How the 3-point line is breaking basketball
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- Äas pĆidĂĄn 7. 10. 2021
- The game is at a turning point. Should the rules be changed?
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The NBA introduced the 3-point line in 1979, and not much changed right away. Players werenât used to shooting from far out, so for the first few years, they mostly didnât. It wasnât until the 1986-1987 season that the league as a whole scored over 100 3s in one season.
The arc of the line was shortened for a few years in the '90s, but besides that, it hasn't changed much - and thatâs given players and coaches an opportunity to strategize around it. In 2014, statistic-obsessed sports executive Daryl Morey led what many people call the 3-point revolution. He used the D-League Rio Grande Valley Vipers as a testing ground to see if volume shooting from the 3-point line netted better results than shooting 2s - and it worked.
The math states that scoring one-third of your shots from behind the 3-point line is as good as scoring half your shots from inside the line. In other words: Shooting as many 3s as possible will likely lead to a higher score.
The league took notice, and teams and players followed suit. 3s have become so prevalent in recent years that fans are criticizing the league for being oversaturated with them. Critics worry that the game is on the verge of becoming boring because everyone is trying to do the same thing. And that's led some to wonder if the NBA should move the 3-point line back.
Additional reading:
Zak Geis compiled data of all the NBA shots since 1999 by scraping the NBA API. His work greatly informed our reporting, and you can find his original data here: data.world/sportsvizsunday/ju...
We were able to turn data into graph-able charts using this tutorial: datavizardry.com/2020/02/03/n...
James Dator is a senior staff writer at SB Nation where he covers the 3-point line, plus lots of other sports - like baseball, soccer, and the NFL. For more of James's reporting, check out his author page: www.sbnation.com/authors/jame...
And here's his article on the 3-point line: www.sbnation.com/nba/2021/3/1...
Grantland: The Amazing Pace (about how Daryl Morey transformed the Vipers) grantland.com/features/nba-dl...
Grantland: Is it time to move the NBA 3-point line back? grantland.com/the-triangle/is...
Basketball Referenceâs detailed stats: www.basketball-reference.com/...
FiveThirtyEight: Did Moving The Arc Bring The 3-Pointer To A Breaking Point? fivethirtyeight.com/features/...
CBS Sports: What the shortened NBA 3-point line of the mid-1990s says about the future of long-range shooting www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nb...
Vox.com is a news website that helps you cut through the noise and understand what's really driving the events in the headlines. Check out www.vox.com.
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@@stephcurry2350 no youre not
Any SB nation shoutouts from y'all?
"How Math is ruining basketball"
Idk if it's breaking basketball as much as it's just evolving. The 3-point line is allowing people who aren't 7'0" to actually compete using their better accuracy. It's a more diverse game now, which it a good thing. The big man isn't gone, look at Giannis. There's just more ways to be great now.
spoke nothing but facts
Yeah, I agree. I remember being a kid playing basketball and it felt unfair that I didn't care about basketball but did better than kids who lived for the game, just because I was super tall and they were short. Short kids (or not super tall) now have a chance to play the sport they love.
Yep đŻ
Say it louder
What makes players great in today's NBA is that flexibility. LeBron is scary when he's beyond the arc because you know he's a good 3-point shooter, but he can also drive by you to the basket for easy points. Same for Giannis.
When he mentioned houston rockets taking 51% of their shots from outside the 3 point line, I was like "yeah that's because 80% of those are from Harden"
đ€Łđ€Łđ€Ł
@Imafraid Jumitebeeinnagang yeah bro by that superteam.
mainly because of mike dantonie coaching. He lives by the three
@Imafraid Jumitebeeinnagang Did you even look at the thumbnail
Reminds me of the year they shot their way out of a game 7. One of the funniest things I ever seen live
Honestly, the 3 point line levels the playing field in Basketball. Before, the game used to be a big man's game where height and size made such a big difference because majority of shots were scored inside the paint. The addition of the 3 point line makes shooting skill regardless of size and height very valuable. You can be short but still make a valuable impact as long as you practice how to shoot the ball.
Tru but still defensive liability. Dame vs gannis type of stuff.
Why some people don't like it is there seems to be more missed shots
A good point guard will still be a great asset in a team next to a good center, point guard with awesome playmaking skills can dictate and win games without needing to score high points.
If anything, the modern game is making it tougher for smaller players. The whole idea of positionless basketball and the constant defensive switching it requires makes it pretty difficult for (most) guys under 6'4" to excel. Finding players under 6'2'' in the NBA is becoming a rarity.
Itâll never happen due to the record books, but making the points switched to 3s and 4s would only making them 25% more valuable rather than roughly 33% more valuable
just allow fractional scoring, change 3pt shots to worth 2.5 points.
Messes with fouls though. Do you have to shoot 3 shots?
Kinda brilliant
good idea but it now affect free throws. theyre either gonna be underpowered with one point or overpowered with 2 points
Records could easily be adjusted. I think itâs definitely worth the slight inconvenience
when i played on the basketball team in middle school we would get benched or punished if we attempted 3 pointers lol
i mean the three point shot could easily be the worst shoin the game if you dont make at least a third of them. probably why they benched them in middle school.
we were only allowed to shoot layups...this was back in the late 90s. coach would count the jump shots and make us run in practice. this was man that had coached pros and won a state championship
Did you play for Coach Carter? ;P
but were u a good 3 point shooter though, and were you guys taking good shot like shooting only when you guys are open? if u can prove that you can make 3 pointers consistently and only shoot when you are open, i don't see why the coach should stop you guys from taking them.
@@shakingitoff I have a solution.
Keep the 3 point line.
But. Make a 4 point dunk. Must be two hands on the rim. Or else it's just two points.
5:01 "this become a problem when your team can't hit enough 3s"
Even vox makes fun of ben
I thought they might have mentioned game 7 of the 2018 western conference finals, when the Rockets bricked 27 in a row
Lol poor Seth curry
To be fair, that applies to his 2 point shots as well
ouch....
