Wayne Vernon
Wayne Vernon
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Monetary Effects in Trade Imbalances
Do trade imbalances affect monetary aggregates in surplus countries? Lets Explorer.
Skip to 7:11 to avoid extreme wonkishness.
zhlédnutí: 977

Video

James Galbraith - The ignorance of the Political Class.
zhlédnutí 541Před 7 lety
Years later, and James Galbraith's deadpan stills cracks me up! =P
Flow of Money - Foreign Exchange
zhlédnutí 5KPřed 7 lety
How international payments occur. How foreign currency exchange works.
Savings Equals Investment: Reconciling Endogenous Money Theory
zhlédnutí 3,6KPřed 7 lety
Which comes first, savings, or loans? Reconciling Endogenous Money Theory with the accounting identity Savings = Investment.
Politics - Blah Blah Blah
zhlédnutí 1KPřed 8 lety
My personal perspective on the differences, strengths and weaknesses of Progressive and Conservative thought.
Flow of Money - Inequality
zhlédnutí 975Před 8 lety
How income and wealth inequality affect the macro economy.
Flow of Money - Revisited
zhlédnutí 4,1KPřed 8 lety
Shorter more concise examination of my flow of funds diagram. CORRECTIONS & AMPLIFICATIONS: 1) Thanks to Giovanni Rosado for finding the current data on Marginal Propensities to Save per income bracket. It seems I may have overestimated some groups propensity. Here are the finding: "...median savings rates rate rising significantly from 1 percent for households in the bottom quintile, to 24 per...
Flow of Money - How Banks Create Money
zhlédnutí 4,7KPřed 8 lety
How banks create money...
Flow of Money - Treasury & Federal Reserve
zhlédnutí 32KPřed 8 lety
The relationship between The Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Revised from original. CHALLENGE QUESTIONS: 1) What are the only two financial monetary transactions that directly increase aggregate demand? 2) What is the difference between Treasury selling bonds into the market, and The Fed selling bonds into the market? 3) The national debt is the liabilities of Treasury, but if we consolidate ...
Flow of Money - Payment System
zhlédnutí 49KPřed 8 lety
How the Domestic & International payment system works. Revised from original version. *Challenge Question:* 1) Is it possible for banks to "lend out" reserves? *Terms:* Fedwire - a wire transfer service offered by the US Federal Reserve that debits and credits member bank accounts. Clearinghouse Interbank Payments System (CHIPS) - a private clearinghouse that accumulates daily transactions from...
Flow of Money - Fed Funds Market
zhlédnutí 4,8KPřed 8 lety
SUMMARY: What is the Federal Funds Market? How does The Federal Reserve set interest rates? CHALLENGE QUESTIONS: 1) If the Fed Funds Rate has been pushed to zero, and The Fed is supporting the rate by paying interest on reserves, what is the difference between a 1-Year Treasury at 0.25%, and a 1-Year Reserve Deposit at 0.25%? 2) If Treasury only printed money and drove the Fed Funds rate to a p...
Flow of Money - Sectoral Balances
zhlédnutí 6KPřed 8 lety
The National Debt = The National Savings (and foreign dollar savings) Sectoral Balances is an accounting identity first proposed by British economist Wynne Godley. The identity is meant to illustrate the flow of funds by examining the net position over time between the Domestic Private Sector (I - S), the Government Sector (G - T), and the foreign sector (X - M). If any sector runs a deficit, t...
Flow of Money - Fiscal & Monetary Stimulus
zhlédnutí 1,3KPřed 9 lety
Fiscal Stimulus - Welfare Transfers - Federal Funds Rate - Quantitative Easing
Flow of Money - Why Keynes was right - Why QE doesn't cause inflation
zhlédnutí 7KPřed 9 lety
How money flows in the domestic economy. Why Keynes was right. Why QE doesn't cause inflation. There are two basic pathways for money - Savings and Consumption. Banks are the intermediaries in the exchange between consumption and savings. The rate that savings is converted into consumption is determined by the level of borrowing by households, companies, and government. Since borrowing reflects...

Komentáře

  • @962now
    @962now Před 2 dny

    in this case, what would happen if banks have to settle with reserves while fed still has no asset on its balance sheet?

  • @bf7840
    @bf7840 Před 5 dny

    Where do source the data from? Flow of Funds report from the FED or GDP report from BEA? they seem to offer different numbers for Government and taxes. Do you have a video showing how you pull the data? Hope you still check your comments looks like it has been a few years.. Anyway great videos!

  • @karlthomas547
    @karlthomas547 Před měsícem

    This is super important to know. The American public needs to know this in order to clear the national debt and to not have such an issue with poverty. Everyone should be balancing their books like this because this is money of account, not of substance. Thank you for this video.

    • @Vose1919
      @Vose1919 Před 23 dny

      If you look at the second "treasury & Federal Reserve" balance sheet, clearing the "debt" ($6500 at the bottom) would mean taking every penny (notes and coins, and every reserve account at every national bank) out of the system. "Debt" is a terrible way to describe the money the US government has spent. Also I'm not the only person getting recommended this video from 9 years ago hah!

