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Albert S
Hong Kong
Registrace 18. 08. 2006
e-mail: katchum_be@yahoo.com.hk
Gold Forecaster Index: Buy Gold, Avoid Everything Else (04-Sep-2024)
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com/
Twitter: GoldForecast
Playlist: czcams.com/video/g-BksAtCETs/video.html
Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substantial amount of risk. It's likely my approach would not be suitable for you. If you're seeking personalized advice, I encourage you to sit down with a financial professional who can review your personal situation, financial background, risk tolerance, etc.
You should not treat any opinion expressed on this CZcams channel as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable, but this CZcams channel does not warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. This CZcams channel is not under any obligation to update or correct any information provided in these videos. Statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. No compensation is received by this CZcams channel for the opinions expressed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This CZcams channel does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed on this CZcams channel. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than invested. Investments or strategies mentioned on this CZcams channel may not be suitable for you. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned on this CZcams channel. Before acting on information in this CZcams channel, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.
Twitter: GoldForecast
Playlist: czcams.com/video/g-BksAtCETs/video.html
Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substantial amount of risk. It's likely my approach would not be suitable for you. If you're seeking personalized advice, I encourage you to sit down with a financial professional who can review your personal situation, financial background, risk tolerance, etc.
You should not treat any opinion expressed on this CZcams channel as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable, but this CZcams channel does not warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. This CZcams channel is not under any obligation to update or correct any information provided in these videos. Statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. No compensation is received by this CZcams channel for the opinions expressed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This CZcams channel does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed on this CZcams channel. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than invested. Investments or strategies mentioned on this CZcams channel may not be suitable for you. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned on this CZcams channel. Before acting on information in this CZcams channel, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.
zhlédnutí: 263
Video
Stock Screener: Ep. 428: Trigon Metals (TM.V): Unprofitable Operation
zhlédnutí 260Před 14 dny
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com Twitter: GoldForecast Playlist: czcams.com/video/ZLRUeHJ67Vs/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substan...
Stock Screener: Ep. 427: Concavity of NPV of Gold Miners
zhlédnutí 240Před 14 dny
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com Twitter: GoldForecast Playlist: czcams.com/video/ZLRUeHJ67Vs/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substan...
Stock Screener: Ep. 426: Osisko Development Corp. (ODV): It's the CAPEX stupid!
zhlédnutí 183Před 14 dny
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com Twitter: GoldForecast Playlist: czcams.com/video/ZLRUeHJ67Vs/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substan...
Stock Screener: Ep. 425: Market's Assumption of Gold Price Based on Gold Mining Valuations
zhlédnutí 322Před 14 dny
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com Twitter: GoldForecast Playlist: czcams.com/video/ZLRUeHJ67Vs/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substan...
Gold Forecaster Index: 5 Rate Cuts to Boost Gold (06-Aug-2024)
zhlédnutí 215Před měsícem
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com/ Twitter: GoldForecast Playlist: czcams.com/video/g-BksAtCETs/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substa...
WallStreetCourier Dashboard
zhlédnutí 126Před měsícem
Make WallStreetCourier your trusted financial resource. Explore our in-depth market regime analysis, well-tested indicators and smart money positions. This tool support your financial journey, providing you with insights you need to stay informed and make sound investment choices. WallStreetCourier Link: tinyurl.com/bdhx2zup
Stock Screener: Ep. 424: Abcourt Mines (ABI.V): Ramping Up
zhlédnutí 182Před měsícem
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com Twitter: GoldForecast Playlist: czcams.com/video/ZLRUeHJ67Vs/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substan...
Stock Screener: Ep. 423: Endeavour Mining (EDV.TO): 30 Minute Analysis
zhlédnutí 263Před měsícem
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com Twitter: GoldForecast Playlist: czcams.com/video/ZLRUeHJ67Vs/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substan...
Sung's Method for Gold Mining Valuations
zhlédnutí 329Před měsícem
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com Twitter: GoldForecast Playlist: czcams.com/video/ZLRUeHJ67Vs/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substan...
