The FED knows. They aren't committed to attacking inflation. They are going to continue to inflate, stocks and commodities will continue to go up with everything else. You can't just sit on cash waiting for a crash, get your money working for you, start buying in slowly and then gradually increase the pace of buying as the prices continue to drop.
It's a fact that recessions are a natural occurrence in the economic cycle, and the best approach is to ensure you're ready for them and have a proper plan in place. As someone who entered the workforce during a recession (2009), I experienced the direct effects of inflation and discovered the importance of generating increased passive income to counter it.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
How did you achieve it? I been trying to stick with index funds. I feel this new interest rates hikes could crash this economy. I'm looking out for a better investing strategy, I have a lump sum that inflation is steady eating up.
My CFA ’Margaret Johnson Arndt’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
While I agree with your sentiment. Do we think the other side is any less complicit? The song that went viral the rich men north of Richmond speaks to this. Most of us are working class and have a lot more in common than they want us to believe. Only when we unite will they hear us. Merry Christmas
@@soquick69Ya, then OA immediately went on to start attacking venues that booked him as "greedy" for basing ticket price of his fees. I'm ready to stand with any former lefty that abandons their BS like I did. Merry Christmas
The system is failing as a result of both government and federal policy. In the next days, the banking crisis would have to be epic and gigantic for the FED to decide not to raise interest rates. This won't happen; an increase and a crash are coming. There will be more negative portfolios this 2nd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy the dip'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder
Very true, you can be passively involved in the markts and still amass wealth-gains using an investment advisor. I first dabbled in stocks late 2019, just before the pandemic, and that same year gained over 150% with no prior investing experience, basically all I was doing was following directions of my advisor. We are working on a retirement ballpark of $3m and I’m certain my goal isn’t farfetched after subsequent investments and tremendous returns so far.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’AILEEN GERTRUDE TIPPY” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.
Great video George. Also note that these banks bought these bonds using leverage. That means that the total is at least 30x what we see. I’m betting the Fed extends the BTFP come March 12th 2024.
One must wonder why they are so very willfully ignorant/stupid...anyone who lives out here in the "real"world can see the damage. God help us, these people are steering us right into the ditch....they have done it on purpose ? Or they are actually stupid. Which is worse?
@@simon359 yes It's always a lie They will never tell you the truth You see citizens are slaves Pledged to pay an unpayable debt for a bankrupt corporation called government
Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
true, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far
George, thank you for your humor. It's appreciated when looking at the situation US economy is in. I love the way you back up your opinions with charts/stats.
BTFP was to provide liquidity for banks who experienced deposit flight so that they did not have to recognize losses on USTs. I wonder if they banks are now experiencing losses on their loan portfolios and now using BTFP in a manner to loan/sell what you can because auto, commercial estate and other loans are impaired and un-sellable.
Curious to see what happens in March. No way this goes away. They'll have to extend and massively expand this "temporary" program or banks start going bust again.
With the money supply / inflation up how it is, a small percentage is many more trillions than the 80s. Only problem is, not everyone is a millionaire.
George, keep in mind that the BTFP is a one year loan. Banks can re-up on the loans until March 2024. If they do they won’t have to pay them back until March 2025
Regardless, the banks have put up collateral worth less than the loans and will not have the capital to pay back the loans. If they borrow more then that will only deepen their debts and exacerbate the problem. It is just an extension of continually financing today with the promises of tomorrow. It is reckless and irresponsible. The problem will not be solved with more of what created it in the first place.
The so called low performers are usually the hardest workers. Ive seen dozens of people standing around talking while others were working hard. But when layoffs came, the hard workers got laid off while the talkers kept their jobs. If this continues, productivity will eventually be falling hard in this country.
Hi George, I hear financial managers saying that we have never had a recession in an election year, what do you think about that and do you think there is a way for the powers to be to kick the can further?
Given reduced inflation signals and as the Federal Reserve has halted rate hikes, what are the best additions for a $500K portfolio to enhance the overall performance of my portfolio next year
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
True, some folks employ hedging strategies or devote a portion of their portfolio to defensive assets that perform well during market downturns and such pointers are provided by engaging the services of market experts just like i did in 2019, amid rona-outbreak, and as of today, i can boost of a 45% enhancement on my $1m portfolio after acquiring assets recommended by my advisor.
