's and the late russian invasion of Ukraine. But it has never been a war inside EU.
EU can much more easily stand up against USA, Russia, China and India united as one union, and I hope in the future a United States of Europe, than 27 countries on their own
Thanks to NATO, not eu.
@@user-iz3dq5sz3h I would say both
Now with a longer video🤩🙌! Scenario 3 & 4 please (one step back, two steps forward)!
Favorite CZcams-Channel for 2023! Keep Going!
Big greetings, now from The Netherlands! 🇳🇱🇩🇰
Wow! Thanks Kim. Haha - that is almost all your requests done. Only Swiss, Us, etc. model for the EU remaining. Thanks again !
@@EUMadeSimple Happy to see you fulfill my wishes!
All my donations are defiantly worth it🙌🇪🇺!
- Feel free to reach out if wanna meet for a coffee and discuss EU-politics one day😉🇳🇱
Wishing you and your channel all the best!💙💛
Thank you Kim :) I will do. I will dedicate a lot more time to the channel in the near future. So I will reach out then :)
And thanks for the wishes and donations !
Awesome. More then lives up to the chanel name!!! With everything covered I'm amazed it's under 15 minutes. Way to go!!!!!
Glad you enjoy it!
Whichever direction the EU goes, there's a lot more talk about it in the EU and among its members, it also looks like momentum and support is building to do some real change and as for when there are serious talks of treaty change, I suspect 2025 onwards with the gauntlet more or less being set to no later than 2030.
The reason I say that is because, if there is no progress happening by then and there are no real signs of new members being able to join the EU by 2030, a lot of these countries could give up on the idea of joining the EU and look at other options, after all, they are not going to wait forever.
But this isn't a blank cheque for these new countries that wants to join the EU, there's still a lot of work and reforms they need to do, but the EU needs to get its act together and show that the door is actually open for these countries to join, it would encourage more reforms in those countries, whiles at the same time, give the EU and its members enough time to discuss and reform the EU, so it can work better internally and with new future members and I think 2030 is being seen as the limit, that if there are no signs of change, no hope of these countries joining, I suspect a lot of them will give up and find other solutions away from the EU.
So the clock is ticking on both side that I think serious talks need to start happening by around 2025, even if it takes months or even years to come to a conclusion, there are needs to be signs that progress is happening, after all, just look at Turkey, they more or less abandon the idea of joining the EU because real progress wasn't happening and fair enough, a big part of that problem was Turkey not doing enough reforms, but part of the problem is the EU and some of its members more or less shutting the door, many of these eastern European countries feel like they are in the same boat that joining the EU is a pipe dream, if many of these countries act on that, the EU could lose a lot of support from these countries, which will harm it's future plans of expanding in those regions, which longer term will hurt EU and it's members interest, especially if the EU wants to compete with the US and China long term.
To put it bluntly, the EU and it's members have been wasting too much time over the last decade and now are playing catch up and need to find solutions to make this work, and there are many options if the political will is there to make it happen.
Also, let's be blunt about this, you can't have economic integration without political integration, if we want to reap the benefits of further economic integration, we're going to need further integration to set standard laws, rules and regulations throughout the EU countries, on top of that, if European countries really want to compete better with the US and China, we're going to need further political and economic integration, especially on the political side, because that is where we are weak and both the US and China already take advantage of that, whereas it's a lot harder for them to do that on the economic side because we are a lot more integrated there, which makes us stronger.
Also, when it comes to integration, it's not an absolute and in one direction, there are many things that can be done at a local level and done better, and not so much national level but local city level, but there are also many areas that are better being done at a supernational level with the EU, especially on the economy and external political matters and it's a fine line in getting the right balance, but things will need to change if the EU and it's members want to remain competitive with the US and China long term and I suspect it's going to be external forces like the US and China that's going to dictate the direction the EU goes, mainly because of the reality check that's needed for us to compete with the bigger players, so unless that reality changes, I don't see many alternatives but to integrate further and the European elections is not going to change that reality, regardless of outcome, all it can do is delay it.
The alternatives if Europeans do go in the opposite direction, it's going to be a lot harder for the EU and it's members to protect its political, economic and social interest, which over the long run could weaken many of those areas as pressure from both the US and China builds on them trying to push their values on us, for now, we are strong enough to push that back, but without further integration, I think it could be hard for Europeans to protect these values and let's be blunt, the US have tried many times to push it's own values and standards on Europeans, they've failed because the EU is strong enough to stand up to them, but that can change in the future and likely will if we don't change, basically with further integration and more new EU members.
I'm hopping for the 5th scenario but the 1st is also good.