Stock Screener: Ep. 422: Monument Mining (MMY.V): Fundamental Research Corp. Update
zhlédnutí 434Před 2 měsíci
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com Twitter: GoldForecast Fundamental Research Corp: cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1j8gklp-Monument Mining - July 2024 - Update-1.pdf Playlist: czcams.com/video/ZLRUeHJ67Vs/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment p...
Stock Screener: Ep. 421: GoGold Resources (GGD.TO): Upside potential, but with risks
zhlédnutí 283Před 2 měsíci
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com Twitter: GoldForecast Playlist: czcams.com/video/ZLRUeHJ67Vs/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substan...
Gold Forecaster Index: Seasonal Low For Gold (03-Jul-2024)
zhlédnutí 196Před 2 měsíci
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com/ Twitter: GoldForecast Playlist: czcams.com/video/g-BksAtCETs/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substa...
The Lumber Gold Ratio
zhlédnutí 202Před 2 měsíci
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com Twitter: GoldForecast Playlist: czcams.com/video/ZLRUeHJ67Vs/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understand that my style of investing is extremely aggressive and I take on a substan...
Silver Forecaster Index
zhlédnutí 211Před 2 měsíci
Correlation Economics: katchum.blogspot.com Twitter: GoldForecast Silver Forecaster Index: katchum.blogspot.com/2024/06/silver-forecaster.html Playlist: czcams.com/video/3eOfiOporTQ/video.html Nothing I say is “investment advice“ and you should do your own research before making any investment decision. This channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please understa...
Stock Screener: Ep. 420: Nevada Copper is Bankrupt
zhlédnutí 292Před 2 měsíci
Stock Screener: Ep. 420: Nevada Copper is Bankrupt
Stock Screener: Ep 419: Wesdome Gold (WDO.TO): NPV Flow Chart
zhlédnutí 213Před 2 měsíci
Stock Screener: Ep 419: Wesdome Gold (WDO.TO): NPV Flow Chart
Stock Screener: Ep. 418: Candy Story Update
zhlédnutí 311Před 2 měsíci
Stock Screener: Ep. 418: Candy Story Update
Gold Forecaster Index: Rate Cutting Cycle Starts (06-Jun-2024)
zhlédnutí 251Před 3 měsíci
Gold Forecaster Index: Rate Cutting Cycle Starts (06-Jun-2024)
Stock Screener: Ep. 417: Monument Mining (MMY.V): Financial Results Ended March 2024
zhlédnutí 408Před 3 měsíci
Stock Screener: Ep. 417: Monument Mining (MMY.V): Financial Results Ended March 2024
Stock Screener: Ep. 416: Minnova Corp. (MCI.V): Why is it so cheap?
zhlédnutí 259Před 3 měsíci
Stock Screener: Ep. 416: Minnova Corp. (MCI.V): Why is it so cheap?
Stock Screener: Ep. 415: Guanajuato Silver (GSVR.V): Looking Deeper Into Financials
zhlédnutí 590Před 3 měsíci
Stock Screener: Ep. 415: Guanajuato Silver (GSVR.V): Looking Deeper Into Financials
Stock Screener: Ep. 414: The Gold Futures Curve
zhlédnutí 220Před 3 měsíci
Stock Screener: Ep. 414: The Gold Futures Curve
Stock Screener: Ep. 413: Santacruz Silver (SCZ.V): Valuation Update
zhlédnutí 339Před 3 měsíci
Stock Screener: Ep. 413: Santacruz Silver (SCZ.V): Valuation Update
Stock Screener: Ep. 412: Gold Miners at $8000 Gold
zhlédnutí 355Před 3 měsíci
Stock Screener: Ep. 412: Gold Miners at $8000 Gold
BMW i4 2024 Review: Panoramic Roof - Tacora Red Leather - Harman Kardon Speakers
zhlédnutí 370Před 3 měsíci
BMW i4 2024 Review: Panoramic Roof - Tacora Red Leather - Harman Kardon Speakers
Stock Screener: Ep. 410: Danaos Corporation (DAC): Same Price, Different Company
zhlédnutí 390Před 3 měsíci
Stock Screener: Ep. 410: Danaos Corporation (DAC): Same Price, Different Company
Gold Forecaster Index: Stagflation! (02-May-2024)
zhlédnutí 241Před 4 měsíci
Gold Forecaster Index: Stagflation! (02-May-2024)
25:00 If you look historically on unemployment rate and silver price, silver price have gone up a lot together with gold. Why do you think it's different now? I know silver is industrial but still it's 50% as gold. December 2009 Usa topped in unemployment at 9%. Silver then topped at 18 usd and the following years it went sky high close to 50 usd. And gold went from 900 to 1700 during the same time period. Thanks for the video
gold outperforms silver when unemployment rises.