Nicole Desiree Simon deserves credit as one of the finest portfolio managers in the industry. Her reputation precedes her, and I highly recommend looking her up to locate her online if you are internet-savvy
Thank you for sharing, I must say, Nicole appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
Great content George. Daniela Di Martino also makes an interesting point regarding liquidity and the election cycle. Once the Reverse Repo liquidity gets fully drawn, Treasury auctions will really start draining more liquidity out of the system. So far, Treasury auctions have been a net wash, as the banks have used the liquidity parked at the Fed under the Reverse Repo to buy these Treasuries (you can chart the inverse of the Reverse Repo balances against the Treasury account balances to see what I mean). Unless the Fed keeps the BTFP open by ballooning it way beyond what we have seen so far (BTFP flows are tiny compared to Reverse Repo), or the Fed starts increasing its balance sheet with Treasuries, liquidity tightness will become extreme (and things will really, really break). Don't count on fiscal stimulus this time, as Congress will not approve any form of helicopter money before the elections. At the current rate of decline, the Reverse Repo could be fully drawn by as early as the first week of February. That's a very long, long way until November.
@@crazyinvestor5987 Yup, that's very likely how it will play out......and would mark the very end of the Fed's credibility. The Fed Put will be as dependable as the sun rising every morning, to be enjoyed with a daily dose of your favorite "Inflation" coffee blend.
Also remember that Powell is on record stating the reverse repo has served it's function, & is being intentionally drained. If you believe that, I've got a near new bridge, in Crimea, I can sell you.
I wasn’t surprised when Powell pivot. All the government spending that’s happening. Going to need more government spending, bailouts, etc. 2024 is about be a life changing year for people. This crash will be beautiful. Rich get richer. Let’s get rich
I have IOU promissory notes from my great great grandfather mercantile shop from 1855 to 1858. He charged 10% interest back then. The notes ranged from $1 to $500. A dollar is what a common man made in a day.
Kia sales went from brisk growth to "dead flat" after students started to repay loans. The economy is definitely not strong, but not falling apart either.
How much effect will the future rate drops have on the balance sheets of the banks? Sure it will help their paper unrealized losses, but what about deposit flight?
The BTFP chart goes back to 2014 because that's when they laid the foundation for the manufactured crises, and created the BTFP in 2014 behind the scenes.
having recently experienced a technical recession, that many people seem to have forgotten about already, and the very confusing times learning the market as a new investor, im still very much looking for a more direct expectation/observation about how a "recession" will effect the individual aspects of the market, or how to take the most advantage of the recession, unless the answer is truly t-bill and chill, or long on treasuries, what else should i focus on that will profit the most.
Investors have just turned back the clock on the Fed’s tightening campaign and cast aside the Fed fears that ruled them for 15 months. It just gets very daunting to me when I’m sitting there looking at charts and trying to determine if i’m right or wrong! I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $300K for sometime now, I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
To begin with, there's a possibility of both losing and gaining everything; it cuts both ways. Secondly, what proves effective for person A might not be applicable to person B, so avoiding bandwagon investing is crucial. While some individuals are experiencing substantial six-figure gains in the current downtrend, it's essential to note that such strategies are typically successful when executed by individuals with comprehensive market knowledge.
this is inspiring! could you be kind enough with details of your advisor please? highly suspect i'm much too small game lately to handle investing myself, figured out its best to consult a license professional at this point
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Question: Could it be that due to the drop in rates, the treasuries the Fed is holding in the BTFD program have simply increased in value and the banks are not actually taking more loans? JB
What I see is restaurant packed with people, shopping mall packed with people, Amazon delivery trucks all over the place, airport packed with people, stock still booming, real estate still hot…
People make mistakes with their lives George. Financial, Geopolitical, Thermonuclear mistakes… No one’s above it no matter what the mainstream media tells you. All you can do is document the lies, pick up the pieces and do what you will. The game/song plays for a while and then the game ends…
This. BTFP was kicking the can down the road so that the crisis could occur in an election cycle. And during chaos, most people elect a better environment, usually the previous one they had right before the chaos started.
