Is 2024 Eerily Similar To The 2000 Dot-Com Bust?
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- čas přidán 9. 09. 2024
- The bond market triggered a rare signal that was also triggered in September 2000, just before the Dot-Com bear market started to accelerate to the downside. After a weaker than expected NFP Labor Report, the $VIX spiked over 40% during the session on August 2, 2024.
This is a very normal correction taking place according to a number of analysts. Particularly, because a number of the large cap/big tech companies have skyrocketed in the last few months. The party can't go on forever. Large caps may still drop another 5-6%. This makes for a buying opportunity. It won't be long before the big names start posting positive gains again..... Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
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It was quite challenging to understand the different trends on my own until i found out about Duguay. Trading made easy.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Michelle Stewart.
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families in United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
You trade with Michelle Stewart too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
well, we all know that market direction is unpredictable. It took me 4 years to understand that predicting the market based on charts is not reliable; you can never truly foresee what will happen. Without a mentor, those 4 years were tough. Now, I follow the market’s trends and keep my approach simple and disciplined. These days, I make an average of $35k per week, even though I rarely trade myself.
That's impressive! When you say you barely trade yourself,' what do you mean?
I enrolled myself in a 1-on-1 trading session. It's like copy trading, but with personalized guidance.
It's a secure and supportive way to improve your trading skills while earning, the best part is there's no upfront payment required
That sounds interesting!
Can I sign up too? How can I reach out to Dave for a session?
Outstanding analysis. The ccm model with 489 data points - amazing!! And presented here free- epic. Thank you! 😊❤
Always on point. When I feel and hear around me that we are near the end of a bull market, this channel clears everything up for me. I've been following this channel for years and Chris' analysis has always been the most valuable.
Chris I can’t thank you enough for your videos on a week like this, I was scared to watch this week’s video but after all the data the longer term picture is clear.
Thank you for keeping us calm in stormy markets.
Agreed!
This week was so violence but you could make so much money in short period of time and have so much potential for long term investment 🙏🏼
You give me hope when no one else does! Thank you! Your videos are very rational and thorough. Please keep them coming!
Hallelujah 🙌🏻!!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻. I was owing a loan of $49,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery, Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $11,000 and got my payout of $290,500 every month…God bless Mrs Susan Jane Christy ❤️
Hello!! how do you make such monthly, I’m a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down of myself 😭 because of low finance but I still believe God
Thanks to my co-worker (Carson ) who suggested Ms Susan Jane Christy
After I raised up to 525k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states🇺🇸🇺🇸 also paid for my son's surgery….Glory to God, shalom.
She's a licensed broker here in the states🇺🇸 and finance advisor.
Can I also do it??? My life is facing lots of challenges lately
this time is different lol but then again it's always the same old same old fed
yes , always afther the big drop go up but how is the drop now , and how long isand diep the drop
Semis looks like a hot knife through butter.
And the same old psychology. People don’t change.
Thanks Chris for asking such a thoughtful question and then insightfully address it after this past week. This is a brilliant piece of work.
Agreed!
Dead cat bounce coming soon but doubt we'll break July 16 high anytime soon.
@@mikes.2471 remember when the Dow dropped -875? That was the time to buy… lots of people on vacation are giving the market a rest… lower volumes increase volatility and the spreads between bid and ask… AI machines are easy to take money from.
Excellent work - very useful AVWAP charts and explanations. Thank you both Chris and Kathy!
The economic crisis and downturn are all the signs of 2008 market crash 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the US dollar or is it okay to move all emergency and savings to precious metals?
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
@@joshbarney114 I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you on things like investing, insurance, making sure retirement is well funded, going over tax benefits, ways to have a volatility buffer for investment risk would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Zooming back out to 20,000 feet after a week like this in the market is critical to maintaining the right balance of near and longer term analysis especially towards the goal of avoiding panic overreaction. This is one video I never miss. So many things happening simultaneously both good and bad at the moment during August - a month when several of the large players are on vacation in an election year. My gut tells me that this will end up being a garden variety pull-back, but as always, I will attempt to keep an open mind to a wide range of outcomes ;-).
