Historic Assembly Election: The Fall of Unionism in Northern Ireland | The Tonight Show
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- čas přidán 8. 07. 2024
- Claire Brock is joined by Political Correspondent Aoife Moore, Matt Carthy TD, Jim O'Callaghan TD & NI Editor for the Belfast Telegraph Sam McBride to discuss the future of Northern Ireland after the historic Assembly Elections.
Sinn Féin has won the majority in the Assembly Election, however, the prospect of an active Stormont seems very far away.
DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson has met with Brandon Lewis and has made his stance clear - the DUP will not go back into power-sharing unless the Northern Ireland Protocol dispute is resolved.
Sinn Féin leader Michelle O'Neill has urged DUP to reconsider and to allow a power-share in order to have an active Stormont that can tackle the ongoing cost of living crisis in Northern Ireland.
Jim O'Callaghan believes that many in Northern Ireland no longer see themselves in shades of green and orange, and he believes this is a positive change.
He states the importance of an arrangement between Sinn Féin and DUP as there have 3 Assembly Elections in the past six years. But during those six years, we have only had an executive sitting for two years. He believes the people of Northern Ireland deserve an executive formed from their votes.
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#TonightVMTV #ClaireBrock #NorthernIreland #Unionism #DUP #Alliance #Stormont #SinnFéin #JeffreyDonaldson #MichelleONeill #AllianceParty #FirstMinister #BorderPoll #TheProtocol #BrandonLewis #StormontStalemate
If DUP don't want to sit in government continue on without them.
Im from Derry, I lived and worked in England for 15 great years. FACT The average English person does not give a fiddlers F... about Northern Ireland. The tories know that bye now.
Your probably right and it’s understandable, that’s why SF/IRA have kept up their constant anti Brit sentiment (previously killing) at every turn!
And your point is? 🙄
@@zxgeorger he actually made his point perfectly!
The misconception that The English don’t care is Wrong, we look, we watch at what’s happening in Northern Ireland, just because we don’t yap and bark and throw out threats like the Irish state and the EU have doesn’t mean we will sit by and watch terrorists drive a wedge between Northern Ireland and the U.K., don’t underestimate the fact that Scottish, English, Welsh Loyalists will support our Brothers and Sisters in their fight for freedom..
Correct. The English and Welsh do not care about Norn Iron.
It is the Scots that want to keep Norn Iron in the UK..... Even though they themselves are not sure if they will keep in a political union with England and Wales....
People of the South - be grateful you dont have to deal with the DUP on a daily basis.
Well said come join us
@@dannyboy5517 The Irish people living within the North want to live within the Republic of Ireland and have a place in our own country. We would join again tomorrow if we could.
@@magaolinewood9268 what a go we could make of it
@@dannyboy5517 The issues lie obviously with these crazy loyalists.
The nationalists don't want any wholesale changes and just want to get on with fixing partition. The loyalists of course will drag their heels.
We have finegael instead
A great many people in the Six Counties recognise that the DUP made a series of poor choices over Brexit and risked all in the hope that the customs border would be along the partition and be seen to arrest their perceived creep to reunification. "When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression," the DUP and TUV are still fighting the last war and are yet to come to terms with the new realities. Sinn Fein have their own problems and lunatic fringe but they have worked very hard to position themselves as a viable 32 county party. If Donaldson and Poots felt that Leo stood up for Ireland just imagine the teeth grinding if Mary lou visits First Minister Michelle Neil as the Irish Taoiseach. They might be better of just coming clean to Unionists and saying they were wrong to back Brexit, wrong to channel Leave funds to circumvent spending limits, wrong to torpedo May's lighter touch deal, wrong to fail to recognise the broad support the protocol enjoys as a means of mitigating Brexit damage.
The problem is the dup & tuv will never come to terms with the new realities. Jim Allister is a bitter wee man stuck in a time warp still living when unionists governed the six counties like a second class dominion.
"When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression," > Who said this again?
Everything that has dropped unionism and boosted nationalism in the past decade has been at the direct fault of unionism; brexit alone itself, the seat reduction in Stormont, and now the protocol. Like I think us nationalists are sitting by laughing because who could have expected this haha.
