A Chainsaw to the Economy?
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- čas přidán 7. 12. 2023
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Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei describes himself as an anarcho- capitalist and says he will take a chainsaw to the Argentine government. He has campaigned that he will dollarize the economy and shut down the central bank. What does this mean and could it work?
Argentina mostly exports agricultural commodities but used to be one of the wealthiest nations in the world. Decades of economic mismanagement have destroyed the economy and created a web of artificial price and exchange rate controls that have produced huge distortions.
Milei is described as a libertarian economist whose ideological heroes are Milton Friedman, Robert Lucas, Murray Rothbard and Margaret Thatcher.
Milei campaigned on promises of taking a chainsaw to the state, closing down the central bank and replacing the peso with the US dollar. But he has made a dramatic shift towards moderation since winning the election.
Special thanks to @MoneyMacro for his help with this video. Make sure to check out his channel.
Check out my appearance on @NexusTRTWorld discussing Javier Milei at this link: • How mad is Argentina’s...
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Corrections:
1) Unfortunately, towards the end of the video I unintentionally referred to Milei as Macri a few times. The subtitles contain the correct names. Apologies for my terrible pronunciation too.
2) A number of viewers are claiming that the photo of Margaret Thatcher was actually Queen Elizabeth. I have double checked this and it was definitely Margaret Thatcher. Queen Elizabeth looked like this: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Da...
![Eminem - Houdini [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/22tVWwmTie8/mqdefault.jpg)
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Please turn off instant premiere.
Its annoying when someone dont start watch video with you and cannot move to start before it end.
Can you explain to me what is yours, or perhaps the commonwealth interest, in Argentina?
Patrick, we all know that was not likely a simple mistake 5:31. I'm not seeing the connection, except both refused to leave power. Ok, back to my Sunday droll, thanks as always from Canberra's beating heart.
After 32:00 you started calling Milei Macri 😂
Vive La Libertad, carajo!
Whatever your stance is on Milei, there's one thing we can all agree on: The utter incompetency of the all the PREVIOUS administrations is why he got elected in the first place.
Edit: Added Plural
Corruption seems to be the norm in most societies especially in 3rd world countries. Better to replace humans with android leadership:)
always worth mentioning that the utter incompetence of the last administration was heavily aided by the previous administration taking in a debt 120+ times above what argentina was capable of paying
8 out of every 10 dollars in argentina went to paying that debt during the last 4 years
And his opponent was the then incumbent Finance Minister (WTF)
Argentina has been on a downward spiral since Peron took over.
Like Trump after Obama!
The image of Queen Elizabeth in place of Margaret Thatcher made me spit my water out! HAHAHAHAHAH! 😂😂😂
I didn't get the joke. I thought it was a mistake but probably not since he's from the UK
haha i was like wtf! haha
@@ladanjiracek279Same - I knew it COULDN'T be a mistake, but I'm not getting the joke.
@@ladanjiracek279 He is from Ireland.
I think it was a joke that Thatcher was more like a monarch (certainly some people believed she acted like one) than a PM.@@MichaelCampbell01
Thanks for the shout-out Patrick. I always love talking econ with you.
Looking forward for your video Joeri!
I have a friend who lives in Argentina, and what they told me about the election was this: "you know how you freaked out about inflation at 5%? Ours is at 100%. The choice in this election was between a crazy guy and the guy who has run the economy for the last 20 years. We chose not to let the guy who drove us into the ditch keep driving."
Your friend doesn't know how to count :/
Brilliant
Sounds like cooler Trump
More like 150% inflation last year. Good luck to Argentina but they have a really DEEP hole they need to dig themselves out of.
Twenty years? Really?
Except that wasn’t the only choice.
Economists often ignore the devastating effect of Coldplayism. Well done Patrick.
Patrick Boyle's childhood trauma of Coldplay is real. I don't think he was joking :)
I had to scroll back and listen to that again. 😮
That wasn't real Coldplayism. Coldplayism 2.0 is great and will save and unite the world as soon as you volentarily submit to it, whether you want to or not.
Coldpplayism is a great idea in theory, but not in practice.
@@veerkarWhy wouldn't it be? Whenever I hear those fa****, I can even hear the trees crying and begging them to Stop.
Is nobody gonna mention the irony of an Argentinian leader worshipping Margaret Thatcher?
Time to send the Vulcans over again
It's funny, but at the same time it's a good sign of being willing to think outside the box and let go of old bullshit, and just do what will will help the country now, rather than obsess about a war from 40 years ago.
Not surprising. All anti-big-government movements worship Thatcher. She's the OG.
Is anybody going to mention the photograph of "Margaret Thatcher?"
@@suffern63I literally laughed out loud when I saw "Thatcher"
My heart goes out to the Argentinian people. Nobody deserves to suffer Coldplay.
As an argentinian i can say this is video is accuarate, i would only point out that the reason most of the country voted for dolarizarion is becouse this is not the first time we are about to have a hiperinflation, is the 4th tome in a last 50/60 year (my father literally lived this exact inflation crisis 4 times already), we are tired of the politicians putting us in this situtation, so we want to take the printing machine away from them
I have seen the 2001 crisis live in the streets of Buenos Aires. That was all a result of the hard currency peg installed by Menem/Cavallo, combined with joining Mercosur and a weak Brazilian Real. Doing that again would cause another downward spiral for the next 50 years. Argentina needs to regulate imports/exports, only like that it can establish an own stable currency. But it needs economic experts with a national mindset, not corrupt political actors paid by other countries. Maybe a two currency system could be a solution (one for regulated international trade, and another one for internal trade. However: there are easier cases than Argentina).
@@tobias5805 yes, also combined with having fiscal déficit and borrowing money until no one wanted to borrow us anymore, and because of that (instead of stop the déficit and make the state smaller) they start to print again leading to inflation and to the destruction of the peso.. if you are into crypto, is very similar to what happened to LUNA and TERRA
Right on! As baby-boomer Americans used to say.
I hope he does as he promised. Trump also promised change and addressing the national debt and deficit, and he only contributed to make it worse. The problem with populists is that they love to tell you what you want to hear, but it doesn’t mean that can or will follow through.
And sadly, most populists end up becoming autocrats and even dictators.