Ben is the reminder that it isn't easy to shoot 3's.
I suggest making a 10 point full court shot just for laughs to see some extreme Hail Mary plays.
4 pointer logos
Best believe some freak of nature would come along nailing them and ruining everyoneâs fun
Well the warriors would just win everygame then..
Lol maybe 6 points if you shoot from inside your own 3 point area would be funny
@@elijahgavin6706 That's actually the origin of basketball as we know it. George Mikan was 6'10 back when everyone else was 5'9 and dominated the game so badly they had to raise the height of the nets, introduce a rule about not blocking shots, the shot clock, and start getting other tall players.
The prevailing idea at the time was actually that tall guys couldn't play because of coordination or something. He singlehandedly broke the game.
The 3-point shot was brought in by the ABA to open up the court and make that further shot more rewarding. While also giving the smaller players more opportunities to score. Novel concept in the 60's
The problem is that smaller guys are disappearing in the NBA a big part of it is landing Space shorter guys used to be able to make up for their height to some extent by guarding a guy closer. Landing space made that a foul which meant that to play decent defense you needed to be taller to effect the shot.
ABA is much better than NBA. Dont know what happen to them but a lot of nba success is came from that league in back then.
@@ibringthelastwords1358 They merged together thatâs what brought people like Dr. J.
@@ibringthelastwords1358 they merged, and the NBA uses their rules.
@@guppy719 Interesting point in that one idea of the 3 pointer is to give smaller guys more of a chance to play but shorter players are becoming rarer anyways. Curry and Young notwithstanding. I suspect it has to do with defense, because you now need longer rangier players on the perimeter to cover great 3 pt. shooters. So it's a conundrum because a shorter player might be quicker and can get open easier for a 3 but then you need length on the other end to stop the other 3 pt. shooter. What happens is longer, rangier guys start improving their 3 pt. shot to make it in the NBA and if you can have a longer guy who can shoot the 3, you're going to take him over a shorter guy. So the arms race in height continues to escalate even on the perimeter where the shorter player used to rule. Maybe what we are losing is shorter players that are more average level players, it's the 3 pt. shooting phenoms that can still play and be great but the more midrange type talents are getting squeezed out by taller players.
Finally the NBA catching up to my 2K strategy
Back in 2K14, my strategy was to build a team with sharp shooters and 1 traditional center that can also shoot.
Steph Curry
Paul George
Kevin Durant
Kevin Love
Tim Duncan
@@iyannlee 666
Between this and those weird HS football teams that never punt like they're playing Madden, video games have drastically improved sports.
@@iyannlee kyle korver was my go to even back in 2k13 at 60 OVR
@@ogkd31 Yeah absolutely bro, I remember Jose Calderon was good, with Igoudala and Jamal Crawford. Shooting threes during that time was just good to see and feel every time the ball swish.
Summary: "The NBA wanted more scoring and less shoving around under the hoop. So they created the three-point shot and got more scoring and less shoving around under the hoop. This is breaking basketball!"
The problems are, however:
1. Some of that shoving around the hoop was entertaining. Being able to posterize a bigger man is amazing to see
2. Everyone is doing the same thing, which making the game boring to watch.
I don't know what the solution is, but I personally don't want to see 7'3" guys shooting 3s. Imagine watching the X-Men, but every single mutant had the same ability to control metal. I feel like this is where the NBA is now.
@@dontbanmebrodontbanme5403 Basketball is a no contact sport, so there actually shouldn't be any shoving under the hoop and all those are technically fouls.
Thanks for saving me seven minutes of life
@@dontbanmebrodontbanme5403 The thing with dangerous long range shooters is that they open up a def for driving. Which SHOULD lead to posterizing.
IMO: prime Splash Bros were a great watch. I think it has more to do with guys like Harden, making every play the same one that makes it boring to watch. Dribble down the court, face up at the perimeter, fade away shot and repeat.
@@dontbanmebrodontbanme5403 I disagree with the premise that everyone doing the same thing makes a sport boring. Yes a difference in schemes is bound to spice up the game in some regards but that by no means means that watching two forces attempting the exact same thing isn't necessarily entertaining. Most pro football teams play in a similar manner in comparison with college football, but this doesn't make the nfl much much more interesting. The thing that vox fails to address is why nba teams can't fix this issue. The Air Raid was nasty until they figured out zone coverage beats it, and the '79 falcons defense was nasty until it was figured out that a quick pass will usually succeed. I'm no basketball fan so why defenses can't cover three point shots is open question. if there is no answer, than the nba should nerf the offense in some way, like mandating that only two players per team can shoot threes.
if everyone starts focusing on 3's eventually it might lead to a gamestate where it is easier to score a less defended 2 than a well defended 3. Scoring more than half the 2's is better than scoring 1/3 of the 3's. It might lead to a new system and again back to the different approaches of the game
We're starting to see this already. Mid-range shots are making a comeback as people realize that openness (defined in general as the distance from the defense) matters as much as or more than the points/distance tradeoff and even Steph Curry has spent time improving his ability to drive to the basket.
Love this comment, exactly what we have going on now
It's happened
2 things that could help:
- change the rules to allow for more aggressive defense.
- reduce the size of the key to make it easier to score inside
I don't watch the NBA because the defense is so bad, if they would play defense like they cared there wouldn't be as many 3s made
@@alecrichardson7290 watch the playoofs then
I don't think a more aggressive defense would be a good idea. More than an increase of 3-pointers we saw an huge increase of fast break situations and running up and down. And there're also a lot of injuries especially in this saison maybe because of the increase in speed. Aggressive defense will lead to more injuries and that can't be a good idea.
Also if you watch the shooting chart you see that there're a lot of scoring inside the key. The decrease is about the amount of long 2-pointers.
