Climate & Energy College
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Scaling up green hydrogen supply (30 Nov 2022)
Green hydrogen from renewable electricity and derived electrofuels can replace fossil fuels in applications where direct electrification is infeasible. While this makes them crucial for climate neutrality, rapidly scaling up supply is critical and challenging. Here we analyse potential expansion pathways of electrolysers, using a probabilistic model of S-shaped technology diffusion. We find that even if electrolysis capacity grows as fast as wind and solar power (the growth-rate champions) green hydrogen supply will remain scarce in the short term and uncertain in the long term. Despite initial exponential growth, green hydrogen likely (≥75%) supplies less than 1% of final energy through 2030 (2035) in the EU (globally). By 2040, a breakthrough to higher shares is more likely, but large uncertainties prevail with an interquartile range of 3.2-11.2% (EU) and 0.7-3.3% (globally). Both short-term scarcity and long-term uncertainty impede investment in hydrogen end-uses and infrastructure, reducing green hydrogen’s potential and jeopardising climate targets. However, historic analogues suggest that emergency-like policy measures could foster substantially higher growth rates. This would be required to keep the ambitious 2030 EU hydrogen target within reach and increase the likelihood of future hydrogen availability in the EU and globally.
Adrian Odenweller is a doctoral researcher in the Energy Systems Group at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and a PhD candidate at the Technical University of Berlin. His research focuses on the role of hydrogen and electrification in climate change mitigation scenarios. Adrian holds degrees in Climate Science (M.Sc), Physics (B.Sc.) and Economics (B.Sc.) from the Universities of Hamburg and Cologne. Previously, he was a research assistant at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, a visiting researcher at the University of Cambridge, and a trainee at the European Central Bank.
Presentation from the MCF Academy Seminar Series: Climate and Energy. Recorded on the 30 November 2022, 3:00pm - 4:00pm.
zhlédnutí: 91

Video

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zhlédnutí 400Před rokem
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Komentáře

  • @walidhubbi4550
    @walidhubbi4550 Před 9 dny

    Could you post a link to your dissertation, Thanks.

  • @AhmedSaeed-rp7ls
    @AhmedSaeed-rp7ls Před měsícem

    How to do this?

  • @davidpaul6970
    @davidpaul6970 Před rokem

    Can’t hear or understand Sarah well. Missing about 50% of what she’s saying

  • @pimohbusiness
    @pimohbusiness Před rokem

    actually this year its already 1.6 degrees C

  • @levislevitas
    @levislevitas Před rokem

    this is an important discussion.

  • @tsegayedemlie6308
    @tsegayedemlie6308 Před rokem

    Thank you so much !!!

  • @shafiullah2140
    @shafiullah2140 Před rokem

    Thank you for sharing.

  • @nickbagnall
    @nickbagnall Před rokem

    When he said, “if you believe in climate change and global warming like me,” I decided to gather information elsewhere, for he sure is delusional and nonsensical, brainwashed. Climate change is real, has occurred for billions of years, the earth warms and cools in relationship to its environment, the sun, the Milankovitch cycles, and weather oscillations in the oceans. Furthermore, if he understood radiant forcing, he would know C02 does not have the power to alter energy. Carbon dioxide holds heat for less than a thousandth of a second, so it could only cause 0.2 watts per square metre, whereas the sun produces on average approximately 200 Watts per square metre, notwithstanding, water vapour has twice the radiant forcing power of CO2. And, water vapour is at 240,000 ppm, whereas CO2 is at 420ppm with human production only representing 5% of the 420ppm, in other words, 22 parts out of a total of 420 parts. Ever wondered why the night is warmer when its cloudy, or the day colder when its cloudy, well that would be the 240,000 ppm of water vapour in our atmosphere, go figure.

  • @brucefrykman8295
    @brucefrykman8295 Před rokem

    What the hell is CMIP6? Another Windows release?

  • @mesfinmelaku6883
    @mesfinmelaku6883 Před rokem

    please can you explain on cordex cmip6 data?

  • @martinausdeutschland

    Die schweitzerische Firma Meyer Burger baut Solarzellen in Konkurrenz zu China in Deutschland.