As a 30 year old millennial I'm tired of having bad quality of life since I remember, bad quality jobs, lack of possibilities to grow no matter how much you effort or study, inexistent infrastructure for many stuff (we live 50 years in the past) everything is a constant fight with anything 😢 let's hope a change from now
I live in Chile and we can always tell the state of the Argentine economy by the number of Argentine vehicle registrations we see in our beach resorts. The last few years there have been very few.
How come Argentines go to Chilean beach resorts? Don’t they have their own?
if you live in the western side of argentina. chiles beaches are by far closest
@@mikaelbohman6694 5hrs drive vs 20... (I'm from San Juan, next to Chile)
@@panchoadrenalina9141 dont they have to go through the mountain?
You can go _around_ mountains these days!
I feel like Argentine voters can be summed up by an old Russian joke:
Russian optimist: "Things cannot possibly get any worse."
Russian pessimist: "Sure they can!"
There is no floor in hell and no ceiling on heaven
Yeah, maybe, but its the choice between guaranteed destruction and a glimer of hope. If you look at voting charts, its usually the wealthier states where Massa (the peronist guy) won. Just think about that, im not going to spoil the answer for you.
I've always heard that as the definition of conservatism, ironically. Funny how conservatism has morphed into cryptofascism at best, straight up fascism in all likelyhood.
As a Russian, I approve this message.
🇷🇺❤️
@@randomphoenix20 much of Argentina's current debt problem comes not from the Peronists but from the center right / neoliberal Macri government that got huge IMF loans to do domestic tax cuts
When I went to Argentina for vacation for 2mo, I paid everything in $. I didn’t realize they had another currency. I guess the house rental & other large purchases were wire/ bank card & smaller stuff was ApplPay so I didn’t really notice. But I used cash dollars in the shops & they took them normally. Granted this is in urban areas. But my point is that if a consumer can already live with dollars in Argentina for a few months, & all intl purchases are marked to dollars anyway, they’re close to being dollarized already
As an Argentinean, pro tip, if you had exchanged your dollars to pesos at the right rate then used those pesos for your purchases you might have made your money worth twice as much. Yes, foreigners can use dollars, but people who know of our exchange shenanigans will charge them in usd then exchange that money for twice as much.
Jeesh..Im an argentinian and I have to say that Patrick is damn right on point here. Increadible reaserch and 30min summary. I applaud you, sir. Well said. Well done. !
"Coldplay - when they visit the country to torment the locals with songs like Yellow - which doesn't actually mean anything. Haven't the people of Argentina suffered enough?" 😂😂😂
Not only I was laughing so hard, you are also completely right.
@@redfescue5935 There’s a reason why she’s an Ex wife. Good call my friend.
I love the consistent shade thrown at Coldplay by Patrick, it makes my day.
I don't get the hate for Coldplay. They're not that bad.
I showed my partner a photo of him and she asked "when did Liam Gallagher get into South American politics?" 😂
@@therambler3713one of my favorite bands they just have dumb fucking lyrics 😂
As an Argentinean, I consider that everything above 1000 dollars it's already dollarized. The biggest peso banknote is worth 1 dollar.
Does it matter if everyone gets paid in paso everything should be mostly affordable
@@ytredvbwhat?????????
@@ytredvb when inflation is as high as it is in Argentina, the workers salaries can never match the rising prices. So nothing is affordable.
@@ytredvbw h a t
@@ytredvb Except all the merchants supply those goods MUST use dollars. A lot of countries have hidden dollarization in this fashion
Considering economic shock therapy in Russia in the nineties, my heart goes out to the people of Argentina, who have an extremely difficult road ahead
Having been born in Russia the year the financial crisis happened, 1998, I sure hope Argentinians do something about Milei before he has time to solidify his power. It could be very defficult to throw him out once he does
That was totally different circumstances where the problem was the depression caused the government to go defunct, not the other way around
@@samsonsoturian6013 not exactly. It was a compounding effect of incompetent governance and the country being in shock after introducing privatization
Russia didn’t really have a good shock. And its people weren’t ready for the liberalization.
@@tite93 more like, the shock of losing half of the population, half of the ecnomy and tax income overnight, and not being able to cope with that with a lame centrally planned economic model.
Merci M. Boyle. I enjoyed this as usual, you are clear and explain the financial intracacies so well. If he doesn’t get organised labour on board he’s heading for five years of chaos worse than now. It appears that the Argentinian economy is almost 50% US$ already. At the rugby world cup there were thousands of Argentinian fans, they didn’t buy tickets or pay for travel in Argentinian Pesos did they? The currency board looks like a workable solution, but would the austerity to make it work not cause so many protests that the army takes over? The song should be ”Please cry for me Argentina”....
He literally named his dog Milton Friedman 😂
One of them, the other ones are called Rothbard, Robert and Lucas.
And I must add that all of them are clones of his original one called Conan( as in Conan the Barbarian).
He also claims that Conan still speaks to him in dreams.
fitting
Nah, Just milton.
@@WaryofExtremes I've watched him,Thomas Sowell, Walter Williams. Sowell is my favorite
Based and king like
I'd elect to check out radical change if the "same ol', same ol'" was giving me almost 150% inflation.
Problem is that radical is not pushing ideas that will help with that, it'll just make the poor even harder to live while the wealthy get even wealthier.
That's how populists get ya. One guy says they have a solution, gets elected and fucks everything up. Is there any historical counterpoints?
@@smokelord2002source?
TFW the radical change they end up pushing is a decades ol right wing economic policy that has yet to have positive outcomes in the numerous countries it's been tried.
@@ehfoiwehfowjedioheoih4829Russia and Chile
As a British citizen I would like to apologise to the world for Coldplay.
Ilove the picture of the queen when u said Margaret Thatcher 😂😂😂
He’s already started backtracking on a lot of his changes. Including the health industry. I’m pretty sure people told him he can’t do that
I'm calling it: he is just gonna use the populism as a smoke screen to get super rich and then fuck of to a emirate or Croatia and drive lambos.
Normally politicians do exactly as they promised. Weird. =)
Yeah, Argentina’s political system is a lot more like the United States than it is Canada or the UK.
You can’t just have one guy making huge changes, by design.