Well 5 years ago when houston start to shoot a majority of 3-pointers I thought this could be a problem, but after they missed to succeed in the playoffs this story seems to end. The last 2 champions (Lakers, Bucks) balanced the shooting from inside and outside against each other focusing on fast breaks, steals and "drive-and-kick" plays.
@@NavidErde the word is injuries not insureies
@@NavidErde more hutie defendie playie are meanies and wenines. More punchie wunchies downie knockie outies funies tonie watchies highlighties
You can't talk about 3-point shooting without mentioning Curry.
Right I was about to say that
Fax
Yeah, I was waiting for the moment they mentioned how broken Curry was when it comes to three-point shooting... but no, they just shifted the narrative to some exec.
Yup, especially in the part talking about logo threes. Curry was part of that change; the switch from Mark Jackson to Steve Kerr was a huge milestone in this era of 3-point shooting. Not even a mention of GSW, that actually won multiple championships with this exact tactic (not to mention Kerr using big men as playmakers).
@@theobuniel9643 to be fair that exec, Morey was the first guy to have a team shoot mainly threes. Curry wasn't shooting as much back then, and his whole team wasn't either. But he also paved the way for it
Curry started to revolutionize the 3pt line as early as 2014. Itâs amazing now even BIG MEN should have a decent 3pt shot to be recognized.
Laugh in Giannis
@@TheRoadrunn Even Gianniâs helps with getting threes by generating gravity towards him, which leaves Brook LĂłpez (a 7 foot old school center who learned to shoot 3s) and Kris Middleton open at the perimeter.
@@martytu20 its natural, when you're so dominat in low post the chance youve got double team is higher thus make a space for your teammates
Facts it sounds like this video was made by Daryl Morey
Giannis is two time MVP and he canât even shoot free throws
I'm surprised it took this long for teams to even try out to abuse the 3 points rule. As the one guy said, its plain obvious that you need only 1/3 of 3 points to hit vs 1/2 of 2 pointers. Not to mention that a missed 3 pointer can still create chances depending on where the ball goes.
I would've assumed that a smaller team would have went all-in attempting this many years ago to get an edge. Yet it took 30+ years for that to happen.
the actual number is 40% to 50 %.
No it took 43 years.
@@Gnofg 3 pt x 3.33 = 10 pts & 2 pt x 5.00 = 10 pts
The problem is variation Houston went on a big slump because theyâre so predictable. So defense lockdown & losing driver CP3 doomed them. Need balance to throw off team like run/pass in football & can get cold occasionally.
Lithuania and Latvia had similar 3 point basketball system 15-20 years ago, although it wasn't so extreme as todays NBA.
The even more interesting thing is that effective mid-range shooters become more rare, leading to their value being increased as defensive schemes focus on protecting the 3 point line and the paint exclusively.
Its not just that. Players good at posting up is even more rare than good mid range shooters.
Big men are not more skilled now. They're less skilled.
They almost all don't have any post moves and they just dunk and layup and set screens for 3s.
Its the worst era ever for skilled centers. Also Powerforwards play like shooting guards now
Not exactly, Derozan, Wiggins, and Basically your stereotype wing still does that.
Right do u remember Richard (Rip) Hamilton? Won a championship off 18ft jumpers
3 point line gives a chance for smaller guys to compete on the court, big men still exist
6'3 smaller guys lol
Big men don't exist in the traditional sense, they are camping the 3 point line too.
@@jonq8714 unskilled big men camp at the line, in the past guys like Javale McGee and Hassan Whiteside would be getting post ups. If you are talented, you still get loads of post ups. I will not give the ball to a terrible player just because they are big lol
Tell what big men that can't shoot and are dominant big still exist oh and Incase you wanna say Giannis he's improved his shooting. He can shoot. So can AD and Joel embiid
Tell smaller guys to try a different sport
This sounds more like people complaining about their game evolving rather than the game actually being more or less boring.
Exactly! Steph Curry indirectly retired a lot of players careers because they didn't want to work on evolving their game. That's the price you pay for being stagnant as a professional.
Spot on, people gotta realize the game isnt what it was before, but that doesnt mean itâs less entertaining
The dude that said âWe could get to the point where its just boring cause everyoneâs trying to do the same thingâ, what? Before everyone was shooting twoâs
To be fair, as sports evolve, it can also make sense for the rules to evolve.
Honestly this is mostly just vox not knowing much about basketball.
Pretty sure this same discussion happened maybe 60 or 70 years ago with dunking. They talked about having a 12-foot rim. I think the only change that happened was the widening of the shaded area, but that was mainly because of Wilt Chamberlain. So, I don't think there will be any changes to curb the three point shot. If at all, they might incentivize shooting even further out, like a 4-point line, but that's also incredibly unlikely, if not already ruled out.
It's inevitably going to happen when you have two different scoring methods. One of them is going to be superior to the other, so that will become the default. Eventually somebody will run the numbers and find this out.
In Rugby, they realized a few years ago that you actually score more often when you kick away possession to the other end rather than try to drive the ball up the field and score, simply because if you can turn the ball over, you've now got the ball deep in your opponent's territory. So now in Rugby, all they do is kick possession away if the ball is in their half.
Facts, why you always see ping pong matches in rugby
Yes, but Nash Equilibrium says that defenses should adapt and make the expected value equal. However, it's so easy to make a 3 and the rewards are so great, teams aren't able to achieve Equilibrium.
Nash Equilibrium is how bad passing defenses (e.g. Bengals) all the sudden can get quite good with proper coaching/adjustments (e.g. against the Chiefs). They are achieving equilibrium and they indifferent to whatever the offense gives them. If they "show their hand" and try to stop either the run or the pass too much, the offense has an advantage.
I feel like this guy's goal was really to make a 3 point shooting video without mentioning Stephen Curry.
đđ
They literally mention him within the first two minutes.
Did you even bother watching the video?
This is not espn
Itâs real journalism
@@MrErricoMalatesta To be fair they didn't discuss how much of an impact he had on popularizing it. He also popularized deep 3s, and While Lilliard has become known for it Curry started the trend.