  • @kadran3263
    @kadran3263 Před rokem

    We are completely fkt. The best we can hope for is +3ºC but this is unlikely.

  • @tristanschreiber5279

    I am disappointed: These scenarios are pure academic but ignore to a largebpart that their simulated world is located on a plannet with a biological system. They build on Carbon capture abd storage which is unlikely to come in an extend required. They assume a agriculture efficiency increase of 100% - with industrial agriculture that is not anymore increasing yields but destroying soils and biological diversity. How shall we live longer with more pests, more people in hunger (FAO), more dust in the air from wildfires, less microbial diversity in our gut systems due to unhealthy food surply, more plastic polution … There are so manny question marks that my judgemend is: These scenarions are bull shit. There is likely no future that is described by one of these scenarios.

  • @alienoverlordsnow1786

    These scenarios are all phony. Runaway greenhouse is in progress. Reducing emissions will not slow the runaway heating. Only the removal of two trillion tons of greenhouse gasses from the atosphere will do that. Every scientist is forced to hide the truth, or he will lose his job. If it was me, I would get a different job.

  • @UZEF81music
    @UZEF81music Před rokem

    Still not 2° impossible

  • @illerskiller
    @illerskiller Před rokem

    This is absolute bullshit. Creating rain and clouds now everybody thinks climate change is real and not about communism

  • @reinerwilhelms-tricarico344

    Still beats me why so much drama is made about N2O (nitrus oxide). It barely matters as a green house gas (see your figure at 12:20) compared to CO2 but also matters much less than CH4, and yet many governments (following top-down WEF doctrines) are rushing now in lockstep towards implementation of drastic policies to reduce N2O by basically bankrupting farmers on an unprecedented scale. There is already a big - and very much justified - backlash against this idiocy.

    • @brucefrykman8295
      @brucefrykman8295 Před rokem

      Shut up and eat your cockroaches - the -planet- elites feels threatened! Have you any idea what it costs to rev up all the Grumman Gulfstream G700s executive jets to wing off to the next climate conference? (382 gallons of jet fuel per hour). Luckily the saps who pay for all this BS (taxpayers) pick up the tab for you as well as the Lobster Bisque, Caviar and Dom Perignon to wash it all down with - Next climate conference in Monte Carlo - wheee. Dat climate sh!t shore taste gud.

  • @russtomlin4922
    @russtomlin4922 Před 2 lety

    Excellent presentation.

  • @jamess1442
    @jamess1442 Před 2 lety

    You are either incredibly naive or corrupt to believe the world won't continue to use fossil fuels because renewables are cheaper. Renewables have been cheaper for years and fossil fuel extraction is expanding?! Also you don't seem to have included feedbacks like methane from permafrost for example in your analysis. What is going on here?

  • @vsotofrances
    @vsotofrances Před 2 lety

    Any EROI analysis of the whole energy system?

  • @shivamallarapu5058
    @shivamallarapu5058 Před 2 lety

    could you please provide some link to find dataset

    • @abdulngcamu7906
      @abdulngcamu7906 Před 7 měsíci

      did you find these dataset....if no which ones you used?

  • @rogeryoung6261
    @rogeryoung6261 Před 2 lety

    Unfortunately Renewable Energy doesn’t work. Here’s a simple way to see this: czcams.com/video/r7qWIpiKfTI/video.html

  • @andrewchoi5808
    @andrewchoi5808 Před 2 lety

    Limit global warming by 2100

  • @jimj2683
    @jimj2683 Před 2 lety

    The low efficiency argument of e-fuels fails when you take into account this: Using E-fuels to transport renewable electricity from places with abundance is more economically efficient than trying to set up long distance wires. E-fuels can be made anywhere on the planet where green electricity is the cheapest. (For example Chile) Charging your battery electric vehicle will only be done with your local (expensive and not so green) grid. So in the end the cost of using e-fuels might be very similar to batteries. There is no shortage to how much renewable energy we can produce on this planet. The only problem is about profitability/cost and distribution. Once e-fuels become profitable it will cause a surge in renewable energy being made. Renewable energy is only scarce on a local scale. Covering only 1% of the Saharan desert in solar cells gives enough electricity for todays global usage. The main challenge is distribution and profitability. E-fuels are the answer to this. And we already have the infrastructure in place.