I like your videos man. Your laugh is so contagious. Makes me laugh as well. Everytime u laugh I end up laughing hard. Great work and videos man. Thanks
Maybe they also pivoted due to the unfolding crisis in the Red Sea with container shipping. This will nearly double the cost to reroute putting consumers in a bigger bind than they are now.
Some banks are also likely using the BTFP to get cash which they then stick in the reverse repo. The interest they make in reverse repo is higher than what the Fed charges in the BTFP so they make money on the spread.
People keep saying “pivoted”. Factually, we are still at pause and waiting. The “pivot” means to literally make an about face, change in direction. The “pivot” arrives when the Fed actually drops rates, in 2024.
Hello George!! Thank you for sharing the information. I have been following you closely. I'm wondering how the upcoming financial crises in America could effect developing countries like Malaysia?. Hope you can share some insight. Thank you for time. Happy holidays.
Seems like the BTFP has the same end result as QE. Also, if banks need to "loan" the treasuries to the Fed under BTFP for cash, then who is buying the new 2y and 10y treasuries, forcing the rates down? The same banks you showed are the primary buyers of those treasuries. Not enough "T-bill and chill" retail/secondary investors to offset that.
You should talk about practical strategy for investors. If what George is saying would play out, one good approach is to buy long term bonds now and dump them when the crash happens. Your bonds will gain a lot. Then sell your bonds and buy depreciated high quality stocks.
Had dinner with a woman who teaches ‘investing and economics’ at the Metropolitan University of Toronto and she believes there will be no recession. She also says that inflation will continue to go up because of the recent problems at the Suez Canal. This is what they are teaching the young adults!! I believe they will be a recession and I cashed out of the market but I did buy some Exxon recently. Thanks George.
Just to save the face and give an extension to this ponzi sceme. This will however jack up inflation rapidly and rob people further of their hard earned assets. Ultimately leading to a hard reset of world financial and economical system...
The Fed manipulates rates, it doesn't actually control them. So they are just trying to save face at the moment but are indirectly signalling tough times ahead with their announcement to cut Fed Funds rates starting next year.
I understood that the Banks handed over their debt obligation To The Federal Reserve Bank (say it was valued at 70 cents on the dollar par). The Fed physically holds onto that instrument, and "Loans" the bank the full $1 par value - and the loan is for one year. The Fed has now pivoted, longer term rates have declined, and the value of the debt instrument that the Fed is holding climbs higher in value (say to 80 cents). Then, this march to april the banks have to pay-off the loan and give the $1 back to the Fed. And in return the Fed will release the debt obligation back to the bank (at the 80 cent value). Am i correct? Yes, i see troubles with the banks having to re-pay the Fed. back the $1 that is due.
How does the bond market better predict? They are experts on debt. Could the record high categories for debt be a problem? Credit cards, auto loans, mortgages? What else is there in loans that is leveraged to all time historical highs?
you have a high gullibility quotient. committee members are ? they are using pencoils? get a grip. powell said no rate cuts. he has not pivoted. a pencil pivot is a scam
Impact will be soon; once we see the first domino fall and they actually begin cutting fed funds rates (assuming the Fed does not extend BTFP or any bogus bailout programs)
The FED knows. They aren't committed to attacking inflation. They are going to continue to inflate, stocks and commodities will continue to go up with everything else. You can't just sit on cash waiting for a crash, get your money working for you, start buying in slowly and then gradually increase the pace of buying as the prices continue to drop.
It's a fact that recessions are a natural occurrence in the economic cycle, and the best approach is to ensure you're ready for them and have a proper plan in place. As someone who entered the workforce during a recession (2009), I experienced the direct effects of inflation and discovered the importance of generating increased passive income to counter it.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
How did you achieve it? I been trying to stick with index funds. I feel this new interest rates hikes could crash this economy. I'm looking out for a better investing strategy, I have a lump sum that inflation is steady eating up.
My CFA ’Margaret Johnson Arndt’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
And F J B !!!!!!
Dude, you stole my most common comment.
All good
I see that your comment is by far the most popular one😊
While I agree with your sentiment. Do we think the other side is any less complicit?