The fact that he wasn't mentioned even though he singlehandedly changed NBA is a crime.
The game was boring when all you had to do was pass it to the 7ft guy and he dunks itâŠ
Just to show Wilts 100 pt game (with all due respect) is not as impressive as Kobeâs 81 pt game
@@DatBoyIsAvirgin Exactly!
@@DatBoyIsAvirgin Wilt > Kobe (with all due respect)
@@mclovin4974 dude played against farmers and substitute teachers
@@mclovin4974 Aw nah you on coke bro đ
The difference between 2p and 3p is so small, that when teams fortify their defences out in the 3p area, there is a more space for dunks, lay ups etc.
It's a hard game to try to tell games entertainment quality through statistics. Futile, even. Games have been good, I do remember the old matches also - everyone inside 3p line, waiting for shot clock to exhaust it's stride once more before a move. Courts were so packed occasionally, that there was no space for the playing now that half of the court is truly always open for action, there is so much more space for things to go down that I certainly don't share their fears.
It's good that there are incentives to evolve the game. Now it's up to the teams and players to adapt.
No body is complaining about it except so-called experts. Like you said, the 3 point has allowed for players to space out creating opportunities for more flashy dunks and layups
the 3 pointed being added made sense and they did it for a good reason. A 4 point line is not needed and will further space the floor. Basically the game will just be watching guys iso all day and shoot over each other. There's already too much iso in the pros imo and this would only make it worse.
The âbig manâ isnt really gone amymore. There was a time not too long ago when golden state set the bar on how basketball would be played, and it did seem like the big man is extinct.Their skill set just changed. Some of them can shoot like KAT and brook lopez, play defense like Embid and Giannis, or play make like Jokic. You gotta specialize in something and be a decent shooter to do well today as a big man.
Exactamundo!
Who were the MVP candidates in 2021?
Jokic and Embiid.
Finals MVP?
Giannis.
Big men are still at the very top of the hierarchy, but they've gotta have skills now
This videos like 4 years late the 3 point revolution is actually slowing down the last three champs weren't good 3 point shooting teams the only team that ever won depending on it was the warrior and they had two or three of the best shooters of all time. Its now more of just another way to win then the only way like we thought it would be a few years ago. The past three mvps were big men. like this video is so late. What really happened is what happens a lot in football. One team creates a whole new way of winning then every other team zigs to copy them and everyone thinks that's how the sports going to be until on team zags and finds away to exploit that now way and now everyone copy them.
Big Man doesnât just refer to size. It also refers to skill set and range of shot attempts. For example, Charles Barkley was known for his remarkable rebounding and back to basket game. Heâs 6â6 at most and he was a power forward/center. Just being tall doesnât make you that. Itâs about skill set combined with presence and size
Giannis is a downhill driver and shoulders the point guard duty for the bucks. Far from the Big Men of old. Jokic doesnât really fit in that category of player either. No problem with that of course, but to refer to them as big men because of their size would be to fundamentally misunderstand the position
Exactly Gianis, Jokic and Embid the top 3 mvp candidates last season.
Something to think about; think about the contact allowed in the paint on layups and dunks compared to a 3 point attempt. Yeah 3 point shots are contested but never allowed to be as contested as a bucket in the paint. Any contact would send them to the line
The answer is simple: All successful baskets go through a Plinko. Will you get 1 point? 2 Points? 3 points? 15 points!?
This video fails to explain what generally happens to teams that heavily rely on three's during the playoffs. Teams defend the three point better in the playoffs and because the game slows down, less three's are attempted in fast break scenarios. It's rare that a that team that solely relies on three's, for them to win a championship. And when they do win (17' 18' warriors) they also heavily rely on mid-range jumpers. Good explainer video, but also heavily FLAWED.
That is kind of true. I mean Morey led teams still have never won a title.
Still the threat of the three opens up other areas offensively. A team with poor spacing/lack of shooters cannot win in the modern NBA. Itâs debilitating offensively
Spot on. It's surface level analysis. They brought up the 76ers - their issue wasn't simply lack of 3pt shooting but that one of their stars wouldn't shoot AT ALL.
There's also magic within the game on getting open shooters. The Warriors, Nuggets, and Nets all shoot a lot of threes but their offenses are VASTLY different.
So annoying when Vox does a video on something youre actually interested in but they butcher it
good.Hope this shed a light mate
"Most fans are watching because they are emotionally attached to the team, that's what's important."
The only reason why Baseball can still sell tickets.
@Don Chae true because its true
That's not true nobody is loyalty to basketball team that much anymore they have loyalty to players that's why people aren't watching cuz players don't stay put anymore
Bingo!!! The Raiders lose almost all the time and they have the largest fan base!!
That's applicable to any type of sport.
Imagine making a 7-minute video about something "breaking basketball" and then only bringing up statistics showing said thing is being used. Players are actually paying attention to a line painted on the floor? The horror.
This was very interesting and insightful! Good video!
Curry was a crucial Part on the 3pt Revolution, when teams saw GSW Win the 2015 Finals and Curry 2014 On wards they already started making more 3's.
Heâs not a âpart lol, he is the reason for this video.
@@joessj5 Casuals keep crediting Curry for the 3 point explosion. Real ones know that Daryl Morey is the one responsible for it.
@@joessj5 what have u been watching? of all the things, is that what you've grasped?
@@kelancameron1625 morey. really. MOREY??
Also if youâre going to make a video with this title and Voxâs reach, mightâve been smart to interview some people closer to the game. Like maybe guys whoâve played basketball, just a thought
Exactly, this guy has no statistical context for what he's discussing.
Exactly bro. Not a soul in the NBA, whether it's coaches, staff, analysts or players are talking about the game being ruined.
@@BrawlerTM that's not really true though, if we're being honest. Gregg Popovich is probably the defining coach of the past two decades and one of the most respected voices in world basketball and he certainly *does* think the game is being ruined by excessive 3-pointers.
