A cloudburst is a sudden and very intense rainfall event that happens over a small area, usually within a short period, like a few minutes to a couple of hours. During a cloudburst, rainfall can be extremely heavy.
Cloudbursts can lead to Flash floods, landslides, and unfortunately, a lot of destruction. And the scary part? They happen with little to no warning.
In Assam, the areas most prone to cloudbursts are typically located in hilly and mountainous regions, particularly those near the eastern Himalayas. These areas are vulnerable due to their topography, which can lead to intense rainfall being trapped and released suddenly. Some key cloudburst-prone areas in Assam and the surrounding Northeast India region include:
Dima Hasao District, Karbi Anglong, Kamrup (Rural), Goalpara. Other Hilly Areas of Assam: Regions bordering Arunachal Pradesh and Meghalaya are also prone to cloudbursts due to the steep terrain and high rainfall intensity.
Cloudbursts are caused by the rapid condensation of large amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere. Here’s a step-by-step explanation of the process:
1.Warm Air Rises: When the sun heats the ground, the warm air near the surface starts rising. This warm air carries a lot of moisture with it, which it gathers from water bodies like oceans, rivers, and even moist soil.
2.Formation of Clouds: As the warm, moist air rises, it cools down. When air cools, it can’t hold as much moisture, so the water vapor starts to condense into tiny droplets, forming clouds. If the air keeps rising, the clouds grow taller and larger. Usually, when the droplets become heavy enough, they fall as rain. But in a cloud burst scenario, something different happens.
3.Development of a Cumulonimbus Cloud: Sometimes, the rising air can form a type of cloud called a cumulonimbus cloud, which is very tall and thick. These clouds are often associated with thunderstorms and can hold a lot of moisture.
4.Weakening of Updrafts: When these droplets finally become too heavy for the updraft to support, or when the updraft weakens, all this accumulated water falls at once, resulting in extremely intense rainfall.
5. Intense Rainfall: When the waterfalls, it comes down as a heavy downpour, often leading to what we call a cloudburst. The rain is so intense that it overwhelms the land’s ability to absorb or drain the water, causing flash floods.
As the planet heats up, the atmosphere can hold more moisture. It’s like adding more water to a sponge. When this 'sponge' is squeezed-like by a sudden change in temperature or wind patterns-all that water is released in a very short time, resulting in a cloudburst.
Scientists tell us that for every 1°C rise in temperature, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more moisture. This means more intense and frequent cloudbursts, especially in regions already prone to heavy rain.
Cloud bursts are like nature's pop-up storms - they form fast and hit hard. Current prediction methods include:
- Doppler radar: Great for short-term warnings, but limited in remote areas.
- Satellite imagery: Helps spot dangerous cloud formations, but can't pinpoint exact locations.
- Weather models: Good for general conditions, but struggle with such localized events.
Advances in Predicting Cloudbursts
1.High-Resolution Weather Models: Meteorologists use high-resolution models that simulate weather at a finer scale, improving the ability to predict localized heavy rainfall. These models can indicate conditions that might lead to cloudbursts, though not with pinpoint accuracy.
2.Radar and Satellite Technology: Weather radars and satellites provide real-time data on cloud formation, moisture levels, and atmospheric instability. These tools can help identify developing storm systems that might produce a cloudburst, allowing for short-term warnings.
3.Machine Learning and AI: Artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms are being developed to analyze vast amounts of weather data quickly. These technologies can identify patterns that may precede cloudbursts, potentially improving forecasting accuracy.
4.Early Warning Systems: In regions prone to cloudbursts, early warning systems are being set up. These systems combine weather data with topographic and hydrological information to assess the risk and provide warnings to communities.
While predicting cloudbursts remains a challenge, we can focus on being better prepared.
This includes:
1. Improve early warning systems
2. Develop better urban drainage
3. Protect and restore natural flood barriers like forests and wetlands
4. And most importantly, tackle climate change to reduce extreme weather in the long run.
Cloudbursts are a clear sign of how our planet is changing, and they remind us why acting on climate change is so important.
Attributes:
www.google.com/earth/studio/
weather.us/model-charts
mausam.imd.gov.in/