Parlor to Plate - June 26, 2024

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In the latest edition of the Parlor to Plate dairy podcast from Ever.Ag Insights, our all-star panel discusses upcoming reports. What are the potential long-term impacts of the current milk production decline? How might international competition affect U.S. dairy exports in the coming months?
Join host Katie Burgess and panelists Brian Fletcher, Brandon Weigel and Ryan Yonkman for a spirited discussion.
Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [e-mail].
Show Transcript (#)
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00;00;00;10 - 00;00;08;25
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;08;27 - 00;00;27;11
KATIE
Hello and welcome to Parler to play a weekly podcast from African sites dedicated to offering listeners enlightening discussion and actionable intelligence about dairy markets. I’m your host, Katie Burgess, and we’re excited to have you along today. If you enjoy the show. Please like us. Subscribe and tell a friend or two as we kick things off, let’s timestamp the episode.
00;00;27;11 - 00;00;47;27
KATIE
It’s about noon central time on Wednesday, June 26th, and to take a look at market today, we’ve got black cheddar cheese closing at 188 per pound. That’s up $0.02 from last week. Barrels finished at 190 per pound, down $0.04 from a week ago. Butter is at 309 down $0.02. And nonfat dry milk is trading at one 18.5 per pound.
00;00;47;29 - 00;01;06;25
KATIE
That’s down half a cent on the week. And looking at the grain market nearby, corn is at 426 a bushel. That’s down nearly $0.25 from a week ago, while soybeans are at 1172, down $0.02. Now. Let’s get to the show. These markets have been volatile here as of late. Last three futures have been up and down, up and down, back up against some.
00;01;06;25 - 00;01;28;03
KATIE
Today it seems like the market’s just trying to figure out where it’s going to land. And we’ve had a few big dairy reports out over the past few days. And a big grain report coming up on Friday. So to help us make sense of it all, we’ve got a great group of panelists along today. Not one but two representatives from the Chicago office Brian Fletcher, who works with commercial customers, and Ryan Jackman, who works with dairy producers.
00;01;28;03 - 00;01;34;13
KATIE
And joining us from Platteville, Wisconsin, we’ve got Brandon Weigel representing grain and feed market. How is everyone doing today?
00;01;34;17 - 00;01;37;22
RYAN
Doing great. Doing great. Katie, thanks for having us doing well.
00;01;37;22 - 00;01;55;14
KATIE
So guys, let’s run through these reports. Let’s do it in chronological order. So the first report we got of this recent streak was that USDA milk production report dropped last Friday right after markets had closed. So Ryan, can you give us an update on what it showed and what you think it might mean for the market?
00;01;55;20 - 00;02;18;07
RYAN
At first glance, U.S. milk production was down 9% year over year. And I think without any hard core analysis, that’s a sizable number. Less is less. And Bill likes to say versus our expectations came off as neutral coming out of what was a very tough fiscal year in 2023. So maybe not a huge surprise in regards to what we were expecting.
00;02;18;07 - 00;02;41;04
RYAN
But I do think US milk production is indeed 0.9% as we’re coming out within that, were there any signs of improvement? And I know the headline number is 0.9% zero. But in terms of the various regions in the US, has there been a rebound or is there signs that the worst might be behind us in certain areas? I guess in my own eyes you see a lot of the same.
00;02;41;04 - 00;02;56;18
BRIAN
You know, Midwest and Moody’s continue to show small signs of growth. We generally look at that pocket of the country as a little more insulated. When you think about how we’re set up with big land based growing a lot of your own feed, I tend to find a little bit more premium in milk when you’re in those regions.
00;02;56;18 - 00;03;13;03
RYAN
So feeling a little strength there. But when you go look around the rest of the country from the Pacific Northwest, the southwest and California, the declines continue to be in play. You can make the case. Maybe you start to see a little rebound in the southwest, but again, still making less milk in those regions. Those are the areas we know that have struggled.
00;03;13;04 - 00;03;28;26
RYAN
I think the hardest coming out of last year from a margin standpoint, take into account whether you’re taking on water, talked a lot about bird flu and it starting certainly in the southwest. So to me, I think I saw a lot of what was expected. Maybe a little bit of surprise to me, honestly, was to...