  • @bertiefigueres
    @bertiefigueres Před měsícem

    Sorry Wayne. You made a mistake. At around 2:40 you make a critical mistake. The Treasury issues bonds which are bought by the market. When the Fed buys them, the Treasury still owes the owners, the Fed in this case. The Fed may or may not be paying back the coupons, but the Treasury still owes the Fed the face value of the bond. So the Treasury still owes money to the Fed. Crucial mistake there on you part. You also don't make clear that the bonds were mostly bought at a premium to face value, so there will be a loss when they expire. So if the Fed paid $200 for the bond, and when it expires it pays back $100 face value, you have a loss. The Fed will not be getting back the full amount of money they paid for the bonds when they expire. So who foots that bill? Treasury, right? So sooner or later the Treasury needs to pay the Fed for those loses. You conveniently forgot to mention this hanging liability.

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před měsícem

      Hey @bertiefigueres Thank you for the intelligent comment! Here is my response: *_the Treasury still owes the owners, the Fed in this case_* I mention that the Fed rolls over principle payments from Treasury, which is true, but it is a fair point that probably deserves an entry in the description. Under normal operations, The Fed _does_ roll-over treasury debt automatically, but this is decision of monetary policy; there is no legal requirement that they roll-over principle. Why does the Fed do this? Because a Treasury principle payment to the CB would represent a reserve drain on the system, which is no different from standard monetary policy of buying and selling Treasuries. The Fed rolls over principle, because if they didn't, they just have to purchase the same Treasuries in the secondary market. When would the Fed decide to _not_ roll-over Treasury debt? During a tightening cycle the Fed may decide to allow treasury debt to expire with the explicit purpose of draining reserves from the system. Of course, they could also drain reserves by selling treasury debt to the market, but this is exactly the same result as not rolling over principle. It is six-of-one-half-dozen-of-another. Here is a link describing the roll-over facility at the New York Fed. www.newyorkfed.org/markets/treasury-rollover-faq _* So who foots that bill? Treasury, right?*_ The Fed doesn't always make a profit on its operations, especially during turbulent times (GFC, Covid), but lets examine the data. Does the Fed ever post a loss to Treasury? www.statista.com/statistics/1386557/federal-reserve-earnings-remittances-to-treasury/#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Reserve's%20earnings%20remittances,percent%20lower%20than%20in%202021. Great comment! I'll add your name to the description and post a clarification on roll-over operations. -Wayne

    • @bertiefigueres
      @bertiefigueres Před měsícem

      Thanks@@TheBalancedAmerican . The only other note I would make on second viewing your video, at about 1:20, you created money by creating an $100 Asset and a $100 Liability. This type of money is broad money (accounting money). Technically I am referring to broad money less narrow money, so let's just call it Credit for short. I think the US technical for this is M2 less M0, I think. So you created Credit. Credit doesn't increase the bank's Net Assets because the Asset cancels out the Liability. Credit only lives in the accounting system where it is created. If one bank wishes to transfer money to another bank, they need to do it by converting the broad money (Credit in the system) into narrow money (notes, coins and reserves only) and then doing the transfer that way. This automatic transfer from Money to Credit and back again is a very common operation for banks to perform. It's what they do. You are well aware of making a deposit at the bank. You walk in to your branch with $100 note (narrow money), hand it over to the cashier, who Credits your account and then pops the $100 in their cash draw. They have just silently converted your $100 actual money (narrow money), into a $100 Credit in the system. The money itself, the $100 note, now belongs to the bank. The Credit in their accounting system is purely electronic accounting money, not notes and coins you can actually touch (narrow money). They do the automatic swap when you withdraw Credit as well, where they reduce the credit in your account and hand you a $100 note (narrow money) out of their drawer. Now that we understand narrow money and Credit (broad money), I would mention that as I understand it, the QE money created is narrow money. The money you created in your video is broad money (Credit). They are not the same thing. It may be a technicality, but technically a dog is not a cat, and I am sure you would agree the two animals are quite different. MMT, as I understand it, asserts that the government "spends into existence" money. To me, that means narrow money, because broad money is created by creating an Asset and a Liability. The Asset, the money, is linked to a corresponding Liability. So if the government is relying on broad money for the "spend into existence", they are in actual fact just "borrowing to spend" because of the corresponding Liability associated with broad money. By the way, I like the way you presented your T-Accounts in your video. They come out very nice, and it makes it clear to see what you are getting at. If you wish to get back to me on an easier platform for chatting, you can find me on X/Twitter and on Mastodon at @BertieFigueres.

  • @jamessaxony
    @jamessaxony Před 2 měsíci

    Hope all is well, Wayne. Would love to see more of your videos - maybe interbank (central bank) swaps? It's also great to see how you give detailed explanations to questions posted by your viewers. Fantastic stuff. You've definitely helped improved our understanding about Capital Flows.