@@benchoflemons398 uhh... in America the scope and capabilities of federal executive power has been growing for decades. Executive orders are basically the only consistent policy making tool in the fifteen year era of congressional gridlock. Foreign policy is almsot entirely authored by the president. The US president is increasingly an autocrat ruling by decree as the role of president as leader of their party grows more normative and potent.
@@benchoflemons398 Dont you mean the opposite? The Canadian and UK prime minister has far less power than the President of America.
"Former british prime Minister Margarete Thatcher " and proceeds to show the Queen 😂
I can't tell if it was on purpose lol
Yes, I was confused as Patrick does his homework, but usually his humour is blatant tongue in cheek, so I am also not sure - I just hope that Patrick has not outsourced the inclusion of images to an "assistant"@@matthewsilfer2010
Iron Maiden vs the greatest queen
It was certainly on purpose. This man applies comedy like socialist rebels apply guerrilla warfare.
@@steveolotu52no there is nothing funny about is. This person is just acting intelligent not actually intelligent.
hey Patrick excellent video on my home country I'm really amazed by the level of accuracy you portrayed the current situation. Keep up the good work. You have gained a long time fan haha!
One the highest quality products on CZcams. Bravo Patrick
Sliding a photo of the Queen in when you mentioned Thatcher…shade 😂
Fucc em...
Had to google it because I was certain it wasn’t thatcher…
5:23 fyi
@@Kane0123
It's too soon for jokes about our late Queen.
Excuse me while I have a good cry.
i'd love to see a video about the biggest close calls in finance. Considering how many of the videos on this channel are about times were there were major financial disasters and where attempts to keep the situation under control or to prevent liquidation failed. It would be fascinating to see where there might have been cases where the outlook seemed hopeless for a company or bank but through clever management and/or outside assistance was able to avoid disaster and go on to be successful.
Maybe Italy in 2012
Or people originally considered scam artists who created things that have benefited incredibly, like Charles Tyson Yerkes and his Underground Electric Railways of London.
@@JovanNoviSad As an Italian myself it's either you don't have an idea of what you are talking about or I am wrong.
Italy was on the edge in 2012 but nothing really clever has been made, or at least what was done has been undone in the following years (pensions for example)
September 2019 The Repo Fiasco
2008 US auto industry bailout. 2020-2021 US airline bailout, etc. Capital almost always gets bailed out and never adheres to its original values and fundamentals
As always, thank you for another informative, well-researched, and balanced video essay on an emergent global issue.
Yeah, the exact same stale bureaucracy-approved analysis of MSNBC and CC regurgitated by Patrick anytime someone outside the establishment gets elected
Good Video. Just a small addendum in regards to video quality:
I had to turn up the volume a bit while you were talking and then had to hastily drop the volume in the video about milei singing, because it was noticeably louder.
Would be an easy fix for future videos. Good volume managment increases perceived video quality by a lot.
Thanks for the video as always.
(about Coldplay's song 'Yellow')..."Haven't they suffered enough?"😂😂
Now I have to go and listen to it.
That Coldplay joke with no change in cadence or tone of voice was great.
Thank you for the quick, still profound, analysis.
Hi Patrick, Thanks so much for this excellent video. You really did a great job of explaining the position Milei and Argentina are in, and how things got to where they are now. I do hope you will continue commenting on it as events unfold. It is a truly fascinating situation.
I must congratulate Mr. Boyle for such a well-made video. Outside of specialized sources, mainstream coverage on Argentina in NA/Europe, and even Latin America, usually falls on the praise/revulsion of Milei's character (not without cause) along ideological lines, while downplaying the unsustainable, and evidently unsuccessful, nature of Argentina's brand of macro-economic populism.
One of the key aspects in the whole mess is just how difficult it is to enact reform in a country where the political system has set very perverse incentives to keeps repeating the same mistakes. Simply because even though citizen's pressure on the whole system to change economic outlook might look overwhelming, the necessary steps to fix up fiscal imbalances (cutting on subsidies and rolling back distortionary controls) are at the margin politically sensible with a wide array of interest groups from which politicians draw support.
Take dollarization for example, even though I have several doubts on its feasibility for Argentina, I must sympathise with some of Emilio Ocampo's (Argentinian economist that co-wrote what becase Milei's plan during the campaign) reasoning for it: Argentina's can't solve its inflation problem like Peru or Brazil because its political system makes nigh impossible for an incoming government to start enacting necessary fiscal reforms, get immediate positive results in the two year window before the midterms, and keep them from being stopped at the halfway point and then rolled back by another peronist administration. So they might as well take a drastic measure on inflation and see how to solve the rest from there.
How Milei's administration will navigate through those restrictions remains to be seen. His mandate might seem strong, but it will require a lot of political finesse to roll back decades of entrenched economic distortions and keeping enough political capital to see them through.
The thing is: all of those things are known. So what the hell? You see people outright looking for itself and setting up a political blockade of sorts, a bureaucratic shield of bullshit that keeps them in power so: when is the people going to say 'enough''? And they know it, and we know it, and everybody knows this, why is it still being enforced?
To keep a job that pays less every single time? Favors? Influence peddling?
Change is one decision away really
The issue is examplained by Patrick anglophones dont do research on Argentina, so when you read english sources they are absurd. As a native Spanish speaker, it makes no sense. It sounds like North Korean media talking about America. He can really only do so much without knowing Spanish. In the Spanish language, there is plenty of academic literature on Milei's policy, for example his papers and books given that he is an economics professor. There is also a lot of literature regarding argentinian economics. You can see that Patrick kept confusing Mauricio Macri whom he called Ma-cry, and Javier Milei in the last 5 minutes. Also, as argentinians are already comenting here: the country is de facto dollarized. An argentina sell a shit load of commodities. So if you actually dolarized, and stabilize the currency situation, you go ham on the exports and bring those dollars asap. You can't compare Greece whose major exports are chinese and olives on a primium, vs argentina who exports soy, meat, lithium etc. Argentina has a way to get dollars really quickly.
Loco, tengo anos siguiendo a Milei en redes sociales y cual viene a ser mi sorpresa cuando vengo a ver al gil postulado para la presidencia!
Es de locos y es genial!
@@jjj8317
This is exactly the problem faced by India's government. Too many vested interests have a stake in perpetuating existing corrupt systems. Its why the farm laws were so vehemently opposed and its also why corruption will be very difficult to root out.
