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Why the expected loss and the expected gain is c times g(Q) ? Can you give me an intuitive explanation plz?

Thanks for the explanation sir!

Great explanation but your formulas notations seem incorrect. It seems like you are forecasting the future based on future data. Is it that your t+1 refers to cell positioning as opposed to the actual period coding?

teşekkürler hocam cidden çok sağolun

Thank you so much

Thanks, I really need the modification of Holt-Winters without seasonality but with trend.

???????

Thanks sir. I have three data points of five years intervals.I want to forecast for 20 years. how I will do it?

you have really qualities of great professor thanks ,I understand <3

You're a God, thank you

Hi how do i find month 11 forecast?

Can you please share the excel file...not able to see the formula

Thanks for this thorough walk through! If I wanted to forecast for week 21+, do I just drag and pull from formula I22 and adjust the changed value in the formula accordingly or is it a different process? Thanks!

what if the data is quarterly. is the procedure still the same?

ans : 2,7,8 ,13 i think

Thank u

Pls make more videos

Dear Mr, I'd like to send the greatest thank to your dedication on these useful explanations about this forecasting method. I wonder where you were for these previous years, why didnt you continue, Mr?

Was going to answer Alpay Dincer's question from 3 years ago, but maybe it's useful for others. Not offering a declarative answer here, just sharing my experience. Paraphrased: "What does it mean if solver gives values of 0 for the smoothing constants?" Solver can certainly give you a values of the smoothing constants at or near zero. You can check this by increasing the number of decimal places excel displays for those cells. However, if you allow unconstrained variables to be negative (by unchecking "Make Unconstrained Variables Non-Negative)", you may get a clearer picture. In my experience this can happen in one of four scenarios: (a) The overall trend is negative or almost non-existent, and needs to be smoothed that way; (b) There aren't enough data points to meaningfully plot, which is confusing solver (do a regression on the forecast and check the f test and R^2); (c) there is little or no seasonality in your data (Same check as in point (b)); or (d) some combination of the previous three. Point (c) can happen if a business isn't properly marketing or promoting their product to create a steadily increasing level of demand; they will be (in effect) subject to exogenous factors (whims of consumers, weather, retail partner sales, etc.). Anyone else have any insights or experience they can share?

Good explanation, however practical value of this exercise is doubtful as you arrive at no forecast whatsoever if you take Alpha=0.

God, this video is very clear, concise, and everything it needs to be. You are a great teacher sir. Thank you for the video.

This video was super helpful. Thank you!

Thanks for working through this example!

Thank you for the very informative video, but I was wondering how would you forecast July? or any months after May?

Nice Video. You can also refer to our website for more videos (www.maxusknowledge.com) or our CZcams channel czcams.com/users/maxusknowledge

I'll never understand why 6 and 5 were left as non feasible. I suppose that's arbitrary

Thank you for sharing ideas

In joint order costing you incorrectly put holding of pumpink as .25 instead of .20

In fact, in my opinion you do not save any money ordering jointly, vs ordering separately, because the TC/box will be in both cases $7.50

Objective: 41575.0 Open facilities: y0 y1 y2 Facility-Client assignments: 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 80.00 0.00 0.00 90.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 0.00 0.00 125.00 150.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nice example BTW, this should be the optimal solution, using the first three facilities, according to Google OR-Tools (CBC_MIXED_INTEGER_PROGRAMMING solver)

The link to your website and the read up problem statement is not working. Gives 404 error.

sir, can you send me this file?

I have an exam tomorrow and could not for the life of me figure out how to calculate the expected profit when given a stochastic demand. It is very clear to me now, thank you!

thanks you

Why can't I get a person like you to be my professor? QQ

I am trying to solve a similar problem but I have a problem : I get variables that are double numbers and of course it can't be accepted, since coffee shops should have at least a variable of 1. Could you help?

Hei. Thank you for the video. Please correct me if I'm wrong, the highlighted section in column 3 starts two cells after and ends two cells before the cells in column two because "p" is equal to 4. What if "p" is 7? How many cells after and before should be the highlighted area? Thank!

Thanks for the explanation! How could I add the confidence interval's upper and lower bounds?

Thank you very much! Would this give me equal results as with the forecats tool in excel? Or that one is not trend corrected?

Highly appreciated...

Hi, do you have the updated link to the slide? The link is dead

Thank you sooo much for your explanation!

Great video! Beautifully explained.

can you tell me how did you programm this? which software did you use?

Alpha must be higher, than Beta...

Fantastic video. Are you at all concerned that solver may overfit your model?

Very well explained. Thank you

why s13 for F17

Ok, good explanations but is there any algorithm that solves the problem?

Great video. Did you know you can use F4 instead of adding the $ individually? saves a lot of frustrations and time.