  • @user-cv1jb9xv2p
    @user-cv1jb9xv2p Před 2 lety

    🙏🏼👍🏼👍🏼

  • @drdusandr
    @drdusandr Před 2 lety

    Without CO2 there is no life. Co2 is so rare commodity and you want to produce stone with it. (All continental mountains like Himalaia, Andies, Alps, etc. are made of CO2 from the air by life). Plants grow faster, bigger because there is at least twice as much CO2 the century ago (ask farmers which produce plants in greenhouses, they put even 2x more CO2 and the temperature is even higher. Plants can close their pores to reduce dehydration due to heath because they can get CO2 faster. CO2 is GOOD GOOD NOT bad. CO2 is not C carbon.

    • @Xman360z
      @Xman360z Před 2 lety

      you are insane, what are you even talking about

  • @davidmcdonald1441
    @davidmcdonald1441 Před 2 lety

    better off looking at the HARTLAND INSTITUTE youtube vids

  • @johnpritchard8946
    @johnpritchard8946 Před 2 lety

    I've just returned to this (from about 15 min to the conclusion at about 18 min). I can't follow because the charts don't say what the numbers refer to - are they percentages? Also the first charts in the conclusion have the same title, "Unabated Fossil Fuel Consumption". I can guess 1.75C is warming since 1850? but what is the distinction between w CDR and w/o CDR?

  • @user-cv1jb9xv2p
    @user-cv1jb9xv2p Před 2 lety

    👍🏼👍🏼

  • @zehanazani6946
    @zehanazani6946 Před 2 lety

    Really useful, thank you so much for giving the access. As a student this is help me to improve my discussion about climate scenario with my lecture.

  • @clintpalmer2155
    @clintpalmer2155 Před 2 lety

    Think your blowing smoke up our asses where ya guys get your funding from .

  • @tedclapham4833
    @tedclapham4833 Před 2 lety

    There is no Climate emergency, the only reason the IPCC exists is to bring about a totalitarian world government based on the UN, a massive power grab! Zero of the predictions of the IPCC has come come even close to coming true, and their % accuracy is 0%. I consider the UN and IPCC a terrorist organization and net zero will likely lead to the end of all life on this planet.

  • @somebodymee6535
    @somebodymee6535 Před 2 lety

    So Amber is only good for people with solar?

    • @evdave6693
      @evdave6693 Před 2 lety

      No. In fact, if you’re wanting a high FIT, you’re better off elsewhere. Personally, I love Amber and have saved heaps of 💰 and dirty emissions since changing 8 months ago and have no solar…yet.

    • @somebodymee6535
      @somebodymee6535 Před 2 lety

      @@evdave6693 I still dont understand how Amber works. Every article or CZcams I've watched lays so much emphasis of solar. So I'm not sure about it yet as I don't have solar, unless someone explains to me.

    • @evdave6693
      @evdave6693 Před 2 lety

      @@somebodymee6535 Without solar, my average cost after 12 months is 20.6c \ kWh. My old company, energy Australia, charged a flat fee of $.33 per kilowatt hour. That’s roughly $1100 cheaper per year.

  • @wailal-sharabi250
    @wailal-sharabi250 Před 2 lety

    Is there scholarship for PhD International students?

  • @eckligt
    @eckligt Před 2 lety

    But is it really a goal to make everything renewable? Rhino horns and spermaceti oil are renewable, but certainly not sustainable. Conversely, nuclear power is not renewable but certainly sustainable.

  • @8cupsCoffee
    @8cupsCoffee Před 2 lety

    This presentation is reallllly emphasizing the best case scenario and not engaging with the other scenarios. I guess you don’t want people to get discouraged and give up? I think people should be scared into their wits by this data. Lots of hand waving. This is how I talk to my grandson. And this is how my doctor talks to me. Like I’m 5. Lol “remaining carbon budgets”, that’s like a budget you get from a payday loan

    • @C_R_O_M________
      @C_R_O_M________ Před 2 lety

      When it goes for this kind of science you are not even 5, you are a 2 - year old! Humanity has been exaggerating the CO2 effect on the climate and it’s starting to show (the planet is actually steady or cooling since the beginning of the century while CO2 keeps increasing and they don’t even know why it’s increasing because the extra carbon doesn’t have an anthropogenic signal on it).