We need an Indian Javier Milei. Probably will have to wait around 20 more years for a Libertarian PM in India.
My main takeaway from all of this is that I have "Yellow" in my head now, and for that I can never forgive Patrick.
And you shouldn't.
Glad to see another shout out to Ground News! I found it a while ago, and tell tons of people I meet how much I like it.
As a Spanish speaker whos been following Milei for years (aunque mi español no es el mejor) he isnt proposing dolarisation but a free market in currencies. But the dollar has caught on for 2 reasons, the first being western media, and the second that many people in Argentina (and Latin America) already use the dollar. However Milei have done many livestreams on Instagram talking about the benefits of CRYPTO which he seems to be very enthusiastic about.
And to add, he is passionate, he is very "controversial" but hes also very personal. The type of guy who can get on with and have fun with anyone. Its one of the reasons for why hes done so well. And his meetings with those Zurdos (leftists) which hes expressed a few unkind words for have seemed to have gone very well and been friendly. So dont be surprised if his political dealings go better than most people think
Crypto huh? Well, I guess if it worked for El Salvador.
In practice, many purchases in Argentina are already made in dollars, such as home purchases, because the peso loses value so fast, day by day, even hour by hour. Argentina is already partially dollarized and many citizens hold dollars as a hedge. Milei's 'antics' are a form of political theater to get attention. I wish him & Argentina well, knowing the immensity of the task awaiting him, and the entrenched interests that will be fighting his reforms.
There are several countries using USD after their own currencies collapsed. Argentina isn't doing anything that hasn't been done before.
Didn't you write the exact same thing on another channel?
@@Ichioku wouldn't be surprised. Neo liberal bot lol
Iraq is the same. Except Chinese cars sold by MG can be bought in local currency. MG is good enough for British people in London, so the fact you can get them in dinars is pretty nice.
@@thomas316 Though the other countries are smaller than Argentina.
There is a successful case of currency board very close to Argentina. Brazil solve it's hyperinflation problem in the 90's by creating a temporary currency called URV which was between other things a currency board 1 to 1 with the US dollar and a transition to the new currency the Real. Brazil later released its currency from the USD equivalence. The whole thing was named Plano Real.
URV's weren't pegged to the dollar, they were virtual unit's of account that didn't actually exist
@@grimaffiliations3671It was actually pegged to dollar, you can see in the official law text, Brazilian law number 9069 Art 3º § 2º.
@@clarkoncomputers how do you peg a fake currency? was it just set to match the dollar or actually pegged?
Argentina did peg to USD for a while but ran out of USD to defend the peg. Basically Argentinian governments have used seigniorage instead of taxation.
@@thomas316 pegging to the dollar is a big mistake, it's why argentina is in so much trouble now
That Odysseus line was hilarious. Another banger of a video. Since we have had so many "not real communism" attempts in the past that have been disastrous I am somewhat keen to see what "not real ANCAP" will bring.
Probably a lot of corruption and wealth inequality.
His credentials as an ANCAP will rest entirely on his success or failure, as usual. As of the time of this comment he seems to be going hard authoritarian in order to crack down on opposition. So, he's on the right trajectory.
The Coldplay bit had me in stitches! LOL
thanks for this super clear analysis., from Argentina.
Argentinian here, after 16/20 years of the same party in power, people voted for the most non conventional politician with the hopes that this time they will try to fix the problems . really hope he can do it, its a rich country in natural resources theres no reason to suffer hyperinflation. past administration were really terrible
Good for you all. People shouldn't begrudge you for trying something new when your government has consistently failed to deliver for its people. If commentators didn't want a radical in office, then the previous administrations should have done better.
Having natural resources is great, but the extraction and further exploitation of those resources is the tough bit, and for that Argentina needs the $$$ (or investors which take a substantial amount of profit), unfortunately not every country can have these absurd debts which are reserved for the top economies...
Im sorry your options are Peronists and ANCAPs.
Yeah, good luck with that!
Ah yes voting for the AnCap cosplayer is "the choice" to get out of a tough situation.
I am sure it will go over well and the Argentinian voters are very smart.
“Javier Macri” was my favorite character in today’s “story” 😂
Awesome video, thank you 🙏
By the end I was wondering who the hell is Javier McCry? Did I miss something?
Yeah well. Patrick misspoke. He doesn't mis-think though and is a great source of information, so let's cut him some slack. It's clear he meant Milei
@@timmostrohm7710 absolutely, I acknowledged it’s an awesome video in my original comment. It’s only a funny little incident, no one is holding it against Mr. Boyle 😊 cheers
@@timmostrohm7710Maybe Patrick didn't even mispeak. Maybe he's predicting the future of Milei's government, which appears to be attached to Macri.
@@mauriciobuffon interesting. Freudian 👍
I really liked the analysis done in this video. Excellent reporting!!!
GOVERNMENT SPENDING =/= ECONOMIC HEALTH
(It's the opposite.) Milei's plan is brilliant. Whether it's politically doable is another matter. Statist politicians don't WANT to improve things. They benefit from the status quo.
Back in 92 Estonia introduced currency board system where Estonian kroon was begged to DM with fixed rate of 1:8. At that time there was no substantial foreign currency reserves in central bank, export was turned to former USSR market and majority of foreign currency came from selling the wood and metals of USSR, so the starting point was relatively bleak .
Keeping system simple is one of key issues and in at that time in Estonia the government was relatively not-connected to society ( in the means that there would be some powerful and influential society group who can meddle the currency board system). Trade Unions are major player in Argentina ( unlike in Estonia where here is no such political institutions). In the way Argentinians have two ways to improve their living- either through labor movement or through elections.
Keeping the dual optionality alive is one of major mistakes society does- some people try to sneak some additional subsidies and some people try to get rich on their own. It this drift continues in society there can be only one simple option, i.e. no CB system but very simple solution ( it looks rather realistic- speaking of Argentinian terms). I.e. keep it simple and give only one option to society ( and to politicians as well).
Greed and corruption prevents any true system from existing. Ussr, usa, socialism, communism, democracy, constitutional republics, etc etc are ALL corrupted by human greed none truely exist. Untill we enforce against this inherent flaw in human nature history will repeat itself and corruption will rule all
Interesting viewpoint!