Large players are NOT on vacation, and neither are algos. Large players have PLENTY of bench strength.
Glad I held a little cash back now while it was at the highs. Psychologically, I hate it when it dips and I have no money to throw in, even if it means I'm slightly worse off in the long run.
Well now everybody is talking like is going to crash, so of course it won’t. It’s just a big mental game.
I mean you have real slowing in the real economy (slowing labor market, excess inventories, lower consumer cash available to spend) and all time highs in the price of the markets.
So yeah.
I agree real crashes really only happen when no one sees it coming. Pullbacks are expected here though. Crash assumes something like Covid or 2008.
@@JimMcNuttyno. Crashes happen when prices to earnings growth get crazy high and consumers run out of cash to buy through the crash.
@@exnihilonihilfit8645 people have tons of cash still though
I don't know. My analysis says that this is an excellent time to load up on semiconductors. Not NVDA though.
Be cautious, market tends to decline after rate cuts. Check out why TLT is finally coming back alive after the big decline last year.
NVIDIA is now fair value. Tsm is undervalue 🙏🏼
Best analysis as always.
Three dangerous pieces in your video for anyone trying to avoid confirmation bias.
1) The bottom of 2023 is in diametric opposition to today. We were on the precipice of devastation over rate indecision and then all of a sudden AI came along. Seemingly out of the blue. Nothing even close to that multiple expansion is on the horizon.
2) A soft landing is now out of the question given the Fed should have cut this week and didnt. They will now have to cut 50 basis points minimum first cut, horrible look and will do nothing because rates willl already be there by that time.
3) You are literally using technicals when they conveniently support your bias, ignoring the maco and fundamentals, and then alternatively using macro/fundamentals when they conveniently support your bias, ignoring the technicals. To even begin to assume the IWM is a sign of strength is insane. These things happen skotatistically provable at the beginning of recession. As well, this is the case for fed pivots and cuts.
he uses technical because he has no understanding of macro or fundamentals, thats all he does. its all a song and dance to sound smart. the big giveaway is he NEVER makes any call and his conclusion is always "lets wait and see", well if you do that you can never be wrong. his performance sucks and the only thing you get is these videos.
@@gmoogle2615 but... there may be the possibility he's accepting new clients in a few weeks. just in case you missed that part of the video. lol!
Hot knife through butter look😮everything still looks great?
Thank you another week Chris!🙏🙏
$1 in 1971 is now 3 cents in 2024. Why use dishonest inaccurate fraudulent debt notes, IOUs, fake paper money, to measure honest real value?
Damn
Buy the dip
Welcome to the Confirmation Bias Channel.
As always, thank you for your weekly video series. I find your analysis very valuable.
Thank you Chris! Excellent work, as usual.
I enjoy your videos
Thanks as always!
Thank you bro 😃👊
Thanks Chris. Especially now, your insights and analysis are much appreciated.
We had one the other day. 3% in the NASDAQ. Then went on to drop like a rock.
Companies in 2000 were not making money. Companies today are profitable but the AI hype blew the valuation. There are other problems in the economy. The inflation is not going away as long as the government is spending more than it collects.
I truly appreciate your great in-depth way of analyzing the markets!!
Thanks for this data-driven perspective. It's good to hear amid all the panic
I have been following this channel for 3 years now and he is never bearish. Money managers who depend on you to buy are never bearish. They get bearish only when they retire. He uses moving averages and they dont predict anything nor do past chart patterns. Every bullish pattern can be interpreted as bearish as well. You need to remember that US markets have been bullish as the dollar has been the reserve currency and its losing its shine. US is on the decline so diversify and dont just look at indicators.
I guess this depends on how you define “bearish”. You might recall that for a significant period in the last three years he was not taking in new funds and had his clients largely in money market funds which don’t generate meaningful profits for his firm, so unlike some funds that are always net long, he clearly takes a position of remaining on the sidelines during bad set ups. That said, I’ve never heard him say he’s advocating going short. He is definitely not a perma-bull.
