This 'Mistake' Changed NHL Hockey Forever.
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- čas přidán 12. 08. 2023
- #nhl #hockey #edmontonoilers #torontomapleleafs
On January 4th, 2007, former first overall pick Patrick Stefan missed a wide open net against the Edmonton Oilers sparking, one of the craziest moments in NHL hockey history. In this video we break down the butterfly effect of this one mistake…
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Stefan was unfairly vilified for this, the puck clearly hit a piece of debris and hopped over his stick. It just lead to the most improbable sequence of on-ice events in league history.
One mistake and Billy Buckner is dead at 60. The fans had a "we forgive you" night but it should have been the other way around. Really? You're forgiving me? Thanks but no thanks.
It's bad luck for Stefan but this is why we see players now bury the puck in the empty net first chance they get. They don't want to be the next Stefan.
@@Nay-kp6uu I tried to play old man softball a few years ago. Friendly, non competitive, go for a beer after the game. Some were miserable old farts swinging for the fences at age 60 and some of those guys had wives chirping from the bleachers. Drop a fly ball after not playing for 20 years and you'll be the next me.
Still, he had no excuse NOT to shoot the puck before that happened.
@@AJR-zg2py It's because, and I'm not agreeing with it, putting a soft putt into an empty net was considered sportsman like. Rather than blasting it in. Now players don't even try that. They'll shoot at the empty net first chance they get so this will never happen to them.
So many crazy trade trees yet a bouncing puck in a meaningless game has more impact than half of them.
Gotta love hockey
Hot take: Oilers drafting Kane would have been just another case of a wasted high draft pick.
@@esperagonot hot. Cold. Anyone the oilers drafted back then woulda been ass
Just one goal among many.
lmao
It’s sad because, as a hockey player, you can see that it wasn’t really his fault. There was a “bad hop” due to the ice being chopped up towards the end of the game.
Could he have shot it earlier? Yes. But he was trying to guarantee that the puck would end up in the back of the bet instead of risking and sort of “flubbed shot.”
He got smite by the hockey gods for a brief moment.
You're exactly right. Skating it all the way in, like Stefan did, was actually the safest choice to ensure the puck goes in. That hop is a case of genuine bad luck that was totally out of his control. He looked relaxed, but it wouldn't be reasonable to expect him to be overly cautious and bear down to get the puck in the net because he didn't have pressure and pushing the puck into an empty net is something he'd done probably one million times prior to this moment. Hindsight would say keep the pucks momentum aimed at the net, instead off to an angle in case divine intervention makes the puck take a hop - then at least its hopping in the right direction.
Carl Hagelin in the 2017 cup final is a good example of how to guarantee an empty net goal, skate straight in, bearing down to within feet of the net then still shooting it hard to the back of the net from the crease. The worst empty net miss that is 100% player fault that I've seen is Craig Smith ripping the puck into the rafters from the top of the crease lol
Old comment but kind of an interesting moment because I had to go look up the proper usage of "smite" in this instance. The phraseology you are looking for is "he was smote by the hockey gods." Smote is the preterite for smite and a preterite is the "grammatical tense or verb form used to describe completed actions in the past." Not being a grammar Nazi, just thought it was kind of neat.
As you said, this was a midseason game. The team had countless other opportunities to change their fate. The ensuing timeline was based on the sum of every play in the season, not a single missed goal.
This game had a monumental effect. Oilers tried to change their fate, but in the end, the total sum meant the extra point they should never have received altered two teams' future. Basically, in this specific timeline, the extra point mattered.
@@Paul_Sleeping Nonsense. The oilers have drafted a boatload of young superstar. Drafting talent is only a small part of what it takes to be a succesful franchise in the NHL.
@@Paul_Sleeping That's not really how that works... this puck skipping over the stick is just as impactful as any of the 500 times someone hit a crossbar or slipped and fell, or took a penalty or whatever. There were a basically infinite amount of other lucky/unlucky things that won or lost games for the team over the entire season, each of which was as impactful as the missed empty net, it just seems more impactful because of optics.
@@sigmundferd1359 Exactly as you said. The same video could be made about Kanes mother. I would say she had bigger impact on the lottery than Stefans missed goal.