Own goals are the. Strangest way to win .but we will take the. Victory
If Mary Lou visits the North as the next Irish Taoiseach, Jeffery Donaldson and the DUP are going to have a coronary. And Jim Allister's head is going to swell up like a hot air balloon.
That power sharing thing needs to go if it means one of those parties fighting against the democratic will of the people who voted. This is what unionists do, hold everyone back and put history ahead of progress.
Yes DUP must move over
Power sharing was forced on the 6 counties because the Unionist majority treated Catholics like second class citizens and no one in the right mind would allow them to govern again.
Actually northern Ireland was held back since partation out of respect to rc people/voters most of whom must love troubles vote ira sinn fein.. Then all of a sudden rc voters believed in abortion on demand. Lgbt.. Anti everything whilst rest behaved
The “deadlock” here isn’t between Sinn Fein and the DUP for once, SF are more than happy to take the post of first minister.
The deadlock is between the DUP and the Tories. The DUP are refusing to take their seats because the Tories won’t get rid of the protocol, and the Tories won’t get rid of the protocol because they *can’t* get rid of the protocol without causing untold damage to the rest of the U.K.
So the DUP’s plan is to damage Northern Ireland by refusing to govern, in the hopes that the Tories will feel bad about a region with no Tory seats in it, with no leverage over Westminster.
the deadlock is between the DUP and reality...
It’s pretty jarring to hear Donaldson talk about “political stability” when he knows full well that scrapping the Protocol and reinstating a hard land border will guarantee a return to violence.
It forces the U.K. Government to risk home rule which they definitely do not want. The DUP can force their hand
@@compedious591 the Tories don’t want home rule? You’re going to threaten the Tories by offering them *more* power?
@@envysart797 Northern Ireland is the chain on the UKs neck, that’s pretty obvious now. They don’t want more instability and further involvement in NI. They need the Assembly to run, they are already negotiating again
A lot of people who are Protestants would rather join their Catholic neighbors in the EU than remain in the UK. The reason is they see a better future for themselves and their families in Europe. They might be joined by Scotland soon enough.
Ultimately this is on the hands of Johnson and the Brexit Tories of the UK.
The shinnies are no more catholic than they are nationalists.
Young Protestants want NI to be progressive and a nation with a bright future. This cannot be done under Unionist parties which pushes these voters to alliance. Alliance think United Ireland conversations are a fantastic idea so without a doubt these young Protestants will be showing up and telling us what they want in a United Ireland, and it’s been made clear from both Sinn Fein & Fine Gael that they’d be willing to make compromises in order for a United Ireland to be for everyone. The DUP/UUP/TUV won’t step a foot inside conversations, this will help drive more voters away from them, bc why are they scared of the people deciding for themselves?
@@brendanshannon1706
It's because some people live in a reality that hasn't existed for decades. When the leaders of political parties have thir heads in the past, their parties have no future.
@@danboyd2725
You’re very correct. Technically speaking, anyone born 1988 onwards doesn’t have a true view of the troubles as the GFA happened when they were 10 or younger. Those same ppl are 34 of younger today, each year the old die out and the new electorate come in. This is why we speak of a United Ireland being an inevitability, because when sectarianism goes down, nationalists will flourish. Unionists on the other hand, well “when you’re accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression”
No EU , unless they drop all their vaccine mandates, e.g Austria, Greece etc
When you are used to privilege equality feels like oppression
Does that extend to people in the Irish media living off the taxpayers for their opinions when everybody else does real work for their wages????????
@@themsmloveswar3985 How do you even draw any comparison between the original comment and your incoherent reply?
What priviledge is it your talking about, I'm 64 and have never seen this elusive privilege your talking about....
@@themsmloveswar3985 got something on your mind?
PRIVILEGE LOL:WHAT YOU ON ABOUT,I'M FROM BELFAST TAKE IT YOUR NOT?
I believe the Doors have a song for this occasion, "This is the end my friend"
The REAL DUP must make a stand!
Decent Ulster Protestants!
The political DUP must not be allowed to keep Northern Ireland in the old dark days.
The entire World will readily do business with NI.
Call me sexist, but Ireland has the best looking politicians, especially Sinn Fein.
Are you talking about Arlene Foster?