@@herrmannmunster he a grumpy old man
@@jgreed5 it's possible to be a grumpy old man AND have a very valid opinion. As a neutral observer I must say that the San Antonio Spurs of around 2013-15 are one of the most enjoyable basketball teams I've ever seen. And I'm sad to see that such a team would no longer be viable nowadays because the sport has become totally 3-centric
I think there's some advantage for shorter guards -- I think it's a matter of one man teams like when Harden played for Houston
Harden is not smaller.
@@Gnofg no but he is very ball centric
My cousin who plays said that he just mostly watch his favorite team/players do their thing, and most of the time doesn't really care very much about the opposing team unless they do some stuff that catch his attention
Stephen curry is on another level with his three's
African hand ball
@@abort_abort5322 Brand new account with anti jewish pepe profile pic. ..hmmm
Shooting takes more skill than dunks. 3s make it so a 6ft guy with an incredible jumper has a shot to make the nba. Shooting makes basketball for normal people again and not just 7ft freaks. This is good for the game as a whole.
Yes and no. To dunk over and over on big defensemen you have to work so so hard to get close to the paint and keep it fresh as theyll adapt. Cant really adapt to someone sniping from half court. Lul
Dunks are still the most efficient shot in the game by far. I mean you are literally picking the ball up and placing it in the hoop directly. Nothing can compete with that in terms of average value per shot.
The next most efficient shot is the free throw, which you usually end up getting when driving to the rim.
The next most efficient shots are layups and corner threes
Then the above the break 3's that everyone takes now
Then mid-rangers.
I don't want to see normal people. Go to your local gym for that.
@@ComS512 Go outside, lower your rim to 9ft and see how easy basketball is for Wilt Chamberlain. Then, step back 30 ft and shoot a shot on that same goal. The 30ft shot simply requires more skill. A guy who can hit a 30ft shot at %50 accuracy while being guarded is not normal. You won't find him in your local gym. However, he is a freak because he worked hard to develop his game, not primarily because he was born with a certain set of genes that made him taller than 99.9% of humanity. My son will never be Wilt. He could become something like Steph. Shooting makes basketball accessible to everyone, which makes it more fun to watch.
@@dgw4049 it's quite the opposite. It requires less "skill" and simply more practice. Kerr was a good three-point shooter but nobody would call him "skilled". You heard the statistic you only need to make 33% of your 3s to match a 50% average of 2 pt shots. An effective low post/mid range game are harder to develop.
This new rule that reduces the fouls on 3 point shots should help. The thing about the inside 2 is the chance of getting a foul and scoring 80% from the free throw line or getting the and 1.
The game of Basketball has evolved. Even Centers are shooting 3-pointers nowadays
The game is far from being broken. It has evolved. The big man is still very much alive, as seen in several of the GM surveys where big men are leading MVP races. Even Jaren Jackson Jr was voted the highest to have a breakout season. The big man has an admittedly smaller role, but still an integral role in the game of basketball
you touch down on a lot of different things. The big man is largely obsolete. Modern NBA requires big men to be good shooters or at least have good defense, and think about how many quality big men are from overseas. It's not a coincidence. The euroleagues have a much more fundamental youth system that teaches kids the technique, compared to the shitshow that is AAU. The last AMERICAN big man to seriously dominate was Shaq... there have not been many revolutionary centers who have the strength, agility, etc but most importantly the FOOTWORK to be as dominant as Shaq Robinson and Hakeem. Big men are still important, but they are still expected to be able to shoot if they want to get starter minutes... when is the next big man gonna come around and say "yall cant stop me in the paint" and go to work?
@@Jackson-mi3dr First of all this isn't what's actually happening. Giannis alone has won two MVPs, DPOY and finals MVP award in the last few years, he can barely hit a jump shot. Also Jokic just won league MVP and he gets a ton of buckets in the paint and gets a ton of rebounds, granted he's all finesse and skill, but that's what's required because the level of skill in the league is higher than its ever been. How is being able to pass and shoot from deep a bad thing, it only raises the level of competition and skill required to compete. Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Karl Anthony Towns, etc.....
It has evolved into being broken.
@@Jackson-mi3dr yep. You got these 7 footers standing behind the 3 point line like they're playing guard or SF position. It's just weird for anyone who's watched basketball since before the 2000s.
Its better, because people like Steph Curry and Luka have proven you don't need to be a 6'9 big man to be good at basketball, and I think that might be better, because obviously as Giannis has proven, both big man centered teams and 3pt centered teams like the Warriors both can win championships
The game is just getting more efficient. This is usually the result data has on everything but the curve eventually flattens. This is basic econ. The advantage never lasts
You'd think these professors of economics would understand that
I think an interesting idea would be unique courts for the home team, similar to the different fields in baseball. That would allow teams to have a court catered to their strength; let the team update the court every 3 years or something. For example: whomever has Rudy Gobert could eliminate the 3 ball from their court, and force them inside. The warriors could expand it and take advantage of their long range sharpshooters and open up the game even more. Would be fun to play around with this idea in the D league
Thanks a lot for a great video!
can't believe they didn't mention steph curry's impact on the way the game is played today
I think it's implied at the beginning.
The Disrespect!
they let the numbers speak
@@hucz they mentioned âDamian âlogoâ lillardâ instead đđđđđđ
They donât watch basketball, theyâre internet nerds
"The Rockets became the first team to shoot more 3s than 2s."
Yeah, and see where that got 'em.
the closest anyone ever got to beating the greatest basketball team ever?
@@DrawQuick2014 the raptors literally beat the warriors in the finals what are you on about?
@@christianroy4177 đđđđgot em
@@christianroy4177 The warriors were injured, they only had Stephen Curry and a weak bench So no the Raptors didn't beat the greatest basketball team ever
@@DrawQuick2014 27 missed 3s in a row
I like this modern style. It makes the player defend, and not just clogging in the paint.