@@anirbansahavlogs that’s the game… it’s the hype and they use to validate their existence to the unwary
I can't believe folks watch more than one video from this guy. When there is a crash, you'll be down 20-30% before he will "see" anything in the charts. At that point, he'll still be bullish because 12 months later, the market will typically be higher than it was at the low.
“The charts” are not the real economy. Labor market slowing, inventories building up, cash spend is weaker, growth is slowing.
The driving force behind the uptrend have been AI development and they opened up their books in the last few weeks and it’s not really there. There are some contrary data points here and there but the general trend is there is not much spending on it yet. It’s all future spend and growth still. Too far out to justify the multiples.
It’s time for the pull back. And it’s already started.
Pullbacks are healthy. Ultimately the market just tracks productivity anyways. The US is wicked productive.@@exnihilonihilfit8645
@@exnihilonihilfit8645 Earnings have been remarkable actually for the most part, especially large cap tech. Market is selling off because investors are nervous about how much stocks have run up the last 9 months, geo political risks are as high as ever, and housing market is showing weakness and will have a correction, especially if jobs numbers continue to be bad.
Why the pick earnings reports to sell off stocks I do not know. Surprised they held AAPL up Friday, it should correct as well soon. But still like AMZN, META, NVDA, GOOG, MSFT most good reports beating expectations basically across the board and maintain or some even increase guidance.
Not true, he told clients to sell in February 2020 right before covid crash, and told everyone to buy right before rally started. Was worth his fee just for that. If you want to make money you need to let him manage it, not everything here on CZcams.
He also got us out right before fed started raising rates, and in 2 days after bottom. He is money dude, spot on.
OUTSTANG WORK THANKS
You are very good at analyzing what has happened, but your indicators are always lagging. Which means when markets change it will take weeks or months before you see it in your indicators.
Watch his videos in december of 2021 and Jan of 2022. He did not see a sell off coming until months well into the bear market. His indicators are very lagging.
Exactly. I've pointed out numerous times how often he's missed glaringly obvious Bearish Divergences, which led to violent market drops. Then he later pointed out Bullish Divergences on the way up. I actually stopped watching these videos, but this one popped up in my feed...
@@eccentricccc 100%
It makes sense to look at the markets this way for a longer term portfolio. Markets tend to have their largest decline when the markets fall into a weekly downtrend.
Noticed that as well. I was recommended to these videos and the very first one I saw showed exactly that. Also, no understanding on market breadth, underlying drivers of the market, just simple rear view mirror project forward stuff.
Disinflationary growth is like rocket fuel for stocks.
At high school our tennis coach taught us “the ready position”, knees bent, loose flexing and moving dynamically slightly left and right and ready in the middle of the court, to receive the ball wherever it may arrive. Feels a bit like that rn, we should patiently be ready to react not predict as the fx evolution guy says. Thank you.
Excellent level-headed analysis as always. Thanks Chris & Cathy
Every unemployment number for the past 2 years has been revised up on the next report, employment is double dipping on multiple part time jobs which has become almost normal for many people, 2 year bond is the market signaling that we need a change now as it takes time for it to filter into the economy. All that being said the Fed historically follows the 2 year in rate changes and the biggest market dips and highest volatility have been after the fed starts cutting. FED is going to wait for 2 more weeks to see what the PPI/CPI next print is - question is what will they do if the print is over 3%. If they don't cut markets will react poorly, if they do cut markets will dead cat bounce and then when the next unemployment comes back worse (remember it takes time to trickle through the system) then markets will fall.
12:00 its not that were coming back to a level its HOW we are coming back. On retraces you always want to see slow and gradual pullbacks. Never violence straight down.
Thank you Chris.
did he just shrug again? i dont understand why people pay this guy to manage their money, his videos sound smart but he never makes a call or makes a move
@@gmoogle2615 time for Lance Roberts to
Thank you!
I respect your work Chris but I can't help but feel like every week its just 30 minutes of confirmation bias.