  • @eckligt
    @eckligt Před 2 lety

    The question round at the end was a bit painful to listen to. It's nice to let people finish their questions even when one might disagree with the premises. The thing at 0:12 was also a bit painful.

  • @cdo2204
    @cdo2204 Před 2 lety

    Great work, Thanks for the information

  • @rudigereichler4112
    @rudigereichler4112 Před 2 lety

    paint that color curtain back to 7000 years ago if you are talking about climate seriously.

  • @TheDoomWizard
    @TheDoomWizard Před 2 lety

    I watch this type of content all day.

  • @VarunBandha
    @VarunBandha Před 2 lety

    The model is appropriately named Magicc model, because it's making some fantasy and magical predictions with no basis in reality. That drastic a reduction that soon is not possible in current scenarios, without a big revolution or uprising. These reductions would be so disruptive to the whole system of predatory capitalism that no leader would have a way of implementing them.

  • @greystash998
    @greystash998 Před 2 lety

    what Prevents the planet to create the same planetary conditions as it was the last time it was 400 ppm co2(and all the other gases that heat up the planet) in the atmosphere.

    • @NashHinton
      @NashHinton Před 2 lety

      There is a thermal lag for co2 to affect temperature by about 10-20 years.

    • @NashHinton
      @NashHinton Před 2 lety

      So pliocene conditions should be replicated before 2040.

  • @greystash998
    @greystash998 Před 2 lety

    is All the co2 from the Methane that will turn into co2 included,there is a lot af co2 that will come from the methane that has gone from 800 to 1900 parts in the atmosphere.

    • @reinerwilhelms-tricarico344
      @reinerwilhelms-tricarico344 Před rokem

      The contribution of CH4 becoming CO2 accounts only for a very small part of CO2: Some or most of the Methane will decompose over time, usually will simply burn in one way or another with oxygen, and turn into CO2 and water. This makes a small contribution to increase CO2. However, it is a much stronger greenhouse gas in the original form of CH4. It's important to consider the units of the concentration of the various green house gases. CO2 concentration is measured in ppm - parts per million, which is now more than 400 ppm. It means that in 1 million molecules of air, 400 or more are CO2 molecules. On the other hand, CH4 is usually measured in parts per billion. So the 800 to 1900 ppb means that among 1 billion (1000 million) air molecules are 0.8 to 1.9 molecules of CH4.

    • @brucefrykman8295
      @brucefrykman8295 Před rokem

      1900 parts per 2000? per 20,000? per 200,000? per 2,000,000? per 20,000,000? per 200,000,0000? (CH4 + 2 O3 -> CO2 + 2 H2O) Hint that 1900 parts per billion for CH4 or 1.9 parts per million (ie nothing,- idiot) Major source of Methane emissions - wetlands, holy crap let's sue the EPA for preserving them

  • @dirremoire
    @dirremoire Před 2 lety

    I can't count the number of failed climate change predictions, "The arctic ice will be gone by 2020". "More and stronger Hurricanes!". Perpetual drought, no more snow, Greenland melting (ie negative ice balance). None of it has come true. None.

  • @tombeck8740
    @tombeck8740 Před 2 lety

    Yeah I shot Yeah I saw it Putin is terrified

  • @richardsb61
    @richardsb61 Před 2 lety

    Climate does not rely on computer generated projections but on natural processes the most important being the sun's output of energy reaching the earth's surface. Any discussion which fails to accept the major role of the sun is doomed to reach conclusions which will fail to match actual climate outcomes. Hence the never-ending predictions that Arctic sea-ice will disappear during the summer whilst the sea-ice refuses to obey climate alarmists, is a clear example of the obsession with man-made climate change obstructing scientific assessment of why climate is always changing as it has done so, for the entire history of the earth.