@@katchum Alright, so just during the initial shock as everything gets sold off
@@bennyboy5374 Yes, once the yield curve has uninverted, then money flows back in the economy and silver will outperform gold.
20:00 I like Tin because it's heavily ignored, and since we got into the electronic age we have consumed a lot of the Tin that was in the warehouses. It's the soldering that consume so much and only thing to replace it with would be silver. Only problem is there isn't any Tin mine stocks to buy except Alphamin which is in a very dangerous country and the stock price is already to high.
Yes DRC is dangerous
Another great summary of gold fundamentals. Thanks!
77292 Legros Port
Not work bro😢😢
I have given up on Soma after that dreadful Q2 earnings report. Gold averaged $2338 in Q2, and Soma could not even make a profit. The mine seems to have self destructed with low production and costs through the roof. They are not meeting any of their growth goals either. Everything is getting pushed out. Just one year ago, the promised investors 47k ounces in 2024. Now they are expecting 32.5k ounces. What a disaster. Management cannot even come close to keeping their promises even with the price of gold cooperating. They also seem to have put the mill expansion on hold. From the PR: "We are optimistic that these discoveries can lead to an increase in mineable resources, enhancing the feed for our two mills and possibly justifying the fully permitted mill expansion.”" As for the grades improving, last quarter they said the grades would improve in the 2nd half. Now they are saying 4th quarter. I think there is a good chance that the new mining method they are using is simply not working. Always beware when any company says they need to change the mining method.
How about Mineros S.A (MSA.TO)? 336M market cap (fairly small) which pays a dividend.
Mineros is excellent
What do you think about latest Soma results?
Costs higher, but will improve when grades rise back. Buying opportunity.
Thanks
My three FAV's are MSA GSVR & LUCA........feel free to disagree !
Have a look..Q1 2024 Highlights GSVR shares at .25 silver at $30 rated in AGEq one Million oz/quarter Record metals production during the quarter of 987,312 AgEq (silver equivalent) was up 16% over the previous quarter; AgEq ounces derived from 428,279 ounces of silver; 5,384 ounces of gold; 879,242 pounds of lead; and 922,297 pounds of zinc (see footnote to table below for assumptions regarding the calculation of silver equivalents).
Albert trial started today still in?
No, I don't want to gamble.
What if it dont work? Im just tinkering. Got the red line and i think this worked before. I out blac tape on one side and it worked for a while. I remeber this working once before. I think my charge port is our or my battery is dead. Ipad mini 2. Omfg it came on as i was typing this gtfoh. Wtf? Bruh can you help me get into an s20fe? I lost access t my emeail,fb,ig, everything losing my phone and having to change numbers it sends a text to my old number. I dnt want the data just a hard reset and get around frp.
Is it really fair to account for accretion and depreciation as expenses since these aren't real cash expenses? In accounting, an accretion expense is a periodic expense recognized when updating the present value of a balance sheet liability, which has arisen from a company's obligation to perform a duty in the future, and is being measured by using a discounted cash flows ("DCF") approach. Can't accretion and depreciation values be written off for tax purpose accounting to reduce taxes and therefore when you count the whole amount you're artificially inflating the true expense because in reality they would be getting tax credits for a percentage of these expenses? If you discount depreciation and accretion the company is already profitable is it not since these two expenses account for 2.6 million alone for this quarter?