Estonia is a very bad example to follow. Estonians are a calm and rational people, who have been "trained" throughout their history to accept hardship as the norm. You can't expect to replicate their model with a hot headed population like in Argentina.
@@Fankas2000 And Argentinians werent by aggressive dictatorship? Human race is very adaptable
@@aleksanderk99 Nowhere near the same. Estonian's have been under foreign rule for almost 8 centuries.
It seems to me those export tariffs are the biggest millstone around Argentina's neck. Scrapping them or reducing them drastically is definitely needed, since it would take far too long to hash out free trade agreements if it's possible at all. Argentina needs to export as much lithium, copper and grass-fed beef as it can, all products that fetch good prices on world markets so could still generate plenty of taxable profits. With that initial boost it can then focus on investing in long term sustainable growth.
Agreed
Yeah that seems reasonable.
Lithium and copper mines will be sold to the US or Canada and Argentina will get peanuts
@@verw719 Argentina can impose severance taxes on the extracted minerals and corporate taxes on profits. Since both minerals are in high demand I doubt they'd have to do much sweetening to attract mining companies.
@@Croz89 Clearly you have no idea what kind of coercion the US racketeers exert on countries on a regular basis. Besides Argentina is in no position to impose anything.
I hope that Milei helps Argentina. They are in bad shape and they need someone who can bring down spending and stabilize the economy.
"... Former British PM Margaret Thatcher..." *picture of Queen Elizabeth* 😂
I don't know if that was an editing mistake or a joke about Thatcher, but either way, it was funny.
Do you think the Argentinian IRS will believe me when I report that I pre-paid my Coldplay dollar tax all throughout 90’s? 🤣
Hey Patrick, Argentinian here! 🙋🏻♀️
I first want to start by saying that i was very hesitant to watch this video since I've seen other youtubers talk about this topic but in a very superficial way. But this was really a fresh breath of air, specifically going into the economic part.
I'd like to add some info that I think it's relevant:
While it's true that Milei, even though he won by a 55%, has little to no people from his party in the congress, there is a chance that his laws will have some track.
Before the final election, he made an alliance with the PRO (essentially a coalition of center right political parties), specifically teaming up with Patricia Bullrich and Mauricio Macri. This meant that some of the ministries, specifically the Economic one, will be managed by the losing party (Bullrich only managed to get a measly 23%).
A you mentioned, he chose Caputo even though he very HEAVILY criticized him in 2018 calling him irresponsible but just a couple of weeks ago said he was the best one out there when it came to finances. Also, Capito has said that they will not close the Bank.
All of this has made people start to speculate that dollarization, if it ever would be to occur, would not be in the first 2 years as Milei had declared.
What I personally find interesting is that he doesn't believe in climate chance and has, at the moment, no desire to implement policies regarding it. Very worrying since we relay heavily in agriculture and we have already been suffering a lot of droughts that have impacted the already poor trading.
Regarding the division, while i understand that this is a video solely focused on thee economic aspect of it, I think its worth mentioning that a lot of division is because of Milei's violence and his political party outright homophobic claims in a country that was the first one of Latin america to legalize gay marriage. It also does not help that they are choosing to eliminate the Ministry of women and gender diversity in a country with high femicides rates.
Oh, and the whole saying that he won't be making any new deals with Brasil or China. The two biggest countries we trade with, and China in particularly being the one that has been """""lending""""" us yuans in order to have some type of currency reserve with value.
Overall, this is a very interesting turn in Argentinan history. Let's hope everything works out. 🇦🇷
I love your show man very concise information to the point with a little bit of humor mixed in good job keep up❤
I liken Milei to Fujimori
All Milei has to do now is do a coup to take control of Congress and implement his economic shock therapy, like what Fujimori did (the then-called “soft coup” and“Fujishock” respectively). GDP rose up after Fujimori applied for IMF loans, converting the many state-owned public services into privatized and some foreign-owned corps, while those that majorly voted Fujimori into office (where Fujimori stated he wasn’t going to privatize state services in his campaign) felt little-to-no socio-economic progression during Fujimori’s entire presidency.
It was only after Fujimori fled office where his measures became efficient for the middle and lower class, but his measures only receive credit for existing in a time when a resource boom happened, and not credit for improving the socioeconomic status of the citizens on its own right.
Starting at 32:00 you started addressing Milei as "Macri", the former president (2015-2019)
I knew I wasn't the only one to spot this :)
May’ve been on purpose, given that Milei’s party has no power, Milei only got the classically conservative vote thanks to Macri’s endorsement, and Macri and his folks are already infiltrating Milei’s administration. In short, Macri will be calling the shots, unless he’s too busy with Boca.
Well their cabinets are becoming identical so the joke on the streets is that this is Macri's second term
Yes, I only realized that after releasing the video. Unfortunately, CZcams don't make it possible to add a correction to the video.
@PBoyle you aren't that far off. In fact I thought you were making that joke
You can't just listen to Patrick's videos in the background. The picture of "Margaret Thatcher" killed me 😂
5:22 Nice picture of Margaret! 😂😂😂😂
I love his fiery impassioned speeches.
Salutations, Argentinian here!
I wanted to comment on the choice between the Board or Dollarization.
It was mentioned taht as long as there is hope for the country/currency, it is better to go for the Board, but the thing is precisely that there is not hope for our currency anymore.
For a LOOOONG time, the Argentinian Peso has been the currency of the politicians, just a tool they use to take money from the people, and that they print as much as they want without caring about the inflation they generate, since they profit from it.
And we all know that even if Milei managed to fix things, in the next presidency it's highly likely that the Peronism, or worse, the sub-race "Kirchnerism" would win again, and as it's tradition down here, completely break everything again for their own benefit.
We simply know that it's going to happen.
Simple numbers and an outsider perspective can't begin to describe the levels of populism and brainwashing that they have made down here. Right from primary school you are given books about how great was Peron, which completely skips the atrocious things he did.
Because of all that brianwashing, eventually they'll get back to power after Milei doesn't make Argentina the greatest country in the world in 4 years.
So, instead of going for a Board that will get dismantled in the next presidency, we would rather take an action that CAN'T be undone, both for good and for bad.
And that applies to other things too, liek taking down the Central Bank.
There is no remainig hope in any of them.