The song that went viral the rich men north of Richmond speaks to this. Most of us are working class and have a lot more in common than they want us to believe.
Only when we unite will they hear us. Merry Christmas
Left and right, are both wings of the same bird! Unless we vote for a third party then we will face our own demise!
@@soquick69Ya, then OA immediately went on to start attacking venues that booked him as "greedy" for basing ticket price of his fees.
I'm ready to stand with any former lefty that abandons their BS like I did.
Merry Christmas
The system is failing as a result of both government and federal policy. In the next days, the banking crisis would have to be epic and gigantic for the FED to decide not to raise interest rates. This won't happen; an increase and a crash are coming. There will be more negative portfolios this 2nd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy the dip'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder
Very true, you can be passively involved in the markts and still amass wealth-gains using an investment advisor. I first dabbled in stocks late 2019, just before the pandemic, and that same year gained over 150% with no prior investing experience, basically all I was doing was following directions of my advisor. We are working on a retirement ballpark of $3m and I’m certain my goal isn’t farfetched after subsequent investments and tremendous returns so far.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’AILEEN GERTRUDE TIPPY” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.
Great video George. Also note that these banks bought these bonds using leverage. That means that the total is at least 30x what we see. I’m betting the Fed extends the BTFP come March 12th 2024.
BEST video of the YEAR!!! Thanks George!
The FED is assessing that the economy is far more damaged than they admit.
The Fed and the Democrats are the ones who did it too! 🥶
One must wonder why they are so very willfully ignorant/stupid...anyone who lives out here in the "real"world can see the damage. God help us, these people are steering us right into the ditch....they have done it on purpose ? Or they are actually stupid. Which is worse?
You think they care or tell ewe anything
@@bobbobertson6249
They care enough to lie to you! 🤪
@@simon359 yes
It's always a lie
They will never tell you the truth
You see citizens are slaves
Pledged to pay an unpayable debt for a bankrupt corporation called government
Nothing transcends a pickle the markets are in more than George's sarcastic chuckle
If you want the price of your shares to go up just print more money!!
How money's value is manipulated is a scam. I would like the ability to revalue my savings higher too.
Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
true, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far
I find your situation fascinating. Would you be willing to suggest a trusted advisor you've worked with?
Her name is “Vivian Carol Gioia” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials. I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
It's a rigged system
I wouldn't call the current Fed action a "pivot." It's more like a "vomit." Now comes the more painful part-- the hangover. Happy New Year, folks.
What happened to George's lawsuit against the Federal Reserve?
Probably went no where.
👍🏻👍🏻Another amazing vid!!
Well done George. Charts and data collection were very well presented. Thorough insight!
Bravo! you are standing in front of a whiteboard and you are better than ever. Stay put , no more drugs ever again.
Good stuff, Thanks!
George, thank you for your humor. It's appreciated when looking at the situation US economy is in. I love the way you back up your opinions with charts/stats.
Someone commented on your video from realistate mindset and im glad he did because you are real one👏✌️👍👌🤟🖖
Excellent episode 👍
BTFP was to provide liquidity for banks who experienced deposit flight so that they did not have to recognize losses on USTs. I wonder if they banks are now experiencing losses on their loan portfolios and now using BTFP in a manner to loan/sell what you can because auto, commercial estate and other loans are impaired and un-sellable.
Call it what you want the BTFP was and IS a straight up bailout
Curious to see what happens in March. No way this goes away. They'll have to extend and massively expand this "temporary" program or banks start going bust again.
Technically banks are underwater on most mortgages since so many people refinanced under ZIRP
4.3% for a treasury rate is still way higher than what it was for decades!!
With the money supply / inflation up how it is, a small percentage is many more trillions than the 80s.
Only problem is, not everyone is a millionaire.
@@thecomrade9284 Wisdom!
4.3 interest is way lower than what inflation is
Your best video ever ... and very timely. Thanks.
George, keep in mind that the BTFP is a one year loan. Banks can re-up on the loans until March 2024. If they do they won’t have to pay them back until March 2025
Regardless, the banks have put up collateral worth less than the loans and will not have the capital to pay back the loans. If they borrow more then that will only deepen their debts and exacerbate the problem. It is just an extension of continually financing today with the promises of tomorrow. It is reckless and irresponsible. The problem will not be solved with more of what created it in the first place.