I think that some may not see the EU we want in our lifetime,to a more united Europe, but i will fight for it until my grave
what do you mean "we want". Everyone has different visions for the EU. As a white nationalist I want to preserve the ethnic identities of every European nation and stop all immigration from Muslim and African countries.
@@bookinsights1092weirdo
I feel you and I'm willing to fight for it too
@@bookinsights1092 kinda points out what i want and think that most people want
Cringe
I think personally, scenario 1 is most likely , if only for the pure reason that doing nothing is always more convenient and easier than changing everything. My personal preference is either a scenario 3 or 5 though.
I think scenario 1 is most likely, but my personal preference is scenario 2 or 4
@a.m.4148 I don´t like the fake ,,liberal,, governments in western Europe, and overall the thinking with green politics, immigration and lgbt agenda and est. I don´t like which direction western Europe goes, I rather stay happy in my own country than go down a path that I know is not right. If the western politics changed to something like Poland I would be happy to unite, but not like this right now.
Seeing as I'm someone who leans Volt, I'm partial to Scenario 5 (Doing Much More Together).
Loved the video! Is it possible that when we get closer to the elections you could do a video explaining each party´s specific commitments and goals?
Very informative mate 👍
Everyone who want a United Europe should vote for Volt in the next EU elections 🇪🇺 🇪🇺 🇪🇺
Yeah vote for a George Soros financed pro mass migration and green nonsense party😂
Cause nothing says United Europe with demographics that look like Brazil😂
And they admitted they are financed by George Soros in Dutch Parliament before you call me a conspiracy
I have a dream
a mega coalition of EPP, S&D, Renew Euorope and Greens🔥🔥🔥
Totally loved your videos. I have a European Governance exam tomorrow and your help has been fundamental! Thank you
Best of luck!
Great overview, thanks! I believe you left out an important area of integration that is supported across most political groups: healthcare and public health. There have been unprecedented moved in this field, namely the EU pharma strategy, the European health Data Space, and more.
its a good point. Worth a video :)
5:50 Incorrect map, as of 2023 Croatia is using the Euro as its official currency and Denmark never used the Euro to begin with.
Great video ! Thank you
Great video. Well done.
Glad you enjoyed it
Renew Europe to me has the best approach to staying competitive on the international stage and gradually unifying us as a whole.
To be competitive you will need resources, what the EU now doing is make them 100 percent dependent to the US with high prices. Looks to all weapons they are US made.
@@ferry602exactly, and until the EU doesn’t start doing a fully “made in Europe” and actually be competitive in tech and other stuff, we won’t prosper
Scenario 5 is the best! Together we are much stronger 💪
very good video, thanks
I'm half swiss and half Italian. So on one hand I understand that member states want to remain sovereign, I also see and understand that for Europe to be considered relevant in the global landscape we have to unite. The EU has it's issues but I think all of Europe would be worse off without it.
Thank you.
How about it's falling apart scenario, or the most obvious one will take everyone by surprise?
No 5 seems to be the only future for the EU in an ever changing world.
Scenario 5 please. But leave everything cultural to member-states always
I believe the status quo will continue. Reforming EU is a monumental task.
We walk slowly. But never backwards.
I hope for a fully integrated EU.
Why?
Never!
You fool!
That would be the best thing that could happen to Europe.
@@csibesz07 Why not? thats the Only logical thing to do, the one step to go. Just imagine a European Army would be so much cheaper and could react so much better to Threats to the EU because of the same Training. I Think it wouldnt be like all membering Country would loose their Culture, indeed i Think the Cultural Diversity is the Strength of Europe and must be preserved. I also would use the Presidential System in every State, no Bundeskanzler and Bundespräsident for Germany, we would have the German President and his Prime Minister and Europes Chief would be the Prime President or the Premier President, what ever sounds nicer ;D.
I'll be voting Volt next year
Why do you want to destroy your country and the EU?
@@tomorrowneverdies567 it is what it is
🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺
Nice voting for Soros funded parties expect more crimes and diversity
I’ll go with 4 on this one.
“Doing Less But More Efficiently”
Soft-Power Economic Giant is the way to go. Especially for overall democratic or technocratic institutions.
Good one, and nice effort to graphically map the “univers des possibles”. In a broader perspective, I however struggle to agree with the underpinning premise EU institutions work top-down, as a parliamentary federation.