We NEED the Chainsaw, we NEED those things to be cut off, because they WILL be abused again after Milei finishes his 4 years.
En ese caso tendrian que haber puesto a alguien de LLA en economía jajaj.
Además no entiendo por qué hablas de brainwashing si Milei gano con un 55%...vos pensas que tan malo va a ser su gobierno que de acá a 4 años se le va a dar vuelta la torta?
@@lucamp1 Que hayamos tenido que llegar al borde de una hyperinflación para que la gente decida votar diferente habla suficiente de cuanto han manipulado a la gente.
Y aún así hay mucha gente que sigue creyendo en el peronismo/kirchnerismo.
Y sobre que la presidencia vuelva al peronismo/kircherismo en 4 años, en eso ni siquiera importa que tan bien o mal el tipo lo haga.
Es simplemente inevitable que acabará sucediendo. Es como tirar una manzana en el aire y saber que eventualmente caerá.
@@reikolupus136 Si ese fuera el caso Menem no hubiera ganado su segunda presidencia, digo, si la lógica es que el peronismo vuelve.
Aparte no tiene sentido lo que estas diciendo. Milei gana por un 55% y eso significa que la población tiene la cabeza "lavada" por el peronismo? (lease, cuando te dan a leer un libro que no te gusta).
Aparte hace los números, los votes de Bullrich fueron a Milei. Esa gente también tiene la cabeza lavada? O son solo los peronistas los que tienen la cabeza lavada por el hecho de ser peronistas? 🤔
@@reikolupus136votar diferente???? son las mismas caras del macrismo. Es macrismo puro y duro.
@@reikolupus136 Gracias por sus percepciones.
To the "He can't make it worse" crowd, one question: is there still any critical infrastructure not yet sold to foreign investors?
Yes
Yes, YPF, Aerolineas Argentinas, a bunch of media outlets, lithium, etc. The Kirchner goverments nationalized a bunch of stuff and they did it overpaying every time.
Livers and kidneys.
Eh, the previous govt was selling everything to China anyway...
Ok, I'm sold on this guy.
the trolling Irishman posting a picture of the queen while talking about Margaret Thatcher... the legend.
Thank you Patrick for your deep into the weeds presentation on Argentina. You are vital for people like me to help understand economics. Keep it up!!!
Thanks for this one, I consider myself an informed layman when it comes to economics and finance and you've intrigued me as to the more nuanced issues around dollarization. You continue to be the best site for hip hop about financial systems.
Well spoken, Patrick. Thanks for your efforts
I never had "Argentina becomes a capitalist slave camp for JP Morgan" on my Bingo board but damn, here we go i guess.
Hi Patrick! Great video as always - the cameo from Queen Elizabeth made me laugh haha 😂 Noticed a lot of comments focusing on the little hiccups here and there, but the video was still easy enough to follow along with, and I think (especially considering how much work you put into these longform essays!) we are all allowed to make mistakes sometimes. I hope you haven't taken any of the comments to heart, and look forward to watching your next vid!
He mentions that an Argentinian navy ship was seized, which is true, but this was deemed illegal under international law.
Lived in Buenos Aires at the time of the 2000 collapse. Lovely people. It is essentially an Italian culture, with a lot of the immigration having come from the Naples area (ie not the industrial north). Think of the many italian economic crisis (before the Euro) and then imagine how bad they might have been without the north. That is Argentina.
I was in Argentina a few years ago and yes there is many of Italian but then many Spanish moved there and they started f*****g and that’s why they have in my legendary opinion the most spectacular women on the planet.
I love Buenos Aires. It's a beautiful country (Argentina) and I hope this experiment works, even though the odds don't seem high, maybe they need that electroshock.
The majority is not from the South, a large quantity (probably a majority) is from the North and more specifically North East. One of the most productive and least corrupt areas of Italy. The problem isn't the ethnicity of the people. The problem is the institutions, inequality and unstable politics that has brought Argentina to what they are today.
But Italians emigrating to the US were predominantly from the South of Italy as well, and generally did very well in the US.
@@andybaubau5961na man, doing that is what sinks a country to the absolute depts of inflation and economic problems. When you get used to a broken system and manage to live quite well in it. Living in a working system is basically an infinite money glitch if you are persistent and dedicated.
Great video, I learn so much watching you’re videos! ❤
I love how calm Patrick is explaining this vs how insane Milei is in the clips Patrick is showing.
Geez Patrick has some strong feelings about Coldplay
23:30
I loved the roast ahah
Yeah, it’s not his first time mentioning cold play 🤣
Coldplay and Nickleback 😂
He's more of a rap guy.
Talks about Margaret Thatcher, shows picture of Queen Elizabeth!
Patrick, you naughty boy xD
32:18 I guess to talk about Argentina was tough enough for Patric Boyle... He kept calling Milei as Mycry... Poor Patrick Boyle. But his analysis in general is very complete and admirable. Kudos!!
alright, thumbs up, subscribed, and now time to listen to it on spotify and give it like!
I love Mr. Boyle's anaylses, I always learn something.
I learned that Coldplay dollars are a real thing and he didn't make it up.
"Hopefully we can be optimistic for the future... " is a hilariously sanguine way to close this video, intended or not lol 😂
Naming Margaret Thatcher and showing a pic of the Queen of England at 5:25 is hilarious.
Quite the tease @5'26: you include an image of her late Majesty Queen Elizabeth II as an illustration when discussing former British PM (and grocer's daughter) Baroness Thatcher. It may be a case of Homer nodding, but I'm hoping it's a deliberate attempt to see of anyone is paying any attention...
I absolutely adore the subtle shade you throw, in passing, at some of those you mention!
Not a Coldplay fan, clearly...
The shade thrown at Coldplay was tough but fair. I invested in Coldplay around the time they released A Rush of Blood to the Head. It was a bull market then, but it's been diminishing returns ever since.
Chris Martin is a fantastic songwriter. Some of his weird guitar tunings and harmonies on the first two albums are glorious, as are his lyrics and singing obvi. I think he was just a victim of his own success, and becoming Mr. Paltrow.
That Patrick Boyle deadpan humour is elite 😂
Every show getting better !!! Love it
THANKS FOR THE INFO PATRICK!!👍👍👍👍
Small mistake: @32:12 you meant to say 'Milei', not 'Macri'. Loved the video, interesting stuff!!