I mean back in the day it was more like whoever had the taller player had the biggest advantage, so it's really just people whining. The game will evolve to counter teams that only focus on three point shots.
This is how games work, as time goes on, strategies become more and more optimized based on the rules. Nothing is being âbrokenâ here. Itâs just slowly the nba has figured out the âmetaâ
If the meta revolves around something that was added, and is now dominating the meta, "broken" is an accurate adjective to use
@@NashRespectIt's not broken if its only used a third of the time, If there's no 3's teams just clog up the key and becomes tallest player wins, shooting from 3 is a skill which makes games more entertaining, watch kawhi's game 7 in the fianls
I don't see how it's breaking the game. If a team is known for attempting more 3 pointers then it's your job to defend them better. It's a skill to consistently score from a distance so it should be rewarded.
Defense has been hamstrung by rule changes over the years, and for many of the fans all the 3s makes the game less exciting.
@@Mzee1084 many but most os us want the 3 point line. Why should only tall people have advantages?
@@IramCoercere Tall centers are now practicing 3s instead of working in the paint. Tall players still have just as much advantage, and shorter players can be point guards, and sometimes shooting guards too.
@@Mzee1084 what i meant to say is, that the 3 point line is only fair, so that it not only depends on how tall you are
I also feel like some statistics from outside the NBA would've been useful, how do the statistics pan out on fiba rules and stuff.
So, the NBA essentially _Moneyballed_ their scoring points from short to long distance...
Since my strategy in NBA Jam TE has been built around 3-pointers since ~mid-1995, I can only assume that the NBA in general is only just now catching up with the brilliance of my stratagems.
I think it has reached the point where it is balanced. The classic game is still important, it still is. It's just that now there is room for a greater diversity of strategies and players with different characteristics. And that is a good thing.
No there is not almost every team is doing the exact same thing on offense
@@seesee5363 and it still doesnât matter, as you can see, the championship has ROUTINELY gone to the team that shoots the mid range effectively for the past 10+ seasons.
@@Hooperd2023 school dat bwoy.
Thereâs almost ZERO diversity now.
@@seesee5363 Bro look how the Bucks just won the championship last year, it wasnât off just three point shooting, it was based in the paint and mid range.
The value of an instant bucket on the inside or off a fast break is still incredible. People like Giannis aren't going anywhere. Teams aren't going to completely give up a 2 pointer JUST because it isn't a three, so big men and slashers can still break down defenses and punish them with finishing or passing. Also, teams are adapting to defending three-pointers, so offenses need to become more efficient and still have those inside threats. It isn't breaking the game in a negative, it's just reshaping it in an interesting way, at least to me. I don't find it painful to watch the ball move as much and find an open man off a cut, or maybe have an iso to watch somebody go to work. Also, it makes defense more exciting to watch, because it isn't just people bumping into each other anymore.
Well just like how 1/3 from three is equal to 1/2 from the 2, guys who are good at the 2 pointer also score more points. If giannis can shoot 80% on dunks and layups thatâs waaayyy more efficient than the best 3 point shooters
@@lik7953 Indeed. Also tends to be harder to get close enough to get those shots off as you have to get through the defenders unlike with shooting 3s. I think there are still stars like Giannis that aren't about 3s, but I do think the game has shifted too far in the other direction. I found the Warriors with Klay and Curry to be super boring to watch. What's nice about 2s is all the creative ways players get to get through the defense, and the acrobatic jumpers and layups. Defense also got more involved this way.
No one is arguing that 3pt shots should be 100% of shots taken which is kind of what you're doing - 51% is the highest mentioned in the video. Of course 2pt shots still play a critical role in the game. But to counter your point on fast break points, players turn down the easy 2 for a 3pt shot all the time! Ask yourself, is that because they know the analytics or is that because they think they have a better chance of hitting the shot? If it's the former then you've just lost the argument.
@@Mzee1084 I find it odd that you find the Splash brothers boring to watch when the Warriors play the most team ball in the past decade. They lead the league in team assists, cut, slash, screen, etc⊠and itâs not just to shoot 3s. In theyâre dynasty years they were actually a really balanced team that actually shot more 2s than 3s. (Bogut, Barnes, Livingston, Iggy, Klay, Durant, West, etc⊠provided a lot of interior scoring). They just had two of the best 3 pt shooters in NBA history, so the league tried to mimic the 3s and everybody started jacking them up. They literally play team basketball. Iâm guessing you donât actually watch GS play outside of highlights.
@@marqshaw7888 I watched a little bit of it, and I found it boring. Still way to many 3s for my taste. I don't watch that much of the NBA these days because of the 3 point fest, and lack of defense due to rules changes. The more physical play of the 80s, and 90s was much more enjoyable to me, and 3s did exist back then, though not used nearly as frequently.
The 3 Point line has been there for years since the 80s it only took years for people to realize they can utilize it the way teams do today, something that has been apart of the game for so long shouldn't be changed
Itâs not just about the line, itâs also about a lack of physical defence imo. Thereâs just more room to take those 3pt shots now.
nah ball isn't breaking--it's just evolving
The answer is on Defense. Allow for more defensive pressure outside the 3pt line⊠decreasing league wide 3pt percentage and increasing the value of the long 2pterâŠ
My thoughts exactly!
I'm not sure what you mean by more defensive pressure, NBA defenses have already extended further out.
@@chrisyoung1720 I meant more leniency on reach in calls and a bit of hand checking. Allow the defender to get their hands in there and get closer to the defender. Similar to the illegal contact rule in football outside 5 yards⊠once the defender steps within the 2pt lines, back to normal⊠make the 3 ball harder to get off
@@cjezinne I actually think that's an interesting idea, but I do think the amount of picks modern NBA offenses use could easily negate that extra defensive pressure.
There's someone running down court and moving off of screens to get open while the team kicks the ball in to draw the defense in, only to kick the ball out for an open three. Then, there's someone coming down the court, and because they're behind the line, chucking something up at the rim hoping to make it.