  • @w8what575
    @w8what575 Před 2 měsíci

    Kind of makes it make sense why utility companies no longer accept cash as a payment lol…they want it all through bank transfer…which wouldn’t cause more national debt via money printing if it’s simply transferred on a balance sheet…the fed is a privately owned bank and not the treasury dept…we are using a foreign currency honestly because it’s owned and printed by a privately owned bank

  • @w8what575
    @w8what575 Před 2 měsíci

    What gives the t bill value that the fed will hand out paper money for? Ur signature! It’s what creates value! And u don’t need the fed to pay bills! This is what the accepted for value process does….u give them the value by accepting the transaction from u to them it not creating anymore paper money to owe a debt on

  • @zonnins8960
    @zonnins8960 Před 3 měsíci

    The example you have about money printing is wrong. The Fed never participates in Treasury auctions. The Fed purchasing treasuries would never impact the Treasury’s TGA account. QE creates money because it purchases treasuries through PDs from non-banks.

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před 3 měsíci

      Hi zonnins, thanks for comment. here is my response: *_"The example you have about money printing is wrong."_* The accounting i present in my videos has been peer reviewed multiple times. I make some presentation errors sometimes, but nothing related to what you mention here. If you can point to a specific mistake i've made, i'd be happy to issue a correction and credit you for the finding. *_"The Fed never participates in Treasury auctions"_* The video doesn't show the fed buying directly from Treasury, it shows the fed buying from banks in the secondary market. *_"The Fed purchasing treasuries would never impact the Treasury’s TGA account"_* The Fed does not _'directly'_ impact the Treasury's TGA account (other than remittance), but it certainly affects it indirectly. Surely you recognize that every reserve held in TGA is a liability of The Fed? Moreover, the fed targets an interest rate...if treasury borrowing begins to affect the interbank rate, the Fed will supply whatever quantity of reserves is needed to maintain its target rate. In this context, the Treasury is no different from a Bank, neither is reserve constrained, and monetary policy acts on the margin. I explain this in my Federal Funds video if you're interested. *_"QE creates money because it purchases treasuries through PDs from non-banks."_* QE purchased a lot more than just treasuries, but that fact doesn't change much. QE changed the aggregate saving portfolio of the financial sector by increasing dollar liquidity, and reducing savings assets circulated. How do these actions affect prices? It will have very little affect on broad-based prices because monetary policy targets savers, not consumers. Prices of financial assets are likely to rise as a result of QE (which we saw), whereas prices of real good and services will remain largely unaffected (we saw this too). Monetary policy affects broad-based prices through the investment/borrowing channel.. I.e. companies or consumers need to borrow to purchase real goods and services in order for financial markets to affect the price of real goods and services. So, the Fed lowers rates to make borrowing cheaper...encouraging real investment and consumption. What happens if the rate has been pushed to zero (which QE did), and people still aren't' borrowing? At that stage, the quantity of reserves produced will have no affect real prices. When the target rate reached zero, the Fed began paying interest on reserves to support its target rate. What is the difference between a reserve balance earning 0.25%, and a treasuries balance earning 0.25%? Nothing, they are both highly liquid cash equivalents earning the same rate. So no amount of swapping one for the other (monetary policy) will affect the broader market. This why Keynes called it "pushing on a string". Hope this clarifies some things. Thanks! -Wayne

  • @damackay75
    @damackay75 Před 3 měsíci

    The Federal Reserve also gets to deduct it's costs (labor payroll, etc...) from the money it "sweeps" back to Treasury, right?

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před 3 měsíci

      That is correct, although I’m not sure why that is significant. If employees weren’t paid by the Fed, they’d be paid by Treasury. Paying directly from operations saves a bit of bureaucratic process.

  • @muskduh
    @muskduh Před 8 měsíci

    Thanks so much.

  • @young_rich
    @young_rich Před 8 měsíci

    Quick question: your video starts with Treasury selling a bond (Tbill) to Wellsfargo first, and then Fed buys it back from Wells fargo to “print money” and give to treasury. Why can’t Treasury just directly sell the bond to Fed?? Just one transaction and boom. Money is printed.

    • @young_rich
      @young_rich Před měsícem

      Can someone please answer? Or Wayne please help me bro! I really loved your video ❤

  • @letsgetfit8599
    @letsgetfit8599 Před 8 měsíci

    I really appreciate this video. A LOT! Plz don’t ever take this down :)

  • @stevengordon1424
    @stevengordon1424 Před 9 měsíci

    Does anyone know what happened to Wayne? I love his explanations, but the most recent videos here are years old.

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před 11 měsíci

    I don't understand one thing wayne as you say... primary dealers first buy government them right? Then they resell it to thier clients? As most of treasury debt is buyed by primary dealers from where they get money in first place even before they get money from clients? Do you have any idea? I hope you understand my question!