J Pow singing in something pink and tight, "Oops, I did it again!"
Appreciate all this information! I learn so much!
The so called low performers are usually the hardest workers. Ive seen dozens of people standing around talking while others were working hard. But when layoffs came, the hard workers got laid off while the talkers kept their jobs. If this continues, productivity will eventually be falling hard in this country.
hahah I enjoy so much your vieos! excellent balance between funny jokes and valuable information :) Big fan!
Great video! and so pleasant the way you explain it. Thanks George, you are the best.
Hi George, I hear financial managers saying that we have never had a recession in an election year, what do you think about that and do you think there is a way for the powers to be to kick the can further?
They will try ...
Alsome video Mr Gammon, thank you for your work and dedication. Please continue to share your knowledge with us.
Smashing video mr Gammon, thank you so much 🤩👌👏👏
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼Very insightful 🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽Let me know when you will post a video about the fallaof Uneployment vs Fully employment. Many thanks
"Mysterious document"
"Just shocked everyone"
So everyone knows the mystery. Got it.
So George did you buy any long term notes or bonds at their peak yield? Or are you only sitting in short term notes still?
Given reduced inflation signals and as the Federal Reserve has halted rate hikes, what are the best additions for a $500K portfolio to enhance the overall performance of my portfolio next year
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
True, some folks employ hedging strategies or devote a portion of their portfolio to defensive assets that perform well during market downturns and such pointers are provided by engaging the services of market experts just like i did in 2019, amid rona-outbreak, and as of today, i can boost of a 45% enhancement on my $1m portfolio after acquiring assets recommended by my advisor.
Please how do I find and contact this financial counselor ?
Nicole Desiree Simon deserves credit as one of the finest portfolio managers in the industry. Her reputation precedes her, and I highly recommend looking her up to locate her online if you are internet-savvy
Thank you for sharing, I must say, Nicole appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
Great content George. Daniela Di Martino also makes an interesting point regarding liquidity and the election cycle. Once the Reverse Repo liquidity gets fully drawn, Treasury auctions will really start draining more liquidity out of the system. So far, Treasury auctions have been a net wash, as the banks have used the liquidity parked at the Fed under the Reverse Repo to buy these Treasuries (you can chart the inverse of the Reverse Repo balances against the Treasury account balances to see what I mean). Unless the Fed keeps the BTFP open by ballooning it way beyond what we have seen so far (BTFP flows are tiny compared to Reverse Repo), or the Fed starts increasing its balance sheet with Treasuries, liquidity tightness will become extreme (and things will really, really break). Don't count on fiscal stimulus this time, as Congress will not approve any form of helicopter money before the elections. At the current rate of decline, the Reverse Repo could be fully drawn by as early as the first week of February. That's a very long, long way until November.
BTFP or fed balance sheet will start to increase faster than all you bears can imagine
@@crazyinvestor5987 Yup, that's very likely how it will play out......and would mark the very end of the Fed's credibility. The Fed Put will be as dependable as the sun rising every morning, to be enjoyed with a daily dose of your favorite "Inflation" coffee blend.
Also remember that Powell is on record stating the reverse repo has served it's function, & is being intentionally drained. If you believe that, I've got a near new bridge, in Crimea, I can sell you.
@@Ambassador_Gkarhow much do you want for it 😂
all these boomers believe the fed after being repeatedly lied to blatantly time and time again@@Ambassador_Gkar
An absolute Clinic 👏
fantastic what you do! thank you.
Fantastic work George 👏 well explained. Thank you
a pivot is when they cut and only then. Nothing else is a pivot.
If you gaze long enough into the abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.
I wasn’t surprised when Powell pivot. All the government spending that’s happening. Going to need more government spending, bailouts, etc. 2024 is about be a life changing year for people. This crash will be beautiful. Rich get richer. Let’s get rich
Powell did not pivot
I have IOU promissory notes from my great great grandfather mercantile shop from 1855 to 1858. He charged 10% interest back then. The notes ranged from $1 to $500.
A dollar is what a common man made in a day.