That Michele O’Neal has some nice jugs
lol
🤦♀️😂😂
@MsMissy yeah. Nowadays he just SOUNDS the sexiest. Age is cruel.
YES🇮🇪🇮🇪 UNITED IRELAND 🇮🇪🇮🇪
Unionism in Northern Ireland is in turmoil and denial about the rise of Sinn Fein. In Britain Sinn Fein's success has been underplayed, but can't change the reality of a Sinn Fein First Minister.
there is 300 million, Not 3 million, if you are going to talk make sure you get it right
"Not" should not be capitalised in your sentence where as "there" should be capitalised. If you're going to rant make sure you get it right 😂😂
@@Jcolbert123It's "whereas" & you obviously haven't heard about using commas to punctuate your sentence.
@@loulou2817
Take a xanax and calm down Louise.
Sam Mcbride "it drove people from the DUP to SF ??? what a load of BS
He didn't say that. He said "It drove voters to SF", implying that Nationalists who mightn't normally vote SF, would do so this time.
@@dontmesswithcrows still wrong either way. SF vote increased 1.5% as it did in 2011 and in 2017. It's just a natural demographic increase. I wouldn't call that driving voters to SF.
@@RazorMouth have to agree with you!
The future's bright, the future's not Orange
The DUP did not accept the results as they failed to turn up on day 1. Let them stay outside. And give the deputy 1st minister job to the alliance party. Problem solved. The protocol is working. They just don’t want to sit in an assembly with republicans in the 1st minister position. Well done. Onward to the Republican 26+6=32. 💚🇮🇪
It’s £300 million waiting for Stormont to be spent.
Let's save it up for that train track
The DUP - a classic exercise in cutting off your nose to spite your face!
If you ask people what concerns them in their lives, of course they’re going to say things like cost of living, jobs, education, health etc. Most people aren’t normally “political”, even in N Ireland. That doesn’t mean they’re *not* concerned about their national identity and constitutional change.
This!
Unionists/loyalists holding the north to ransom on a continuous basis don't seem too concerned about the rights, overall, of Irish nationalists...
The only people concerned about change are unionists, as usual.
They want a gerrymandered statelet run by loyalists to actively discriminate against nationalists.
Yes🇨🇮 UNITED IRELAND🇨🇮🇨🇮
DUPlicity. We're back to Noland once again - NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO............ ad infinitum.
you have it in one
Scrolling down my feed I thought from the thumbnail that was the cast of Friends.
The brits intervene whilst criticising Russia
Mein gott ,I would love it ,Kevin Keegan love it ,if the Unionists keep banging on about the protocol for a few more months, AND get it scrapped.
If they get it scrapped ,it was be beautiful ,and sad. The north would then be exposed to Brexit ,and there would be no hiding place for Unionists. To repeat the idiocy of Brexit ,in plain sight.
England with Wales should unilaterally disolve the Union so Scotland gets their independence and NI can either join the Republic (and by extension the EU) or they can become an independent nation and make it on their own.
Jesus, cmon man, get real... the north CANNOT be an independent anything!
It's not a country ffs.
You're talking about partitioning of Ireland AGAIN... which has clearly failed.
An "independent" state would, again, trap Irish nationalists like before.
@@imastaycool Seems like the first option would be a no brainer then.
That 21.3% of northern voters would need to be on board
Now is the time to repartition NI or the unionists will be outvoted into living in the sovereign state they want no part of.
Who will be first to leave the UK Scotland or N Ireland?
Yes, young people/women being elected is hopeful.
I think the DUP need to swallow their spittle and get back to work.
Ira sinn fein deserved that for playing fair weather friend. Not for gfa but for EU. Time Ireland TV station called it northern ireland. Ni is Britain
Unionism is dieing it does make sense, wen Ireland is a country like England why would Ireland want to be divided I don't think England would like to be devided
YES👍️ UNITED IRELAND🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪
It also raises the point that maybe Northern Ireland’s power sharing agreement is a bad idea.
As Alliance have been putting forward, the requirement for cross cultural government only highlights the divides between the two communities, and doesn’t reflect the significant contingent of people who consider themselves northern Irish, not British or Irish. It also means you effectively have to affiliate yourself with one dude or another if you want any real power, and therefore encourages people to pick sides even if they don’t feel strongly about the national issue.