Just to think, that if Stefan scored that goal, Connor McDavid would most likely not be an Edmonton Oiler, Neither would Draisaitl be too most likely, which is absolutely crazy.
Crazy. Tough to say whether or not Kane would’ve had the same impact on Edmonton… but who knows how it would’ve played out
It would change the entire history of the earth.
Would Chicago still have had their scandal without Kane there?
McDavid wouldn't be an Oiler, Mr. Hockey Psychology wouldn't have a CZcams channel and we'd all be sad but also a little bit relieved that a) McDavid wound up on a non-useless team, and b) we wouldn't have our ears rāped every video having to hear Mr. Hockey Psychology pronounce the "str" sound with an "sh" crammed in there (as in "shtraight", "shtrong", etc)
This was the middle of the season though, not like it was the last game
I remember being at this game as a kid and even though we lost in a shootout the crowd was still so electric and crazy after the game you never would've known it. Best memory at the old stadium too
I've always had a problem with people saying Stefan made a mistake, or that he messed up. Anyone who's played hockey has had the puck jump like that due to ice conditions, 99.99% of the time we luck out and it's no big deal.
But he also stick-handled. He was skating in with the puck on his FH, which provides more control, and then he stick-handled to put the puck in on his BH, which provides less control. Had he simply kept it on his FH, even if the puck jumps, he has more control to handle it. When he switched to his BH, that's when the puck jumped, and he didn't have that same control and couldn't recover. There was no need for him to stick-handle in that situation.
You have a problem with admitting the obvious. This is also why goales scrape the ice near the goal with their skates so that the puck moves less easily. He should just have shot the puck into the net, and not tried to pompously skate into the empty net with it. His fault 100%.
The problem is, we’re assuming everything else is constant the rest of the season. We don’t know if the oilers would’ve finished with one less point given a whole other hypothetical scenario is created. The oilers could be used this loss in regulation to motivate them to play a little better and finish with more or they could’ve used it to fall into even more despair and finish even worse.
It's also not how probability in a lottery works I'd say. Chicahohad a chance of 8% to get the 1st, can't imagine the Oilers one spot behind them had that much worse of a chance. Maybe 7%? So their chances wouldn't have improved that much, it's not like the ball that got drawn would necessarily have been the Oilers one.
True. That's why this really more speculative than science. Just another 'butterfly effect' interesting to think about.
I sometimes like to look back at Draft Classes and see all the top players who were picked low in the draft that a struggling team could have picked, but went with another player who ended as a bust.
@@HDreamer The numbered balls in the draft lottery are assigned to a certain slot, not a team. That is why if the Oilers had occupied the slot instead of the Blackhawks, they would have received the first pick.
Even so. How many 1st did the oiliers end up with that did nothing. Its just as probable to say the blackhawks system is more suited to developing players then the oiliers
And they now have two of the Top-5 players in hockey and still can't win shit.@@walterg.4422
Man that is actually wild. A ‘bust’ first overall pick probably had more of an impact on the NHL than if he actually just panned out as expected. Love these vids
Your "butterfly effect" videos are the absolute best, its so crazy to see how one small moment in a meaningless game creates an effect that wins a city 3 championships. Keep the great content coming, you are the #1 hockey analysis channel out there.
Awesome. Beautiful butterfly effect content, constructed masterfully.
You clearly do not understand what the butterfly effect is. The butterfly effect is one small difference changes everything. That would imply a different outcome to the draft lottery as well.
@@awsomedude12345678 Oh, ok. Thank you for letting me know my conversational use of the term wasn’t precise enough here in the CZcams comments. Everyone, please join me in expressing our gratitude for the generous note of correction.
@joewardpr well you wouldn't want to be wrong and have no one correct you that would be boring if not a little sad In fact the butterfly effect is an interesting thought experiment i would encourage you to study it more. I meant no disrespect.
@@awsomedude12345678 No worries. I'm going to have ChatGPT explain it to me like I'm 5. :)
@@awsomedude12345678 "You clearly don't know what you're talking about, I mean no disrespect." You see the disconnect there? Or you on the spectrum, which is what it seems like, no disrespect.
I was at the Stefan missed goal game. Little did I know the impact it really had. Thank you for this video, great work.
