Lawrence H. Summers, Former US Treasury Secretary & Wall Street Week contributor explains why he sees the March jobs report as a sign that the economy is reaccelerating.
I completely agree with Larry Summers. Chair Powell is feeling pressure to give the market what it wants and is ignoring the data in order to make that accommodation. Not sound monetary policy in my estimation.
I’m with Powell on this. Knowing what a neutral rate is, doesn’t change things and even if it was possible to identify it, it would only be a snapshot in time
Yeah this is a government job led economic growth it is not coming from the business sector creating employment opportunities based on expanding business opportunities. Part-time job economy PR for the elections.
the driving analogy is actually pretty apt. If you see traffic conditions are telling you to brake or go faster, then no it doesn't matter what the spedometer says. There's a red light up ahead, you start applying the brakes. You see elevated inflation you keep rates restrictive. It doesn't matter if your spedometer says 35 or 30, it doesn't matter right now if R* is 3% or 3.5%
The jobs report is about how many jobs the nationals get than how many immigrants get, when you have a open border the jobs report will only spike as to cheap labour count increases.
He makes sense. Why ignore the current trends which are very positive for the US despite the higher rates.. unless weakness enters into the equation I don’t see why they would reduce rates….
Larry, this is the "largest industrial expansion since World War II", and the strong jobs market reflects the confidence in labor. Reshoring, foreign inflows, and factory builds are driving growth. IMF warning Powell/Fed against trying to return to 'printed-prosperity'[QE-x/$[ which could further 'devalue-the-dollar'.
Friday’s report noted that total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 5,000, from 275,000 to 270,000. January’s payrolls were also adjusted, but the bureau moved them them up by 27,000 after significant downward revisions in the previous jobs report. January’s total payroll gains now stand at 256,000.😊
2:43 how many of these jobs are being done with one artificial intelligence agent? There is at least one active one on the job boards that applies and does as many remote work jobs simultaneously as it can. Larry should have a sense since he was going to be on the open ai BOD.
The way they measure things is wack. The fact that we keep lumping housing into inflation is perhaps the biggest flaw. The amount of people selling and buying new homes are down, yet wages are up. So basically that’s more money in peoples pockets. 80k for average household income? That’s pretty high I’d say.
Yeah this is a government job led economic growth it is not coming from the business sector creating employment opportunities based on expanding business opportunities. Part-time job economy PR for the elections. Creating jobs while states and the federal government running a $34 trillion deficit.
Weird, nobody was making this argument when trump was president. They made it all the time under obama though, but not under bush 2. Maybe it's just a coincidence.
I completely agree with Larry Summers. Chair Powell is feeling pressure to give the market what it wants and is ignoring the data in order to make that accommodation. Not sound monetary policy in my estimation.
Agreed. Larry nailed it. The neutral rate is easily 4-5%.
Let's get inflation back to 2% sustainably -- no matter what it takes -- and *then* worry about the "neutral rate".....
Rate cuts, how about rate increases...
Summers has been around forever, and America just keeps declining. Reagan's shining city on the hill is gone, but Larry is with us forever.
larry summers is VERY VERY SMART economist i love listening to him and his analysis
😂😂 you are delusional he is an arsonist that enabled the 2008 crash
he's just another perma bear boomer
@@method341 he’s not
I’m with Powell on this. Knowing what a neutral rate is, doesn’t change things and even if it was possible to identify it, it would only be a snapshot in time
...and when we look at the revised numbers it will be mostly government jobs.
Yeah this is a government job led economic growth it is not coming from the business sector creating employment opportunities based on expanding business opportunities. Part-time job economy PR for the elections.
Yes. We are in deep $)it.
LOL You're obviously not data-oriented. Stick to Fox News and Newsmax.
@@TheHonestBroker
I was thinking the same thing.
@@Needcollegehelp hilariously bad take. ya know, once you start looking for confirmation bias, you'll find it everywhere --->
the driving analogy is actually pretty apt. If you see traffic conditions are telling you to brake or go faster, then no it doesn't matter what the spedometer says. There's a red light up ahead, you start applying the brakes. You see elevated inflation you keep rates restrictive. It doesn't matter if your spedometer says 35 or 30, it doesn't matter right now if R* is 3% or 3.5%
The jobs report is about how many jobs the nationals get than how many immigrants get, when you have a open border the jobs report will only spike as to cheap labour count increases.
Excellent explanation on Chinese domestic consumption suppression.
He makes sense. Why ignore the current trends which are very positive for the US despite the higher rates.. unless weakness enters into the equation I don’t see why they would reduce rates….
Thank you Larry. A rare voice of reason we can trust
Larry, this is the "largest industrial expansion since World War II", and the strong jobs market reflects the confidence in labor. Reshoring, foreign inflows, and factory builds are driving growth. IMF warning Powell/Fed against trying to return to 'printed-prosperity'[QE-x/$[ which could further 'devalue-the-dollar'.
*When will it be revised downward?*
Probably never last month got revised upwards.
Friday’s report noted that total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 5,000, from 275,000 to 270,000.
January’s payrolls were also adjusted, but the bureau moved them them up by 27,000 after significant downward revisions in the previous jobs report. January’s total payroll gains now stand at 256,000.😊
2:43 how many of these jobs are being done with one artificial intelligence agent? There is at least one active one on the job boards that applies and does as many remote work jobs simultaneously as it can. Larry should have a sense since he was going to be on the open ai BOD.
So much for modern monetary theory, deficits don't matter.
how about the real rate.
And more supply drives down wages.
The way they measure things is wack. The fact that we keep lumping housing into inflation is perhaps the biggest flaw. The amount of people selling and buying new homes are down, yet wages are up. So basically that’s more money in peoples pockets. 80k for average household income? That’s pretty high I’d say.
Who do you know who makes 80k? I just got a new job building medical devices, I have 7 years experience. I make 50k
@@skippyzk It’s federal household data.
Maybe the Fed should suck in some of the excess money supply.
they play for Wall St..........not for mainstreet
+600,000 fake jobs
-6,000 real jobs
____________________
-6,000 jobs
The did the math wrong! The did (600,000 + 6,000) / 2
Jay Powell is incompetent, terrible at communication. Sad and pathetic really.
Hahahaha but report lies what are the chances there is an election year how about that
Wow - beard
This guy said de globalization will lead to higher inflation 😂
none of these numbers are believable...
Why he looks so horrible
Part time jobs 😂
BS. All part time
Pretty ironic this guy wanting to see fiscal responsibility.
Every good jobs report is bad news nowadays, somehow. Are we ever going to get past this raging inflation fear?
Yeah this is a government job led economic growth it is not coming from the business sector creating employment opportunities based on expanding business opportunities. Part-time job economy PR for the elections. Creating jobs while states and the federal government running a $34 trillion deficit.
Weird, nobody was making this argument when trump was president. They made it all the time under obama though, but not under bush 2. Maybe it's just a coincidence.
good