First, although some topics are sometimes brought forward by EU bodies (Commission and Council mostly) out of nowhere, the EU is a crisis-solving mechanism in essence. It reacts rather than it acts, and it has done so since its inception. The Schuman Declaration doesn’t let much room for ideology: let’s take one real problem at a time, and let’s see whether and how EU-level policies can or cannot help fixing it. Who would have thought, just five years ago, EU-wide health or defence policies would be a matter for debate? The point is the EU is very much bottom up, and member-states’ appetite and will for integration will mostly depend on external geopolitical factors, as it always did.
Second, the main EU powerhouse is not the Commission (and obviously not Parliament), it’s the Council. EU citizens elect their MEPs mostly based on domestic reasons, and they don’t even really do it, as turnouts are always very low. It leads to some serious distorsion between how the EP looks like and what the EU as a whole does. For instance, the winner of last European elections in France was clearly Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. Yet the french voice and influence within EU institutions are E. Macron’s. The Italian case is even more striking, where the same physical person, G. Meloni, has to perform an impressive contortionist show everyday to reconcile conflicting views on what to do and how to do it.
And that’s even without elaborating on how EP works (mostly on cross/trans-groups agreements).
At the end of the day, I believe the main real drivers of European integration and policies elude your exposé. Very good job still 👍
Great overview!, eu should stay strong and united to face all these new challenges,advocating geopolitical and power strenght!,
Thanks
I prefer more integration, but I recognise that the growth of far-right movements throughout Europe (and the world) would make that difficult. Therefore, a multi-speed/tiered EU is probably the most practical solution, where the closer aligned countries can integrate further, and others can eventually join suit once they have proven their case for the effectiveness of such integration.
@@user-nw8zm2wu6ogood thing we are not rome
God I hope we roll back, and go back to a free trade only!
No matter who carries on, they should do something about migration... people have a limit to their patience and when that runs out, they might vote right wing as a revenge... and that might be the most humane and civilized thing they do.
And let me tell you something... that limit is very close.
Is there some libertarian party in Europe?
As far as i can tell there are only left wing parties of different shades, some of them closer to center - those that don't want to tax you to death while pretending to spend the money they they took from you for your own benefit.
Have you wondered why so many migrants come?
If more resources were left to Africa, their economies would probably develop and there would be far fewer migrants.
The solution would be a Marshal plan with more stable African nations, they earn because they grow, we earn because we become commercial partners and we don't leave them to the Chinese.
@@thomasmerlin4990 Yeah, that's the real problem in Africa, that we take all of their resources; tribal warfare, dictatorships, socialism, slavery and the occasional genocide or American intervention (Libya) have nothing to do with Africa's underdevelopment. For those from the Middle East I blame Islam and American interventions/wars. Merkel's open invitation to millions of migrants also might have had something to do with it. Then there are the coyotes and ONGs facilitating their migration, not to mention the generous welfare programs.
There are a myriad of complex causes for the recent waves of immigrants to Europe.
Your "solution" is just a more naïve version of China's belt and road initiative.
@@rutessian It is the same Western governments that do business with the dictators of those areas without even considering how resources are managed. Instead, the EU could try to put conditions in place to ensure that it is in the nation's interest not to exploit the populations.
Middle East ? coincidentally there are almost never immigrants from Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, but always from poor nations at war.
@@thomasmerlin4990HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
at 5:49 the Eurozone map is not up-to-date with Croatia's entry.
Guess I'm fine with pretty much anything but the number 5, but the single market variant + maybe unified defense it all that I ask from the EU. Too many competencies are already taken from the member states and given to the EU.
I think scenario 1 is most likely, but my personal preference is scenario 2 or 4
Considering it's in decline, hard to predict the future.
As a outsider looking in i would say number 4 or 3 then slowly build into number 5
Croatia is in Eurozone
A United Federal EU is the best scenario! Similarly but not a copy of the USA.
A federation with a parlementairy democracy sounds fine
For me europe should be a federation with many rights to the national parlaments but more important things like army would be merged into one european army
And this one European army will be called Wehrmacht.
@@user-bz1rm1oj6h
And with police-Geheime Staatspolizei
Luvly jubbly. 👍
Scenario 1 seems like the status quo situation. Personally hope for 5.
first lets get Bulgaria and Romania into schengen and more countries into the euro. Then we can talk about reform and expansion
First lets make Hungary and Poland actual democracys again.
(Speaking for Hungarian side) people are waiting for that damn Euro, but as the time passes, the euro is more far away than ever :(
@@Micha-qv5ufPoland IS A democracy, if it wasn't we wouldn't have elections in October.
I really want both country's is Schengen and don't know why they aren't yet.
About euro, it need both people's approval AND economical stability.
Some members just don't want to join eurozone.