    • @C_R_O_M________
      @C_R_O_M________ Před 2 lety

      It so happens that such a relation was recently published on Nature’s scientific report by Svensmark et Al. (11th of October 2021). Keep pushing against the anti scientific propaganda that mainly spreads so as to justify taxation and energy deprivation.

    • @richardsb61
      @richardsb61 Před 2 lety

      @@C_R_O_M________ I am a professionally qualified scientist and was one of the 270000 surveyed about anthropogenic climate change and the results showed that 75 scientists thought that scenario was possible whilst 2 of them had some reservations about that meaning that 73 out of 75 or 97% thought it was true. However 269925 out of 270000 or 99.9% thought that natural processes were the cause of climate change. You will not find these damning surveys results quoted by the mainstream media or politicians for obvious reasons.

    • @C_R_O_M________
      @C_R_O_M________ Před 2 lety

      @@richardsb61 Thanks! I knew about that myself and have read the Leggates, Soon et al. work on that consensus issue. They found it to be either 0.3% or 0.4%. I know how they formulated that 97% consensus and there should be some formal response (from a scientific body) to that fraud. Why don't you guys create a new survey/study/poll among yourselves and show the world what the actual consensus is on the anthropogenic forcing hypothesis?

    • @richardsb61
      @richardsb61 Před 2 lety

      @@C_R_O_M________ It is surprising how many people, especially amongst scientifically trained academics, find that the politically inspired version of climate science is a total denial of factual measured scientific data and it is widely agreed that any predictions made by the IPCC will fail because they are based on unsound theories which will not pass any scientific scrutiny or pass anything that Mother Nature can throw at it.

    • @C_R_O_M________
      @C_R_O_M________ Před 2 lety

      @@richardsb61 I’m glad that’s the case but in everyday life our energy needs are being taxed to death (especially here in Europe) and this fact brings about inflationary forces on goods and services. This energy deprivation state is affecting the poorest of society and the governments are pushing for central solutions that renders them “saviors” to the ignorant. At the same time inflation is destroying sovereign debt which might be the ultimate goal for governments as their overwhelming debt prevents them from continuing their decades long agenda of manipulating the markets with economic “stimuli”, aka QEs and bond issuing. With a debt as high as it is for most governments, new debt issuing mostly pays for interest payments of past debt and doesn’t end to the pockets of their cronies (because these economic stimuli first pass by the hands of government cronies, government employees, etc, and they are the ones that benefit from the initial purchasing power of the newly printed money). I bet the whole climate agenda is closely related to economic incentives and has very little to do with science. The “follow the money” principle still applies.

  • @callummackay1031
    @callummackay1031 Před 2 lety

    The CO2 LEVEL WITHIN OUR ATMOSPHERE BY PERCENTAGE IS 0.04. MINUSCULE WHY DO WE VILIFY CARBON.. ITS ALL ABOUT THE CARBON TAX. AH-AH

    • @MyKharli
      @MyKharli Před 2 lety

      you argue against yourself as you prove it takes so little to have a dramatic effect ,, so what's your point again ?

    • @C_R_O_M________
      @C_R_O_M________ Před 2 lety

      @@MyKharli BS! It was never proven that it has a dramatic effect! They THINK it has a dramatic effect because the observed warming can’t be attributed to anything else hence they deduct that it must be CO2. That’s VERY different than proving it HAS a dramatic effect! Thankfully, a very recent study is claiming to have found the missing link (don’t expect that to appear in mainstream media) of the Earth’s energy budget. It was the sun all along and its interaction with cosmic rays. Look for Svensmark et al. (11th of October 2021) in Nature’s scientific report. It IS about taxes and political power!

    • @MyKharli
      @MyKharli Před 2 lety

      @@C_R_O_M________ Ah i know where your coming from..you take the heartland institute seriously . So sad .