If you go back and view the previous posts, he posts bearish info when the market looks bearish. You're not wrong that this feels like my weekly dose of optimism, but he does legitimately post the negative data/sentiment when it's there. A lot of the older videos were spot on in regards to the market trending bearish, while trending that direction, per the data. Do you disagree with the data he is showing? Would you mind sharing what you are viewing that none of us are seeing? This honestly seems like a cyclical down move based on the market having a tantrum. The exact same thing happened when Yellen was raising rates. She stopped and the market rallied. This feels and looks like the same thing imo.
10000000000000000000% yep.. dude is a clown
Yes because his indicators are very lagging.
@@ThatonedudeCR12956 Jay stopped raising rates a year ago.
@@ThatonedudeCR12956 Nope! I've pointed out numerous times when there were glaringly obvious Bearish Divergences -- among other important Bearish indicators -- and he completely ignored them... only to point out Bullish Divergences when they fit his Bullish Bias. That's really bad technical analysis...
Yall weirdly bullish all the time
Thank you! Awesome Content, as always!
Thank you, Mr. Ciovacco! I love your content!
thanks Chris.
Thx
When the tide goes out we will see who's swimming naked, Tom Lee's top trade just a week ago was to buy Russell small caps, that had 40% upside. Permabulls have been right for long time, but if we go into a brutal bear market they will get destroyed. Not saying Chris is a permabull, but he's always looked for reasons for the market to go up, maybe he's right, but I think markets are making generational top here
Imagine thinking that drawings of past price levels has any predictive value for the future.
Imagine not studying history because you think it has no value.
You know that there are loads of hedge funds that use simple moving average strategies and trade profitably using them
@@AB-zv6dz please name one.
@@nech060404 The fact you say 'please name one' suggests you know very little about the market. Are you a trader?
@@nech060404 Oh I did reply to you but as usual the youtube censorship whatever deleted my comments. This site is become a disgrace
Devils advocate: The fact that the market now looks much stronger than 2000 is because its much more extended/distorted from underlying fundamentals. The false AI hype along with the previous bout of central bank liquidity has yielded a much stronger move higher. The markets in 2000 were not subject to the levels of market manipulation with CTA machines, central bank injections etc etc. This simply serves to increase the risk in the market, making the likelihood of a more significant pullback than the normal 5% to 20% much more probable.
Thanks Chris. Rode IBTL :) - Awaiting SPY & XLK (Now@200dMA) etc. to pull up, noting SAHM. FED can't act on a single piece of UNEMP data, but it is slowly ticking up.
Love all your videos. Anyway you could enlarge your mouse or make it black to contrast then white back ground. Sometimes it’s hard to see the moose. Thanks again!
In 2024 the vast majority of trading is driven by algorithms, including predictive machine learning. That was not the case in 2000, so looking at this time frame is not reliable. Further, while today markets are overbought, profit earnings are holding, revenue is slowing but profits aren't negative, so markets are unlikely to crash unless a black swan (UNPREDICTABLE) event occurs. IMO, its a time to trim positions, take profits, not enter new longs, and keep stops tight until an up trend develops.
I think it's important to consider your age when doing market analysis. If you're young (
Driving by looking in the rear view mirror is hazardous to your health and wealth…
The fed will always be a day late and a dollar short… market manipulation is tough for those who don’t get the benefit of insider trading information… especially in the futures and currency Markets… Powell has the power to make anyone he wishes to be rich beyond their wildest dreams with one word
DIY is risky because of the market's volatility. To succeed in investing, you do not have to figure out who will be the next NVDA. Select dividend aristocrats, premium ETFs, and a reliable advisor. An amazing accomplishment occurred when I converted $180k into $200k in quarterly dividends.
When greater market diversification begins to emerge before the end of 2024, investors should, in my opinion, always put their money to work. About $350,000 of my funds are intended to be invested in equities over the upcoming year. In 2025, I want to be millionaires.
Now that the risk is at an all-time high, maybe you should exercise a bit more patience and come back when the risk has subsided. As an alternative, you can get strategic advice from a qualified financial specialist.
Indeed, it is true that I have spoken with a brokerage advisor. My adviser selects the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to over $550k, from an original starting reserve of $80k.