Did you notice how last year they claimed no expenses for depreciation but this year they claimed $958,419? That's because it wouldn't have been worthwhile because they made no money. Now that they have a decent income stream they're claiming it for tax purposes. How does your analysis work out if we do reasonable assumptions for these expenses like a percentage discount on them?
Also accretion would go down over time as the Sprott stream agreement gets repaid that's why it was 2.2m last year and 1.6m this year. Maybe we should use a linear interpolation to reduce it over time going forward using these numbers? I think it's down to 30m now from 40m originally owed.
@@SPJ4529 yes, maybe it shouldn't be added, but still they would be break even.
@@katchum Have you seen the comments on CEO about the 43-101 and grade deposits? What happens if we assume grade ramps up overtime and goes up to a conservative 2.5% by Q4 now that lower levels will be accessible that have grades between 2.5-3%? It looks like we should have already been in the higher grade deposits by now but the pump failure set the plan back a few months it looks like if I'm not mistaken.
With the Safi Silver spinout at any time and the additional shares granted to existing shareholders during that it almost seems like now is the ideal time to be a shareholder if we're about to hit higher grade deposits. If I remember correctly Jed has announced in the Atrium research interview today that the mill expansion will be paid for with debt similar to the pump failure where they pay it back in copper concentrate. With no talk of dilution currently, looks like a decent opportunity with share prices so low. I think I could possibly be too optimistic though so I'd rather ask the opinion of someone such as yourself that is more pessimistic/realistic in their views.
What do you think about Majestic gold? They have allot of cash and low EV
I like it if gold doesn't go up. But we know gold goes up so I want a gold miner with more leverage. Majestic has no leverage to gold.
Thank you for information
sold on 0.79 and on friday it closes on 0.70. Stock seems to definately getting a new valuation after this report.
Thanks for your great overview of silver and gold miners. Similar to what you do, I also started to use NPV models in an excel file to calculate the upwards potential of a miner. It would be interesting to learn from you (in another video?) how exactly you calculate the cum. NPV value. E.g. what are the input parameters and the formulas that you use? Do you use e.g. the rate of inflation as one of the parameters? How do you determine the value of the discount rate for a miner, etc. etc. Thanks in advance!
Rate of inflation would be interesting new parameter. It makes everything too complex though.
Great piece of work, thanks a lot
Thank you for the update on Trigon earnings. I agree with tonyperrotti below. The company is proving its mines at this point and ramping up production. If you subtract out the $2.1M for "Change in fair value of warrant liability" and "Accretion expenses" from the earnings report, they are basically operating at breakeven. Yes, they do need more cash, but every company starting a new mine needs more cash. You probably need to add something to your model for cash needed on the front end of a project. You apply a discount rate for cash generated after the project is complete. However, the cost of raising cash on the front end is usually very high. There is often expensive dilution with warrants, selling off streams of future production, and high interest debt. I am not sure exactly how to account for the cost of capital, but at the very least, I would assume dilution at half the current share price.
@ ~ 28:00 On the q2 call Jed the CEO said they spent money on post-mill equipment in the restart of the mine, but the mills themselves (there's three in a picture they included in the PR) will be replaced in order to get to their 2k/tpd target.
Yes, that'll cost some capex.
Just noticed watching at around 18:00 that they have a requirement to get to 900 tpd mined for 30 consecutive days by October 31 2025 otherwise they need to repay the remaining of some agreement they made with Sprott. Probably doable, I think they're at ~600tpd from underground now but it is something to keep in mind. Pressure is on and all that.
Yes, that will be difficult, so some debt could come into play.
@@katchum I just asked them on the conference call, they said they 'will acheive that within the fiscal (?) period of 2025'. No other details from what I hear on my recording.
@@thomasbayer1843 Does that $1,594,086 accretion expense go down significantly if that happens?
thx for update
You have to wait for the mill expansion .. They will do a raise at some point. ZERO DEBT SO ZERO CHANCE OF BANKRUPTCY. figure 100 million shares outstanding at $5 to $7 copper by end of the decade. Stock will still 10x even if they double their share count .. The company needs capital .
Yes, I'll wait on the sidelines until mill is expanded.