It's a fun video to speculate off of, but this single moment did not cause all of those drafts to go down like they did. Every game has a moment that could have went either way. This video is just for entertainment purposes.
@@dyl-sean3376 It did though, in combination with every other moment that happened, because that's history- it happened. REWRITING IT is speculative, but you can't argue what ACTUALLY happened.
A few weeks ago, I left a comment on a Secret Base video. I mentioned this moment for their Rewind series. Someone replied to the comment, stating that the missed goal had a greater impact than the play itself.
That be great if they did
I think Stefan knew that he had all day, 100% in the clear, and he was being super extra careful not to leave any chance of missing. The EXACT timing of a hop, THAT big, when the puck wasn't moving fast... SO UNLUCKY. If that hop didn't happen, just like it did, nobody would question how he played it. It wasn't his fault imo.
Agreed, and the announcer was particularly harsh, "PATRIK STEFAN YOU SHOULD BE ASHAMED!" - like hewas caught licking two dudes on the ice or something.
Wow this was an incredible video. Great job man! Each and every video you put out is amazing Hockey videos like this are what keep me entertained during the off season thank you for all the hard work you put in! Keep up the amazing work!
Thanks for watching!
@@hockeypsychology Maaaaaaan, surprising to me that even YOU have haters on here, lol. Seems fairly harmless to speculate about hockey, but there's some thin skin out there. Keep up the good work!
Gotta you I have been onto your channel for a few weeks now and you definitely are one of my new favorites! Really reminds me of some nice quality content that has a lot of care out into it in the same vein as Secret Base. Keep up the great work!
I was in Long Beach when Stefan arrived. We had recently such goalies as Legace and before him Khabibulin and a few good players. I was a struggling goalie, just needed more time and experience to develop consistency which you don’t get…time that is. Only way to write your ticket is to be 10x better on the off chance that 3x as good doesn’t get noticed. Anyways, Patrick arrived young and naive and an older than him, American woman got her hands on him…I remember the parents calling from Czechia asking us the players to look after him. That ruined his rookie year in the IHL and he underachieved. Next he had a few underwhelming seasons and then he was done.
It’s like winning the lottery, to play. But Stefan’s career was just like the empty netter he missed…he had everything except the will, brain and maturity to deal with fame. After a few seasons, I got tired of bus travel, living in hotels, and knowing I’d never make it, got a real career going. There’s few spots and a million players…that’s why it doesn’t matter.
The only thing I wish that was added in this video is the time left on the screen when Stefan missed the empty net and the fact that Hemsky tied the game with 2 seconds left. It makes that sequence that much more unbelievable.
Damn, the content has seriously improved in just the last few months. Absolutely love and look forward to every vid you release. Love the content❤
There was a supernatural force intervening with that puck
It’s kind of a stretch to assume that the Oilers would have got Kane if they hadn’t got that OT point. And even if they did, Kane didn’t win 3 cups for Chicago by himself.
Not the biggest hockey fan but I love your deep dive content. It gives casual fans like me a better understanding of the sport and all of it's intricacies.
Imagine this; Kane is an Oiler, Draisaitl is a flame, McDavid is a Sabre, and Gagner is on the Hawks. Crazy
Who’s on first though
imagine this; if stefan scores the goal then putin doesn't invade ukraine
@@wuhaninstituteofvirology wtf🤣
@@SSNESS THIRD BASE!
And Jagr as a dog
Great video and some awesome information that I wasn't aware of. Subscribed!
Great vid as usual. I'm dreaming of big NHL diffuser using this format for content. Keep it up you are changing the game!!!
The thing is with the Butterfly Effect is that if Stefan had scored then that would've created a whole different chain of events. So it's very probable that the Oilers still wouldn't have gotten Kane and maybe the Blackhawks still might've gotten him.
Yeah, if we're playing "butterfly effect" games here, there's no reason to think that the Oilers would have gotten the Hawks pick in the lottery. Reality would have been just a little bit shifted, and who knows who would have gotten that pick.
I remember watching this game live on TV, my dad was at the game and I was trying to see him in the crowd. The hysteria probably lead me to be the fan that I am today.
Very cool
And where is that piece of debris or piece of ice now that Stefan hit with the puck that ultimately caused the Blackhawks to draft Patrick Kane? It should be inside a glass case on display at the Hockey Hall of Fame, lol.