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Wayne you said treasury debt held by fed doesn't count as fed roll over the principal and pay back interest to treasury but as we can see QT is going on that debt does matter as fed is running off its balance sheet instead of rolling over.

  • @KyriosHeptagrammaton

    Isn't the MMT view kinda tautological? Like if you assume Securities are Deposits then they are the same thing? But wouldn't that fall apart if something happened to the securities? Like the Federal reserve/ treasury decided not to buy them back? I don't know much about this stuff at all, so hopefully I used the right terms.

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Wayne you have so good understanding wish you make videos on how liquidity get sucked out from system through government defecit...debt ceiling has been raised and government issuing lot of debt and sucking liquidity out of system is hot topic on twitter these days.

  • @IllIl
    @IllIl Před rokem

    When the Fed increased banks liquidity during QE, why did banks not start offering lower interest rates to households and companies? Was it because the banks had investment divisions which sought greater returns by investing the cash rather than loaning it out for lower rates?

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před rokem

      The Fed pushed the federal funds rate to near zero, which did result in lower loans rates from banks. During QE the Fed also targeted the long side of the yield curve (which it never does) in order to try to push mortgage rates lower. But what happens if rates have been pushed as low as possible and people still aren’t borrowing? At that point the quantity of reserves in the system no longer influences the lending rate. So central banks began to try more controversial options. In Europe, they experimented with _negative_ interest rates, with limited results. The incentives for banks and borrowers in a negative interest rate environment never made sense to me, so I can’t explain we’ll what the goal of that policy was. If you’d like to learn more about negative interest rates, I’d suggest reading some articles from Miles Kimball, “Confessions of a supply side liberal” blog. Prof Kimball understands negative rates much better than me. Thanks for the interest! -Wayne

    • @IllIl
      @IllIl Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican Thanks a lot for your reply, Wayne! Much appreciated and makes sense. I've been going deep into this stuff recently and rewatching your videos in-between reading. They've really been invaluable, thanks :) _psst, release more videos please! haha_

    • @himanshisingla1031
      @himanshisingla1031 Před rokem

      ​@TheBalancedAmerican wayne does qe creates our money (deposits) to spend in real economy? And does qt destroying deposit too?

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican Wayne if you upload more videos please explain money market in it and repo market and how QE influence asset prices most...

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před 11 měsíci

      @@TheBalancedAmerican in theory wayne QE monetized government debt too...as we saw with fiscal driven inflation.What is difference between 2008 and 2020 QE...in 2008 existing IOUS we're saved...in 2020 government produced debt more IOUS with more money printing...so inflation.Hope you doing good!

  • @thingsnotseen
    @thingsnotseen Před rokem

    Amazing video! Would you be able to provide sources/citations for any of those balance sheet operations?

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Wayne don't you think this video now needs repo and reverse repo market too.

  • @marjorielloydwaluye6338

    its all a big scam.. thanks for explaining.

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Hello wayne,do you think QE is just asset swap with banks.Fed just takes bonds from banks and give them reserves? But most of the bonds are held by non-banks doesn't it create real world spendable money when fed buys from non-banks bonds??

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Wayne isn't it funny if all banks create deposit at same pace in any sector let's say agriculture they don't need reserves at all!!!

  • @g1giuseppe
    @g1giuseppe Před rokem

    Hi Wayne. I really enjoy your videos and appreciate you taking the time to educate all of us out here. Have you given any thoughts to making a video explaining the "Debt Ceiling" debate using the same format you used here? Thank you

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Hello wayne somewhere you said that in 2008 interbank loans we're cause of crisis and fed rescued as lender of last resort.But as much i came through in 2008 main cause was mortgage market so i don't understand what you mean? Can you elaborate a little please.

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    hello wayne i don't understand how you say government defecit is debt free money for private sector..isn't it is coming from already saved money of private sector with which they buying bonds?how it is new money they took out from priva te sector and re-distribut ed it just??Debt free money for priva te sector will be when fed buys tha t debt and prin ts money tha t will be distribu ted by treasury.