Kia sales went from brisk growth to "dead flat" after students started to repay loans. The economy is definitely not strong, but not falling apart either.
40% of the student loans due in October were *NOT* paid.
How much effect will the future rate drops have on the balance sheets of the banks? Sure it will help their paper unrealized losses, but what about deposit flight?
Forward-looking!
You definitely have the best videos!
The BTFP chart goes back to 2014 because that's when they laid the foundation for the manufactured crises, and created the BTFP in 2014 behind the scenes.
@George is it possible that the BTFP ticked up because more money is moving into assets since the Fed indicated rate cuts?
having recently experienced a technical recession, that many people seem to have forgotten about already, and the very confusing times learning the market as a new investor, im still very much looking for a more direct expectation/observation about how a "recession" will effect the individual aspects of the market, or how to take the most advantage of the recession, unless the answer is truly t-bill and chill, or long on treasuries, what else should i focus on that will profit the most.
George - why is the BTFP going straight up while treasury yields plummet? what's the reason banks hesitate to lend one another?
The banks see HIGH risk.
Thank you George and all your team.🙂👍
Investors have just turned back the clock on the Fed’s tightening campaign and cast aside the Fed fears that ruled them for 15 months. It just gets very daunting to me when I’m sitting there looking at charts and trying to determine if i’m right or wrong! I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $300K for sometime now, I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
To begin with, there's a possibility of both losing and gaining everything; it cuts both ways. Secondly, what proves effective for person A might not be applicable to person B, so avoiding bandwagon investing is crucial. While some individuals are experiencing substantial six-figure gains in the current downtrend, it's essential to note that such strategies are typically successful when executed by individuals with comprehensive market knowledge.
this is inspiring! could you be kind enough with details of your advisor please? highly suspect i'm much too small game lately to handle investing myself, figured out its best to consult a license professional at this point
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Question: Could it be that due to the drop in rates, the treasuries the Fed is holding in the BTFD program have simply increased in value and the banks are not actually taking more loans? JB
No. The graph is not the value of bonds the Fed is holding. The graph is the total amount borrowed by the banks.
Thanks George! 🎉
What I see is restaurant packed with people, shopping mall packed with people, Amazon delivery trucks all over the place, airport packed with people, stock still booming, real estate still hot…
The raises they’ve made haven’t been in place long enough to make full affect. Now, they gonna cut them? …not healthy behavior!
People make mistakes with their lives George. Financial, Geopolitical, Thermonuclear mistakes… No one’s above it no matter what the mainstream media tells you. All you can do is document the lies, pick up the pieces and do what you will. The game/song plays for a while and then the game ends…
Never let a crisis go to waste
Thanks George and rebel crew
This. BTFP was kicking the can down the road so that the crisis could occur in an election cycle. And during chaos, most people elect a better environment, usually the previous one they had right before the chaos started.
Name that next "Special Facility" for the win Alex!!!
I like your videos man. Your laugh is so contagious. Makes me laugh as well. Everytime u laugh I end up laughing hard. Great work and videos man. Thanks
Banks are consolidating here. What's going on in Colombia?
Great video content!
Brilliant George. Thank you
Inflation is over for them. We get to eat what's left over.
Maybe they also pivoted due to the unfolding crisis in the Red Sea with container shipping. This will nearly double the cost to reroute putting consumers in a bigger bind than they are now.
I dont believe that is on a scale enough to affect their decisions
@@user-vs3nt8ch2q It is though. Nearly a trillion dollars in goods and commodities/services pass through the Red Sea every year
Need followup on what this implies for retail investors!
More cash in the system.
Some banks are also likely using the BTFP to get cash which they then stick in the reverse repo.
The interest they make in reverse repo is higher than what the Fed charges in the BTFP so they make money on the spread.
Awesome education in economics George. Happy Holidays
What can I do to protect myself in the coming year?
People keep saying “pivoted”. Factually, we are still at pause and waiting. The “pivot” means to literally make an about face, change in direction. The “pivot” arrives when the Fed actually drops rates, in 2024.
Thanks Georgge!!
Hello George!! Thank you for sharing the information. I have been following you closely.
I'm wondering how the upcoming financial crises in America could effect developing countries like Malaysia?.
