Video

25:00 If you look historically on unemployment rate and silver price, silver price have gone up a lot together with gold. Why do you think it's different now? I know silver is industrial but still it's 50% as gold. December 2009 Usa topped in unemployment at 9%. Silver then topped at 18 usd and the following years it went sky high close to 50 usd. And gold went from 900 to 1700 during the same time period. Thanks for the video

20:00 I like Tin because it's heavily ignored, and since we got into the electronic age we have consumed a lot of the Tin that was in the warehouses. It's the soldering that consume so much and only thing to replace it with would be silver. Only problem is there isn't any Tin mine stocks to buy except Alphamin which is in a very dangerous country and the stock price is already to high.

Another great summary of gold fundamentals. Thanks!

77292 Legros Port

Not work bro😢😢

I have given up on Soma after that dreadful Q2 earnings report. Gold averaged $2338 in Q2, and Soma could not even make a profit. The mine seems to have self destructed with low production and costs through the roof. They are not meeting any of their growth goals either. Everything is getting pushed out. Just one year ago, the promised investors 47k ounces in 2024. Now they are expecting 32.5k ounces. What a disaster. Management cannot even come close to keeping their promises even with the price of gold cooperating. They also seem to have put the mill expansion on hold. From the PR: "We are optimistic that these discoveries can lead to an increase in mineable resources, enhancing the feed for our two mills and possibly justifying the fully permitted mill expansion.”" As for the grades improving, last quarter they said the grades would improve in the 2nd half. Now they are saying 4th quarter. I think there is a good chance that the new mining method they are using is simply not working. Always beware when any company says they need to change the mining method.

How about Mineros S.A (MSA.TO)? 336M market cap (fairly small) which pays a dividend.

What do you think about latest Soma results?

Thanks

My three FAV's are MSA GSVR & LUCA........feel free to disagree !

Have a look..Q1 2024 Highlights GSVR shares at .25 silver at $30 rated in AGEq one Million oz/quarter Record metals production during the quarter of 987,312 AgEq (silver equivalent) was up 16% over the previous quarter; AgEq ounces derived from 428,279 ounces of silver; 5,384 ounces of gold; 879,242 pounds of lead; and 922,297 pounds of zinc (see footnote to table below for assumptions regarding the calculation of silver equivalents).

Albert trial started today still in?

What if it dont work? Im just tinkering. Got the red line and i think this worked before. I out blac tape on one side and it worked for a while. I remeber this working once before. I think my charge port is our or my battery is dead. Ipad mini 2. Omfg it came on as i was typing this gtfoh. Wtf? Bruh can you help me get into an s20fe? I lost access t my emeail,fb,ig, everything losing my phone and having to change numbers it sends a text to my old number. I dnt want the data just a hard reset and get around frp.

Is it really fair to account for accretion and depreciation as expenses since these aren't real cash expenses? In accounting, an accretion expense is a periodic expense recognized when updating the present value of a balance sheet liability, which has arisen from a company's obligation to perform a duty in the future, and is being measured by using a discounted cash flows ("DCF") approach. Can't accretion and depreciation values be written off for tax purpose accounting to reduce taxes and therefore when you count the whole amount you're artificially inflating the true expense because in reality they would be getting tax credits for a percentage of these expenses? If you discount depreciation and accretion the company is already profitable is it not since these two expenses account for 2.6 million alone for this quarter?

What do you think about Majestic gold? They have allot of cash and low EV

Thank you for information

sold on 0.79 and on friday it closes on 0.70. Stock seems to definately getting a new valuation after this report.

Thanks for your great overview of silver and gold miners. Similar to what you do, I also started to use NPV models in an excel file to calculate the upwards potential of a miner. It would be interesting to learn from you (in another video?) how exactly you calculate the cum. NPV value. E.g. what are the input parameters and the formulas that you use? Do you use e.g. the rate of inflation as one of the parameters? How do you determine the value of the discount rate for a miner, etc. etc. Thanks in advance!

Great piece of work, thanks a lot

Thank you for the update on Trigon earnings. I agree with tonyperrotti below. The company is proving its mines at this point and ramping up production. If you subtract out the $2.1M for "Change in fair value of warrant liability" and "Accretion expenses" from the earnings report, they are basically operating at breakeven. Yes, they do need more cash, but every company starting a new mine needs more cash. You probably need to add something to your model for cash needed on the front end of a project. You apply a discount rate for cash generated after the project is complete. However, the cost of raising cash on the front end is usually very high. There is often expensive dilution with warrants, selling off streams of future production, and high interest debt. I am not sure exactly how to account for the cost of capital, but at the very least, I would assume dilution at half the current share price.

@ ~ 28:00 On the q2 call Jed the CEO said they spent money on post-mill equipment in the restart of the mine, but the mills themselves (there's three in a picture they included in the PR) will be replaced in order to get to their 2k/tpd target.

Just noticed watching at around 18:00 that they have a requirement to get to 900 tpd mined for 30 consecutive days by October 31 2025 otherwise they need to repay the remaining of some agreement they made with Sprott. Probably doable, I think they're at ~600tpd from underground now but it is something to keep in mind. Pressure is on and all that.

thx for update

You have to wait for the mill expansion .. They will do a raise at some point. ZERO DEBT SO ZERO CHANCE OF BANKRUPTCY. figure 100 million shares outstanding at $5 to $7 copper by end of the decade. Stock will still 10x even if they double their share count .. The company needs capital .

Serabi looks interesting, any thoughts about the lack of insider ownership?

What a great summary of all the mining company valuations!

Love it . good overview of all the miners and you changed your mind about LUCA also good I'm at 2.5 x on that play .

Great breakdown!

what would be interesting to know is that EV/CF models you have on a bunch of gold stocks, if you would check the ETFs Gold miners and gold miners jr. and some gold funds (Like AuAg Bullet) and the gold stocks they have and the weight they have in the different stocks, which one is the best from your CF/EV that is.

Albert have you double counted elements of the capex from the project financing in the presentation deck? Also this recent research report from the house broker might be of interest research.hannam.partners/#/code/company/Osisko%20Development

Great chart, thanks

Omg I was about to go the garage and then saw hour video. Thanks bro

Fun number shuffling but there is more to valuations and than just "fair value" based on DCF models and FCF yields. Certain issuers deserve a higher multiple. Certain issuers deserve a lower multiple. Both to net present value and free cash flow. These kinds of charts can be useful for indicative purposes but they are a poor substitute for deeper, more qualitative due diligence. There's a very good reason why the higher quality issuers tend to be on the left side of the chart. I certainly couldn't say with a straight face that Agnico is overvalued by a factor of two.

You have a great set of gold miner valuations. But an obvious flaw I can see is that you always use the same discount rate of 10%. Whereas obviously companies all have different costs of capital, execution risks, jurisdiction, scale, diversification, etc. So it might also be interesting to do a similar exercise to find out what discounts the market is assigning?

I was looking through my old stuff and found my old iPad and wanted to see if it had any old pictures and etc.. and nothing I tried worked but this was like magic thanks 😊

Thanks for sharing.

Analysis for Atlas lithium now please? 😊