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před rokem

      These are great questions. _”how is gov deficit debt free money for the private sector?”_ This is related to the concept of “net financial assets.” The only way to achieve a net financial asset is to trade a real good/service for money (whatever form). This is true of foreign trade and domestic trade. When China runs a surplus against USA, they are accumulating “net financial assets” denominated in dollars. When the domestic private sector runs a surplus against gov (shown as gov deficit), the private sector accumulates “net financial assets.” How is this different from private money being created by banks? When a bank creates money it adds a loan asset and some deposits. Both this loan and deposits are owned by the private sector…so if the loan is held to maturity, deposits will decline back to zero as well. This is a net zero affect over the long run. Not true with money created by an external sector (gov in this case). If all private loans were paid off, and all private money were destroyed, what would be left? The “net financial assets” of the private sector, ie the money that is debt-free to the private sector. Your questions are offered in the context of a monetarist view of the system. This is the first view I offered in the Treasury/Fed video. Many economists hold this view, and it may be correct, but I believe it is inconsistent. I subscribe to the endogenous theory of money, which sees these complex interactions a bit differently. Why do I say the monetarists/neoclassical perspective is consistent? Monetarists recognize that private loan creation is related to inflation. This why they try to control inflation by controlling the base interest rate. Yet, at the same time they will say that gov deficits are not inflationary because money is recirculated from an existing stock of money. This is inconsistent because gov deficits grow the total size of economy’s balance sheet the same way that private deficits do. Why are private deficits inflationary, but gov deficits aren’t? Makes no sense to me. This inconsistency in their perspective is one reason they get policy wrong. When most of the mainstream ideas were formed, gov spending was a small part of total GDP. In this world of private sector dominance, adjusting the interest rate can be very effective, since private entities are sensitive to prices. Any actions taken by Treasury will have a small impact, perhaps unnoticeable. The world today is very different. Gov spending has grown to 40% of GDP. Treasury is not sensitive to interest rates, and will continue to spend regardless of financial conditions. This greatly changes the outcomes of interest rate policy. In a world of fiscal dominance, rising interest rates may cause inflation to rise (the exact opposite of what policy makers believe). I basically agree with Warren Moslers neofisherian view, but I believe it follows a bell curve, like most things. In my models, in a world of fiscal dominance, rising interest rates will increase inflation until it causes extreme damage to the private sector. So interest rate policy on the short tail is inflationary, and deflationary in the long tail. It amazes me policy makers consider these relationships linear. What are they thinking?!

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican And this is interesting to how MMT has convinced us that it is more great to get debt with ourself and pay interest to ourselves instead of saving or god forbid spend.

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican Hello Wayne can you help in knowing how government created deposited get destroyed when government pays off its debt? Is it possible?

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Wayne in real world BOFA will have reserves that's why they could settle with wells fargo and they don't need reserves now to cover deposit of wells fargo...so already held reserves by BofA funded this loan not the other way around! Yes this is money multiplier effect and loan creation is just for deposit making.(Your wording is wrong in saying car dealer deposit funded this loan you should have said already held reserves/money funded this loan deposit can't fund deposit)

  • @brianthornton6269
    @brianthornton6269 Před rokem

    Thank you

  • @AUSTurner
    @AUSTurner Před rokem

    Thank you. This is the best explanation of the flow of money I have seen. Amazing.

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    so wayne i read your gold standard article.So you saying bank is modern world intermediary...so they give us deposit as asset and and take home as collateral...i don't understand why we have to give our home as collateral to bank if they just giving us debt aka deposit....why we can't do this our own because people don't trust each other money or just fiat is accepted everywhere i suppose that is why...i just don't understand why bank take our asset as collateral if they just giving us deposit aka debt lol...banking looks like very profitable business....my question is just that if bank is just giving as debt instrument to exchange between us why they take collateral from us for whose safety??

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před rokem

      I’ve always found this a rather favorable deal for the bank as well. The argument would be, the bank is responsible for the deposits because it must ultimately fund the deposits with currency. Although considering bank funding is virtually guaranteed by the system, it seems unfair the bank would be able to acquire the property at default with such little risk. At its best, modern banking is a really prudent way to bind money creation to the productive effort of the borrower. At its worst, modern finance can be parasitic and exploitative.

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican Wayne i really wanna say thanks to you for these videos and even comments under it you have answered (i read them all) it has enchanced my knowledge of monetary and fiscal system greatly.Thanks again!I will say credit creation is dangerous too. Especially from the perspective of derivative trading these days 0DTE options are very popular and if you see twitter many earning good money from 0DTE too from chart trading but then these so called forex trading platform provides already 500x leverage too.Like this credit creation is mostly not going too productive purposes but leverage trading things...so much leveraged is system.

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican Wayne since you said bank funding is virtually guaranteed by system i wonder what are all ways through which bank funding is virtually guaranteed by system? 1) interbank market ( i.e. money market as much i know) 2) discount window 3) in crisis by federal reserve ( so when in crisis federal reserve give temporary liquidity to system or banks) is it free or banks have to pay it back to fed?

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican here goes silicon valley bank wayne...banks can actually fail...and fed won't save them.

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před rokem

      ​@@shubhamsingla9340 Yes! The fed will not lend to an insolvent bank, unless it would be catastrophic to the system. I speak briefly about how banks go down in the Federal Funds Market video. In 2007, Fed allowed Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns to fail before it start lending to insolvent banks. During that crisis, the Fed ended up buying many of the bad assets on the books of insolvent banks. I believe those bad assets are still on the Fed's balance sheet! (see Maiden Lane Transactions). So what is happening with SVB? Although it is still early, it looks like they are getting the double-whammy...collapsing asset values, and a run on their deposits. Best guess, SVB was over-exposed to bonds issued by Tech companies, which have been going bust left and right lately. Word got out that they had a bunch of non-performing assets, and so investors started moving their uninsured deposits to other banks. How does SVG respond to everyone moving their deposits? It needs to convert one payable ('deposits') to another ('fed funds loan')...only this time, other banks wouldn't lend to them! Their assets are non-performing. Can't sell their assets, can't get a loan, and all the bank's capital is chewed up, its over for them!