Power sharing is a bad idea? Seriously? And what's the alternative?
@ Envy’s Art
northern Irish = not Irish , not British
northern English = not English , but yes British.
The fact none but unionist work for NORTHERN IRELAND 365 AS REST JUST PROMOTE IRA SINN FEIN UNITED IRELAND DIRTY DREAM
@@Dannydantimpat huh???
The power sharing is in place because both sides can't trust the other side, power sharing protects both. Alliance can be summed up as people who through use the housing market, priced themselves out of the troubles and as such have nothing to lose by destabilising Northern Ireland by siding with one side over the other as they will not have to directly deal with a new bout of troubles. I would also point out that Alliance were heavily involve in the GFA, power sharing in it's current form is also their work.
Dup shouldnt be allowed to just veto everything and bring down the institutions needed to get policies through and get the money to places needed, if they dont wont to work the other parties should be able to carry on without them.
Erin go bragh 🇮🇪
What's the difference between Boris Johnson and President Putin ?
NI should realize it is the last part of the UK bird over the Brexit fence. Not a place of honor. Maybe it's time for NI to realize it would be better to return to the EU thru reunion with the south of Ireland.
Viva Los San Patricios!
Boris promised no border in Irish Sea.
he lies all the time, everyone knows that.
border has to be in irish sea as britains a foreign country and theres no way unionists will ever have a border in ireland ever again lol
@@jjmcquade31 clearly never been to ulster, unionists & especially loyalists would love to have land border & use the Uvf & Uda as border control. Why are you laughing?
@@Buckets1000 aye he did & to think he admired thatcher. Truth is tuv took 8% nearly 70k votes that can’t be ignored.
Very Derry city accent.
How'd we like from each other
knowing it has been tough?
what if deep inside you feel
most of you have had enough,
how'd you like it to be
what's coming from your nearest by?
our feelings on the horizon
still share the same sky.
Dreams as a shared space
beyond the current stream
like making a sound
by pulling the strings,
on C waves we can go...
like surfing from low to high,
tuning into the near future,
it's looking bright,
it's looking bright.
Nice to have you near,
glad to be your fair play,
we fuss water and earth,
we're bricks from nu clay,
the future is here,
our destine's to nearby stay,
nice to have you near, can!
can we know what's fair?
the future is here,
and, we know what's fair.
Move on from old fears, it
...should be the most dear
for been there I know
I wish you were here
building with our hands
what our hands had destroyed once,
hand in hand we could do,
we may dance we should...
... forget about nonsense,
leave nonsense behind,
we're playing this, we shall be
joined hand by hand,
hand in hand together,
together by heart,
hand in hand together,
tomorrow may shine...
Nothing will happen
Her name is Claire Brock but she looks and sounds like Claire Byrne, especially the hair parting.
There is no fall we have several party's who part n parcel are belonging to union as part of core vote.. Ira sinn fein can't win a election but like brexit believe that's a vote for breaking up country.
In real long term union added together means more seats. Protocol was vital as other issues are norm Via civil servants. Jim allister got half of alliance votes yet they got 17 seats yet Jim tuv got 1seat..every time Ireland vote they don't expect to belong to another soveign country. Dup can go until protocol done because this is world recession where every country must tighten its belt. NHS needs compete over haul and no one best to assist than UK military. Navy. Army. As they support NHS rest of UK in between other duties. NHS NI deliberately not taking up free apprenticeships that rest of UK has done. Stop these foreign health services poaching. Minium NHS or revoke nursing licence..
Brexit actioned next vote can be actioned that's democracy
Are people no longer able to speak without waving their hands about.
You've tonmuchnywllow tk survive or enough if the right stufg
I live in Ulster ✋
@@Buckets1000 😂 don't be ragin 🇬🇧
@@dasheddevelopments6125 Well laugh all ya like ya bitter fool but unitys coming so get used to living in a united ireland, no more queen no more union flag and no more orange marches up the republic lol
@@jjmcquade31 aghahhhhahahahha don't be ragin 🇬🇧
The first commentator made a mistake...she said the DUP vote slid away and we seen the rise of the Alliance party. That isn't factually true, the DUP did fall but their votes went to the more hard-line Unionist TUV. The vast vast majority of DUP voters went to the TUV. The Alliance gains came from a mixture of SDLP and lesser extent UUP voters moving to Alliance, put the fact Alliance are transfer friendly meaning they got many more seats based solely on the transferable vote system.