It is difficult if not impossible to imagine how Milei could possibly make a larger mess than his predecessors even if he wanted to. It greatly helps being popular enough to get elected in the first place as not everyone is going to benefit and most of these people will be the richest and most powerful people in Argentina. Therefore if he does start being successful then he would be well advised to pay full attention to his own personal safety.
Mauricio Macri is pretty much his "friend" at this point and he is the richest person in the country. He pretty much already sided with the rich and the poor who voted him, well, bad luck.
You lack imagination my friend 😂
U even heard of slave colonies 😂😂😂
They said the same about Hitler.
Bolsonaro and Trump have proven it can always get much worse.
Argentina is a shitshow, but it still somewhat functions. I wouldn’t bet it will be much much worse after Milei has implemented his snake oil “policies”.
I'm calling Macri "McCry" from now on just because that's how Patrick pronounces it
Yellow was a reference to Chris’s Mom, who had cancer and was yellow. 😊
Hey Patrick, Excellent video. Please, check that at the end you mixed the names between Macri and Milei. You named the recent elected president as Macri, which was in office some years ago. On a side note, there is no quant approach, AI, SDE or algo that can predict Argentina ...
Oh I was hoping you talk about this. Didn't actually think you'll do it I love you Patrick Boyle.
I was working at PWC Ecuador when the economy dolarized back in 1998 and it was brutal to say the less... The ex president, now teacher at Harvard Jamil Mahuad announced banks blackouts, meaning the didn't open its doors for its customers, the dollar jumped from 9 thousands ecuadorian Sucres to 25 thousands in a matter of days.... Once it got that high he announced the dolarization... Hundreds of people lost their savings... Many suicides.... It did benefited the economy in the long run, but in its execution Mahuad destroyed savind and beneefited bankers (who funded his presidential campaign) ...
Ok let’s bitcoinize it then
A currency peg was tried in Argentina as recently as about 2-3 decades ago and the peg broke, this always happens when the currency board plays dishonest games with the amount of dollars backing the currency which is what ALWAYS happens, so just go pure dollar everywhere.
Fantastic overview. Argentina is a beautiful country that should be doing better. I wish this man good luck
Patrick's pronunciation throughout this video is WILD and I LOVE it.
By the end of the video, Patrick just gave up on naming. He called Milei "Macri and even said "Javier Macri" hahaha
"McCry" xd
The fact that I can fully understand how attractive his persona is scares me.
It would be awesome in a movie, but real life is too much.
The Status Quo was killing Argentina, the previous governments caused this.
Very annoyed when people endlessly moan about regulations but never clarify what regulations they want changed. Are they genuenly combating regulatory capture, or just destroying public protections to maximize profit? You can never tell becasue they just shit on "regulations" with zero clarification, acting as ideologues while decrying ideology.
In a lot of cases, regulations will actively create monopolies and/or increase government power. Open AI pushes regulating the AI sector so that the non big tech competition would not be able to comply and will die off (sadly for them, they can not regulate other big fish out of their pond). The same goes for immensely stupid copyright laws on music, where remixing or making a cover of the song is insanely difficult if you are not in the record label, or movie character copyrights, where Mickey Mouse will only become available as a character for public domain the next year (which is stupid, because all people involved in his creation are probably dead by now). The list of retarded laws that lobbyists were able to push through the government is very long.
The next type of laws you will see would be pushed to increase the power of some specific branch of the government. These involve, for example, those laws where "think of the children" or "war against terrorism" are used as arguments for you to believe that now CIA (or maybe a big tech company) needs to monitor all the photos on your phone or that end-to-end encryption should be banned, because someone somewhere uses Signal to do some criminal shit (although 99.9 percent of its users are just some privacy conscious tech nerds).
There are too many regulations, which need to be abolished. The government got too big in most countries.
Clarification is there. It is usually that we are all stuck in echo chambers, unable to hear any even slightly different viewpoints.
Part of me wants to be a dictator that abolished all government and laws so corporations can rule everything. Ancap wet dream
@@ikegru4346 It's funny you mention IP laws, I've had too many conversations with self described "libertarians" go to bat for them when I say that allowing more work into the public domain and allowing work to enter the public domain sooner would be good for a free society. A lot of "libertarians" are more concerned with property than with liberty, and will not recognize when those two aims are at odds.
To be frank I don't care how big the government is. I want the government to serve the public interest and promote general welfare, ideally as efficiently as possible, but I don't care how "large" the government is so long as these goals are pursued to the best of our ability. I think this is one of those unquestioned ideological positions of our age, the assumption that the endless dismantling of the people's government is inherently good. People fought and died for our right to govern ourselves and for us to have our own government, then claim that the only patriotic way you can exercise that power is the dismantling of our government for which so many people died to secure and defend. It's our government, it exists to serve our interests, and leveraging our power to promote the general welfare of the people is the appropriate and patriotic application of this power so many fought and died for.
Ok. So say, you gave s regulation that sats you need to lsintain pipelines and have them at a certain standard so that thry don’t spill shit everywhere. Bad?
Or a regulation that says you can’t lend money at a 300% interest rate so that desperate people don’t end up in jail for their debts. Bad?
Or that you can’t advertise cigarettes aggressively and / or sell them to children. Bad?
Or that you can’t sell cars that are going to blow up from time to time because they sre made sloppily. Bad?
Or that banks can’t absolutely fuck their clients by taking insane risks with deposited money. Bad?
Should i continue?