  • @matveyshishov
    @matveyshishov Před rokem

    It is always fascinating how the best videos on YT have a few thousands of views in years, while the lowbrow stuff accumulates billions in hours.

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Hello wayne a basic economics question i wanted to ask.I read somewhere you mentioned government take taxes just to control inflation.If we assume government don't take taxes and fund by printing more what consequences it have inflation i understand more money chasing same goods but what other effects it will have?? MMT people says currency is value you give it too like $1 = 80 indian rupees but $1 = 15319 indonesian rupiya....so thier is no fx impact from it? You agree with this? If thier is no fx impact why srilanka had crisis recently? I know you keep up with economic news...so i thought you might have answer to it.

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

      You don't know the answer to this wayne? I thought you had good grasp on economics and understand MMT...

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Hello wayne Have you ever thought how capital markets work in specific country? Like in india we run trade defecit in goods, services (current account) but have good amount coming through capital accounts.I never understood how these works.... essentially this is balance of payment concept.But i wonder why can't just india print more and create a private fund and buy in capital markets when foreign holders decide to sell in capital markets??

  • @himanshisingla1031
    @himanshisingla1031 Před rokem

    Hello wayne Does large government defecit without getting back in taxes receipts de-value currency?Yes government that print its own currency can spend as much it want but doesn't it devalues its currency if they get in this loop?

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Wayne i have a important question to ask in this...what if primary dealers or banks don't have enough reserves in first place to buy it..then how fed can monetize it? In your example you assume banks have enough reserves to take leftover auction after private players done with buying...but what if primary dealers don't have enough reserves to buy it in first place??

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před rokem

      Hi Shubham, I think you have enough info to answer this for yourself. If banks have little/no reserves to buy treasury debt, what would happen to the interest rate on Treasury debt? If banks can’t lend to Treasury, they can’t lend to each other. What would happen to the interbank interest rate? How would the central bank respond to these changes in the interest rate? ;) (TLDR, this is why MMTers say gov/cb must spend first before borrowing currency)

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican i understand cb will defend thier target rate for these changes. But i don't understand one thing you say here if thier is not enough reserves in system banks can't lend reserves to each other but mostly banks enter into private contracts with each other to create money keeping loan contract as collateral.Where reserves here comes into picture when they don't even transfer reserves to each other.Like now in india we have 4 percent liquidity ratio and 19 percent SLR (statutory liquidity ratio ).I really don't understand reserves play in all this.If you could help me with an example how they comes into play into all this will be helpful.Thanks.

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican i don't understand main part is how thier can be scarcity of reserves when reserves are not even needed for creating money! I am surely missing something sorry for confusion.how reserves even keep rates effected when they don't even need reserves...i have read few white papers on this too but not sure what they mean...they also say same things reserves keep interest rate intact.

  • @rickvisser1986
    @rickvisser1986 Před rokem

    Great video!! Thank you for showing this weird illusion of money creating and ownership. So clear and simple. Great great video thank you!

  • @bruncibanci
    @bruncibanci Před rokem

    Great video as all the others Wayne, thank you very much for your insights. I'm sure you know it and I can imagine you were just waiting for this comment so here it is... :D Due to all the logic, IOR is supposed to set a floor to FFR, but instead, it has set a ceiling that has held 99% of the time since 2008. I have some explanations for that but I'd still love to hear how would you explain it in case you catch a couple of minutes. :))

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před rokem

      Hey Bruno, This is a really good question, and I don’t have a good answer. Here is a series of charts we can use to communicate: fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/02/visualizing-the-feds-new-monetary-policy-tools/? You are correct, rather then IOR acting as a floor, the effective federal fund rate fluctuates above and below the IOR rate. In fact the IOR rate acts more like an anchor…representing the center of the Feds target range. But why would the FFR ever go below IOR rate? I don’t know. It could have something to do with the fact not all institutions have access to over night interest on reserves, and must use the reverse repo facility to park their idle reserves. I could have something to do with a much reduced need for Federal Funds Loans. QE flooded the banking system with reserves, which in turn cause a significant decline in the activity in Federal Funds markets. I have not put enough research into this topic to give a smart answer. I’d love to hear your perspective?!

  • @bruncibanci
    @bruncibanci Před rokem

    Wayne this is a phenomenal explanation and it still holds the water. ''Underground demand'' at the bottom right cracked me up :D, and the ''human mind'' box placed that cherry on top. Well done and hope to see more from you in the future.