More nonsense from people who don't know what they're on about,
Surly the beginning of the the end forBritish Unionists. We need a reunited Ireland 🇮🇪
While it is true that the percentage of the Northern Ireland vote for explicitly unionist parties barely reached 40% in this election, it is also true that the nationalist vote has remained stuck at around 40% for the past 30 years. I can recall one election where Sinn Fein and the SDLP vote together reached 43%. That seems to be the high water mark for Irish nationalist parties in the Six counties. But 43% isn't enough to win an Irish Unity referendum. Am I missing something?
The allince party is pro European,
I don't think you are missing anything. However, all people born on the "island of Ireland" are "Irish", not necessarily politically, but simply geographically. And, up until the "advisory referendum" on Brexit in 2016, all people born on the island of Ireland were members of the European Union, and based on the referendum results in Northern Ireland, seemed to be happy to be so.
So possibly a vote that is cast in favour of an Irish Unity Referendum may be based more on pragmatic economic, business, trade and geopolitical reasons and a desire to rejoin the EU with it's many advantages, rather than the typical domestic vote. We will see.
@@christinequinn5355 The original sin was the undemocratic partition of Ireland against the wishes of the majority of Irish people. If the world thinks it was wrong of Russia to grab parts of Ukraine, than it is equally wrong for England to grab part of Ireland.
I think you are missing something. Polls show not all SDLP supporters are firm for reunification. You can feel Irish so vote for a party that promotes an Irish identity and still feel that your society is better off for now in the UK. Similarly some Alliance people are for reunification but it's lower down on their list so they vote Alliance.
30 years ago the typical Alliance voter was a middle-class liberal Protestant small-u unionist. These days Alliance are much much larger and also get very significant amounts of votes from nationalists in heavily-unionist constituencies. In somewhere like Lagan Valley or Strangford the chances of SF or SDLP actually getting elected have historically been slim-to-none, so many nationalists vote Alliance instead. Transfer patterns and polls over the last couple of electoral cycles consistently show that 30-40% of Alliance voters would vote for unification. So there are your missing nationalists. So accounting for this is there an outright nationalist majority? No, not yet, but there probably will be after another two election cycles.
Things could shift in favour of DUP once Truss amend NIP. NI will remain part of UK not NAZI Ireland.
Get your head out of the sand.
Aoife be raging
You all waffle and Claire shout down views they don't like. Yapping young.
Congratulations to Sinn Féin, and the Northern Electorate.
I'm a unionist and would love to see a border poll. The unionist party vote is split which allowed SF to gain a sembalnce of a majority in Northern Ireland. A border poll would prove what is widely believed, that unionism on the ground, despite the scaremongering of the political parties, is in better shape than ever. Because members of SF are encouraged to create multiple fake accounts on social media to give a false impression of numerical superiority, the reality of the numbers will be a brave shock to nationslists.
Jordan I am sorry to say I disagree , look at the 2011 census and recent demographic changes . Catholics have been having bigger families for decades , I believe I read that by 2030 catholics/nationalists could be almost at 60% of population while unionist could be as low as 30% . These are not my figures but data from many reports . History and time is against the unionist position , there will be an united Ireland the issue is When? . What amazes me is the fear mongering , Ireland is multi cultural , why unionist don’t look to the future within themselves and their immediate neighbours instead of the English ( as the Scot’s seem to want to go their own way as well. ) is sad . To me it’s like king Canute wishing the tide not to come it . As I said I am sorry you don’t see it as I do but the die is cast .
So as a unionist what is the fear of a united ireland? I just don't see what the fear is from a unionist perspective?
@@1961krm Kevin because more Catholics are born doesn’t make them SF supporters, or All Ireland supporters either, there are five in my pro UK Northern Irish household. Perhaps if ROI got on with looking out for its citizens and the UK/NI was permitted to do the same for Northern Irish citizens, we would all be much happier!
@@Dub1916 Rome Rule ,priests ,bad roads ,mass ,people dancing in crossroads, and the big bad EU.