    • @C_R_O_M________
      @C_R_O_M________ Před 2 lety

      @@MyKharli I definitely take the Heartland institute and ALL of its INDEPENDENT scientists that want to allow my freedom and have no incentives whatsoever (most scientists are retired and have no other incentive whatsoever) over government-sponsored propaganda that aims to tax everyone to death! If you paid LITTLE attention during your history class you’d knew that governments ALWAYS LIE! Whether it is to send you to war, or to exploit you and steal your resources. The government doesn’t create wealth, it steals it! Michael Mann’s fraudulent hockey stick graph was DEBUNKED big time by McIntyre and McKitrick and was even dropped by the IPCC (that even used it as a logo in the past!) is a tell tell sign of what’s going on in the field but I guess you are politically inclined to be blind to that kind of lies! Aren’t you! BTW, go watch Dr. David Evan’s interview (an Australian climate modeler that has nothing to do with the Heritage Foundation) spilled the beans for any fool to see what’s wrong with the climate “science”, nowadays. The video is titled “50 to 1 project, David Evans interview”. Go ahead watch it and “debunk” that!

    • @MyKharli
      @MyKharli Před 2 lety

      @@C_R_O_M________ Mr cherry picker if you are seriously debunking the hockey stick graph..forget michael mann hes a buffoon , there plenty others far more reliable you can go to to show we are exceeding all ipcc worse case scenarios as shown by them in 1980 . Governments have invariably been taken over by big business and media moguls and are only interested in things staying the way they are and you are one of their tools .

  • @craigmead8331
    @craigmead8331 Před 2 lety

    The "high" is 8 to 15C. A 1750 baseline - the initial mark until fossil fuel firms corrupted the IPCC - indicates we're already at 1.8C.

    • @owlnationlegal4228
      @owlnationlegal4228 Před 2 lety

      Where is the loss of CO2 sinks? That'll cause a huge rapid spike not shown in any models.

    • @alexjackson9997
      @alexjackson9997 Před 2 lety

      @@owlnationlegal4228 Also, where is acceleration from methane releases.

  • @craigmead8331
    @craigmead8331 Před 2 lety

    I'll bite...but if you don't state "All life will be extinct in well under a decade" your math isn't as good as mine; someone who did math modeling for NASA physicists. I've warned you for 25 yearz. Anyone home?

    • @owlnationlegal4228
      @owlnationlegal4228 Před 2 lety

      Anyone notice at 9:00 not a single graph shows an exponential upward curve indicating none of the models used actual feedback loops which create a quadratic equation.

    • @jonathanedwardgibson
      @jonathanedwardgibson Před 2 lety

      I can’t, but I’m listening to these trying to find mention of upper limit taper being discussed. When listening to a series of recent long-format shows there was one detailed narrator with results of new feedbacks that slow and start curving flat : no runaway Venus. Stay tuned.

    • @craigmead8331
      @craigmead8331 Před 2 lety

      @@jonathanedwardgibson Its not just feedbacks ramping straight up. Some will; not all, rather trends like falling plankton levels, decreased O2&most especially an abrupt spike in temps as a BOE emerges in the Arctic will trigger massive crop failures, unrest.chaos&parts&labor shortages triggering more infrastructure collapse, toxins and a spiral towards a dead planet. If we hadn't been so good at building a global industrialized village we wouldn't need to worrt about it eroding and killing what little wildlife is left.

    • @owlnationlegal4228
      @owlnationlegal4228 Před 2 lety

      @@jonathanedwardgibson There are different uncharted prospects; I worry about UV degradation from ground-based ionizing radiation&oxidizing gas i.e.CH4. Imagine concentrations so high fire lights the sky; what would O2 be in those regions? O3? Uncharted.

    • @jonathanedwardgibson
      @jonathanedwardgibson Před 2 lety

      Hope, found in simple iron added to seas to promote biosphere by rebalance of CO2… czcams.com/video/nA8iah02Ies/video.html

  • @votemonty1815
    @votemonty1815 Před 2 lety

    You just earned a new subscriber.

    • @owlnationlegal4228
      @owlnationlegal4228 Před 2 lety

      But if you wanted to save Earth & humanity from extinction wouldn't you find a friend or 5, organize a Zoom call, make a plan that was easy and effective and then execute it? I wish "smashing a bell" was all it took, but there are a couple of steps...not hard...to go.

    • @TheDoomWizard
      @TheDoomWizard Před 2 lety

      You might like my channel too.