  • @shourjyaghosh2753
    @shourjyaghosh2753 Před rokem

    this is all invalid. Interbank settlement needs reserves to work. BofA doesn't have any reserves to lend WF. This video is like saying if Person A owes Person B money, Person A can take out a loan from Person B and everyone's books are settled. PERSON B DOESN'T HAVE ANYTHING TO FUND THE LOAN; MONEY ISN'T MAGIC and none of this circular funding BS is valid!! And even if person B had funds to loan person A to cover A's negative position, it would simply replace the assets and liabilities on their respective balance sheets

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před rokem

      Asynchronous net settlement…this is exactly how it works. Why do you think they call Central Banks “lender of last resort?” It’s because the system works fine so long as banks lend their surplus reserve position to deficit banks. Sorry to burst your bubble :/ In the video I am isolating asynchronous transactions, so viewers can better understand how it works. It is a learning tool. In reality, reserves are needed for synchronous transactions that are not intermediated by a clearing house. Although it varies, upwards of 90% of transactions are settled *async*, so I believe the learning tool is relevant in understanding that context.

    • @shourjyaghosh2753
      @shourjyaghosh2753 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican asynchronous net settlement, the use of a clearing house, banks lending reserves in the Fed funds market is all fine…what’s totally wrong is how a bank that is OWED reserves can “lend” to the very bank that owes it reserves. Even without the accounting it makes zero sense logically. Btw the interbank market doesn’t deny central bank is LOLR, it just means that yes actually reserve ownership needs to be transferred at the end of the day from bank to bank

    • @shourjyaghosh2753
      @shourjyaghosh2753 Před rokem

      If I owe you money, and you otherwise have no spare cash (reserves in BofA’s case) you can’t lend me money you don’t have and balance both of our books. WF’s Fed funds loan would need to come from a bank C like JPM that actually has spare reserves.

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před rokem

      @@shourjyaghosh2753 Why is that contract difficult to believe? If you owe me money, and we agree you’ll pay me tomorrow and add on small interest fee. Is money exchanged at the moment of that agreement? No. What if the next day, you still owe me money, and we agree you’ll pay me next day and a small fee. Is money exchanged at the moment of that agreement? No. How many days can we make this agreement, postponing settlement in currency? If ‘I’m earning an income from you in interest payments, I might continue the arrangement forever. What else am I going to do with idle reserves? The system collapses when I decide to break the cycle, I won’t lend to you anymore. Then CBs step in and lend to the deficit bank. See?

    • @shourjyaghosh2753
      @shourjyaghosh2753 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican if I used credit to buy something off of you, yes you’ve swapped some asset (let’s say you sold me a computer) with my debt instrument on the asset side of your balance sheet. You’re right that this could continue on and on until you lose faith in my ability to repay. The video is very different. In making a loan (and the borrower using it for a transaction), WF has added a liability onto BofA’s balance sheet. The example with me and you is a simple asset swap for you, I didn’t add to your liabilities. BofA is owed money; one and only one thing can settle this as a final transaction, which is reserves “moving” from WF to BofA. Even if BofA had reserves to lend WF, it would be a debt rollover with WF still owing reserves. Nothing in your video can be considered settled or final in any way. That’s all I’m saying.

  • @LeleLiveTime
    @LeleLiveTime Před rokem

    Dear Wayne, thank you so much for this another very interesting and straightforward video. Tbh this is the best explanation of Forex-Accounting on CZcams. I'm currently working on that topic at university and still struggle to find sources that clearly explain the Forex-Accounting system like you did. Do you have any recommendations for articles that describe and support this system?

    • @somjithazra
      @somjithazra Před rokem

      I am also looking from the same.. if you find any interesting article on this subject please let me know...

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Hello Wayne again,can you expand more on risk involved on creating deposit as you mentioned in video.Where can from wells fargo get funding if someone decide to move that deposit to another bank.

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    You say that when treasury spends back those reverse it increases bank liability on deposit side with same amount of reserves as before so it can increase bank reserves demand so fed will do OMO operations again and buy new debt issued by treasury? So this is debt monetization and money creating step? Bcoz i saw somewhere else video it shows something else.Vidoe is of warren mosler.

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    But what if emerging market like India run large defecits? Since foreign trade is done in dollars won't it have implications for currency?

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Thier is one flawed in this fed only do transaction with primary dealers.

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před rokem

      Primary dealers buy in the primary market for treasuries…directly from Treasury during auctions. The Fed buys/sells treasuries in the ‘secondary’ market. Anyone can list their treasuries for sale in this market. Could be banks, investment funds, or average citizens.

  • @himanshisingla1031
    @himanshisingla1031 Před rokem

    This is so right explanation! Banking sector provides funding temporarily to the government to buy issuance which is then funded by deposits. During QE,the fed will then take the interest rate risk from the bank by swapping it for reserves.

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    This is wrong to say too treasury always has zero reserves! What about TGA account of treasury at fed? They have tax collected money in it!