@@colloquialsoliloquy6391 you don't get out much, 50 years ago I'd agree with you but that's far from the case today and is a complete reversal, everything thing you described is the north today except the eu part
Waffle waffle
It's amazing how many people who are considered political experts, getting well paid in the process, could speak such utter nonsense.
"Brexit is a state of mind", what does that even mean?
Institutionalised British xenophobia?
I agree with him, no point in showing a Brexiter how much damage Brexit is doing, it's like a religion to them or as he said, a state of mind.
@@RazorMouth that's nonsense.
Unionism is dying but so is traditional republicanism. The middle ground is the fastest growing in northern Ireland as people are tired of divisive politics.
How can you say traditional republicanism is dying when their vote has increased
Silly ira sinn fein had less than normal going to alliance.. Unionist has 3 party's added to gather is same as ira sinn fein. Ira sinn fein talked of nothing but ui.
I glad you remember and keep mentioning the IRA... they did their job well keeping you orange lunatics scared so 😱
Just remember, you don't have the British army or RUC to run to now 😏
After all said and done. The last vote is down to the unionists of the North. Let's be mindful the Catholic Church wanted separation in the act of the Union.
Look at ot this way. Leave it alone and its quiet .
Form a united ireland and there will be troubles again .
Choice wisely
Give over with your delusional scaremongering.
The unionist community doesn't have the British army or RUC to run to now.
They're an aging population.
Get real.
ooo so scared whats the uvf boogey men gonna do lol haha
@@jjmcquade31 who mentioned paramilitaries??
But your comment suggests where YOUR thoughts are ☻️🤦
Well try to put a brave face on it but clearly this election result is disappointing for anyone dreaming of a united ireland this millennium. Even with the Brexit tailwinds SF could not improve its seat tally. The DUP held up remarkably well despite losing over 60,000 votes to the more hard-line TUV, even so they are just 1 seat behind SF. The UUP hoped that peddling a softer line on the protocol would be their salvation but it backfired and many of their 'soft unionist' votes slipped away to Alliance. Overall unionists are still on top, who would have bet on that given all the hype. The election also shows that the required cross-community support for the protocol does not exist and now we must see moves to have it scrapped
No. What we have just seen is the last (or second to last) Unionist election. Unionist Parties and Unionist independents won about 20,000 more 1st preference votes than Nationalist Parties. Within 10 years Nationalist Parties will win 30,000+ more first preference votes and 4 to six more seats in the Assembly (Belfast N, Belfast S, Upper Bann, Lagan Valley, Strangford, and South Antrim) and Unionism will never receive more votes than Nationalism again.
The wildcard to this is Alliance and Green.
NI is at its tipping point and starting to tip demographically. I believe its the birthdate of 1975. There are more Unionists above the age of 48 than Nationalists and there are more Nationalists below the age of 47. The extremes are at either end. 2/3 of those who are 70 are Unionists. 2/3 of those who are 15 are Nationalists. The demographic timebomb is at its tipping point.
Within the next 10-12 years one of those seats in each district above will flip from Unionist to Nationalist simply for demographic reasons and how people are moving around. The other districts will probably stay the same representative wise. When that happens NI will have a 41 to 32 seat advantage for Nationalists and a Nationalist vote larger than Unionist. By 2035 there will be real pressure to call a referendum. By 2040 the UK will have no choice but to call one. By 2040 east Londonderry and North Antrim will also see seats flip and then the assembly would be 43 to 30 or even worse for Unionism if they lose the last seat in Foyle or their second seat in Fermanagh. By 2040 nationalists may actually win a seat in East Antrim. Now imagine a 45 to 25 majority with a 20 seat Alliance. This will be about the time the UUP wins its last seat and all Unionism is simply DUP while Nationalism is splintered into 3 parties. This is the point the UK can no longer not act. The only Unionist majority will be above the age of 65.
The demographic trickle will become a flood within 20 years.
The protocol will not be "scrapped". A couple small adjustments will be made to ease trade.
@@mikeburke7053 So it seems to me what you are trying to say is that power-sharing has run its course and now its time to make way for a future nationalist majority.
A work of fiction that maybe gives a bit of insight into what SF tells the troops.
Bye the way, where do you call home Mike, is it Dublin or Cork?
@@asanulsterman1025 No. What I am trying to say is exactly what I said.