Another factor that has come into play is the way defense has been played in the past compared to now. The rules are only now being slowly changed to allow defenders to, like, actually defend.
3 pointers also went in way more because of foul baiting and players being scared to foul 3 point shooters but now thanks to the new rules players donât gotta be scared to close out on shooters.
The reason so players are taking so many threes is because of the officiating. Literally any type of contact is a foul. So now defenders are basically forced to let their opponent shoot jumpers in their face because the donât wanna risk give up 3 free throws.
Nah thereâs a rule to prevent unnecessary contact to draw fouls
If all contact was a foul wouldnât that incentivize driving to the basket and created contact? The reason take more 3s is because theyâre worth more points. Thatâs pretty much it.
that's actually not the reason.. the reason is exactly what they said in this video. analytics suggests shooting threes is better, so more teams started shooting more threes
o3t0r1ya But analytics is wrong inside shot are not 50% only mid range is 50% with several exceptions where a mid range player can have greater than 50% at mid range. What is actually happening is that >33% 3point shooters are cheap so teams can stack their lineup with as many shooters as they want. But >50% mid range player are very expensive and there are only a few of them. Also the coaching staff buy into the myth that 3points are always better and misuse their talents who have >50% mid range shot. People who can't do math are doing math incorrectly.
@@austinz9310 but if no one can guard you from the 3 donât you think teams will look for 3 point shooters and older players would want to change their game. You missed my point.
It's not the 3 point line, it's been there for a long time. It's the defensive option (lack of) at the perimeter that's making 3pt shot statistically the more valuable shot that lead teams like Rockets and Warriors hurl the ball from deep all the time.
?
True. The rules favor three point shooting but the NBA updated the rule book, so shooters canât intentionally draw fouls anymore. I think defense is gonna be a lot tighter now.
@@nathanlevesque7812 If they allow the teams playing defense more ways to guard shooters at the 3 point line such as bringing back hand checking or don't give fouls so easily to players like Harden when they do pull up 3s.
@@nathanlevesque7812 rule changes to how you check dribblers have drastically changed. The limitations put on how the defense can legally guard is similar to what has happened the last decade in NFL with pass interference. Back in the early 80s, a defender could push and pull dribblers with both arms⊠sonetime in the 90s, they changed that to one arm. Now they rigorously call any defensive contact⊠even when the offense initiates contact.
@@RSMoreno Last time I watched, the players were constantly grabbing each other's jerseys. Even that is obnoxious to me.
Break it down into 1/4 points and add more lines so that the point lines fit better with current and future probability.
its breaking the basketball we like and was used too. just evolving is all
Perfect timing for Klay Thompsonâs return
African round ball
What do you mean?
Alternatively you can make a 2 point shot worth 3 points and a 3 point shot worth 4 points. This then still gives shots beyond the line more value than shots within, but devalues it significantly since shots beyond the line are only worth 33% more than within as opposed to 50% more.
and floppers like harden would shoot 25% to 50% more freethrows.
Yay!
@@ricklocket2812 harden doesnât even get much free throws with the new rule â ïž
I like this idea, however it would implicate the scoring system. Free throws would have to be worth 1.5 points for 2 free throws or a decimal for 3 in order to add up to 4 which wouldn't work. Then scores would start looking like 88.5 to 90.5 and it would just be weird. I'm sure there's a solution, however.
@@michaelg34 you could just shoot 3 free throws or 4 free throws for fouls inside vs beyond the line
@@robnichols229 the problem with that is it would slow down the game. I donât really have a stake here as I despise nba. But another idea could be 8 (or 7) behind the line 6 for a traditional bucket and 3 for a free throw.or it could be 5,4,2.
Great video! The NBA should try something where 3 pointers are allowed only in one quarter
I feel watching steph curry shoot 3's is leagues more interesting than Kareem's Skyhook, which literally did break the game and make it unfun to watch at the time.
This why I loved the Suns/Bucks finals. 2 teams that play outside/in and inside/out. They had 3 point shooters, mid range players and post players. The perfect mix.
If only the Suns had more experience together, then they would've won.
@@Wasserkaktus Phoenix lost to the Finals this year both on the NBA and WNBA.
@@wazzup233 So?
@@wazzup233 That's tuffđ„đŻ
The change to how fouls are called for shooters initiating contact should change the game a bit. Defenders will be able to guard the perimeter better, and the three-point shooting percentages will drop as a result of more defensive pressure and more misses counting in the stats as the players don't head to the free throw line as much.
when they took away hand checking, it was green light for shooters ever since.
It was mentioned that before the line no one really shot from that distance but Iâm pretty sure pistol shot from that distance and beyond and was making them with a good bit of consistency
Random question, might anyone here know how the charts at 0:14 are generated? Is it R, or some other programme? Would love to know how to do these.
"God fights on the side with the best Artilleries" --Napoleon
Artillery only
@@fattahrambe good point, "artillery" is usually used as singular. But, "artillery" can be countable as well, and it is suitable for this context too.
@@fattahrambe
I was there. Napoleon said "artilleries." We used to call him Lil Nap.
yeah the word artillery can be used to refer to many artillery or just one
@@badmanskill1112 thatâs a shame I didnât see him say that I died in borodino when the Russians did a cavalry charge
Is it just me or was Curry never mentioned at all in this video⊠a bit strange considering he is the single biggest reason for this shift in the NBA.
Math was the biggest reason for the shift.
Lol basketball simp
No they are correct. Guys like Morey and statistics are the reason for the shift. the shift just allowed Curry to flourish.
Heâs overrated
@@barakobama9743 tell me how
basketball is as popular as ever in almost every country in the world, keep the game how it is
Adjusting the court to modern pro athletes seems like another evolutionary step from widening the key to adding the 3 pt line. Wider court, equidistant 3 pt line set a little farther back. Then they can bring back the trapezoidal key from 90s Dream Team memories yessss
They need to thank George Mikan, he's the one put it on ABA
You forgot to mention that Steph Curry is the reason that 3s skyrocketed duting the 2013s
How many "2013s" do you think there were?