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před rokem

      1) I clearly state that the consolidated gov balance sheets is a theoretical framework. 2) I *do* show TGA drain reserves before spending, exactly as I do in the separated balance sheets. 3) go look at TGA balance history on FRED, it shows the balance doesn’t change much except during crisis. So you can set the TGA balance at any level, including zero, and it will not have meaningful influence on the quantity of reserves in the systems. Typically the Treasury draws down its account throughout the day, and then fills it back up to the level it started with…Ie the net reserve position of treasury is nearly always zero!

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican but during April tax season TGA do fill up.Draining reserves from banking sector to TGA

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před rokem

      @@shubhamsingla9340 taxes are collected on a weekly, monthly, and quarterly basis. April deadlines are for individuals filing their tax documents, and very few owe taxes at that time. You may see a small bump in tax revenue but not likely, since many get tax rebates. Either way it wouldn’t indicate that Treasury is draining reserves in any meaningful way. So long as Treasury is running a deficit, tax revenues are never enough to cause a reserve drain. Treasury would need to run a surplus to have a meaningful impact on the quantity of reserves. But remember, if Treasury drains enough reserves to impact the interbank rate, the CB will just add reserves to offset the drain and defend their target rate.

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican i still don't understand if thier are abundant reserves why asset prices are going down with QT going on.I see QT as marginal buyer as federal reserve is now selling assets who we're buying once ( during QE) that's why asset prices are going down.

    • @michealgallup98
      @michealgallup98 Před rokem

      ​​​​@@shubhamsingla9340ey thanks for this video and I had a question an MMTer is saying this vid proves their statement that our tax revenues are not carried forward to the treasury and we just delete the tax money and just poof money and print T bills to pay for our govt obligations, is that accurate and this person thinks your agreement in how mmt thinks about the treasury and fed together equalling a balance of zero always is actually how they do things but you are saying that's just your opinion and not actually how it works. Which the facts point to us showing tax revenues going to the treasury but that would mean the treasury and fed wouldn't together equal zero then disproving you saying mmt gets the conceptionalization right. The major reasons why I don't think the mmt claim is accurate that we just delete the tax revenues and just poof money/issue debt to pay for obligations is bec that makes it so confusing as to how do they determine how much debt/how much poofing of the money to do for their day to day obligations for the year when it makes it so much easier to carry the money forward and have that run through and now you take the rest out that you need by issuing debt. And the fact we have articles showing record breaking tax revenues in the treasury disproves that bec if we just deleted the taxes we collect then we wouldn't carry them forward to the treasury to then just delete it so that MMTers don't look incorrect. And is there any way we finance govt obligations (ie military Healthcare govt spending bills) by increasing the money supply or do we just use money already in the system like with tax revenues and issueing T bills? Because I know QE we basically print money that then goes to banks to encourage lending and if it gets loaned out we have increased the money supply. There has to be other ways we increased the money supply before we implemented QE but in what ways do we do it now?

  • @shubhamsingla9340
    @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

    Wayne i really don't understand one thing i thought fed only deal with primary dealers to buy and sell treasury etc! But you saying they transit straight with memeber bank.

    • @TheBalancedAmerican
      @TheBalancedAmerican Před rokem

      Most primary dealers are banks. Here is a current list. www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealers.html Fed buys treasury debt in secondary markets, not the primary market. Primary dealers are the entities who are responsible for making a market for treasury securities.

    • @shubhamsingla9340
      @shubhamsingla9340 Před rokem

      @@TheBalancedAmerican wayne what is your opnion about this mosler way how debt is monetised.Here is link to video where he explains. czcams.com/video/480sGei5ZsA/video.html

  • @RossDavis777
    @RossDavis777 Před rokem

    I would love to see a follow-up to these videos with your take on exactly what happened in the last 2-3yrs. Better still if you could distil the difference between Lacy Hunt's, Lyn Alden's, Jeff Snider's and your own view would be very helpful as they've all got variations on the theme, especially Snider who seems to have some rare, but powerful arguments in general, but not one of them fully debunk the other and in some cases seem to contradict across videos and time. It seems to me your explanations are more specific and visual. Thanks a mil

  • @IllIl
    @IllIl Před rokem

    My mind is getting blown as I'm watching these videos of yours. This is answering fundamental questions that I've had in the back of my mind for years. Thank you!

  • @IllIl
    @IllIl Před rokem

    This is so interesting, man. Thank you for the clear explanation! It's baffling to me that this super fundamental stuff about the world is not taught in school. Thanks! 3:50 So accounts receivable, does the bank take on the risk that this amount will balance in the future with the accounts payable on the foreign account? For example, if the transaction takes place at an exchange rate of 3:1 but the R$ is strengthening and later it is 2:1 - does that mean that the bank loses out because the 100 US$ accounts payable is only worth 200 R$ instead of the 300 R$ that is recorded in accounts receivable? Also, does that mean that domestic banks have the ability to "create" local currency in the accounts receivable, as long as it is backed by the equivalent value foreign currency in accounts payable offshore? Because that accounts receivable amount seems to have appeared from out of nowhere (from the point of view of the Brazilian domestic banking system)