Schengen pretty much destroyed tourism from outside EU, like Canada, US, UK , Ireland.
2 major party's in the Netherlands haven't aligned them selfs to one of te European partys. I am interested to see what NSC and BBB will do, me guessing they will both join EPP. Also Groenlinks and PVDA (Dutch green and labor party) have merged, so it is unsure who they will join for the EU votings.
I think BBB seems more likely to join the ecr seeing as EU regulations on agriculture are the thing their base is most angry about
@@florianjongejeugd3902 yes I agree that would be the other most likely option
I would like a project where countries star getting together slowly like spain and Portugal, Benelux, nordics and other ones
let's carry on then
I want to do more together to equalize competitive opportunities between states
I would like to see further integration in matters of foreign policy and defence, but more autonomy regarding internal policy, especially internal security issues. I support further EU expansion, closer political ties between the EU members and a multi-tiered EU.
5:51 the map is wrong, Croatia is in Eurozone, and Denamrk isn´t
good eye, but Denmark is also missing the islands and Bornholm
For the elections every government likes to looking good. But ones elected then we face the true!
Is there any rule when the elected person does not promise to his commitment that he is fired indefinitely?
EPP and stronger EU army? Is it a joke? Here in Poland EPP members are against the army investments.
I'm for option 5. EU federalist for ever!
Well, 2 or 4 please.
nop
I prefer either the single market one aka bottom right option and as for the party i'd vote for SD for sure if i had the right 🎉
Will any of them increase the value of euro that will be better than usd currency because I want to move to NL 🇳🇱
Voting for scenario 6
I'd prefer a more integrated union with more cohesion.
I'd be happy if I could see like a Federal Europe.
It already happened in 1939-1945 and everybody except you Germans were unhappy.
5:51 You forgot that Croatia now also uses the EURO
I favour incremental improvements. I'm against significant steps towards a United States of Europe.
In my opinion by 2029, Scenario 3 is the most likely situation but there is a stark contrast in economic and social conditions between EU countries. Perhaps a modified version of this with more support from Brussels for these countries. Scenario 5 would be possible if a large number of countries agree for uniform unionisation. Definitely possible by 2050.
More than 100 Million People say no to EU Brüssel
Back to the EEC, ie trading block only would be best.
Europe sets contradicting goals:
- inviting more eastern countries like Balkan countries and Ukraine that increases the cultural and political differences
- trying to make the EU more uniform like a federal state
The only solution is the two or even three speed Europe.
💪
It's a very dark place because after running 🏃♂️ around in circles for decades, they will dissappear up their own arses.
3!!
Option 2 is optimal
I like how there's a hole in uk's previous position 😂
In max 10 years EU is going to be dissolved. This is the reality 😊
Neah it will be slavery run by non elected elites ! People divided by class and status just like ancient Egypt ! Hunger Games of europe !
Option 4/2 seems to be the most sensible, followed by 1.
Option 3 - multi-speed is probably the worst long-term one, as it means deepening the gap between the countries in the EU, rather than shrinking it.
I don't think many people really want options 5 and 6.
Option five seems the very best, both for environmental and, more urgently, geopolitical reasons, in my view. It seems particularly essential to consolidate responses to Russia's attempts at westward expansion. However, option three also bears many clear benefits, the greatest seeming to be the strength of the potential political force thy Macron and the New Europeans party are becoming.
As a Brit who voted Leave I think the EU should demand that all member states adopt the Euro by Jan 1st 2030….or leave the EU.
And also any country that wants join the EU have to adopt the Euro upon accession to the EU.
❤
Let’s face it, no one is going to agree on any one of these. 27 members, six options there will be no collective unified choice.
I like that they show the parliament foul, when normally is empty. People getting salaries without working.... Disgusting.
I am American, so looking at this with interest from the outside. I would imagine that events currently going on will affect the direction that the EU takes in the future. The final resolution of the war in Ukraine and how Russia chooses to deal with European nations afterwards will affect the level of interest in an EU army, as will the perceived commitment (or lack of commitment) by the US towards European defense. It also seems that when right wing governments are elected, this tends to decrease the willingness of that government to allow more decisions affecting the country to be made in Brussels. I have no idea how this will eventually turn out, and reading the comments before positing this shows that there is not a consensus as to what is best from those posting. It will be interesting to see this play out.
Who else wants to live in a united ue?
me
nice
@@merjakotisaari9046
I hope they finally gone figure out where they wanne hold their meetings.
I personally am somewhere between 1 and 3
i hope scenario 6
It’s inevitable, all empires collapse, especially European ones.