If Stephan scored that goal Kane would join the illustrious list of first overall picks that the oilers busted
It should also be noted that 5 years later, in 2012, Sam Gagner scored 8 points in a single game.
And it was against the Blackhawks.
Yup and he had several chances to score 4 but passed instead. If he would have scored that 4th goal then a fan would have won 1 million dollars because Safeway running a promo at the time if any Oiler player scores 4 goals in a game the fan drawn name would win a million dollars. some fans booed when he passed the puck instead of trying for 4. I was one of them lol
@@rowdied9829 Wasnt he 4+4 in that game?
This is why I love hockey so much. Even the most seemingly inconsequential things like misplaying a puck can forever rewrite the history of the game as we know it. Normally the most famous moments like cup-winning goals like Bobby Orr’s flying goal to win it all in 1970 are remembered, but these plays are the best kind of history-making. Something you can look back on and say “wow, a whole chain reaction started by one seemingly impossible mistake decided the next decades of hockey history.” No other sport has that factor for me like hockey does
This is assuming if he scored the goal everything else would happened the same way. As he said it was a middle of the season "means nothing" game. So maybe if they win in regulation and then go on a ten game losing streak. You can't change one event and then assume everything after that will happen exactly the same way.
No but it’s fun to speculate.
You just earned a subscriber. This video is so well narrated and edited. Go Stars!
I love these types of videos. keep em coming!!!🔥🔥🔥🔥
This was so well done, man. Great video.
I was at that game, 14 rows up and got a close up of this play. We were in the isle ready to head back to our car when this happened it was an absolutely insane sequence of events for this game.
Watching this live was wild. Our household was cheering when Edmonton scored 😂
There are thousands of random events that impact every game (and thus the “course of history”), this one just happens to be interesting. Bad bounce, bad call, injuries, shift changes, they all count the same
Love the term "blew a tire". Its works so well for hockey
This is a great moment for Oilers fans at the game but it having so many implications if Stefan scored is insane
Your videos are great man. Keep up the great work
I remember watching that Stefan missed goal live. Interesting on how the ripple effect played out.
God, imagine how shytty he must’ve felt hearing the crowd explode on the game tying goal? Poor dude.
Being an Oilers fan since the 80s, this moment is forever stitched in my brain
Wow. You are absolutely right with your analysis. Random events can create amazing results. Thanks for the post.
That was fascinating and brilliant all in one CZcams video‼️ 👍❤️
Now, could Kane still end up an Oiler before he retires?
i would be thrilled if he was able to ever play good NHL hockey again after that surgery. he was still capable of good hockey even the last 3 injured years it just hurt him really bad to do it. he got the surgery imo to get rid of pain, not improve his play. it may permanently end his play.
Great job on this video. Super informative.
Stunning amount of fact gathering. Hats off to you. GREAT JOB!!!
Excellent description of the chain of causation. At first, I thought it was going to be a comment on the sometimes practice of players putting the snow in front of the net into a pile.
Basically…
He sinks the putt: Kane goes to hockey hell and has a mediocre career by proxy.
He misses: Kane becomes a HOF’er, the greatest US-born player and gets 3 rings.
So does Kane send Stefan a gift basket every year on the anniversary of this? From one Patrick to another?
I vividly remember tuning into this game, late night as I'm EST, and 🤯🤯
loving the content dude. crazy that any moment and every game can have such a huge impact on the future
Thanks for watching!
Great info-packed video, thanks!
Hank Hill said it best, God hates hotdogging
I was watching this game at home, with my brother and mom. Will never forget it.
I remember i couldnt sleep that night i was just replaying it over and over in my head.
this vid reminded me of Steve Dangle's dang-it video on the same goal and the trade ramifications. it's great to relive the same awe when i first learnt about this. great vid!
Awesome video! I'm a big Kaner fan so appreciate the backstory
I remember seeing this goal live. But I remember it being a 7th game playoff game with Edmonton winning in OT. wtf.
To think that Chicago won the lottery to acquire both Kane and now Bedard is absolutely infuriating.
It's not a "coincidence." Money ensures these "predictable occurrences."