Because it was so much more interesting when all that mattered was who has the tallest player to throw it in to...
It's more to do with rule changes than the line. It was always there and you showed how it was completely different at two different times.
Yea, lets not take any sports critique from VOX đ€Ł
imagine making a video about 3 point shooting and not mentioning Steph Curry
I thought I was imagining it too. He must be curry hater
He didn't start the movement. He just confirmed that it could work on a championship team.
@Sumukh Nitundila The biggest jumps in 3PA were in 13-14, 16-17, and 19-20. Steph was only a major factor in 2/3. Adam Silver took over in 13-14. He wanted higher scoring and faster-paced games, so officiating was changed. Cutting out more physicality gave incentive for big men to shoot more jump shots. Since then, big men have gotten smaller and guards have gotten taller.
Imagine saying you watched the video but missing the name STEPH CURRY and two photos of him at 80 seconds in. One of us is lying so check it out.
@@jalenad11 keep dreaming dude
It's interesting that the total number of shots has remained fairly consistent the whole time
What broke the NBA was the hard ban on hand-checking that took place in 2004-05. Teams shooting 50+ threes per game is the result of making perimeter defense a (near-)automatic foul.
Competitive gamers would have figured this out the year it was implemented.
Pro athletes took over 20 years.
ong bruh
Easy. Just make 3s less valuable by making 2s score 3, and 3s score 4. Thus, to be as good as someone shooting 50% from inside the line, you have to make 37.5% of shots outside the line
fascinating idea -- in this scenario, how would you score free throws?
Not enuf to only consider reward, it is still more valuable than 2s, and all those trainning makes the risk diferrence quite minimal.
@@rly1977 free throws, you get one shot at a 2 pointer and ball
@@longwu9412 that's not how analytics works.
That's not the point though ? Why would they do that ? There's a reason shooting behind the line gives you three because it's riskier and requires more skill and practice. More risk more reward simple.
What about reducing the advantage by changing the default score from 2 to 3points, then changing the 3-point line to a 4-point line ?
the meta of a game like that is always changing. sooner or later a team will come up with something new that will start winning and everyone will jump on that
The only answer for the reason why:
Stephen Curry.
Dirk Nowitzki was maybe the catalyst of this exponential grow on 3 point shots.....just because you aren't expected a 7'0" guy shooting from far away. But this is very interesting nonetheless. Also I think the international basketball game, any basketball outside of USA, they trend to play for the 3 point shot. They just adapting to the game and players too.
Dude, Dirk's 3 pointers literally fall from space đ Vox people need to realize that there is multiple ways to play a game đ€Š
Curry changed 3 point line
@@marcusmendoza2378 True, but Dirk did it before it was cool đ
@@marcusmendoza2378 don't forget about Ray Allen and check his numbers...just saying
It was definitely the GSW that caused the explosion. There were great three point shooters before that team but no team was heavily built around that like those Warriors are. You had guys like Ray Allen and Dirk but they were outliers in the NBA not norms.
The 3-pt shot should not have alterations at the moment. We have had great players within the arc e.g. DeMar DeRozan, Carmelo Anthony, Shaun Livingstone; all have made a name shooting midrange shots and have been excellent at it.
Daryl Morey isn't the first one to play with this sort of idea. David Arseneault, a D3 NCAA coach at Grinnell College realized the importance of the three way earlier. Though his system was even crazier with things like a constant full court press and hockey style line substitutions, and essentially shooting only threes. The campus legend was that the Grinnell System was originally someone's class project for statistics. Whatever the origins, it lead to multiple NCAA scoring records.
Yez 3 point line is important but in playoffs mid range jumper is a key. When you can excelled in both area youre literally unstoppable
This years playoff should show that the midrange ISNT dead
See how middleton and booker made living in the midrange
They might even make a 4 point line.
5 point line đ€đ€
6 point line!
7 point line
8 point line
I liked basketball in the 80s/90s and I like it now. I'm glad the game has changed.
I was the Korver of my team until a new coach came in our sophomore year and benched anyone shooting 3s. Never played a minute. Quit that offseason lol.
You know Iâm ok with stats but only when used right⊠There is a distinct correlation between loosening up foul calls and 3 pointers taken too. Look into that for a solution without over complicating it
correlation != causation
If the NBA does decide to take action, the main issue is that E(2pt shot) @ 50% accuracy is identical to E(3pt shot) @ 33% accuracy, and its much easier to hit 33% compared to 50%, even for bad shooters. This can be addressed by changing how points are tallied such that shots within the arc are worth 3pts and shots beyond the arc are worth 4pts. This means that teams would have to average 37.5% for a shot beyond the arc to be equivalent to a shot within the arc, assuming they're shot at 50% accuracy.
This would discourage teams from spamming low percentage, ill-advised threes and raise the benchmark for a competent shooter in the league.
Moving the line back can also be a solution, but players are likely to catch up in a few offseasons.
Three point shots make the game fun to watch for me
Gottta love the closing statement there. The fans really don't care. They love the teams and the sports and as long as we aren't changing the game dramatically and making it a different game all together then why worry about it. I'm surprised it took the NBA this long to figure out how that it makes sense to shoot more 3s. 30% from 3 is equivalent to 50% from 2. Why did it take 35 years to figure that one out?
It might also have to do with something I saw in another comment about how playing with the 3 point line adds that experience to next generation of players. When it was first introduced the people that were playing weren't trained with that line in mind, and the next generation was learning from a generation that didn't utilize it that much. The dude that mentioned this explained it way better than I could. It boils down to how experience is turned into wisdom for those that come after.
A comparison is the evolution of engines as a whole. Not just the gas powered ones we're so familiar with. It dates back to steam power.
My friend and I were just having this discussion last night. He said they should make the hoop smaller.