It's been a while since I've wanted to move to an advisor. Could you please tell me who your advisor is?
*Layan Talia Chokr* is my CFA, is a well-known professional in her field. I advise looking over her qualifications in more detail. She is an invaluable resource for anyone trying to navigate the financial market because of her extensive knowledge.
Great charts and work but the Nasdaq high of 5 K was February 2000 . September too late to get out without a 40 loss .
Why are you comparing 2000? This is 1968 bud
why this has to be the same I don’t understand the logic here. It seems like such “analysts” just baiting people
I'm curious what will this bubble be called?
AI or tech bubble or Mag-7 bubble.
Even if we enter a bear market this guy is still going to find an indicator to tell us it’s bullish
Pro Tip: If price is above an anchored vwap, the vwap will ALWAYS slope up. If Price is below an anchored vwap, the vwap will ALWAYS slope down. When will an anchored vwap be flat you ask? Well good question friend. An anchored vwap will ALWAYS be exactly flat when price is equal or at that vwap. Now back to you Chris.
IMHO, somebody is cooking the numbers until the election and then they will pull the rug out. I will definitely be on the sidelines around then making 5% and eating popcorn , watching the show
Thanks you. It’s very insightful.
Perma bulls - tell that to Buffett
thank u very much
The stock market just took a break from crashing up.
It was pricing in hyperinflation. Now it is pricing in "oh shit Trump might win" and we might not crash up.
No two periods of time in history are the same. You could build a bull case or a bear case, just depending on which way your bias has you leaning. I would suggest making a bull case video and then a bear case video at moments like this, to see which is more compelling...
He did. There are 7 similar bull cases and 2 similar bear cases, with one being a recession. The point of looking at all similar cases rather than just two is because... No two periods of time in history are the same.
And we All know....
" The Waiting is the Hardest Part "
Tom Petty .
It’s very similar to the 1930’s depression bud. Broaden your brain, broaden your thinking
Bears out in force trying to scare you. Look out.
its not even sep or oct yet... the downside party is just getting starting... they wont be happy until you lose 50% of your portfolio.. and at that time they'll say its time to scale out of long positions... ..this guy has clients which he has keep happy while losing their life savings...
going bearish.?... so, disapointed... didnt think u were paper hands...
Another video another prediction of crash.
Weeks ago I asked why you didn’t analyze volume. No response. Bammo. Your analysis lags and misses many inputs. Hope you protected your clients. Regardless. Thanks.
Relax dude lol 😂
I may be wrong, but I have always assumed the information he gives is essentially just a broad statement on overall market conditions. I would not use this information for anything like short term trading. It's just the current overall trend. If you look at the older posts, he posted when the market was becoming more bearish as well. All of the data being used that I have checked to verify was pretty spot on. Definitely doesn't mean nothing will be missed. But I honestly view these as my weekly confirmation bias. He's generally discussing the same things I have been checking throughout the week.
Chris has been right, right, right, and right again for YEARS.
Volume on the large time frames he is showing is irrelevant.
The chartered market technicians association has run analysis on volume and broadmarket moves. There is no statistical correlation between volume and trend. It’s a myth. I find ppl who quote volume as confirming trends are just reinforcing their own pre existing bias. Watch the market bounce and get back to all time highs by mid September
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
🚀🚀🚀
This market is the most grossly overvalued markets I have ever seen.
Bro, it is still bullish, it is just tje dip. Ask all your viewers to keep buying as you have been doing. This is once in lifetime oppprtunity. Please dnt change
The only more delusional bull is Tom Lee.
This video misses the fact that we are going into a recession. The technicals don’t matter when we go into a recession. Why not analysis the unemployment and bond market charts screaming a recession is coming?!?
You tell us what will happen not what happened
Dude bear market cut the bs . We are going to 1375-1400 on sp500 by mid 2028 look at 40 year chart.
😂 thanks for the laugh
@@svenkateswaran7516 Welp, it could happen, right?
Unlikely but anything can happen
0 chance we go to 1400
Aww this guy lost a lot of money😂
We are now in stock market crash mode
Thank you!