@@squaresunmusicThen why didn’t McDavid go to a better market
To think you actually are a person is mind boggling
Probably because Gretzky is a partner with the ownership group in Edmonton.
@@squaresunmusic what money? the pre-dynasty Hawks were not and had never been a cash cow franchise. Kane and Co made them one - which is why Bettman DID give them Bedard. but back in 07? Chicago or Philly is a coin flip as far as 'money'. Chi was the worst franchise not just in the NHL but in the all 4 major sports.
I dont know how you figure these things out but these r ur best vids, keep it up!
Wake up babe, HP just dropped a new butterfly effect video
In your hypothetical situation where Edmonton doesn't get that extra point, you are definitely glossing over the fact that there was still a draft lottery. Edmonton might not have ended up with Kane. Maybe Phoenix would have. Heck, maybe Chicago wins the draft lottery anyway.
mfers dont realise what lottery means istg
this was SO WELL DONE! more!
Seriously, I honestly remember watching this in the control centre when I was at work in Edmonton. I'm a Red Wings fan, so everyone was on my case. We had the game on TV as we worked. And I remember watching the puck skip unbelievably over Stefan's stick. 10 seconds later, the control centre erupted in unbelievable hysteria as Edmonton tied the game with two point whatever seconds left. Then when Dallas scored in overtime, it was my turn to give the slow clap (it was always my rendition of rubbing it in) in the control centre. How in the world did that puck mysteriously hop over Stefan's stick though????? We'll never know.
The Hockey gods!
Seriously one of the craziest things I have ever seen.
That is absolutely misleading. Every single game of the season and every single goal or not goal had the exact same impact on the outcome of the season.
Good video, got a new subscriber.
Another interesting thing about this game: There was an AMAZING Ovechkin style "360-fall-score from the belly" goal in the game, but no one will ever remember it for 2 reasons. The contents of the above video, and the fact that it was scored by Nik Hagman.
Awww man, that's a name I haven't thought of in years, lol.
The Blues drought fyi… was 50 years winning it in 2019 in their 51st season. The all time record is held by the islanders at 53 years (1940-1994), the current record holder is currently Toronto at 51 years. Making the Hawks record noteable but not record breaking.
And it's kinda funny. Here's another video for y'all to dissect. How the Blues won the cup. Start with The Blues acquisition of Scott Stevens. And follow all the trades and pick. BONUS plus the Gretzky trade tree TIES INTO IT AS WELL....... The Gretzky trade tree still lives on.
Great video G 🔥🔥
Great video once again!!!🤘🏻🤘🏻
Excellent video man
I was there! Skybox suite from work with free food n drinks. Was definitely one of them life moments when you knew history had just happened
This is absolutely mind boggling how that moment literally changed the next 10 years of hockey!! Incredible job I had no clue whatsoever!
This is crazy
I remember that 8-1 loss to the blackhawks, Jeff Petry was the only goal scorer for us smh
Oh Stefan... forever immortalized at the top of every 'Top 10 NHL blunders' video...
I dont even need to hear it, it's burned in my head:
"CAN YOU. BELIEVE. WHAT WE. JUST SAW?" "Patrik Stefan, you should be embarrassed for what you just did."
just imagine if Stefan tapped that puck in Kobe would still be alive
This happened on January 4, 2007. The oilers lost in OT the NEXT DAY against Vancouver (January 5th). The game after that, on January 8th, the oilers won in OT against LA. After these 3 games, the oilers would go to SO/OT 5 more times before the end of the season.
If anything, the oilers beating Colorado 4-3 in the SO on March 23rd - the 8th last game of the season - had a larger impact on the Kane sweepstakes than this random game in January. All they had to do was lose it in OT/SO instead.
This just shows how u never throw the puck backwards. He falls, misses the goal; move the puck towards u as u fall down, trapping the puck between u n the boards, Killing as much time off the clock. Then giving the Stars the win
As you mentioned. it did land the Oilers a first overall years later that would become one of the best hockey players of all time, Nail Yakupov
I beg to differ. Yakupov is one of the biggest disapointment in hockey of all time. The kid was all over the ice without ever scoring more than 20 goals and finally fled to the mother land Russia because he did not have it his way in the NHL.
Wow, great video. Never would have considered that it would have changed their order in the draft.