I guess 5 would be bad in the long term. I'm more into 3 or 4
And where is the colonization of the moon and the rest of the cosmos? The war in Ukraine proves that it is time to stop focusing on the EU as an end in itself, but as the most effective tool of influence in the hands of Europeans. It's a hammer to push your goals. This is what the EU was before, this is now and this will be its near or distant future. As a tool, not an end in itself.
What's the end goal, then? If europe wants to compete on the world stage, further integration is our best hope.
@@doomerbloomer6160 Ultimate goal? Like everything: last! The EU is like a series: it has to go on...
The goal of Europe for the past 70 years has been to unite and slow down as much as possible, and unavoidable decline that started due to the World Wars. We are really out of juice when it comes to pushing influence and becoming a super power, because on one side, the existing division from the small countries where the politicians care only about preserving their power in the countries and fiefdoms, and couldn't care less about the continent and being part of something greater, is stopping that from happening. Just look at the current crissis, we have a war on the continent, and a small country like Hungary who would go bankrupt over night without EU funds, is slowing down or even stopping most of the EU level policies and actions meant to helping Ukraine. The second reason is historical. Europe has a history with colonialism, which unfortunately is still fresh in the minds of Africans for example due to France. So there is a lot of sensitivity when it comes to Europe flexing its muscles. Third is the fact that the continent is old. We fell behind in innovation, and moreover, Europeans would rather have better welfare than have funds spent on space colonization. And politicians are just to boring and subdued to what get them votes, to push for more.
@@davidgreen5994
Moments of strength or weakness like waves come and go. In fact, the Second Thirty Years' War in Europe, 1912-1945, was a spectacular example of geopolitical suicide. It is all the more surprising that over 70 years of European integration are once again elevating Europe to the pinnacle of global power. Sitting in the middle of the EU and being aware of how complicated this institution is, it is easy to underestimate its importance in the world. However, from the outside, this is an organization that plays the cards in the world more than the UN and is an equal player for the US and China, not to mention other countries or organizations. And because it hides behind an opaque formula of an international organization that has many attributes of a state, but allegedly is not a state, it has many non-obvious tools to influence other actors of international politics. Looking at how the EU has dealt with the constant crises since 2008, I am optimistic about its future. And by the way, I find the above video pointless. And the EU is too big to radically change anything in it, and in particular to reverse any of the 3 trends present in its historical development: deepening integration, adding new countries and taking over the competences of other European organizations. The EU is changing from crisis to crisis, and you never know what the next crisis will be and what it will be like. But surely the EU will gain something new from it.
Without French Guiana, and its launch center, the European space program is dead.
Scenario 2 !!!!!
One should consider the future prosperity of Europe and its role in the world. At its inception, the EU controlled about 20% of world trade, but that has dropped to 12% despite its enlargement and continues to drop. It is facing increased competition from nations with lower work costs, less regulation and fewer protectionist strategies.
I'm watching with interest from outside the EU. I think there is room for a more limited agenda related to multi-speed Europe. This could start with something politically simpler, like France and Germany deciding to pursue a shared agenda while setting the model for some core states to join in. The core states would include the original six and some like-minded contiguous countries. The agenda could be that in the context of movement to fiscal union to create across borders of neighboring countries a tightly integrated labor market, while transforming training and education systems to be more plurilingual to enable increased mobility of workers, supervisors and small entrepreneurs.
In looking at genuinely federal economies/polities like the US, Australia and to a lesser extent Canada, in the EU there is much less movement of labor, even if the legal obstacles have long been removed by the single market. I suspect German entrepreneurs in the middle Rhein are more likely to recruit workers from Berlin and eastern Germany than they are to go just across the Rhein to France, where there may be a lot of highly qualified workers looking for jobs. The linguistic barriers could be systematically lowered if practically everybody in broad border regions would learn the language of their neighboring country starting in kindergarten. Primary school teachers could be recruited across the border, and immersion language schools widely implemented. It might take a generation, but the goal is for French workers to think nothing of moving across the Rhein to continue their careers in German, and German-speaking supervisors and entrepreneurs will easily move to a branch office in France without linguistic friction. My understanding is that France and Germany people are learning each other's languages less today than in previous decades, what with the rise of English. With recent developments in social networking and AI, learning a second or third language has become easier than ever, and there is an increasing realization that the best time to start is pre-school.
The EU budget is very small compared to national budgets, with most taxes spent nationally on national competencies like education and social programs. I don't think countries will be transferring those competencies to Brussels any time soon, but neighboring countries could agree on a common budget direction to create unified labor markets and lower linguistic barriers to economic-political integration.