The demand for solar PV in South Africa was initially driven by government policy through the public Renewable Energy IPP Procurement (REIPPP) programme, within a single buyer model, with Eskom as the single buyer.
However, this bureaucratic stop/start procurement process became overtaken by the rapid uptake of “behind-the-meter” solar PV and battery energy storage (BES) solutions largely in the residential, commercial and agricultural sectors, driven by security-of-supply and business continuity considerations resulting from high levels of load shedding.
At the same time, the easing of generation licencing regulations opened the door to large-scale wheeling of power across the Eskom grid with bilateral and multilateral wheeling contracts between IPPs and large mining and industrial off-takers. These were driven by the need to hedge at least a portion of the off-taker's electricity supply against future price increases of grid (Eskom) electricity, as well as decarbonisation pressures away from coal-fired Eskom electricity.
Further developments of the concepts of virtual wheeling and token wheeling augured the possibility of wheeling across the Eskom grid to smaller electricity customers embedded within municipal distribution networks, and the advent of third-party electricity traders.
However imminent changes in the fixed, variable and other components of electricity tariff structures, and the sudden reduction in load shedding from the beginning of 2024, has resulted in significant market uncertainty regarding the pace and scale of the roll-out of solar PV and BES solutions, and the failure of at least two major energy companies serving the residential and commercial sectors.
This webinar considers the future market prospects for solar PV and BES in South Africa, and the view ahead for the residential, commercial, agricultural, manufacturing, industrial, mining and public procurement sectors, where the underlying policy, economic and decarbonisation drivers will likely continue, even as the security of supply driver fades.