I think in a way Argentina's problem is not that different from everyelse
while everyone knows the status quo is not working the moment anyone tries to change it they realise they have so many interest entrenched in the status quo so the more you try to change they more you stay the same
Dear Patrick and all my Argentinian friends. First of all thanks for this in-depth analysis of Argentina's status quo. I have to make my contribution here as well. Because first of all: Argentina's economy is not at all comparable to other economies. Their abundancy of natural resources makes it very difficult to compare, and finally led to the pork cycle of the economy. But let me be more specific:
First we need to make some propositions:
1. To understand Argentina today, we need to look back into it's past. This is first of all the continous change between democracy and military governments, and secondly a closer look to what happened before the Kirchner era. Remember when Menem/Cavallo together installed the free convertibility between Argentine Peso and US-Dollar in the 1990s? This was the base fundament why Argentina still until very recently was held at it's balls by US investor Singer. They introduced the convertibility as a measure against inflation, but it fired back greatly with an implosion of the economy (and currency) end of 2001. But what was the problem? In that era of the 90s some other Latin American economies had just devaluated their currency, like also did Brasil. Argentina did the contraire, they installed a Dollar peg to the peso, which just stand alone would already have coused trouble in this international environment, but combined with also entering into the Mercosur was the biggest step over the cliff. The Mercosur is a free trade association between countries, where also Brasil was part of. The result was, that Argentinians could by product from Brasil import tax free and at a price of approx. one third of the price in Argentina. This led to a full decline of the national economy. As if this was not enough: Once they installed the free convertibility between USD and Peso, they also changed all ATMs in a way that they hat to money slots, people were able to chose between getting out Dollar bills of Pesos. This gave the population the opportunity to conveniently take out all Dollars the National Bank possesed, and -just mentioning- the entire money base was only covered by only 30% with Dollar reserves. So once more than 30% of circulating money was converted to USD from the Cash Machines, around 20.12.2001, the National Bank had to declare bankrupcy. I have been living in Argentina in that time, and remember very well the waiting lines of 100 meters and more at any single ATM, lining up people hoping for a successful conversion to USD. As a remark: at least German Wikipedia is not very precise about this crisis, they assume that September 11th 2001 might have been contributed to the bankrupcy. I say no, because the confidence crisis, caused by heavy competition through Brazilian imports and therefore declining national Economy, was so far advanced that it was at least since May/June 2001 printed everyday in the newspapers, at what level the Dollar reserves where shrinked and how the interest spread was developing. So people independently of Sept 11th were hoping to get out their money, in September it was already over the point of no return. Actually a weakened Dollar as a result of Sept. 11th might have helped, but it was already too late.
--> my personal interpretation: I am not sure if Carlos Menem as responsible president was evil corrupt or just economically stupid. He had a good reputation and track record of beeing corrupt, so that would not be a surprise. But the action of hard Dollar peg AND entering Mercosur AND installing two money slots on all ATMs is just a little too much to assume innocence.
2. Not a single Latin American country was ever successful with right wing democratic governments. And: right/left pattern is different than in other countries.
Other, non Latin American readers of newspapers, tend to read "right wing" as they understand it from their home countries. But there is a difference. Right wing, conservative leaders, usually with previous university studies in the US, have never brought any benefit for the people. Thank you, Patrick, for mentioning that Milei is in the mind set of the Chicago Boys, which should be a HUGE alarm signal. American "consultants" from that thinking school were "helping" Chile, and as a result Chile today is the only country in the world, where water resources are private. Privatization itself in Argentina has NEVER led to any benefit, neither. In Mexico famous Carlos Slim with libanese roots temporarily became the worlds richest person, after successful privatization of Telmex where he only paid a fraction of the assumed real value. Nobody knows who received a nice commission for that. This list of corrupt behaviour of especially (Latin American!) right wing polititians, but not exclusively right wing, is important to understand. All comparisons to Donald Trump are difficult, but sometimes different than expected. Commercial press in the US seem not to like Donald Trump, same applies to current Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who does things differently than the corrupt conservative politicians before. Obviously the establishment doesn't like him, although he is a left wing politian, while in many western countries all left wing politicians are darlings of the press, whatever they do.
3. Consecuences of a future dollarization and international course
Argentina does not seem work well in a free international trade environment. A further privatization of national assets would follow the same downwards course as in the decades before. Free trade neither is a good idea for Argentina, see as a reference how the pork cycle works. A dollarization has grave disadvantages, as Argentina is fully dependent on foreign monetary politics and has no chance to grow or shrink the monetary base in cases needed (to slow down or to speed up economy). Since we can doubt that Argentina has sufficient money to provide the base, we can assume that initial prices would be extremely cheap in USD, so massive asset purchases from abroad would we a logical conclusion. Not at all to a benefit of the people, that won't be able to afford any assets anymore.
I have to say that listening this very well made documentary left me in shock - I hoped Argentina would have learned, but it seemed they did not. What they need is a national, not too libertarian, government, not fully closed to abroad, but neither open. They need their own currency and the opportunity to adjust import and internal taxes themselves, because only like that the the normal people will have the chance to built up own assets in the country. Obviously they wouldn't be able to spend big abroad, but with a dollarization neither. Let's see how it works, but while Trump produced quite good economic numbers in the US before Covid, Milei definitively won't do that with this program in Argentina. It's just impossible with that profile!
On point 3, about foreigners rushing in to buy cheaply priced assets in Argentina in the manner you describe: I believe those assets will be cheap for as long as there is no credible justice system to enforce property rights. The assets can be denominated and priced in gold or dollar or whatever, but if the next government can by policy or by law confiscate those assets without adequate compensation, then it doesn't matter: a land title that a foreigner acquires would still be valued at most at the amount of money the foreigner expects to make plus initial capital improvements on said land and profits, within the expected time he believes the current president will hold power.
For this same reason, no one wants to buy Argentinian bonds, even if they were originally issued and repayable in US dollar for more than 3 cents on the dollar. As soon as a new administration takes over, the new guy is just going to send the former guy to prison and renege on past agreements.
5:26 That's Queen Elizabeth, not Margaret Thatcher! Rotfl! 😂😂😂
5:26 when you said Thatcher but showed the Queen I spat out my coffe😅 caught me off guard.
However Milei does as Argentina's president, none can deny that he is the inevitable result of all the previously utter incompetent administrations. There is literally no way he can be any worse than the previous ones.
He’s a zionist. Argentina will be bought out by the chosen ones.
Pretty on, Macri, Kishner and Fernandez ruined everything
Whether or not he's worse will depend on who you are. Just as when the former USSR underwent "shock therapy", some people are going to make out like bandits with all the privatisations (Milei's friends, backers, and the already extremely wealthy will soon own everything through joint ventures with foreign investors), while many more are going to be unemployed as the public sector and privatised industries are "chain sawed". Russia took over a decade to recover, and now they are an oligarchic mafia state. Milei won't be in office by then, but he will have done his job, and he will be rewarded.
Very Informative!