I said nothing about power sharing. I do not understand how an honest person would infer that I said anything about power sharing.
Nothing I said was fiction. I simply described the demographic situation that exists in NI today. I was "wrong" by the way. While I looked at the numbers today, I failed to include PBP as "nationalist", but they are. If I add up the independents, both nationalist and unionist, as well as workers party, NI conservatives as Unionist, IRSP, etc., and sort them into the final vote:
Then I conclude that out of 825,000 votes, the Unionist majority first place preference in 2022 is 9,000.
I am not sure what to make of the Alliance and Greens. I see their secondary votes as swinging slightly more nationalist but that depends upon the district.
So, I apologize for giving Unionism a 20,000 vote advantage when it should be 9,000.
The demographics are not fiction. There is a tipping point, and it is about 47 years old. Every day, more Unionists die than Nationalists, and every day more Nationalists turn 18 than Unionists.
My conclusion is that, assuming the executive does not crash and the next Assembly election is in 5 years, the last Unionist election is for UK Parliament in 2 years. Perhaps a 1000 vote Unionist majority in that election. I predict that that 2024 election will be the last Unionist election. (Obviously this depends upon the executive sitting for 5 years).
Look at the numbers. NI is at a tipping point. There will be more nationalist than Unionist voters by 2025 or 2026.
Should that break power sharing? No. Not until a UK secretary of state calls a referendum in 2032 -2040.
Where do I call home? I have lived in over a dozen cities in my life and multiple countries and continents. I currently live where a wonderful spring snowfall just covered the Idaho mountains. It is a glorious time of year to be in Idaho. I have never lived in Dublin or Cork.
I am not disparaging Unionism. I am calling this a "Unionist election". I am calling the next election "the last Unionist election" (assuming no snap elections). I am no fan of SF and hope the nationalist vote gravitates to SDLP. I am simply saying this is the tipping point and it is time to ask what comes next.
@@asanulsterman1025 Now imagine 23 years from now. 2045. The first nationalist is elected in East Belfast. Mid Ulster and Armagh lose their last Unionist politicians. Another Nationalist takes a seat in South Antrim.
So, 2045 now can become:
49 nationalist Assembly
21 Unionist
20 Alliance/Green
At this point only the people older than 70 are voting Unionist over Nationalist. I hear Unionist politicians claim "There will never be a United Ireland in my lifetime". OK, perhaps not. But then they say "There will never be a United Ireland in my children's lifetime". No. NI cannot exist in its current form in 2045. It is unimaginable.
If I was a Unionist, I would be pushing for a "Special Administrative Region", like Hong Kong and China for 20 years. Unionism has only about 15 years to negotiate this, 20 years from now they will not be in position to negotiate as they will have lost too much political power.
Imagine in 2040 NI becomes a SAR, and it transfers from the UK to Ireland. Between 2040 and 2060 NI has limited and gradually disappearing independence.
Stormont exists but NI national politicians sit in Dublin instead of Westminster.
Every year or 2 a system integrates. Year one, transit and transport, roads
Year 3 Park systems, Tourism,
Year 5 schooling
Year 7 Financial
Year 9 Health Care
Year 11 Police and Justice
Year 13 County governance restored in NI
and County Down exists again.
Year 15 Dole
until the end when the electoral system fully integrates and Stormont closes in 2060.
Unionism has 15 years to negotiate this. Unionism can request changes to the Irish constitution. 20 years from now Unionism will have lost too much power and the changes will come quick instead of gradual.
Instead, Unionism is crashing the executive and instead of requesting specific changes in The Protocol, that they can get, they are holding their breath like a six year old. The Protocol will disappear when NI disappears.
@@mikeburke7053 Oh dear, you really are delusional, the disappoint will be crushing. But you still have not answered the main question, where do you call home? methinks Dublin?
Hi guys
Are you Adam and Eve !
Even gave the Apple to Adam 🤔😜🙋♂️💟💟🌷🌷
Sinn Fein gained no extra seats while the SDLP lost 4, now nationalist voters will come to learn, once the protocol is gone that Sinn Fein can't deliver their wildest dreams. Maybe tomorrow, when tomorrow never comes.
😂😂😂😂😂😂
And unionism lost three