Serabi looks interesting, any thoughts about the lack of insider ownership?
I have no explanation for that other than Fratelli being a long term shareholder and another institution greenstone endorsement.
What a great summary of all the mining company valuations!
Love it . good overview of all the miners and you changed your mind about LUCA also good I'm at 2.5 x on that play .
Great breakdown!
what would be interesting to know is that EV/CF models you have on a bunch of gold stocks, if you would check the ETFs Gold miners and gold miners jr. and some gold funds (Like AuAg Bullet) and the gold stocks they have and the weight they have in the different stocks, which one is the best from your CF/EV that is.
First Majestic is on top of AuAg fund, they can't be serious.
@@katchum aren't most funds like that have crappy expensive stocks? Thing is on my pension I can only select funds or ETf, so would b good to know what ETF or fund is best value, I just have Gold miners ETF at the moment and some none gold etfs
@@Lukky_Luke Interesting idea. I will need a list of funds, then I can just multiply the allocations with my upside and there we have it.
@@katchum Here are the ones I can choose from anyway, might be more but most search engines don't have precious metals as a search alternative (so used words like gold to find): ETFS: L&G Gold Mining UCITS ETF - USD Acc Amundi NYSE Arca Gold BUGS UCITS ETF Dist HANetf AuAg ESG Gold Mining UCITS ETF - Acc iShares Gold Producers UCITS ETF USD (Acc) VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF VanEck Junior Gold Miners UCITS ETF Funds: Franklin Gold & Prec Mtls A(acc)USD BGF World Gold A2 Invesco Gold & Special Mirls A USD Acc AuAg Silver Bullet B
Albert have you double counted elements of the capex from the project financing in the presentation deck? Also this recent research report from the house broker might be of interest research.hannam.partners/#/code/company/Osisko%20Development
Great chart, thanks
Omg I was about to go the garage and then saw hour video. Thanks bro
Fun number shuffling but there is more to valuations and than just "fair value" based on DCF models and FCF yields. Certain issuers deserve a higher multiple. Certain issuers deserve a lower multiple. Both to net present value and free cash flow. These kinds of charts can be useful for indicative purposes but they are a poor substitute for deeper, more qualitative due diligence. There's a very good reason why the higher quality issuers tend to be on the left side of the chart. I certainly couldn't say with a straight face that Agnico is overvalued by a factor of two.
You have a great set of gold miner valuations. But an obvious flaw I can see is that you always use the same discount rate of 10%. Whereas obviously companies all have different costs of capital, execution risks, jurisdiction, scale, diversification, etc. So it might also be interesting to do a similar exercise to find out what discounts the market is assigning?
The discounts they are assigning is basically given in the upside chart.
Why is steppe gold so cheap? Seems like it has good leverage to Gold on your charts too?
@@kyler565 I don't know, maybe because people don't like Mongolia. Also, we still need to wait 2 years before production. Typical Lassonde curve to commissioning.
@@katchumHave you looked at Erdene? Also in Mongolia, and production due a bit sooner I think. They also have an important partnership with a big local engineering company, which reduces execution risk. And a lot of explo upside.
@@katchum , with Boroo, they have production right now. According to the presentation, Boroo made $51M in 2023, but they did say that would be lower this year. They also have a $2000 hedge through 2024.
I was looking through my old stuff and found my old iPad and wanted to see if it had any old pictures and etc.. and nothing I tried worked but this was like magic thanks 😊
Thanks for sharing.
Analysis for Atlas lithium now please? 😊
Lithium is as dead as a dodo, atlas has no upside.
@@katchum I know it’s not profitable right now but wont it go up once they start producing it? I thought lithium was the “future oil” lol. I’m bummed because I just invested in Atlas and it’s going down
@@loganm2766 Apparently, supply is going to be higher than demand for many years. You can hope that it changes, but I rather get into a sector that is more profitable.
@@katchum Any recommendations? I’m a new investor and don’t know what to look for
@@loganm2766 Try to make an NPV flow chart for every investment you make. See my: Sung's method for gold mining valuations video.