Hope you can share some insight. Thank you for time. Happy holidays.
Seems like the BTFP has the same end result as QE.
Also, if banks need to "loan" the treasuries to the Fed under BTFP for cash, then who is buying the new 2y and 10y treasuries, forcing the rates down? The same banks you showed are the primary buyers of those treasuries.
Not enough "T-bill and chill" retail/secondary investors to offset that.
You are not getting the money
It will be interesting to find out what this years bonuses will look like for bankers this year! Like in "God made a banker"
You should talk about practical strategy for investors. If what George is saying would play out, one good approach is to buy long term bonds now and dump them when the crash happens. Your bonds will gain a lot. Then sell your bonds and buy depreciated high quality stocks.
Eff No way
Had dinner with a woman who teaches ‘investing and economics’ at the Metropolitan University of Toronto and she believes there will be no recession. She also says that inflation will continue to go up because of the recent problems at the Suez Canal. This is what they are teaching the young adults!! I believe they will be a recession and I cashed out of the market but I did buy some Exxon recently. Thanks George.
University of Toronto ? They couldnt sell ice cold water in the desert !
Canada is so screwed
Love it George, great content again!
So, wouldn't we have run away inflation starting in 24? Lower rates more buying.. driving price up?
If not...what's triggering job loss then?
Would a pivot help lessen the blow of this or even avert it? Or is a pivot just to try and save face?
Just to save the face and give an extension to this ponzi sceme. This will however jack up inflation rapidly and rob people further of their hard earned assets. Ultimately leading to a hard reset of world financial and economical system...
A pivot shortens the pain but ensures the pain never truly goes away. If the global elite stayed out of our business we would have a chance
The Fed manipulates rates, it doesn't actually control them. So they are just trying to save face at the moment but are indirectly signalling tough times ahead with their announcement to cut Fed Funds rates starting next year.
As ZeroHedge said when it was unveiled, BTFP also stands for Buy The Fucking Pivot!
I understood that the Banks handed over their debt obligation To The Federal Reserve Bank (say it was valued at 70 cents on the dollar par). The Fed physically holds onto that instrument, and "Loans" the bank the full $1 par value - and the loan is for one year. The Fed has now pivoted, longer term rates have declined, and the value of the debt instrument that the Fed is holding climbs higher in value (say to 80 cents). Then, this march to april the banks have to pay-off the loan and give the $1 back to the Fed. And in return the Fed will release the debt obligation back to the bank (at the 80 cent value). Am i correct? Yes, i see troubles with the banks having to re-pay the Fed. back the $1 that is due.
How does the bond market better predict? They are experts on debt. Could the record high categories for debt be a problem? Credit cards, auto loans, mortgages? What else is there in loans that is leveraged to all time historical highs?
I feel like I've watched this video but it was worth watching again!
If i was in charge of the fed i would shut it down.
So very good at explaining eco data....
Interest rates should be what a FREE market dictates....
Thank you!
Why is everyone saying a pivot when in fact, it’s a pause.
It's market anticipation for a Fed pivot, because times are getting tough and the market is screaming for help.
@@ModPapaStill not a pivot.
T bills good? Keep interest rate at 5.39% fir 24 months?
Wheres the besy place to buy t bills in canada ?
Join in with me now!
“There may be trouble ahead
But whilst there’s moonlight and music
and love and romance,
lets face the music and dance”!🎶🎶🙈
Hello everyone hope you're well ❤😊
The main reason for the rate cut is the US election.
Precisely
Really fed up with the Fed.
not saying things can't turn to bad, but right now things(values like unemployment, rates ..) seem to gravitate towards average values.
Magoo was right. You're so easy to see through.
you have a high gullibility quotient. committee members are ? they are using pencoils? get a grip. powell said no rate cuts. he has not pivoted. a pencil pivot is a scam
Assuming the FED sees a crash, what might be the estimated date of impact?
When UN AGENDA 21 ramps for the kill
2143
If it doesn't arrive by August 2024, then this time it is different.
Ask the magic conch shell
Impact will be soon; once we see the first domino fall and they actually begin cutting fed funds rates (assuming the Fed does not extend BTFP or any bogus bailout programs)
George must know my friend Fred!
Nicely done