Stars fan here and I love these videos. Love the lore.
I remember this happening, it was amazing!
The flaw here is assuming that the Oilers scouting department at the time would have been smart enough to select Kane. They probably would have chosen Gagner anyway. They were both teammates on the London Knights, but the Oilers needed a C, whereas they had Hemsky and Pisani at RW, Kane's natural position. They needed a C so bad that Gagner stepped into the league right away that put up 49 points in 2007-08, effectively becoming the 1C, given Horcoff only had 50 points.
That Hemsky goal was sooo good I remember jumping out of my seat
well sir, you are correct that its very likely that Chicago wouldn't have gotten Kane but its also just as also unlikely edmonton would have gotten kane... you cannot get the same roll twice in these lotto ball picks, especially now that (assuming that the universe stays exactly the same after stefan scores) edmonton would have more balls and the slight differences in weight would effect how the balls settled.... and there is also the butterfly effect how does this shape the world after... maybe edmonton or dallas players get molded by this win/loss and how does it shape the regular season going forward, not to mention entire conversations, emotions reactions will be different from the people who do the ball lottery even slight changes in conversation ,emotions will affect everything... so did this moment change everything yes... but so does every other moment equally... so no this moment is not special...
i saw this live on TV - it was insane seeing that
Absolutely loving these butterfly effect vids...
Why do ppl say he made a mistake when the puck clearly decided it was not going in the net. It jumps over his stick just as he is about to put it in. Not his fault. Feel so bad for him.
I WAS AT THAT GAME. It was incredible. I still remember it.
This is one of the most thought provoking pieces I've seen in ages. Actual in game situations having true ripple effects. Trade trees are lazy man's work... But this is truly thought provoking!
Very well done. Fascinating!
These are the kind of thought trains I like, lol, good stuff
I agree that the Hawks getting Kane made a huge historical difference and that without Kane the Blackhawks almost certainly could not have won any of those championships, plus Kane on another team might have won no titles at all because of chemistry, Kane was not a Gretzky who probably could have won Stanley Cups with many other teams as the league was when Gretzky showed up. But there are a lot of other tiny changes that could have allowed the Hawks to get Kane besides the Stefan affair. The Hawks could have gotten that one point more (or Edmonton could have gotten that one point less) so many other ways-- through injury, one shootout miss or make, one day of the flu, one bad ref call, one bouncing puck, one more or one less great goalie save, whatever.
This is a bit of a ridiculous thesis considering that neither team was in fact the worst team and either one winning #1 overall would have been a fluke of the lottery at best.
It is also interesting because a similar thing( Chicago beating Pittsburgh) led to the blackhawks getting Bedard
Yup, we did a video on that too!
Check it out here: czcams.com/video/ZUNfYaGyor4/video.html
Nope. The Blackhawks got Bedard by intentionally losing games all season.
@@brainspout3447if the Hawks were intentionally trying to lose to get Bedard they would have finished last like the Ducks. Hawks actually tried to win games all year unlike those irrelevant hockey teams in Ohio and Anaheim
the Hawks were getting Bedard no matter what
@@RMAUnoDosTre That appears to be true. The NHL was going to make sure of it.
Great video. This was the season the Flyers (my favorite team) had the worst overall record in the NHL... then we proceed to lose the lottery (and Kane) and have to pick 2nd. Losing out on Kane was bad enough, but if we had lost him to the Oilers instead of the Blackhawks, I might have felt worse.
Lightning fan here and it was around that time that they were starting to have some down years like in their early days of existence but Steven Stamkos at least had some time to develop before Martin St. Louis left. I actually do still remember that 2010 season I believe when the Flyers came back down 3-0 in the ECF against the Bruins, I thought Philadelphia was going to ride that momentum to win it all.
Wow! Great video! I love this game! The Hockey Gods are real!
Stefan hit ‘em with the first overall flourish on that empty net goal
Holy shit thank you Stefan for Kaner!
Stefan's real mistake wasn't missing the empty net- that was mostly just bad luck. His real mistake was panicking afterwards. If he stays calm and just skates it to the corner or behind the net he kills off the clock anyways for the regulation win. Instead he panics, blows out, then blindly throws the puck back out to the Oilers.